Stay-at-home orders and lockdown measures helped greatly limit the spread of coronavirus in 11 European countries from the start of the epidemic to May 4th, according to a new modeling paper published in Nature on Monday. 

Some 3.1 million deaths were averted across the study countries thanks to “non-pharmaceutical measures” such as lockdowns and social distancing policies, according to the study.

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization said that the disease was accelerating in South Asia and Latin America, even as European countries saw declines and began lifting lockdown measures. Switzerland, which reported only 20 new cases on Sunday, reopened restaurants, nightclubs, and red-light district services on June 6, and allowed mass demonstrations of up to 300.

“Yesterday, more than 136,000 cases were reported, the most in a single day so far. Almost 75% of yesterday’s cases come from 10 countries, mostly in the Americas and South Asia,” said WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

“We’re seeing acceleration of disease now in Central and South America,” said WHO Health Emergencies Executive Director Mike Ryan. “And we’re seeing a similar acceleration and path for South Asia.”

In his strongest statement to date, the WHO Director-General also expressed support for worldwide demonstrations against police brutality and racism, sparked by the death of a black man, George Floyd, after an officer put him in a knee hold in the United States.

“WHO fully supports equality and the global movement against racism. We reject discrimination of all kinds. We encourage all those protesting around the world to do so safely, as much as possible,” said Dr Tedros, the first African leader of the UN’s health agency.

“As much as possible, keep at least 1 metre from others, clean your hands, cover your cough and wear a mask if you attend a protest. We remind all people to stay home if you are sick and contact a health care provider,” he added.

As the US entered its third week of protests, countries around the world have rallied in support of the movement. Similar demonstrations drew masses of people in Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Korea, Spain, and other countries.

Nature Paper Finds Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Lowered Reproductive Number, R0

Only 3.2-4.0% of the total population, or between 12 to 15 million people, were estimated to be infected in 11 countries from the beginning of the epidemic in Europe until May 4th, according to the Nature study.

“Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions and lockdown in particular have had a large effect on reducing transmission. Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control,” the authors, a group of researchers from Imperial College London and Oxford, wrote in the analysis.

Non-pharmaceutical measures were able to successfully lower the reproduction number R0, which estimates the average number of susceptible people that will contract the disease from one infected person. When the R0 drops below 1, the epidemic will decline. 

 “Current interventions have been sufficient to drive the reproduction number R0 below 1, and achieve epidemic control,” according to the authors. 

The analysis found that the average R0 was reduced by 82% across the 11 countries, dropping to 0.66 compared to 3.8 at the beginning of the study period, before any “non-pharmaceutical interventions” were put in place. R0 values in individual countries ranged from 0.44 in Norway to 0.82 in Belgium.

The authors used death data from the European Centers for Disease Control to estimate infections across Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

Pandemic Hotspots Shift From Europe + US to Latin America + South Asia

New infections are growing at an alarming rate in several countries in South America. The trends are real, not just due to increased testing and better surveillance, according to Mike Ryan.

In the past day, about 70% of COVID-19 deaths were in the Americas. Brazil overtook the United States in recording the highest number of new cases late last week, and 60% of the world’s new cases were reported in the Americas.

“I would say right now the epidemic in Central and South America is the most complex of all of the situations we face globally.. We’re seeing from Mexico all the way to Chile is an increasing pattern across the Americas across Latin America, with some notable exceptions,” said Ryan on Monday. “I think it’s a time of great concern.

“It’s not one country, it’s many many countries experiencing very severe epidemics [similar to] what we saw in Europe and North America….There’s been an increase of about 50% of cases in Guatemala over the last week, with a worrying over 100% increase in the number of fatalities [for example].”

“The pandemic epicentre moved from China & East Asia to Europe & North America, now to South Asia & Latin America. [We’re] still in the growth phase in many countries,” tweeted  Devi Sridhar, Professor & Chair of Global Public Health at University of Edinburgh.

Pakistan, now reporting the highest number of new cases per day in WHO’s Eastern Mediterranean region, reported 4,960 new cases on Sunday.

Some 70% of new cases in WHO’s Southeast Asian Region were recorded in India, now hosting the 6th highest number of COVID-19 cases. The country reported 11,000 new cases in the past 24 hours, some 500 more than the previous day.

The New Delhi’s Department of Health, Family and Welfare overrode a controversial order restricting hospital services for COVID-19 to residents of Delhi on Monday. The order, published on Sunday, limited hospital services for COVID-19 to “bona fide residents of the National Capital Territory of Delhi” – leaving Indian migrants in the capital. About 40% of New Delhi’s population are migrants, and the capital has the highest concentration of inter-state migrants compared to any other region in India.

In the WHO European region, half of Sunday’s new cases were in the Russian Federation, which reported 9000 cases. New cases in Russia have plateaued around 8,000-9,000 per day since mid-May. 

Still, the Russian Federation plans to lift its months-long lockdown starting Tuesday, said Moscow’s Mayor Sergei Sobyanin on Monday. “Moscow can practically get back to its usual rhythm of life,” said Sobyanin on his personal blog.

On Monday, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern declared the country ‘virus-free’, and announced that virtually all COVID-19 restrictions will be dropped reported Reuters. New Zealand last reported new cases of COVID-19 on 19 May, but the country has still taken a cautious approach to reopening, which has been largely supported by the public. 

Image Credits: S. Lustig Vijay/HP-Watch, Flickr: Nicola, Johns Hopkins CSSE, Tasleem Ul Haq.

The World Health Organization finally appears poised to recommend wider public use of masks as an additional measure to prevent transmission of COVID-19 – after months of hesitation while countries took unilateral action mandating face coverings, particularly for busy shops, transport systems and public settings.

The WHO move, announced at a Wednesday press briefing, follows new recommendations by its Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Hazards (STAG-IH),  supporting ” mask use by the general public in the community to decrease the risk of infection.”

In another statement at Wednesday’s briefing, WHO’s Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan, said that enrollment would resume in WHO co-sponsored clinical trials of the anti-malarial and lupus drug hydroxychloroquine – after a review of the evidence so far found no significant rise in mortality among people using the treatment.

“The advisory committee of both Solidarity and Recovery have recommended that the trials can continue,” said Swaminathan, referring to the consortiums that are guiding the research with WHO. “We hope that the ongoing trials will continue until we have definite answers. That is what the world needs.” 

WHO suspended the trial last week, in the wake of a Lancet study that seemed to find a higher mortality rates among people taking the drug – although the observational study was later criticized for not adequately taking into account the baseline condition of the patients considered in its analysis of death rates.

Said Swaminathan: “The only way to get definite answers is to do well conducted randomized trials, to see which [treatments] will reduce illness and infection rates in the communities, we should be guided by the science and the evidence.”

STAG Report and Lancet Study Tip the Balance on Mask Recommendations

The STAG advisory group recommendations were released shortly before a WHO-sponsored meta-analysis published by The Lancet, concluded that public use of masks could be an effective infection control measure – although there remains a dearth of robust studies on the topic. 

“Face mask use could result in a large reduction in risk of infection…., with stronger associations with N95 or similar respirators compared with disposable surgical masks or similar (eg, reusable
12–16-layer cotton masks,” the Lancet study concluded.

The STAG advisory group particularly recommended the use of masks in settings where there is “active and widespread community transmission occurring with high attack rates in the population… [for] activities in closed environments without efficient air exchanges, such as commuting on public transportation and over-the-counter consultations in pharmacies.” 

Public use of facial coverings can also be useful “as part of a transitional package from a ‘confinement’ or ‘stay-at-home’ order to demonstrate solidarity, community empowerment, understanding of the seriousness of the situation,” according to the STAG note.

WHO’s COVID-19 Technical lead Maria Van Kerkove said that updated guidance would be forthcoming in light of the STAG Committee’s recommendations. 

“We are planning to update and release new guidance on use of masks in the coming days,” said Van Kerkhove, in response to a query from Health Policy Watch at a Wednesday press briefing. 

Masks  – As Part of A Continuum of Management

However, Health Emergencies Executive Director Mike Ryan stressed, “We see masks as part of a continuum of risk management, not as an alternative to public health interventions, physical distancing, or surveillance.

“As we move back to work and back to school, everyone is concerned [about] how I can reduce risk. How I can manage the risk to me or my family?

“With regard to the use of masks at the community level, they would mainly be used for the purposes of source control. In other words, [they are recommended] for people who may be infectious, reducing the chances that they will infect someone else,” said Ryan. But mounting evidence of asymptomatic transmission makes it impossible for some people to know if they are indeed infectious or not, and thus the move to wider public mask use may be justified, he acknowledged. 

The STAG recommendations also underline that the use of masks helps prevent transmission of the virus by asymptomatic or presymptomatic individuals – those who may be infected but not yet showing symptoms. 

“The primary role of masks (of any kind) in the community is to reduce exposure risk for others from infected persons in the pre-symptomatic period,” the STAG-IH group writes. “Infections from such persons are not considered a major driver of the pandemic, but there are concerns that viral loads are highest during the early phase of the disease.”

The WHO move towards wider use of masks has been slow. In the early days of the pandemic, Ryan, Kerkhove and others repeatedly stressed that masks should be limited to health clinics or caring for a sick person at home.  Widespread public use of masks in Asia was described by Ryan as a “cultural” habit – although that habit also clearly originated in the Asian experience with previous pandemics such as the 2003 SARS.

The WHO message evolved slowly, as  the evidence grew about potential virus transmisison by people with no symptoms, and through simple actions like speaking or singing. The number of countries recommending or requiring facial coverings in public also grew well beyond Asia to Africa, where public health leaders stressed that social distancing is almost impossible, as well as more affluent countries such as Hungary, the Czech Republic, Israel, and some US states.

Mask use has become even more significant as countries begin to lift stay-at-home orders. Israel, for instance, which had one of the lowest per capita mortality rates in the height of the pandemic, has seen a rapid rise in cases after lifting its lockdown, and has since strengthened its enforcement of requirements to don masks in schools, stores and other public places. In the US, protestors have been circulating advice via social media to wear masks while attending the massive rallies protesting the death of a Minnesota black man, George Floyd, while in police custody. The mass gatherings have put millions of people into much closer contact with each other in the world’s pandemic epicentre, albeit in outdoors environments. 

Image Credits: Jade Lee , Cross River State Primary Health Care, Nigeria , Jenny Salita.