Paris Agreement Global Temperature Limit to be Breached Within Four Years
Global temperature
Industrial fossil fuel emissions are one of the primary causes of global warming.

In the next four years, there is a 66% chance that global temperatures will rise by at least 1.5°C – the limit set by the Paris Agreement. There is also a 98% likelihood that the world will live through the warmest year on record. 

This is according to the latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday.

The WMO report points out that global temperatures are set to reach unprecedented levels in the next five years due to greenhouse gases and an El Niño event expected to develop in the coming months. 

“The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900,” the report states.

The average global temperature in 2022 was around 1.15°C higher than the average recorded during the 1850-1900 period. 

The benchmark of comparison is the average temperature during pre-industrial 1850-1900, before fossil fuel emissions started. 

Will the Paris Agreement limits be breached?

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” Dr Petteri Taalas, the secretary-general of the WMO said in a press release. 

“This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared”.

In 2015, world leaders at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris reached an agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to contain the global temperature increase to 2°C in this century. The leaders further agreed to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C and to review their commitments every five years.  

When the Paris Agreement was signed, the chance of global temperatures temporarily exceeding 1.5°C was close to zero. However, the likelihood of the temperature exceeding 1.5°C has only increased since. 

The third global stocktake is scheduled to take place in 2023, where all the parties to the Paris Agreement will take inventory of the progress towards meeting the goals set out in the agreement. 

What is driving up the temperature?

The sharp increase in the emission of heat-trapping greenhouse gases is one of the two major factors pushing up the global average temperature. 

Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane trap the sun’s heat within the atmosphere, thus increasing the temperature. While these gases are present in the atmosphere naturally, human activity and industrial emissions increase the quantity of these gases. 

The other major factor outlined in the report is El Niño. An El Niño weather pattern anticipated later this year is expected to drive up the global temperature in 2024, breaking the record set due to a strong El Niño in 2016.

El Niño is a phenomenon in which the ocean surface becomes warm in certain parts of the Pacific Ocean. El Niño phases are expected to last for around four years. The last time El Niño was active was in 2016 when the global average temperature was 1.26°C higher than the pre-industrial average.  

Regions like Indonesia, the Amazon and central America are expected to receive less rainfall compared with the average rainfall received in these regions during 1991-2020. On the other hand, regions like the Sahel (in Africa), northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia are expected to receive higher than average rainfall in the May-to- September period between 2023 and 2027.  

The report was released ahead of the World Meteorological Congress, scheduled to take place in Geneva, Switzerland, from 22 May to 2 June. 

Image Credits: Photo by Marcin Jozwiak on Unsplash.

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