The El Niño conditions that bring extreme rainfall, heat waves and drought to different parts of the world are set to intensify further during the July-September period this year, said the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

While the Indian subcontinent has to brace for below-normal rainfall, parts of Africa and southern Europe will see above-normal rainfall, according to WMO’s latest update, published Friday.

“El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event – as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

Both drought and flooding pose big threats to food production in already food insecure parts of the world, while heavy rains that cause flooding create displacement and exacerbate outbreaks of infectious and water-borne diseases such as cholera. Extreme heat, too, exerts mounting pressure on food production, Qu Dongyu, Director-General of UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization has warned.

Europe already reeling from heatwave

The warning comes as large parts of Europe were already reeling under a heatwave that has led to over 1300 deaths.

“It’s the first week of July, it’s the start of what is traditionally the hottest month of the year,” WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis told journalists in Geneva. “And yet already in June we’ve seen record-breaking temperatures in many parts of Europe; just as an example, Germany last weekend saw a new national temperature record of 41.7°C.

The WMO had already warned of El Niño conditions developing in the agency’s June update. Now conditions have further escalated.

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What is El Niño

While a natural phenomenon, more extreme El Niño conditions are a result of the warming of ocean temperatures in the Pacific that affect the wind-patterns in turn.

Normally, strong east-to-west trade winds push warm surface water toward Asia and Australia, allowing cold, nutrient-rich water to build up along the coast of South America.

During an El Niño event, however, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and weakened trade winds push warmer water eastward toward the Americas, shifting global weather patterns.

This year the sea-surface temperatures are over 2°C higher than what is typical in several key monitoring areas.

Below normal rainfall in the Indian Subcontinent and above normal in parts of Africa

It is therefore likely that the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia will receive below-normal rainfall, while above-normal rainfall is forecasted for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific region.

In west Africa, the Ivory Coast, Ghana and other countries along the Atlantic Ocean’s Gulf of Guinea are projected to receive above-normal rainfall. But on the eastern side of the continent, below-normal rainfall is forecast for already food-insecure countries such as Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia along the Horn of Africa coast of the Indian Ocean.

Below-normal rainfall is also forecast for parts of Central America, the Caribbean and northwestern South America. In contrast, wetter-than-average conditions are more likely across portions of the southwestern United States.

Across Europe, forecasts suggest a north-south contrast, with increased chances of above-normal rainfall in southern Europe and below-normal rainfall in northern Europe. However, for Europe, forecast confidence remains lower than in many other regions.

WMO helping countries brace for impact

WMO said it has begun intensifying its mobilization of information and support services so that countries can brace for the impacts of El Niño.

Regular briefings are being provided across the United Nations system and to humanitarian partners to support preparedness.

“The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors,” Saulo said. “Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.”

Image Credits: Dikaseva/ Unsplash, WHO / Hedinn Halldorsson, NOAA, WMO.