As wildfires rage across continents, heatwaves claim thousands of lives and ocean temperatures shatter records, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Friday that the climate crisis has entered “overdrive.”

“This is only a warm-up act,” he said. “El Niño is strengthening, adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas.”

New forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) show El Niño, the naturally occurring climate pattern that amplifies global temperatures and disrupts rainfall, is developing into a strong event at unprecedented speed.

The Niño 3.4 index, a key measure of Pacific warming, surged from 0.5°C in April to 1.6°C in June. Sea-surface temperatures in key monitoring regions are forecast to average nearly 3°C above normal between August and October.

The WMO projects the event will continue intensifying into November, meaning the extremes already battering communities worldwide are likely a prelude rather than a peak. Through October, nearly every land area on Earth is expected to be hotter than normal.

“Fossil fuels are fanning the flames of this crisis. Expansion must stop,” Guterres said. “More coal, oil and gas will lead to a more combustible future.”

“Unless we act, to protect people and tackle the root cause of the crisis, the dangers will become deadlier still,” he warned. “The warm-up act is over. We cannot afford to wait for the main event.”

Guterres called extreme heat “the silent killer,” warning that even that description may understate the crisis. Heat deaths are vastly undercounted worldwide, he said, with many fatalities never recorded as heat-related even when heat plays a decisive role.

“Behind all of the numbers are people,” he said. “Families trapped in unsafe homes. Workers forced to choose between their health and their income. Children unable to learn.”

El Niño continues to intensify

El Niño and La Niña are naturally occurring phases that are characterised by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and affect weather patterns globally.

The WMO had warned of a strong El Niño following a hot summer that left thousands dead in Europe alone, and now is hoping to give countries a heads-up to prepare.

“This El Niño, developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold. The decisions we make today will shape the impacts we experience tomorrow,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

Currently, though, countries continue to invest in fossil fuels, and pension funds also invest in such projects instead of clean technology. “The hope is that the public, who are being impacted by these extreme climate-related events, that the public will demand urgent and ambitious climate action, and action not only to protect them, but also action to address the root cause,” said a UN official as part of background comments made to the media.

Also read: As El Niño Intensifies – WMO Warns Policymakers to Brace for Escalating Impacts on Health Worldwide

Extreme heat and rainfall – a deadly combination

WMO forecasts above-average temperatures across most land areas globally. Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, Southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand are expected to be worst-hit by extreme heat.

“Every city and country should have heat-health action plans, early warning systems and public health measures that reach every community in time,” Guterres said.

Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, Southern Europe, Western North America and Southeastern South America.

In contrast, drier-than-normal conditions are more likely over the Indian subcontinent; Southern and eastern Australia; Southern Central America and parts of the Caribbean; Northwestern South America; and Northern Europe.

“The impacts are accelerating, as we’re seeing in real time. Solutions are available, as we’ve seen over the course of the last two years since the Secretary General’s call to action was launched, but what is really missing is the political will to act at the speed and scale this moment demands,” the UN official speaking on background said.

Pointing to the recent geo-political tensions between the US and Iran, UN officials are also highlighted how clean energy can help countries be sovereign. Clean energy, supported especially by China, has helped Cuba and Pakistan rapidly deploy solar energy to tide against their serious energy crunch. This shift highlights how market forces and people’s needs can shape climate action even if political will lags.

Image Credits: UN Photo, WMO, WMO.