Rather than hoarding vaccine supplies, rich countries that ensure global access to a new COVID-19 vaccine will pave the way to a larger reduction in pandemic related deaths worldwide, according to a new model developed by the Boston-based Northeastern University.

Their findings reinforce the argument the World Health Organization and other global health leaders that vaccine nationalism will boomerang, slowing down the progress combatting the pandemic.

Researchers at the Northeastern University MOBS Lab created two model scenarios: one in which 2 billion doses of a vaccine is monopolised by 50 high-income countries, and one in which the drug is distributed based on a country’s poupulation.

Both scenarios were run with two vaccines: one that had 80% and one 65% efficacy in terms of protective potential. A vaccine with a minimum efficacy of 50% could provide herd immunity, according to a separate study published in The Lancet.

The Northeastern University model found that if the 50 wealthiest countries stockpiled a vaccine with 80% efficacy, only 33% of the deaths that would otherwise occur that year could be averted, compared to 61% if the vaccine were to be distributed equitably. The same findings occurred in the case of the less efficient vaccine, where by hoarding would prevent 30% of deaths as compared to worldwide distribution, which would prevent 57% of deaths.

The study indicates that the planned COVAX vaccine facility, co-sponsored by Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance and the World Health Organization, could be an effective means of minimising the total number of coronavirus deaths across all countries.  See more details here.

Image Credits: Moderna, INC.