Elderly women with alzheimer's sit together
A group of older women socialise at Ukingu village in Geita region, with Hadija Kisanji on the far right.

GEITA, Tanzania —The first time 78-year-old Hadija Kisanji got lost on her way home, neighbors found her sitting under a baobab tree, staring blankly at the dusty road. When they asked where she was going, she whispered, “I think I live nearby.” That was three years ago. Today, Kisanji barely remembers her own name.

She’s amongst the many elderly Tanzanians silently battling dementia—a condition often mistaken for witchcraft. In a country where mental illness is stigmatized, dementia is not just an illness—it is a slow erasure of identity, leaving families struggling in isolation.

A life fading away

Alzheimer's dementia tanzania
Hadija Kisanji, 78, who suffers from dementia sits with her daughter Mariam and grandchildren.

Kisanji’s daughter, Mariam, has watched helplessly as her mother plunges further into confusion. “She calls me ‘mother’ sometimes,” Mariam told Health Policy Watch. “She doesn’t remember I am her child. She asks if her parents are coming back, but they’ve been dead for 50 years.”

In rural Tanzania, where medical facilities are scarce, dementia and Alzheimer’s remain largely undiagnosed. Families struggle to manage symptoms – wandering, memory loss, aggression – without professional guidance. “Some believe that when old people start acting strangely, they are bewitched,” said Mfaume Kibwana, Chief Medical Officer at  Geita Regional Referral Hospital. “It’s heartbreaking because dementia is a disease, not a curse to dispel. Yet many remain blinded by mistaken beliefs in witchcraft, and changing their minds isn’t easy.”

For Kisanji, the disease has turned her life into a puzzle of lost time. Once a respected midwife, she now spends her days clutching a stuffed teddy bear, convinced it is her real baby. “Shhh, don’t wake him,” she whispered to this reporter, holding the doll firmly in her frail arms.

A town struggling to understand

Geita, a region in northwestern Tanzania, near the southern shores of Lake Victoria and the Rwandan border.

Geita, a gold-mining region in north-western in Tanzania, near the Rwandan border and the shores of Lake Victoria, lacks specialized dementia care. The few health centres available are overstretched. Many families never seek medical attention, assuming dementia is a natural part of aging or fearing social stigma.

Even when families try to access care, the costs are prohibitive. “The doctor said my father needs special medicine,” says Juma Magesa, whose 82-year-old father, Mzee Rashid, was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s. “But where do I get 200,000 shillings ($80) every month when I can hardly feed my children?”

Magesa has resorted to tying a small bell to his father’s wrist. “At night, he tries to leave the house. If I hear the bell, I wake up and stop him.”

Social isolation worsens the situation. “People stopped visiting us,” says Rehema Komba, who takes care of her 89-year-old mother Joseline Kombe. “They say she is bewitched. Even my own relatives tell me to take her to a witch doctor instead of a hospital.”

A glimpse across Africa

Alzheimer's in Africa
Joseline Kombe, 89, (on right) sits with relatives who are weaving baskets.

The struggle of dementia patients in Tanzania reflects a broader crisis across Africa, where ageing populations are rising but geriatric healthcare remains underdeveloped. The World Health Organization estimates that by 2050, nearly 10% of Africa’s population will be over 60.

Dementia is already on the rise in Sub-Saharan Africa, with 2.13 million people affected in 2015—a figure projected to soar to 7.62 million by 2050.

A daring thief of memory and autonomy, dementia now affects over 55 million individuals globally, with nearly 10 million new cases emerging each year. Alarmingly, more than 60% of those living with dementia reside in low- and middle-income countries, where resources for care and support are often scarce. 

The economic toll of dementia is staggering. In 2019, the global cost was estimated at US$1.3 trillion, a figure projected to rise to US$1.7 trillion by 2030, and potentially US$2.8 trillion when accounting for increases in care costs. Informal caregivers, often family members, shoulder approximately half of these expenses, dedicating an average of five hours daily to care and supervision. 

People living with dementia could triple by 2050

Beyond the financial strain, dementia casts a profound shadow on human lives. It is currently the seventh leading cause of death worldwide and a major contributor to disability and dependency amongst older adults. Women are disproportionately affected, both as patients and caregivers; they account for 70% of care hours provided to those living with dementia. 

As the global population ages, projections indicate that the number of people living with dementia could triple by 2050, reaching 152 million. This looming crisis underscores the urgent need for comprehensive public health strategies, increased awareness, and robust support systems to address the multifaceted challenges posed by dementia. 

The World Health Organization’s member states recognized dementia as a public health priority in 2017, endorsing a Global Action Plan (2017-2025), due to come up for review at this year’s May World Health Assembly. This plan provides a comprehensive blueprint for action across seven strategic areas, including increasing awareness, reducing risk, and providing support for caregivers. 

But the growing burden of dementia also highlights potential opportunities for the African continent to innovate and develop interventions. Experts convening in Nairobi at last year’s inaugural Nature conference on brain health and dementia noted that researchers could gain valuable insights into risk factors through the study of Africa’s very diverse populations, leading to the development of more effective as well as affordable interventions for dementia worldwide. 

“With 80% of the people with dementia likely to be in the Global South by 2050, it’s imperative that we bring the high-resource communities and the Global South together to solve the problem,” said George Vradenburg, founder of the Davos Alzheimer’s Collaborative, which co-sponsored the event.

The burden of care

In many or most African households, caregiving typically falls on the shoulders of women—daughters, granddaughters, or wives. 

Mariam, for instance, quit her job as a teacher to care for her mother full-time. “It is like watching a candle burn out,” she says. “One day, she knows who I am. The next, she doesn’t even recognize her own face in the mirror.”

With no nursing homes or hospice care, families rely on each other. “I can’t leave her alone,” Mariam says. “She might wander into the street. She might fall into the fire while cooking.”

Dr Kibwana warned that caregivers, too, suffer silently. “They develop anxiety, depression, even physical health problems from stress. But they don’t talk about it because, in our culture, taking care of your parents is a duty, not a choice.”

A mother forgotten

Alzheimer's elderly Tanzania dementia
Rehema Magesa, 81, walks outside her house in Geita. She doesn’t remember her name.

 An old woman sat on a wooden stool outside a crumbling mud-brick house, her faded khanga wrapped tightly around her frail shoulders. Her eyes, clouded with confusion, darted back and forth, as if searching for something just beyond reach. The late afternoon sun bathed her wrinkled face in gold, but there was no warmth in her expression – just an emptiness that had swallowed the person she used to be.

Her name is Rehema Magesa, or at least that’s what her family tells her. She does not remember. At 81, Alzheimer’s and dementia have stolen the sharp-witted woman who once ran a thriving fish stall at the Mwanza market, and raised six children with the strength of a lioness. Now, she barely recognizes them. She calls her eldest son “Baba” and mistakes her teenage granddaughter for the neighbor’s child. Some days, she accuses her own family of stealing her money – money she hasn’t earned in years.

Inside the house, her daughter Halima stirs a pot of thin maize porridge, her face drawn with exhaustion. “She wakes up at night and wanders,” Halima said, glancing toward the door, as if fearing her mother might slip out again. “Last week, we found her on the road to the lake, barefoot, shivering. A stranger had to bring her home.” There’s no money for a caretaker, no proper medication, no respite. The family struggles to make ends meet, and Magesa – once the pillar of the household – has become its heaviest burden.

At dusk, she sits quietly, tracing invisible patterns in the dust with her fingers. Her son, Rashid, watches from a distance. “She carried me on her back when I was a baby,” he said. “Now, she doesn’t even know who I am.”

Fighting a ‘big war with small weapons’ 

Healthcare in Tanzania
Caption Dr. Wilfred Chuwa of Bugando Regional Referral Hospital, attending to a patient in Mwanza.

Tanzania’s healthcare system has made progress, but dementia care remains overlooked in national policy. There are no awareness campaigns, no government-funded housing for older people, and no formal support networks for caregivers, leaving families to navigate the challenges alone.

Experts warn that dementia cases will rise sharply as the country’s ageing population grows. “We are sitting on a time bomb,” said Dr Kibwana. “If we do nothing, thousands of elderly people will suffer in silence, and families will continue to bear a heavy burden.”

Some grass roots organizations are trying to fill the gap. A local NGO in the port-city of Dar es Salaam , The Good Samaritan Social Service Tanzania, has started training community health workers to identify and recognize dementia symptoms. “We go door to door, talking to families,” said volunteer Neema Kijazi. “We tell them, ‘Your mother is not possessed. She is sick.’”

But resources are limited. “We need more training, more medicine, more doctors,” Kijazi said. “Right now, we are fighting a big war with small weapons.”

Ageing in poverty

Dementia care is just one part of a larger crisis facing Tanzania’s elderly. In a country where more than half the population is under 18, older people are often overlooked. Life expectancy remains low—68.4 years for women and 65.2 for men—but those who surpass this threshold face a brutal reality, where survival is a daily battle.

“Our bodies are fragile. As  we grow old, our strength and vitality diminish while ill health set in with a devastating impact,”said Zena Mabeyo professor of social welfare at the Institute of Social Work in Dar Es Salaam.

But for most people she knows, retirement is a foreign concept. Nearly 96% of older Tanzanians keep working out of necessity, tending small farms, selling vegetables, or weaving mats. The fortunate ones own a few goats or chickens—their version of a “bank account.”

“Diminishing strength and stamina obviously affects the kind of work that elderly people can do and how long they can do it,” Mabeyo told Health Policy Watch.

Those too frail to work rely entirely on their families’ support. Tanzania has no universal pension system, and only former government employees receive stipends – although too small to sustain them.

The gradual breakdown of both traditional and modern support systems has left many elderly Tanzanians struggling to survive.

Although the country has recognized ageing in its national policy, this is a largely rhetorical gesture, critics say. Policies fail to effectively address the needs of older people, and particularly those suffering from dementia and Alzheimer’s.

“We haven’t seen meaningful interventions for older people with dementia and Alzheimer’s in Tanzania,” Mabeyo said. “Without a clear strategy for diagnosis, care, and support, many elderly people continue to suffer in silence.”

Prioritizing dementia in Africa

Alzheimer's aging elderly Tanzania
Maria Maserere, another local resident with dementia, sits outside her home in Gaita’s rural environs.

Public health experts like Dr Kibwana urge Tanzania and other African nations to prioritize dementia as a public health issue. They stress the need for awareness campaigns, caregiver support programs, and affordable medication. Without these measures, they warn, thousands of families will continue to struggle alone, and the silent suffering of the elderly will only worsen.

For now, Mariam and many others remain trapped in a cycle of care and grief, hoping for a future where their loved ones can live with dignity, not in the shadows.

Each day is a battle against the unknown. “I don’t know how long I can do this,” she admits. “I pray that one day, someone will help us.”

Juma echoes her fears. “We are drowning,” he says. “Nobody sees us, nobody hears us.”

As the darkness sets in Geita, Kisanji sits on the squeaking wooden bench, humming an old Sukuma(tribe) lullaby. For a brief moment, she looks at Mariam and smiles. “Mama,” she says softly.

Mariam squeezes her mother’s hand, holding onto that fleeting moment of clarity. Because tomorrow, Kisanji may forget again. And all Mariam can do is wait – and remember for both of them.

Image Credits: Kizito Makoye Shigela/HPW, Google Maps , Kizito Makoye Shigela/HPW, Muhidin Michuzi.

Encephalitis, the inflammation of the brain, can cause long-term damage. Its current global burden is unknown.

Encephalitis “remains under-recognized, under-diagnosed, and underfunded”,  according to a new policy report from the World Health Organization (WHO).

Climate change, vaccine hesitancy, and the rising burden of vector-borne diseases are also fuelling an increased number of encephalitis cases, a rare but serious inflammation of the brain. 

The technical document urges coordinated global action to “confront and tackle the growing public health threat from encephalitis,” and points to prevention strategies, as well as gaps in diagnosis, research, treatment, and care. 

“Unless prompt action is taken, encephalitis will continue to drive avoidable deaths and disability,” notes Encephalitis International, a global advocacy non-profit.

“Regrettably, the withdrawal of support for the WHO and potential dissolution of USAID by President Donald J Trump’s Administration, among other recent executive actions, threaten to worsen an already challenging situation,” said the non-profit in a statement.

The report comes as measles, which in some cases can cause encephalitis ,continues to plague higher-income countries, including a recent outbreak in West Texas, where a “close-knit, undervaccinated” Mennonite community is at the epicentre of a 58-person outbreak.

Vaccine skeptics received a strong boost in the confirmation of Robert F Kennedy Jr as Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. The Secretary spent more than 30 years sowing doubt as to the safety of vaccines. Measles, mumps, and rubella–diseases prevented by routine childhood vaccines–can also in some cases cause encephalitis. 

‘Life-threatening’ brain inflammation

Encephalitis, the swelling of the brain, affects people across all age groups, and has high mortality rates. 

“Unlike other organs or organ systems, the brain is very sensitive to swelling and inflammation…when the brain is injured, it can have permanent effects on the brain’s function – like walking, talking, even causing seizures,” said Dr Youssef Kousa, a neurologist and founder of the Zika Genetics Consortium at Children’s National Hospital, in an interview with Health Policy Watch.

“For a lot of encephalitdes, there are no treatments.”

The condition often leads to significant long-term complications including hearing loss, seizures, limb weakness, and difficulties with vision, speech, language, memory and communication, according to the WHO.

Globally in 2021, encephalitis was the fourth leading cause of neurological health loss in children under five years and the 13th across all age groups. The report notes that in the same year, over 80,000 people died from encephalitis and up to 50% of people with encephalitis suffered long-term after-effects of the condition, losing “independence, income and quality of life.”

Underdiagnosed and lacking political commitment

Encephalitis mortality map
Mortality from encephalitis is the highest in South and South-East Asia, where Japanese Encephalitis Virus is likely to continue spreading.

“Encephalitis is a growing public health challenge, and by prioritizing it within global and national health agendas and strengthening collaboration, we can reduce its impact and save lives,” said Dr Tarun Dua, head of the Brain Health Unit at the WHO, in a press release. 

“These efforts will not only improve health outcomes and quality of life for those affected and their families but also result in stronger, more resilient health systems.” The Brain Health Unit at WHO was only formed in 2020, as a growing number of brain-related conditions affect both lower and higher income countries, notably Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, epilepsy, and encephalitis. 

“I sit here just as Oropouche virus is increasing in cases in South America, right now and as yet, barely studied. Without surveillance, this virus will continue to spread almost unnoticed,” said Dr Aline MB Matos, a neurologist from São Paulo, Brazil, at the report’s launch on Wednesday.

“Encephalitis today is not a funding priority in many low and middle income countries, not because it is not important, but because these countries face multiple crises. Lack of clean water, limited access to education, an overburdened healthcare system, armed conflicts. And as a reality, it is difficult to choose what to prioritize.

“But encephalitis must be a priority.”

Diagnosis in lower-and-middle income countries is especially difficult, because the condition requires a confirmatory lumbar puncture, and sometimes highly specialized tests such as brain imaging and electroencephalography (EEG). However, as the report notes, and as Matos highlighted in her remarks, most of the world’s population lives in areas with no immediate access to comprehensive or rapid encephalitis diagnostics. 

“In many countries, lumbar punctures are performed on only some of the people with suspected brain infections. This may be due to a lack of trained workforce or procedural kits, and misconceptions about lumbar puncture indications and safety,” noted the report. 

But even in higher-income countries, there are only so many treatments for the viruses that cause encephalitis, said Kousa. Even if Zika or West Nile Virus can be diagnosed more readily in the US, providers have nearly the same limited treatment options as those in lower-income countries. 

Vector-borne diseases pose new threat 

Although JEV is rare, the mosquito-borne disease can have a case-fatality rate as high as 30%.

Several pathogens can cause encephalitis, with the herpes simplex virus being the most common cause of the condition, according to the WHO. But other viruses, notably vector-borne diseases, are a rising threat for encephalitis. 

Dengue, Zika virus, and oropouche virus are all increasing in incidence and prevalence in South America, the Caribbean, and South and South-East Asia, as warming climates, deforestation, and urbanization spur mosquitoes into closer proximity to humans. Almost half of the global population is now at risk for these diseases.

Recent dengue outbreaks have plagued the Indian subcontinent, and oropouche virus, a relatively rare vector-borne disease, is likely to see case levels similar to last year’s record-breaking season.

Also of concern is Japanese Encephalitis virus (JEV), which has now spread to 24 South-East Asia and Western Pacific countries, including Australia, and a novel tick-borne encephalitis. 

“We do not know the full number of encephalitis cases worldwide, but we do know that infectious causes play a major role, and in low and middle income countries, many of these pathogens are either emerging or being neglected,” said Matos. The problem is only exacerbated by climate change, as previously uninhabitable regions become mosquito breeding grounds. 

“This renders large populations at increasing risk of vector-borne diseases such as arboviruses,” noted the report.

While these diseases have few – or even no – vaccines, some more established, and vaccine-preventable diseases, are seeing a resurgence.

Encephalitis-inducing viruses can be prevented by vaccines, such as influenza, varicella-zoster virus (VZV), rabies, poliomyelitis, and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR). The COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions in routine immunizations and vaccine hesitancy have left experts worried about encephalitis cases due to MMR. 

“Vaccine hesitancy is an issue for us, and it’s part of this bigger picture science skepticism and false information. So it’s up to us as a community to push out the right messages,” said Dr Tom Solomon CBE, a neurologist at Liverpool University Brain Infections Group, at the report launch. Solomon is also President of Encephalitis International and an advisor to the WHO

Hopes that WHO support will lend greater awareness

encephalitis international 2025 event
Experts convened in London to discuss the impact of the WHO’s new brief. From left: Dr Tom Solomon, Dr Benedict Michael, Dr Aline MB Matos, and Dr Nicoline Schiess.

For Professor Benedict Michael, a neurologist at the University of Liverpool, the new report “puts encephalitis on the map,” building on the advocacy successes in the past decade. While epilepsy and Parkinson’s have garnered more attention on the brain health front, the experts gathered at the Encephalitis International-WHO launch hope that the report will improve public health policies, including vaccine programs and vector control. 

“Encephalitis is just one example of why working together matters. From COVID-19 we learnt diseases do not respect borders, politics or ideologies. They affect us all,” said Dr Aline MB Matos.

Understanding the disease burden through improved surveillance, and improving patient care in rehabilitation and access to healthcare were also high on the priority list.

“Our recent research has shown that many of the interventions needed to improve diagnosis and treatment of encephalitis are not particularly expensive. A lot of it is about increasing surveillance and recognition of the condition, providing simple equipment for early diagnosis, and making sure the right treatments, many of which are very affordable, are available,” said Solomon.

The report points to several key factors that would reduce the burden of encephalitis, stating countries should prioritize relevant medicines for inclusion into national essential medications lists and standardized treatment protocols, include both autoimmune and infectious encephalitis and their treatments in publicly funded UHC packages, use and expand existing surveillance systems for forecasting demand and supply chains, and pair better availability and affordability of medicines with appropriate training and education of the health workforce to recognize and treat encephalitis in a timely manner. 

“There’s huge potential for this technical brief to have genuine global impact that’s transformative in the brain health agenda,” concluded Benedict.

Image Credits: Flickr: Florey Institute of Neuroscience & Mental Health, WHO, WHO, Encephalitis International.

Dr Tedros addresses the closing session.

Negotiators working to nail down the pandemic agreement have offered assurances that they can meet the May deadline – for the sake of global security and to restore faith in multilateralism.

Despite only five formal days of talks remaining in April, Pakistan’s Umair Khalid said his country believes there is enough time to clinch the agreement. 

“I don’t think any treaty is negotiated and agreed within a 9am-to-6pm, Monday to Friday setting. So you always have to put in some extra hours, and we have been doing that, and  we’ll continue to do that,” Khalid told a gathering of civil society groups meeting in Geneva during lunchtime on Friday.

“We will use March, we will use April, and we will use all the time that we have.”

India’s Dr Pradeep Khasnobis said that talks “are moving forward” and that “some of those very tough articles, at least have some kind of a landing zone”. 

Eswatini, speaking for the African region, Egypt and Sudan in the closing session, described the week’s talks as “constructive”.

“While we acknowledge concerns about the moderate pace, we are optimistic that the remaining issues, though critical, are manageable,” said Eswatini. 

“We must prepare to conclude our discussions in the five days allocated for the month of April, and we thank the Bureau for proposing additional discussions to address these gaps. We are ready to burn the midnight oils.”

The Philippines, speaking for a 11 diverse countries including Brazil, Canada and the UK, stressed the importance of reaching agreement to restore faith in multilateralism.

“Given the increased challenges facing this organisation, and multilateralism itself, there is a need to demonstrate that countries can indeed come together to solve common problems. We did this in May when we amended the International Health Regulations. This year, we need to adopt the WHO Pandemic Agreement,” said the Philippines, adding that member states managed to make “incremental improvements” to the text “by really listening to one another”.

“We have sat together in this room too many times over the last three years to not have a decent understanding of each other’s positions. We all have some sense of what the consensus text should look like,” id added.

“Let us finish what we have started. Adopting a meaningful Pandemic Agreement will be a win for all of us. The conclusion of the pandemic agereement in May will be a testimony to the world of our commitment to global health and of the continuing relevance of WHO in a time of major political challenges.”

Colombia’s Maria Tenorio Quintero told the civil society gathering that meeting the May deadline would take “extra effort”, and appealed to civil society to help raise public awareness about the positive impact that the agreement could have.

Norway’s Eirik Bakka stressed that the draft agreement “is not an empty shell, and there are important elements that are already agreed to bring it to the finishing line”.

‘Use every opportunity to find common ground’

Joining the closing session, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyessus, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General, said that the 13th meeting of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB) had made progress – but “maybe not as much as you would have hoped”.

“As you move to finalize the pandemic agreement in time for the World Health Assembly, you have one week of formal negotiations left. 

“But you’re so close, closer than you think. You’re on the cusp of making history. This agreement should not fail on a word; it should not fail on a comma and it should not fail on a percentage.

 “History will not forgive us if we fail to deliver on the mandate the world needs, and a sign that multilateralism still works. Reaching a WHO pandemic agreement in the current geopolitical environment is a sign of hope.”

Tedros concluded with two messages: “We believe you can do it” and “Use every opportunity during the intercessional period to come closer together towards finding common ground.”

Civil society anxiety

Nina Jamal of Four Paws and KEI’s Jamie Love.

Civil society organisations following the pandemic agreement negotiations over the past three years are anxious that it won’t be completed by May – and that impetus for the initiative will fizzle and further undermine multilateralism.

A sombre group of over 75 people met in person and online in Geneva over lunch on Friday to express frustration at the slow pace of talks over the past five days. 

With only five official negotiating days remaining – 7-11 April – many complex parts of the agreement are not agreed. The group also raised concerns about provisions being watered down of provisions, particularly on technology transfer and intellectual property, and the absence of clauses on prevention.

Knowledge Ecology International’s Jamie Love expressed disappointment over “the lowering of the ambitions on the initial versions of the text and watering down of provisions”.

He also raised that it may suit some parties, particularly the European Union, not to have an  agreement in May given the “rise of the anti vaxxers and right-wing populism”.

Ellen ‘t Hoen of Medicines Law and Policy described reaching agreement as “crucial now in the current political context and the huge global health crisis caused by the United States withdrawal of aid and European countries slashing their aid budgets”.

“This makes the need for having a signal that multilateralism still works even more important than in the earlier days of the pandemic. This total lack of international solidarity is of huge concern.”

Meanwhile, Four Paws’ Nina Jamal said member states seemed to accept the importance of the agreement for multilateralism

However, Jamal added that pandemic prevention offers the best chance to protect people in countries with weak health systems.

“This is the deepest level of equity that we can achieve. And we are disappointed because a lot of countries who  support prevention and are taking action nationally on prevention with a One Health approach are not being vocal in the negotiations because they think if they talk about prevention, they’re disadvantaging their negotiating position for medical countermeasures, preparedness and response.”

Health professionals – icluding those working on outbreak investigation, maternal mortality, and vector-borne disease – across HHS’s 13 divisions saw mass layoffs as the Trump administration attempts to reduce the size of the federal workforce.

The large-scale government firings have now targeted thousands of probationary employees at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), wiping out the ranks of young and up-and-coming scientists from the nation’s leading health and research agencies as well as the more senior staff who had advanced to new positions. 

Although it is unclear how many workers the Trump administration plans to cut, dismissing scientists on probation who do not yet enjoy the same job protections in the civil service system, offer an easy target for termination. 

“It’s using a machete instead of a surgical knife,” Dr Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist and director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), told Health Policy Watch in an interview. 

Contrary to popular perceptions about government bloat, he noted that the federal government workforce is slightly smaller today than 50 years ago in the 1970s despite a 68% growth in the US population. The number of government contractors, however, has doubled. 

Dismissal emails continue to be sent out to the 13 operating divisions under HHS citing “poor performance,” even though many had just received “outstanding” job reviews. 

Last Thursday, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) directed all federal agencies to terminate those in their probationary period.

Federal employees remain on probation for one to two years after hiring, depending on the position and agency, many of which are highly competitive. Probationary status lacks the benefits of permanent employment, making them easier to remove. Those in probation include recent hires and career staffers who began new positions or were promoted.

Public health experts targeted

“The probationary period is a continuation of the job application process, not an entitlement for permanent employment. Agencies are taking independent action in light of the recent hiring freeze and in support of the President’s broader efforts to restructure and streamline the federal government to better serve the American people at the highest possible standard,” an OPM spokesperson said in a statement, and as reported by The Hill.

The move is a reversal from an OPM directive just days earlier, when agencies were told to remove probationary employees only if they were poor performers.

The exact number of health professionals has not been released, but the New York Times reports that 1,200 NIH employees were dismissed, and National Public Radio reports that 750 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) experts received notice of their removal. 

FDA, CMS, CDC see lay-offs, other divisions spared

Indian health service flags
The Indian Health Service (IHS) serves 2.8 million American Indians and Alaskan Natives. The order to fire over 1,000 IHS employees was rescinded.

Emails firing probationary employees were sent to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), and the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR). Staff affected include researchers investigating emerging diseases, such as rabies, dengue, oropouche, and others, reports the Washington Post, in what it called the “Valentine’s Day massacre” of federal layoffs.

Also nixed is the CDC’s Public Health Associate’s Program, which places trainees into local, state, and tribal public health agencies in an effort to alleviate workforce shortages.

Initially, over 1,000 Indian Health Service (IHS) employees received notice of their removal last Friday, reported Native News Online. The IHS provides care to 2.8 million indigenous Americans and Alaska Natives, who suffer disproportionately high rates of diabetes, cancer, COVID-19, and other illnesses.

But later in the evening, the firings were rescinded. The newly confirmed HHS Secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr, told Native News that he acknowledged that IHS “was chronically understaffed and underfunded.” 

At the CDC, similar turmoil and mixed messaging meant that the Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) was potentially facing disbanding last Friday. But the quick public outcry meant that the nation’s deployable “disease detectives” were spared. 

“Efficiency is more than cutting dollars— it’s about improving processes, strengthening infrastructure, and ensuring sustainability – making every dollar work to its fullest potential for Americans,” said Dr Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist and founder of Your Local Epidemiologist. “Prevention and early intervention are an investment – often paying 2-60x in return by reducing healthcare costs, improving workforce productivity, and making communities safer.

“There’s room for improvement, but if we want to lose weight, let’s not cut off our legs.”

Even so, this is less than the 10% cuts promised by the administration.

The firings were not unique to public health operations – air traffic controllers at the FAA, TSA agents, and the National Science Foundation were also affected. Some experts have been asked to come back – notably nuclear safety officers – after the new administration realized their work is vital to government operations. The Trump administration is reportedly having trouble reaching these experts.

On Thursday, a federal judge denied a lawsuit filed by unions representing federal workers that OPM is overstepping its authority. The judge said he did not have jurisdiction over the matter as it should be decided by the Federal Labor Relations Authority.

For public health experts, the indiscriminate firings are a matter of American public health security. 

“Whether it be at FDA, CDC, NIH, I think those three agencies in particular are going to be severely challenged over the weeks and months ahead,” said Osterholm, in an interview with Health Policy Watch. 

“I don’t think we have any idea yet of just what the breadth of those cuts are going to be or how it happens.”

Dr Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, echoed this sentiment in a statement to NPR, calling the cuts at the CDC “indiscriminate, poorly-thought-out layoffs” that would be “very destructive to the core infrastructure of public health.”

Bird flu response in flux

Officials trying to contain bird flu were among those fired over the weekend. USDA says it is “working swiftly to rectify the situation.”

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which trying to contain the ongoing avian influenza epidemic, has been trying to reach the experts it “accidentally” fired over the weekend.

“Although several positions supporting [bird flu efforts] were notified of their terminations over the weekend, we are working to swiftly rectify the situation and rescind those letters,” a USDA spokesperson said in a statement. 

“USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service frontline positions are considered public safety positions, and we are continuing to hire the workforce necessary to ensure the safety and adequate supply of food to fulfill our statutory mission.”

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have expressed concerns over the firings, which are part of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)’s attempts to cut back on government spending.

“They need to be more cautious,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), a member of the Agriculture Committee, told NBC News in a statement about the DOGE team. 

“There’s an old saying, ‘Measure twice, cut once.’ Well, they are measuring once and having to cut twice. Some of this stuff they’re going to have to return back. I just wish they’d make a better decision up front.”

Cuts are ‘arbitrary’ 

The public health activities of HHS span overseeing food and drug safety, responding to and containing disease outbreaks, and providing direct healthcare to hundreds of thousands of Americans. 

But critics point to the growing US deficit, which has grown to $1.3 trillion since 2001, as a compelling reason for DOGE to continue cutting the federal workforce. 

DOGE “senior advisor,” billionaire Elon Musk, has said that his goal is to cut federal spending by $2 trillion, out of a $6.75 trillion annual budget in the latest fiscal year. The entrepreneur has made unsubstantiated claims that he has already saved $8 billion.

In reality, the federal workforce has not grown in proportion to the US population. “I understand the need to address the growing deficit problem,” said Osterholm. “But…we should be looking to find ways to strategically and tactically [reduce the deficit], and not just arbitrarily. 

“There’s no real rhyme or reason as to who you’re cutting or why.”

RFK commission to ‘scrutinize childhood vaccine schedules’

Robert F Kennedy Jr (RFK Jr) day 2 confirmation hearing
Amid mass lay-offs of federal health workers, HHS Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr has set up a commission to look at childhood vaccines.

Efforts to downsize the nation’s public health workforce come just as new HHS Secretary Robert F  Kennedy Jr, said he was moving forward with plans to create a presidential commission to scrutinize childhood vaccine schedules. 

That commission, part of the overall effort to “Make America Healthy Again” will likely target CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which sets influential vaccine recommendations. 

“Nothing is going to be off limits,” Kennedy said in an HHS meeting that was reported by several news outlets. 

“Some of the possible factors we will investigate were formally taboo or insufficiently scrutinized. Childhood vaccine schedule, electromagnetic radiation, glyphosate, other pesticides, ultra-processed foods, artificial food allergies, SSRI [antidepressants] and other psychiatric drugs, PFAS, PFOA, microplastics — nothing is going to be off limits,” Kennedy said on Tuesday. And late Thursday, HHS ordered CDC to halt some vaccine advertisements to emphasize “informed consent.”

His moves come despite promises by the HHS secretary after his confirmation that employees who are “involved in good science” or who “care about public health” have “nothing to worry about.”

 

Image Credits: CDC, IHS, Charlotte Kesl/ World Bank.

People flee Goma during the latest clashes

 The eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) particularly around Goma and Bukavu, may become a hotspot for disease transmission following renewed conflict and the freeze in aid from the United States, warned Dr Jean Kaseya, Director General of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC).

Amid fighting when M23 rebels recently seized the two towns from DRC forces, over 400 mpox patients fled from health facilities, while outbreaks of cholera and measles are also affecting the region.

Over a million displaced people living in Goma and over 150,000 in Bukavu are particularly vulnerable to disease.

“This can be the entry point for a new pandemic,” warned Kaseya, adding that none of the regions affected by insecurity are reporting on diseases and laboratory testing has been disrupted by the United States freeze on foreign funds.

“In regions like South Kivu and North Kivu, we don’t have information, either because of insecurity or the pause in the US government funding, because the mechanism that we had in place in terms of sample referral was based on US funding provided to DRC,” Kaseya told a media briefing on Thursday. 

The DRC’s mpox response is affected by conflict and lack of funds.

“The combination of insecurity, lack of funding and lack of medical countermeasures, [means] we are playing with fire.”

Earlier in the week, Grégoire Mateso Mbuta, president of the DRC Red Cross said that “the humanitarian situation is dire in Bukavu and Goma.

“In Goma, the morgues and hospitals are overwhelmed. Around 190 DRC Red Cross volunteers and a team of coordinators are working tirelessly to recover the bodies left in the streets, take measures to prevent epidemics and give the victims a dignified burial. In the face of so much need, more help must be provided urgently, ” he added in a joint statement released by the International Committee of the Red Cross, the International Federation of the Red Cross and the Red Cross Society in the DRC.

New fund for epidemics

Dr Jean Kaseya

The African Union finally gave the go-ahead for an African Epidemic Fund to raise money to address continental disease outbreaks at its meeting last week, which is crucial in the wake of the US  withdrawal of foreign funding.

The fund will be administered by Africa CDC and facilitate a flexible and speedy response to outbreaks, according to Kaseya.

“We can receive funding without any limitation, without any bureaucracy, to use that to support African countries to prepare and to respond to outbreaks,” said Kaseya.

Africa CDC will provide the secretariat for the fund, which will be guided by a board.

Aside from the DRC’s mpox outbreak, continental malaria, tuberculosis and HIV efforts, have been affected by the US aid freeze. 

The US under President Joe Biden pledged $500 million to assist the continent with mpox and other outbreaks with $385 million committed. 

Kaseya said that Africa CDC was negotiating to “see this commitment become real money”, but that talks were ongoing. 

Since the funds freeze announced on 20 January when Donald Trump assumed office, China and South Korea have pledged $4 million and Morocco has also pledged $2 million –  but this makes up a teeny percentage of US aid to the continent. 

Kaseya said that Africa CDC had engaged with US officials immediately after Trump announced the freeze a month ago, and claimed some credit securing the US waiver on life-saving humanitarian expenditure.

However, despite the waiver, numerous health projects are still in limbo as they wait for official waiver letters.

In addition, “all HIV prevention activities were excluded from the waiver, except for those aimed at preventing mother-to-child transmission”, according to amFar this week. 

“To date, few implementers have been approved to restart services under the waiver, leaving all activities, including treatment, still paused.” 

Mpox tech transfer deal with African company

While there are no accurate mpox figures from the DRC, the epidemic is growing in Uganda, Congo Brazzaville and Zambia, which has shown a huge jump in figures from 16 to 700 cases.

However, in a glimmer of good news mpox vaccine manufacturer Bavaria Nordic has “95%” concluded a technology transfer deal with an African company to enable the vaccine to be produced on the continent.

This transfer will be a “fill and finish” deal rather than the more comprehensive drug substance transfer.

Dr Ngashi Ngongo, head of Africa CDC’s Incident Management Support Team, said he was working on creating demand for the mpox vaccine including the creation of a continental stockpile to ensure that countries would buy the locally manufactured vaccine.

Image Credits: Ley Uwera/ International Committe of the Red Cross.

In October 2024, the final phase of the polio vaccine campaign in Gaza’s northernmost neighborhoods was never fully completed due to intense fighting. Now, after discovering more poliovirus in Gaza wasteater, WHO and UNICEF are launching a third vaccination round.

A third mass polio vaccination campaign will be carried out next week in the embattled Gaza Strip, following the further detection of poliovirus in wastewater samples, WHO and UNICEF said in a surprise, joint announcement on Wednesday.

“This campaign follows the recent detection of poliovirus in wastewater samples in Gaza, signaling ongoing circulation in the environment, putting children at risk,” the agencies declared.

The new round follows two successful vaccine rounds last autumn, including one carried out during a brief pause from the height of bitter fighting in northern Gaza.  But while those succeeded in reaching over 95% of children 10 and under who were targeted, it apparently was not enough to wipe out the virus entirely. During the second round, in October, WHO also warned that the inability of vaccine teams to reach children in the northernmost neighborhoods of Gaza such as Jabalia, to which Israel had blocked healthworker access while heavy fighting raged, could create future pockets of vulnerability.

“Pockets of individuals with low or no immunity provide the virus an opportunity to continue spreading and potentially cause disease,” WHO and UNICEF said in the statement. ” The current environment in Gaza, including overcrowding in shelters and severely damaged water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure, which facilitates fecal-oral transmission, create ideal conditions for further spread of poliovirus. Extensive population movement consequent to the current ceasefire is likely to exacerbate the spread of poliovirus infection.”

Most of Gaza’s sewage infrastructure – along with homes, schools and other infrastructure, have been destroyed during Israel’s invasion of Gaza and 16 months of fighting with Hamas that followed the bloody Hamas raids 7 October into Israeli communities near the Gaza enclave, that led to 1200 deaths and the capture of some 250 hostages. Over 46,000 Gaza Palestinians have been killed by Israel in the ensuing war.

“No additional polio cases have been reported since a ten-month-old child was paralyzed in August 2024,” the agencies said.  “But the new environmental samples from Deir al Balah and Khan Younis, collected in December 2024 and January 2025, confirm poliovirus transmission. The strain detected is genetically linked to the poliovirus detected in the Gaza Strip in July 2024.”

Cease fire creates better access to areas missed

Health workers leaving Kamal Adwan Hospital in December after months of fierce fighting in Gaza’s northern communities – which also impeded polio vaccination.

The six week Israel-Hamas ceasefire, that began on 19 January, has also created a much better opportunity for vaccination teams to reach areas that were missed during the October round.

“In 2024, health workers faced significant challenges accessing certain areas of central, north and south Gaza, which required special coordination to enter during the conflict,” the WHO/UNICEF statement noted. “In inaccessible areas such as Jabalia, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun where humanitarian pauses for the vaccination campaign were not assured, approximately 7,000 children missed vaccination during the second round. The recent ceasefire means health workers have considerably better access now. ”

It’s also clear that the UN health agencies are moving quickly in order to seize the moment of relative calm. The first six-week ceasefire period ends next weekend.

And it almost fell apart last week when Hamas momentarily said it was pausing release of the next three Israeli hostages – before finally going ahead with their release on Saturday, 15 February, as planned.  This Saturday, Hamas has even speeded up the pace, saying it will release the last of the six living Israeli hostages set to be released in this phase of the deal – instead of the three to which it was committed by the agreement.  The bodies of eight deceased Israeli hostages are also to be released before the initial six-week period of calm ends on March 1 next weekend.  Although the two parties have pledged to preserve the peace as long as negotiations for a second phase are continuing, those talks are expected to be even more complex than the first stage agreement, which took months to reach.

All in all, some 33 Israeli hostages are due to be released in the six-week cease-fire. In exchange for each Israeli released, Israel has been releasing some 30–50 Palestinians held in Israeli jails. Israel has also pulled its forces back from the Netzarim corridor that blocked Palestinian movement from southern to northern Gaza, last autumn, as well as from Gaza’s Rafah cross with Egypt, and allowed a surge of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Doron Steinbrecher, among the first three, of 33 Israeli hostages to be released during the current cease-fire deal, was turned over to the Red Cross on Sunday, January 19.

However, big question marks remain over the future of the present truce.  After the the next pending hostage releases are completed, Hamas will continue to hold over 58 Israelis, young civilian men and soldiers, less than half of whom may really be alive.  Those remaining hostages will only be released as part of a permanent ceasefire deal. At the same time, Israel’s government has said that it won’t agree to a permanent arrangement that leaves Hamas in power in Gaza – although neither Israel nor Arab mediators have so far come up with an alternative governance plan.

And while there is wide support among the Israeli public for the continuation of the ceasefire so that all hostages are released, government hardliners are pressing for a return to war. To complicate negotiations on a second phase even more, United States President Donald Trump has shocked and alienated both Palestinians and the Arab world with his recent declarations that Gazans should be evacuated so that the area can be turned into a “Riviera” under US control – something that would be illegal under international law.

Against this very uncertain future, next week’s polio campaign will unroll. WHO said all Gaza children under 10 years of age will be targeted with a second, or even a third, polio vaccine:  “The upcoming vaccination campaign aims to reach all children under 10 years of age, including those previously missed, to close immunity gaps and end the outbreak. The use of the oral polio vaccine will help end this outbreak by preventing the spread of the virus. An additional polio vaccination round is planned to be implemented in April.”

It added that “there is no maximum number of times a child should be vaccinated. Each dose gives additional protection which is needed during an active polio outbreak.”

Image Credits: WHO, Middle East Eye , @nabilajamal.

Callie Weber, Dr Jackson Otieno, Amref’s Dr Mercy Mwangangi and Reach52’s Ben Kamarck

KIGALI, Rwanda – Confronted by a huge and growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), governments worldwide are under pressure to devote more of their domestic budgets to these illnesses.

Patients carry the burden of both the diseases and an estimated 60% of the cost of treating these, which include cardiovascular disease, cancer and diabetes.

Yet the sheer range of diseases, the high cost of NCD medicines and treatment and an apparent lack of donor interest in NCDs are daunting obstacles. (Only around 3% of official development assistance goes to NCDs.)

Ahead of the United Nations High-Level Meeting (HLM) on NCDs in September, NCD advocates want governments to commit to concrete implementation targets in whatever declaration is adopted.

Civil society organisations meeting at the NCD Alliance Forum in Kigali last week discussed various options for governments to increase domestic resources for NCDs, which are responsible for almost three-quarters deaths each year. 

Despite Africa’s youthful population, 37% of deaths on the continent are due to NCDs – and this is growing annually. Cardiovascular diseases such as strokes and heart attacks have overtaken tuberculosis and respiratory infections as the biggest killer on the continent.

Various possibilities exist for bolstering countries’ domestic resources for NCDs, including excise taxes, pooled procurement with other countries to bring down medicine prices and incentives to encourage the private sector to invest in NCDs.

Excise taxes are a win-win

If the excise taxes currently imposed on tobacco, alcohol and sugary drinks are increased by 50%, this would save 50 million lives over the next 50 years, said Vital Strategies CEO Mary-Ann Etiebet, quoting research from the Task Force on Fiscal Policy for Health.

Aside from deterring people from consuming these unhealthy products, these taxes could raise over $3.5 trillion in five years which could be ploughed back into NCD prevention, treatment and care.

Many governments have not embraced these taxes thanks to intense lobbying by the tobacco, alcohol and junk food companies.

Removing government subsidies for harmful products such as oil or sugar can also improve the overall pool of financing available for health, said Kimberly Green, PATH’s global director of primary health care and part of the Coalition for NCDs Access to Medicinces and Products (Coalition4NCDs).

But this too faces huge industry pushback.

Forecasting demand

For Green, “one of the fundamental challenges is demand forecasting”. Governments need to identify their priority NCDs and project how many people will be affected over the next five to 10 years.

“Without this, it is impossible to know how much medicine they will need. This is a fundamental gap yet demand forecasting has been very well done in HIV, TB and malaria,” said Green.

The Coalition4NCDs has developed a forecasting tool that it has shared with some parliamentarians to enable them to increase the budget for NCDs

But Rwanda’s Dr Evode Nyibizi warned that accurate data alone is not enough.

His country’s health system is fully digitised, so financial decisions are based on data fed from all tiers of the health system.

“In 2023, we were only utilising around 10% of the data that we collected on daily basis. So we established the National Health Intelligence Centre, which is helping us to draw insights from the data that we collect,” said Nyibizi, who heads the centre.

“The centre tells you what the problems are and where you need to invest your money,” Nyibizi explained.

Particularly in light of the global health financing crisis experienced by the withdrawal of United States aid, many countries need to reprioritizing where “the small amount of money left goes”, he added.

PATH’s Kimberly Green and MedAccess’s Mayank Anand

Creating demand

But even before demand forecasting, Ben Kamark’s organisation, Reach52, works to generate demand for essential health products to reach the 52% of the world who don’t have access to these.

“Out-of-pocket markets have peculiar market dynamics. They get stuck in a vicious cycle. Every distributor, every seller of pharmaceutical products, is incentivized to sell less products at a higher price,” explained Kamarck. 

“So they come into the market with a higher price, expecting a lower demand. But a higher price leads to lower demand, which also importantly, leads to lack of investment.”

Insulin is an example of a product for which the price is higher than it should be because demand is lower than it should be, he explained.

“Then the market doesn’t move. We believe that the only way to actually intervene in an out-of-pocket market is to be a market participant.”

And it takes a lot of risks. Reach52 launch medicines at prices that “would make sense in high volumes, even when there aren’t high volumes”, said Kamarck. 

They register products “that no one’s asking for and no one’s wanted, because we know there’s a need for them”.

Then Reach52 runs “hyper-targeted public health interventions and healthcare provider engagement” to create demand and drive sales of essential medicines.

“That’s a hard choice to make for a lot of private sector companies,” admitted Kamarck.

Reach52 runs “hyper-targeted public health interventions and healthcare provider engagement” to create demand and drive sales of essential medicines.

Reducing risks

Mayank Anand works for MedAccess, a social finance company established in 2017 with the support of donors, health advocacy organisations and pharmaceutical companies. 

Its aim is to reduce the risks in the NCD treatment supply chain for suppliers and procurers through volume guarantees, procurement guarantees, and concessionary loans.

“We’ve has done 11 guarantees so far across areas such as TB, HIV, malaria, syphilis, and COVID-19 with range of partners such as the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI),” he explained.

“A volume guarantee is a backstop agreement between ourselves and supplier where we assure sales volumes over a period of two to six years in return for the supplier bringing the price down to an affordable price, but also making commitments to accelerate registration in markets,” said Anand.

The 11 deals done so far has enabled half a billion people to get access to medicines.

Another public-private partnership is the Financing Accelerator Network for NCDs (FAN), a new initiative started by Access Accelerated, the World Bank, and Results for Development (R4D), aimed at building sustainable health financing systems for NCDs.

Leadership is at the centre

Amref Health Africa’s Dr Mercy Mwangangi injected come realism into discussions by pointing out that almost 80% of the $9.8 trillion spent annually on health is spent in the global North.

In Kenya, where she is based, the per capita expenditure is $90 whereas in the US, it is $14,000.

“How do we ensure that drugs are available to the American who is spending $14,000 are also available to the Kenyan, where there’s a $90 spent every year?” she asks.

Aside from lack of finances, health systems also have to be ready to roll out medicines should innovative finances make them available, she adds.

Can a country screen for cancer? Does it have a national registry of the burden of disease?  Do supply chains work so that citizens can access care? Are the legal and regulatory frameworks amendable to access to medicines? 

To spell out the challenges, Mwangangi gave a rundown of Amref’s engagements with pharmaceutical company Roche to enable Kenyans to get access to the breast cancer drug, Herceptin.

“From the initiation of those conversations to having patients access these commodities took about two years of back-to-back conversations with government players, procuring agencies and with repayment systems,” she said.

Despite this energy investment, the programme has stalled because facilities are not able to pay the procuring agency for the medicine that they have been issued with.

“Leadership and governance is at the centre of innovative financing,” stressed Mwangangi.

Image Credits: Reach52.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (right) opens the 13th round of the pandemic talks, flanked by co-chair Anne-Claire Amaprou

“It’s now or never,” World Health Organization (WHO) Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyussus told the start of the 13th round of talks on a pandemic agreement on Monday morning.

Five days of talks are scheduled this week with another five days scheduled in April. Thereafter, the plan is for an agreement to be presented at the World Health Assembly in May.

Those close to the process said that the “stock take” this Friday will be an important gauge of whether the talks will succeed.

Negotiators’ failure to reach agreement may mean the end of the road for the global endeavour to pandemic-proof the world. Energy and interest in the talks have waned considerably over the four-plus years of talks.

“I’m confident that you will choose ‘now’, because you know what is at stake. You remember the hard-won lessons of COVID-19, which left an estimated 20 million of our brothers and sisters dead,” said Tedros.

“We know that the next pandemic is a matter of when, not if. There are reminders all around us – Ebola, Marburg, measles, mpox, influenza and the threat of the next Disease X,” he added.

“No country can protect itself by itself. Bilateral agreements will only get you so far. Prevention is the responsibility of all countries. Preparedness is the responsibility of all countries, and response is the responsibility of all countries.” 

The US, although still technically part of the WHO until next January, informed the WHO last Friday (14th) that it would not take part in the Intergovernmental Negotiating Body (INB) overseeing the talks.

Trump’s executive order withdrawing the US from WHO explicitly states that “while the withdrawal is in process, the US will cease negotiations on the WHO Pandemic Agreement and the amendments to the International Health Regulations [IHR], and actions taken to effectuate such agreement and amendments will have no binding force on the United States.” 

“Like the [US] decision to withdraw from WHO, we regret this decision and we hope the US will reconsider,” Tedros told the INB.

Moving away from grandstanding?

INB co-chairs Precious Matsoso (left) and Anne-Claire Amprou.

INB co-chair Precious Matsoso told the meeting that the Bureau, which co-ordinates the talks, had taken heed of countries’ request to “propose text for all the outstanding work”.

“We did just that, and we’re hoping that, with what we’ve presented before you, to be able to move as fast as possible because we’ve got only 10 [negotiating] days left before we present the pandemic agreement to the World Health Assembly,” said Matsoso.

The latest draft of the pandemic agreement reflects that pathogen access and benefits sharing (PABS) and One Health remain sticking points. 

Matsoso also urged member states at the opening to confine their comments to the text at hand rather than making general comments – and for the first time, the open session was not dominated by repetitive grandstanding. 

With only Iran using the opening to make a general point, member states’ restraint is a positive indication that countries may finally be moving away from rigidly held positions.

Equity and solidarity

Stakeholders, who are not allowed into the negotiations, used their time slots during the open session to appeal for the deal to be struck, for equity to remain a cornerstone and to advocate for technology transfer to prepare for pandemics.

“Do not walk away from this vital mission,” urged the Pandemic Action Network’s Rafael Garcia Aceves.

“Bank and build on the promising consensus agreed thus far. Continue to advance a pandemic agreement that can lay the essential groundwork for equitable collective preparedness and response in 2025, which can be made stronger and more detail added in future through protocols.”

Ellen ‘t Hoen of Medicines Law and Policy.

Ellen ‘t Hoen of Medicines Law and Policy said that “more than ever, the world needs a signal that multilateralism works, that solidarity is at the core of the pandemic agreement and that no country will be left alone to deal with pandemics, either current or future ones”.

“That is not the predominant spirit in Geneva – or the world for that matter – at the moment, but you can bring it back.”

Spark Street senior researcher Elliot Hannon warned that “the world has changed immeasurably” since the last negotiating session in December before US President Donald Trump took over.

“The global multilateral system is under siege, threatening the very institutions developed to promote and protect health around the world,” said Hannon.

“The pandemic agreement is a concrete action against this great dismantling. Its completion would not only make the world safer but affirm the commitment to equity, integrity and solidarity,” said Hannon, adding that trying to perfect every aspect of the agreement was an unaffordable luxury.

The South Centre stated that, “without legal commitments to enhance sharing of technology and know how, and surge financing, it will not be possible to ensure timely global production of and equitable access to effective vaccines during pandemics, as during COVID-19.

The South Centre said that a “democratic vote” was the way forward to settle “divergencies” rather than “continuously” watering down the text down “to find consensus”, deferring  decisions “to uncertain future negotiations or decisions by the Conference of the Parties”.

Jamie Love

Knowledge Ecology International’s Jamie Love pointed out that the agreement’s definition of “technology transfer” was weaker than that permitted by US and European law, while, Oxfam’s Mogha Kamal-Yanni called for the agreement to contain “legal obligations” to share technology and remove intellectual property barriers.

This round of talks ends on Friday evening.

Dr. Sania Nishtar, Chief Executive Officer, Gavi, in Cairo.

In a breakthrough moment for Africa’s vaccine independence, two landmark deals could help put the continent on a path to becoming a producer, not just a buyer, of life-saving vaccines.

For the first time, an end-to-end mRNA vaccine production platform will be built in Africa, with plans to manufacture 100 million doses annually. A separate cross-continental partnership is advancing homegrown mRNA technology. These landmark agreements, signed in Cairo, are backed by a $1.2 billion investment from Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance. They aim to ensure vaccines are made by Africa, for Africa, and set the stage for expanded local vaccine production and cross-continental collaboration.

The first deal, signed in Cairo on the sidelines of the 2nd Vaccine & Other Health Products Manufacturing Forum, brings together EVA Pharma (Egypt) and European biotech firms DNA Script (France), Quantoom Biosciences (Belgium), and Unizima (Belgium) to establish Africa’s first “digital-to-biologics” end-to-end mRNA vaccine production platform. The facility is expected to produce up to 100 million vaccine doses annually, a significant boost for Africa’s ability to respond rapidly to infectious disease outbreaks and strengthen routine immunization programs.

2nd Vaccine Manufacturing Forum

In a second agreement, Biogeneric Pharma (Egypt) and Afrigen (South Africa) will expand their collaboration on mRNA vaccine technology development, reinforcing cross-continental expertise in cutting-edge mRNA vaccine applications to new diseases that have a high burden in Africa. 

“These agreements are proof that Africa is no longer just a buyer of vaccines—we are becoming producers,” said Dr. Jean Kaseya, Director-General of Africa CDC, at the conference’s closing ceremony. “This is the future of health security on the continent.”

Gavi’s $1.2 Billion Investment to Drive Manufacturing Growth

Afrigen’s mRNA hub in Cape Town, launched in February 2022, and now set to expand.

The two deals were announced alongside a broader effort to accelerate vaccine manufacturing in Africa, backed by a $1.2 billion investment from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

The catalytic investments, recruited for Gavi’s newly formed African Vaccine Manufacturing Accelerator (AVMA), launched in June 2024, will be deployed over the next ten years to incentivize African manufacturers to produce priority vaccines, such as cholera and mRNA-based immunizations. AVMA leverages Gavi’s role as one of the world’s largest purchaser of vaccines to promote local manufacturing in Africa. Crucially, Gavi’s financial model ensures that licenses are held by African manufacturers, keeping intellectual property and production capacity on the continent.

“This is about building a sustainable vaccine ecosystem in Africa,” said David Kinder, Director of Development Finance at Gavi. “We are using our market power to drive investment where it’s most needed—ensuring Africa can produce its own vaccines, for its own people.”

Securing Demand and Regulatory Readiness

BioNTech’s modular mRNA vaccine manufacturing opened in Rwanda in 2023.

At present, while demand for vaccines in Africa is valued at over US$ 1 billion annually – Africa’s vaccine industry provides only around 0.1% of global supply. The African Union has set a target for the continent to produce 60% of the vaccines it needs by 2040.

While some new investments in vaccine production were made on the wave of interest created by the COVID pandemic, such as the Afrigen mRNA research hub, launched with WHO support in 2022, and BioNTech’s modular mRNA vaccine facility, in Rwanda, African manufacturers still face a major challenge: securing stable demand. Historically, global health agencies and African governments have sourced vaccines from long-established manufacturers in the Global North, leaving local producers struggling to compete.

To address this, officials at the Cairo summit called for a continent-wide pooled procurement mechanism, modeled after Egypt’s Unified Procurement Authority (UPA). Egypt’s system has successfully lowered costs and stabilized supply chains, and experts believe a similar approach at the African Union level could ensure consistent demand for vaccines produced within Africa.

“We must ensure that African-made vaccines have a guaranteed market,” said Dr. Khaled Abdel Ghaffar, Egypt’s Minister of Health and Population. “A pooled procurement system could be a game-changer, ensuring fair pricing and sustainability.”

Another critical issue discussed at the forum was Africa’s regulatory capacity. While manufacturing is expanding, vaccines must meet strict international quality standards to be used across the continent and beyond.

In December 2024, Egypt achieved WHO’s Maturity Level 3 in terms of the quality of its national regulation of vaccines and medicines – following South Africa, which reached that milestone in 2022.  The African Medicines Agency (AMA) , still in the process of establishment, is supposed to lead effort to harmonize regulatory approvals across Africa, making it easier for locally made vaccines to reach wider markets. See related stories here:

African Medicines Agency Countdown

Gavi’s Replenishment and Africa’s Push for Funding

The investments in African manufacturing come at a pivotal moment for Gavi, which is seeking $9 billion in new funding for 2026-2030 to sustain its work in Africa and beyond.

At the Cairo forum, African leaders threw their support behind Gavi’s replenishment effort, pushing for global donors to meet the funding target.

“We need a well-funded Gavi,” said Dr. Kaseya, who pledged to push for African leaders to back Gavi’s funding request at the upcoming African Union Assembly.

Momentum for local vaccine production will continue in June 2025, when Africa’s first annual vaccine and biopharmaceutical manufacturing exhibition, Africa Excon, will be held in Egypt. The event will showcase progress in local production and attract investment, ensuring Africa’s vaccine ambitions continue to gain traction.

Despite the challenges, leaders at the Cairo summit were optimistic about the future. “We are no longer just talking about vaccine sovereignty,” Dr. Kaseya said in his closing remarks. “We are making it happen.”

Image Credits: Rodger Bosch for MPP/WHO, BioNTech.

A tuberculosis patient in Mozambique who completed treatment thanks to a USAID-supported health worker. USAID administers all US bilateral aid for fighting TB.

A coalition of American non-profit, legal and small business groups welcomed a federal judge’s temporary restraining order (TRO) halting the Trump Administration’s executive order freezing virtually all USAID activities – followed by a “stop work” order on the agency by new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 

The ruling Thursday evening in a Washington DC District Court came in response to a lawsuit filed by the Global Health Council, the Small Business Association for International Companies, HIAS, the Jewish-American refugee aid agency; and the American Bar Association.

“This ruling is a vital first step toward restoring U.S. foreign assistance programs,” said Elisha Dunn-Georgiou, President of the Global Health Council, a member based body. “It clears the path for organizations to resume their life saving work, showcasing the best of American values: compassion, leadership, and a commitment to global health, stability, and shared prosperity.”

In their suit, the groups contended that by attempting to dismantle an independent agency established by Congress, the Trump Administration was “unlawfully withholding billions” in foreign aid. 

“The Administration has forced businesses large and small to shutter programs and lay off employees. These actions have caused widespread harm, weakening the infrastructure needed to combat mounting global health crises including bird flu, measles, and drug-resistant tuberculosis—diseases that have surfaced in the U.S.—and leaving hungry children without food, vulnerable populations without critical medical aid, and communities without life-saving support,” the charged the plaintiffs in the suit, which included Management Sciences for Health, Chemonics International, DAI Global, and Democracy International – non-profit and for-profit groups that are major USAID subcontractors.

Impacts and ongoing uncertainties 

MANA Nutrition Factory in Fitzgerald, Georgia, which produces specialized nutritious foods to treat acute malnutrition. Among the thousands of US businesses affected by the USAID freeze.

On paper, the TRO blocks the government from taking actions that would disrupt U.S. foreign assistance programs including:

  • Suspending, pausing, or otherwise preventing the obligation or disbursement of appropriated foreign-assistance funds in connection with any contracts, grants, cooperative agreements, loans, or other federal foreign assistance award that was in existence as of January 19, 2025; or
  • Issuing, implementing, enforcing, or otherwise giving effect to terminations, suspensions, or stop-work orders in connection with any contracts, grants, cooperative agreements, loans, or other federal foreign assistance award that was in existence as of January 19, 2025.

However, with USAID personnel around the world on forced furloughs, budget systems frozen, and grain donations rotting in US ports, it remained unclear if a temporary order, on its own, could rapidly reboot the massive $40 billion-a year apparatus  – including $8.5 billion in global health assistance. 

“Despite the restraining order, much of the damage to US foreign assistance and to our agencies and humanitarian workers is already done. Within a matter of weeks, the President has succeeded in all but decimating USAID and has perhaps irreparably damaged the goodwill and reputation of the United States,” said Lawrence Gostin of Georgetown University.

“It is hard to describe the chaos at USAID, with funds frozen, staff let go, and partners all over the world feeling shattered. Even foreign aid programs that have received a waiver from the freeze cannot carry out their functions. This has caused enormous human suffering and hardship, with children starving and at risk of stunting, persons living with HIV unable to access their medications, and humanitarian assistance at a grinding halt,” he added, citing a recent article in the peer-reviewed journal Health Affairs.

Gostin, who heads a WHO Collaborating Center on law and global health policy, was pessimistic about the possibility of legal action changing policies in the long-term, saying, “no matter what the courts ultimately do, the harms will be real and palpable. And in the end, the President will probably prevail in the courts. He may be forced to actually follow a logical process and not be arbitrary and capricious. He may have to unfreeze funds until he can get Congress to join him in decimating USAID. But the president has a highly compliant Supreme Court that seems to back him on almost anything consequential.”

Pressure growing on  Trump administration 

At the same time, the pushback, coming from multiple corners could help swing the pendulum back over time.  “Some push back is good and in the end things will not be as bad as first thought,” one USAID insider, speaking confidentially, told Health Policy Watch

Pressures are building, for instance, from farmers in so-called “Red” or Republican states, who sell hundreds of millions of dollars in grain to USAID and, via USAID, to the World Food Programme (WFP) every year, to feed hungry people around the world. Ambassadors, who see USAID as a vital form of “soft power” for the US in the geopolitical competition with China, Russia and Islamic extremists, are also likely to protest quietly.

“I have been waiting for the agriculture sector to weigh in. They will take a big hit from the President’s actions,” Gostin said. While WFP said on Tuesday that its deliveries of food aid stuck in US ports were allowed to resume on 11 February, the Trump-ordered pause in new food aid purchases and stop work orders on new WFP purchases has remained in effect.

Biggest provider of global health foreign aid

“By attempting to dismantle an independent agency established by Congress and unlawfully withholding billions in foreign-assistance funding, the Administration has forced businesses large and small to shutter programs and lay off employees,” said the Global Health Council in its statement on the temporary restraining order.

“These actions have caused widespread harm, weakening the infrastructure needed to combat mounting global health crises including bird flu, measles, and drug-resistant tuberculosis—diseases that have surfaced in the U.S.—and leaving hungry children without food, vulnerable populations without critical medical aid, and communities without life-saving support.”  

USAID implements most US global health funding.

With a global health budget of $8.5 billion annually, USAID is the largest US provider of global health assistance, far outpacing the Department of Health and Human Services, and PEPFAR, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.  In fact, USAID implements most US bilateral global health funding, including 60% of  PEPFAR’s $4.2 billion budget for HIV/AIDS in 2023. 

Along with the already well-reported impacts of USAID’s collapse in battles against infectious diseases like polio, HIV/AIDS, influenza, malaria, marburg and Ebola, there has been a ripple effect to an even broader range of activities related to global health security,  health services, and nutrition, the GHC noted in a briefing note issued last week. Some of those include: 

  • A halt to the flow in over $1 billion in pharmaceutical donations, including HIV drug supplies; as well as USAID facilitated global biotech and research partnerships with US companies; 
  • Interruption in the services of thosuands of maternal and child nutrition centers; care for pregnant women and orphans; in conflict zones and the world’s poorest countries.
  • A halt to USAID support for thousands of frontline health clinics in vulnerable countries and conflict zones, including: Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of Congo; Guatemala and Honduras.

For maternal and child health and TB, USAID was the implementer of all US bilateral support in 2023. It also managed 99% of family planning and reproductive health funds and 96% of funds for malaria control efforts.

CDC finally reports on avian flu spread   

CDC finds vets working with dairy cattle unknowingly exposed to H5N1 avian flu.

In other developments, the US Centers for Disease Control, finally issued an update on Avian flu to its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), which showed that some veterinarians working with cattle were unknowingly infected with the H5N1 (avian flu) virus last year.

The report is the latest to indicate that the outbreak in dairy cattle is spreading further under the wire. The CDC report was one of several MMWR reports on avian flu that were to have been released three weeks ago. 

Inother report published this week, the CDC cited new USDA data on the rapid spread of H5N1 bird flu in poultry, showing some 157 million birds have so far been affected, since the first detections in 2022. The outbreak has caught the attention of the US public as the price of eggs soars to a 50-year high. 

Avian flu continues to spread amongst US poultry flocks.

States can opt out of testing dairy cattle for avian flu 

As for the dairy herds, USDA tables and maps showing trends in the spread of the highly pathogenic virus in dairy herds, across different states, which typically linked to the MMWR reports were no longer visible on the web page.  The USDA pages have not been updated since 17 January.  

But even that data, when available, was incomplete since federal law allows states to opt out of testing dairy cattle, noted Kay Russo, a dairy and poultry veterinarian.  He said the new CDC report on the silent spread of the virus among veterinarians underscores an urgent need for more routine monitoring of animals in agriculture.

“The frequency may be insufficient to proactively warn and safeguard workers,” Russo told the Washington Post

“This is a critical worker safety issue for farm and processing plant workers,” said Russo, who has worked on the outbreak since last March. “I can’t help but feel we’re missing huge pieces of the puzzle at this time.”

Updated 16 February, 2024

Image Credits: Arnaldo Salomão Banze, ADPP Mozambique, USAID, KFF , US CDC , US CDC .