Europe on Course for 120,000 Heat-Related Deaths a Year by 2050
Climate and Health 12/07/2023 •

Europe could face an average of 120,000 premature deaths attributable to heat each summer by 2050 if more effective adaptation plans are not implemented, according to a team of researchers from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal). 

Meanwhile, as record heat was experienced across the world, lawmakers in the European Parliament voted on Wednesday to restore at least 20% of degraded land and sea ecosystems by 2030, despite opposition by several conservative Members of the European Parliament.

Some 68,000 premature heat-related deaths are anticipated by 2030 and 94,000 by 2040, according to the ISGlobal research published in Nature Medicine on Monday. Last summer (2022) was the hottest on record in Europe, and 61,000 people died due to the high temperatures, they said.

“We call on national governments and European agencies to create more ambitious and effective adaptation plans to avoid all these deaths in Europe,” IsGlobal senior researcher Marcos Quijal, who contributed to the study, told Health Policy Watch in an interview.

The study was released on the heels of an announcement last week by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that the first week of July was the hottest week on record for the planet as a whole, highlighting “the far-reaching changes taking place in Earth’s system as a result of human-induced climate change”. 

Europe is experiencing up to 1°C more warming than other continents, Quijal said. The team’s paper raises a red flag about the threat exposure to heat poses, especially to high-risk populations in Europe and globally. 

Italy has the most deaths overall, per capita

The summer of 2022 was the hottest season on record in Europe and included a series of acute heat waves and droughts. Eurostat, the European statistical office, reported unusually high mortality during that summer. 

However this latest report, conducted in collaboration with the French National Institute of Health, provides the first robust estimates of the premature mortality directly attributable to excessive heat, as such. 

The researchers examined mortality data between  2015 and 2022 for 823 regions in 35 European countries, representing 543 million people. Then, using epidemiological models, they predicted temperature-attributable mortality for each region and week of the summer. Specifically, they looked at deaths between 30 May and 4 September 2022, finding 61,672 heat-related deaths with a 95% confidence interval. 

The country with the highest number of heat-attributable deaths over the entire summer of 2022 was Italy (18,010), followed by Spain (11,324) and Germany (8,173). However, when looking at deaths per capita, the top three countries to experience heat-attributable deaths were Italy (295 deaths per million), Greece (280) and Spain (237).

The European average was around 114 deaths per million.

When looking at how hot each country was, France was the warmest country, experiencing temperatures that were 2.43°C above the average values for the period 1991-2020, followed by Switzerland (+2.30°C) and Italy (+2.28°C).

The worst temperatures fell between 11 July and 14 August, causing 63% (38,881) of total heat-related deaths. 

Women and elderly are most at risk

“Climate change projections for the continent indicate that temperatures, and their health impacts, will rise at an accelerated rate unless strong mitigation and adaptation actions are put in place,” the researchers wrote, highlighting that the most vulnerable people are at the most significant risk of premature heat-associated mortality. 

Quijal told Health Policy Watch that more data would still be needed to understand better what makes individuals vulnerable and then target the continent’s plan and policies to assist those people. 

Using epidemiological models to estimate the sex- and age-specific mortality burden associated with the heat, the researchers found that older adults with pre-existing cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, women and socially isolated or socio-economically disadvantaged individuals are at highest risk. 

There were 63% more heat-related deaths in women than men, with women over the age of 80 being the most vulnerable. Moreover, the older people got, the more susceptible they were to heat-related deaths, with 4,822 people under the age of 64 dying in 2022, compared to 9,226 between the ages of 65 and 79 and 36,848 over the age of 80. 

“Our results call for a reevaluation and strengthening of heat surveillance platforms, prevention plans and long-term adaptation strategies,” the researchers concluded.

European lawmakers vote for biodiversity – urban green spaces reduce air pollution and excess heat

On Wednesday, lawmakers in the European Parliament voted 336 to 300 in favor of a bill that will restore at least 20% of degraded land and sea ecosystems by 2030, despite opposition by several conservative MEPs.

Thirteen MEPs abstained in the vote for the Nature Restoration Law, initially proposed by the European Commission in June 2022. 

More than 80% of habitats in Europe are in poor condition, according to the Commission.

This is the first “continent-wide, comprehensive law of its kind,” the European Commission explains on its website. “It is a key element of the EU Biodiversity Strategy, which calls for binding targets to restore degraded ecosystems, in particular those with the most potential to capture and store carbon and to prevent and reduce the impact of natural disasters.”

The Commission said restoring ecosystems would thus help limit global warming.  In cities, green spaces also help mitigate the urban “heat island” impacts of warming, whereby temperatures in cities can be 5-8 °C above surrounding rural areas, due to their large expanses of heat-absorbing concrete. The same green spaces filter and thus reduce air pollution, which can compound the health effects of excess heat. Conservative MEPs, however, who opposed the bill said that it could threaten food security, block new renewable energy projects and put farmers at risk.

In a letter signed by 6,000 researchers and now published as a preprint article, scientists debunked several of the myths presented by the conservative MEPs. For example, they write that “protecting  and  restoring  nature,  and  reducing  the  use  of  agrochemicals  and pollutants, are essential for maintaining long-term production and enhancing food security.” 

Specifically, the bill was supported by MEPs from Europe’s Socialists & Democrats, Left, Greens and Renew Europe parties. MEPs in the European People’s Party, the European Conservatives, Reformists and the Identity and Democracy parties were opposed. 

The European Commission, the European Parliament and the Council of the EU will now start inter-institutional negotiations with EU countries to develop a final set of rules and regulations that must be implemented.

After the vote, rapporteur César Luena (SD, ES), said: “The Nature Restoration Law is an essential piece of the European Green Deal and follows the scientific consensus and recommendations to restore Europe’s ecosystems. Farmers and fishers will benefit from it and it ensures a habitable earth for future generations. “

Image Credits: Pawel Janiak/ Unsplash.

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