Most countries’ climate action plans refer to the health benefits of adaptation and mitigation strategies, such as reduced air pollution, but few actually track them. And as World Environment Day is observed Thursday, global climate commitments remain extraordinarily weak. 

Only 21 countries out of the 195 parties to the UN Paris Agreement have submitted updated national climate action plans (Nationally Determined Commitments) through the year 2035 – nearly four months after the plans were due. 

This is according to the latest report by Climate Action Tracker, which monitors submission of the reports to UN Climate Change.

Of those few countries that have submitted, most refer to the health benefits of mitigation strategies, such as reduced air pollution in general terms, while others make reference to health adaptation strategies. 

But there continues to be a lack of clear tracking systems to monitor progress in achieving the desired health outcomes, according to a recent analysis by the Global Climate and Health Alliance (GCHA), a global network that mobilises the health community towards climate action.

The GCHA looked in depth at 11 countries’ national climate plans in different regions of the world and at diverse economic development levels – from Botswana to Panama, Japan and the United Kingdom.

The assessment looked at a set of eight criteria, including references to health benefits from mitigation efforts, related financial commitments, and health sector adaptation initiatives.

Under the Paris Agreement, all countries are required to develop NDCs, which outline steps to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts. These plans are updated every five years.

This year, governments are submitting their third round, which details emission reduction targets for 2035.

As of the February 10 deadline, only 13 of the 195 parties to the agreement had submitted their 2035 NDC targets.

Since then, there have been just eight additional submissions, bringing the total to 21.

Ambitious NDC commitments would help health 

Notably, most national pledges acknowledge the health benefits of mitigation strategies aimed at improving air quality. However, only the United Kingdom’s NDC includes specific monitoring efforts for air quality. 

Some recent submissions are noteworthy for the health benefits that they may reap – even if they are not explicitly measured at all. For instance, Kenya’s NDC, submnitted in May, includes an ambitious pathway to 100% renewable energy and a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, even though the country contributes less than 0.1% to global GHGs.  

Those commitments would reduce the health impacts from outdoor air pollution, related to vehicle emissions as well as unsustainable waste burning, including of plastics.  Improved access to electricity at household level would similarly reduce air pollution from biomass burning very significantly. But air pollution is not mentioned as a benefit of the NDC actions. 

Weak commitments contrast with temperature rises 

The NDCs are all the more critical this year, insofar as in 2024, global surface temperatures surpassed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, making it the warmest year on record. Several multilateral studies have warned that surpassing this mark would have catastrophic effects on both human health and the environment. However, by scaling up interventions, up to 1.9 million premature deaths could be prevented annually.

Although CO2 has been the primary focus of climate mitigation efforts, experts at the Second WHO Global Air Pollution and Health Conference in Cartagena, Colombia, urged the adoption of integrated strategies to also target super pollutants, which significantly contribute to global warming, but also disappear from the atmosphere within weeks or a few years, as compared to the centuries for CO2. Reducing emissions of super pollutant gases and particles, including methane, black carbon and ozone, can thus yield quick gains for slowing temperature rise. 

“These actions involve setting targets to reduce climate impacts on health and highlighting the co-benefits of climate action, such as in the forestry, water, and energy sectors. These would help facilitate inter-ministerial coordination, which remains a challenge in many countries’ climate plans,” Fabio Aleina, a senior consultant on climate adaptation and co-author of the GCHA report, told Health Policy Watch in an interview.

Action to mitigate air pollution

Last year, the first-ever UN Climate Change global stocktake, a process to evaluate parties’ collective progress towards the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, called for more ambitious emission reduction targets  spread out across the economy.

Recent NDC submissions such as Kenya’s show that countries are indeed diversifying strategies to curb emissions, including commitments to more sustainable management of waste, waters, forest and ecosystems, which can yield multiple cascading health benefits over time. 

The plan aims to increase tree cover through afforestation while reducing deforestation to curb emissions from the dominant AFOLU (combined agriculture, land use change and forestry) sector, as well as integrating other nature-based solutions for better ecosystem management.

The UK government has also placed significant focus on decarbonising the transport sector, a step expected to result in significant reductions in air pollution. For its industries, the UK will continue using the Best Available Techniques (BAT) framework to ensure the adoption of sustainable methods that reduce pollution to air, water and soil.

Brazil, the host of COP30 in November, places a strong focus on combating deforestation as a central strategy in its NDC. This has direct implications for reducing wildfires linked to widespread destruction of natural ecosystems, indigenous communities, and related livelihoods, as well as big surges in hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular illness. 

Brazil’s climate plan also mentions transitioning away from fossil fuels. But it remains silent about new oil extraction plans, muddying its climate pledges with recent approvals for new offshore oil drilling near the sensitive Amazon River mouth, despite warnings from expert advisors.  The Senate recently passed legislation, dubbed the “devastation bill”, that severely curtails the Environment Ministry’s regulatory powers by allowing companies to self-license projects, or avoid environmental reviews altogether, including for road and dam construction.

The Brazilian NDC also lacks explicit reaffirmation of a zero deforestation by 2030 pledge, that was a hallmark of the 2021 UN Climate Conference (COP26).

Other nations take varied approaches 

New Zealand’s climate plan addresses several super pollutants, but its emission reduction target of 51–55% below gross 2005 levels by 2035 has been described as “shockingly unambitious,” as it only represents a 1% increase from its 2030 goal.

Japan remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels for electricity, which increases air pollution risks. In 2021, 80,000 deaths were attributed to air pollution (PM2.5) in Japan, with fossil fuels contributing to 31% of these deaths.

The United Arab Emirates NDC enhances transparency, through the development of a national monitoring system for greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Panama’s NDC emphasises renewable energy and active transportation, while Uruguay’s climate plan highlights fiscal incentives to promote electric mobility and sustainable transport.

In North America, Canada, an early mover towards the phase out of coal-fired electricity by 2030, is implementing regulatory measures to make its fuel less polluting and ensure a growing supply of zero-emission vehicles. 

The United States’ climate plans also showed a commitment to significantly cut emissions, including methane reductions and other super pollutants.

However, the US commitment to international climate agreements has seen a 180 degree about-face under new President Donald Trump, whose “drill baby drill” slogan has become a rallying cry for the fossil fuel industry.  On his first day in office, Trump issued an executive order to initiate the process of withdrawing the US from the 2015 Paris Agreement, that sent the 1.5C° benchmark for limiting global warming.

The outlook for climate action is notably more positive for its northern neighbor under Canada’s newly-elected Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Even so, the broader emission reduction targets of the NDCs submitted so far fall short of the goal to limit global warming, with the UK as the exception, as its target is deemed compatible with the 1.5°C limit.

“What makes the UK’s approach worth emulating by other high-emitting countries is its top-down approach. This collaboration is essential, as health outcomes and indicators can vary from one part of the country to another, making it important to involve local governments in aligning strategies with these indicators,” says Aleina. For instance, local authorities in the UK work with the government to ensure that legal limits for pollutants like nitrogen dioxide are met.

Growing climate finance gap

The World Bank estimates that halving the global population exposed to average annual PM2.5 levels above 25 micrograms/cubic meter of air (25µg/m3) by 2040 would require increased annual investments in clean air from $8.5 billion in 2020 to $13.9 billion in 2040. That would save some two million lives annually from outdoor air pollution in the worst polluted cities and locations on earth. The WHO guideline limit is 5 µg/m3.

However, financial commitments to climate action have been disappointing over the years, with the US – one of the major contributors to climate finance – exiting key climate agreements, further straining resources.This reduction in funding particularly affects countries’ conditional climate targets, which are emission reduction efforts dependent on external financial support.

“The US exit could have a significant impact,” says Aleina. Notably, in 2018, following US President Donald Trump’s first attempt to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the International Energy Agency reported a 1.7% increase in global CO2 emissions from energy-related sources, reversing three years of consistent declines.

“Without the corresponding financial commitment, countries might continue to struggle to improve their climate ambition,” says Aleina.

With nearly 90% of the parties to the Paris Agreement yet to submit their national climate plans, United Nations (UN) climate chief Simon Stiell has extended the deadline to September, just ahead of the NDC Synthesis Report, which will be released before COP30 in Belem, Brazil. 

“From the conversations I’ve been having, countries are taking this extremely seriously,” said Stiell  in February. “So, taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are first-rate makes sense.”

Image Credits: Markus Winkler/Unsplash, Climate Tracker , Global Climate and Health Alliance , Kenya NDC – 2031-2035, EC/Copernicus , Dirk Erasmus/Unsplash , Carbon Brief .