Armed conflict, mis- and disinformation and environmental risk dominate the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report, released on Wednesday.

The report, released on the eve of WEF’s annual meeting in Davos next week, is based on a Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) of over 900 global leaders in academia, business, government and civil society polled in September and October 2024.

“We seem to be living in one of the most divided times since the Cold War,” the report notes.

“Over the last year, we have witnessed the expansion and escalation of conflicts, a multitude of extreme weather events amplified by climate change, widespread societal and political polarisation, and continued technological advancements accelerating the spread of false or misleading information.”.

The survey results reveal a bleak outlook across all periods respondents were questioned about – current, short-term and long-term. 

Current risks

State-based armed conflict is the most pressing immediate global risk for 2025, according to the respondents. 

“The current geopolitical climate, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and with wars raging in the Middle East and in Sudan, makes it nearly impossible not to think about such events when assessing the one global risk expected to present a material crisis in 2025,” the report notes.

The “escalation pathways” for conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East depend on how the new Trump administration in the United States (US) responds, the report notes.

“Will the US take a firmer stance towards Russia, counting on such a move acting as a deterrent to further Russian escalation, and/or will it increase pressure on Ukraine, including reducing financial support?” it asks.

“The spectrum of possible outcomes over the next two years is wide, ranging from further escalation, perhaps also involving neighbouring countries, to uneasy agreement to freeze the conflict.”

In the Middle East, an escalation of Iran-Israel conflict will draw the US in more and “generate more long-term instability in the entire region, including the Gulf economies, where US military bases could become targets”.

Conflict over Taiwan also cannot be ruled out, it notes.

“The growing vacuum in ensuring global stability at a multilateral level will lead governments around the world increasingly to take national security matters into their own hands,” it warns.

Extreme weather events and “geo-economic confrontation” are the next biggest current concerns.

Short-term risks

Misinformation and disinformation remain the top short-term risks for the second consecutive year, posing risks to “societal cohesion and governance by eroding trust and exacerbating divisions within and between nations”.

The report also notes that it is “becoming more difficult to differentiate between AI- and human-generated misinformation and disinformation”, and that AI tools are enabling “a proliferation in such information”.

Extreme weather events, state-based armed conflict, societal polarisation, cyber-espionage and warfare are other key risks over the next two years. Pollution is ranked the sixth biggest risk.

To complement the GRPS short-term (two-year) data, the report also draws on the WEF’s Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) to identify risks to specific countries over the next two years, as identified by over 11,000 business leaders in 121 economies.

Longer-term risks

Environmental risks dominate the longer-term, 10-year outlook, with extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, critical change to Earth systems and natural resources shortages leading the 10-year risk rankings.

There was near-unanimous identification of “extreme weather events” as the biggest threat in the coming decade across the different stakeholder groups and regions surveyed.

The third highest risk, critical changes to the Earth systems, covers issues such as sea level rise from collapsing ice sheets, carbon release from thawing permafrost, and disruption of oceanic or atmospheric currents.

While pollution ranked 10th, younger people were much more concerned with this and those under the age of 30 listed it as their third biggest threat.

Extreme weather events are becoming more common and expensive, with the cost per event having increased nearly 77% (inflation-adjusted) over the last 50 years, the report notes.

Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse has “experienced one of the largest increases in ranking among all risks, moving from number 37 in 2009 to number 2 in 2025”, the report notes.

“Respondents are far less optimistic about the outlook for the world over the longer term than the short term,” according to a media release from WEF.

“Nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate a turbulent or stormy global landscape by 2035, driven in particular by intensifying environmental, technological and societal challenges.”

Global fragmentation

However, the WEF warns that, as experts anticipate “a fragmented global order marked by competition among middle and great powers”, multilateralism will face ‘significant strain”.

But in response, the WEF urges leaders to “rebuild trust, enhance resilience, and secure a sustainable and inclusive future for all” by prioritising dialogue, strengthening international ties and fostering conditions for renewed collaboration.

“Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape” notes WEF’s managing director, Mirek Dušek. “In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities.”

Ironically, WEF’s Davos meeting, themed “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age”, opens on the same day as the inauguration of US President-Elect Donald Trump, who is widely predicted to disrupt multilateral organisations and deepen global divisions.

Image Credits: UNICEF/UNI501989/Al-Qattaa.