‘Gulf War 3’ Threatens Progress on Climate and Air Pollution
Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil depot has caused massive fires, thick smoke and black acid rain.

The 12th Better Air Quality conference in Bangkok, which opens on Wednesday, is the first large climate and air quality gathering since the US and Israel attacked Iran, triggering an oil and gas-energy crisis. 

BANGKOK – The ‘Gulf War 3’ threatens to slow down climate action and the move to cleaner air. However, in the first major climate conference since the war began, experts are banking on market forces and the cost-benefit of countries not just sticking to the current climate and air quality ambitions but scaling these up. 

“There’s no doubt it [fighting in the Gulf] will slow progress. However, the fact is that the market forces are ultimately going to drive things. There’s only so much political will can do,” Nathan Borgford-Parnell, scientific affairs lead at the UN’s Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), told Health Policy Watch.

He was speaking on the eve of the Better Air Quality (BAQ) conference, which is being held in Bangkok from Wednesday until Friday (11-13 March), bringing together scientists, funders, think-tanks, and civil society.

“The United States is really boosting coal now. But coal energy is decreasing rapidly in the US, not because of some green policy, but because of the economics of it. Renewable energies are cheaper now. And those economics are not going to change,” Borgford-Parnell explained.

The conference is being organised by Clean Air Asia, with co-organisers CCAC, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). 

Cleaner solutions protect health

Bjarne Pedersen, executive director of Clean Air Asia, said that while there can be tension between environmental ambition and short-term economic pressures, this can be resolved by taking a longer-term outlook.

“Clean air solutions increasingly show that protecting health, improving productivity, and supporting economic growth can go hand in hand,” said Pedersen.

He sees the conference as an opportunity to “elevate air quality from a relatively niche environmental issue to a cross-cutting investment priority” that delivers benefits across sectors. 

Glynda Bathan-Baterina, deputy executive director of Clean Air Asia, concedes that air pollution control measures are “often seen as a cost rather than an investment”.

She lists the “positive returns on clean air investments” as “improved health, increased crop yields, more livelihoods from green industries, and greater competitiveness of cities.”

Later this year, the CCAC is expected to update its report of 25 science-based solutions, making a strong case for local and national economic benefits. However, ADB refused to comment on the issue on the grounds that it is “politically sensitive.” 

Nathan Borgford-Parnell (right), scientific affairs lead, at the UN Climate and Clean Air Coalition, and panellists at an event before the Better Air Quality meeting.

Health risks from air pollution

Over eight million deaths are attributed to air pollution annually. If there’s a silver lining, Borgford-Parnell assesses that this number could remain stable.

On the one hand, air pollution, in particular PM2.5 fine particulate matter pollution, has been decreasing because of economic forces, and countries like India and China are taking steps to reduce it, he says. 

On the other hand, the rapidly ageing global population, – particularly in the Asia-Pacific – is more susceptible to illness and premature death.

The WHO’s World Health Assembly and its Global Conference on Air Pollution and Health last year set a “voluntary target” to cut premature deaths caused by air pollution by 50% by 2040. Toxic air is linked to millions of cases of heart attacks, childhood asthma, COPD or chronic lung disease, diabetes, strokes, dementia and lung cancer. 

Air pollution’s link to diabetes and dementia is also a growing concern. It worsens the complications of diabetes, and increases the risk of people developing type 2 diabetes through mechanisms such as inflammation and oxidative stress, which can cause cell damage. 

With dementia, air pollution increases risk through similar inflammatory pathways and by damaging blood vessels. This can lead to vascular dementia and increase the likelihood of Alzheimer’s disease. The tiny particles from pollution can also directly enter the brain, potentially causing cellular damage. 

At a Better Air Quality 2026 side-event. UNCC, Bangko

‘Together for clear skies’

The theme for this 12th BAQ is Together for Clear Skies. But the ‘together’ part is hard to achieve. Air pollution is a transboundary issue, which means that one region or one country is often polluted by air from outside its jurisdiction. 

The World Bank points out that the governance systems across nations in the most polluted region of the world – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan – remain largely “siloed, reactive, and compliance-oriented rather than preventive”. 

Its report, A Breath of Change, documents the cross-border crisis in the northern belt of South Asia, across the plains and the Himalayan foothills, which is home to about one billion people.

Around 68% of the pollution in Nepal’s Terai region, for example, originates in other countries. Even in areas with the highest local contribution, such as Kathmandu Valley (Nepal), Uttar Pradesh (India), and Dhaka (Bangladesh), over a third of the pollution can be from other countries. 

The hosts have highlighted at least four regional agreements on air pollution control. Two for South Asia are the Malé Declaration (1998) and Thimpu Outcome (2024),  and two for South East Asia are the ASEAN Agreement and Asia-Pacific Regional Action Programme on Air Pollution (RAPAP), both adopted in 2022.

But progress, especially in South Asia, has been slow.

“Countries like the PRC (China) have shown that economic growth can be decoupled from its environmental impacts, including air pollution. In seven years, PRC was able to reduce PM2.5 pollution by more than 50%, while growing its economy,” says Bathan-Baterina. 

The hosts hope that financing discussions at the conference will demonstrate that clean air solutions can attract investment.

“Many governments already have air quality plans but face challenges in translating them into finance-able programs,” Pedersen says. 

By highlighting the economic returns and health savings associated with cleaner air, the conference aims to strengthen the case for sustained investment. Despite being closely linked, air quality and climate action are still treated by many as two separate buckets. But Pedersen points out that linking air quality initiatives to climate finance frameworks can help unlock new funding streams for cleaner air.

Image Credits: UN-CCAC., Chetan Bhattacharija .

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