Mpox Spread in Uganda is ‘Concerning’, as Rwanda Reports a Few More Marburg Cases 31/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Dr Yvan Butera, Minister of State in Rwanda’s health ministry, is vaccinated with Sabin’s experimental vaccine. The spread of mpox in Uganda is “of great concern”, with some 830 recorded cases in 19 states, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC). Uganda’s first recorded case was in Nakasongola Prison in Central Uganda, but new cases have been reported close to the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) while “new clusters” in fishing communities are a cause for concern, Dr Ngashi Ngongo, Africa CDC’s mpox lead, told a media briefing on Thursday. In the past week, 61 new cases were confirmed and one death, he added. Unlike the DRC where children make up half the mpox cases, only 12,5% of Uganda’s mpox cases are children. The majority, 63%, are adult men and clade 1b, which can be sexually transmitted, is the dominant strain. Meanwhile, Mauritius has recorded its first mpox case – and the UK recorded its first case of Clade 1b case in someone who recently travelled to a country with mpox, said Ngongo. The continent’s weekly case tally increased by 2,766 cases – a similar increase to previous weeks. The vast majority of cases are in the DRC and Burundi. Almost 900,000 mpox vaccines have been distributed to nine countries, with vaccination campaigns going well in the DRC and Rwanda. However, Nigeria postponed its planned vaccination campaign this week. Four more Marburg cases Meanwhile, Rwanda recorded four new Marburg cases in the past two weeks – a health worker (reported on last week) and three contacts of other cases, according to Dr Yvan Butera, Minister of State in the health ministry. Two people have also died in the past week. Rwanda has confirmed 66 Marburg cases and 15 deaths reported, a case-fatality rate of around 23%. Close to 6,000 people have now been tested while close to 1,600 frontline workers have been vaccinated, said Butera. The source of the outbreak has been traced to fruit bats in a mine near Kigali, which infected the index case who had visited the mine. The Sabine Vaccine Institute has sent a further 1,000 of its investigational vaccines to Rwanda, the company reported on Thursday. These will be used for a randomized clinical trial arm within the ongoing open-label study. Previously, Rwanda had rejected the World Health Organization (WHO) protocol, which would have involved a control group that got vaccinated three weeks after the trial group, according to the journal, Science. Instead, Rwanda opted to vaccinate all trial participants “as part of a Phase 2 rapid response open-label trial, sponsored by the Rwanda Biomedical Centre”, according to Sabin. “Under the updated protocol, sponsored by the Rwanda Biomedical Center, approximately 1,000 at-risk individuals, including mine workers, will receive Sabin’s single-dose investigational vaccine in a one-to-one randomization. Half will receive the vaccine immediately, and the other half 21 days later to align with the end of the disease incubation period,” according to Sabin. Designed to prevent illness before exposure to the virus, Sabin’s Marburg vaccine has not yet been proven to have clinical benefit for recipients of the vaccine. Image Credits: Sabin Vaccine Institute. Global Stockpile is Empty, But Cholera Vaccines Are Being Shipped to Outbreaks 31/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan A Sudanese child gets an oral cholera vaccine. While the global stockpile of oral cholera vaccines (OCV) has been empty since mid-October, vaccine doses are being produced each week and shipped directly to countries in need, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). “As soon as adequate quantities are produced, they are shipped to countries in need. This is why the stockpile can remain at zero for long periods. It does not mean that there is no production,” a WHO spokesperson clarified to Health Policy Watch after reporting on 18 October that the stockpile was empty. This year, 30 countries have reported cholera outbreaks involving over 430,000 people which is driving demand for the vaccines. Pharmaceutical company EuBiologics in the Republic of Korea is the only company currently producing cholera vaccines under the brand name, Euvichol. However, the WHO prequalified a simplified oral cholera vaccine in April, which will “nearly double the available doses from around 45 million this year to about 90 million by 2026”, according to the spokesperson. “But the current increase will not fully address the existing vaccine gap. The demand remains exceptionally high and is still growing, despite the increase in production.” Huge demand The global stockpile of the oral cholera vaccine was established in 2013 with two million doses. By 2023, this had expanded to 36 million doses. The stockpile is overseen by the International Coordinating Group on Vaccine Provision (ICG) consisting of the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Médecins Sans Frontières, UNICEF, and WHO. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance pays for the vaccine and its distribution to all eligible countries. “The ICG has approved 14 million cholera doses for outbreak response over the last two months, a volume that represents twice the size of the current stockpile,” according to a Gavi spokesperson. “However, while there may be short periods where all available doses are allocated to specific country requests, the stockpile is continually replenished on a rolling basis by the manufacturer.” Investments made by Gavi and its partners to increase the volume and speed of supply have halved the timeline needed for replenishing the global vaccine stockpile this year. Gavi expects close to three million new doses to be made available this week, seven million in November, and six million in December, “all ready to be shipped to countries that may request them for ongoing outbreaks”. “In April we welcomed the arrival of a new OCV, Euvichol-S which enabled EuBiologics, its manufacturer, to produce more volumes of vaccine, faster, and at a lower cost – a key step to expanding supply amidst the ongoing acute global upsurge of cholera outbreaks,” said the Gavi spokesperson. “The global availability of OCV has once again shown an annual increase from 38 million doses in 2023 to approximately 50 million in 2024, and is further expected to increase again in 2025, to 70 million doses,” said Gavi. However, creating both sustainable and predictable demand for OCV, and supporting efforts towards long-term control by launching preventive programmes in endemic countries, is vital for controlling the disease, Gavi notes. Image Credits: WHO. As Election Draws Close, Trump Groups Push Hard Against Abortion, LGBTQ Rights in Africa 30/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Institute of Women’s Health’s Anita Mpambara Cox, former Trump officials Alma Golden and Valerie Huber and Burundi’s First Lady, Angeline Ndayishimiye, meet in Washington, DC. Post 2020, ex-Trump officials have worked through NGOs to undermine abortion and LGBTQ rights in Africa, preparing the ground for his re-election Despite Donald Trump’s electoral defeat as US president in 2020, his ex-officials and allies have never stopped campaigning for African countries to prevent abortion and LGBTQ rights – in league with some of the most right-wing countries on the planet, including Russia and Hungary. If Trump is re-elected on 5 November, he is likely to entrench opposition to abortion as a key pillar of US foreign aid. Project 2025, the controversial conservative blueprint for a Trump victory written primarily by his former officials, proposes that all US aid including humanitarian assistance, is conditional on the rejection of abortion. “Proposed measures for USAID [US Agency for International Development] include a significant restructuring, and reduction of budget, the removal of diversity, equity, and inclusion programs, and dismantling of the apparatus that supports gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights,” notes researcher Malayah Harper in an analysis of Project 2025. ‘Sending people to their deaths’ “The return of Trump, at a time when nationalist African presidents are also prosecuting women and queer people, means sending these groups to their death,” observes Saoyo Tabitha Griffith, a Kenyan high court lawyer and women’s rights activist. “This is not alarmist. It is purely informed by the observation of past patterns,” she tells Health Policy Watch. One of Trump’s first presidential actions in 2017 was to prohibit foreign NGOs from receiving US government funding for health if they “provided, promoted, or discussed” abortion – known as the Expanded Global Gag Rule (GGR). Many family planning organisations lost their funding and women lost access to contraception in some of the continent’s poorest countries such as Madagascar and Ethiopia – ironically contributing to more unplanned pregnancies. Banning abortion has never stopped it But abortion bans have never stopped women and girls from trying to end unwanted pregnancies. It has simply driven them to unsafe providers whose methods often maim and even kill them. Approximately 6.2 million women and girls had abortions in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2019, and the region has the highest rate of unplanned pregnancies and abortion-related deaths in the world – 185 maternal deaths per 100,000 abortions, according to Guttmacher. While the percentage of women in Sub-Saharan seeking abortions has remained constant, the number of abortions has surged with population growth. When Trump was elected, Griffith was deputy head of the Kenya Legal and Ethical Issues Network on HIV and AIDS (KELIN) which works on HIV and women’s issues. “After the Expanded Gag Rule, we saw the deaths of sex workers. We saw the deaths of women who needed safe abortions. People died because service delivery programmes shut down,” she said. Trump’s administration also cut funding to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), effectively shrinking the budget of the global sexual and reproductive health agency by around 7%. This affected the provision of maternal and reproductive health services throughout the world – particularly in humanitarian settings. Trump also froze the US contributions to the World Health Organization (WHO) in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, Republican congressional lobbying even put the brakes on the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), claiming – incorrectly – that some grant recipients were promoting abortion. As a result of the right-wing lobby, PEPFAR projects now receive yearly budgets instead of five-year funding. Ex-Trump officials prepare ground for his re-election While legal abortion is out of the reach of most African women and girls, 19 African countries have eased access since 1994 – mostly in an attempt to reduce the maternal deaths caused by unsafe abortions. But US groups have stoked opposition to easing abortion access in Africa, led most recently by Valerie Huber, the Trump-era Special Representative for Global Women’s Health, and Alma Golden, ex-Assistant Administrator for Global Health at USAID. Huber was the architect of an anti-abortion pact, the Geneva Consensus Declaration (GCD), adopted in the dying weeks of Trump’s rule in October 2020 with the support of an array of global human-rights polecats such as Iraq, Uganda, Belarus and Sudan. The GCD also promotes “the natural family” – primarly aimed at removing any recognition of the existence of LGBTQ people. When Biden withdrew the US from the GCD in 2020, Hungary took over the secretariat. However, Trump has confirmed that the US will rejoin the pact if he is elected “to reject the globalist claim of an international right to abortion”. “Under my leadership, the United States will also rejoin the Geneva Consensus Declaration, created by my administration and signed by 36 nations, to reject the globalist claim of an international right to abortion.” pic.twitter.com/1r4R4l23Pg — Team Trump (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@TeamTrump) September 20, 2023 After Trump’s defeat, Huber and Golden launched an NGO called the Institute for Women’s Health (IWH) in 2021, to seek support for the GCD. The IWH is on Project 2025’s advisory board. Its Africa coordinator is Phillip Sayuni, a Ugandan anti-gay pastor, while its international programmes director, Anita Mpambara Cox, is a Ugandan American who sought election as a Republican Senator in 2022. Valerie Huber addressing the fourth anniversary of the anti-abortion pact, the Geneva Consensus Declaration, in Washington DC, in September in front of the flags of signatories, including Iraq, Belarus, Benin and Hungary. In the past year, the IWH has persuaded Burundi and Chad, countries with poor human rights records, to sign the GCD. Burundi only allow abortion to save the life of a pregnant woman, not even allowing it in cases of rape and incest. Women who have abortions face prison sentences. The military dictatorship in Chad allows abortions to save a woman’s life and in cases of rape and incest. Since forming IWH, Huber has courted several right wing African governments, including Sudan, South Sudan, Mali, Burkino Faso and Tanzania, but her closest links are with the Ugandan government. Ms. Valerie Huber, President and C E O of the prestigious Institute for Women’s Health, headquartered in Washington, D.C. is currently visiting Burundi since this sunday May, 5 2024. She traveled with her Executive Operator for Africa Mr Philip. pic.twitter.com/1fmShe0TCP — OPDD-Burundi (@OPDD_Burundi) May 5, 2024 Support from US conservative Christian groups Supporting Huber’s anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ crusade is a phalanx of conservative US NGOs active in Africa, particularly Family Watch International (FWI), headed by conservative Mormon Sharon Slater. FWI has been pushing the same agenda in Africa for over 20 years, and Slater and Huber both work closely with Ugandan First Lady Janet Museveni. Several of these US groups also oppose contraception and sex education for school children known as “comprehensive sexuality education”. The African spending of 17 conservative US Christian organisations known for opposing sexual and reproductive rights, including FWI, almost doubled after Trump’s 2020 defeat. FWI’s spending increased by 495%, albeit off a low base. The 17 groups spent about $16.5 million in Africa between 2019 and 2022, with almost a third ($5.2 million) in 2022, the year after Biden took office, according to the Institute for Journalism and Social Change (IJSC). Institute for Journalism and Social Change (IJSC) Importing US anti-LGBTQ laws A group of US anti-rights groups have worked with conservative African politicians for decades to encourage laws that crack down on the very existence of LGBTQ people across the continent. In the past year, Uganda and Ghana have passed draconian anti-LGBTQ laws with the encouragement of these US groups, particularly FWI. US conservative Christian group Family Watch International leader Sharon Slater (centre, black dress) meets Uganda’s first lady, Janet Museveni (centre, white skirt) in April 2023 to encourage the passage of the country’s Anti-Homosexuality Bill. FWI was one of the driving forces behind the recent Inter-Parliamentary Conference on Family Values and Sovereignty, which also received a $300,000 boost from the Russian government, according to a recent Wall Street Journal exposé. The conference also featured speakers who attacked routine vaccination campaigns and the World Health Organization (WHO), as previously exposed by Health Policy Watch. However, its main agenda was to galvanise support from politicians across Africa for anti-LGBTQ, anti-abortion legislation. The government of Kenyan President William Ruto, the country’s first evangelical leader, is considering “family values” laws to crack down on LGBTQ people and even make divorce more difficult. Copycat laws from US Kenyan LGBTQ activist Āryā Jeipea Karijo says that parts of her country’s anti-LGBTQ Bill are “a direct copy” of US anti-transgender bills. Two concerns in the Bill – transgender people’s access to bathrooms and minors transitioning – “are not contextual to Kenya’s state of access to water as well as to meeting healthcare needs of transgender people”, Karijo says. Kenya is struggling to provide adequate toilets in many schools and there is very little opportunity for adults to transition, let alone minors, she explains to Health Policy Watch. “A side-by-side reading of US anti-transgender legislation and sections of the anti-LGBTQ laws that have been passed in Ghana, Uganda, and are proposed for Kenya, show that the authors are the same, and they are definitely not from the continent,” adds Karijo. Meanwhile, Namibian LGBTQ activist Omar van Reenen notes that “anti-rights groups in the US share resources, strategies and rhetoric internationally”. “The transnational exchange of anti-rights ideologies imported from American evangelical groups and NGOs like Family Watch International are alive and well,” said Van Reenen in a recent interview with the journal, Transcript. Griffith sounds a grim warning if Trump wins the US election: “African women and LGBTQ people must anticipate that Trump’s return will re-ignite an ideological war with real and physical consequences on their bodies. “Issues such as contraceptives, surrogacy, single parenting, safe abortion, HPV vaccines and sexual orientation are all going to be contested, not through science and data but by conspiracies and misinformation.” Image Credits: IJSC. WHO Report Reveals Tuberculosis as 2023’s Deadliest Infectious Disease 29/10/2024 Maayan Hoffman In Pakistan, a healthcare worker listens to a child’s lungs for signs of pulmonary tuberculosis. Shaka Brown was diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) in November 2023. “I was dropped off at the emergency room in Miami, Florida,” he recalled. “In September, I thought I’d caught the flu, but after weeks of night sweats, fainting spells, and losing my hearing in my left ear—and over 50 pounds—I knew something was wrong.” Brown underwent ultrasounds, X-rays, and a battery of tests within hours of arriving. Then, the doctors delivered the news: he had TB. “I told them no one gets TB,” he said. But Brown was quickly moved to a negative-pressure isolation room. “It turned out they were right. I had TB everywhere.” Shaka Brown The bacteria had spread from Brown’s lungs to nearly every organ in his body, including his bladder, brain, and spine. The infection had compromised his lower spine, causing sharp pain down his leg. “The hospital had a molecular diagnostic machine, which helped them quickly figure out that I needed a specialised drug regimen. The standard treatment wouldn’t work for me,” he said. “I started life-saving antibiotics the next day—over 15 pills every day. The TB growth was halted within a week. I remember slowly opening my eyes, surrounded by doctors who told me I was going to make it. It was only then I realised how close I’d come to not making it.” Despite daily pills, four months later, Brown was back in the hospital, this time with seizures and unable to speak. “The TB in my brain wasn’t going away as quickly as they hoped,” Brown said. A week later, he underwent brain surgery to remove the infection. His doctors added anti-seizure medication to his TB regimen. “They told me they’d stick with me every step of the way,” he added. However, as Brown highlighted Tuesday during a presentation of new TB data by the World Health Organization (WHO), not everyone shares his good fortune. “Twenty percent of people who get TB are never diagnosed and, therefore, never treated,” he said. “If we could just identify and treat those individuals, we could save lives. Every person we miss gives the bacteria a chance to evolve, weakening the effectiveness of current treatments. Yet, funding for research to develop effective drugs is decreasing.” TB is top infectious disease killer in 2023 World Health Organization’s 2024 Global Tuberculosis Report. Brown’s message was underscored by the WHO’s release of its 2024 Global Tuberculosis Report. The 68-page report offers comprehensive data on TB trends and the global response, covering 215 countries and regions, including all 193 WHO member states. It provides the latest insights into the TB epidemic, tracking global, regional, and national progress, along with the impact of key factors driving the disease. In 2023, TB reclaimed its position as the world’s leading infectious disease killer, following three years when COVID-19 took the lead. It caused almost twice as many deaths as HIV/AIDS. Specifically, there were an estimated 1.25 million deaths in 2023, including 161,000 amongst people with HIV. “The fact that TB still kills and sickens so many people is an outrage, when we have the tools to prevent it, detect it and treat it,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general. “WHO urges all countries to make good on the concrete commitments they have made to expand the use of those tools, and to end TB.” Globally, the number of deaths caused by TB fell in 2023, reinforcing the decline seen in 2022 after increases during the worst years of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the number of people contracting TB rose slightly to approximately 8.2 million, the highest number recorded since WHO began global TB monitoring in 1995. This represents a notable increase from the 7.5 million reported in 2022. Of those who developed TB, 55% were men, 33% were women, and 12% were children and young adolescents. While TB occurs worldwide, 87% of cases in 2023 came from 30 high-burden countries. The majority of new TB cases were in Southeast Asia (45%) and Africa (24%), with smaller percentages in the Western Pacific (17%), Eastern Mediterranean (8.6%), the Americas (3.2%), and Europe (2.1%). Eight countries accounted for two-thirds of the total: India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Several major risk factors drive a significant portion of TB cases, including undernutrition, HIV infection, alcohol use disorders, smoking (especially amongst men), and diabetes. Since 2000, TB prevention and treatment efforts have saved 79 million lives. The global gap between estimated TB cases (incidents) and reported new diagnoses (notifications) narrowed to about 2.7 million in 2023, down from around 4 million in 2020 and 2021 and below the pre-pandemic level of 3.2 million in 2019. Drug-resistant TB remains a serious public health threat, said Dr. Tereza Kasaeva, WHO’s Global TB Program director. Presenting the data to health officials and the press on Tuesday alongside Brown, she noted that in 2023, 175,923 people were diagnosed and treated for multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB)—just 44% of the estimated 400,000 cases worldwide. Trial Finds Four New Treatment Options for Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Kasaeva said progress toward global TB milestones and targets is lagging, including those set for 2027. Global funding for TB prevention and care dropped in 2023. Of the $22 billion target, only $5.7 billion was received—just 26% of the goal, with low- and middle-income countries bearing 98% of the TB burden. “With only 26% funding, it’s impossible to provide 100% access for everyone in need,” Kasaeva said. Domestic sources provided 80% of TB funding, while international funding for low- and middle-income countries has held steady at around $1.2 billion per year. Funding for TB research also remains critically low at around $1 billion per year—just a fifth of what’s needed. “This is absolutely insufficient,” Kasaeva said. “We are confronted with a multitude of formidable challenges: funding shortfalls and catastrophic financial burden on those affected, climate change, conflict, migration and displacement, pandemics, and drug-resistant tuberculosis, a significant driver of antimicrobial resistance,” Kasaeva added. “It is imperative that we unite across all sectors and stakeholders, to confront these pressing issues and ramp up our efforts.” ‘We can end TB’ Cheri Vincent, TB Division Chief at the US Agency for International Development (USAID) The United States is the largest bilateral donor to global TB efforts, thanks to bipartisan support from Congress, explained Cheri Vincent, TB Division Chief at the US Agency for International Development (USAID), who also spoke on Monday. Since 2000, USAID has invested $4.7 billion in the fight against TB. “We have a global TB strategy for 2023 to 2030 that focusses on our 24 priority countries,” Vincent said. The strategy aims to ensure that 90% of people with TB, including drug-resistant TB, are diagnosed and treated. It also seeks to provide preventive treatment for 30 million people eligible for it. “While it’s heartening to see some positive trends in our battle against TB, we must confront a harsh reality: despite our efforts, we are merely treading water, failing to make significant strides toward our goal of ending TB,” said Dr Cassandra Kelly-Cirino, executive director of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, in response to the report. “To create a world free from TB, we must urgently address the areas where we continue to fall short.” She added, “We’re diagnosing only 48% of the individuals needed to meet the 90% target. This is unacceptable. We must ramp up testing, ensure timely diagnosis, and support effective treatment to turn these numbers around and accelerate the reduction in the global TB incidence rate.” Similarly, Peter Sands, executive director of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, stated, “The big message from this year’s World TB Report is that if we act decisively, we can end TB.” “We have momentum, tools, and leadership, but we need more funding—and we also need to dismantle human rights and gender-related barriers that prevent people from accessing the services they need,” he continued. “Winning will take political will and sustained commitment. In a world facing increasing challenges from conflict and climate change, we cannot hesitate.” Image Credits: Stop TB Partnership, Shaka Brown's official website, World Health Organization. New Food Guidelines Aim to Clarify What Constitutes a ‘Healthy’ Diet 29/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy The joint statement comes as the science on the effects of ultra processed foods continues to evolve. Diets should be guided by four key principles, say the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) in a joint statement released this week. Their statement highlights the importance of adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse food intake, and aims to clarify what exactly a healthy diet means. “With such prominence in the scientific literature and public media has come a range of definitions and perspectives about what constitute healthy diets, and how these can be achieved, while protecting the environment,” the FAO said in an introduction to the statement. Unhealthy diets are a lead driver of non-communicable diseases like heart disease, obesity, and diabetes. FAO and WHO released the statement alongside this year’s annual meeting of the Committee on World Food Security, where stakeholders gathered to strengthen policy responses to food crises, and the Convention on Biodiversity in Cali, Colombia. Both events prompted the FAO and WHO to clarify the idea of a “healthy diet” while celebrating the “diversity of healthy dietary patterns.” Skirting questions about ultra-processed foods Ultra processed foods are linked to adverse health outcomes, yet it may take several more years for regulatory bodies to issue guidelines on UFP consumption. Food intake should be adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse, according to the statement. Diets should provide enough nutrients in a moderate and balanced way, with a wide-variety of nutrients across food groups. With daily media coverage of dietary advice, scientific studies on the ‘best’ diets, and the growing threat of climate change on food systems, the statement’s simple message consolidates several decades of scientific research Yet the statement acknowledges that further research is needed before issuing recommendations, especially on ultra-processed foods (UFP), including sugar-sweetened beverages and desserts, dyed snacks, and processed meats. More than 50% of energy intake comes from UFP in high-income countries, and this trend increasingly mirrored in lower- and middle- income countries. “It’s probably going to take another several years to have a sufficient evidence base,” noted Dr JoAnn Manson, a physician and researcher at Harvard, in a recent STAT news article. In the meantime, the WHO and FAO recommended “considering moderation” of UFP. Other regulatory bodies, including the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Health and Human Services (HHS), are set to issue their own dietary guidelines by the end of the year. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025-2030, edition, will also likely not include definitive advice about UFP. Image Credits: Scott Warman/ Unsplash, Leon Ephraim/ Unsplash. Global Emissions Set to Fall 2.6% by 2030 – 40% Short of Paris Agreement Target 28/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Climate plans ‘miles short’ of averting catastrophe, UN climate chief warns ahead of COP29. Global climate plans will cut emissions by just 2.6% by 2030, falling 40% short of what’s needed to keep a future within the Paris agreement’s 1.5C goal alive, according to a report released Monday by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The combined emissions cut by the national climate plans, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), have increased by a mere 0.6% since last year, an insignificant change that will not affect global warming trajectories, the UN climate body said in its annual assessment ahead of next month’s COP29 summit in Baku. “Current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country, said Simon Stiell, UNFCCC’s executive secretary. “Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.” As countries prepare to update their climate pledges ahead of next year’s COP30 in Brazil, time is running out to take the existential scale of the threat seriously. Since COP28, where countries adopted the UAE consensus reaffirming the 1.5ºC target established in 2015, only one nation has submitted updated climate plans under the treaty framework. World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action The UNFCCC’s dire assessment mirrors findings released last week by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), which reported that no policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented globally in 2023, putting the world on course for “catastrophic” warming of 3.1ºC by the end of the century. UNEP maintains that the 1.5ºC target – which its director called “one of the greatest asks of the modern era” – remains “technically possible” if there is “immediate global mobilisation on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” With global emissions set to exceed 1.5ºC of warming by 2050 – and a one-in-three chance of breaking 2ºC – UNEP’s chief called for a “quantum leap” in climate policy. Stiell echoed this urgency, demanding an immediate end to the “era of inadequacy” — and for “a new age of acceleration” to begin at next month’s COP29. “The last generation of NDCs set the signal for unstoppable change,” Stiell said. “New NDCs next year must outline a clear path to make it happen – by scaling up renewable energy, strengthening adaptation and accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies everywhere.” The latest warning shot Carbon dioxide is building up in Earth’s atmosphere at rates never before seen in human history, WMO reported Monday. With COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, just weeks away, a raft of new climate research has reinforced the alarm bells set off by the UNFCCC’s findings. Planet-warming greenhouse gases surged to record highs in 2023, reaching levels unprecedented in human history, new data released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) revealed on Monday. The UN weather agency found carbon dioxide concentrations rose more than 10% in the past decade, while methane and nitrous oxide, short-lived but powerful greenhouse gases, also saw significant increases. Carbon dioxide levels are now 51% higher than in pre-industrial times, when humans began burning fossil fuels at scale, while methane levels have risen 161% and nitrous oxide 25% over the same period, locking Earth’s atmosphere into a warming trajectory for at least the lifecycle of these gases. “Another year. Another record,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo. “These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.” “This should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers,” Saulo said. Carbon dioxide is accumulating “faster than any time experienced during human existence” due to “stubbornly high fossil fuel” emissions, widespread forest fires, and a likely reduction in the ability of natural carbon sinks — such as oceans and forests — to absorb CO2, WMO said. The 2023 increase of 2.3 parts per million marked the 12th straight year of rises above 2ppm – a rate of increase that would have taken centuries to occur naturally before industrialization. “The record levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere are the logical outcome of the record amounts of greenhouse gases that our economies continue to dump into our ambient air,” Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and lead author of the report, told the Guardian. “This doesn’t need to be the end of the story.” Earth’s systems near breaking point The WMO report raises fresh alarms about nature’s carbon sinks — oceans, forests, plants and soil that absorb carbon dioxide — and it isn’t alone. Earlier this month, international researchers released preliminary findings indicating forests, plants and soil absorbed almost no net carbon in 2023, suggesting they could be nearing a tipping point. These natural buffers, long taken for granted in climate models, may be failing. Earth’s natural carbon sinks absorb nearly 50% of our carbon emissions, and their collapse could be catastrophic and rapidly accelerate global warming beyond current worst-case scenario projections. “We see a sudden drop of the land carbon sinks from extreme warming and Amazon mega-drought,” said Philippe Ciais, one of the report’s lead authors. “If this decline continues, we may see a rapid acceleration of CO2 and global warming which was unforeseen in future climate models’ projections.” Collapse of Atlantic current Meanwhile, 40 of the world’s leading experts on ocean and climate science penned an urgent open letter presented at the Arctic Circle conference in Iceland last week warning that the risk of collapse of a vital Atlantic current system, known as the AMOC, has been “greatly underestimated.” The collapse of this system, one of the planet’s largest arteries transporting heat around the world’s oceans, would have “potentially catastrophic consequences” and trigger “devastating and irreversible climate impacts,” the letter warned. The worst impacts would be felt in Nordic countries and “potentially threaten the viability of agriculture in northwestern Europe,” while global impacts would include reduced CO2 absorption by oceans, major sea-level rise, and a shift in tropical rainforest belts, meaning rains would no longer fall on the forests they keep alive – triggering droughts above rainforests vital to absorbing CO2 – and flood the new regions they settle over. “This has happened repeatedly in Earth’s history, most recently during the last ice age,” Stefan Rahmstorf, a signatory of the open letter and head of the Earth system analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in an interview with the Guardian. “These are among the most massive upheavals of climate conditions in Earth’s history,” Rahmstorf said. “I am now very concerned that we may push Amoc over this tipping point in the next decades. If you ask me my gut feeling, I would say the risk that we cross the tipping point this century is about 50/50.” “We don’t know where the tipping point is.” Image Credits: RecondOil. Nations Deadlocked Over Health-Biodiversity Framework at COP16 26/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Negotiations continue on health provisions in biodiversity plans as the UN summit in Cali reaches its midpoint. Only 35 countries have submitted the national strategies required by the UN biodiversity treaty showing how they’ll meet its binding nature protection targets. While 33 of these plans recognise links between human health and biodiversity, they offer few specifics on implementation and policy, a Health Policy Watch analysis found. Negotiators in Cali aim to bridge the gap this week by adopting a global health action plan under the treaty that provides a roadmap for meeting its health protection requirements. Midway through the UN biodiversity summit COP16 in Cali, Colombia, delegates from nearly 200 countries remain deadlocked over rules to protect human health from Earth’s mounting ecological crisis. UN Environment chief Inger Andersen urged delegates Thursday to break the impasse over the Global Action Plan on Biodiversity and Health, which would align conservation efforts with human health priorities as nations wrestle with implementing the landmark 2022 Montreal biodiversity treaty. “Our health cannot be separated from the health of the planet and its many species,” she told delegates in Cali. “We must adopt this action plan and implement it with a holistic, systemic approach that unifies action across health, environment, finance, industry and agriculture.” Over the weekend Biodiversity deal seeks health rules – but keeps them voluntary The world agreed to protect nature in Montreal two years ago. Now in Cali, countries must figure out how. The proposed framework would strengthen the 2022 Kunming-Montreal biodiversity agreement – nature’s equivalent to the Paris Climate Accord – which committed 197 nations to protect 30% of Earth’s land and seas by 2030, but left crucial health provisions largely undefined. While the Convention on Biodiversity itself is legally binding, the proposed health framework would serve as a voluntary roadmap for nations. It calls for health impact assessments in land-use planning, disease surveillance where habitat loss is rapid, and stricter wildlife trade rules — measures experts say are vital to prevent pathogens spreading from wild animals to human communities and food markets. The framework also emphasises protecting genetic resources crucial for new medicine development and ensuring vulnerable populations have access to nature’s health benefits. The push comes amid controversy at the UN biodiversity summit over countries’ rights to demand “benefit sharing” when genetic resources, including digital sequences, are used in drug development — a fight at the frontiers of biodiversity science that nearly derailed the landmark 2022 Montreal agreement. Beyond the fight over genetic resources, nations broadly agree on the framework’s other targets: combating vector-borne diseases emerging from shrinking habitats, reducing chemical exposure from industry, and protecting communities from the toxic toll of mass pesticide use. If approved, the plan’s voluntary nature, combined with history, suggests an uphill battle: the world has not met a single UN biodiversity goal since talks began in Nairobi over 30 years ago. Sweeping New Global Biodiversity Deal Sets Out Plan for Sharing Gene Sequences The health focus at the UN biodiversity summit reflects a broader shift in environmental diplomacy, marked by the first-ever Health Day at UN climate talks (COP28) in Dubai last year. While biodiversity has long been valued for medical discoveries — nearly half of all pharmaceuticals in use today are originally derived from nature — scientists increasingly see ecosystem protection as vital for preventing disease outbreaks, controlling disease vectors, and limiting chemical exposure. Biodiversity loss and climate change have emerged as the leading drivers of infectious diseases worldwide, amplifying 58% of outbreaks. The mounting threat is forcing policymakers to reckon with an increasingly inescapable truth: human survival depends entirely on Earth’s life-sustaining systems — clean water, air, and food. “Framing biodiversity as a resource – something separate, something that gives – has led to humanity converting nature, driving species to extinction, polluting ecosystems and pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” Andersen said. “But humanity is not separate from or above biodiversity. And in a closed system such as Earth, what goes around comes around.” Deep divisions over superbug prevention and drug development mirror COP16 tensions The Biodiversity-Health framework is one of the most contested documents being negotiated at COP16 in Cali, Colombia this week, according to Carbon Brief. The 24-page Biodiversity-Health framework is as one of the summit’s most contested documents, with 54 bracketed sections exposing fundamental disagreements between nations. The disputed clauses reflect wider fault lines in Cali. Nations remain divided over whether to classify improperly disposed antibiotic waste – a key driver of antimicrobial resistance – as “pollution” alongside microplastics and heavy metals. Proposals to “avoid the inappropriate use and disposal” of antibiotics are also unsettled, despite safe disposal practices being critical to preserving the efficacy drugs that save hundreds of millions of lives annually. The sharing of benefits from genetic resources is another flashpoint. Developing nations demand strong commitments on technology transfer, while wealthy countries insist such transfers must remain “voluntary.” Nations with major pharmaceutical industries have pushed also back against draft language that would hold companies accountable for “the misappropriation of genetic resources and digital sequence information and associated traditional knowledge. A crucial sticking point centres on whether to include “derivatives” and “subsequent applications and commercialisation” – essentially determining if companies must share benefits when they develop new products based on initial discoveries. Without such provisions, firms could potentially avoid sharing profits from derivative drugs or applications. Finance – the dominant issue of COP16’s opening week – is another key battleground in the health framework. Nations have yet to approve clauses that would provide financial support to developing countries, which host most of the world’s biodiversity, for implementing plans to protect it. Of the few plans submitted, most consider health Of 35 submitted biodiversity plans, Western Europe leads with 13, followed by Asia-Pacific with 10, while Africa filed 5, Latin America 4, and Eastern Europe 3, according to the COP16 database. National biodiversity plans submitted before this week’s summit in Colombia summit reveal wide variations in scope and specificity for how countries intend to tackle environmental protection and human health concerns, a Health Policy Watch analysis of the COP16 database found. Only 35 nations – just 18% – submitted biodiversity strategies, known as NBSAPs in UN jargon, by Monday’s UN summit deadline. All but Mexico and Jordan included human health concerns in their plans. The submitted plans reflect clear regional priorities. European Union members emphasize a comprehensive “one health” approach that links human, animal and environmental welfare, focusing heavily on pesticide and chemical pollution regulation – areas where the EU leads global policy. Colombia’s strategy takes a different focus, centering on health impacts from extractive industries, particularly mercury contamination from mining. In contrast, China and South Korea’s plans barely mention health, making single references to urban green spaces’ benefits for respiratory and mental health. These varied approaches come as research increasingly links ecosystem destruction to public health crises, from floods to disease outbreaks. Scientists have documented two virus spillovers to humans annually over the past century, culminating in the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Health Organization projects climate change could cause 250,000 additional deaths yearly between 2030-2050. Antimicrobial resistance already claims 1.4 million lives annually, while environmental degradation could cause 39 million deaths from 2025-2050. The proposed health framework, though voluntary, would set higher standards than current national plans. “From the air we breathe to the water we drink, our health is tied to the health of the planet,” said UN Environment chief Andersen. “We need a plan to protect biodiversity for the health of all species on earth.” Critical regions and powers missing from submissions While most nations haven’t submitted biodiversity plans required by the Montreal deal, officials say the two-year timeline was ambitious given ecosystem complexity, especially in regions like the Amazon. Of the 17 nations hosting 70% of Earth’s biodiversity, only five have filed plans: Australia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Mexico. The crucial Amazon region is represented solely by Suriname, with no submissions from Congo Basin nations. The G7 economic powers showed limited participation, with only Canada, Italy, France and Japan meeting the deadline. Among G20 members, Brazil indicated it needs more time to develop its long-term conservation strategy, while India plans to announce its commitments during the summit. “The start was never going to be fast. I think the important thing we’re looking at is the work is underway,” UN biodiversity chief Astrid Schomaker told Carbon Brief about the limited submissions. “Whether the deadline itself is met on the dot is not what I think we’re really looking at,” Schomaker said, adding she is “confident” this work is taking place globally. “I think our assessment is globally positive.” Biodiversity and health deal advances, but key framework still faces hurdles Negotiations on biodiversity and health took a step forward on Sunday as the second working group’s chair presented a draft decision – a document separate from but related to the broader biodiversity and health action plan. While the draft includes a provision to adopt the action plan, this remains in brackets, indicating no consensus has yet been reached among member states. The draft makes several key advances, eliminating previous disputes over antimicrobial disposal protocols and removing qualifiers that made technology sharing optional. It also strengthens provisions for Indigenous peoples’ participation in global biodiversity initiatives and decision-making forums. However, several contentious issues from the main biodiversity framework remain unresolved. These include questions of pharmaceutical companies’ liability regarding genetic resource usage and digital sequence information, whether derivatives and commercial applications should be included in fair and equitable benefit-sharing arrangements, and the creation of international oversight mechanisms to ensure countries meet their biodiversity and health commitments. Finance remains a critical hurdle in the health and broader COP16 negotiations. While eight nations boosted the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund this week with pledges totaling $163m, bringing available funding to $400m, this falls dramatically short of global needs. The Kunming-Montreal agreement calls for $200bn annually for nature protection – 500 times the current fund’s total, which isn’t even structured as yearly financing. Though there is broad agreement on the principle of financial support from development banks and environmental funds, the mechanisms for distribution remain hotly contested. As with previous UN environmental negotiations, talks may extend beyond the official Friday deadline as delegates work to bridge these remaining gaps. This article was updated to reflect progress in the negotiations Image Credits: CIFOR-ICRAF. Egyptians Still Face Barriers to Insulin Access, Despite Promises of Expanded Domestic Production 25/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy A view point in Minya Governorate. Nearly 11 million Egyptians live with diabetes, where insulin access is increasingly out of reach for those in rural areas. MINYA GOVERNORATE, EGYPT – Nine-year-old Adam needs an insulin shot before meals, and seems unphased when his father checks his sugar levels with a finger pricking. He looks away when a small blood drop wells on the tip of his finger. Adam turns back to his plate of rice and stewed vegetables, continuing to ramble about the kids in his summer camp. Both Adam and his father are diabetic in a rural village in Upper Egypt, where their struggle to access insulin mirrors a broader struggle across the country, and the continent. In a country where over 18% of adults live with diabetes, and with the number of adults living with diabetes expected to hit 20 million by 2045, diagnosis, monitoring, and medication are all difficult to come by. In response, Egypt is now taking significant steps to expand insulin access and diabetes prevention–in the context of rising prevalence. But financial and logistic barriers as well as competing political priorities still leave rural families at the ‘last mile’ of service in a precarious situation. New diagnostics more widely available – but shortages, power cuts, and inflation threaten access Moussa, with his son Adam, shows a continuous glucose monitor in their home in Upper Egypt. To address the growing health and financial burden of the disease, the Egyptian National Health Insurance system recently began to cover the initial cost of a glucometer for newly diagnosed people as well as 25 test strips per month. Yet while over-the-counter glucose monitoring ads flood US airwaves for non-diabetic consumers, many Egyptians, like people in other developing world countries, still struggle to obtain such basic devices for diabetes control. Diabetes care coverage remains below 50 percent for low- and middle-income countries, according to a Lancet estimate. Many or most low-income and informal Egyptian laborers simply don’t have health insurance while their income are not enough to afford their monthly diabetes supplies, notes T1 International, a non-profit diabetes care advocacy group: “It can cost someone more than 50% of their salary to get the basic diabetes supplies,” said Dr Mohamed Shabeen in a T1 article. Moussa’s stash of insulin pens and glucose monitors for the village. Paying for test strips, monitors, and insulin are just one part of the country’s $3 billion diabetes-related annual health expenditure. The International Diabetes Federation estimates this number will rise to $4.5 billion by 2045, a concern given Egypt’s rising national debt and economic woes – with the Egyptian pound devalued by more than 50 percent and food inflation over 60 percent. There are also indirect costs for diabetics. For instance, Adam’s parents enrolled him in a pricier private school, over fears that in the overcrowded public schools, Adam could go into insulin shock unnoticed. “I was worried he would go into a ketone coma (ketoacidosis),” said Moussa, Adam’s father, and English teacher who is one of the few-college educated people in his village of some 2,000 people. “I became diabetic in 2018, Adam in 2019. I noticed a lot of the same symptoms. “When he was diagnosed, I did so much research. I had to learn about the condition because there is so little information for people with diabetes.” Moussa ended up buying a Freestyle Libre glucose monitoring system so Adam could attend school uninterrupted, but it soon became too expensive “and we’re facing a shortage.” Villages, in Minya Governorate, like Moussa’s, struggle with affording insulin – and keeping it refrigerated during power outages. There are several other people living with diabetes in his village, Moussa explained, and they have formed a network, providing each other with valuable social support. “We have a WhatsApp group. If someone has extra medication, they give it to me and then I distribute it to others that need it.” The summer, however, was especially challenging as 40 ℃ temperatures were accompanied by prolonged power cuts, threatening insulin refrigeration. Diabetes ascendant – 11 million and climbing Diabetes treatment coverage remains below 50% across a variety of metrics in low- and middle-income countries. In WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, which includes most of the Middle East and North Africa, one in six adults now live with diabetes, making it the region with the highest prevalence at 16.2% and the second highest expected increase (86%) in the number of people with diabetes.The region also has the highest percentage (24.5%) of diabetes-related deaths in people of working age. In Egypt, the country is now one of many facing a double burden of malnutrition (DBM)–where 21% of children under five are stunted yet over half of children and adolescents are overweight or obese. The country’s rapidly rising rates of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) like diabetes, heart disease, and chronic respiratory diseases means that NCDs account for 82% of all deaths in Egypt and 67% of premature deaths. Public health experts point to the region’s lifestyle changes – a diet heavy in sugar and carbohydrates, lack of exercise, and other risk factors – as fueling the rise in NCDs. New domestic insulin production in limbo A view of the village in Minya Governorate, where the growing prevalence of diabetes threatens the village’s well being. In terms of treatment, there is little local insulin manufacturing in Egypt as well as the rest of Africa, leaving people to depend on expensive, important supplies. Several big initiatives have recently been announced to change that. But their status remains unclear. In May, 2023, Eli Lilly announced a major new partnership with the Egypt-based pharmaceutical company EVA Pharma to provide the company with the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) of insulin at a “significantly reduced price.” Just last month, EVA Pharma’s CEO Dr Riad Armanious declared in a press release that “locally manufactured insulin is currently a top priority, aiming for local supply and exporting it to more than 60 countries.” However, actual rollout of the plan still appears to be in limbo, with neither company responding when asked for comment by Health Policy Watch about the status of the new manufacturing plans. That, despite an August statement by Egypt’s Minister of Health and Population Khaled Abdel Ghaffar told press that the insulin shortage “would be over within three months” and that the country would produce a million more insulin vials a month, in coming months. He blamed a foreign currency shortage for the holdup in importation of critical raw ingredients needed to expand production, but “that the problem had been solved.” Egypt is home to some 170 pharmaceutical factories – and state-owned companies already produce as much as 15 million vials yearly – but much of this also reportedly goes to export. This leaves Egyptians, who need some 27 million vials a year, in an even greater bind. Additionally, observers in the field say privately that the local products are not yet as of good quality as imported ones – something that the partnership between Eli Lilly and Eva should help address. WHO – no further details on the rollout of manufacturing Dr Loyce Pace, with WHO’s Dr Bente Mikkelsen, Africa CDC’s Dr Jean Kaseya and EVA Pharma CEO Riad Armanious at the EVA-Lilly partnership announcement last year. Asked for comment, the World Health Organization also was unable to offer further updates on a timeline for Egypt’s rollout of its much-touted expanded insulin production. WHO is not a direct partner in the Eli Lilly-Eva partnership, but it has been “actively engaging with various stakeholders, including the private sector, to fulfill commitments made in the UN Political Declaration on NCDs,” said Dr Bente Mikkelsen Director, just prior to her retirement on 1 October as head of WHO’s Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, Rehabilitation and Disability (NCD). “Several companies have responded positively to these ‘asks’, including commitments to local manufacturing,” she added, in a comment to Health Policy Watch. Meanwhile, in Minya Governorate, Moussa has been traveling more frequently to Cairo some four hours away by car “to get good healthcare” – after monitoring Adam’s symptoms, as well as his own, and their similarities. But he still hopes that he and others in his community can eventually get quality insulin and glucose monitors at a fairer price locally. “Right now, I’m getting them from Cairo, and we have to pay taxes and customs. It would be great for all these people in our community to be able to afford this as well.” Image Credits: S. Samantaroy/HPW, The Lancet. Another Rwandan Health Worker Gets Marburg, While Cases of Children Co-infected with Mpox and Measles Rise 24/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Dr Ngashi Ngongo (Africa CDC) and Dr Jean-Marie Yameogo (WHO), the continental co-leads on mpox. Rwanda has recorded its 63rd Marburg case, while cases of children coinfected with both mpox and measles are rising in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) weekly media briefing on Thursday. After 10 days of no new cases, a health worker who has been caring for Marburg patients tested positive for the virus on Wednesday night, Rwandan Health Minister Dr Sabin Nsanzimana told the briefing. But the health worker was vaccinated a few days ago and is “doing well” with disease presentation that was “not usual”, Nsanzimana added. “The good thing is that the person has been in a treatment centre and has no contacts outside the centre,” he added. Meanwhile, the source of the Marburg outbreak has been traced to fruit bats in a cave where the index case had been mining, said Nsanzimana. Once this had been confirmed, all human activity at the cave had been stopped and the government is following up on the people working there, to make sure they they don’t develop the disease, he added. Genome sequencing of the virus confirmed that it was both very close to the zoonotic source – the virus in the bats – and to other Marburg cases imported into the country. This underscored the importance of a One Health approach involving experts on human and animal health and the environment, said Nsanzimana. Mpox testing slowly improving Some 2,729 new mpox cases were reported in the past week – over 90% of which in DRC and Burundi, although Liberia, Kenya and Uganda reported new cases, according to Dr Ngashi Ngongo, Africa CDC’s lead on mpox. There has been an increase in mpox patients under the age of 15 being co-infected with measles in the DRC, particularly in Nord Kivu and Sud Kivu – but it is unclear whether one disease made children susceptible to the other. Little more than half the children in these areas have been vaccinated against measles and there is also a high malnutrition rate, which weakens the children’s immune systems, said Ngongo. “We haven’t yet established if the fact that you get measles, then increase your chances of getting mpox and vice versa,” he added. The DRC’s vaccination campaign underway in six provinces, was generally going well with over 39,000 people vaccinated. Nigeria plans to launch its vaccination campaign on 29 October. “We have 5.6 million doses of mpox vaccines that have been confirmed, of which 2.5 million are MVA-BN and three million of the LC16 from Japan,” said Ngongo. Close to 900,000 doses of MVA-BN are available this month October, with another 700,000 potentially available in November, which he described as being “enough, at least, for the moment, to cover the plans that we have received”. However, getting vaccines for children remains a challenge although World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the MVA-BN can be used “off label” for children at risk. After weeks of struggling to increase testing, there had been a 37% increase in tests in the past week – and a big jump in test positivity from 36.5% to 63%. This can be attributed to training on sample management, PCR and Gene Xpert testing, more sequencing equipment, as well as the distribution of more Gene Xperts cartridges (to run the machines), and PCR tests being set to affected countries. No new cases have been recorded in Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, Rwanda and South Africa in the past four weeks. However, surveillance has been a huge challenge, said Ngongo. Only four of the 18 affected countries had reached contact tracing targets of 10 per patient. Meanwhile, the Robert Koch Institute in Germany reported the country’s first case of mpox Clade 1b. The patient recently traveled out of the country, but it not clear where he been. Outside of Africa, Sweden and Thailand have also each reported a case of mpox 1b, the more virulent version of the . World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action 24/10/2024 Stefan Anderson No policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented worldwide in 2023. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain catastrophically off track, with current policies putting the world on course for a 3.1°C temperature rise by century’s end, the UN Environment Programme warned Thursday in its annual “Emissions Gap” report. To keep the 1.5°C target alive, nations must slash emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 – yet emissions continue to climb, hitting record highs last year. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters at the report’s launch. “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly intense climate disasters worldwide,” Guterres said. “People are paying a terrible price.” Despite a year marked by devastating hurricanes, droughts and floods, no country implemented policies “with significant implications for global emissions in 2023,” UNEP found. “Another year has passed without action, and that means we’re worse off,” said Ann Olhoff, the report’s lead scientific editor. “The findings are fairly similar to last year, apart from emissions still going up.” Twenty-nine years after international climate talks began, the sum total of global climate pledges – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would allow temperatures to rise by a “catastrophic” 2.6°C, even if fully implemented, according to the report. Most major economies, including many G20 nations, are failing to meet even these insufficient commitments – let alone achieve the 42% emissions cuts needed. By mid-century, current trajectories point to warming well above 1.5°C, with up to a one-in-three chance of exceeding 2°C. The report warns that warming is expected to intensify beyond 2100, as CO2 emissions are not projected to reach net zero under existing scenarios. Each year of delay makes the task harder: Global emissions must now fall 7.5% every year until 2035 to keep warming to 1.5 C. For a 2 C limit, yearly cuts of 4% are needed. “If we procrastinate, that figure will obviously grow with every year of inaction,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “Nations must show a massive increase in ambition in these new NDCs, accompanied by rapid delivery, or the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C will be dead within a few years.” With nations due to update their climate pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year, UNEP says this represents a make-or-break moment. The new commitments must deliver what the agency calls a “quantum leap” to avoid planetary catastrophe. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era,” Andersen said. “We may not make it. But the only certain path to failure is not trying.” Going backwards The Emissions Gap remains unchanged since UNEP issued the last edition of its annual report last year. In a year that demanded cuts, emissions instead rose 1.3% to record levels in 2023, with coal accounting for 65% of the increase, according to the International Energy Agency. While record deployments of renewable energy, nuclear power and electric vehicles helped curb emissions growth, they couldn’t keep pace with rising energy demand and the impact of severe droughts on hydropower generation. Without this rapid expansion of clean technologies, emissions growth would have been three times higher, according to IEA data. Only one pathway identified in the report halts warming beyond 2100: All 107 countries with net-zero pledges must deliver on their promises and quickly put their plans into action. This could cap warming at 1.9°C, but UNEP has “low” confidence countries will follow through. Countries accounting for 82% of global emissions have made net-zero promises, but progress has stalled. “Current policies, conditional NDCs, unconditional NDCs – in any of these scenarios, whether emissions peak and fall a small amount or plateau, all of them represent a lost decade,” said Neil Grant, a lead author of the report. “Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change.” G20 nations must ‘do the heavy lifting’ Just six countries accounted for 63% of global emissions in 2023, with the least developed nations contributing only 3%, highlighting particular concerns about inaction among major emitters, especially the G20. “We identified very few newly adopted policies [by G20 nations] underpinned by quantitative assessments that deliver considerable emission reduction impact by 2030 or beyond. This is very worrying,” said Takeshi Kuramochi, lead author of the G20 section of the report. “It’s been a calm past 12 months, in a negative way.” Seven G20 members – China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey – have not yet reached peak emissions, a pre-requisite to achieving net zero. For G20 nations that have peaked, including the US, EU, Russia and Canada, “their rate of decarbonization would need to accelerate – in some cases dramatically – after 2030 to achieve their net-zero goals unless they accelerate action now,” UNEP found. “We must remember that 1.5°C is not an on-off switch that will plunge the world into an era of darkness and chaos,” Andersen said. “We are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved.” “The G20, particularly the members that dominate emissions, need to do the heavy lifting,” Andersen added. “Climate crunch time is here.” ‘Wartime’ mobilization is required to keep 1.5C alive While there is “no chance” of limiting global warming to 1.5C under current policies, UNEP insists the target remains “technically possible” – but only through “immediate global mobilization on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” A sweeping transformation of energy, transport, and land use could cut 31 gigatonnes of CO2 annually – equivalent to 52% of global emissions – through existing technologies costing less than $200 per ton of carbon, UNEP estimates. Solar and wind energy alone could deliver 27% of required emissions cuts by 2030, rising to 38% by 2035, while forest protection and restoration could contribute another 20%. Together, these measures would deliver the steep emissions cuts scientists say are needed to keep 1.5C alive. “Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar power and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors,” Andersen said. “This is a gargantuan task that requires global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. But it does, for the moment, remain technically possible.” The price tag for this transformation is steep but achievable, according to UNEP. Annual investment in mitigation measures must increase six-fold to 11.7$ trillion per year by 2035 – approximately 10% of the global economy. “These investments don’t even take all the benefits into account and the avoided damages,” Olhoff said. “It would be very costly not to invest in a green transition.” This is a developing story and will be updated. Image Credits: Joanne Francis. 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Global Stockpile is Empty, But Cholera Vaccines Are Being Shipped to Outbreaks 31/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan A Sudanese child gets an oral cholera vaccine. While the global stockpile of oral cholera vaccines (OCV) has been empty since mid-October, vaccine doses are being produced each week and shipped directly to countries in need, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). “As soon as adequate quantities are produced, they are shipped to countries in need. This is why the stockpile can remain at zero for long periods. It does not mean that there is no production,” a WHO spokesperson clarified to Health Policy Watch after reporting on 18 October that the stockpile was empty. This year, 30 countries have reported cholera outbreaks involving over 430,000 people which is driving demand for the vaccines. Pharmaceutical company EuBiologics in the Republic of Korea is the only company currently producing cholera vaccines under the brand name, Euvichol. However, the WHO prequalified a simplified oral cholera vaccine in April, which will “nearly double the available doses from around 45 million this year to about 90 million by 2026”, according to the spokesperson. “But the current increase will not fully address the existing vaccine gap. The demand remains exceptionally high and is still growing, despite the increase in production.” Huge demand The global stockpile of the oral cholera vaccine was established in 2013 with two million doses. By 2023, this had expanded to 36 million doses. The stockpile is overseen by the International Coordinating Group on Vaccine Provision (ICG) consisting of the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Médecins Sans Frontières, UNICEF, and WHO. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance pays for the vaccine and its distribution to all eligible countries. “The ICG has approved 14 million cholera doses for outbreak response over the last two months, a volume that represents twice the size of the current stockpile,” according to a Gavi spokesperson. “However, while there may be short periods where all available doses are allocated to specific country requests, the stockpile is continually replenished on a rolling basis by the manufacturer.” Investments made by Gavi and its partners to increase the volume and speed of supply have halved the timeline needed for replenishing the global vaccine stockpile this year. Gavi expects close to three million new doses to be made available this week, seven million in November, and six million in December, “all ready to be shipped to countries that may request them for ongoing outbreaks”. “In April we welcomed the arrival of a new OCV, Euvichol-S which enabled EuBiologics, its manufacturer, to produce more volumes of vaccine, faster, and at a lower cost – a key step to expanding supply amidst the ongoing acute global upsurge of cholera outbreaks,” said the Gavi spokesperson. “The global availability of OCV has once again shown an annual increase from 38 million doses in 2023 to approximately 50 million in 2024, and is further expected to increase again in 2025, to 70 million doses,” said Gavi. However, creating both sustainable and predictable demand for OCV, and supporting efforts towards long-term control by launching preventive programmes in endemic countries, is vital for controlling the disease, Gavi notes. Image Credits: WHO. As Election Draws Close, Trump Groups Push Hard Against Abortion, LGBTQ Rights in Africa 30/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Institute of Women’s Health’s Anita Mpambara Cox, former Trump officials Alma Golden and Valerie Huber and Burundi’s First Lady, Angeline Ndayishimiye, meet in Washington, DC. Post 2020, ex-Trump officials have worked through NGOs to undermine abortion and LGBTQ rights in Africa, preparing the ground for his re-election Despite Donald Trump’s electoral defeat as US president in 2020, his ex-officials and allies have never stopped campaigning for African countries to prevent abortion and LGBTQ rights – in league with some of the most right-wing countries on the planet, including Russia and Hungary. If Trump is re-elected on 5 November, he is likely to entrench opposition to abortion as a key pillar of US foreign aid. Project 2025, the controversial conservative blueprint for a Trump victory written primarily by his former officials, proposes that all US aid including humanitarian assistance, is conditional on the rejection of abortion. “Proposed measures for USAID [US Agency for International Development] include a significant restructuring, and reduction of budget, the removal of diversity, equity, and inclusion programs, and dismantling of the apparatus that supports gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights,” notes researcher Malayah Harper in an analysis of Project 2025. ‘Sending people to their deaths’ “The return of Trump, at a time when nationalist African presidents are also prosecuting women and queer people, means sending these groups to their death,” observes Saoyo Tabitha Griffith, a Kenyan high court lawyer and women’s rights activist. “This is not alarmist. It is purely informed by the observation of past patterns,” she tells Health Policy Watch. One of Trump’s first presidential actions in 2017 was to prohibit foreign NGOs from receiving US government funding for health if they “provided, promoted, or discussed” abortion – known as the Expanded Global Gag Rule (GGR). Many family planning organisations lost their funding and women lost access to contraception in some of the continent’s poorest countries such as Madagascar and Ethiopia – ironically contributing to more unplanned pregnancies. Banning abortion has never stopped it But abortion bans have never stopped women and girls from trying to end unwanted pregnancies. It has simply driven them to unsafe providers whose methods often maim and even kill them. Approximately 6.2 million women and girls had abortions in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2019, and the region has the highest rate of unplanned pregnancies and abortion-related deaths in the world – 185 maternal deaths per 100,000 abortions, according to Guttmacher. While the percentage of women in Sub-Saharan seeking abortions has remained constant, the number of abortions has surged with population growth. When Trump was elected, Griffith was deputy head of the Kenya Legal and Ethical Issues Network on HIV and AIDS (KELIN) which works on HIV and women’s issues. “After the Expanded Gag Rule, we saw the deaths of sex workers. We saw the deaths of women who needed safe abortions. People died because service delivery programmes shut down,” she said. Trump’s administration also cut funding to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), effectively shrinking the budget of the global sexual and reproductive health agency by around 7%. This affected the provision of maternal and reproductive health services throughout the world – particularly in humanitarian settings. Trump also froze the US contributions to the World Health Organization (WHO) in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, Republican congressional lobbying even put the brakes on the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), claiming – incorrectly – that some grant recipients were promoting abortion. As a result of the right-wing lobby, PEPFAR projects now receive yearly budgets instead of five-year funding. Ex-Trump officials prepare ground for his re-election While legal abortion is out of the reach of most African women and girls, 19 African countries have eased access since 1994 – mostly in an attempt to reduce the maternal deaths caused by unsafe abortions. But US groups have stoked opposition to easing abortion access in Africa, led most recently by Valerie Huber, the Trump-era Special Representative for Global Women’s Health, and Alma Golden, ex-Assistant Administrator for Global Health at USAID. Huber was the architect of an anti-abortion pact, the Geneva Consensus Declaration (GCD), adopted in the dying weeks of Trump’s rule in October 2020 with the support of an array of global human-rights polecats such as Iraq, Uganda, Belarus and Sudan. The GCD also promotes “the natural family” – primarly aimed at removing any recognition of the existence of LGBTQ people. When Biden withdrew the US from the GCD in 2020, Hungary took over the secretariat. However, Trump has confirmed that the US will rejoin the pact if he is elected “to reject the globalist claim of an international right to abortion”. “Under my leadership, the United States will also rejoin the Geneva Consensus Declaration, created by my administration and signed by 36 nations, to reject the globalist claim of an international right to abortion.” pic.twitter.com/1r4R4l23Pg — Team Trump (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@TeamTrump) September 20, 2023 After Trump’s defeat, Huber and Golden launched an NGO called the Institute for Women’s Health (IWH) in 2021, to seek support for the GCD. The IWH is on Project 2025’s advisory board. Its Africa coordinator is Phillip Sayuni, a Ugandan anti-gay pastor, while its international programmes director, Anita Mpambara Cox, is a Ugandan American who sought election as a Republican Senator in 2022. Valerie Huber addressing the fourth anniversary of the anti-abortion pact, the Geneva Consensus Declaration, in Washington DC, in September in front of the flags of signatories, including Iraq, Belarus, Benin and Hungary. In the past year, the IWH has persuaded Burundi and Chad, countries with poor human rights records, to sign the GCD. Burundi only allow abortion to save the life of a pregnant woman, not even allowing it in cases of rape and incest. Women who have abortions face prison sentences. The military dictatorship in Chad allows abortions to save a woman’s life and in cases of rape and incest. Since forming IWH, Huber has courted several right wing African governments, including Sudan, South Sudan, Mali, Burkino Faso and Tanzania, but her closest links are with the Ugandan government. Ms. Valerie Huber, President and C E O of the prestigious Institute for Women’s Health, headquartered in Washington, D.C. is currently visiting Burundi since this sunday May, 5 2024. She traveled with her Executive Operator for Africa Mr Philip. pic.twitter.com/1fmShe0TCP — OPDD-Burundi (@OPDD_Burundi) May 5, 2024 Support from US conservative Christian groups Supporting Huber’s anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ crusade is a phalanx of conservative US NGOs active in Africa, particularly Family Watch International (FWI), headed by conservative Mormon Sharon Slater. FWI has been pushing the same agenda in Africa for over 20 years, and Slater and Huber both work closely with Ugandan First Lady Janet Museveni. Several of these US groups also oppose contraception and sex education for school children known as “comprehensive sexuality education”. The African spending of 17 conservative US Christian organisations known for opposing sexual and reproductive rights, including FWI, almost doubled after Trump’s 2020 defeat. FWI’s spending increased by 495%, albeit off a low base. The 17 groups spent about $16.5 million in Africa between 2019 and 2022, with almost a third ($5.2 million) in 2022, the year after Biden took office, according to the Institute for Journalism and Social Change (IJSC). Institute for Journalism and Social Change (IJSC) Importing US anti-LGBTQ laws A group of US anti-rights groups have worked with conservative African politicians for decades to encourage laws that crack down on the very existence of LGBTQ people across the continent. In the past year, Uganda and Ghana have passed draconian anti-LGBTQ laws with the encouragement of these US groups, particularly FWI. US conservative Christian group Family Watch International leader Sharon Slater (centre, black dress) meets Uganda’s first lady, Janet Museveni (centre, white skirt) in April 2023 to encourage the passage of the country’s Anti-Homosexuality Bill. FWI was one of the driving forces behind the recent Inter-Parliamentary Conference on Family Values and Sovereignty, which also received a $300,000 boost from the Russian government, according to a recent Wall Street Journal exposé. The conference also featured speakers who attacked routine vaccination campaigns and the World Health Organization (WHO), as previously exposed by Health Policy Watch. However, its main agenda was to galvanise support from politicians across Africa for anti-LGBTQ, anti-abortion legislation. The government of Kenyan President William Ruto, the country’s first evangelical leader, is considering “family values” laws to crack down on LGBTQ people and even make divorce more difficult. Copycat laws from US Kenyan LGBTQ activist Āryā Jeipea Karijo says that parts of her country’s anti-LGBTQ Bill are “a direct copy” of US anti-transgender bills. Two concerns in the Bill – transgender people’s access to bathrooms and minors transitioning – “are not contextual to Kenya’s state of access to water as well as to meeting healthcare needs of transgender people”, Karijo says. Kenya is struggling to provide adequate toilets in many schools and there is very little opportunity for adults to transition, let alone minors, she explains to Health Policy Watch. “A side-by-side reading of US anti-transgender legislation and sections of the anti-LGBTQ laws that have been passed in Ghana, Uganda, and are proposed for Kenya, show that the authors are the same, and they are definitely not from the continent,” adds Karijo. Meanwhile, Namibian LGBTQ activist Omar van Reenen notes that “anti-rights groups in the US share resources, strategies and rhetoric internationally”. “The transnational exchange of anti-rights ideologies imported from American evangelical groups and NGOs like Family Watch International are alive and well,” said Van Reenen in a recent interview with the journal, Transcript. Griffith sounds a grim warning if Trump wins the US election: “African women and LGBTQ people must anticipate that Trump’s return will re-ignite an ideological war with real and physical consequences on their bodies. “Issues such as contraceptives, surrogacy, single parenting, safe abortion, HPV vaccines and sexual orientation are all going to be contested, not through science and data but by conspiracies and misinformation.” Image Credits: IJSC. WHO Report Reveals Tuberculosis as 2023’s Deadliest Infectious Disease 29/10/2024 Maayan Hoffman In Pakistan, a healthcare worker listens to a child’s lungs for signs of pulmonary tuberculosis. Shaka Brown was diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) in November 2023. “I was dropped off at the emergency room in Miami, Florida,” he recalled. “In September, I thought I’d caught the flu, but after weeks of night sweats, fainting spells, and losing my hearing in my left ear—and over 50 pounds—I knew something was wrong.” Brown underwent ultrasounds, X-rays, and a battery of tests within hours of arriving. Then, the doctors delivered the news: he had TB. “I told them no one gets TB,” he said. But Brown was quickly moved to a negative-pressure isolation room. “It turned out they were right. I had TB everywhere.” Shaka Brown The bacteria had spread from Brown’s lungs to nearly every organ in his body, including his bladder, brain, and spine. The infection had compromised his lower spine, causing sharp pain down his leg. “The hospital had a molecular diagnostic machine, which helped them quickly figure out that I needed a specialised drug regimen. The standard treatment wouldn’t work for me,” he said. “I started life-saving antibiotics the next day—over 15 pills every day. The TB growth was halted within a week. I remember slowly opening my eyes, surrounded by doctors who told me I was going to make it. It was only then I realised how close I’d come to not making it.” Despite daily pills, four months later, Brown was back in the hospital, this time with seizures and unable to speak. “The TB in my brain wasn’t going away as quickly as they hoped,” Brown said. A week later, he underwent brain surgery to remove the infection. His doctors added anti-seizure medication to his TB regimen. “They told me they’d stick with me every step of the way,” he added. However, as Brown highlighted Tuesday during a presentation of new TB data by the World Health Organization (WHO), not everyone shares his good fortune. “Twenty percent of people who get TB are never diagnosed and, therefore, never treated,” he said. “If we could just identify and treat those individuals, we could save lives. Every person we miss gives the bacteria a chance to evolve, weakening the effectiveness of current treatments. Yet, funding for research to develop effective drugs is decreasing.” TB is top infectious disease killer in 2023 World Health Organization’s 2024 Global Tuberculosis Report. Brown’s message was underscored by the WHO’s release of its 2024 Global Tuberculosis Report. The 68-page report offers comprehensive data on TB trends and the global response, covering 215 countries and regions, including all 193 WHO member states. It provides the latest insights into the TB epidemic, tracking global, regional, and national progress, along with the impact of key factors driving the disease. In 2023, TB reclaimed its position as the world’s leading infectious disease killer, following three years when COVID-19 took the lead. It caused almost twice as many deaths as HIV/AIDS. Specifically, there were an estimated 1.25 million deaths in 2023, including 161,000 amongst people with HIV. “The fact that TB still kills and sickens so many people is an outrage, when we have the tools to prevent it, detect it and treat it,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general. “WHO urges all countries to make good on the concrete commitments they have made to expand the use of those tools, and to end TB.” Globally, the number of deaths caused by TB fell in 2023, reinforcing the decline seen in 2022 after increases during the worst years of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the number of people contracting TB rose slightly to approximately 8.2 million, the highest number recorded since WHO began global TB monitoring in 1995. This represents a notable increase from the 7.5 million reported in 2022. Of those who developed TB, 55% were men, 33% were women, and 12% were children and young adolescents. While TB occurs worldwide, 87% of cases in 2023 came from 30 high-burden countries. The majority of new TB cases were in Southeast Asia (45%) and Africa (24%), with smaller percentages in the Western Pacific (17%), Eastern Mediterranean (8.6%), the Americas (3.2%), and Europe (2.1%). Eight countries accounted for two-thirds of the total: India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Several major risk factors drive a significant portion of TB cases, including undernutrition, HIV infection, alcohol use disorders, smoking (especially amongst men), and diabetes. Since 2000, TB prevention and treatment efforts have saved 79 million lives. The global gap between estimated TB cases (incidents) and reported new diagnoses (notifications) narrowed to about 2.7 million in 2023, down from around 4 million in 2020 and 2021 and below the pre-pandemic level of 3.2 million in 2019. Drug-resistant TB remains a serious public health threat, said Dr. Tereza Kasaeva, WHO’s Global TB Program director. Presenting the data to health officials and the press on Tuesday alongside Brown, she noted that in 2023, 175,923 people were diagnosed and treated for multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB)—just 44% of the estimated 400,000 cases worldwide. Trial Finds Four New Treatment Options for Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Kasaeva said progress toward global TB milestones and targets is lagging, including those set for 2027. Global funding for TB prevention and care dropped in 2023. Of the $22 billion target, only $5.7 billion was received—just 26% of the goal, with low- and middle-income countries bearing 98% of the TB burden. “With only 26% funding, it’s impossible to provide 100% access for everyone in need,” Kasaeva said. Domestic sources provided 80% of TB funding, while international funding for low- and middle-income countries has held steady at around $1.2 billion per year. Funding for TB research also remains critically low at around $1 billion per year—just a fifth of what’s needed. “This is absolutely insufficient,” Kasaeva said. “We are confronted with a multitude of formidable challenges: funding shortfalls and catastrophic financial burden on those affected, climate change, conflict, migration and displacement, pandemics, and drug-resistant tuberculosis, a significant driver of antimicrobial resistance,” Kasaeva added. “It is imperative that we unite across all sectors and stakeholders, to confront these pressing issues and ramp up our efforts.” ‘We can end TB’ Cheri Vincent, TB Division Chief at the US Agency for International Development (USAID) The United States is the largest bilateral donor to global TB efforts, thanks to bipartisan support from Congress, explained Cheri Vincent, TB Division Chief at the US Agency for International Development (USAID), who also spoke on Monday. Since 2000, USAID has invested $4.7 billion in the fight against TB. “We have a global TB strategy for 2023 to 2030 that focusses on our 24 priority countries,” Vincent said. The strategy aims to ensure that 90% of people with TB, including drug-resistant TB, are diagnosed and treated. It also seeks to provide preventive treatment for 30 million people eligible for it. “While it’s heartening to see some positive trends in our battle against TB, we must confront a harsh reality: despite our efforts, we are merely treading water, failing to make significant strides toward our goal of ending TB,” said Dr Cassandra Kelly-Cirino, executive director of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, in response to the report. “To create a world free from TB, we must urgently address the areas where we continue to fall short.” She added, “We’re diagnosing only 48% of the individuals needed to meet the 90% target. This is unacceptable. We must ramp up testing, ensure timely diagnosis, and support effective treatment to turn these numbers around and accelerate the reduction in the global TB incidence rate.” Similarly, Peter Sands, executive director of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, stated, “The big message from this year’s World TB Report is that if we act decisively, we can end TB.” “We have momentum, tools, and leadership, but we need more funding—and we also need to dismantle human rights and gender-related barriers that prevent people from accessing the services they need,” he continued. “Winning will take political will and sustained commitment. In a world facing increasing challenges from conflict and climate change, we cannot hesitate.” Image Credits: Stop TB Partnership, Shaka Brown's official website, World Health Organization. New Food Guidelines Aim to Clarify What Constitutes a ‘Healthy’ Diet 29/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy The joint statement comes as the science on the effects of ultra processed foods continues to evolve. Diets should be guided by four key principles, say the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) in a joint statement released this week. Their statement highlights the importance of adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse food intake, and aims to clarify what exactly a healthy diet means. “With such prominence in the scientific literature and public media has come a range of definitions and perspectives about what constitute healthy diets, and how these can be achieved, while protecting the environment,” the FAO said in an introduction to the statement. Unhealthy diets are a lead driver of non-communicable diseases like heart disease, obesity, and diabetes. FAO and WHO released the statement alongside this year’s annual meeting of the Committee on World Food Security, where stakeholders gathered to strengthen policy responses to food crises, and the Convention on Biodiversity in Cali, Colombia. Both events prompted the FAO and WHO to clarify the idea of a “healthy diet” while celebrating the “diversity of healthy dietary patterns.” Skirting questions about ultra-processed foods Ultra processed foods are linked to adverse health outcomes, yet it may take several more years for regulatory bodies to issue guidelines on UFP consumption. Food intake should be adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse, according to the statement. Diets should provide enough nutrients in a moderate and balanced way, with a wide-variety of nutrients across food groups. With daily media coverage of dietary advice, scientific studies on the ‘best’ diets, and the growing threat of climate change on food systems, the statement’s simple message consolidates several decades of scientific research Yet the statement acknowledges that further research is needed before issuing recommendations, especially on ultra-processed foods (UFP), including sugar-sweetened beverages and desserts, dyed snacks, and processed meats. More than 50% of energy intake comes from UFP in high-income countries, and this trend increasingly mirrored in lower- and middle- income countries. “It’s probably going to take another several years to have a sufficient evidence base,” noted Dr JoAnn Manson, a physician and researcher at Harvard, in a recent STAT news article. In the meantime, the WHO and FAO recommended “considering moderation” of UFP. Other regulatory bodies, including the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Health and Human Services (HHS), are set to issue their own dietary guidelines by the end of the year. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025-2030, edition, will also likely not include definitive advice about UFP. Image Credits: Scott Warman/ Unsplash, Leon Ephraim/ Unsplash. Global Emissions Set to Fall 2.6% by 2030 – 40% Short of Paris Agreement Target 28/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Climate plans ‘miles short’ of averting catastrophe, UN climate chief warns ahead of COP29. Global climate plans will cut emissions by just 2.6% by 2030, falling 40% short of what’s needed to keep a future within the Paris agreement’s 1.5C goal alive, according to a report released Monday by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The combined emissions cut by the national climate plans, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), have increased by a mere 0.6% since last year, an insignificant change that will not affect global warming trajectories, the UN climate body said in its annual assessment ahead of next month’s COP29 summit in Baku. “Current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country, said Simon Stiell, UNFCCC’s executive secretary. “Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.” As countries prepare to update their climate pledges ahead of next year’s COP30 in Brazil, time is running out to take the existential scale of the threat seriously. Since COP28, where countries adopted the UAE consensus reaffirming the 1.5ºC target established in 2015, only one nation has submitted updated climate plans under the treaty framework. World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action The UNFCCC’s dire assessment mirrors findings released last week by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), which reported that no policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented globally in 2023, putting the world on course for “catastrophic” warming of 3.1ºC by the end of the century. UNEP maintains that the 1.5ºC target – which its director called “one of the greatest asks of the modern era” – remains “technically possible” if there is “immediate global mobilisation on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” With global emissions set to exceed 1.5ºC of warming by 2050 – and a one-in-three chance of breaking 2ºC – UNEP’s chief called for a “quantum leap” in climate policy. Stiell echoed this urgency, demanding an immediate end to the “era of inadequacy” — and for “a new age of acceleration” to begin at next month’s COP29. “The last generation of NDCs set the signal for unstoppable change,” Stiell said. “New NDCs next year must outline a clear path to make it happen – by scaling up renewable energy, strengthening adaptation and accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies everywhere.” The latest warning shot Carbon dioxide is building up in Earth’s atmosphere at rates never before seen in human history, WMO reported Monday. With COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, just weeks away, a raft of new climate research has reinforced the alarm bells set off by the UNFCCC’s findings. Planet-warming greenhouse gases surged to record highs in 2023, reaching levels unprecedented in human history, new data released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) revealed on Monday. The UN weather agency found carbon dioxide concentrations rose more than 10% in the past decade, while methane and nitrous oxide, short-lived but powerful greenhouse gases, also saw significant increases. Carbon dioxide levels are now 51% higher than in pre-industrial times, when humans began burning fossil fuels at scale, while methane levels have risen 161% and nitrous oxide 25% over the same period, locking Earth’s atmosphere into a warming trajectory for at least the lifecycle of these gases. “Another year. Another record,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo. “These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.” “This should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers,” Saulo said. Carbon dioxide is accumulating “faster than any time experienced during human existence” due to “stubbornly high fossil fuel” emissions, widespread forest fires, and a likely reduction in the ability of natural carbon sinks — such as oceans and forests — to absorb CO2, WMO said. The 2023 increase of 2.3 parts per million marked the 12th straight year of rises above 2ppm – a rate of increase that would have taken centuries to occur naturally before industrialization. “The record levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere are the logical outcome of the record amounts of greenhouse gases that our economies continue to dump into our ambient air,” Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and lead author of the report, told the Guardian. “This doesn’t need to be the end of the story.” Earth’s systems near breaking point The WMO report raises fresh alarms about nature’s carbon sinks — oceans, forests, plants and soil that absorb carbon dioxide — and it isn’t alone. Earlier this month, international researchers released preliminary findings indicating forests, plants and soil absorbed almost no net carbon in 2023, suggesting they could be nearing a tipping point. These natural buffers, long taken for granted in climate models, may be failing. Earth’s natural carbon sinks absorb nearly 50% of our carbon emissions, and their collapse could be catastrophic and rapidly accelerate global warming beyond current worst-case scenario projections. “We see a sudden drop of the land carbon sinks from extreme warming and Amazon mega-drought,” said Philippe Ciais, one of the report’s lead authors. “If this decline continues, we may see a rapid acceleration of CO2 and global warming which was unforeseen in future climate models’ projections.” Collapse of Atlantic current Meanwhile, 40 of the world’s leading experts on ocean and climate science penned an urgent open letter presented at the Arctic Circle conference in Iceland last week warning that the risk of collapse of a vital Atlantic current system, known as the AMOC, has been “greatly underestimated.” The collapse of this system, one of the planet’s largest arteries transporting heat around the world’s oceans, would have “potentially catastrophic consequences” and trigger “devastating and irreversible climate impacts,” the letter warned. The worst impacts would be felt in Nordic countries and “potentially threaten the viability of agriculture in northwestern Europe,” while global impacts would include reduced CO2 absorption by oceans, major sea-level rise, and a shift in tropical rainforest belts, meaning rains would no longer fall on the forests they keep alive – triggering droughts above rainforests vital to absorbing CO2 – and flood the new regions they settle over. “This has happened repeatedly in Earth’s history, most recently during the last ice age,” Stefan Rahmstorf, a signatory of the open letter and head of the Earth system analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in an interview with the Guardian. “These are among the most massive upheavals of climate conditions in Earth’s history,” Rahmstorf said. “I am now very concerned that we may push Amoc over this tipping point in the next decades. If you ask me my gut feeling, I would say the risk that we cross the tipping point this century is about 50/50.” “We don’t know where the tipping point is.” Image Credits: RecondOil. Nations Deadlocked Over Health-Biodiversity Framework at COP16 26/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Negotiations continue on health provisions in biodiversity plans as the UN summit in Cali reaches its midpoint. Only 35 countries have submitted the national strategies required by the UN biodiversity treaty showing how they’ll meet its binding nature protection targets. While 33 of these plans recognise links between human health and biodiversity, they offer few specifics on implementation and policy, a Health Policy Watch analysis found. Negotiators in Cali aim to bridge the gap this week by adopting a global health action plan under the treaty that provides a roadmap for meeting its health protection requirements. Midway through the UN biodiversity summit COP16 in Cali, Colombia, delegates from nearly 200 countries remain deadlocked over rules to protect human health from Earth’s mounting ecological crisis. UN Environment chief Inger Andersen urged delegates Thursday to break the impasse over the Global Action Plan on Biodiversity and Health, which would align conservation efforts with human health priorities as nations wrestle with implementing the landmark 2022 Montreal biodiversity treaty. “Our health cannot be separated from the health of the planet and its many species,” she told delegates in Cali. “We must adopt this action plan and implement it with a holistic, systemic approach that unifies action across health, environment, finance, industry and agriculture.” Over the weekend Biodiversity deal seeks health rules – but keeps them voluntary The world agreed to protect nature in Montreal two years ago. Now in Cali, countries must figure out how. The proposed framework would strengthen the 2022 Kunming-Montreal biodiversity agreement – nature’s equivalent to the Paris Climate Accord – which committed 197 nations to protect 30% of Earth’s land and seas by 2030, but left crucial health provisions largely undefined. While the Convention on Biodiversity itself is legally binding, the proposed health framework would serve as a voluntary roadmap for nations. It calls for health impact assessments in land-use planning, disease surveillance where habitat loss is rapid, and stricter wildlife trade rules — measures experts say are vital to prevent pathogens spreading from wild animals to human communities and food markets. The framework also emphasises protecting genetic resources crucial for new medicine development and ensuring vulnerable populations have access to nature’s health benefits. The push comes amid controversy at the UN biodiversity summit over countries’ rights to demand “benefit sharing” when genetic resources, including digital sequences, are used in drug development — a fight at the frontiers of biodiversity science that nearly derailed the landmark 2022 Montreal agreement. Beyond the fight over genetic resources, nations broadly agree on the framework’s other targets: combating vector-borne diseases emerging from shrinking habitats, reducing chemical exposure from industry, and protecting communities from the toxic toll of mass pesticide use. If approved, the plan’s voluntary nature, combined with history, suggests an uphill battle: the world has not met a single UN biodiversity goal since talks began in Nairobi over 30 years ago. Sweeping New Global Biodiversity Deal Sets Out Plan for Sharing Gene Sequences The health focus at the UN biodiversity summit reflects a broader shift in environmental diplomacy, marked by the first-ever Health Day at UN climate talks (COP28) in Dubai last year. While biodiversity has long been valued for medical discoveries — nearly half of all pharmaceuticals in use today are originally derived from nature — scientists increasingly see ecosystem protection as vital for preventing disease outbreaks, controlling disease vectors, and limiting chemical exposure. Biodiversity loss and climate change have emerged as the leading drivers of infectious diseases worldwide, amplifying 58% of outbreaks. The mounting threat is forcing policymakers to reckon with an increasingly inescapable truth: human survival depends entirely on Earth’s life-sustaining systems — clean water, air, and food. “Framing biodiversity as a resource – something separate, something that gives – has led to humanity converting nature, driving species to extinction, polluting ecosystems and pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” Andersen said. “But humanity is not separate from or above biodiversity. And in a closed system such as Earth, what goes around comes around.” Deep divisions over superbug prevention and drug development mirror COP16 tensions The Biodiversity-Health framework is one of the most contested documents being negotiated at COP16 in Cali, Colombia this week, according to Carbon Brief. The 24-page Biodiversity-Health framework is as one of the summit’s most contested documents, with 54 bracketed sections exposing fundamental disagreements between nations. The disputed clauses reflect wider fault lines in Cali. Nations remain divided over whether to classify improperly disposed antibiotic waste – a key driver of antimicrobial resistance – as “pollution” alongside microplastics and heavy metals. Proposals to “avoid the inappropriate use and disposal” of antibiotics are also unsettled, despite safe disposal practices being critical to preserving the efficacy drugs that save hundreds of millions of lives annually. The sharing of benefits from genetic resources is another flashpoint. Developing nations demand strong commitments on technology transfer, while wealthy countries insist such transfers must remain “voluntary.” Nations with major pharmaceutical industries have pushed also back against draft language that would hold companies accountable for “the misappropriation of genetic resources and digital sequence information and associated traditional knowledge. A crucial sticking point centres on whether to include “derivatives” and “subsequent applications and commercialisation” – essentially determining if companies must share benefits when they develop new products based on initial discoveries. Without such provisions, firms could potentially avoid sharing profits from derivative drugs or applications. Finance – the dominant issue of COP16’s opening week – is another key battleground in the health framework. Nations have yet to approve clauses that would provide financial support to developing countries, which host most of the world’s biodiversity, for implementing plans to protect it. Of the few plans submitted, most consider health Of 35 submitted biodiversity plans, Western Europe leads with 13, followed by Asia-Pacific with 10, while Africa filed 5, Latin America 4, and Eastern Europe 3, according to the COP16 database. National biodiversity plans submitted before this week’s summit in Colombia summit reveal wide variations in scope and specificity for how countries intend to tackle environmental protection and human health concerns, a Health Policy Watch analysis of the COP16 database found. Only 35 nations – just 18% – submitted biodiversity strategies, known as NBSAPs in UN jargon, by Monday’s UN summit deadline. All but Mexico and Jordan included human health concerns in their plans. The submitted plans reflect clear regional priorities. European Union members emphasize a comprehensive “one health” approach that links human, animal and environmental welfare, focusing heavily on pesticide and chemical pollution regulation – areas where the EU leads global policy. Colombia’s strategy takes a different focus, centering on health impacts from extractive industries, particularly mercury contamination from mining. In contrast, China and South Korea’s plans barely mention health, making single references to urban green spaces’ benefits for respiratory and mental health. These varied approaches come as research increasingly links ecosystem destruction to public health crises, from floods to disease outbreaks. Scientists have documented two virus spillovers to humans annually over the past century, culminating in the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Health Organization projects climate change could cause 250,000 additional deaths yearly between 2030-2050. Antimicrobial resistance already claims 1.4 million lives annually, while environmental degradation could cause 39 million deaths from 2025-2050. The proposed health framework, though voluntary, would set higher standards than current national plans. “From the air we breathe to the water we drink, our health is tied to the health of the planet,” said UN Environment chief Andersen. “We need a plan to protect biodiversity for the health of all species on earth.” Critical regions and powers missing from submissions While most nations haven’t submitted biodiversity plans required by the Montreal deal, officials say the two-year timeline was ambitious given ecosystem complexity, especially in regions like the Amazon. Of the 17 nations hosting 70% of Earth’s biodiversity, only five have filed plans: Australia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Mexico. The crucial Amazon region is represented solely by Suriname, with no submissions from Congo Basin nations. The G7 economic powers showed limited participation, with only Canada, Italy, France and Japan meeting the deadline. Among G20 members, Brazil indicated it needs more time to develop its long-term conservation strategy, while India plans to announce its commitments during the summit. “The start was never going to be fast. I think the important thing we’re looking at is the work is underway,” UN biodiversity chief Astrid Schomaker told Carbon Brief about the limited submissions. “Whether the deadline itself is met on the dot is not what I think we’re really looking at,” Schomaker said, adding she is “confident” this work is taking place globally. “I think our assessment is globally positive.” Biodiversity and health deal advances, but key framework still faces hurdles Negotiations on biodiversity and health took a step forward on Sunday as the second working group’s chair presented a draft decision – a document separate from but related to the broader biodiversity and health action plan. While the draft includes a provision to adopt the action plan, this remains in brackets, indicating no consensus has yet been reached among member states. The draft makes several key advances, eliminating previous disputes over antimicrobial disposal protocols and removing qualifiers that made technology sharing optional. It also strengthens provisions for Indigenous peoples’ participation in global biodiversity initiatives and decision-making forums. However, several contentious issues from the main biodiversity framework remain unresolved. These include questions of pharmaceutical companies’ liability regarding genetic resource usage and digital sequence information, whether derivatives and commercial applications should be included in fair and equitable benefit-sharing arrangements, and the creation of international oversight mechanisms to ensure countries meet their biodiversity and health commitments. Finance remains a critical hurdle in the health and broader COP16 negotiations. While eight nations boosted the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund this week with pledges totaling $163m, bringing available funding to $400m, this falls dramatically short of global needs. The Kunming-Montreal agreement calls for $200bn annually for nature protection – 500 times the current fund’s total, which isn’t even structured as yearly financing. Though there is broad agreement on the principle of financial support from development banks and environmental funds, the mechanisms for distribution remain hotly contested. As with previous UN environmental negotiations, talks may extend beyond the official Friday deadline as delegates work to bridge these remaining gaps. This article was updated to reflect progress in the negotiations Image Credits: CIFOR-ICRAF. Egyptians Still Face Barriers to Insulin Access, Despite Promises of Expanded Domestic Production 25/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy A view point in Minya Governorate. Nearly 11 million Egyptians live with diabetes, where insulin access is increasingly out of reach for those in rural areas. MINYA GOVERNORATE, EGYPT – Nine-year-old Adam needs an insulin shot before meals, and seems unphased when his father checks his sugar levels with a finger pricking. He looks away when a small blood drop wells on the tip of his finger. Adam turns back to his plate of rice and stewed vegetables, continuing to ramble about the kids in his summer camp. Both Adam and his father are diabetic in a rural village in Upper Egypt, where their struggle to access insulin mirrors a broader struggle across the country, and the continent. In a country where over 18% of adults live with diabetes, and with the number of adults living with diabetes expected to hit 20 million by 2045, diagnosis, monitoring, and medication are all difficult to come by. In response, Egypt is now taking significant steps to expand insulin access and diabetes prevention–in the context of rising prevalence. But financial and logistic barriers as well as competing political priorities still leave rural families at the ‘last mile’ of service in a precarious situation. New diagnostics more widely available – but shortages, power cuts, and inflation threaten access Moussa, with his son Adam, shows a continuous glucose monitor in their home in Upper Egypt. To address the growing health and financial burden of the disease, the Egyptian National Health Insurance system recently began to cover the initial cost of a glucometer for newly diagnosed people as well as 25 test strips per month. Yet while over-the-counter glucose monitoring ads flood US airwaves for non-diabetic consumers, many Egyptians, like people in other developing world countries, still struggle to obtain such basic devices for diabetes control. Diabetes care coverage remains below 50 percent for low- and middle-income countries, according to a Lancet estimate. Many or most low-income and informal Egyptian laborers simply don’t have health insurance while their income are not enough to afford their monthly diabetes supplies, notes T1 International, a non-profit diabetes care advocacy group: “It can cost someone more than 50% of their salary to get the basic diabetes supplies,” said Dr Mohamed Shabeen in a T1 article. Moussa’s stash of insulin pens and glucose monitors for the village. Paying for test strips, monitors, and insulin are just one part of the country’s $3 billion diabetes-related annual health expenditure. The International Diabetes Federation estimates this number will rise to $4.5 billion by 2045, a concern given Egypt’s rising national debt and economic woes – with the Egyptian pound devalued by more than 50 percent and food inflation over 60 percent. There are also indirect costs for diabetics. For instance, Adam’s parents enrolled him in a pricier private school, over fears that in the overcrowded public schools, Adam could go into insulin shock unnoticed. “I was worried he would go into a ketone coma (ketoacidosis),” said Moussa, Adam’s father, and English teacher who is one of the few-college educated people in his village of some 2,000 people. “I became diabetic in 2018, Adam in 2019. I noticed a lot of the same symptoms. “When he was diagnosed, I did so much research. I had to learn about the condition because there is so little information for people with diabetes.” Moussa ended up buying a Freestyle Libre glucose monitoring system so Adam could attend school uninterrupted, but it soon became too expensive “and we’re facing a shortage.” Villages, in Minya Governorate, like Moussa’s, struggle with affording insulin – and keeping it refrigerated during power outages. There are several other people living with diabetes in his village, Moussa explained, and they have formed a network, providing each other with valuable social support. “We have a WhatsApp group. If someone has extra medication, they give it to me and then I distribute it to others that need it.” The summer, however, was especially challenging as 40 ℃ temperatures were accompanied by prolonged power cuts, threatening insulin refrigeration. Diabetes ascendant – 11 million and climbing Diabetes treatment coverage remains below 50% across a variety of metrics in low- and middle-income countries. In WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, which includes most of the Middle East and North Africa, one in six adults now live with diabetes, making it the region with the highest prevalence at 16.2% and the second highest expected increase (86%) in the number of people with diabetes.The region also has the highest percentage (24.5%) of diabetes-related deaths in people of working age. In Egypt, the country is now one of many facing a double burden of malnutrition (DBM)–where 21% of children under five are stunted yet over half of children and adolescents are overweight or obese. The country’s rapidly rising rates of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) like diabetes, heart disease, and chronic respiratory diseases means that NCDs account for 82% of all deaths in Egypt and 67% of premature deaths. Public health experts point to the region’s lifestyle changes – a diet heavy in sugar and carbohydrates, lack of exercise, and other risk factors – as fueling the rise in NCDs. New domestic insulin production in limbo A view of the village in Minya Governorate, where the growing prevalence of diabetes threatens the village’s well being. In terms of treatment, there is little local insulin manufacturing in Egypt as well as the rest of Africa, leaving people to depend on expensive, important supplies. Several big initiatives have recently been announced to change that. But their status remains unclear. In May, 2023, Eli Lilly announced a major new partnership with the Egypt-based pharmaceutical company EVA Pharma to provide the company with the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) of insulin at a “significantly reduced price.” Just last month, EVA Pharma’s CEO Dr Riad Armanious declared in a press release that “locally manufactured insulin is currently a top priority, aiming for local supply and exporting it to more than 60 countries.” However, actual rollout of the plan still appears to be in limbo, with neither company responding when asked for comment by Health Policy Watch about the status of the new manufacturing plans. That, despite an August statement by Egypt’s Minister of Health and Population Khaled Abdel Ghaffar told press that the insulin shortage “would be over within three months” and that the country would produce a million more insulin vials a month, in coming months. He blamed a foreign currency shortage for the holdup in importation of critical raw ingredients needed to expand production, but “that the problem had been solved.” Egypt is home to some 170 pharmaceutical factories – and state-owned companies already produce as much as 15 million vials yearly – but much of this also reportedly goes to export. This leaves Egyptians, who need some 27 million vials a year, in an even greater bind. Additionally, observers in the field say privately that the local products are not yet as of good quality as imported ones – something that the partnership between Eli Lilly and Eva should help address. WHO – no further details on the rollout of manufacturing Dr Loyce Pace, with WHO’s Dr Bente Mikkelsen, Africa CDC’s Dr Jean Kaseya and EVA Pharma CEO Riad Armanious at the EVA-Lilly partnership announcement last year. Asked for comment, the World Health Organization also was unable to offer further updates on a timeline for Egypt’s rollout of its much-touted expanded insulin production. WHO is not a direct partner in the Eli Lilly-Eva partnership, but it has been “actively engaging with various stakeholders, including the private sector, to fulfill commitments made in the UN Political Declaration on NCDs,” said Dr Bente Mikkelsen Director, just prior to her retirement on 1 October as head of WHO’s Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, Rehabilitation and Disability (NCD). “Several companies have responded positively to these ‘asks’, including commitments to local manufacturing,” she added, in a comment to Health Policy Watch. Meanwhile, in Minya Governorate, Moussa has been traveling more frequently to Cairo some four hours away by car “to get good healthcare” – after monitoring Adam’s symptoms, as well as his own, and their similarities. But he still hopes that he and others in his community can eventually get quality insulin and glucose monitors at a fairer price locally. “Right now, I’m getting them from Cairo, and we have to pay taxes and customs. It would be great for all these people in our community to be able to afford this as well.” Image Credits: S. Samantaroy/HPW, The Lancet. Another Rwandan Health Worker Gets Marburg, While Cases of Children Co-infected with Mpox and Measles Rise 24/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Dr Ngashi Ngongo (Africa CDC) and Dr Jean-Marie Yameogo (WHO), the continental co-leads on mpox. Rwanda has recorded its 63rd Marburg case, while cases of children coinfected with both mpox and measles are rising in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) weekly media briefing on Thursday. After 10 days of no new cases, a health worker who has been caring for Marburg patients tested positive for the virus on Wednesday night, Rwandan Health Minister Dr Sabin Nsanzimana told the briefing. But the health worker was vaccinated a few days ago and is “doing well” with disease presentation that was “not usual”, Nsanzimana added. “The good thing is that the person has been in a treatment centre and has no contacts outside the centre,” he added. Meanwhile, the source of the Marburg outbreak has been traced to fruit bats in a cave where the index case had been mining, said Nsanzimana. Once this had been confirmed, all human activity at the cave had been stopped and the government is following up on the people working there, to make sure they they don’t develop the disease, he added. Genome sequencing of the virus confirmed that it was both very close to the zoonotic source – the virus in the bats – and to other Marburg cases imported into the country. This underscored the importance of a One Health approach involving experts on human and animal health and the environment, said Nsanzimana. Mpox testing slowly improving Some 2,729 new mpox cases were reported in the past week – over 90% of which in DRC and Burundi, although Liberia, Kenya and Uganda reported new cases, according to Dr Ngashi Ngongo, Africa CDC’s lead on mpox. There has been an increase in mpox patients under the age of 15 being co-infected with measles in the DRC, particularly in Nord Kivu and Sud Kivu – but it is unclear whether one disease made children susceptible to the other. Little more than half the children in these areas have been vaccinated against measles and there is also a high malnutrition rate, which weakens the children’s immune systems, said Ngongo. “We haven’t yet established if the fact that you get measles, then increase your chances of getting mpox and vice versa,” he added. The DRC’s vaccination campaign underway in six provinces, was generally going well with over 39,000 people vaccinated. Nigeria plans to launch its vaccination campaign on 29 October. “We have 5.6 million doses of mpox vaccines that have been confirmed, of which 2.5 million are MVA-BN and three million of the LC16 from Japan,” said Ngongo. Close to 900,000 doses of MVA-BN are available this month October, with another 700,000 potentially available in November, which he described as being “enough, at least, for the moment, to cover the plans that we have received”. However, getting vaccines for children remains a challenge although World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the MVA-BN can be used “off label” for children at risk. After weeks of struggling to increase testing, there had been a 37% increase in tests in the past week – and a big jump in test positivity from 36.5% to 63%. This can be attributed to training on sample management, PCR and Gene Xpert testing, more sequencing equipment, as well as the distribution of more Gene Xperts cartridges (to run the machines), and PCR tests being set to affected countries. No new cases have been recorded in Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, Rwanda and South Africa in the past four weeks. However, surveillance has been a huge challenge, said Ngongo. Only four of the 18 affected countries had reached contact tracing targets of 10 per patient. Meanwhile, the Robert Koch Institute in Germany reported the country’s first case of mpox Clade 1b. The patient recently traveled out of the country, but it not clear where he been. Outside of Africa, Sweden and Thailand have also each reported a case of mpox 1b, the more virulent version of the . World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action 24/10/2024 Stefan Anderson No policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented worldwide in 2023. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain catastrophically off track, with current policies putting the world on course for a 3.1°C temperature rise by century’s end, the UN Environment Programme warned Thursday in its annual “Emissions Gap” report. To keep the 1.5°C target alive, nations must slash emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 – yet emissions continue to climb, hitting record highs last year. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters at the report’s launch. “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly intense climate disasters worldwide,” Guterres said. “People are paying a terrible price.” Despite a year marked by devastating hurricanes, droughts and floods, no country implemented policies “with significant implications for global emissions in 2023,” UNEP found. “Another year has passed without action, and that means we’re worse off,” said Ann Olhoff, the report’s lead scientific editor. “The findings are fairly similar to last year, apart from emissions still going up.” Twenty-nine years after international climate talks began, the sum total of global climate pledges – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would allow temperatures to rise by a “catastrophic” 2.6°C, even if fully implemented, according to the report. Most major economies, including many G20 nations, are failing to meet even these insufficient commitments – let alone achieve the 42% emissions cuts needed. By mid-century, current trajectories point to warming well above 1.5°C, with up to a one-in-three chance of exceeding 2°C. The report warns that warming is expected to intensify beyond 2100, as CO2 emissions are not projected to reach net zero under existing scenarios. Each year of delay makes the task harder: Global emissions must now fall 7.5% every year until 2035 to keep warming to 1.5 C. For a 2 C limit, yearly cuts of 4% are needed. “If we procrastinate, that figure will obviously grow with every year of inaction,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “Nations must show a massive increase in ambition in these new NDCs, accompanied by rapid delivery, or the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C will be dead within a few years.” With nations due to update their climate pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year, UNEP says this represents a make-or-break moment. The new commitments must deliver what the agency calls a “quantum leap” to avoid planetary catastrophe. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era,” Andersen said. “We may not make it. But the only certain path to failure is not trying.” Going backwards The Emissions Gap remains unchanged since UNEP issued the last edition of its annual report last year. In a year that demanded cuts, emissions instead rose 1.3% to record levels in 2023, with coal accounting for 65% of the increase, according to the International Energy Agency. While record deployments of renewable energy, nuclear power and electric vehicles helped curb emissions growth, they couldn’t keep pace with rising energy demand and the impact of severe droughts on hydropower generation. Without this rapid expansion of clean technologies, emissions growth would have been three times higher, according to IEA data. Only one pathway identified in the report halts warming beyond 2100: All 107 countries with net-zero pledges must deliver on their promises and quickly put their plans into action. This could cap warming at 1.9°C, but UNEP has “low” confidence countries will follow through. Countries accounting for 82% of global emissions have made net-zero promises, but progress has stalled. “Current policies, conditional NDCs, unconditional NDCs – in any of these scenarios, whether emissions peak and fall a small amount or plateau, all of them represent a lost decade,” said Neil Grant, a lead author of the report. “Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change.” G20 nations must ‘do the heavy lifting’ Just six countries accounted for 63% of global emissions in 2023, with the least developed nations contributing only 3%, highlighting particular concerns about inaction among major emitters, especially the G20. “We identified very few newly adopted policies [by G20 nations] underpinned by quantitative assessments that deliver considerable emission reduction impact by 2030 or beyond. This is very worrying,” said Takeshi Kuramochi, lead author of the G20 section of the report. “It’s been a calm past 12 months, in a negative way.” Seven G20 members – China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey – have not yet reached peak emissions, a pre-requisite to achieving net zero. For G20 nations that have peaked, including the US, EU, Russia and Canada, “their rate of decarbonization would need to accelerate – in some cases dramatically – after 2030 to achieve their net-zero goals unless they accelerate action now,” UNEP found. “We must remember that 1.5°C is not an on-off switch that will plunge the world into an era of darkness and chaos,” Andersen said. “We are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved.” “The G20, particularly the members that dominate emissions, need to do the heavy lifting,” Andersen added. “Climate crunch time is here.” ‘Wartime’ mobilization is required to keep 1.5C alive While there is “no chance” of limiting global warming to 1.5C under current policies, UNEP insists the target remains “technically possible” – but only through “immediate global mobilization on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” A sweeping transformation of energy, transport, and land use could cut 31 gigatonnes of CO2 annually – equivalent to 52% of global emissions – through existing technologies costing less than $200 per ton of carbon, UNEP estimates. Solar and wind energy alone could deliver 27% of required emissions cuts by 2030, rising to 38% by 2035, while forest protection and restoration could contribute another 20%. Together, these measures would deliver the steep emissions cuts scientists say are needed to keep 1.5C alive. “Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar power and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors,” Andersen said. “This is a gargantuan task that requires global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. But it does, for the moment, remain technically possible.” The price tag for this transformation is steep but achievable, according to UNEP. Annual investment in mitigation measures must increase six-fold to 11.7$ trillion per year by 2035 – approximately 10% of the global economy. “These investments don’t even take all the benefits into account and the avoided damages,” Olhoff said. “It would be very costly not to invest in a green transition.” This is a developing story and will be updated. Image Credits: Joanne Francis. 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As Election Draws Close, Trump Groups Push Hard Against Abortion, LGBTQ Rights in Africa 30/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Institute of Women’s Health’s Anita Mpambara Cox, former Trump officials Alma Golden and Valerie Huber and Burundi’s First Lady, Angeline Ndayishimiye, meet in Washington, DC. Post 2020, ex-Trump officials have worked through NGOs to undermine abortion and LGBTQ rights in Africa, preparing the ground for his re-election Despite Donald Trump’s electoral defeat as US president in 2020, his ex-officials and allies have never stopped campaigning for African countries to prevent abortion and LGBTQ rights – in league with some of the most right-wing countries on the planet, including Russia and Hungary. If Trump is re-elected on 5 November, he is likely to entrench opposition to abortion as a key pillar of US foreign aid. Project 2025, the controversial conservative blueprint for a Trump victory written primarily by his former officials, proposes that all US aid including humanitarian assistance, is conditional on the rejection of abortion. “Proposed measures for USAID [US Agency for International Development] include a significant restructuring, and reduction of budget, the removal of diversity, equity, and inclusion programs, and dismantling of the apparatus that supports gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights,” notes researcher Malayah Harper in an analysis of Project 2025. ‘Sending people to their deaths’ “The return of Trump, at a time when nationalist African presidents are also prosecuting women and queer people, means sending these groups to their death,” observes Saoyo Tabitha Griffith, a Kenyan high court lawyer and women’s rights activist. “This is not alarmist. It is purely informed by the observation of past patterns,” she tells Health Policy Watch. One of Trump’s first presidential actions in 2017 was to prohibit foreign NGOs from receiving US government funding for health if they “provided, promoted, or discussed” abortion – known as the Expanded Global Gag Rule (GGR). Many family planning organisations lost their funding and women lost access to contraception in some of the continent’s poorest countries such as Madagascar and Ethiopia – ironically contributing to more unplanned pregnancies. Banning abortion has never stopped it But abortion bans have never stopped women and girls from trying to end unwanted pregnancies. It has simply driven them to unsafe providers whose methods often maim and even kill them. Approximately 6.2 million women and girls had abortions in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2019, and the region has the highest rate of unplanned pregnancies and abortion-related deaths in the world – 185 maternal deaths per 100,000 abortions, according to Guttmacher. While the percentage of women in Sub-Saharan seeking abortions has remained constant, the number of abortions has surged with population growth. When Trump was elected, Griffith was deputy head of the Kenya Legal and Ethical Issues Network on HIV and AIDS (KELIN) which works on HIV and women’s issues. “After the Expanded Gag Rule, we saw the deaths of sex workers. We saw the deaths of women who needed safe abortions. People died because service delivery programmes shut down,” she said. Trump’s administration also cut funding to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), effectively shrinking the budget of the global sexual and reproductive health agency by around 7%. This affected the provision of maternal and reproductive health services throughout the world – particularly in humanitarian settings. Trump also froze the US contributions to the World Health Organization (WHO) in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, Republican congressional lobbying even put the brakes on the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), claiming – incorrectly – that some grant recipients were promoting abortion. As a result of the right-wing lobby, PEPFAR projects now receive yearly budgets instead of five-year funding. Ex-Trump officials prepare ground for his re-election While legal abortion is out of the reach of most African women and girls, 19 African countries have eased access since 1994 – mostly in an attempt to reduce the maternal deaths caused by unsafe abortions. But US groups have stoked opposition to easing abortion access in Africa, led most recently by Valerie Huber, the Trump-era Special Representative for Global Women’s Health, and Alma Golden, ex-Assistant Administrator for Global Health at USAID. Huber was the architect of an anti-abortion pact, the Geneva Consensus Declaration (GCD), adopted in the dying weeks of Trump’s rule in October 2020 with the support of an array of global human-rights polecats such as Iraq, Uganda, Belarus and Sudan. The GCD also promotes “the natural family” – primarly aimed at removing any recognition of the existence of LGBTQ people. When Biden withdrew the US from the GCD in 2020, Hungary took over the secretariat. However, Trump has confirmed that the US will rejoin the pact if he is elected “to reject the globalist claim of an international right to abortion”. “Under my leadership, the United States will also rejoin the Geneva Consensus Declaration, created by my administration and signed by 36 nations, to reject the globalist claim of an international right to abortion.” pic.twitter.com/1r4R4l23Pg — Team Trump (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@TeamTrump) September 20, 2023 After Trump’s defeat, Huber and Golden launched an NGO called the Institute for Women’s Health (IWH) in 2021, to seek support for the GCD. The IWH is on Project 2025’s advisory board. Its Africa coordinator is Phillip Sayuni, a Ugandan anti-gay pastor, while its international programmes director, Anita Mpambara Cox, is a Ugandan American who sought election as a Republican Senator in 2022. Valerie Huber addressing the fourth anniversary of the anti-abortion pact, the Geneva Consensus Declaration, in Washington DC, in September in front of the flags of signatories, including Iraq, Belarus, Benin and Hungary. In the past year, the IWH has persuaded Burundi and Chad, countries with poor human rights records, to sign the GCD. Burundi only allow abortion to save the life of a pregnant woman, not even allowing it in cases of rape and incest. Women who have abortions face prison sentences. The military dictatorship in Chad allows abortions to save a woman’s life and in cases of rape and incest. Since forming IWH, Huber has courted several right wing African governments, including Sudan, South Sudan, Mali, Burkino Faso and Tanzania, but her closest links are with the Ugandan government. Ms. Valerie Huber, President and C E O of the prestigious Institute for Women’s Health, headquartered in Washington, D.C. is currently visiting Burundi since this sunday May, 5 2024. She traveled with her Executive Operator for Africa Mr Philip. pic.twitter.com/1fmShe0TCP — OPDD-Burundi (@OPDD_Burundi) May 5, 2024 Support from US conservative Christian groups Supporting Huber’s anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ crusade is a phalanx of conservative US NGOs active in Africa, particularly Family Watch International (FWI), headed by conservative Mormon Sharon Slater. FWI has been pushing the same agenda in Africa for over 20 years, and Slater and Huber both work closely with Ugandan First Lady Janet Museveni. Several of these US groups also oppose contraception and sex education for school children known as “comprehensive sexuality education”. The African spending of 17 conservative US Christian organisations known for opposing sexual and reproductive rights, including FWI, almost doubled after Trump’s 2020 defeat. FWI’s spending increased by 495%, albeit off a low base. The 17 groups spent about $16.5 million in Africa between 2019 and 2022, with almost a third ($5.2 million) in 2022, the year after Biden took office, according to the Institute for Journalism and Social Change (IJSC). Institute for Journalism and Social Change (IJSC) Importing US anti-LGBTQ laws A group of US anti-rights groups have worked with conservative African politicians for decades to encourage laws that crack down on the very existence of LGBTQ people across the continent. In the past year, Uganda and Ghana have passed draconian anti-LGBTQ laws with the encouragement of these US groups, particularly FWI. US conservative Christian group Family Watch International leader Sharon Slater (centre, black dress) meets Uganda’s first lady, Janet Museveni (centre, white skirt) in April 2023 to encourage the passage of the country’s Anti-Homosexuality Bill. FWI was one of the driving forces behind the recent Inter-Parliamentary Conference on Family Values and Sovereignty, which also received a $300,000 boost from the Russian government, according to a recent Wall Street Journal exposé. The conference also featured speakers who attacked routine vaccination campaigns and the World Health Organization (WHO), as previously exposed by Health Policy Watch. However, its main agenda was to galvanise support from politicians across Africa for anti-LGBTQ, anti-abortion legislation. The government of Kenyan President William Ruto, the country’s first evangelical leader, is considering “family values” laws to crack down on LGBTQ people and even make divorce more difficult. Copycat laws from US Kenyan LGBTQ activist Āryā Jeipea Karijo says that parts of her country’s anti-LGBTQ Bill are “a direct copy” of US anti-transgender bills. Two concerns in the Bill – transgender people’s access to bathrooms and minors transitioning – “are not contextual to Kenya’s state of access to water as well as to meeting healthcare needs of transgender people”, Karijo says. Kenya is struggling to provide adequate toilets in many schools and there is very little opportunity for adults to transition, let alone minors, she explains to Health Policy Watch. “A side-by-side reading of US anti-transgender legislation and sections of the anti-LGBTQ laws that have been passed in Ghana, Uganda, and are proposed for Kenya, show that the authors are the same, and they are definitely not from the continent,” adds Karijo. Meanwhile, Namibian LGBTQ activist Omar van Reenen notes that “anti-rights groups in the US share resources, strategies and rhetoric internationally”. “The transnational exchange of anti-rights ideologies imported from American evangelical groups and NGOs like Family Watch International are alive and well,” said Van Reenen in a recent interview with the journal, Transcript. Griffith sounds a grim warning if Trump wins the US election: “African women and LGBTQ people must anticipate that Trump’s return will re-ignite an ideological war with real and physical consequences on their bodies. “Issues such as contraceptives, surrogacy, single parenting, safe abortion, HPV vaccines and sexual orientation are all going to be contested, not through science and data but by conspiracies and misinformation.” Image Credits: IJSC. WHO Report Reveals Tuberculosis as 2023’s Deadliest Infectious Disease 29/10/2024 Maayan Hoffman In Pakistan, a healthcare worker listens to a child’s lungs for signs of pulmonary tuberculosis. Shaka Brown was diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) in November 2023. “I was dropped off at the emergency room in Miami, Florida,” he recalled. “In September, I thought I’d caught the flu, but after weeks of night sweats, fainting spells, and losing my hearing in my left ear—and over 50 pounds—I knew something was wrong.” Brown underwent ultrasounds, X-rays, and a battery of tests within hours of arriving. Then, the doctors delivered the news: he had TB. “I told them no one gets TB,” he said. But Brown was quickly moved to a negative-pressure isolation room. “It turned out they were right. I had TB everywhere.” Shaka Brown The bacteria had spread from Brown’s lungs to nearly every organ in his body, including his bladder, brain, and spine. The infection had compromised his lower spine, causing sharp pain down his leg. “The hospital had a molecular diagnostic machine, which helped them quickly figure out that I needed a specialised drug regimen. The standard treatment wouldn’t work for me,” he said. “I started life-saving antibiotics the next day—over 15 pills every day. The TB growth was halted within a week. I remember slowly opening my eyes, surrounded by doctors who told me I was going to make it. It was only then I realised how close I’d come to not making it.” Despite daily pills, four months later, Brown was back in the hospital, this time with seizures and unable to speak. “The TB in my brain wasn’t going away as quickly as they hoped,” Brown said. A week later, he underwent brain surgery to remove the infection. His doctors added anti-seizure medication to his TB regimen. “They told me they’d stick with me every step of the way,” he added. However, as Brown highlighted Tuesday during a presentation of new TB data by the World Health Organization (WHO), not everyone shares his good fortune. “Twenty percent of people who get TB are never diagnosed and, therefore, never treated,” he said. “If we could just identify and treat those individuals, we could save lives. Every person we miss gives the bacteria a chance to evolve, weakening the effectiveness of current treatments. Yet, funding for research to develop effective drugs is decreasing.” TB is top infectious disease killer in 2023 World Health Organization’s 2024 Global Tuberculosis Report. Brown’s message was underscored by the WHO’s release of its 2024 Global Tuberculosis Report. The 68-page report offers comprehensive data on TB trends and the global response, covering 215 countries and regions, including all 193 WHO member states. It provides the latest insights into the TB epidemic, tracking global, regional, and national progress, along with the impact of key factors driving the disease. In 2023, TB reclaimed its position as the world’s leading infectious disease killer, following three years when COVID-19 took the lead. It caused almost twice as many deaths as HIV/AIDS. Specifically, there were an estimated 1.25 million deaths in 2023, including 161,000 amongst people with HIV. “The fact that TB still kills and sickens so many people is an outrage, when we have the tools to prevent it, detect it and treat it,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general. “WHO urges all countries to make good on the concrete commitments they have made to expand the use of those tools, and to end TB.” Globally, the number of deaths caused by TB fell in 2023, reinforcing the decline seen in 2022 after increases during the worst years of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the number of people contracting TB rose slightly to approximately 8.2 million, the highest number recorded since WHO began global TB monitoring in 1995. This represents a notable increase from the 7.5 million reported in 2022. Of those who developed TB, 55% were men, 33% were women, and 12% were children and young adolescents. While TB occurs worldwide, 87% of cases in 2023 came from 30 high-burden countries. The majority of new TB cases were in Southeast Asia (45%) and Africa (24%), with smaller percentages in the Western Pacific (17%), Eastern Mediterranean (8.6%), the Americas (3.2%), and Europe (2.1%). Eight countries accounted for two-thirds of the total: India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Several major risk factors drive a significant portion of TB cases, including undernutrition, HIV infection, alcohol use disorders, smoking (especially amongst men), and diabetes. Since 2000, TB prevention and treatment efforts have saved 79 million lives. The global gap between estimated TB cases (incidents) and reported new diagnoses (notifications) narrowed to about 2.7 million in 2023, down from around 4 million in 2020 and 2021 and below the pre-pandemic level of 3.2 million in 2019. Drug-resistant TB remains a serious public health threat, said Dr. Tereza Kasaeva, WHO’s Global TB Program director. Presenting the data to health officials and the press on Tuesday alongside Brown, she noted that in 2023, 175,923 people were diagnosed and treated for multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB)—just 44% of the estimated 400,000 cases worldwide. Trial Finds Four New Treatment Options for Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Kasaeva said progress toward global TB milestones and targets is lagging, including those set for 2027. Global funding for TB prevention and care dropped in 2023. Of the $22 billion target, only $5.7 billion was received—just 26% of the goal, with low- and middle-income countries bearing 98% of the TB burden. “With only 26% funding, it’s impossible to provide 100% access for everyone in need,” Kasaeva said. Domestic sources provided 80% of TB funding, while international funding for low- and middle-income countries has held steady at around $1.2 billion per year. Funding for TB research also remains critically low at around $1 billion per year—just a fifth of what’s needed. “This is absolutely insufficient,” Kasaeva said. “We are confronted with a multitude of formidable challenges: funding shortfalls and catastrophic financial burden on those affected, climate change, conflict, migration and displacement, pandemics, and drug-resistant tuberculosis, a significant driver of antimicrobial resistance,” Kasaeva added. “It is imperative that we unite across all sectors and stakeholders, to confront these pressing issues and ramp up our efforts.” ‘We can end TB’ Cheri Vincent, TB Division Chief at the US Agency for International Development (USAID) The United States is the largest bilateral donor to global TB efforts, thanks to bipartisan support from Congress, explained Cheri Vincent, TB Division Chief at the US Agency for International Development (USAID), who also spoke on Monday. Since 2000, USAID has invested $4.7 billion in the fight against TB. “We have a global TB strategy for 2023 to 2030 that focusses on our 24 priority countries,” Vincent said. The strategy aims to ensure that 90% of people with TB, including drug-resistant TB, are diagnosed and treated. It also seeks to provide preventive treatment for 30 million people eligible for it. “While it’s heartening to see some positive trends in our battle against TB, we must confront a harsh reality: despite our efforts, we are merely treading water, failing to make significant strides toward our goal of ending TB,” said Dr Cassandra Kelly-Cirino, executive director of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, in response to the report. “To create a world free from TB, we must urgently address the areas where we continue to fall short.” She added, “We’re diagnosing only 48% of the individuals needed to meet the 90% target. This is unacceptable. We must ramp up testing, ensure timely diagnosis, and support effective treatment to turn these numbers around and accelerate the reduction in the global TB incidence rate.” Similarly, Peter Sands, executive director of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, stated, “The big message from this year’s World TB Report is that if we act decisively, we can end TB.” “We have momentum, tools, and leadership, but we need more funding—and we also need to dismantle human rights and gender-related barriers that prevent people from accessing the services they need,” he continued. “Winning will take political will and sustained commitment. In a world facing increasing challenges from conflict and climate change, we cannot hesitate.” Image Credits: Stop TB Partnership, Shaka Brown's official website, World Health Organization. New Food Guidelines Aim to Clarify What Constitutes a ‘Healthy’ Diet 29/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy The joint statement comes as the science on the effects of ultra processed foods continues to evolve. Diets should be guided by four key principles, say the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) in a joint statement released this week. Their statement highlights the importance of adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse food intake, and aims to clarify what exactly a healthy diet means. “With such prominence in the scientific literature and public media has come a range of definitions and perspectives about what constitute healthy diets, and how these can be achieved, while protecting the environment,” the FAO said in an introduction to the statement. Unhealthy diets are a lead driver of non-communicable diseases like heart disease, obesity, and diabetes. FAO and WHO released the statement alongside this year’s annual meeting of the Committee on World Food Security, where stakeholders gathered to strengthen policy responses to food crises, and the Convention on Biodiversity in Cali, Colombia. Both events prompted the FAO and WHO to clarify the idea of a “healthy diet” while celebrating the “diversity of healthy dietary patterns.” Skirting questions about ultra-processed foods Ultra processed foods are linked to adverse health outcomes, yet it may take several more years for regulatory bodies to issue guidelines on UFP consumption. Food intake should be adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse, according to the statement. Diets should provide enough nutrients in a moderate and balanced way, with a wide-variety of nutrients across food groups. With daily media coverage of dietary advice, scientific studies on the ‘best’ diets, and the growing threat of climate change on food systems, the statement’s simple message consolidates several decades of scientific research Yet the statement acknowledges that further research is needed before issuing recommendations, especially on ultra-processed foods (UFP), including sugar-sweetened beverages and desserts, dyed snacks, and processed meats. More than 50% of energy intake comes from UFP in high-income countries, and this trend increasingly mirrored in lower- and middle- income countries. “It’s probably going to take another several years to have a sufficient evidence base,” noted Dr JoAnn Manson, a physician and researcher at Harvard, in a recent STAT news article. In the meantime, the WHO and FAO recommended “considering moderation” of UFP. Other regulatory bodies, including the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Health and Human Services (HHS), are set to issue their own dietary guidelines by the end of the year. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025-2030, edition, will also likely not include definitive advice about UFP. Image Credits: Scott Warman/ Unsplash, Leon Ephraim/ Unsplash. Global Emissions Set to Fall 2.6% by 2030 – 40% Short of Paris Agreement Target 28/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Climate plans ‘miles short’ of averting catastrophe, UN climate chief warns ahead of COP29. Global climate plans will cut emissions by just 2.6% by 2030, falling 40% short of what’s needed to keep a future within the Paris agreement’s 1.5C goal alive, according to a report released Monday by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The combined emissions cut by the national climate plans, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), have increased by a mere 0.6% since last year, an insignificant change that will not affect global warming trajectories, the UN climate body said in its annual assessment ahead of next month’s COP29 summit in Baku. “Current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country, said Simon Stiell, UNFCCC’s executive secretary. “Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.” As countries prepare to update their climate pledges ahead of next year’s COP30 in Brazil, time is running out to take the existential scale of the threat seriously. Since COP28, where countries adopted the UAE consensus reaffirming the 1.5ºC target established in 2015, only one nation has submitted updated climate plans under the treaty framework. World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action The UNFCCC’s dire assessment mirrors findings released last week by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), which reported that no policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented globally in 2023, putting the world on course for “catastrophic” warming of 3.1ºC by the end of the century. UNEP maintains that the 1.5ºC target – which its director called “one of the greatest asks of the modern era” – remains “technically possible” if there is “immediate global mobilisation on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” With global emissions set to exceed 1.5ºC of warming by 2050 – and a one-in-three chance of breaking 2ºC – UNEP’s chief called for a “quantum leap” in climate policy. Stiell echoed this urgency, demanding an immediate end to the “era of inadequacy” — and for “a new age of acceleration” to begin at next month’s COP29. “The last generation of NDCs set the signal for unstoppable change,” Stiell said. “New NDCs next year must outline a clear path to make it happen – by scaling up renewable energy, strengthening adaptation and accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies everywhere.” The latest warning shot Carbon dioxide is building up in Earth’s atmosphere at rates never before seen in human history, WMO reported Monday. With COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, just weeks away, a raft of new climate research has reinforced the alarm bells set off by the UNFCCC’s findings. Planet-warming greenhouse gases surged to record highs in 2023, reaching levels unprecedented in human history, new data released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) revealed on Monday. The UN weather agency found carbon dioxide concentrations rose more than 10% in the past decade, while methane and nitrous oxide, short-lived but powerful greenhouse gases, also saw significant increases. Carbon dioxide levels are now 51% higher than in pre-industrial times, when humans began burning fossil fuels at scale, while methane levels have risen 161% and nitrous oxide 25% over the same period, locking Earth’s atmosphere into a warming trajectory for at least the lifecycle of these gases. “Another year. Another record,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo. “These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.” “This should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers,” Saulo said. Carbon dioxide is accumulating “faster than any time experienced during human existence” due to “stubbornly high fossil fuel” emissions, widespread forest fires, and a likely reduction in the ability of natural carbon sinks — such as oceans and forests — to absorb CO2, WMO said. The 2023 increase of 2.3 parts per million marked the 12th straight year of rises above 2ppm – a rate of increase that would have taken centuries to occur naturally before industrialization. “The record levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere are the logical outcome of the record amounts of greenhouse gases that our economies continue to dump into our ambient air,” Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and lead author of the report, told the Guardian. “This doesn’t need to be the end of the story.” Earth’s systems near breaking point The WMO report raises fresh alarms about nature’s carbon sinks — oceans, forests, plants and soil that absorb carbon dioxide — and it isn’t alone. Earlier this month, international researchers released preliminary findings indicating forests, plants and soil absorbed almost no net carbon in 2023, suggesting they could be nearing a tipping point. These natural buffers, long taken for granted in climate models, may be failing. Earth’s natural carbon sinks absorb nearly 50% of our carbon emissions, and their collapse could be catastrophic and rapidly accelerate global warming beyond current worst-case scenario projections. “We see a sudden drop of the land carbon sinks from extreme warming and Amazon mega-drought,” said Philippe Ciais, one of the report’s lead authors. “If this decline continues, we may see a rapid acceleration of CO2 and global warming which was unforeseen in future climate models’ projections.” Collapse of Atlantic current Meanwhile, 40 of the world’s leading experts on ocean and climate science penned an urgent open letter presented at the Arctic Circle conference in Iceland last week warning that the risk of collapse of a vital Atlantic current system, known as the AMOC, has been “greatly underestimated.” The collapse of this system, one of the planet’s largest arteries transporting heat around the world’s oceans, would have “potentially catastrophic consequences” and trigger “devastating and irreversible climate impacts,” the letter warned. The worst impacts would be felt in Nordic countries and “potentially threaten the viability of agriculture in northwestern Europe,” while global impacts would include reduced CO2 absorption by oceans, major sea-level rise, and a shift in tropical rainforest belts, meaning rains would no longer fall on the forests they keep alive – triggering droughts above rainforests vital to absorbing CO2 – and flood the new regions they settle over. “This has happened repeatedly in Earth’s history, most recently during the last ice age,” Stefan Rahmstorf, a signatory of the open letter and head of the Earth system analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in an interview with the Guardian. “These are among the most massive upheavals of climate conditions in Earth’s history,” Rahmstorf said. “I am now very concerned that we may push Amoc over this tipping point in the next decades. If you ask me my gut feeling, I would say the risk that we cross the tipping point this century is about 50/50.” “We don’t know where the tipping point is.” Image Credits: RecondOil. Nations Deadlocked Over Health-Biodiversity Framework at COP16 26/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Negotiations continue on health provisions in biodiversity plans as the UN summit in Cali reaches its midpoint. Only 35 countries have submitted the national strategies required by the UN biodiversity treaty showing how they’ll meet its binding nature protection targets. While 33 of these plans recognise links between human health and biodiversity, they offer few specifics on implementation and policy, a Health Policy Watch analysis found. Negotiators in Cali aim to bridge the gap this week by adopting a global health action plan under the treaty that provides a roadmap for meeting its health protection requirements. Midway through the UN biodiversity summit COP16 in Cali, Colombia, delegates from nearly 200 countries remain deadlocked over rules to protect human health from Earth’s mounting ecological crisis. UN Environment chief Inger Andersen urged delegates Thursday to break the impasse over the Global Action Plan on Biodiversity and Health, which would align conservation efforts with human health priorities as nations wrestle with implementing the landmark 2022 Montreal biodiversity treaty. “Our health cannot be separated from the health of the planet and its many species,” she told delegates in Cali. “We must adopt this action plan and implement it with a holistic, systemic approach that unifies action across health, environment, finance, industry and agriculture.” Over the weekend Biodiversity deal seeks health rules – but keeps them voluntary The world agreed to protect nature in Montreal two years ago. Now in Cali, countries must figure out how. The proposed framework would strengthen the 2022 Kunming-Montreal biodiversity agreement – nature’s equivalent to the Paris Climate Accord – which committed 197 nations to protect 30% of Earth’s land and seas by 2030, but left crucial health provisions largely undefined. While the Convention on Biodiversity itself is legally binding, the proposed health framework would serve as a voluntary roadmap for nations. It calls for health impact assessments in land-use planning, disease surveillance where habitat loss is rapid, and stricter wildlife trade rules — measures experts say are vital to prevent pathogens spreading from wild animals to human communities and food markets. The framework also emphasises protecting genetic resources crucial for new medicine development and ensuring vulnerable populations have access to nature’s health benefits. The push comes amid controversy at the UN biodiversity summit over countries’ rights to demand “benefit sharing” when genetic resources, including digital sequences, are used in drug development — a fight at the frontiers of biodiversity science that nearly derailed the landmark 2022 Montreal agreement. Beyond the fight over genetic resources, nations broadly agree on the framework’s other targets: combating vector-borne diseases emerging from shrinking habitats, reducing chemical exposure from industry, and protecting communities from the toxic toll of mass pesticide use. If approved, the plan’s voluntary nature, combined with history, suggests an uphill battle: the world has not met a single UN biodiversity goal since talks began in Nairobi over 30 years ago. Sweeping New Global Biodiversity Deal Sets Out Plan for Sharing Gene Sequences The health focus at the UN biodiversity summit reflects a broader shift in environmental diplomacy, marked by the first-ever Health Day at UN climate talks (COP28) in Dubai last year. While biodiversity has long been valued for medical discoveries — nearly half of all pharmaceuticals in use today are originally derived from nature — scientists increasingly see ecosystem protection as vital for preventing disease outbreaks, controlling disease vectors, and limiting chemical exposure. Biodiversity loss and climate change have emerged as the leading drivers of infectious diseases worldwide, amplifying 58% of outbreaks. The mounting threat is forcing policymakers to reckon with an increasingly inescapable truth: human survival depends entirely on Earth’s life-sustaining systems — clean water, air, and food. “Framing biodiversity as a resource – something separate, something that gives – has led to humanity converting nature, driving species to extinction, polluting ecosystems and pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” Andersen said. “But humanity is not separate from or above biodiversity. And in a closed system such as Earth, what goes around comes around.” Deep divisions over superbug prevention and drug development mirror COP16 tensions The Biodiversity-Health framework is one of the most contested documents being negotiated at COP16 in Cali, Colombia this week, according to Carbon Brief. The 24-page Biodiversity-Health framework is as one of the summit’s most contested documents, with 54 bracketed sections exposing fundamental disagreements between nations. The disputed clauses reflect wider fault lines in Cali. Nations remain divided over whether to classify improperly disposed antibiotic waste – a key driver of antimicrobial resistance – as “pollution” alongside microplastics and heavy metals. Proposals to “avoid the inappropriate use and disposal” of antibiotics are also unsettled, despite safe disposal practices being critical to preserving the efficacy drugs that save hundreds of millions of lives annually. The sharing of benefits from genetic resources is another flashpoint. Developing nations demand strong commitments on technology transfer, while wealthy countries insist such transfers must remain “voluntary.” Nations with major pharmaceutical industries have pushed also back against draft language that would hold companies accountable for “the misappropriation of genetic resources and digital sequence information and associated traditional knowledge. A crucial sticking point centres on whether to include “derivatives” and “subsequent applications and commercialisation” – essentially determining if companies must share benefits when they develop new products based on initial discoveries. Without such provisions, firms could potentially avoid sharing profits from derivative drugs or applications. Finance – the dominant issue of COP16’s opening week – is another key battleground in the health framework. Nations have yet to approve clauses that would provide financial support to developing countries, which host most of the world’s biodiversity, for implementing plans to protect it. Of the few plans submitted, most consider health Of 35 submitted biodiversity plans, Western Europe leads with 13, followed by Asia-Pacific with 10, while Africa filed 5, Latin America 4, and Eastern Europe 3, according to the COP16 database. National biodiversity plans submitted before this week’s summit in Colombia summit reveal wide variations in scope and specificity for how countries intend to tackle environmental protection and human health concerns, a Health Policy Watch analysis of the COP16 database found. Only 35 nations – just 18% – submitted biodiversity strategies, known as NBSAPs in UN jargon, by Monday’s UN summit deadline. All but Mexico and Jordan included human health concerns in their plans. The submitted plans reflect clear regional priorities. European Union members emphasize a comprehensive “one health” approach that links human, animal and environmental welfare, focusing heavily on pesticide and chemical pollution regulation – areas where the EU leads global policy. Colombia’s strategy takes a different focus, centering on health impacts from extractive industries, particularly mercury contamination from mining. In contrast, China and South Korea’s plans barely mention health, making single references to urban green spaces’ benefits for respiratory and mental health. These varied approaches come as research increasingly links ecosystem destruction to public health crises, from floods to disease outbreaks. Scientists have documented two virus spillovers to humans annually over the past century, culminating in the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Health Organization projects climate change could cause 250,000 additional deaths yearly between 2030-2050. Antimicrobial resistance already claims 1.4 million lives annually, while environmental degradation could cause 39 million deaths from 2025-2050. The proposed health framework, though voluntary, would set higher standards than current national plans. “From the air we breathe to the water we drink, our health is tied to the health of the planet,” said UN Environment chief Andersen. “We need a plan to protect biodiversity for the health of all species on earth.” Critical regions and powers missing from submissions While most nations haven’t submitted biodiversity plans required by the Montreal deal, officials say the two-year timeline was ambitious given ecosystem complexity, especially in regions like the Amazon. Of the 17 nations hosting 70% of Earth’s biodiversity, only five have filed plans: Australia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Mexico. The crucial Amazon region is represented solely by Suriname, with no submissions from Congo Basin nations. The G7 economic powers showed limited participation, with only Canada, Italy, France and Japan meeting the deadline. Among G20 members, Brazil indicated it needs more time to develop its long-term conservation strategy, while India plans to announce its commitments during the summit. “The start was never going to be fast. I think the important thing we’re looking at is the work is underway,” UN biodiversity chief Astrid Schomaker told Carbon Brief about the limited submissions. “Whether the deadline itself is met on the dot is not what I think we’re really looking at,” Schomaker said, adding she is “confident” this work is taking place globally. “I think our assessment is globally positive.” Biodiversity and health deal advances, but key framework still faces hurdles Negotiations on biodiversity and health took a step forward on Sunday as the second working group’s chair presented a draft decision – a document separate from but related to the broader biodiversity and health action plan. While the draft includes a provision to adopt the action plan, this remains in brackets, indicating no consensus has yet been reached among member states. The draft makes several key advances, eliminating previous disputes over antimicrobial disposal protocols and removing qualifiers that made technology sharing optional. It also strengthens provisions for Indigenous peoples’ participation in global biodiversity initiatives and decision-making forums. However, several contentious issues from the main biodiversity framework remain unresolved. These include questions of pharmaceutical companies’ liability regarding genetic resource usage and digital sequence information, whether derivatives and commercial applications should be included in fair and equitable benefit-sharing arrangements, and the creation of international oversight mechanisms to ensure countries meet their biodiversity and health commitments. Finance remains a critical hurdle in the health and broader COP16 negotiations. While eight nations boosted the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund this week with pledges totaling $163m, bringing available funding to $400m, this falls dramatically short of global needs. The Kunming-Montreal agreement calls for $200bn annually for nature protection – 500 times the current fund’s total, which isn’t even structured as yearly financing. Though there is broad agreement on the principle of financial support from development banks and environmental funds, the mechanisms for distribution remain hotly contested. As with previous UN environmental negotiations, talks may extend beyond the official Friday deadline as delegates work to bridge these remaining gaps. This article was updated to reflect progress in the negotiations Image Credits: CIFOR-ICRAF. Egyptians Still Face Barriers to Insulin Access, Despite Promises of Expanded Domestic Production 25/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy A view point in Minya Governorate. Nearly 11 million Egyptians live with diabetes, where insulin access is increasingly out of reach for those in rural areas. MINYA GOVERNORATE, EGYPT – Nine-year-old Adam needs an insulin shot before meals, and seems unphased when his father checks his sugar levels with a finger pricking. He looks away when a small blood drop wells on the tip of his finger. Adam turns back to his plate of rice and stewed vegetables, continuing to ramble about the kids in his summer camp. Both Adam and his father are diabetic in a rural village in Upper Egypt, where their struggle to access insulin mirrors a broader struggle across the country, and the continent. In a country where over 18% of adults live with diabetes, and with the number of adults living with diabetes expected to hit 20 million by 2045, diagnosis, monitoring, and medication are all difficult to come by. In response, Egypt is now taking significant steps to expand insulin access and diabetes prevention–in the context of rising prevalence. But financial and logistic barriers as well as competing political priorities still leave rural families at the ‘last mile’ of service in a precarious situation. New diagnostics more widely available – but shortages, power cuts, and inflation threaten access Moussa, with his son Adam, shows a continuous glucose monitor in their home in Upper Egypt. To address the growing health and financial burden of the disease, the Egyptian National Health Insurance system recently began to cover the initial cost of a glucometer for newly diagnosed people as well as 25 test strips per month. Yet while over-the-counter glucose monitoring ads flood US airwaves for non-diabetic consumers, many Egyptians, like people in other developing world countries, still struggle to obtain such basic devices for diabetes control. Diabetes care coverage remains below 50 percent for low- and middle-income countries, according to a Lancet estimate. Many or most low-income and informal Egyptian laborers simply don’t have health insurance while their income are not enough to afford their monthly diabetes supplies, notes T1 International, a non-profit diabetes care advocacy group: “It can cost someone more than 50% of their salary to get the basic diabetes supplies,” said Dr Mohamed Shabeen in a T1 article. Moussa’s stash of insulin pens and glucose monitors for the village. Paying for test strips, monitors, and insulin are just one part of the country’s $3 billion diabetes-related annual health expenditure. The International Diabetes Federation estimates this number will rise to $4.5 billion by 2045, a concern given Egypt’s rising national debt and economic woes – with the Egyptian pound devalued by more than 50 percent and food inflation over 60 percent. There are also indirect costs for diabetics. For instance, Adam’s parents enrolled him in a pricier private school, over fears that in the overcrowded public schools, Adam could go into insulin shock unnoticed. “I was worried he would go into a ketone coma (ketoacidosis),” said Moussa, Adam’s father, and English teacher who is one of the few-college educated people in his village of some 2,000 people. “I became diabetic in 2018, Adam in 2019. I noticed a lot of the same symptoms. “When he was diagnosed, I did so much research. I had to learn about the condition because there is so little information for people with diabetes.” Moussa ended up buying a Freestyle Libre glucose monitoring system so Adam could attend school uninterrupted, but it soon became too expensive “and we’re facing a shortage.” Villages, in Minya Governorate, like Moussa’s, struggle with affording insulin – and keeping it refrigerated during power outages. There are several other people living with diabetes in his village, Moussa explained, and they have formed a network, providing each other with valuable social support. “We have a WhatsApp group. If someone has extra medication, they give it to me and then I distribute it to others that need it.” The summer, however, was especially challenging as 40 ℃ temperatures were accompanied by prolonged power cuts, threatening insulin refrigeration. Diabetes ascendant – 11 million and climbing Diabetes treatment coverage remains below 50% across a variety of metrics in low- and middle-income countries. In WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, which includes most of the Middle East and North Africa, one in six adults now live with diabetes, making it the region with the highest prevalence at 16.2% and the second highest expected increase (86%) in the number of people with diabetes.The region also has the highest percentage (24.5%) of diabetes-related deaths in people of working age. In Egypt, the country is now one of many facing a double burden of malnutrition (DBM)–where 21% of children under five are stunted yet over half of children and adolescents are overweight or obese. The country’s rapidly rising rates of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) like diabetes, heart disease, and chronic respiratory diseases means that NCDs account for 82% of all deaths in Egypt and 67% of premature deaths. Public health experts point to the region’s lifestyle changes – a diet heavy in sugar and carbohydrates, lack of exercise, and other risk factors – as fueling the rise in NCDs. New domestic insulin production in limbo A view of the village in Minya Governorate, where the growing prevalence of diabetes threatens the village’s well being. In terms of treatment, there is little local insulin manufacturing in Egypt as well as the rest of Africa, leaving people to depend on expensive, important supplies. Several big initiatives have recently been announced to change that. But their status remains unclear. In May, 2023, Eli Lilly announced a major new partnership with the Egypt-based pharmaceutical company EVA Pharma to provide the company with the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) of insulin at a “significantly reduced price.” Just last month, EVA Pharma’s CEO Dr Riad Armanious declared in a press release that “locally manufactured insulin is currently a top priority, aiming for local supply and exporting it to more than 60 countries.” However, actual rollout of the plan still appears to be in limbo, with neither company responding when asked for comment by Health Policy Watch about the status of the new manufacturing plans. That, despite an August statement by Egypt’s Minister of Health and Population Khaled Abdel Ghaffar told press that the insulin shortage “would be over within three months” and that the country would produce a million more insulin vials a month, in coming months. He blamed a foreign currency shortage for the holdup in importation of critical raw ingredients needed to expand production, but “that the problem had been solved.” Egypt is home to some 170 pharmaceutical factories – and state-owned companies already produce as much as 15 million vials yearly – but much of this also reportedly goes to export. This leaves Egyptians, who need some 27 million vials a year, in an even greater bind. Additionally, observers in the field say privately that the local products are not yet as of good quality as imported ones – something that the partnership between Eli Lilly and Eva should help address. WHO – no further details on the rollout of manufacturing Dr Loyce Pace, with WHO’s Dr Bente Mikkelsen, Africa CDC’s Dr Jean Kaseya and EVA Pharma CEO Riad Armanious at the EVA-Lilly partnership announcement last year. Asked for comment, the World Health Organization also was unable to offer further updates on a timeline for Egypt’s rollout of its much-touted expanded insulin production. WHO is not a direct partner in the Eli Lilly-Eva partnership, but it has been “actively engaging with various stakeholders, including the private sector, to fulfill commitments made in the UN Political Declaration on NCDs,” said Dr Bente Mikkelsen Director, just prior to her retirement on 1 October as head of WHO’s Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, Rehabilitation and Disability (NCD). “Several companies have responded positively to these ‘asks’, including commitments to local manufacturing,” she added, in a comment to Health Policy Watch. Meanwhile, in Minya Governorate, Moussa has been traveling more frequently to Cairo some four hours away by car “to get good healthcare” – after monitoring Adam’s symptoms, as well as his own, and their similarities. But he still hopes that he and others in his community can eventually get quality insulin and glucose monitors at a fairer price locally. “Right now, I’m getting them from Cairo, and we have to pay taxes and customs. It would be great for all these people in our community to be able to afford this as well.” Image Credits: S. Samantaroy/HPW, The Lancet. Another Rwandan Health Worker Gets Marburg, While Cases of Children Co-infected with Mpox and Measles Rise 24/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Dr Ngashi Ngongo (Africa CDC) and Dr Jean-Marie Yameogo (WHO), the continental co-leads on mpox. Rwanda has recorded its 63rd Marburg case, while cases of children coinfected with both mpox and measles are rising in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) weekly media briefing on Thursday. After 10 days of no new cases, a health worker who has been caring for Marburg patients tested positive for the virus on Wednesday night, Rwandan Health Minister Dr Sabin Nsanzimana told the briefing. But the health worker was vaccinated a few days ago and is “doing well” with disease presentation that was “not usual”, Nsanzimana added. “The good thing is that the person has been in a treatment centre and has no contacts outside the centre,” he added. Meanwhile, the source of the Marburg outbreak has been traced to fruit bats in a cave where the index case had been mining, said Nsanzimana. Once this had been confirmed, all human activity at the cave had been stopped and the government is following up on the people working there, to make sure they they don’t develop the disease, he added. Genome sequencing of the virus confirmed that it was both very close to the zoonotic source – the virus in the bats – and to other Marburg cases imported into the country. This underscored the importance of a One Health approach involving experts on human and animal health and the environment, said Nsanzimana. Mpox testing slowly improving Some 2,729 new mpox cases were reported in the past week – over 90% of which in DRC and Burundi, although Liberia, Kenya and Uganda reported new cases, according to Dr Ngashi Ngongo, Africa CDC’s lead on mpox. There has been an increase in mpox patients under the age of 15 being co-infected with measles in the DRC, particularly in Nord Kivu and Sud Kivu – but it is unclear whether one disease made children susceptible to the other. Little more than half the children in these areas have been vaccinated against measles and there is also a high malnutrition rate, which weakens the children’s immune systems, said Ngongo. “We haven’t yet established if the fact that you get measles, then increase your chances of getting mpox and vice versa,” he added. The DRC’s vaccination campaign underway in six provinces, was generally going well with over 39,000 people vaccinated. Nigeria plans to launch its vaccination campaign on 29 October. “We have 5.6 million doses of mpox vaccines that have been confirmed, of which 2.5 million are MVA-BN and three million of the LC16 from Japan,” said Ngongo. Close to 900,000 doses of MVA-BN are available this month October, with another 700,000 potentially available in November, which he described as being “enough, at least, for the moment, to cover the plans that we have received”. However, getting vaccines for children remains a challenge although World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the MVA-BN can be used “off label” for children at risk. After weeks of struggling to increase testing, there had been a 37% increase in tests in the past week – and a big jump in test positivity from 36.5% to 63%. This can be attributed to training on sample management, PCR and Gene Xpert testing, more sequencing equipment, as well as the distribution of more Gene Xperts cartridges (to run the machines), and PCR tests being set to affected countries. No new cases have been recorded in Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, Rwanda and South Africa in the past four weeks. However, surveillance has been a huge challenge, said Ngongo. Only four of the 18 affected countries had reached contact tracing targets of 10 per patient. Meanwhile, the Robert Koch Institute in Germany reported the country’s first case of mpox Clade 1b. The patient recently traveled out of the country, but it not clear where he been. Outside of Africa, Sweden and Thailand have also each reported a case of mpox 1b, the more virulent version of the . World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action 24/10/2024 Stefan Anderson No policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented worldwide in 2023. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain catastrophically off track, with current policies putting the world on course for a 3.1°C temperature rise by century’s end, the UN Environment Programme warned Thursday in its annual “Emissions Gap” report. To keep the 1.5°C target alive, nations must slash emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 – yet emissions continue to climb, hitting record highs last year. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters at the report’s launch. “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly intense climate disasters worldwide,” Guterres said. “People are paying a terrible price.” Despite a year marked by devastating hurricanes, droughts and floods, no country implemented policies “with significant implications for global emissions in 2023,” UNEP found. “Another year has passed without action, and that means we’re worse off,” said Ann Olhoff, the report’s lead scientific editor. “The findings are fairly similar to last year, apart from emissions still going up.” Twenty-nine years after international climate talks began, the sum total of global climate pledges – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would allow temperatures to rise by a “catastrophic” 2.6°C, even if fully implemented, according to the report. Most major economies, including many G20 nations, are failing to meet even these insufficient commitments – let alone achieve the 42% emissions cuts needed. By mid-century, current trajectories point to warming well above 1.5°C, with up to a one-in-three chance of exceeding 2°C. The report warns that warming is expected to intensify beyond 2100, as CO2 emissions are not projected to reach net zero under existing scenarios. Each year of delay makes the task harder: Global emissions must now fall 7.5% every year until 2035 to keep warming to 1.5 C. For a 2 C limit, yearly cuts of 4% are needed. “If we procrastinate, that figure will obviously grow with every year of inaction,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “Nations must show a massive increase in ambition in these new NDCs, accompanied by rapid delivery, or the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C will be dead within a few years.” With nations due to update their climate pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year, UNEP says this represents a make-or-break moment. The new commitments must deliver what the agency calls a “quantum leap” to avoid planetary catastrophe. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era,” Andersen said. “We may not make it. But the only certain path to failure is not trying.” Going backwards The Emissions Gap remains unchanged since UNEP issued the last edition of its annual report last year. In a year that demanded cuts, emissions instead rose 1.3% to record levels in 2023, with coal accounting for 65% of the increase, according to the International Energy Agency. While record deployments of renewable energy, nuclear power and electric vehicles helped curb emissions growth, they couldn’t keep pace with rising energy demand and the impact of severe droughts on hydropower generation. Without this rapid expansion of clean technologies, emissions growth would have been three times higher, according to IEA data. Only one pathway identified in the report halts warming beyond 2100: All 107 countries with net-zero pledges must deliver on their promises and quickly put their plans into action. This could cap warming at 1.9°C, but UNEP has “low” confidence countries will follow through. Countries accounting for 82% of global emissions have made net-zero promises, but progress has stalled. “Current policies, conditional NDCs, unconditional NDCs – in any of these scenarios, whether emissions peak and fall a small amount or plateau, all of them represent a lost decade,” said Neil Grant, a lead author of the report. “Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change.” G20 nations must ‘do the heavy lifting’ Just six countries accounted for 63% of global emissions in 2023, with the least developed nations contributing only 3%, highlighting particular concerns about inaction among major emitters, especially the G20. “We identified very few newly adopted policies [by G20 nations] underpinned by quantitative assessments that deliver considerable emission reduction impact by 2030 or beyond. This is very worrying,” said Takeshi Kuramochi, lead author of the G20 section of the report. “It’s been a calm past 12 months, in a negative way.” Seven G20 members – China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey – have not yet reached peak emissions, a pre-requisite to achieving net zero. For G20 nations that have peaked, including the US, EU, Russia and Canada, “their rate of decarbonization would need to accelerate – in some cases dramatically – after 2030 to achieve their net-zero goals unless they accelerate action now,” UNEP found. “We must remember that 1.5°C is not an on-off switch that will plunge the world into an era of darkness and chaos,” Andersen said. “We are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved.” “The G20, particularly the members that dominate emissions, need to do the heavy lifting,” Andersen added. “Climate crunch time is here.” ‘Wartime’ mobilization is required to keep 1.5C alive While there is “no chance” of limiting global warming to 1.5C under current policies, UNEP insists the target remains “technically possible” – but only through “immediate global mobilization on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” A sweeping transformation of energy, transport, and land use could cut 31 gigatonnes of CO2 annually – equivalent to 52% of global emissions – through existing technologies costing less than $200 per ton of carbon, UNEP estimates. Solar and wind energy alone could deliver 27% of required emissions cuts by 2030, rising to 38% by 2035, while forest protection and restoration could contribute another 20%. Together, these measures would deliver the steep emissions cuts scientists say are needed to keep 1.5C alive. “Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar power and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors,” Andersen said. “This is a gargantuan task that requires global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. But it does, for the moment, remain technically possible.” The price tag for this transformation is steep but achievable, according to UNEP. Annual investment in mitigation measures must increase six-fold to 11.7$ trillion per year by 2035 – approximately 10% of the global economy. “These investments don’t even take all the benefits into account and the avoided damages,” Olhoff said. “It would be very costly not to invest in a green transition.” This is a developing story and will be updated. Image Credits: Joanne Francis. 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WHO Report Reveals Tuberculosis as 2023’s Deadliest Infectious Disease 29/10/2024 Maayan Hoffman In Pakistan, a healthcare worker listens to a child’s lungs for signs of pulmonary tuberculosis. Shaka Brown was diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) in November 2023. “I was dropped off at the emergency room in Miami, Florida,” he recalled. “In September, I thought I’d caught the flu, but after weeks of night sweats, fainting spells, and losing my hearing in my left ear—and over 50 pounds—I knew something was wrong.” Brown underwent ultrasounds, X-rays, and a battery of tests within hours of arriving. Then, the doctors delivered the news: he had TB. “I told them no one gets TB,” he said. But Brown was quickly moved to a negative-pressure isolation room. “It turned out they were right. I had TB everywhere.” Shaka Brown The bacteria had spread from Brown’s lungs to nearly every organ in his body, including his bladder, brain, and spine. The infection had compromised his lower spine, causing sharp pain down his leg. “The hospital had a molecular diagnostic machine, which helped them quickly figure out that I needed a specialised drug regimen. The standard treatment wouldn’t work for me,” he said. “I started life-saving antibiotics the next day—over 15 pills every day. The TB growth was halted within a week. I remember slowly opening my eyes, surrounded by doctors who told me I was going to make it. It was only then I realised how close I’d come to not making it.” Despite daily pills, four months later, Brown was back in the hospital, this time with seizures and unable to speak. “The TB in my brain wasn’t going away as quickly as they hoped,” Brown said. A week later, he underwent brain surgery to remove the infection. His doctors added anti-seizure medication to his TB regimen. “They told me they’d stick with me every step of the way,” he added. However, as Brown highlighted Tuesday during a presentation of new TB data by the World Health Organization (WHO), not everyone shares his good fortune. “Twenty percent of people who get TB are never diagnosed and, therefore, never treated,” he said. “If we could just identify and treat those individuals, we could save lives. Every person we miss gives the bacteria a chance to evolve, weakening the effectiveness of current treatments. Yet, funding for research to develop effective drugs is decreasing.” TB is top infectious disease killer in 2023 World Health Organization’s 2024 Global Tuberculosis Report. Brown’s message was underscored by the WHO’s release of its 2024 Global Tuberculosis Report. The 68-page report offers comprehensive data on TB trends and the global response, covering 215 countries and regions, including all 193 WHO member states. It provides the latest insights into the TB epidemic, tracking global, regional, and national progress, along with the impact of key factors driving the disease. In 2023, TB reclaimed its position as the world’s leading infectious disease killer, following three years when COVID-19 took the lead. It caused almost twice as many deaths as HIV/AIDS. Specifically, there were an estimated 1.25 million deaths in 2023, including 161,000 amongst people with HIV. “The fact that TB still kills and sickens so many people is an outrage, when we have the tools to prevent it, detect it and treat it,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general. “WHO urges all countries to make good on the concrete commitments they have made to expand the use of those tools, and to end TB.” Globally, the number of deaths caused by TB fell in 2023, reinforcing the decline seen in 2022 after increases during the worst years of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the number of people contracting TB rose slightly to approximately 8.2 million, the highest number recorded since WHO began global TB monitoring in 1995. This represents a notable increase from the 7.5 million reported in 2022. Of those who developed TB, 55% were men, 33% were women, and 12% were children and young adolescents. While TB occurs worldwide, 87% of cases in 2023 came from 30 high-burden countries. The majority of new TB cases were in Southeast Asia (45%) and Africa (24%), with smaller percentages in the Western Pacific (17%), Eastern Mediterranean (8.6%), the Americas (3.2%), and Europe (2.1%). Eight countries accounted for two-thirds of the total: India, Indonesia, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Several major risk factors drive a significant portion of TB cases, including undernutrition, HIV infection, alcohol use disorders, smoking (especially amongst men), and diabetes. Since 2000, TB prevention and treatment efforts have saved 79 million lives. The global gap between estimated TB cases (incidents) and reported new diagnoses (notifications) narrowed to about 2.7 million in 2023, down from around 4 million in 2020 and 2021 and below the pre-pandemic level of 3.2 million in 2019. Drug-resistant TB remains a serious public health threat, said Dr. Tereza Kasaeva, WHO’s Global TB Program director. Presenting the data to health officials and the press on Tuesday alongside Brown, she noted that in 2023, 175,923 people were diagnosed and treated for multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB)—just 44% of the estimated 400,000 cases worldwide. Trial Finds Four New Treatment Options for Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis Kasaeva said progress toward global TB milestones and targets is lagging, including those set for 2027. Global funding for TB prevention and care dropped in 2023. Of the $22 billion target, only $5.7 billion was received—just 26% of the goal, with low- and middle-income countries bearing 98% of the TB burden. “With only 26% funding, it’s impossible to provide 100% access for everyone in need,” Kasaeva said. Domestic sources provided 80% of TB funding, while international funding for low- and middle-income countries has held steady at around $1.2 billion per year. Funding for TB research also remains critically low at around $1 billion per year—just a fifth of what’s needed. “This is absolutely insufficient,” Kasaeva said. “We are confronted with a multitude of formidable challenges: funding shortfalls and catastrophic financial burden on those affected, climate change, conflict, migration and displacement, pandemics, and drug-resistant tuberculosis, a significant driver of antimicrobial resistance,” Kasaeva added. “It is imperative that we unite across all sectors and stakeholders, to confront these pressing issues and ramp up our efforts.” ‘We can end TB’ Cheri Vincent, TB Division Chief at the US Agency for International Development (USAID) The United States is the largest bilateral donor to global TB efforts, thanks to bipartisan support from Congress, explained Cheri Vincent, TB Division Chief at the US Agency for International Development (USAID), who also spoke on Monday. Since 2000, USAID has invested $4.7 billion in the fight against TB. “We have a global TB strategy for 2023 to 2030 that focusses on our 24 priority countries,” Vincent said. The strategy aims to ensure that 90% of people with TB, including drug-resistant TB, are diagnosed and treated. It also seeks to provide preventive treatment for 30 million people eligible for it. “While it’s heartening to see some positive trends in our battle against TB, we must confront a harsh reality: despite our efforts, we are merely treading water, failing to make significant strides toward our goal of ending TB,” said Dr Cassandra Kelly-Cirino, executive director of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, in response to the report. “To create a world free from TB, we must urgently address the areas where we continue to fall short.” She added, “We’re diagnosing only 48% of the individuals needed to meet the 90% target. This is unacceptable. We must ramp up testing, ensure timely diagnosis, and support effective treatment to turn these numbers around and accelerate the reduction in the global TB incidence rate.” Similarly, Peter Sands, executive director of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, stated, “The big message from this year’s World TB Report is that if we act decisively, we can end TB.” “We have momentum, tools, and leadership, but we need more funding—and we also need to dismantle human rights and gender-related barriers that prevent people from accessing the services they need,” he continued. “Winning will take political will and sustained commitment. In a world facing increasing challenges from conflict and climate change, we cannot hesitate.” Image Credits: Stop TB Partnership, Shaka Brown's official website, World Health Organization. New Food Guidelines Aim to Clarify What Constitutes a ‘Healthy’ Diet 29/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy The joint statement comes as the science on the effects of ultra processed foods continues to evolve. Diets should be guided by four key principles, say the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) in a joint statement released this week. Their statement highlights the importance of adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse food intake, and aims to clarify what exactly a healthy diet means. “With such prominence in the scientific literature and public media has come a range of definitions and perspectives about what constitute healthy diets, and how these can be achieved, while protecting the environment,” the FAO said in an introduction to the statement. Unhealthy diets are a lead driver of non-communicable diseases like heart disease, obesity, and diabetes. FAO and WHO released the statement alongside this year’s annual meeting of the Committee on World Food Security, where stakeholders gathered to strengthen policy responses to food crises, and the Convention on Biodiversity in Cali, Colombia. Both events prompted the FAO and WHO to clarify the idea of a “healthy diet” while celebrating the “diversity of healthy dietary patterns.” Skirting questions about ultra-processed foods Ultra processed foods are linked to adverse health outcomes, yet it may take several more years for regulatory bodies to issue guidelines on UFP consumption. Food intake should be adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse, according to the statement. Diets should provide enough nutrients in a moderate and balanced way, with a wide-variety of nutrients across food groups. With daily media coverage of dietary advice, scientific studies on the ‘best’ diets, and the growing threat of climate change on food systems, the statement’s simple message consolidates several decades of scientific research Yet the statement acknowledges that further research is needed before issuing recommendations, especially on ultra-processed foods (UFP), including sugar-sweetened beverages and desserts, dyed snacks, and processed meats. More than 50% of energy intake comes from UFP in high-income countries, and this trend increasingly mirrored in lower- and middle- income countries. “It’s probably going to take another several years to have a sufficient evidence base,” noted Dr JoAnn Manson, a physician and researcher at Harvard, in a recent STAT news article. In the meantime, the WHO and FAO recommended “considering moderation” of UFP. Other regulatory bodies, including the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Health and Human Services (HHS), are set to issue their own dietary guidelines by the end of the year. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025-2030, edition, will also likely not include definitive advice about UFP. Image Credits: Scott Warman/ Unsplash, Leon Ephraim/ Unsplash. Global Emissions Set to Fall 2.6% by 2030 – 40% Short of Paris Agreement Target 28/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Climate plans ‘miles short’ of averting catastrophe, UN climate chief warns ahead of COP29. Global climate plans will cut emissions by just 2.6% by 2030, falling 40% short of what’s needed to keep a future within the Paris agreement’s 1.5C goal alive, according to a report released Monday by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The combined emissions cut by the national climate plans, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), have increased by a mere 0.6% since last year, an insignificant change that will not affect global warming trajectories, the UN climate body said in its annual assessment ahead of next month’s COP29 summit in Baku. “Current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country, said Simon Stiell, UNFCCC’s executive secretary. “Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.” As countries prepare to update their climate pledges ahead of next year’s COP30 in Brazil, time is running out to take the existential scale of the threat seriously. Since COP28, where countries adopted the UAE consensus reaffirming the 1.5ºC target established in 2015, only one nation has submitted updated climate plans under the treaty framework. World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action The UNFCCC’s dire assessment mirrors findings released last week by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), which reported that no policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented globally in 2023, putting the world on course for “catastrophic” warming of 3.1ºC by the end of the century. UNEP maintains that the 1.5ºC target – which its director called “one of the greatest asks of the modern era” – remains “technically possible” if there is “immediate global mobilisation on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” With global emissions set to exceed 1.5ºC of warming by 2050 – and a one-in-three chance of breaking 2ºC – UNEP’s chief called for a “quantum leap” in climate policy. Stiell echoed this urgency, demanding an immediate end to the “era of inadequacy” — and for “a new age of acceleration” to begin at next month’s COP29. “The last generation of NDCs set the signal for unstoppable change,” Stiell said. “New NDCs next year must outline a clear path to make it happen – by scaling up renewable energy, strengthening adaptation and accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies everywhere.” The latest warning shot Carbon dioxide is building up in Earth’s atmosphere at rates never before seen in human history, WMO reported Monday. With COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, just weeks away, a raft of new climate research has reinforced the alarm bells set off by the UNFCCC’s findings. Planet-warming greenhouse gases surged to record highs in 2023, reaching levels unprecedented in human history, new data released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) revealed on Monday. The UN weather agency found carbon dioxide concentrations rose more than 10% in the past decade, while methane and nitrous oxide, short-lived but powerful greenhouse gases, also saw significant increases. Carbon dioxide levels are now 51% higher than in pre-industrial times, when humans began burning fossil fuels at scale, while methane levels have risen 161% and nitrous oxide 25% over the same period, locking Earth’s atmosphere into a warming trajectory for at least the lifecycle of these gases. “Another year. Another record,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo. “These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.” “This should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers,” Saulo said. Carbon dioxide is accumulating “faster than any time experienced during human existence” due to “stubbornly high fossil fuel” emissions, widespread forest fires, and a likely reduction in the ability of natural carbon sinks — such as oceans and forests — to absorb CO2, WMO said. The 2023 increase of 2.3 parts per million marked the 12th straight year of rises above 2ppm – a rate of increase that would have taken centuries to occur naturally before industrialization. “The record levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere are the logical outcome of the record amounts of greenhouse gases that our economies continue to dump into our ambient air,” Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and lead author of the report, told the Guardian. “This doesn’t need to be the end of the story.” Earth’s systems near breaking point The WMO report raises fresh alarms about nature’s carbon sinks — oceans, forests, plants and soil that absorb carbon dioxide — and it isn’t alone. Earlier this month, international researchers released preliminary findings indicating forests, plants and soil absorbed almost no net carbon in 2023, suggesting they could be nearing a tipping point. These natural buffers, long taken for granted in climate models, may be failing. Earth’s natural carbon sinks absorb nearly 50% of our carbon emissions, and their collapse could be catastrophic and rapidly accelerate global warming beyond current worst-case scenario projections. “We see a sudden drop of the land carbon sinks from extreme warming and Amazon mega-drought,” said Philippe Ciais, one of the report’s lead authors. “If this decline continues, we may see a rapid acceleration of CO2 and global warming which was unforeseen in future climate models’ projections.” Collapse of Atlantic current Meanwhile, 40 of the world’s leading experts on ocean and climate science penned an urgent open letter presented at the Arctic Circle conference in Iceland last week warning that the risk of collapse of a vital Atlantic current system, known as the AMOC, has been “greatly underestimated.” The collapse of this system, one of the planet’s largest arteries transporting heat around the world’s oceans, would have “potentially catastrophic consequences” and trigger “devastating and irreversible climate impacts,” the letter warned. The worst impacts would be felt in Nordic countries and “potentially threaten the viability of agriculture in northwestern Europe,” while global impacts would include reduced CO2 absorption by oceans, major sea-level rise, and a shift in tropical rainforest belts, meaning rains would no longer fall on the forests they keep alive – triggering droughts above rainforests vital to absorbing CO2 – and flood the new regions they settle over. “This has happened repeatedly in Earth’s history, most recently during the last ice age,” Stefan Rahmstorf, a signatory of the open letter and head of the Earth system analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in an interview with the Guardian. “These are among the most massive upheavals of climate conditions in Earth’s history,” Rahmstorf said. “I am now very concerned that we may push Amoc over this tipping point in the next decades. If you ask me my gut feeling, I would say the risk that we cross the tipping point this century is about 50/50.” “We don’t know where the tipping point is.” Image Credits: RecondOil. Nations Deadlocked Over Health-Biodiversity Framework at COP16 26/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Negotiations continue on health provisions in biodiversity plans as the UN summit in Cali reaches its midpoint. Only 35 countries have submitted the national strategies required by the UN biodiversity treaty showing how they’ll meet its binding nature protection targets. While 33 of these plans recognise links between human health and biodiversity, they offer few specifics on implementation and policy, a Health Policy Watch analysis found. Negotiators in Cali aim to bridge the gap this week by adopting a global health action plan under the treaty that provides a roadmap for meeting its health protection requirements. Midway through the UN biodiversity summit COP16 in Cali, Colombia, delegates from nearly 200 countries remain deadlocked over rules to protect human health from Earth’s mounting ecological crisis. UN Environment chief Inger Andersen urged delegates Thursday to break the impasse over the Global Action Plan on Biodiversity and Health, which would align conservation efforts with human health priorities as nations wrestle with implementing the landmark 2022 Montreal biodiversity treaty. “Our health cannot be separated from the health of the planet and its many species,” she told delegates in Cali. “We must adopt this action plan and implement it with a holistic, systemic approach that unifies action across health, environment, finance, industry and agriculture.” Over the weekend Biodiversity deal seeks health rules – but keeps them voluntary The world agreed to protect nature in Montreal two years ago. Now in Cali, countries must figure out how. The proposed framework would strengthen the 2022 Kunming-Montreal biodiversity agreement – nature’s equivalent to the Paris Climate Accord – which committed 197 nations to protect 30% of Earth’s land and seas by 2030, but left crucial health provisions largely undefined. While the Convention on Biodiversity itself is legally binding, the proposed health framework would serve as a voluntary roadmap for nations. It calls for health impact assessments in land-use planning, disease surveillance where habitat loss is rapid, and stricter wildlife trade rules — measures experts say are vital to prevent pathogens spreading from wild animals to human communities and food markets. The framework also emphasises protecting genetic resources crucial for new medicine development and ensuring vulnerable populations have access to nature’s health benefits. The push comes amid controversy at the UN biodiversity summit over countries’ rights to demand “benefit sharing” when genetic resources, including digital sequences, are used in drug development — a fight at the frontiers of biodiversity science that nearly derailed the landmark 2022 Montreal agreement. Beyond the fight over genetic resources, nations broadly agree on the framework’s other targets: combating vector-borne diseases emerging from shrinking habitats, reducing chemical exposure from industry, and protecting communities from the toxic toll of mass pesticide use. If approved, the plan’s voluntary nature, combined with history, suggests an uphill battle: the world has not met a single UN biodiversity goal since talks began in Nairobi over 30 years ago. Sweeping New Global Biodiversity Deal Sets Out Plan for Sharing Gene Sequences The health focus at the UN biodiversity summit reflects a broader shift in environmental diplomacy, marked by the first-ever Health Day at UN climate talks (COP28) in Dubai last year. While biodiversity has long been valued for medical discoveries — nearly half of all pharmaceuticals in use today are originally derived from nature — scientists increasingly see ecosystem protection as vital for preventing disease outbreaks, controlling disease vectors, and limiting chemical exposure. Biodiversity loss and climate change have emerged as the leading drivers of infectious diseases worldwide, amplifying 58% of outbreaks. The mounting threat is forcing policymakers to reckon with an increasingly inescapable truth: human survival depends entirely on Earth’s life-sustaining systems — clean water, air, and food. “Framing biodiversity as a resource – something separate, something that gives – has led to humanity converting nature, driving species to extinction, polluting ecosystems and pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” Andersen said. “But humanity is not separate from or above biodiversity. And in a closed system such as Earth, what goes around comes around.” Deep divisions over superbug prevention and drug development mirror COP16 tensions The Biodiversity-Health framework is one of the most contested documents being negotiated at COP16 in Cali, Colombia this week, according to Carbon Brief. The 24-page Biodiversity-Health framework is as one of the summit’s most contested documents, with 54 bracketed sections exposing fundamental disagreements between nations. The disputed clauses reflect wider fault lines in Cali. Nations remain divided over whether to classify improperly disposed antibiotic waste – a key driver of antimicrobial resistance – as “pollution” alongside microplastics and heavy metals. Proposals to “avoid the inappropriate use and disposal” of antibiotics are also unsettled, despite safe disposal practices being critical to preserving the efficacy drugs that save hundreds of millions of lives annually. The sharing of benefits from genetic resources is another flashpoint. Developing nations demand strong commitments on technology transfer, while wealthy countries insist such transfers must remain “voluntary.” Nations with major pharmaceutical industries have pushed also back against draft language that would hold companies accountable for “the misappropriation of genetic resources and digital sequence information and associated traditional knowledge. A crucial sticking point centres on whether to include “derivatives” and “subsequent applications and commercialisation” – essentially determining if companies must share benefits when they develop new products based on initial discoveries. Without such provisions, firms could potentially avoid sharing profits from derivative drugs or applications. Finance – the dominant issue of COP16’s opening week – is another key battleground in the health framework. Nations have yet to approve clauses that would provide financial support to developing countries, which host most of the world’s biodiversity, for implementing plans to protect it. Of the few plans submitted, most consider health Of 35 submitted biodiversity plans, Western Europe leads with 13, followed by Asia-Pacific with 10, while Africa filed 5, Latin America 4, and Eastern Europe 3, according to the COP16 database. National biodiversity plans submitted before this week’s summit in Colombia summit reveal wide variations in scope and specificity for how countries intend to tackle environmental protection and human health concerns, a Health Policy Watch analysis of the COP16 database found. Only 35 nations – just 18% – submitted biodiversity strategies, known as NBSAPs in UN jargon, by Monday’s UN summit deadline. All but Mexico and Jordan included human health concerns in their plans. The submitted plans reflect clear regional priorities. European Union members emphasize a comprehensive “one health” approach that links human, animal and environmental welfare, focusing heavily on pesticide and chemical pollution regulation – areas where the EU leads global policy. Colombia’s strategy takes a different focus, centering on health impacts from extractive industries, particularly mercury contamination from mining. In contrast, China and South Korea’s plans barely mention health, making single references to urban green spaces’ benefits for respiratory and mental health. These varied approaches come as research increasingly links ecosystem destruction to public health crises, from floods to disease outbreaks. Scientists have documented two virus spillovers to humans annually over the past century, culminating in the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Health Organization projects climate change could cause 250,000 additional deaths yearly between 2030-2050. Antimicrobial resistance already claims 1.4 million lives annually, while environmental degradation could cause 39 million deaths from 2025-2050. The proposed health framework, though voluntary, would set higher standards than current national plans. “From the air we breathe to the water we drink, our health is tied to the health of the planet,” said UN Environment chief Andersen. “We need a plan to protect biodiversity for the health of all species on earth.” Critical regions and powers missing from submissions While most nations haven’t submitted biodiversity plans required by the Montreal deal, officials say the two-year timeline was ambitious given ecosystem complexity, especially in regions like the Amazon. Of the 17 nations hosting 70% of Earth’s biodiversity, only five have filed plans: Australia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Mexico. The crucial Amazon region is represented solely by Suriname, with no submissions from Congo Basin nations. The G7 economic powers showed limited participation, with only Canada, Italy, France and Japan meeting the deadline. Among G20 members, Brazil indicated it needs more time to develop its long-term conservation strategy, while India plans to announce its commitments during the summit. “The start was never going to be fast. I think the important thing we’re looking at is the work is underway,” UN biodiversity chief Astrid Schomaker told Carbon Brief about the limited submissions. “Whether the deadline itself is met on the dot is not what I think we’re really looking at,” Schomaker said, adding she is “confident” this work is taking place globally. “I think our assessment is globally positive.” Biodiversity and health deal advances, but key framework still faces hurdles Negotiations on biodiversity and health took a step forward on Sunday as the second working group’s chair presented a draft decision – a document separate from but related to the broader biodiversity and health action plan. While the draft includes a provision to adopt the action plan, this remains in brackets, indicating no consensus has yet been reached among member states. The draft makes several key advances, eliminating previous disputes over antimicrobial disposal protocols and removing qualifiers that made technology sharing optional. It also strengthens provisions for Indigenous peoples’ participation in global biodiversity initiatives and decision-making forums. However, several contentious issues from the main biodiversity framework remain unresolved. These include questions of pharmaceutical companies’ liability regarding genetic resource usage and digital sequence information, whether derivatives and commercial applications should be included in fair and equitable benefit-sharing arrangements, and the creation of international oversight mechanisms to ensure countries meet their biodiversity and health commitments. Finance remains a critical hurdle in the health and broader COP16 negotiations. While eight nations boosted the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund this week with pledges totaling $163m, bringing available funding to $400m, this falls dramatically short of global needs. The Kunming-Montreal agreement calls for $200bn annually for nature protection – 500 times the current fund’s total, which isn’t even structured as yearly financing. Though there is broad agreement on the principle of financial support from development banks and environmental funds, the mechanisms for distribution remain hotly contested. As with previous UN environmental negotiations, talks may extend beyond the official Friday deadline as delegates work to bridge these remaining gaps. This article was updated to reflect progress in the negotiations Image Credits: CIFOR-ICRAF. Egyptians Still Face Barriers to Insulin Access, Despite Promises of Expanded Domestic Production 25/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy A view point in Minya Governorate. Nearly 11 million Egyptians live with diabetes, where insulin access is increasingly out of reach for those in rural areas. MINYA GOVERNORATE, EGYPT – Nine-year-old Adam needs an insulin shot before meals, and seems unphased when his father checks his sugar levels with a finger pricking. He looks away when a small blood drop wells on the tip of his finger. Adam turns back to his plate of rice and stewed vegetables, continuing to ramble about the kids in his summer camp. Both Adam and his father are diabetic in a rural village in Upper Egypt, where their struggle to access insulin mirrors a broader struggle across the country, and the continent. In a country where over 18% of adults live with diabetes, and with the number of adults living with diabetes expected to hit 20 million by 2045, diagnosis, monitoring, and medication are all difficult to come by. In response, Egypt is now taking significant steps to expand insulin access and diabetes prevention–in the context of rising prevalence. But financial and logistic barriers as well as competing political priorities still leave rural families at the ‘last mile’ of service in a precarious situation. New diagnostics more widely available – but shortages, power cuts, and inflation threaten access Moussa, with his son Adam, shows a continuous glucose monitor in their home in Upper Egypt. To address the growing health and financial burden of the disease, the Egyptian National Health Insurance system recently began to cover the initial cost of a glucometer for newly diagnosed people as well as 25 test strips per month. Yet while over-the-counter glucose monitoring ads flood US airwaves for non-diabetic consumers, many Egyptians, like people in other developing world countries, still struggle to obtain such basic devices for diabetes control. Diabetes care coverage remains below 50 percent for low- and middle-income countries, according to a Lancet estimate. Many or most low-income and informal Egyptian laborers simply don’t have health insurance while their income are not enough to afford their monthly diabetes supplies, notes T1 International, a non-profit diabetes care advocacy group: “It can cost someone more than 50% of their salary to get the basic diabetes supplies,” said Dr Mohamed Shabeen in a T1 article. Moussa’s stash of insulin pens and glucose monitors for the village. Paying for test strips, monitors, and insulin are just one part of the country’s $3 billion diabetes-related annual health expenditure. The International Diabetes Federation estimates this number will rise to $4.5 billion by 2045, a concern given Egypt’s rising national debt and economic woes – with the Egyptian pound devalued by more than 50 percent and food inflation over 60 percent. There are also indirect costs for diabetics. For instance, Adam’s parents enrolled him in a pricier private school, over fears that in the overcrowded public schools, Adam could go into insulin shock unnoticed. “I was worried he would go into a ketone coma (ketoacidosis),” said Moussa, Adam’s father, and English teacher who is one of the few-college educated people in his village of some 2,000 people. “I became diabetic in 2018, Adam in 2019. I noticed a lot of the same symptoms. “When he was diagnosed, I did so much research. I had to learn about the condition because there is so little information for people with diabetes.” Moussa ended up buying a Freestyle Libre glucose monitoring system so Adam could attend school uninterrupted, but it soon became too expensive “and we’re facing a shortage.” Villages, in Minya Governorate, like Moussa’s, struggle with affording insulin – and keeping it refrigerated during power outages. There are several other people living with diabetes in his village, Moussa explained, and they have formed a network, providing each other with valuable social support. “We have a WhatsApp group. If someone has extra medication, they give it to me and then I distribute it to others that need it.” The summer, however, was especially challenging as 40 ℃ temperatures were accompanied by prolonged power cuts, threatening insulin refrigeration. Diabetes ascendant – 11 million and climbing Diabetes treatment coverage remains below 50% across a variety of metrics in low- and middle-income countries. In WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, which includes most of the Middle East and North Africa, one in six adults now live with diabetes, making it the region with the highest prevalence at 16.2% and the second highest expected increase (86%) in the number of people with diabetes.The region also has the highest percentage (24.5%) of diabetes-related deaths in people of working age. In Egypt, the country is now one of many facing a double burden of malnutrition (DBM)–where 21% of children under five are stunted yet over half of children and adolescents are overweight or obese. The country’s rapidly rising rates of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) like diabetes, heart disease, and chronic respiratory diseases means that NCDs account for 82% of all deaths in Egypt and 67% of premature deaths. Public health experts point to the region’s lifestyle changes – a diet heavy in sugar and carbohydrates, lack of exercise, and other risk factors – as fueling the rise in NCDs. New domestic insulin production in limbo A view of the village in Minya Governorate, where the growing prevalence of diabetes threatens the village’s well being. In terms of treatment, there is little local insulin manufacturing in Egypt as well as the rest of Africa, leaving people to depend on expensive, important supplies. Several big initiatives have recently been announced to change that. But their status remains unclear. In May, 2023, Eli Lilly announced a major new partnership with the Egypt-based pharmaceutical company EVA Pharma to provide the company with the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) of insulin at a “significantly reduced price.” Just last month, EVA Pharma’s CEO Dr Riad Armanious declared in a press release that “locally manufactured insulin is currently a top priority, aiming for local supply and exporting it to more than 60 countries.” However, actual rollout of the plan still appears to be in limbo, with neither company responding when asked for comment by Health Policy Watch about the status of the new manufacturing plans. That, despite an August statement by Egypt’s Minister of Health and Population Khaled Abdel Ghaffar told press that the insulin shortage “would be over within three months” and that the country would produce a million more insulin vials a month, in coming months. He blamed a foreign currency shortage for the holdup in importation of critical raw ingredients needed to expand production, but “that the problem had been solved.” Egypt is home to some 170 pharmaceutical factories – and state-owned companies already produce as much as 15 million vials yearly – but much of this also reportedly goes to export. This leaves Egyptians, who need some 27 million vials a year, in an even greater bind. Additionally, observers in the field say privately that the local products are not yet as of good quality as imported ones – something that the partnership between Eli Lilly and Eva should help address. WHO – no further details on the rollout of manufacturing Dr Loyce Pace, with WHO’s Dr Bente Mikkelsen, Africa CDC’s Dr Jean Kaseya and EVA Pharma CEO Riad Armanious at the EVA-Lilly partnership announcement last year. Asked for comment, the World Health Organization also was unable to offer further updates on a timeline for Egypt’s rollout of its much-touted expanded insulin production. WHO is not a direct partner in the Eli Lilly-Eva partnership, but it has been “actively engaging with various stakeholders, including the private sector, to fulfill commitments made in the UN Political Declaration on NCDs,” said Dr Bente Mikkelsen Director, just prior to her retirement on 1 October as head of WHO’s Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, Rehabilitation and Disability (NCD). “Several companies have responded positively to these ‘asks’, including commitments to local manufacturing,” she added, in a comment to Health Policy Watch. Meanwhile, in Minya Governorate, Moussa has been traveling more frequently to Cairo some four hours away by car “to get good healthcare” – after monitoring Adam’s symptoms, as well as his own, and their similarities. But he still hopes that he and others in his community can eventually get quality insulin and glucose monitors at a fairer price locally. “Right now, I’m getting them from Cairo, and we have to pay taxes and customs. It would be great for all these people in our community to be able to afford this as well.” Image Credits: S. Samantaroy/HPW, The Lancet. Another Rwandan Health Worker Gets Marburg, While Cases of Children Co-infected with Mpox and Measles Rise 24/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Dr Ngashi Ngongo (Africa CDC) and Dr Jean-Marie Yameogo (WHO), the continental co-leads on mpox. Rwanda has recorded its 63rd Marburg case, while cases of children coinfected with both mpox and measles are rising in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) weekly media briefing on Thursday. After 10 days of no new cases, a health worker who has been caring for Marburg patients tested positive for the virus on Wednesday night, Rwandan Health Minister Dr Sabin Nsanzimana told the briefing. But the health worker was vaccinated a few days ago and is “doing well” with disease presentation that was “not usual”, Nsanzimana added. “The good thing is that the person has been in a treatment centre and has no contacts outside the centre,” he added. Meanwhile, the source of the Marburg outbreak has been traced to fruit bats in a cave where the index case had been mining, said Nsanzimana. Once this had been confirmed, all human activity at the cave had been stopped and the government is following up on the people working there, to make sure they they don’t develop the disease, he added. Genome sequencing of the virus confirmed that it was both very close to the zoonotic source – the virus in the bats – and to other Marburg cases imported into the country. This underscored the importance of a One Health approach involving experts on human and animal health and the environment, said Nsanzimana. Mpox testing slowly improving Some 2,729 new mpox cases were reported in the past week – over 90% of which in DRC and Burundi, although Liberia, Kenya and Uganda reported new cases, according to Dr Ngashi Ngongo, Africa CDC’s lead on mpox. There has been an increase in mpox patients under the age of 15 being co-infected with measles in the DRC, particularly in Nord Kivu and Sud Kivu – but it is unclear whether one disease made children susceptible to the other. Little more than half the children in these areas have been vaccinated against measles and there is also a high malnutrition rate, which weakens the children’s immune systems, said Ngongo. “We haven’t yet established if the fact that you get measles, then increase your chances of getting mpox and vice versa,” he added. The DRC’s vaccination campaign underway in six provinces, was generally going well with over 39,000 people vaccinated. Nigeria plans to launch its vaccination campaign on 29 October. “We have 5.6 million doses of mpox vaccines that have been confirmed, of which 2.5 million are MVA-BN and three million of the LC16 from Japan,” said Ngongo. Close to 900,000 doses of MVA-BN are available this month October, with another 700,000 potentially available in November, which he described as being “enough, at least, for the moment, to cover the plans that we have received”. However, getting vaccines for children remains a challenge although World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the MVA-BN can be used “off label” for children at risk. After weeks of struggling to increase testing, there had been a 37% increase in tests in the past week – and a big jump in test positivity from 36.5% to 63%. This can be attributed to training on sample management, PCR and Gene Xpert testing, more sequencing equipment, as well as the distribution of more Gene Xperts cartridges (to run the machines), and PCR tests being set to affected countries. No new cases have been recorded in Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, Rwanda and South Africa in the past four weeks. However, surveillance has been a huge challenge, said Ngongo. Only four of the 18 affected countries had reached contact tracing targets of 10 per patient. Meanwhile, the Robert Koch Institute in Germany reported the country’s first case of mpox Clade 1b. The patient recently traveled out of the country, but it not clear where he been. Outside of Africa, Sweden and Thailand have also each reported a case of mpox 1b, the more virulent version of the . World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action 24/10/2024 Stefan Anderson No policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented worldwide in 2023. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain catastrophically off track, with current policies putting the world on course for a 3.1°C temperature rise by century’s end, the UN Environment Programme warned Thursday in its annual “Emissions Gap” report. To keep the 1.5°C target alive, nations must slash emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 – yet emissions continue to climb, hitting record highs last year. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters at the report’s launch. “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly intense climate disasters worldwide,” Guterres said. “People are paying a terrible price.” Despite a year marked by devastating hurricanes, droughts and floods, no country implemented policies “with significant implications for global emissions in 2023,” UNEP found. “Another year has passed without action, and that means we’re worse off,” said Ann Olhoff, the report’s lead scientific editor. “The findings are fairly similar to last year, apart from emissions still going up.” Twenty-nine years after international climate talks began, the sum total of global climate pledges – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would allow temperatures to rise by a “catastrophic” 2.6°C, even if fully implemented, according to the report. Most major economies, including many G20 nations, are failing to meet even these insufficient commitments – let alone achieve the 42% emissions cuts needed. By mid-century, current trajectories point to warming well above 1.5°C, with up to a one-in-three chance of exceeding 2°C. The report warns that warming is expected to intensify beyond 2100, as CO2 emissions are not projected to reach net zero under existing scenarios. Each year of delay makes the task harder: Global emissions must now fall 7.5% every year until 2035 to keep warming to 1.5 C. For a 2 C limit, yearly cuts of 4% are needed. “If we procrastinate, that figure will obviously grow with every year of inaction,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “Nations must show a massive increase in ambition in these new NDCs, accompanied by rapid delivery, or the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C will be dead within a few years.” With nations due to update their climate pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year, UNEP says this represents a make-or-break moment. The new commitments must deliver what the agency calls a “quantum leap” to avoid planetary catastrophe. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era,” Andersen said. “We may not make it. But the only certain path to failure is not trying.” Going backwards The Emissions Gap remains unchanged since UNEP issued the last edition of its annual report last year. In a year that demanded cuts, emissions instead rose 1.3% to record levels in 2023, with coal accounting for 65% of the increase, according to the International Energy Agency. While record deployments of renewable energy, nuclear power and electric vehicles helped curb emissions growth, they couldn’t keep pace with rising energy demand and the impact of severe droughts on hydropower generation. Without this rapid expansion of clean technologies, emissions growth would have been three times higher, according to IEA data. Only one pathway identified in the report halts warming beyond 2100: All 107 countries with net-zero pledges must deliver on their promises and quickly put their plans into action. This could cap warming at 1.9°C, but UNEP has “low” confidence countries will follow through. Countries accounting for 82% of global emissions have made net-zero promises, but progress has stalled. “Current policies, conditional NDCs, unconditional NDCs – in any of these scenarios, whether emissions peak and fall a small amount or plateau, all of them represent a lost decade,” said Neil Grant, a lead author of the report. “Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change.” G20 nations must ‘do the heavy lifting’ Just six countries accounted for 63% of global emissions in 2023, with the least developed nations contributing only 3%, highlighting particular concerns about inaction among major emitters, especially the G20. “We identified very few newly adopted policies [by G20 nations] underpinned by quantitative assessments that deliver considerable emission reduction impact by 2030 or beyond. This is very worrying,” said Takeshi Kuramochi, lead author of the G20 section of the report. “It’s been a calm past 12 months, in a negative way.” Seven G20 members – China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey – have not yet reached peak emissions, a pre-requisite to achieving net zero. For G20 nations that have peaked, including the US, EU, Russia and Canada, “their rate of decarbonization would need to accelerate – in some cases dramatically – after 2030 to achieve their net-zero goals unless they accelerate action now,” UNEP found. “We must remember that 1.5°C is not an on-off switch that will plunge the world into an era of darkness and chaos,” Andersen said. “We are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved.” “The G20, particularly the members that dominate emissions, need to do the heavy lifting,” Andersen added. “Climate crunch time is here.” ‘Wartime’ mobilization is required to keep 1.5C alive While there is “no chance” of limiting global warming to 1.5C under current policies, UNEP insists the target remains “technically possible” – but only through “immediate global mobilization on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” A sweeping transformation of energy, transport, and land use could cut 31 gigatonnes of CO2 annually – equivalent to 52% of global emissions – through existing technologies costing less than $200 per ton of carbon, UNEP estimates. Solar and wind energy alone could deliver 27% of required emissions cuts by 2030, rising to 38% by 2035, while forest protection and restoration could contribute another 20%. Together, these measures would deliver the steep emissions cuts scientists say are needed to keep 1.5C alive. “Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar power and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors,” Andersen said. “This is a gargantuan task that requires global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. But it does, for the moment, remain technically possible.” The price tag for this transformation is steep but achievable, according to UNEP. Annual investment in mitigation measures must increase six-fold to 11.7$ trillion per year by 2035 – approximately 10% of the global economy. “These investments don’t even take all the benefits into account and the avoided damages,” Olhoff said. “It would be very costly not to invest in a green transition.” This is a developing story and will be updated. Image Credits: Joanne Francis. 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New Food Guidelines Aim to Clarify What Constitutes a ‘Healthy’ Diet 29/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy The joint statement comes as the science on the effects of ultra processed foods continues to evolve. Diets should be guided by four key principles, say the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) in a joint statement released this week. Their statement highlights the importance of adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse food intake, and aims to clarify what exactly a healthy diet means. “With such prominence in the scientific literature and public media has come a range of definitions and perspectives about what constitute healthy diets, and how these can be achieved, while protecting the environment,” the FAO said in an introduction to the statement. Unhealthy diets are a lead driver of non-communicable diseases like heart disease, obesity, and diabetes. FAO and WHO released the statement alongside this year’s annual meeting of the Committee on World Food Security, where stakeholders gathered to strengthen policy responses to food crises, and the Convention on Biodiversity in Cali, Colombia. Both events prompted the FAO and WHO to clarify the idea of a “healthy diet” while celebrating the “diversity of healthy dietary patterns.” Skirting questions about ultra-processed foods Ultra processed foods are linked to adverse health outcomes, yet it may take several more years for regulatory bodies to issue guidelines on UFP consumption. Food intake should be adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse, according to the statement. Diets should provide enough nutrients in a moderate and balanced way, with a wide-variety of nutrients across food groups. With daily media coverage of dietary advice, scientific studies on the ‘best’ diets, and the growing threat of climate change on food systems, the statement’s simple message consolidates several decades of scientific research Yet the statement acknowledges that further research is needed before issuing recommendations, especially on ultra-processed foods (UFP), including sugar-sweetened beverages and desserts, dyed snacks, and processed meats. More than 50% of energy intake comes from UFP in high-income countries, and this trend increasingly mirrored in lower- and middle- income countries. “It’s probably going to take another several years to have a sufficient evidence base,” noted Dr JoAnn Manson, a physician and researcher at Harvard, in a recent STAT news article. In the meantime, the WHO and FAO recommended “considering moderation” of UFP. Other regulatory bodies, including the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Health and Human Services (HHS), are set to issue their own dietary guidelines by the end of the year. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025-2030, edition, will also likely not include definitive advice about UFP. Image Credits: Scott Warman/ Unsplash, Leon Ephraim/ Unsplash. Global Emissions Set to Fall 2.6% by 2030 – 40% Short of Paris Agreement Target 28/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Climate plans ‘miles short’ of averting catastrophe, UN climate chief warns ahead of COP29. Global climate plans will cut emissions by just 2.6% by 2030, falling 40% short of what’s needed to keep a future within the Paris agreement’s 1.5C goal alive, according to a report released Monday by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The combined emissions cut by the national climate plans, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), have increased by a mere 0.6% since last year, an insignificant change that will not affect global warming trajectories, the UN climate body said in its annual assessment ahead of next month’s COP29 summit in Baku. “Current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country, said Simon Stiell, UNFCCC’s executive secretary. “Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.” As countries prepare to update their climate pledges ahead of next year’s COP30 in Brazil, time is running out to take the existential scale of the threat seriously. Since COP28, where countries adopted the UAE consensus reaffirming the 1.5ºC target established in 2015, only one nation has submitted updated climate plans under the treaty framework. World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action The UNFCCC’s dire assessment mirrors findings released last week by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), which reported that no policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented globally in 2023, putting the world on course for “catastrophic” warming of 3.1ºC by the end of the century. UNEP maintains that the 1.5ºC target – which its director called “one of the greatest asks of the modern era” – remains “technically possible” if there is “immediate global mobilisation on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” With global emissions set to exceed 1.5ºC of warming by 2050 – and a one-in-three chance of breaking 2ºC – UNEP’s chief called for a “quantum leap” in climate policy. Stiell echoed this urgency, demanding an immediate end to the “era of inadequacy” — and for “a new age of acceleration” to begin at next month’s COP29. “The last generation of NDCs set the signal for unstoppable change,” Stiell said. “New NDCs next year must outline a clear path to make it happen – by scaling up renewable energy, strengthening adaptation and accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies everywhere.” The latest warning shot Carbon dioxide is building up in Earth’s atmosphere at rates never before seen in human history, WMO reported Monday. With COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, just weeks away, a raft of new climate research has reinforced the alarm bells set off by the UNFCCC’s findings. Planet-warming greenhouse gases surged to record highs in 2023, reaching levels unprecedented in human history, new data released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) revealed on Monday. The UN weather agency found carbon dioxide concentrations rose more than 10% in the past decade, while methane and nitrous oxide, short-lived but powerful greenhouse gases, also saw significant increases. Carbon dioxide levels are now 51% higher than in pre-industrial times, when humans began burning fossil fuels at scale, while methane levels have risen 161% and nitrous oxide 25% over the same period, locking Earth’s atmosphere into a warming trajectory for at least the lifecycle of these gases. “Another year. Another record,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo. “These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.” “This should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers,” Saulo said. Carbon dioxide is accumulating “faster than any time experienced during human existence” due to “stubbornly high fossil fuel” emissions, widespread forest fires, and a likely reduction in the ability of natural carbon sinks — such as oceans and forests — to absorb CO2, WMO said. The 2023 increase of 2.3 parts per million marked the 12th straight year of rises above 2ppm – a rate of increase that would have taken centuries to occur naturally before industrialization. “The record levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere are the logical outcome of the record amounts of greenhouse gases that our economies continue to dump into our ambient air,” Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and lead author of the report, told the Guardian. “This doesn’t need to be the end of the story.” Earth’s systems near breaking point The WMO report raises fresh alarms about nature’s carbon sinks — oceans, forests, plants and soil that absorb carbon dioxide — and it isn’t alone. Earlier this month, international researchers released preliminary findings indicating forests, plants and soil absorbed almost no net carbon in 2023, suggesting they could be nearing a tipping point. These natural buffers, long taken for granted in climate models, may be failing. Earth’s natural carbon sinks absorb nearly 50% of our carbon emissions, and their collapse could be catastrophic and rapidly accelerate global warming beyond current worst-case scenario projections. “We see a sudden drop of the land carbon sinks from extreme warming and Amazon mega-drought,” said Philippe Ciais, one of the report’s lead authors. “If this decline continues, we may see a rapid acceleration of CO2 and global warming which was unforeseen in future climate models’ projections.” Collapse of Atlantic current Meanwhile, 40 of the world’s leading experts on ocean and climate science penned an urgent open letter presented at the Arctic Circle conference in Iceland last week warning that the risk of collapse of a vital Atlantic current system, known as the AMOC, has been “greatly underestimated.” The collapse of this system, one of the planet’s largest arteries transporting heat around the world’s oceans, would have “potentially catastrophic consequences” and trigger “devastating and irreversible climate impacts,” the letter warned. The worst impacts would be felt in Nordic countries and “potentially threaten the viability of agriculture in northwestern Europe,” while global impacts would include reduced CO2 absorption by oceans, major sea-level rise, and a shift in tropical rainforest belts, meaning rains would no longer fall on the forests they keep alive – triggering droughts above rainforests vital to absorbing CO2 – and flood the new regions they settle over. “This has happened repeatedly in Earth’s history, most recently during the last ice age,” Stefan Rahmstorf, a signatory of the open letter and head of the Earth system analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in an interview with the Guardian. “These are among the most massive upheavals of climate conditions in Earth’s history,” Rahmstorf said. “I am now very concerned that we may push Amoc over this tipping point in the next decades. If you ask me my gut feeling, I would say the risk that we cross the tipping point this century is about 50/50.” “We don’t know where the tipping point is.” Image Credits: RecondOil. Nations Deadlocked Over Health-Biodiversity Framework at COP16 26/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Negotiations continue on health provisions in biodiversity plans as the UN summit in Cali reaches its midpoint. Only 35 countries have submitted the national strategies required by the UN biodiversity treaty showing how they’ll meet its binding nature protection targets. While 33 of these plans recognise links between human health and biodiversity, they offer few specifics on implementation and policy, a Health Policy Watch analysis found. Negotiators in Cali aim to bridge the gap this week by adopting a global health action plan under the treaty that provides a roadmap for meeting its health protection requirements. Midway through the UN biodiversity summit COP16 in Cali, Colombia, delegates from nearly 200 countries remain deadlocked over rules to protect human health from Earth’s mounting ecological crisis. UN Environment chief Inger Andersen urged delegates Thursday to break the impasse over the Global Action Plan on Biodiversity and Health, which would align conservation efforts with human health priorities as nations wrestle with implementing the landmark 2022 Montreal biodiversity treaty. “Our health cannot be separated from the health of the planet and its many species,” she told delegates in Cali. “We must adopt this action plan and implement it with a holistic, systemic approach that unifies action across health, environment, finance, industry and agriculture.” Over the weekend Biodiversity deal seeks health rules – but keeps them voluntary The world agreed to protect nature in Montreal two years ago. Now in Cali, countries must figure out how. The proposed framework would strengthen the 2022 Kunming-Montreal biodiversity agreement – nature’s equivalent to the Paris Climate Accord – which committed 197 nations to protect 30% of Earth’s land and seas by 2030, but left crucial health provisions largely undefined. While the Convention on Biodiversity itself is legally binding, the proposed health framework would serve as a voluntary roadmap for nations. It calls for health impact assessments in land-use planning, disease surveillance where habitat loss is rapid, and stricter wildlife trade rules — measures experts say are vital to prevent pathogens spreading from wild animals to human communities and food markets. The framework also emphasises protecting genetic resources crucial for new medicine development and ensuring vulnerable populations have access to nature’s health benefits. The push comes amid controversy at the UN biodiversity summit over countries’ rights to demand “benefit sharing” when genetic resources, including digital sequences, are used in drug development — a fight at the frontiers of biodiversity science that nearly derailed the landmark 2022 Montreal agreement. Beyond the fight over genetic resources, nations broadly agree on the framework’s other targets: combating vector-borne diseases emerging from shrinking habitats, reducing chemical exposure from industry, and protecting communities from the toxic toll of mass pesticide use. If approved, the plan’s voluntary nature, combined with history, suggests an uphill battle: the world has not met a single UN biodiversity goal since talks began in Nairobi over 30 years ago. Sweeping New Global Biodiversity Deal Sets Out Plan for Sharing Gene Sequences The health focus at the UN biodiversity summit reflects a broader shift in environmental diplomacy, marked by the first-ever Health Day at UN climate talks (COP28) in Dubai last year. While biodiversity has long been valued for medical discoveries — nearly half of all pharmaceuticals in use today are originally derived from nature — scientists increasingly see ecosystem protection as vital for preventing disease outbreaks, controlling disease vectors, and limiting chemical exposure. Biodiversity loss and climate change have emerged as the leading drivers of infectious diseases worldwide, amplifying 58% of outbreaks. The mounting threat is forcing policymakers to reckon with an increasingly inescapable truth: human survival depends entirely on Earth’s life-sustaining systems — clean water, air, and food. “Framing biodiversity as a resource – something separate, something that gives – has led to humanity converting nature, driving species to extinction, polluting ecosystems and pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” Andersen said. “But humanity is not separate from or above biodiversity. And in a closed system such as Earth, what goes around comes around.” Deep divisions over superbug prevention and drug development mirror COP16 tensions The Biodiversity-Health framework is one of the most contested documents being negotiated at COP16 in Cali, Colombia this week, according to Carbon Brief. The 24-page Biodiversity-Health framework is as one of the summit’s most contested documents, with 54 bracketed sections exposing fundamental disagreements between nations. The disputed clauses reflect wider fault lines in Cali. Nations remain divided over whether to classify improperly disposed antibiotic waste – a key driver of antimicrobial resistance – as “pollution” alongside microplastics and heavy metals. Proposals to “avoid the inappropriate use and disposal” of antibiotics are also unsettled, despite safe disposal practices being critical to preserving the efficacy drugs that save hundreds of millions of lives annually. The sharing of benefits from genetic resources is another flashpoint. Developing nations demand strong commitments on technology transfer, while wealthy countries insist such transfers must remain “voluntary.” Nations with major pharmaceutical industries have pushed also back against draft language that would hold companies accountable for “the misappropriation of genetic resources and digital sequence information and associated traditional knowledge. A crucial sticking point centres on whether to include “derivatives” and “subsequent applications and commercialisation” – essentially determining if companies must share benefits when they develop new products based on initial discoveries. Without such provisions, firms could potentially avoid sharing profits from derivative drugs or applications. Finance – the dominant issue of COP16’s opening week – is another key battleground in the health framework. Nations have yet to approve clauses that would provide financial support to developing countries, which host most of the world’s biodiversity, for implementing plans to protect it. Of the few plans submitted, most consider health Of 35 submitted biodiversity plans, Western Europe leads with 13, followed by Asia-Pacific with 10, while Africa filed 5, Latin America 4, and Eastern Europe 3, according to the COP16 database. National biodiversity plans submitted before this week’s summit in Colombia summit reveal wide variations in scope and specificity for how countries intend to tackle environmental protection and human health concerns, a Health Policy Watch analysis of the COP16 database found. Only 35 nations – just 18% – submitted biodiversity strategies, known as NBSAPs in UN jargon, by Monday’s UN summit deadline. All but Mexico and Jordan included human health concerns in their plans. The submitted plans reflect clear regional priorities. European Union members emphasize a comprehensive “one health” approach that links human, animal and environmental welfare, focusing heavily on pesticide and chemical pollution regulation – areas where the EU leads global policy. Colombia’s strategy takes a different focus, centering on health impacts from extractive industries, particularly mercury contamination from mining. In contrast, China and South Korea’s plans barely mention health, making single references to urban green spaces’ benefits for respiratory and mental health. These varied approaches come as research increasingly links ecosystem destruction to public health crises, from floods to disease outbreaks. Scientists have documented two virus spillovers to humans annually over the past century, culminating in the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Health Organization projects climate change could cause 250,000 additional deaths yearly between 2030-2050. Antimicrobial resistance already claims 1.4 million lives annually, while environmental degradation could cause 39 million deaths from 2025-2050. The proposed health framework, though voluntary, would set higher standards than current national plans. “From the air we breathe to the water we drink, our health is tied to the health of the planet,” said UN Environment chief Andersen. “We need a plan to protect biodiversity for the health of all species on earth.” Critical regions and powers missing from submissions While most nations haven’t submitted biodiversity plans required by the Montreal deal, officials say the two-year timeline was ambitious given ecosystem complexity, especially in regions like the Amazon. Of the 17 nations hosting 70% of Earth’s biodiversity, only five have filed plans: Australia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Mexico. The crucial Amazon region is represented solely by Suriname, with no submissions from Congo Basin nations. The G7 economic powers showed limited participation, with only Canada, Italy, France and Japan meeting the deadline. Among G20 members, Brazil indicated it needs more time to develop its long-term conservation strategy, while India plans to announce its commitments during the summit. “The start was never going to be fast. I think the important thing we’re looking at is the work is underway,” UN biodiversity chief Astrid Schomaker told Carbon Brief about the limited submissions. “Whether the deadline itself is met on the dot is not what I think we’re really looking at,” Schomaker said, adding she is “confident” this work is taking place globally. “I think our assessment is globally positive.” Biodiversity and health deal advances, but key framework still faces hurdles Negotiations on biodiversity and health took a step forward on Sunday as the second working group’s chair presented a draft decision – a document separate from but related to the broader biodiversity and health action plan. While the draft includes a provision to adopt the action plan, this remains in brackets, indicating no consensus has yet been reached among member states. The draft makes several key advances, eliminating previous disputes over antimicrobial disposal protocols and removing qualifiers that made technology sharing optional. It also strengthens provisions for Indigenous peoples’ participation in global biodiversity initiatives and decision-making forums. However, several contentious issues from the main biodiversity framework remain unresolved. These include questions of pharmaceutical companies’ liability regarding genetic resource usage and digital sequence information, whether derivatives and commercial applications should be included in fair and equitable benefit-sharing arrangements, and the creation of international oversight mechanisms to ensure countries meet their biodiversity and health commitments. Finance remains a critical hurdle in the health and broader COP16 negotiations. While eight nations boosted the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund this week with pledges totaling $163m, bringing available funding to $400m, this falls dramatically short of global needs. The Kunming-Montreal agreement calls for $200bn annually for nature protection – 500 times the current fund’s total, which isn’t even structured as yearly financing. Though there is broad agreement on the principle of financial support from development banks and environmental funds, the mechanisms for distribution remain hotly contested. As with previous UN environmental negotiations, talks may extend beyond the official Friday deadline as delegates work to bridge these remaining gaps. This article was updated to reflect progress in the negotiations Image Credits: CIFOR-ICRAF. Egyptians Still Face Barriers to Insulin Access, Despite Promises of Expanded Domestic Production 25/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy A view point in Minya Governorate. Nearly 11 million Egyptians live with diabetes, where insulin access is increasingly out of reach for those in rural areas. MINYA GOVERNORATE, EGYPT – Nine-year-old Adam needs an insulin shot before meals, and seems unphased when his father checks his sugar levels with a finger pricking. He looks away when a small blood drop wells on the tip of his finger. Adam turns back to his plate of rice and stewed vegetables, continuing to ramble about the kids in his summer camp. Both Adam and his father are diabetic in a rural village in Upper Egypt, where their struggle to access insulin mirrors a broader struggle across the country, and the continent. In a country where over 18% of adults live with diabetes, and with the number of adults living with diabetes expected to hit 20 million by 2045, diagnosis, monitoring, and medication are all difficult to come by. In response, Egypt is now taking significant steps to expand insulin access and diabetes prevention–in the context of rising prevalence. But financial and logistic barriers as well as competing political priorities still leave rural families at the ‘last mile’ of service in a precarious situation. New diagnostics more widely available – but shortages, power cuts, and inflation threaten access Moussa, with his son Adam, shows a continuous glucose monitor in their home in Upper Egypt. To address the growing health and financial burden of the disease, the Egyptian National Health Insurance system recently began to cover the initial cost of a glucometer for newly diagnosed people as well as 25 test strips per month. Yet while over-the-counter glucose monitoring ads flood US airwaves for non-diabetic consumers, many Egyptians, like people in other developing world countries, still struggle to obtain such basic devices for diabetes control. Diabetes care coverage remains below 50 percent for low- and middle-income countries, according to a Lancet estimate. Many or most low-income and informal Egyptian laborers simply don’t have health insurance while their income are not enough to afford their monthly diabetes supplies, notes T1 International, a non-profit diabetes care advocacy group: “It can cost someone more than 50% of their salary to get the basic diabetes supplies,” said Dr Mohamed Shabeen in a T1 article. Moussa’s stash of insulin pens and glucose monitors for the village. Paying for test strips, monitors, and insulin are just one part of the country’s $3 billion diabetes-related annual health expenditure. The International Diabetes Federation estimates this number will rise to $4.5 billion by 2045, a concern given Egypt’s rising national debt and economic woes – with the Egyptian pound devalued by more than 50 percent and food inflation over 60 percent. There are also indirect costs for diabetics. For instance, Adam’s parents enrolled him in a pricier private school, over fears that in the overcrowded public schools, Adam could go into insulin shock unnoticed. “I was worried he would go into a ketone coma (ketoacidosis),” said Moussa, Adam’s father, and English teacher who is one of the few-college educated people in his village of some 2,000 people. “I became diabetic in 2018, Adam in 2019. I noticed a lot of the same symptoms. “When he was diagnosed, I did so much research. I had to learn about the condition because there is so little information for people with diabetes.” Moussa ended up buying a Freestyle Libre glucose monitoring system so Adam could attend school uninterrupted, but it soon became too expensive “and we’re facing a shortage.” Villages, in Minya Governorate, like Moussa’s, struggle with affording insulin – and keeping it refrigerated during power outages. There are several other people living with diabetes in his village, Moussa explained, and they have formed a network, providing each other with valuable social support. “We have a WhatsApp group. If someone has extra medication, they give it to me and then I distribute it to others that need it.” The summer, however, was especially challenging as 40 ℃ temperatures were accompanied by prolonged power cuts, threatening insulin refrigeration. Diabetes ascendant – 11 million and climbing Diabetes treatment coverage remains below 50% across a variety of metrics in low- and middle-income countries. In WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, which includes most of the Middle East and North Africa, one in six adults now live with diabetes, making it the region with the highest prevalence at 16.2% and the second highest expected increase (86%) in the number of people with diabetes.The region also has the highest percentage (24.5%) of diabetes-related deaths in people of working age. In Egypt, the country is now one of many facing a double burden of malnutrition (DBM)–where 21% of children under five are stunted yet over half of children and adolescents are overweight or obese. The country’s rapidly rising rates of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) like diabetes, heart disease, and chronic respiratory diseases means that NCDs account for 82% of all deaths in Egypt and 67% of premature deaths. Public health experts point to the region’s lifestyle changes – a diet heavy in sugar and carbohydrates, lack of exercise, and other risk factors – as fueling the rise in NCDs. New domestic insulin production in limbo A view of the village in Minya Governorate, where the growing prevalence of diabetes threatens the village’s well being. In terms of treatment, there is little local insulin manufacturing in Egypt as well as the rest of Africa, leaving people to depend on expensive, important supplies. Several big initiatives have recently been announced to change that. But their status remains unclear. In May, 2023, Eli Lilly announced a major new partnership with the Egypt-based pharmaceutical company EVA Pharma to provide the company with the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) of insulin at a “significantly reduced price.” Just last month, EVA Pharma’s CEO Dr Riad Armanious declared in a press release that “locally manufactured insulin is currently a top priority, aiming for local supply and exporting it to more than 60 countries.” However, actual rollout of the plan still appears to be in limbo, with neither company responding when asked for comment by Health Policy Watch about the status of the new manufacturing plans. That, despite an August statement by Egypt’s Minister of Health and Population Khaled Abdel Ghaffar told press that the insulin shortage “would be over within three months” and that the country would produce a million more insulin vials a month, in coming months. He blamed a foreign currency shortage for the holdup in importation of critical raw ingredients needed to expand production, but “that the problem had been solved.” Egypt is home to some 170 pharmaceutical factories – and state-owned companies already produce as much as 15 million vials yearly – but much of this also reportedly goes to export. This leaves Egyptians, who need some 27 million vials a year, in an even greater bind. Additionally, observers in the field say privately that the local products are not yet as of good quality as imported ones – something that the partnership between Eli Lilly and Eva should help address. WHO – no further details on the rollout of manufacturing Dr Loyce Pace, with WHO’s Dr Bente Mikkelsen, Africa CDC’s Dr Jean Kaseya and EVA Pharma CEO Riad Armanious at the EVA-Lilly partnership announcement last year. Asked for comment, the World Health Organization also was unable to offer further updates on a timeline for Egypt’s rollout of its much-touted expanded insulin production. WHO is not a direct partner in the Eli Lilly-Eva partnership, but it has been “actively engaging with various stakeholders, including the private sector, to fulfill commitments made in the UN Political Declaration on NCDs,” said Dr Bente Mikkelsen Director, just prior to her retirement on 1 October as head of WHO’s Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, Rehabilitation and Disability (NCD). “Several companies have responded positively to these ‘asks’, including commitments to local manufacturing,” she added, in a comment to Health Policy Watch. Meanwhile, in Minya Governorate, Moussa has been traveling more frequently to Cairo some four hours away by car “to get good healthcare” – after monitoring Adam’s symptoms, as well as his own, and their similarities. But he still hopes that he and others in his community can eventually get quality insulin and glucose monitors at a fairer price locally. “Right now, I’m getting them from Cairo, and we have to pay taxes and customs. It would be great for all these people in our community to be able to afford this as well.” Image Credits: S. Samantaroy/HPW, The Lancet. Another Rwandan Health Worker Gets Marburg, While Cases of Children Co-infected with Mpox and Measles Rise 24/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Dr Ngashi Ngongo (Africa CDC) and Dr Jean-Marie Yameogo (WHO), the continental co-leads on mpox. Rwanda has recorded its 63rd Marburg case, while cases of children coinfected with both mpox and measles are rising in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) weekly media briefing on Thursday. After 10 days of no new cases, a health worker who has been caring for Marburg patients tested positive for the virus on Wednesday night, Rwandan Health Minister Dr Sabin Nsanzimana told the briefing. But the health worker was vaccinated a few days ago and is “doing well” with disease presentation that was “not usual”, Nsanzimana added. “The good thing is that the person has been in a treatment centre and has no contacts outside the centre,” he added. Meanwhile, the source of the Marburg outbreak has been traced to fruit bats in a cave where the index case had been mining, said Nsanzimana. Once this had been confirmed, all human activity at the cave had been stopped and the government is following up on the people working there, to make sure they they don’t develop the disease, he added. Genome sequencing of the virus confirmed that it was both very close to the zoonotic source – the virus in the bats – and to other Marburg cases imported into the country. This underscored the importance of a One Health approach involving experts on human and animal health and the environment, said Nsanzimana. Mpox testing slowly improving Some 2,729 new mpox cases were reported in the past week – over 90% of which in DRC and Burundi, although Liberia, Kenya and Uganda reported new cases, according to Dr Ngashi Ngongo, Africa CDC’s lead on mpox. There has been an increase in mpox patients under the age of 15 being co-infected with measles in the DRC, particularly in Nord Kivu and Sud Kivu – but it is unclear whether one disease made children susceptible to the other. Little more than half the children in these areas have been vaccinated against measles and there is also a high malnutrition rate, which weakens the children’s immune systems, said Ngongo. “We haven’t yet established if the fact that you get measles, then increase your chances of getting mpox and vice versa,” he added. The DRC’s vaccination campaign underway in six provinces, was generally going well with over 39,000 people vaccinated. Nigeria plans to launch its vaccination campaign on 29 October. “We have 5.6 million doses of mpox vaccines that have been confirmed, of which 2.5 million are MVA-BN and three million of the LC16 from Japan,” said Ngongo. Close to 900,000 doses of MVA-BN are available this month October, with another 700,000 potentially available in November, which he described as being “enough, at least, for the moment, to cover the plans that we have received”. However, getting vaccines for children remains a challenge although World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the MVA-BN can be used “off label” for children at risk. After weeks of struggling to increase testing, there had been a 37% increase in tests in the past week – and a big jump in test positivity from 36.5% to 63%. This can be attributed to training on sample management, PCR and Gene Xpert testing, more sequencing equipment, as well as the distribution of more Gene Xperts cartridges (to run the machines), and PCR tests being set to affected countries. No new cases have been recorded in Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, Rwanda and South Africa in the past four weeks. However, surveillance has been a huge challenge, said Ngongo. Only four of the 18 affected countries had reached contact tracing targets of 10 per patient. Meanwhile, the Robert Koch Institute in Germany reported the country’s first case of mpox Clade 1b. The patient recently traveled out of the country, but it not clear where he been. Outside of Africa, Sweden and Thailand have also each reported a case of mpox 1b, the more virulent version of the . World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action 24/10/2024 Stefan Anderson No policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented worldwide in 2023. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain catastrophically off track, with current policies putting the world on course for a 3.1°C temperature rise by century’s end, the UN Environment Programme warned Thursday in its annual “Emissions Gap” report. To keep the 1.5°C target alive, nations must slash emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 – yet emissions continue to climb, hitting record highs last year. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters at the report’s launch. “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly intense climate disasters worldwide,” Guterres said. “People are paying a terrible price.” Despite a year marked by devastating hurricanes, droughts and floods, no country implemented policies “with significant implications for global emissions in 2023,” UNEP found. “Another year has passed without action, and that means we’re worse off,” said Ann Olhoff, the report’s lead scientific editor. “The findings are fairly similar to last year, apart from emissions still going up.” Twenty-nine years after international climate talks began, the sum total of global climate pledges – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would allow temperatures to rise by a “catastrophic” 2.6°C, even if fully implemented, according to the report. Most major economies, including many G20 nations, are failing to meet even these insufficient commitments – let alone achieve the 42% emissions cuts needed. By mid-century, current trajectories point to warming well above 1.5°C, with up to a one-in-three chance of exceeding 2°C. The report warns that warming is expected to intensify beyond 2100, as CO2 emissions are not projected to reach net zero under existing scenarios. Each year of delay makes the task harder: Global emissions must now fall 7.5% every year until 2035 to keep warming to 1.5 C. For a 2 C limit, yearly cuts of 4% are needed. “If we procrastinate, that figure will obviously grow with every year of inaction,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “Nations must show a massive increase in ambition in these new NDCs, accompanied by rapid delivery, or the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C will be dead within a few years.” With nations due to update their climate pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year, UNEP says this represents a make-or-break moment. The new commitments must deliver what the agency calls a “quantum leap” to avoid planetary catastrophe. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era,” Andersen said. “We may not make it. But the only certain path to failure is not trying.” Going backwards The Emissions Gap remains unchanged since UNEP issued the last edition of its annual report last year. In a year that demanded cuts, emissions instead rose 1.3% to record levels in 2023, with coal accounting for 65% of the increase, according to the International Energy Agency. While record deployments of renewable energy, nuclear power and electric vehicles helped curb emissions growth, they couldn’t keep pace with rising energy demand and the impact of severe droughts on hydropower generation. Without this rapid expansion of clean technologies, emissions growth would have been three times higher, according to IEA data. Only one pathway identified in the report halts warming beyond 2100: All 107 countries with net-zero pledges must deliver on their promises and quickly put their plans into action. This could cap warming at 1.9°C, but UNEP has “low” confidence countries will follow through. Countries accounting for 82% of global emissions have made net-zero promises, but progress has stalled. “Current policies, conditional NDCs, unconditional NDCs – in any of these scenarios, whether emissions peak and fall a small amount or plateau, all of them represent a lost decade,” said Neil Grant, a lead author of the report. “Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change.” G20 nations must ‘do the heavy lifting’ Just six countries accounted for 63% of global emissions in 2023, with the least developed nations contributing only 3%, highlighting particular concerns about inaction among major emitters, especially the G20. “We identified very few newly adopted policies [by G20 nations] underpinned by quantitative assessments that deliver considerable emission reduction impact by 2030 or beyond. This is very worrying,” said Takeshi Kuramochi, lead author of the G20 section of the report. “It’s been a calm past 12 months, in a negative way.” Seven G20 members – China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey – have not yet reached peak emissions, a pre-requisite to achieving net zero. For G20 nations that have peaked, including the US, EU, Russia and Canada, “their rate of decarbonization would need to accelerate – in some cases dramatically – after 2030 to achieve their net-zero goals unless they accelerate action now,” UNEP found. “We must remember that 1.5°C is not an on-off switch that will plunge the world into an era of darkness and chaos,” Andersen said. “We are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved.” “The G20, particularly the members that dominate emissions, need to do the heavy lifting,” Andersen added. “Climate crunch time is here.” ‘Wartime’ mobilization is required to keep 1.5C alive While there is “no chance” of limiting global warming to 1.5C under current policies, UNEP insists the target remains “technically possible” – but only through “immediate global mobilization on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” A sweeping transformation of energy, transport, and land use could cut 31 gigatonnes of CO2 annually – equivalent to 52% of global emissions – through existing technologies costing less than $200 per ton of carbon, UNEP estimates. Solar and wind energy alone could deliver 27% of required emissions cuts by 2030, rising to 38% by 2035, while forest protection and restoration could contribute another 20%. Together, these measures would deliver the steep emissions cuts scientists say are needed to keep 1.5C alive. “Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar power and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors,” Andersen said. “This is a gargantuan task that requires global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. But it does, for the moment, remain technically possible.” The price tag for this transformation is steep but achievable, according to UNEP. Annual investment in mitigation measures must increase six-fold to 11.7$ trillion per year by 2035 – approximately 10% of the global economy. “These investments don’t even take all the benefits into account and the avoided damages,” Olhoff said. “It would be very costly not to invest in a green transition.” This is a developing story and will be updated. Image Credits: Joanne Francis. 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Global Emissions Set to Fall 2.6% by 2030 – 40% Short of Paris Agreement Target 28/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Climate plans ‘miles short’ of averting catastrophe, UN climate chief warns ahead of COP29. Global climate plans will cut emissions by just 2.6% by 2030, falling 40% short of what’s needed to keep a future within the Paris agreement’s 1.5C goal alive, according to a report released Monday by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The combined emissions cut by the national climate plans, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), have increased by a mere 0.6% since last year, an insignificant change that will not affect global warming trajectories, the UN climate body said in its annual assessment ahead of next month’s COP29 summit in Baku. “Current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country, said Simon Stiell, UNFCCC’s executive secretary. “Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception.” As countries prepare to update their climate pledges ahead of next year’s COP30 in Brazil, time is running out to take the existential scale of the threat seriously. Since COP28, where countries adopted the UAE consensus reaffirming the 1.5ºC target established in 2015, only one nation has submitted updated climate plans under the treaty framework. World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action The UNFCCC’s dire assessment mirrors findings released last week by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), which reported that no policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented globally in 2023, putting the world on course for “catastrophic” warming of 3.1ºC by the end of the century. UNEP maintains that the 1.5ºC target – which its director called “one of the greatest asks of the modern era” – remains “technically possible” if there is “immediate global mobilisation on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” With global emissions set to exceed 1.5ºC of warming by 2050 – and a one-in-three chance of breaking 2ºC – UNEP’s chief called for a “quantum leap” in climate policy. Stiell echoed this urgency, demanding an immediate end to the “era of inadequacy” — and for “a new age of acceleration” to begin at next month’s COP29. “The last generation of NDCs set the signal for unstoppable change,” Stiell said. “New NDCs next year must outline a clear path to make it happen – by scaling up renewable energy, strengthening adaptation and accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies everywhere.” The latest warning shot Carbon dioxide is building up in Earth’s atmosphere at rates never before seen in human history, WMO reported Monday. With COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, just weeks away, a raft of new climate research has reinforced the alarm bells set off by the UNFCCC’s findings. Planet-warming greenhouse gases surged to record highs in 2023, reaching levels unprecedented in human history, new data released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) revealed on Monday. The UN weather agency found carbon dioxide concentrations rose more than 10% in the past decade, while methane and nitrous oxide, short-lived but powerful greenhouse gases, also saw significant increases. Carbon dioxide levels are now 51% higher than in pre-industrial times, when humans began burning fossil fuels at scale, while methane levels have risen 161% and nitrous oxide 25% over the same period, locking Earth’s atmosphere into a warming trajectory for at least the lifecycle of these gases. “Another year. Another record,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo. “These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.” “This should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers,” Saulo said. Carbon dioxide is accumulating “faster than any time experienced during human existence” due to “stubbornly high fossil fuel” emissions, widespread forest fires, and a likely reduction in the ability of natural carbon sinks — such as oceans and forests — to absorb CO2, WMO said. The 2023 increase of 2.3 parts per million marked the 12th straight year of rises above 2ppm – a rate of increase that would have taken centuries to occur naturally before industrialization. “The record levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere are the logical outcome of the record amounts of greenhouse gases that our economies continue to dump into our ambient air,” Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and lead author of the report, told the Guardian. “This doesn’t need to be the end of the story.” Earth’s systems near breaking point The WMO report raises fresh alarms about nature’s carbon sinks — oceans, forests, plants and soil that absorb carbon dioxide — and it isn’t alone. Earlier this month, international researchers released preliminary findings indicating forests, plants and soil absorbed almost no net carbon in 2023, suggesting they could be nearing a tipping point. These natural buffers, long taken for granted in climate models, may be failing. Earth’s natural carbon sinks absorb nearly 50% of our carbon emissions, and their collapse could be catastrophic and rapidly accelerate global warming beyond current worst-case scenario projections. “We see a sudden drop of the land carbon sinks from extreme warming and Amazon mega-drought,” said Philippe Ciais, one of the report’s lead authors. “If this decline continues, we may see a rapid acceleration of CO2 and global warming which was unforeseen in future climate models’ projections.” Collapse of Atlantic current Meanwhile, 40 of the world’s leading experts on ocean and climate science penned an urgent open letter presented at the Arctic Circle conference in Iceland last week warning that the risk of collapse of a vital Atlantic current system, known as the AMOC, has been “greatly underestimated.” The collapse of this system, one of the planet’s largest arteries transporting heat around the world’s oceans, would have “potentially catastrophic consequences” and trigger “devastating and irreversible climate impacts,” the letter warned. The worst impacts would be felt in Nordic countries and “potentially threaten the viability of agriculture in northwestern Europe,” while global impacts would include reduced CO2 absorption by oceans, major sea-level rise, and a shift in tropical rainforest belts, meaning rains would no longer fall on the forests they keep alive – triggering droughts above rainforests vital to absorbing CO2 – and flood the new regions they settle over. “This has happened repeatedly in Earth’s history, most recently during the last ice age,” Stefan Rahmstorf, a signatory of the open letter and head of the Earth system analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said in an interview with the Guardian. “These are among the most massive upheavals of climate conditions in Earth’s history,” Rahmstorf said. “I am now very concerned that we may push Amoc over this tipping point in the next decades. If you ask me my gut feeling, I would say the risk that we cross the tipping point this century is about 50/50.” “We don’t know where the tipping point is.” Image Credits: RecondOil. Nations Deadlocked Over Health-Biodiversity Framework at COP16 26/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Negotiations continue on health provisions in biodiversity plans as the UN summit in Cali reaches its midpoint. Only 35 countries have submitted the national strategies required by the UN biodiversity treaty showing how they’ll meet its binding nature protection targets. While 33 of these plans recognise links between human health and biodiversity, they offer few specifics on implementation and policy, a Health Policy Watch analysis found. Negotiators in Cali aim to bridge the gap this week by adopting a global health action plan under the treaty that provides a roadmap for meeting its health protection requirements. Midway through the UN biodiversity summit COP16 in Cali, Colombia, delegates from nearly 200 countries remain deadlocked over rules to protect human health from Earth’s mounting ecological crisis. UN Environment chief Inger Andersen urged delegates Thursday to break the impasse over the Global Action Plan on Biodiversity and Health, which would align conservation efforts with human health priorities as nations wrestle with implementing the landmark 2022 Montreal biodiversity treaty. “Our health cannot be separated from the health of the planet and its many species,” she told delegates in Cali. “We must adopt this action plan and implement it with a holistic, systemic approach that unifies action across health, environment, finance, industry and agriculture.” Over the weekend Biodiversity deal seeks health rules – but keeps them voluntary The world agreed to protect nature in Montreal two years ago. Now in Cali, countries must figure out how. The proposed framework would strengthen the 2022 Kunming-Montreal biodiversity agreement – nature’s equivalent to the Paris Climate Accord – which committed 197 nations to protect 30% of Earth’s land and seas by 2030, but left crucial health provisions largely undefined. While the Convention on Biodiversity itself is legally binding, the proposed health framework would serve as a voluntary roadmap for nations. It calls for health impact assessments in land-use planning, disease surveillance where habitat loss is rapid, and stricter wildlife trade rules — measures experts say are vital to prevent pathogens spreading from wild animals to human communities and food markets. The framework also emphasises protecting genetic resources crucial for new medicine development and ensuring vulnerable populations have access to nature’s health benefits. The push comes amid controversy at the UN biodiversity summit over countries’ rights to demand “benefit sharing” when genetic resources, including digital sequences, are used in drug development — a fight at the frontiers of biodiversity science that nearly derailed the landmark 2022 Montreal agreement. Beyond the fight over genetic resources, nations broadly agree on the framework’s other targets: combating vector-borne diseases emerging from shrinking habitats, reducing chemical exposure from industry, and protecting communities from the toxic toll of mass pesticide use. If approved, the plan’s voluntary nature, combined with history, suggests an uphill battle: the world has not met a single UN biodiversity goal since talks began in Nairobi over 30 years ago. Sweeping New Global Biodiversity Deal Sets Out Plan for Sharing Gene Sequences The health focus at the UN biodiversity summit reflects a broader shift in environmental diplomacy, marked by the first-ever Health Day at UN climate talks (COP28) in Dubai last year. While biodiversity has long been valued for medical discoveries — nearly half of all pharmaceuticals in use today are originally derived from nature — scientists increasingly see ecosystem protection as vital for preventing disease outbreaks, controlling disease vectors, and limiting chemical exposure. Biodiversity loss and climate change have emerged as the leading drivers of infectious diseases worldwide, amplifying 58% of outbreaks. The mounting threat is forcing policymakers to reckon with an increasingly inescapable truth: human survival depends entirely on Earth’s life-sustaining systems — clean water, air, and food. “Framing biodiversity as a resource – something separate, something that gives – has led to humanity converting nature, driving species to extinction, polluting ecosystems and pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” Andersen said. “But humanity is not separate from or above biodiversity. And in a closed system such as Earth, what goes around comes around.” Deep divisions over superbug prevention and drug development mirror COP16 tensions The Biodiversity-Health framework is one of the most contested documents being negotiated at COP16 in Cali, Colombia this week, according to Carbon Brief. The 24-page Biodiversity-Health framework is as one of the summit’s most contested documents, with 54 bracketed sections exposing fundamental disagreements between nations. The disputed clauses reflect wider fault lines in Cali. Nations remain divided over whether to classify improperly disposed antibiotic waste – a key driver of antimicrobial resistance – as “pollution” alongside microplastics and heavy metals. Proposals to “avoid the inappropriate use and disposal” of antibiotics are also unsettled, despite safe disposal practices being critical to preserving the efficacy drugs that save hundreds of millions of lives annually. The sharing of benefits from genetic resources is another flashpoint. Developing nations demand strong commitments on technology transfer, while wealthy countries insist such transfers must remain “voluntary.” Nations with major pharmaceutical industries have pushed also back against draft language that would hold companies accountable for “the misappropriation of genetic resources and digital sequence information and associated traditional knowledge. A crucial sticking point centres on whether to include “derivatives” and “subsequent applications and commercialisation” – essentially determining if companies must share benefits when they develop new products based on initial discoveries. Without such provisions, firms could potentially avoid sharing profits from derivative drugs or applications. Finance – the dominant issue of COP16’s opening week – is another key battleground in the health framework. Nations have yet to approve clauses that would provide financial support to developing countries, which host most of the world’s biodiversity, for implementing plans to protect it. Of the few plans submitted, most consider health Of 35 submitted biodiversity plans, Western Europe leads with 13, followed by Asia-Pacific with 10, while Africa filed 5, Latin America 4, and Eastern Europe 3, according to the COP16 database. National biodiversity plans submitted before this week’s summit in Colombia summit reveal wide variations in scope and specificity for how countries intend to tackle environmental protection and human health concerns, a Health Policy Watch analysis of the COP16 database found. Only 35 nations – just 18% – submitted biodiversity strategies, known as NBSAPs in UN jargon, by Monday’s UN summit deadline. All but Mexico and Jordan included human health concerns in their plans. The submitted plans reflect clear regional priorities. European Union members emphasize a comprehensive “one health” approach that links human, animal and environmental welfare, focusing heavily on pesticide and chemical pollution regulation – areas where the EU leads global policy. Colombia’s strategy takes a different focus, centering on health impacts from extractive industries, particularly mercury contamination from mining. In contrast, China and South Korea’s plans barely mention health, making single references to urban green spaces’ benefits for respiratory and mental health. These varied approaches come as research increasingly links ecosystem destruction to public health crises, from floods to disease outbreaks. Scientists have documented two virus spillovers to humans annually over the past century, culminating in the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Health Organization projects climate change could cause 250,000 additional deaths yearly between 2030-2050. Antimicrobial resistance already claims 1.4 million lives annually, while environmental degradation could cause 39 million deaths from 2025-2050. The proposed health framework, though voluntary, would set higher standards than current national plans. “From the air we breathe to the water we drink, our health is tied to the health of the planet,” said UN Environment chief Andersen. “We need a plan to protect biodiversity for the health of all species on earth.” Critical regions and powers missing from submissions While most nations haven’t submitted biodiversity plans required by the Montreal deal, officials say the two-year timeline was ambitious given ecosystem complexity, especially in regions like the Amazon. Of the 17 nations hosting 70% of Earth’s biodiversity, only five have filed plans: Australia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Mexico. The crucial Amazon region is represented solely by Suriname, with no submissions from Congo Basin nations. The G7 economic powers showed limited participation, with only Canada, Italy, France and Japan meeting the deadline. Among G20 members, Brazil indicated it needs more time to develop its long-term conservation strategy, while India plans to announce its commitments during the summit. “The start was never going to be fast. I think the important thing we’re looking at is the work is underway,” UN biodiversity chief Astrid Schomaker told Carbon Brief about the limited submissions. “Whether the deadline itself is met on the dot is not what I think we’re really looking at,” Schomaker said, adding she is “confident” this work is taking place globally. “I think our assessment is globally positive.” Biodiversity and health deal advances, but key framework still faces hurdles Negotiations on biodiversity and health took a step forward on Sunday as the second working group’s chair presented a draft decision – a document separate from but related to the broader biodiversity and health action plan. While the draft includes a provision to adopt the action plan, this remains in brackets, indicating no consensus has yet been reached among member states. The draft makes several key advances, eliminating previous disputes over antimicrobial disposal protocols and removing qualifiers that made technology sharing optional. It also strengthens provisions for Indigenous peoples’ participation in global biodiversity initiatives and decision-making forums. However, several contentious issues from the main biodiversity framework remain unresolved. These include questions of pharmaceutical companies’ liability regarding genetic resource usage and digital sequence information, whether derivatives and commercial applications should be included in fair and equitable benefit-sharing arrangements, and the creation of international oversight mechanisms to ensure countries meet their biodiversity and health commitments. Finance remains a critical hurdle in the health and broader COP16 negotiations. While eight nations boosted the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund this week with pledges totaling $163m, bringing available funding to $400m, this falls dramatically short of global needs. The Kunming-Montreal agreement calls for $200bn annually for nature protection – 500 times the current fund’s total, which isn’t even structured as yearly financing. Though there is broad agreement on the principle of financial support from development banks and environmental funds, the mechanisms for distribution remain hotly contested. As with previous UN environmental negotiations, talks may extend beyond the official Friday deadline as delegates work to bridge these remaining gaps. This article was updated to reflect progress in the negotiations Image Credits: CIFOR-ICRAF. Egyptians Still Face Barriers to Insulin Access, Despite Promises of Expanded Domestic Production 25/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy A view point in Minya Governorate. Nearly 11 million Egyptians live with diabetes, where insulin access is increasingly out of reach for those in rural areas. MINYA GOVERNORATE, EGYPT – Nine-year-old Adam needs an insulin shot before meals, and seems unphased when his father checks his sugar levels with a finger pricking. He looks away when a small blood drop wells on the tip of his finger. Adam turns back to his plate of rice and stewed vegetables, continuing to ramble about the kids in his summer camp. Both Adam and his father are diabetic in a rural village in Upper Egypt, where their struggle to access insulin mirrors a broader struggle across the country, and the continent. In a country where over 18% of adults live with diabetes, and with the number of adults living with diabetes expected to hit 20 million by 2045, diagnosis, monitoring, and medication are all difficult to come by. In response, Egypt is now taking significant steps to expand insulin access and diabetes prevention–in the context of rising prevalence. But financial and logistic barriers as well as competing political priorities still leave rural families at the ‘last mile’ of service in a precarious situation. New diagnostics more widely available – but shortages, power cuts, and inflation threaten access Moussa, with his son Adam, shows a continuous glucose monitor in their home in Upper Egypt. To address the growing health and financial burden of the disease, the Egyptian National Health Insurance system recently began to cover the initial cost of a glucometer for newly diagnosed people as well as 25 test strips per month. Yet while over-the-counter glucose monitoring ads flood US airwaves for non-diabetic consumers, many Egyptians, like people in other developing world countries, still struggle to obtain such basic devices for diabetes control. Diabetes care coverage remains below 50 percent for low- and middle-income countries, according to a Lancet estimate. Many or most low-income and informal Egyptian laborers simply don’t have health insurance while their income are not enough to afford their monthly diabetes supplies, notes T1 International, a non-profit diabetes care advocacy group: “It can cost someone more than 50% of their salary to get the basic diabetes supplies,” said Dr Mohamed Shabeen in a T1 article. Moussa’s stash of insulin pens and glucose monitors for the village. Paying for test strips, monitors, and insulin are just one part of the country’s $3 billion diabetes-related annual health expenditure. The International Diabetes Federation estimates this number will rise to $4.5 billion by 2045, a concern given Egypt’s rising national debt and economic woes – with the Egyptian pound devalued by more than 50 percent and food inflation over 60 percent. There are also indirect costs for diabetics. For instance, Adam’s parents enrolled him in a pricier private school, over fears that in the overcrowded public schools, Adam could go into insulin shock unnoticed. “I was worried he would go into a ketone coma (ketoacidosis),” said Moussa, Adam’s father, and English teacher who is one of the few-college educated people in his village of some 2,000 people. “I became diabetic in 2018, Adam in 2019. I noticed a lot of the same symptoms. “When he was diagnosed, I did so much research. I had to learn about the condition because there is so little information for people with diabetes.” Moussa ended up buying a Freestyle Libre glucose monitoring system so Adam could attend school uninterrupted, but it soon became too expensive “and we’re facing a shortage.” Villages, in Minya Governorate, like Moussa’s, struggle with affording insulin – and keeping it refrigerated during power outages. There are several other people living with diabetes in his village, Moussa explained, and they have formed a network, providing each other with valuable social support. “We have a WhatsApp group. If someone has extra medication, they give it to me and then I distribute it to others that need it.” The summer, however, was especially challenging as 40 ℃ temperatures were accompanied by prolonged power cuts, threatening insulin refrigeration. Diabetes ascendant – 11 million and climbing Diabetes treatment coverage remains below 50% across a variety of metrics in low- and middle-income countries. In WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, which includes most of the Middle East and North Africa, one in six adults now live with diabetes, making it the region with the highest prevalence at 16.2% and the second highest expected increase (86%) in the number of people with diabetes.The region also has the highest percentage (24.5%) of diabetes-related deaths in people of working age. In Egypt, the country is now one of many facing a double burden of malnutrition (DBM)–where 21% of children under five are stunted yet over half of children and adolescents are overweight or obese. The country’s rapidly rising rates of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) like diabetes, heart disease, and chronic respiratory diseases means that NCDs account for 82% of all deaths in Egypt and 67% of premature deaths. Public health experts point to the region’s lifestyle changes – a diet heavy in sugar and carbohydrates, lack of exercise, and other risk factors – as fueling the rise in NCDs. New domestic insulin production in limbo A view of the village in Minya Governorate, where the growing prevalence of diabetes threatens the village’s well being. In terms of treatment, there is little local insulin manufacturing in Egypt as well as the rest of Africa, leaving people to depend on expensive, important supplies. Several big initiatives have recently been announced to change that. But their status remains unclear. In May, 2023, Eli Lilly announced a major new partnership with the Egypt-based pharmaceutical company EVA Pharma to provide the company with the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) of insulin at a “significantly reduced price.” Just last month, EVA Pharma’s CEO Dr Riad Armanious declared in a press release that “locally manufactured insulin is currently a top priority, aiming for local supply and exporting it to more than 60 countries.” However, actual rollout of the plan still appears to be in limbo, with neither company responding when asked for comment by Health Policy Watch about the status of the new manufacturing plans. That, despite an August statement by Egypt’s Minister of Health and Population Khaled Abdel Ghaffar told press that the insulin shortage “would be over within three months” and that the country would produce a million more insulin vials a month, in coming months. He blamed a foreign currency shortage for the holdup in importation of critical raw ingredients needed to expand production, but “that the problem had been solved.” Egypt is home to some 170 pharmaceutical factories – and state-owned companies already produce as much as 15 million vials yearly – but much of this also reportedly goes to export. This leaves Egyptians, who need some 27 million vials a year, in an even greater bind. Additionally, observers in the field say privately that the local products are not yet as of good quality as imported ones – something that the partnership between Eli Lilly and Eva should help address. WHO – no further details on the rollout of manufacturing Dr Loyce Pace, with WHO’s Dr Bente Mikkelsen, Africa CDC’s Dr Jean Kaseya and EVA Pharma CEO Riad Armanious at the EVA-Lilly partnership announcement last year. Asked for comment, the World Health Organization also was unable to offer further updates on a timeline for Egypt’s rollout of its much-touted expanded insulin production. WHO is not a direct partner in the Eli Lilly-Eva partnership, but it has been “actively engaging with various stakeholders, including the private sector, to fulfill commitments made in the UN Political Declaration on NCDs,” said Dr Bente Mikkelsen Director, just prior to her retirement on 1 October as head of WHO’s Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, Rehabilitation and Disability (NCD). “Several companies have responded positively to these ‘asks’, including commitments to local manufacturing,” she added, in a comment to Health Policy Watch. Meanwhile, in Minya Governorate, Moussa has been traveling more frequently to Cairo some four hours away by car “to get good healthcare” – after monitoring Adam’s symptoms, as well as his own, and their similarities. But he still hopes that he and others in his community can eventually get quality insulin and glucose monitors at a fairer price locally. “Right now, I’m getting them from Cairo, and we have to pay taxes and customs. It would be great for all these people in our community to be able to afford this as well.” Image Credits: S. Samantaroy/HPW, The Lancet. Another Rwandan Health Worker Gets Marburg, While Cases of Children Co-infected with Mpox and Measles Rise 24/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Dr Ngashi Ngongo (Africa CDC) and Dr Jean-Marie Yameogo (WHO), the continental co-leads on mpox. Rwanda has recorded its 63rd Marburg case, while cases of children coinfected with both mpox and measles are rising in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) weekly media briefing on Thursday. After 10 days of no new cases, a health worker who has been caring for Marburg patients tested positive for the virus on Wednesday night, Rwandan Health Minister Dr Sabin Nsanzimana told the briefing. But the health worker was vaccinated a few days ago and is “doing well” with disease presentation that was “not usual”, Nsanzimana added. “The good thing is that the person has been in a treatment centre and has no contacts outside the centre,” he added. Meanwhile, the source of the Marburg outbreak has been traced to fruit bats in a cave where the index case had been mining, said Nsanzimana. Once this had been confirmed, all human activity at the cave had been stopped and the government is following up on the people working there, to make sure they they don’t develop the disease, he added. Genome sequencing of the virus confirmed that it was both very close to the zoonotic source – the virus in the bats – and to other Marburg cases imported into the country. This underscored the importance of a One Health approach involving experts on human and animal health and the environment, said Nsanzimana. Mpox testing slowly improving Some 2,729 new mpox cases were reported in the past week – over 90% of which in DRC and Burundi, although Liberia, Kenya and Uganda reported new cases, according to Dr Ngashi Ngongo, Africa CDC’s lead on mpox. There has been an increase in mpox patients under the age of 15 being co-infected with measles in the DRC, particularly in Nord Kivu and Sud Kivu – but it is unclear whether one disease made children susceptible to the other. Little more than half the children in these areas have been vaccinated against measles and there is also a high malnutrition rate, which weakens the children’s immune systems, said Ngongo. “We haven’t yet established if the fact that you get measles, then increase your chances of getting mpox and vice versa,” he added. The DRC’s vaccination campaign underway in six provinces, was generally going well with over 39,000 people vaccinated. Nigeria plans to launch its vaccination campaign on 29 October. “We have 5.6 million doses of mpox vaccines that have been confirmed, of which 2.5 million are MVA-BN and three million of the LC16 from Japan,” said Ngongo. Close to 900,000 doses of MVA-BN are available this month October, with another 700,000 potentially available in November, which he described as being “enough, at least, for the moment, to cover the plans that we have received”. However, getting vaccines for children remains a challenge although World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the MVA-BN can be used “off label” for children at risk. After weeks of struggling to increase testing, there had been a 37% increase in tests in the past week – and a big jump in test positivity from 36.5% to 63%. This can be attributed to training on sample management, PCR and Gene Xpert testing, more sequencing equipment, as well as the distribution of more Gene Xperts cartridges (to run the machines), and PCR tests being set to affected countries. No new cases have been recorded in Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, Rwanda and South Africa in the past four weeks. However, surveillance has been a huge challenge, said Ngongo. Only four of the 18 affected countries had reached contact tracing targets of 10 per patient. Meanwhile, the Robert Koch Institute in Germany reported the country’s first case of mpox Clade 1b. The patient recently traveled out of the country, but it not clear where he been. Outside of Africa, Sweden and Thailand have also each reported a case of mpox 1b, the more virulent version of the . World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action 24/10/2024 Stefan Anderson No policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented worldwide in 2023. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain catastrophically off track, with current policies putting the world on course for a 3.1°C temperature rise by century’s end, the UN Environment Programme warned Thursday in its annual “Emissions Gap” report. To keep the 1.5°C target alive, nations must slash emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 – yet emissions continue to climb, hitting record highs last year. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters at the report’s launch. “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly intense climate disasters worldwide,” Guterres said. “People are paying a terrible price.” Despite a year marked by devastating hurricanes, droughts and floods, no country implemented policies “with significant implications for global emissions in 2023,” UNEP found. “Another year has passed without action, and that means we’re worse off,” said Ann Olhoff, the report’s lead scientific editor. “The findings are fairly similar to last year, apart from emissions still going up.” Twenty-nine years after international climate talks began, the sum total of global climate pledges – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would allow temperatures to rise by a “catastrophic” 2.6°C, even if fully implemented, according to the report. Most major economies, including many G20 nations, are failing to meet even these insufficient commitments – let alone achieve the 42% emissions cuts needed. By mid-century, current trajectories point to warming well above 1.5°C, with up to a one-in-three chance of exceeding 2°C. The report warns that warming is expected to intensify beyond 2100, as CO2 emissions are not projected to reach net zero under existing scenarios. Each year of delay makes the task harder: Global emissions must now fall 7.5% every year until 2035 to keep warming to 1.5 C. For a 2 C limit, yearly cuts of 4% are needed. “If we procrastinate, that figure will obviously grow with every year of inaction,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “Nations must show a massive increase in ambition in these new NDCs, accompanied by rapid delivery, or the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C will be dead within a few years.” With nations due to update their climate pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year, UNEP says this represents a make-or-break moment. The new commitments must deliver what the agency calls a “quantum leap” to avoid planetary catastrophe. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era,” Andersen said. “We may not make it. But the only certain path to failure is not trying.” Going backwards The Emissions Gap remains unchanged since UNEP issued the last edition of its annual report last year. In a year that demanded cuts, emissions instead rose 1.3% to record levels in 2023, with coal accounting for 65% of the increase, according to the International Energy Agency. While record deployments of renewable energy, nuclear power and electric vehicles helped curb emissions growth, they couldn’t keep pace with rising energy demand and the impact of severe droughts on hydropower generation. Without this rapid expansion of clean technologies, emissions growth would have been three times higher, according to IEA data. Only one pathway identified in the report halts warming beyond 2100: All 107 countries with net-zero pledges must deliver on their promises and quickly put their plans into action. This could cap warming at 1.9°C, but UNEP has “low” confidence countries will follow through. Countries accounting for 82% of global emissions have made net-zero promises, but progress has stalled. “Current policies, conditional NDCs, unconditional NDCs – in any of these scenarios, whether emissions peak and fall a small amount or plateau, all of them represent a lost decade,” said Neil Grant, a lead author of the report. “Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change.” G20 nations must ‘do the heavy lifting’ Just six countries accounted for 63% of global emissions in 2023, with the least developed nations contributing only 3%, highlighting particular concerns about inaction among major emitters, especially the G20. “We identified very few newly adopted policies [by G20 nations] underpinned by quantitative assessments that deliver considerable emission reduction impact by 2030 or beyond. This is very worrying,” said Takeshi Kuramochi, lead author of the G20 section of the report. “It’s been a calm past 12 months, in a negative way.” Seven G20 members – China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey – have not yet reached peak emissions, a pre-requisite to achieving net zero. For G20 nations that have peaked, including the US, EU, Russia and Canada, “their rate of decarbonization would need to accelerate – in some cases dramatically – after 2030 to achieve their net-zero goals unless they accelerate action now,” UNEP found. “We must remember that 1.5°C is not an on-off switch that will plunge the world into an era of darkness and chaos,” Andersen said. “We are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved.” “The G20, particularly the members that dominate emissions, need to do the heavy lifting,” Andersen added. “Climate crunch time is here.” ‘Wartime’ mobilization is required to keep 1.5C alive While there is “no chance” of limiting global warming to 1.5C under current policies, UNEP insists the target remains “technically possible” – but only through “immediate global mobilization on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” A sweeping transformation of energy, transport, and land use could cut 31 gigatonnes of CO2 annually – equivalent to 52% of global emissions – through existing technologies costing less than $200 per ton of carbon, UNEP estimates. Solar and wind energy alone could deliver 27% of required emissions cuts by 2030, rising to 38% by 2035, while forest protection and restoration could contribute another 20%. Together, these measures would deliver the steep emissions cuts scientists say are needed to keep 1.5C alive. “Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar power and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors,” Andersen said. “This is a gargantuan task that requires global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. But it does, for the moment, remain technically possible.” The price tag for this transformation is steep but achievable, according to UNEP. Annual investment in mitigation measures must increase six-fold to 11.7$ trillion per year by 2035 – approximately 10% of the global economy. “These investments don’t even take all the benefits into account and the avoided damages,” Olhoff said. “It would be very costly not to invest in a green transition.” This is a developing story and will be updated. Image Credits: Joanne Francis. 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Nations Deadlocked Over Health-Biodiversity Framework at COP16 26/10/2024 Stefan Anderson Negotiations continue on health provisions in biodiversity plans as the UN summit in Cali reaches its midpoint. Only 35 countries have submitted the national strategies required by the UN biodiversity treaty showing how they’ll meet its binding nature protection targets. While 33 of these plans recognise links between human health and biodiversity, they offer few specifics on implementation and policy, a Health Policy Watch analysis found. Negotiators in Cali aim to bridge the gap this week by adopting a global health action plan under the treaty that provides a roadmap for meeting its health protection requirements. Midway through the UN biodiversity summit COP16 in Cali, Colombia, delegates from nearly 200 countries remain deadlocked over rules to protect human health from Earth’s mounting ecological crisis. UN Environment chief Inger Andersen urged delegates Thursday to break the impasse over the Global Action Plan on Biodiversity and Health, which would align conservation efforts with human health priorities as nations wrestle with implementing the landmark 2022 Montreal biodiversity treaty. “Our health cannot be separated from the health of the planet and its many species,” she told delegates in Cali. “We must adopt this action plan and implement it with a holistic, systemic approach that unifies action across health, environment, finance, industry and agriculture.” Over the weekend Biodiversity deal seeks health rules – but keeps them voluntary The world agreed to protect nature in Montreal two years ago. Now in Cali, countries must figure out how. The proposed framework would strengthen the 2022 Kunming-Montreal biodiversity agreement – nature’s equivalent to the Paris Climate Accord – which committed 197 nations to protect 30% of Earth’s land and seas by 2030, but left crucial health provisions largely undefined. While the Convention on Biodiversity itself is legally binding, the proposed health framework would serve as a voluntary roadmap for nations. It calls for health impact assessments in land-use planning, disease surveillance where habitat loss is rapid, and stricter wildlife trade rules — measures experts say are vital to prevent pathogens spreading from wild animals to human communities and food markets. The framework also emphasises protecting genetic resources crucial for new medicine development and ensuring vulnerable populations have access to nature’s health benefits. The push comes amid controversy at the UN biodiversity summit over countries’ rights to demand “benefit sharing” when genetic resources, including digital sequences, are used in drug development — a fight at the frontiers of biodiversity science that nearly derailed the landmark 2022 Montreal agreement. Beyond the fight over genetic resources, nations broadly agree on the framework’s other targets: combating vector-borne diseases emerging from shrinking habitats, reducing chemical exposure from industry, and protecting communities from the toxic toll of mass pesticide use. If approved, the plan’s voluntary nature, combined with history, suggests an uphill battle: the world has not met a single UN biodiversity goal since talks began in Nairobi over 30 years ago. Sweeping New Global Biodiversity Deal Sets Out Plan for Sharing Gene Sequences The health focus at the UN biodiversity summit reflects a broader shift in environmental diplomacy, marked by the first-ever Health Day at UN climate talks (COP28) in Dubai last year. While biodiversity has long been valued for medical discoveries — nearly half of all pharmaceuticals in use today are originally derived from nature — scientists increasingly see ecosystem protection as vital for preventing disease outbreaks, controlling disease vectors, and limiting chemical exposure. Biodiversity loss and climate change have emerged as the leading drivers of infectious diseases worldwide, amplifying 58% of outbreaks. The mounting threat is forcing policymakers to reckon with an increasingly inescapable truth: human survival depends entirely on Earth’s life-sustaining systems — clean water, air, and food. “Framing biodiversity as a resource – something separate, something that gives – has led to humanity converting nature, driving species to extinction, polluting ecosystems and pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,” Andersen said. “But humanity is not separate from or above biodiversity. And in a closed system such as Earth, what goes around comes around.” Deep divisions over superbug prevention and drug development mirror COP16 tensions The Biodiversity-Health framework is one of the most contested documents being negotiated at COP16 in Cali, Colombia this week, according to Carbon Brief. The 24-page Biodiversity-Health framework is as one of the summit’s most contested documents, with 54 bracketed sections exposing fundamental disagreements between nations. The disputed clauses reflect wider fault lines in Cali. Nations remain divided over whether to classify improperly disposed antibiotic waste – a key driver of antimicrobial resistance – as “pollution” alongside microplastics and heavy metals. Proposals to “avoid the inappropriate use and disposal” of antibiotics are also unsettled, despite safe disposal practices being critical to preserving the efficacy drugs that save hundreds of millions of lives annually. The sharing of benefits from genetic resources is another flashpoint. Developing nations demand strong commitments on technology transfer, while wealthy countries insist such transfers must remain “voluntary.” Nations with major pharmaceutical industries have pushed also back against draft language that would hold companies accountable for “the misappropriation of genetic resources and digital sequence information and associated traditional knowledge. A crucial sticking point centres on whether to include “derivatives” and “subsequent applications and commercialisation” – essentially determining if companies must share benefits when they develop new products based on initial discoveries. Without such provisions, firms could potentially avoid sharing profits from derivative drugs or applications. Finance – the dominant issue of COP16’s opening week – is another key battleground in the health framework. Nations have yet to approve clauses that would provide financial support to developing countries, which host most of the world’s biodiversity, for implementing plans to protect it. Of the few plans submitted, most consider health Of 35 submitted biodiversity plans, Western Europe leads with 13, followed by Asia-Pacific with 10, while Africa filed 5, Latin America 4, and Eastern Europe 3, according to the COP16 database. National biodiversity plans submitted before this week’s summit in Colombia summit reveal wide variations in scope and specificity for how countries intend to tackle environmental protection and human health concerns, a Health Policy Watch analysis of the COP16 database found. Only 35 nations – just 18% – submitted biodiversity strategies, known as NBSAPs in UN jargon, by Monday’s UN summit deadline. All but Mexico and Jordan included human health concerns in their plans. The submitted plans reflect clear regional priorities. European Union members emphasize a comprehensive “one health” approach that links human, animal and environmental welfare, focusing heavily on pesticide and chemical pollution regulation – areas where the EU leads global policy. Colombia’s strategy takes a different focus, centering on health impacts from extractive industries, particularly mercury contamination from mining. In contrast, China and South Korea’s plans barely mention health, making single references to urban green spaces’ benefits for respiratory and mental health. These varied approaches come as research increasingly links ecosystem destruction to public health crises, from floods to disease outbreaks. Scientists have documented two virus spillovers to humans annually over the past century, culminating in the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Health Organization projects climate change could cause 250,000 additional deaths yearly between 2030-2050. Antimicrobial resistance already claims 1.4 million lives annually, while environmental degradation could cause 39 million deaths from 2025-2050. The proposed health framework, though voluntary, would set higher standards than current national plans. “From the air we breathe to the water we drink, our health is tied to the health of the planet,” said UN Environment chief Andersen. “We need a plan to protect biodiversity for the health of all species on earth.” Critical regions and powers missing from submissions While most nations haven’t submitted biodiversity plans required by the Montreal deal, officials say the two-year timeline was ambitious given ecosystem complexity, especially in regions like the Amazon. Of the 17 nations hosting 70% of Earth’s biodiversity, only five have filed plans: Australia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Mexico. The crucial Amazon region is represented solely by Suriname, with no submissions from Congo Basin nations. The G7 economic powers showed limited participation, with only Canada, Italy, France and Japan meeting the deadline. Among G20 members, Brazil indicated it needs more time to develop its long-term conservation strategy, while India plans to announce its commitments during the summit. “The start was never going to be fast. I think the important thing we’re looking at is the work is underway,” UN biodiversity chief Astrid Schomaker told Carbon Brief about the limited submissions. “Whether the deadline itself is met on the dot is not what I think we’re really looking at,” Schomaker said, adding she is “confident” this work is taking place globally. “I think our assessment is globally positive.” Biodiversity and health deal advances, but key framework still faces hurdles Negotiations on biodiversity and health took a step forward on Sunday as the second working group’s chair presented a draft decision – a document separate from but related to the broader biodiversity and health action plan. While the draft includes a provision to adopt the action plan, this remains in brackets, indicating no consensus has yet been reached among member states. The draft makes several key advances, eliminating previous disputes over antimicrobial disposal protocols and removing qualifiers that made technology sharing optional. It also strengthens provisions for Indigenous peoples’ participation in global biodiversity initiatives and decision-making forums. However, several contentious issues from the main biodiversity framework remain unresolved. These include questions of pharmaceutical companies’ liability regarding genetic resource usage and digital sequence information, whether derivatives and commercial applications should be included in fair and equitable benefit-sharing arrangements, and the creation of international oversight mechanisms to ensure countries meet their biodiversity and health commitments. Finance remains a critical hurdle in the health and broader COP16 negotiations. While eight nations boosted the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund this week with pledges totaling $163m, bringing available funding to $400m, this falls dramatically short of global needs. The Kunming-Montreal agreement calls for $200bn annually for nature protection – 500 times the current fund’s total, which isn’t even structured as yearly financing. Though there is broad agreement on the principle of financial support from development banks and environmental funds, the mechanisms for distribution remain hotly contested. As with previous UN environmental negotiations, talks may extend beyond the official Friday deadline as delegates work to bridge these remaining gaps. This article was updated to reflect progress in the negotiations Image Credits: CIFOR-ICRAF. Egyptians Still Face Barriers to Insulin Access, Despite Promises of Expanded Domestic Production 25/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy A view point in Minya Governorate. Nearly 11 million Egyptians live with diabetes, where insulin access is increasingly out of reach for those in rural areas. MINYA GOVERNORATE, EGYPT – Nine-year-old Adam needs an insulin shot before meals, and seems unphased when his father checks his sugar levels with a finger pricking. He looks away when a small blood drop wells on the tip of his finger. Adam turns back to his plate of rice and stewed vegetables, continuing to ramble about the kids in his summer camp. Both Adam and his father are diabetic in a rural village in Upper Egypt, where their struggle to access insulin mirrors a broader struggle across the country, and the continent. In a country where over 18% of adults live with diabetes, and with the number of adults living with diabetes expected to hit 20 million by 2045, diagnosis, monitoring, and medication are all difficult to come by. In response, Egypt is now taking significant steps to expand insulin access and diabetes prevention–in the context of rising prevalence. But financial and logistic barriers as well as competing political priorities still leave rural families at the ‘last mile’ of service in a precarious situation. New diagnostics more widely available – but shortages, power cuts, and inflation threaten access Moussa, with his son Adam, shows a continuous glucose monitor in their home in Upper Egypt. To address the growing health and financial burden of the disease, the Egyptian National Health Insurance system recently began to cover the initial cost of a glucometer for newly diagnosed people as well as 25 test strips per month. Yet while over-the-counter glucose monitoring ads flood US airwaves for non-diabetic consumers, many Egyptians, like people in other developing world countries, still struggle to obtain such basic devices for diabetes control. Diabetes care coverage remains below 50 percent for low- and middle-income countries, according to a Lancet estimate. Many or most low-income and informal Egyptian laborers simply don’t have health insurance while their income are not enough to afford their monthly diabetes supplies, notes T1 International, a non-profit diabetes care advocacy group: “It can cost someone more than 50% of their salary to get the basic diabetes supplies,” said Dr Mohamed Shabeen in a T1 article. Moussa’s stash of insulin pens and glucose monitors for the village. Paying for test strips, monitors, and insulin are just one part of the country’s $3 billion diabetes-related annual health expenditure. The International Diabetes Federation estimates this number will rise to $4.5 billion by 2045, a concern given Egypt’s rising national debt and economic woes – with the Egyptian pound devalued by more than 50 percent and food inflation over 60 percent. There are also indirect costs for diabetics. For instance, Adam’s parents enrolled him in a pricier private school, over fears that in the overcrowded public schools, Adam could go into insulin shock unnoticed. “I was worried he would go into a ketone coma (ketoacidosis),” said Moussa, Adam’s father, and English teacher who is one of the few-college educated people in his village of some 2,000 people. “I became diabetic in 2018, Adam in 2019. I noticed a lot of the same symptoms. “When he was diagnosed, I did so much research. I had to learn about the condition because there is so little information for people with diabetes.” Moussa ended up buying a Freestyle Libre glucose monitoring system so Adam could attend school uninterrupted, but it soon became too expensive “and we’re facing a shortage.” Villages, in Minya Governorate, like Moussa’s, struggle with affording insulin – and keeping it refrigerated during power outages. There are several other people living with diabetes in his village, Moussa explained, and they have formed a network, providing each other with valuable social support. “We have a WhatsApp group. If someone has extra medication, they give it to me and then I distribute it to others that need it.” The summer, however, was especially challenging as 40 ℃ temperatures were accompanied by prolonged power cuts, threatening insulin refrigeration. Diabetes ascendant – 11 million and climbing Diabetes treatment coverage remains below 50% across a variety of metrics in low- and middle-income countries. In WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, which includes most of the Middle East and North Africa, one in six adults now live with diabetes, making it the region with the highest prevalence at 16.2% and the second highest expected increase (86%) in the number of people with diabetes.The region also has the highest percentage (24.5%) of diabetes-related deaths in people of working age. In Egypt, the country is now one of many facing a double burden of malnutrition (DBM)–where 21% of children under five are stunted yet over half of children and adolescents are overweight or obese. The country’s rapidly rising rates of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) like diabetes, heart disease, and chronic respiratory diseases means that NCDs account for 82% of all deaths in Egypt and 67% of premature deaths. Public health experts point to the region’s lifestyle changes – a diet heavy in sugar and carbohydrates, lack of exercise, and other risk factors – as fueling the rise in NCDs. New domestic insulin production in limbo A view of the village in Minya Governorate, where the growing prevalence of diabetes threatens the village’s well being. In terms of treatment, there is little local insulin manufacturing in Egypt as well as the rest of Africa, leaving people to depend on expensive, important supplies. Several big initiatives have recently been announced to change that. But their status remains unclear. In May, 2023, Eli Lilly announced a major new partnership with the Egypt-based pharmaceutical company EVA Pharma to provide the company with the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) of insulin at a “significantly reduced price.” Just last month, EVA Pharma’s CEO Dr Riad Armanious declared in a press release that “locally manufactured insulin is currently a top priority, aiming for local supply and exporting it to more than 60 countries.” However, actual rollout of the plan still appears to be in limbo, with neither company responding when asked for comment by Health Policy Watch about the status of the new manufacturing plans. That, despite an August statement by Egypt’s Minister of Health and Population Khaled Abdel Ghaffar told press that the insulin shortage “would be over within three months” and that the country would produce a million more insulin vials a month, in coming months. He blamed a foreign currency shortage for the holdup in importation of critical raw ingredients needed to expand production, but “that the problem had been solved.” Egypt is home to some 170 pharmaceutical factories – and state-owned companies already produce as much as 15 million vials yearly – but much of this also reportedly goes to export. This leaves Egyptians, who need some 27 million vials a year, in an even greater bind. Additionally, observers in the field say privately that the local products are not yet as of good quality as imported ones – something that the partnership between Eli Lilly and Eva should help address. WHO – no further details on the rollout of manufacturing Dr Loyce Pace, with WHO’s Dr Bente Mikkelsen, Africa CDC’s Dr Jean Kaseya and EVA Pharma CEO Riad Armanious at the EVA-Lilly partnership announcement last year. Asked for comment, the World Health Organization also was unable to offer further updates on a timeline for Egypt’s rollout of its much-touted expanded insulin production. WHO is not a direct partner in the Eli Lilly-Eva partnership, but it has been “actively engaging with various stakeholders, including the private sector, to fulfill commitments made in the UN Political Declaration on NCDs,” said Dr Bente Mikkelsen Director, just prior to her retirement on 1 October as head of WHO’s Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, Rehabilitation and Disability (NCD). “Several companies have responded positively to these ‘asks’, including commitments to local manufacturing,” she added, in a comment to Health Policy Watch. Meanwhile, in Minya Governorate, Moussa has been traveling more frequently to Cairo some four hours away by car “to get good healthcare” – after monitoring Adam’s symptoms, as well as his own, and their similarities. But he still hopes that he and others in his community can eventually get quality insulin and glucose monitors at a fairer price locally. “Right now, I’m getting them from Cairo, and we have to pay taxes and customs. It would be great for all these people in our community to be able to afford this as well.” Image Credits: S. Samantaroy/HPW, The Lancet. Another Rwandan Health Worker Gets Marburg, While Cases of Children Co-infected with Mpox and Measles Rise 24/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Dr Ngashi Ngongo (Africa CDC) and Dr Jean-Marie Yameogo (WHO), the continental co-leads on mpox. Rwanda has recorded its 63rd Marburg case, while cases of children coinfected with both mpox and measles are rising in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) weekly media briefing on Thursday. After 10 days of no new cases, a health worker who has been caring for Marburg patients tested positive for the virus on Wednesday night, Rwandan Health Minister Dr Sabin Nsanzimana told the briefing. But the health worker was vaccinated a few days ago and is “doing well” with disease presentation that was “not usual”, Nsanzimana added. “The good thing is that the person has been in a treatment centre and has no contacts outside the centre,” he added. Meanwhile, the source of the Marburg outbreak has been traced to fruit bats in a cave where the index case had been mining, said Nsanzimana. Once this had been confirmed, all human activity at the cave had been stopped and the government is following up on the people working there, to make sure they they don’t develop the disease, he added. Genome sequencing of the virus confirmed that it was both very close to the zoonotic source – the virus in the bats – and to other Marburg cases imported into the country. This underscored the importance of a One Health approach involving experts on human and animal health and the environment, said Nsanzimana. Mpox testing slowly improving Some 2,729 new mpox cases were reported in the past week – over 90% of which in DRC and Burundi, although Liberia, Kenya and Uganda reported new cases, according to Dr Ngashi Ngongo, Africa CDC’s lead on mpox. There has been an increase in mpox patients under the age of 15 being co-infected with measles in the DRC, particularly in Nord Kivu and Sud Kivu – but it is unclear whether one disease made children susceptible to the other. Little more than half the children in these areas have been vaccinated against measles and there is also a high malnutrition rate, which weakens the children’s immune systems, said Ngongo. “We haven’t yet established if the fact that you get measles, then increase your chances of getting mpox and vice versa,” he added. The DRC’s vaccination campaign underway in six provinces, was generally going well with over 39,000 people vaccinated. Nigeria plans to launch its vaccination campaign on 29 October. “We have 5.6 million doses of mpox vaccines that have been confirmed, of which 2.5 million are MVA-BN and three million of the LC16 from Japan,” said Ngongo. Close to 900,000 doses of MVA-BN are available this month October, with another 700,000 potentially available in November, which he described as being “enough, at least, for the moment, to cover the plans that we have received”. However, getting vaccines for children remains a challenge although World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the MVA-BN can be used “off label” for children at risk. After weeks of struggling to increase testing, there had been a 37% increase in tests in the past week – and a big jump in test positivity from 36.5% to 63%. This can be attributed to training on sample management, PCR and Gene Xpert testing, more sequencing equipment, as well as the distribution of more Gene Xperts cartridges (to run the machines), and PCR tests being set to affected countries. No new cases have been recorded in Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, Rwanda and South Africa in the past four weeks. However, surveillance has been a huge challenge, said Ngongo. Only four of the 18 affected countries had reached contact tracing targets of 10 per patient. Meanwhile, the Robert Koch Institute in Germany reported the country’s first case of mpox Clade 1b. The patient recently traveled out of the country, but it not clear where he been. Outside of Africa, Sweden and Thailand have also each reported a case of mpox 1b, the more virulent version of the . World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action 24/10/2024 Stefan Anderson No policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented worldwide in 2023. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain catastrophically off track, with current policies putting the world on course for a 3.1°C temperature rise by century’s end, the UN Environment Programme warned Thursday in its annual “Emissions Gap” report. To keep the 1.5°C target alive, nations must slash emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 – yet emissions continue to climb, hitting record highs last year. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters at the report’s launch. “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly intense climate disasters worldwide,” Guterres said. “People are paying a terrible price.” Despite a year marked by devastating hurricanes, droughts and floods, no country implemented policies “with significant implications for global emissions in 2023,” UNEP found. “Another year has passed without action, and that means we’re worse off,” said Ann Olhoff, the report’s lead scientific editor. “The findings are fairly similar to last year, apart from emissions still going up.” Twenty-nine years after international climate talks began, the sum total of global climate pledges – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would allow temperatures to rise by a “catastrophic” 2.6°C, even if fully implemented, according to the report. Most major economies, including many G20 nations, are failing to meet even these insufficient commitments – let alone achieve the 42% emissions cuts needed. By mid-century, current trajectories point to warming well above 1.5°C, with up to a one-in-three chance of exceeding 2°C. The report warns that warming is expected to intensify beyond 2100, as CO2 emissions are not projected to reach net zero under existing scenarios. Each year of delay makes the task harder: Global emissions must now fall 7.5% every year until 2035 to keep warming to 1.5 C. For a 2 C limit, yearly cuts of 4% are needed. “If we procrastinate, that figure will obviously grow with every year of inaction,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “Nations must show a massive increase in ambition in these new NDCs, accompanied by rapid delivery, or the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C will be dead within a few years.” With nations due to update their climate pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year, UNEP says this represents a make-or-break moment. The new commitments must deliver what the agency calls a “quantum leap” to avoid planetary catastrophe. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era,” Andersen said. “We may not make it. But the only certain path to failure is not trying.” Going backwards The Emissions Gap remains unchanged since UNEP issued the last edition of its annual report last year. In a year that demanded cuts, emissions instead rose 1.3% to record levels in 2023, with coal accounting for 65% of the increase, according to the International Energy Agency. While record deployments of renewable energy, nuclear power and electric vehicles helped curb emissions growth, they couldn’t keep pace with rising energy demand and the impact of severe droughts on hydropower generation. Without this rapid expansion of clean technologies, emissions growth would have been three times higher, according to IEA data. Only one pathway identified in the report halts warming beyond 2100: All 107 countries with net-zero pledges must deliver on their promises and quickly put their plans into action. This could cap warming at 1.9°C, but UNEP has “low” confidence countries will follow through. Countries accounting for 82% of global emissions have made net-zero promises, but progress has stalled. “Current policies, conditional NDCs, unconditional NDCs – in any of these scenarios, whether emissions peak and fall a small amount or plateau, all of them represent a lost decade,” said Neil Grant, a lead author of the report. “Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change.” G20 nations must ‘do the heavy lifting’ Just six countries accounted for 63% of global emissions in 2023, with the least developed nations contributing only 3%, highlighting particular concerns about inaction among major emitters, especially the G20. “We identified very few newly adopted policies [by G20 nations] underpinned by quantitative assessments that deliver considerable emission reduction impact by 2030 or beyond. This is very worrying,” said Takeshi Kuramochi, lead author of the G20 section of the report. “It’s been a calm past 12 months, in a negative way.” Seven G20 members – China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey – have not yet reached peak emissions, a pre-requisite to achieving net zero. For G20 nations that have peaked, including the US, EU, Russia and Canada, “their rate of decarbonization would need to accelerate – in some cases dramatically – after 2030 to achieve their net-zero goals unless they accelerate action now,” UNEP found. “We must remember that 1.5°C is not an on-off switch that will plunge the world into an era of darkness and chaos,” Andersen said. “We are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved.” “The G20, particularly the members that dominate emissions, need to do the heavy lifting,” Andersen added. “Climate crunch time is here.” ‘Wartime’ mobilization is required to keep 1.5C alive While there is “no chance” of limiting global warming to 1.5C under current policies, UNEP insists the target remains “technically possible” – but only through “immediate global mobilization on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” A sweeping transformation of energy, transport, and land use could cut 31 gigatonnes of CO2 annually – equivalent to 52% of global emissions – through existing technologies costing less than $200 per ton of carbon, UNEP estimates. Solar and wind energy alone could deliver 27% of required emissions cuts by 2030, rising to 38% by 2035, while forest protection and restoration could contribute another 20%. Together, these measures would deliver the steep emissions cuts scientists say are needed to keep 1.5C alive. “Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar power and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors,” Andersen said. “This is a gargantuan task that requires global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. But it does, for the moment, remain technically possible.” The price tag for this transformation is steep but achievable, according to UNEP. Annual investment in mitigation measures must increase six-fold to 11.7$ trillion per year by 2035 – approximately 10% of the global economy. “These investments don’t even take all the benefits into account and the avoided damages,” Olhoff said. “It would be very costly not to invest in a green transition.” This is a developing story and will be updated. Image Credits: Joanne Francis. 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Egyptians Still Face Barriers to Insulin Access, Despite Promises of Expanded Domestic Production 25/10/2024 Sophia Samantaroy A view point in Minya Governorate. Nearly 11 million Egyptians live with diabetes, where insulin access is increasingly out of reach for those in rural areas. MINYA GOVERNORATE, EGYPT – Nine-year-old Adam needs an insulin shot before meals, and seems unphased when his father checks his sugar levels with a finger pricking. He looks away when a small blood drop wells on the tip of his finger. Adam turns back to his plate of rice and stewed vegetables, continuing to ramble about the kids in his summer camp. Both Adam and his father are diabetic in a rural village in Upper Egypt, where their struggle to access insulin mirrors a broader struggle across the country, and the continent. In a country where over 18% of adults live with diabetes, and with the number of adults living with diabetes expected to hit 20 million by 2045, diagnosis, monitoring, and medication are all difficult to come by. In response, Egypt is now taking significant steps to expand insulin access and diabetes prevention–in the context of rising prevalence. But financial and logistic barriers as well as competing political priorities still leave rural families at the ‘last mile’ of service in a precarious situation. New diagnostics more widely available – but shortages, power cuts, and inflation threaten access Moussa, with his son Adam, shows a continuous glucose monitor in their home in Upper Egypt. To address the growing health and financial burden of the disease, the Egyptian National Health Insurance system recently began to cover the initial cost of a glucometer for newly diagnosed people as well as 25 test strips per month. Yet while over-the-counter glucose monitoring ads flood US airwaves for non-diabetic consumers, many Egyptians, like people in other developing world countries, still struggle to obtain such basic devices for diabetes control. Diabetes care coverage remains below 50 percent for low- and middle-income countries, according to a Lancet estimate. Many or most low-income and informal Egyptian laborers simply don’t have health insurance while their income are not enough to afford their monthly diabetes supplies, notes T1 International, a non-profit diabetes care advocacy group: “It can cost someone more than 50% of their salary to get the basic diabetes supplies,” said Dr Mohamed Shabeen in a T1 article. Moussa’s stash of insulin pens and glucose monitors for the village. Paying for test strips, monitors, and insulin are just one part of the country’s $3 billion diabetes-related annual health expenditure. The International Diabetes Federation estimates this number will rise to $4.5 billion by 2045, a concern given Egypt’s rising national debt and economic woes – with the Egyptian pound devalued by more than 50 percent and food inflation over 60 percent. There are also indirect costs for diabetics. For instance, Adam’s parents enrolled him in a pricier private school, over fears that in the overcrowded public schools, Adam could go into insulin shock unnoticed. “I was worried he would go into a ketone coma (ketoacidosis),” said Moussa, Adam’s father, and English teacher who is one of the few-college educated people in his village of some 2,000 people. “I became diabetic in 2018, Adam in 2019. I noticed a lot of the same symptoms. “When he was diagnosed, I did so much research. I had to learn about the condition because there is so little information for people with diabetes.” Moussa ended up buying a Freestyle Libre glucose monitoring system so Adam could attend school uninterrupted, but it soon became too expensive “and we’re facing a shortage.” Villages, in Minya Governorate, like Moussa’s, struggle with affording insulin – and keeping it refrigerated during power outages. There are several other people living with diabetes in his village, Moussa explained, and they have formed a network, providing each other with valuable social support. “We have a WhatsApp group. If someone has extra medication, they give it to me and then I distribute it to others that need it.” The summer, however, was especially challenging as 40 ℃ temperatures were accompanied by prolonged power cuts, threatening insulin refrigeration. Diabetes ascendant – 11 million and climbing Diabetes treatment coverage remains below 50% across a variety of metrics in low- and middle-income countries. In WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, which includes most of the Middle East and North Africa, one in six adults now live with diabetes, making it the region with the highest prevalence at 16.2% and the second highest expected increase (86%) in the number of people with diabetes.The region also has the highest percentage (24.5%) of diabetes-related deaths in people of working age. In Egypt, the country is now one of many facing a double burden of malnutrition (DBM)–where 21% of children under five are stunted yet over half of children and adolescents are overweight or obese. The country’s rapidly rising rates of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) like diabetes, heart disease, and chronic respiratory diseases means that NCDs account for 82% of all deaths in Egypt and 67% of premature deaths. Public health experts point to the region’s lifestyle changes – a diet heavy in sugar and carbohydrates, lack of exercise, and other risk factors – as fueling the rise in NCDs. New domestic insulin production in limbo A view of the village in Minya Governorate, where the growing prevalence of diabetes threatens the village’s well being. In terms of treatment, there is little local insulin manufacturing in Egypt as well as the rest of Africa, leaving people to depend on expensive, important supplies. Several big initiatives have recently been announced to change that. But their status remains unclear. In May, 2023, Eli Lilly announced a major new partnership with the Egypt-based pharmaceutical company EVA Pharma to provide the company with the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) of insulin at a “significantly reduced price.” Just last month, EVA Pharma’s CEO Dr Riad Armanious declared in a press release that “locally manufactured insulin is currently a top priority, aiming for local supply and exporting it to more than 60 countries.” However, actual rollout of the plan still appears to be in limbo, with neither company responding when asked for comment by Health Policy Watch about the status of the new manufacturing plans. That, despite an August statement by Egypt’s Minister of Health and Population Khaled Abdel Ghaffar told press that the insulin shortage “would be over within three months” and that the country would produce a million more insulin vials a month, in coming months. He blamed a foreign currency shortage for the holdup in importation of critical raw ingredients needed to expand production, but “that the problem had been solved.” Egypt is home to some 170 pharmaceutical factories – and state-owned companies already produce as much as 15 million vials yearly – but much of this also reportedly goes to export. This leaves Egyptians, who need some 27 million vials a year, in an even greater bind. Additionally, observers in the field say privately that the local products are not yet as of good quality as imported ones – something that the partnership between Eli Lilly and Eva should help address. WHO – no further details on the rollout of manufacturing Dr Loyce Pace, with WHO’s Dr Bente Mikkelsen, Africa CDC’s Dr Jean Kaseya and EVA Pharma CEO Riad Armanious at the EVA-Lilly partnership announcement last year. Asked for comment, the World Health Organization also was unable to offer further updates on a timeline for Egypt’s rollout of its much-touted expanded insulin production. WHO is not a direct partner in the Eli Lilly-Eva partnership, but it has been “actively engaging with various stakeholders, including the private sector, to fulfill commitments made in the UN Political Declaration on NCDs,” said Dr Bente Mikkelsen Director, just prior to her retirement on 1 October as head of WHO’s Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, Rehabilitation and Disability (NCD). “Several companies have responded positively to these ‘asks’, including commitments to local manufacturing,” she added, in a comment to Health Policy Watch. Meanwhile, in Minya Governorate, Moussa has been traveling more frequently to Cairo some four hours away by car “to get good healthcare” – after monitoring Adam’s symptoms, as well as his own, and their similarities. But he still hopes that he and others in his community can eventually get quality insulin and glucose monitors at a fairer price locally. “Right now, I’m getting them from Cairo, and we have to pay taxes and customs. It would be great for all these people in our community to be able to afford this as well.” Image Credits: S. Samantaroy/HPW, The Lancet. Another Rwandan Health Worker Gets Marburg, While Cases of Children Co-infected with Mpox and Measles Rise 24/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Dr Ngashi Ngongo (Africa CDC) and Dr Jean-Marie Yameogo (WHO), the continental co-leads on mpox. Rwanda has recorded its 63rd Marburg case, while cases of children coinfected with both mpox and measles are rising in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) weekly media briefing on Thursday. After 10 days of no new cases, a health worker who has been caring for Marburg patients tested positive for the virus on Wednesday night, Rwandan Health Minister Dr Sabin Nsanzimana told the briefing. But the health worker was vaccinated a few days ago and is “doing well” with disease presentation that was “not usual”, Nsanzimana added. “The good thing is that the person has been in a treatment centre and has no contacts outside the centre,” he added. Meanwhile, the source of the Marburg outbreak has been traced to fruit bats in a cave where the index case had been mining, said Nsanzimana. Once this had been confirmed, all human activity at the cave had been stopped and the government is following up on the people working there, to make sure they they don’t develop the disease, he added. Genome sequencing of the virus confirmed that it was both very close to the zoonotic source – the virus in the bats – and to other Marburg cases imported into the country. This underscored the importance of a One Health approach involving experts on human and animal health and the environment, said Nsanzimana. Mpox testing slowly improving Some 2,729 new mpox cases were reported in the past week – over 90% of which in DRC and Burundi, although Liberia, Kenya and Uganda reported new cases, according to Dr Ngashi Ngongo, Africa CDC’s lead on mpox. There has been an increase in mpox patients under the age of 15 being co-infected with measles in the DRC, particularly in Nord Kivu and Sud Kivu – but it is unclear whether one disease made children susceptible to the other. Little more than half the children in these areas have been vaccinated against measles and there is also a high malnutrition rate, which weakens the children’s immune systems, said Ngongo. “We haven’t yet established if the fact that you get measles, then increase your chances of getting mpox and vice versa,” he added. The DRC’s vaccination campaign underway in six provinces, was generally going well with over 39,000 people vaccinated. Nigeria plans to launch its vaccination campaign on 29 October. “We have 5.6 million doses of mpox vaccines that have been confirmed, of which 2.5 million are MVA-BN and three million of the LC16 from Japan,” said Ngongo. Close to 900,000 doses of MVA-BN are available this month October, with another 700,000 potentially available in November, which he described as being “enough, at least, for the moment, to cover the plans that we have received”. However, getting vaccines for children remains a challenge although World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the MVA-BN can be used “off label” for children at risk. After weeks of struggling to increase testing, there had been a 37% increase in tests in the past week – and a big jump in test positivity from 36.5% to 63%. This can be attributed to training on sample management, PCR and Gene Xpert testing, more sequencing equipment, as well as the distribution of more Gene Xperts cartridges (to run the machines), and PCR tests being set to affected countries. No new cases have been recorded in Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, Rwanda and South Africa in the past four weeks. However, surveillance has been a huge challenge, said Ngongo. Only four of the 18 affected countries had reached contact tracing targets of 10 per patient. Meanwhile, the Robert Koch Institute in Germany reported the country’s first case of mpox Clade 1b. The patient recently traveled out of the country, but it not clear where he been. Outside of Africa, Sweden and Thailand have also each reported a case of mpox 1b, the more virulent version of the . World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action 24/10/2024 Stefan Anderson No policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented worldwide in 2023. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain catastrophically off track, with current policies putting the world on course for a 3.1°C temperature rise by century’s end, the UN Environment Programme warned Thursday in its annual “Emissions Gap” report. To keep the 1.5°C target alive, nations must slash emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 – yet emissions continue to climb, hitting record highs last year. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters at the report’s launch. “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly intense climate disasters worldwide,” Guterres said. “People are paying a terrible price.” Despite a year marked by devastating hurricanes, droughts and floods, no country implemented policies “with significant implications for global emissions in 2023,” UNEP found. “Another year has passed without action, and that means we’re worse off,” said Ann Olhoff, the report’s lead scientific editor. “The findings are fairly similar to last year, apart from emissions still going up.” Twenty-nine years after international climate talks began, the sum total of global climate pledges – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would allow temperatures to rise by a “catastrophic” 2.6°C, even if fully implemented, according to the report. Most major economies, including many G20 nations, are failing to meet even these insufficient commitments – let alone achieve the 42% emissions cuts needed. By mid-century, current trajectories point to warming well above 1.5°C, with up to a one-in-three chance of exceeding 2°C. The report warns that warming is expected to intensify beyond 2100, as CO2 emissions are not projected to reach net zero under existing scenarios. Each year of delay makes the task harder: Global emissions must now fall 7.5% every year until 2035 to keep warming to 1.5 C. For a 2 C limit, yearly cuts of 4% are needed. “If we procrastinate, that figure will obviously grow with every year of inaction,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “Nations must show a massive increase in ambition in these new NDCs, accompanied by rapid delivery, or the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C will be dead within a few years.” With nations due to update their climate pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year, UNEP says this represents a make-or-break moment. The new commitments must deliver what the agency calls a “quantum leap” to avoid planetary catastrophe. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era,” Andersen said. “We may not make it. But the only certain path to failure is not trying.” Going backwards The Emissions Gap remains unchanged since UNEP issued the last edition of its annual report last year. In a year that demanded cuts, emissions instead rose 1.3% to record levels in 2023, with coal accounting for 65% of the increase, according to the International Energy Agency. While record deployments of renewable energy, nuclear power and electric vehicles helped curb emissions growth, they couldn’t keep pace with rising energy demand and the impact of severe droughts on hydropower generation. Without this rapid expansion of clean technologies, emissions growth would have been three times higher, according to IEA data. Only one pathway identified in the report halts warming beyond 2100: All 107 countries with net-zero pledges must deliver on their promises and quickly put their plans into action. This could cap warming at 1.9°C, but UNEP has “low” confidence countries will follow through. Countries accounting for 82% of global emissions have made net-zero promises, but progress has stalled. “Current policies, conditional NDCs, unconditional NDCs – in any of these scenarios, whether emissions peak and fall a small amount or plateau, all of them represent a lost decade,” said Neil Grant, a lead author of the report. “Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change.” G20 nations must ‘do the heavy lifting’ Just six countries accounted for 63% of global emissions in 2023, with the least developed nations contributing only 3%, highlighting particular concerns about inaction among major emitters, especially the G20. “We identified very few newly adopted policies [by G20 nations] underpinned by quantitative assessments that deliver considerable emission reduction impact by 2030 or beyond. This is very worrying,” said Takeshi Kuramochi, lead author of the G20 section of the report. “It’s been a calm past 12 months, in a negative way.” Seven G20 members – China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey – have not yet reached peak emissions, a pre-requisite to achieving net zero. For G20 nations that have peaked, including the US, EU, Russia and Canada, “their rate of decarbonization would need to accelerate – in some cases dramatically – after 2030 to achieve their net-zero goals unless they accelerate action now,” UNEP found. “We must remember that 1.5°C is not an on-off switch that will plunge the world into an era of darkness and chaos,” Andersen said. “We are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved.” “The G20, particularly the members that dominate emissions, need to do the heavy lifting,” Andersen added. “Climate crunch time is here.” ‘Wartime’ mobilization is required to keep 1.5C alive While there is “no chance” of limiting global warming to 1.5C under current policies, UNEP insists the target remains “technically possible” – but only through “immediate global mobilization on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” A sweeping transformation of energy, transport, and land use could cut 31 gigatonnes of CO2 annually – equivalent to 52% of global emissions – through existing technologies costing less than $200 per ton of carbon, UNEP estimates. Solar and wind energy alone could deliver 27% of required emissions cuts by 2030, rising to 38% by 2035, while forest protection and restoration could contribute another 20%. Together, these measures would deliver the steep emissions cuts scientists say are needed to keep 1.5C alive. “Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar power and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors,” Andersen said. “This is a gargantuan task that requires global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. But it does, for the moment, remain technically possible.” The price tag for this transformation is steep but achievable, according to UNEP. Annual investment in mitigation measures must increase six-fold to 11.7$ trillion per year by 2035 – approximately 10% of the global economy. “These investments don’t even take all the benefits into account and the avoided damages,” Olhoff said. “It would be very costly not to invest in a green transition.” This is a developing story and will be updated. Image Credits: Joanne Francis. 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Another Rwandan Health Worker Gets Marburg, While Cases of Children Co-infected with Mpox and Measles Rise 24/10/2024 Kerry Cullinan Dr Ngashi Ngongo (Africa CDC) and Dr Jean-Marie Yameogo (WHO), the continental co-leads on mpox. Rwanda has recorded its 63rd Marburg case, while cases of children coinfected with both mpox and measles are rising in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) weekly media briefing on Thursday. After 10 days of no new cases, a health worker who has been caring for Marburg patients tested positive for the virus on Wednesday night, Rwandan Health Minister Dr Sabin Nsanzimana told the briefing. But the health worker was vaccinated a few days ago and is “doing well” with disease presentation that was “not usual”, Nsanzimana added. “The good thing is that the person has been in a treatment centre and has no contacts outside the centre,” he added. Meanwhile, the source of the Marburg outbreak has been traced to fruit bats in a cave where the index case had been mining, said Nsanzimana. Once this had been confirmed, all human activity at the cave had been stopped and the government is following up on the people working there, to make sure they they don’t develop the disease, he added. Genome sequencing of the virus confirmed that it was both very close to the zoonotic source – the virus in the bats – and to other Marburg cases imported into the country. This underscored the importance of a One Health approach involving experts on human and animal health and the environment, said Nsanzimana. Mpox testing slowly improving Some 2,729 new mpox cases were reported in the past week – over 90% of which in DRC and Burundi, although Liberia, Kenya and Uganda reported new cases, according to Dr Ngashi Ngongo, Africa CDC’s lead on mpox. There has been an increase in mpox patients under the age of 15 being co-infected with measles in the DRC, particularly in Nord Kivu and Sud Kivu – but it is unclear whether one disease made children susceptible to the other. Little more than half the children in these areas have been vaccinated against measles and there is also a high malnutrition rate, which weakens the children’s immune systems, said Ngongo. “We haven’t yet established if the fact that you get measles, then increase your chances of getting mpox and vice versa,” he added. The DRC’s vaccination campaign underway in six provinces, was generally going well with over 39,000 people vaccinated. Nigeria plans to launch its vaccination campaign on 29 October. “We have 5.6 million doses of mpox vaccines that have been confirmed, of which 2.5 million are MVA-BN and three million of the LC16 from Japan,” said Ngongo. Close to 900,000 doses of MVA-BN are available this month October, with another 700,000 potentially available in November, which he described as being “enough, at least, for the moment, to cover the plans that we have received”. However, getting vaccines for children remains a challenge although World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the MVA-BN can be used “off label” for children at risk. After weeks of struggling to increase testing, there had been a 37% increase in tests in the past week – and a big jump in test positivity from 36.5% to 63%. This can be attributed to training on sample management, PCR and Gene Xpert testing, more sequencing equipment, as well as the distribution of more Gene Xperts cartridges (to run the machines), and PCR tests being set to affected countries. No new cases have been recorded in Cameroon, Gabon, Guinea, Rwanda and South Africa in the past four weeks. However, surveillance has been a huge challenge, said Ngongo. Only four of the 18 affected countries had reached contact tracing targets of 10 per patient. Meanwhile, the Robert Koch Institute in Germany reported the country’s first case of mpox Clade 1b. The patient recently traveled out of the country, but it not clear where he been. Outside of Africa, Sweden and Thailand have also each reported a case of mpox 1b, the more virulent version of the . World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action 24/10/2024 Stefan Anderson No policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented worldwide in 2023. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain catastrophically off track, with current policies putting the world on course for a 3.1°C temperature rise by century’s end, the UN Environment Programme warned Thursday in its annual “Emissions Gap” report. To keep the 1.5°C target alive, nations must slash emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 – yet emissions continue to climb, hitting record highs last year. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters at the report’s launch. “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly intense climate disasters worldwide,” Guterres said. “People are paying a terrible price.” Despite a year marked by devastating hurricanes, droughts and floods, no country implemented policies “with significant implications for global emissions in 2023,” UNEP found. “Another year has passed without action, and that means we’re worse off,” said Ann Olhoff, the report’s lead scientific editor. “The findings are fairly similar to last year, apart from emissions still going up.” Twenty-nine years after international climate talks began, the sum total of global climate pledges – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would allow temperatures to rise by a “catastrophic” 2.6°C, even if fully implemented, according to the report. Most major economies, including many G20 nations, are failing to meet even these insufficient commitments – let alone achieve the 42% emissions cuts needed. By mid-century, current trajectories point to warming well above 1.5°C, with up to a one-in-three chance of exceeding 2°C. The report warns that warming is expected to intensify beyond 2100, as CO2 emissions are not projected to reach net zero under existing scenarios. Each year of delay makes the task harder: Global emissions must now fall 7.5% every year until 2035 to keep warming to 1.5 C. For a 2 C limit, yearly cuts of 4% are needed. “If we procrastinate, that figure will obviously grow with every year of inaction,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “Nations must show a massive increase in ambition in these new NDCs, accompanied by rapid delivery, or the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C will be dead within a few years.” With nations due to update their climate pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year, UNEP says this represents a make-or-break moment. The new commitments must deliver what the agency calls a “quantum leap” to avoid planetary catastrophe. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era,” Andersen said. “We may not make it. But the only certain path to failure is not trying.” Going backwards The Emissions Gap remains unchanged since UNEP issued the last edition of its annual report last year. In a year that demanded cuts, emissions instead rose 1.3% to record levels in 2023, with coal accounting for 65% of the increase, according to the International Energy Agency. While record deployments of renewable energy, nuclear power and electric vehicles helped curb emissions growth, they couldn’t keep pace with rising energy demand and the impact of severe droughts on hydropower generation. Without this rapid expansion of clean technologies, emissions growth would have been three times higher, according to IEA data. Only one pathway identified in the report halts warming beyond 2100: All 107 countries with net-zero pledges must deliver on their promises and quickly put their plans into action. This could cap warming at 1.9°C, but UNEP has “low” confidence countries will follow through. Countries accounting for 82% of global emissions have made net-zero promises, but progress has stalled. “Current policies, conditional NDCs, unconditional NDCs – in any of these scenarios, whether emissions peak and fall a small amount or plateau, all of them represent a lost decade,” said Neil Grant, a lead author of the report. “Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change.” G20 nations must ‘do the heavy lifting’ Just six countries accounted for 63% of global emissions in 2023, with the least developed nations contributing only 3%, highlighting particular concerns about inaction among major emitters, especially the G20. “We identified very few newly adopted policies [by G20 nations] underpinned by quantitative assessments that deliver considerable emission reduction impact by 2030 or beyond. This is very worrying,” said Takeshi Kuramochi, lead author of the G20 section of the report. “It’s been a calm past 12 months, in a negative way.” Seven G20 members – China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey – have not yet reached peak emissions, a pre-requisite to achieving net zero. For G20 nations that have peaked, including the US, EU, Russia and Canada, “their rate of decarbonization would need to accelerate – in some cases dramatically – after 2030 to achieve their net-zero goals unless they accelerate action now,” UNEP found. “We must remember that 1.5°C is not an on-off switch that will plunge the world into an era of darkness and chaos,” Andersen said. “We are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved.” “The G20, particularly the members that dominate emissions, need to do the heavy lifting,” Andersen added. “Climate crunch time is here.” ‘Wartime’ mobilization is required to keep 1.5C alive While there is “no chance” of limiting global warming to 1.5C under current policies, UNEP insists the target remains “technically possible” – but only through “immediate global mobilization on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” A sweeping transformation of energy, transport, and land use could cut 31 gigatonnes of CO2 annually – equivalent to 52% of global emissions – through existing technologies costing less than $200 per ton of carbon, UNEP estimates. Solar and wind energy alone could deliver 27% of required emissions cuts by 2030, rising to 38% by 2035, while forest protection and restoration could contribute another 20%. Together, these measures would deliver the steep emissions cuts scientists say are needed to keep 1.5C alive. “Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar power and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors,” Andersen said. “This is a gargantuan task that requires global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. But it does, for the moment, remain technically possible.” The price tag for this transformation is steep but achievable, according to UNEP. Annual investment in mitigation measures must increase six-fold to 11.7$ trillion per year by 2035 – approximately 10% of the global economy. “These investments don’t even take all the benefits into account and the avoided damages,” Olhoff said. “It would be very costly not to invest in a green transition.” This is a developing story and will be updated. Image Credits: Joanne Francis. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts This site uses cookies to help give you the best experience on our website. Cookies enable us to collect information that helps us personalise your experience and improve the functionality and performance of our site. By continuing to read our website, we assume you agree to this, otherwise you can adjust your browser settings. Please read our cookie and Privacy Policy. Our Cookies and Privacy Policy
World Faces ‘Catastrophic’ 3.1C Warming after Year of Zero Climate Action 24/10/2024 Stefan Anderson No policies with “significant implications for global emissions” were implemented worldwide in 2023. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions remain catastrophically off track, with current policies putting the world on course for a 3.1°C temperature rise by century’s end, the UN Environment Programme warned Thursday in its annual “Emissions Gap” report. To keep the 1.5°C target alive, nations must slash emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 – yet emissions continue to climb, hitting record highs last year. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told reporters at the report’s launch. “The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly intense climate disasters worldwide,” Guterres said. “People are paying a terrible price.” Despite a year marked by devastating hurricanes, droughts and floods, no country implemented policies “with significant implications for global emissions in 2023,” UNEP found. “Another year has passed without action, and that means we’re worse off,” said Ann Olhoff, the report’s lead scientific editor. “The findings are fairly similar to last year, apart from emissions still going up.” Twenty-nine years after international climate talks began, the sum total of global climate pledges – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – would allow temperatures to rise by a “catastrophic” 2.6°C, even if fully implemented, according to the report. Most major economies, including many G20 nations, are failing to meet even these insufficient commitments – let alone achieve the 42% emissions cuts needed. By mid-century, current trajectories point to warming well above 1.5°C, with up to a one-in-three chance of exceeding 2°C. The report warns that warming is expected to intensify beyond 2100, as CO2 emissions are not projected to reach net zero under existing scenarios. Each year of delay makes the task harder: Global emissions must now fall 7.5% every year until 2035 to keep warming to 1.5 C. For a 2 C limit, yearly cuts of 4% are needed. “If we procrastinate, that figure will obviously grow with every year of inaction,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. “Nations must show a massive increase in ambition in these new NDCs, accompanied by rapid delivery, or the Paris Agreement goal of holding global warming to 1.5°C will be dead within a few years.” With nations due to update their climate pledges ahead of COP30 in Brazil next year, UNEP says this represents a make-or-break moment. The new commitments must deliver what the agency calls a “quantum leap” to avoid planetary catastrophe. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is one of the greatest asks of the modern era,” Andersen said. “We may not make it. But the only certain path to failure is not trying.” Going backwards The Emissions Gap remains unchanged since UNEP issued the last edition of its annual report last year. In a year that demanded cuts, emissions instead rose 1.3% to record levels in 2023, with coal accounting for 65% of the increase, according to the International Energy Agency. While record deployments of renewable energy, nuclear power and electric vehicles helped curb emissions growth, they couldn’t keep pace with rising energy demand and the impact of severe droughts on hydropower generation. Without this rapid expansion of clean technologies, emissions growth would have been three times higher, according to IEA data. Only one pathway identified in the report halts warming beyond 2100: All 107 countries with net-zero pledges must deliver on their promises and quickly put their plans into action. This could cap warming at 1.9°C, but UNEP has “low” confidence countries will follow through. Countries accounting for 82% of global emissions have made net-zero promises, but progress has stalled. “Current policies, conditional NDCs, unconditional NDCs – in any of these scenarios, whether emissions peak and fall a small amount or plateau, all of them represent a lost decade,” said Neil Grant, a lead author of the report. “Winning slowly is the same as losing when it comes to climate change.” G20 nations must ‘do the heavy lifting’ Just six countries accounted for 63% of global emissions in 2023, with the least developed nations contributing only 3%, highlighting particular concerns about inaction among major emitters, especially the G20. “We identified very few newly adopted policies [by G20 nations] underpinned by quantitative assessments that deliver considerable emission reduction impact by 2030 or beyond. This is very worrying,” said Takeshi Kuramochi, lead author of the G20 section of the report. “It’s been a calm past 12 months, in a negative way.” Seven G20 members – China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey – have not yet reached peak emissions, a pre-requisite to achieving net zero. For G20 nations that have peaked, including the US, EU, Russia and Canada, “their rate of decarbonization would need to accelerate – in some cases dramatically – after 2030 to achieve their net-zero goals unless they accelerate action now,” UNEP found. “We must remember that 1.5°C is not an on-off switch that will plunge the world into an era of darkness and chaos,” Andersen said. “We are operating on a sliding scale of disruption. Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved.” “The G20, particularly the members that dominate emissions, need to do the heavy lifting,” Andersen added. “Climate crunch time is here.” ‘Wartime’ mobilization is required to keep 1.5C alive While there is “no chance” of limiting global warming to 1.5C under current policies, UNEP insists the target remains “technically possible” – but only through “immediate global mobilization on a scale and pace only ever seen following a global conflict.” A sweeping transformation of energy, transport, and land use could cut 31 gigatonnes of CO2 annually – equivalent to 52% of global emissions – through existing technologies costing less than $200 per ton of carbon, UNEP estimates. Solar and wind energy alone could deliver 27% of required emissions cuts by 2030, rising to 38% by 2035, while forest protection and restoration could contribute another 20%. Together, these measures would deliver the steep emissions cuts scientists say are needed to keep 1.5C alive. “Nations can deliver the cuts needed by investing heavily in solar power and wind energy, in forests, in reforming the buildings, transport and industry sectors,” Andersen said. “This is a gargantuan task that requires global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before. But it does, for the moment, remain technically possible.” The price tag for this transformation is steep but achievable, according to UNEP. Annual investment in mitigation measures must increase six-fold to 11.7$ trillion per year by 2035 – approximately 10% of the global economy. “These investments don’t even take all the benefits into account and the avoided damages,” Olhoff said. “It would be very costly not to invest in a green transition.” This is a developing story and will be updated. Image Credits: Joanne Francis. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts