Tens of millions of women and girls in sub-Saharan Africa will experience “catastrophic levels” of intimate partner violence because the world is failing to make progress on the climate crisis, according to new projections by UNFPA, the United Nations sexual and reproductive health agency.

The report, jointly produced by UNFPA, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and the University of Vienna, found that rising global temperature is increasing rates of intimate partner violence.

“Extreme heat threatens the safety and well-being of the most vulnerable women and girls all across Africa,” said UNFPA Executive Director Dr Natalia Kanem. “Heat stress can put the health of pregnant women and their babies at risk, increasing the chance of preterm birth and stillbirth,” she added.

This report is part of the growing body of evidence linking climate change and intimate partner violence. In June 2022 a review that looked at existing literature on the subject was published in The Lancet, but for many regions the evidence base is severely limited.

Climate change is known to exacerbate existing stressors like economic ones. In regions where women are already vulnerable, worsening household economic situation and rising frustration led to a rise in violence against women, the research has so far established.

For those working in disaster management, this is already a well-known phenomenon where violence against women and young girls tends to rise in the aftermath of a disaster. With climate change leading to a rise in disasters, a rise in violence against women is also being noted globally.

“The climate crisis has also led to shocking levels of violence in the home – an impact often overlooked by policymakers,” Kanem said.

Violence set to triple in sub-Saharan Africa

The number of people experiencing intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa will nearly triple from 48 million in 2015 to 140 million in 2060, in the worst-case scenario where emissions rise and temperatures warm by more than 4°C by the end of the century. This number also takes into account the stalling of socioeconomic development in the region.

Studies show that extreme temperatures and heat waves can drive up aggression and intimate partner violence. The collapse of agriculture, water scarcity and housing insecurity is a further trigger — leading to increased conflict and risk of women and girls suffering physical and emotional abuse. Natural disasters linked to warming temperatures trigger forced displacement, which is associated with higher levels of intimate partner violence.

In parts of sub-Saharan Africa, which is on the frontlines of the climate crisis, more than half of women and girls reported experiencing intimate partner violence in the previous 12 months.

Climate action can limit harm

This spike in violence can be averted if countries work to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, and pursue the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the report said.

At present, the world is off track on both these goals. Global temperatures have breached the 1.5 degrees Celsius for an entire year now, and without drastic changes, the temperatures will continue to rise.

In addition, policymakers currently look at SDG and climate action as either/or choices rather than complementary ones.

The best-case scenario will see the share of women affected by violence in sub-Saharan Africa decline from 24% in 2015 to 14% in 2060. Overall, the difference between climate action success and failure is 1.9 billion preventable cases of intimate partner violence between 2015 and 2060, according to the report.

“UNFPA’s new research points the way forward: decisive climate action needs to build resilience in affected communities, which starts with putting the needs of women and girls first,” Kanem said.

Women and girls who experience intimate partner violence will need access to climate-resilient health care, including medical and psychological support.

UNFPA has asked countries to invest climate finance in health and protection systems that work for women and girls in the future, in the face of increasing climate shocks and displacements.

Countries have also been asked to include the sexual and reproductive health and rights of women and girls –  including the risk of gender-based violence –  in their national climate plans.

Image Credits: Climate Change Impacts and Intimate Partner Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa .