Nearly a year after new Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk promised a fresh start for abortion rights, following his election victory in October 2023, reform efforts have stalled as campaign promises collide with the realities of coalition politics in a divided Poland. 

Poland is amongst only four countries worldwide to have restricted abortion rights in the past three decades, joining El Salvador, Nicaragua, and the United States. In 2020, Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal, stacked with judges appointed by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, further tightened the country’s already strict 1993 abortion law.

The Tribunal has even banned abortions due to fetal defects, which had accounted for about 90% of legal terminations. Current law permits abortions only in cases of rape, incest, or when the pregnancy endangers the mother’s life or health. At least six women have died after being denied abortions since the 2020 ruling.

The ruling sparked nationwide protests, mobilising millions of women across the country. Then, in the 2023 election that brought Tusk to power, 74% of eligible women voted, up from 61.5% in 2019. Exit polls indicated abortion policy as a key motivator. 

Tusk, capitalizing on the women’s rights movement, made the promise to liberalize abortion laws central to his campaign, which led to his centrist Civic Platform party taking power in a coalition with the New Left and centrist Third Way party – the latter a coalition of Poland 2050 and the rural-based Polish People’s Party (PSL). Even so, since his victory, hopes that the reform promises would be realized have turned to anger and frustration. 

First major legislative test fails

In its first major legislative test, the government coalition faced defeat on July 12 when a bill to decriminalize assistance for women seeking abortions was narrowly rejected by the Parliament’s lower chamber (Sejm), including by members of Tusk’s own Civic Platform, who abstained, as well as the Third Way and most notably the PSL, who voted outright against the reform.

“Among us activists, we’re furious,” said Agata Adamczuk of the feminist NGO Dziewuchy Dziewuchom, or Gals Help Gals. “Decriminalising help in getting an abortion directly affects activists because criminalisation has immediate consequences for us.”

The defeated bill would have removed potential three-year prison sentences for those helping women obtain abortions by providing tools, such as abortion pills, or persuading them to terminate a pregnancy. While assisting in abortions is criminalised, ending one’s own pregnancy remains legal in Poland, regardless of circumstances.

Estimates suggest 80,000 to 93,000 abortions occur annually in Poland, with only a few hundred performed legally. Most women rely on NGOs for information about accessing abortion pills online or through procedures abroad.

“Punishing abortion help is absurd and inhumane,” Adamczuk told Health Policy Watch. “People are sentenced for helping their loved ones.”

Coalition joins opposition

The bill’s defeat has exposed deep fissures within Tusk’s coalition and ignited public outrage. Tusk swiftly disciplined his own party members who were absent during the vote, suspending their party membership and stripping them of government and party functions.

“I feel very bad that I haven’t found arguments that would convince all those who voted differently than I did,” Tusk said following the vote. “I have a clear conscience because I’m doing everything so that this women’s hell will disappear.”

Even more notably, the Polish People’s Party’s (PSL) added its 24 votes to those of opposition forces: 175 from the right-wing Law and Justice party, 17 from the far-right Confederates, and two other right wing parliamentarians associated with a party known as Kukiz’15 (Law and Justice aligned). This coalition of 218 lawmakers narrowly blocked the legislation.

As parliament debates changing Poland's abortion law, a poll asked the public what MPs should do:

– 35%: legalise abortion on demand up to 12 weeks
– 21%: restore pre-2021 law
– 23%: call a referendum
– 14%: keep the current near-total ban

Via: https://t.co/HVfF56Kuw6 pic.twitter.com/90GTTaDi3u

— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) April 12, 2024

Advocating for a national referendum

Instead of a parliamentary vote on a new law, the PSL has advocated for a national referendum. This proposal is opposed by coalition allies and women’s rights organisations, who fear it could be weaponised by right-wing forces against women’s interests.

“PSL is a separate party, we have our own policy,” said Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the PSL leader. “In matters of personal belief, members always vote individually.”

The bill’s defeat was met with thunderous applause from its far-right opponents. Lawmaker Bartłomiej Wróblewski hailed the outcome as a triumph for “life and the constitution.”

“The Sejm has rejected the most blatant attempt to violate the Constitution since 1989 and strip unborn children of legal protection,” Wróblewski said.

The vote’s outcome sparked nationwide protests. On July 23, women’s rights activists demonstrated in front of parliament and in several cities, continuing pro-choice rallies against Tusk’s that began in January. Protesters repurposed slogans from 2020 demonstrations against PiS, now directing them at PSL.

According to pre-election polls last October, PSL was at risk of falling just below the electoral threshold – an outcome that may have provided a path for Law and Justice to retain power. As a a pro-democratic NGO said in a pre-electoral public statement, voters of the anty-Law and Justice coalition should consider “a strategic vote for the Third Way, regardless of their support for the Civic Platform or the New Left.”

The electoral score for the alliance reached 13% instead of the expected 8%: a sudden boost mostly credited to strategic voting. PSL now owes many of its parliamentary seats – and role in government – to voters who support more abortion liberalization than the party is willing to offer. 

Almost half of the coalition voters (44%) are disappointed with the lack of abortion law liberalisation, concluded a poll conducted in June. The number rises to 57% among women aged 18-39, an especially numerous group in the last elections.

First of four competing proposals

The July 12 vote, however, is only the first of four competing proposals aimed at easing Poland’s strict abortion laws. Three more bills await consideration by a special parliamentary committee but face an uncertain future due to ideological rifts within the coalition.

Two bills from the Civic Platform and the New Left would legalise abortion on demand up to 12 weeks, while a third bill, proposed by PSL and Poland 2050, seeks to reinstate exemptions only for fetal defects, returning the law of the land to its pre-2021 state.  

Even if future bills pass parliament, they face another hurdle: Polish President Andrzej Duda, of the conservative opposition Law and Justice party, has vowed to veto any decriminalization bill, citing abortions as “depriving people of life”. 

Duda’s term extends until mid-2025, giving him veto power over any legislative changes for more than a year. Overriding a presidential veto requires a three-fifths majority in parliament, a threshold that seems unattainable given the coalition’s struggle to secure even simple majorities on abortion-related legislation.

The Constitutional Tribunal, still dominated by rightist Law and Justice-appointed judges, could also overturn new laws enacted by Parliament.

Exploring ways to circumvent a presidential veto

The government is exploring alternatives to circumvent presidential vetoes on abortion-related legislation. After President Andrzej Duda vetoed a bill on March 29 that would have made a morning-after contraceptive pill available without prescription, Health Minister Izabela Leszczyna quickly countered with a workaround.

Leszczyna introduced new regulations allowing pharmacists to write prescriptions for the pills, making them available by May. While effective in this case, officials acknowledge such administrative measures are generally less potent than laws passed by parliament.

In July, Attorney General and Justice Minister Adam Bodnar issued new guidelines for prosecutors, offering another temporary solution in the absence of a bill decrmininalising abortion assistance. The directive aims to clarity which cases should be pursued and which should not. 

Under these guidelines, prosecutors are instructed to target organised groups profiting from the sale of abortion pills, but NGOs simply writing about abortion assistance are to be left alone. The guidelines suggest that doctors who refuse to terminate pregnancies that endanger a patient’s health could face criminal charges.

Abortion debate unfolds in era of rapid social change

Poland’s abortion debate is unfolding against a backdrop of rapid social change. Support for liberalising abortion laws has risen from 29% in 2016 to nearly 60% in December 2023, although support for abortion on demand up to 12 weeks – endorsed by Tusk and the Left – remains below 40%, according to a poll conducted by market research firm Ipsos.

The struggle has deep historical roots. Before 1993, Poland had one of Europe’s most liberal abortion laws. However, post-communism, the Catholic Church’s growing influence led to restrictions, against strong public opposition.

As Poland upheld its 1993 abortion restrictions, 60 countries worldwide have expanded access to the procedure. Polish women, facing hurdles to legal abortions, have taken their fight to the European Court of Human Rights. The court has ruled against Poland in several cases, citing violations of women’s rights.

Civic Platform’s growing political clout may still carry the bills forward

Despite setbacks, the New Left party plans to reintroduce the decriminalisation bill in late autumn, hoping to pick up at least three of the votes that it lost via the absence of Civic Platform and other coalition members in July.

Civic Platform’s recent victory in European Parliament elections may also signal shifting tides. In that contest, Tusk’s party secured 37.1% of the Polish vote, outperforming all other major mainstream parties in the EU. 

The victory was seen as a signal that Warsaw’s Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, also a member of Civic Platform, has a real chance of winning next year’s Polish presidential election, potentially aligning the presidency and its veto power with Tusk’s government. 

For now, activists like Adamczuk continue their work. “It’s always worth it to have hope,” she said. “We’re really wearing ourselves out, using a lot of our time and resources for this.” 

The only thing that the failure of the bill changes in the work to advance abortion rights, Adamczuk said, is “that we’re more and more angry.”

Stefan Anderson edited and contributed reporting to this story. 

Image Credits: Klub Lewicy, Greenpeace Polska, Council on Foreign Relations.