A new report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warns that the Asian continent is the world’s most disaster-prone region, and extreme heat is becoming more severe. 

The warming trend in Asia has nearly doubled over the last three decades, the UN’s meteorological agency reports. In its State of the Climate in Asia 2023, the WMO shows how this has happened largely in the north in places like Siberia, China and Japan. 

Despite the growing health risks posed by extreme heat, heat-related mortality is frequently not reported. While extreme heat is becoming more severe, the highest number of casualties and economic losses were caused by floods and storms. 

Warmer seas, heavier rainfall 

Warming of the upper ocean (0m–700m) is particularly strong in the North-Western Arabian Sea, the Philippine Sea and the seas east of Japan – more than three times faster than the global average. Warmer oceans tend to make cyclones more powerful and unpredictable. Cyclone Mocha, which hit Bangladesh and Myanmar last year, was the strongest cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in the last decade. It touched speeds of 280 km per hour and rapidly intensified in one day. 

While the number of named tropical cyclones, 17, over the western North Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, was below average, the rainfall in China, Japan, the Philippines, and the Republic of Korea was record-breaking. Hong Kong recorded an hourly rainfall total of 158.1 mm on 7 September 2023, the highest since records began in 1884.

Several stations in Vietnam observed record-breaking daily rainfall amounts in October. In West Asia too there was heavy rainfall and flooding in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. 

Of 79 disasters analysed, most were related to flood and storm events, with more than 2,000 fatalities and nine million people directly affected

“The report’s conclusions are sobering. Many countries in the region experienced their hottest year on record in 2023, along with a barrage of extreme conditions, from droughts and heatwaves to floods and storms. Climate change exacerbated the frequency and severity of such events, profoundly impacting societies, economies, and, most importantly, human lives and the environment that we live in,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

The report covers a vast geographical expanse, from the Arabian desert to the Barents Sea in the Arctic Circle. This sea is identified as a climate change hotspot. Higher ocean temperature impacts the sea-ice cover which melts and in turn, increases temperatures further because darker sea surfaces can absorb more solar energy than the highly reflective sea-ice. The reduction in sea ice has led to controversial moves by several countries (Russia, Norway and others) to exploit the region particularly as it allows for easier shipping routes. 

Particularly high average temperatures were recorded from western Siberia to central Asia and from eastern China to Japan. Source: WMO State of the Climate in Asia 2023

Extreme heat becoming severe 

The heat, however, is a bigger challenge than water-related hazards. Overall, Asia’s annual mean, near-surface temperature last year was the second highest on record at 0.91°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 1.87° above the 1961-1990 average. The global average temperature last year was 1.45°C above the pre-industrial era, very close to the 1.5° threshold recognised by the Paris Agreement. However, for Asia, WMO doesn’t use that pre-Industrialisation baseline because of insufficient data. 

Many parts of Asia experienced extreme heat events and record-breaking heat in 2023. Japan experienced its hottest summer on record. China experienced 14 high-temperature events in summer, with six stations breaking their temperature records. In India, severe heatwaves in April and June resulted in about 110 reported fatalities due to heatstroke. However, this is likely to be an underestimation as heat-related deaths are frequently not reported. 

Tackle climate change and air pollution together

WMO’s report terms Asia the world’s most diaster-prone region. Making many communities here a lot more vulnerable is the high level of air pollution across the continent. In South Asia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India are the three most polluted countries in the world, and global warming and pollution is linked, officials say. 

“Air pollution and climate change are interrelated in that if you reduce greenhouse gas emissions, then you also help tackle air pollution. There is also a close link between heatwaves, ozone pollution and poor air quality. So the message is that we need to tackle both together,” a WMO spokesperson told Health Policy Watch. 

At the heart of Asia lies the largest volume of ice outside the polar regions. The Tibetan Plateau contains approximately 100,000 square kilometres of glaciers. Most have been retreating for decades and at an accelerating rate. Melting glaciers threaten future water security

Twenty out of 22 observed glaciers in the High Mountain Asia region showed continued mass loss. One of the glaciers, Urumqi Glacier No 1, in Eastern Tien Shan, recorded its second-highest negative mass balance during 2022-23 since measurements began in 1959.

Permafrost, which is soil that continuously remains below 0° for two or more years, is thawing rapidly across northern Asia. As it melts, it can release methane a greenhouse gas that traps more heat in the short term than carbon dioxide. 

Overview of reported disasters in 2023 associated with hydro-meteorological hazards in the Asia region. Source: WMO State of the Climate in Asia 2023

Call for urgent, tailored action

With emissions of greenhouse gases not being cut fast enough, the world is almost certainly going to cross the threshold of 1.5° above pre-industrial times. Beyond that limit, climate scientists project more intense, frequent, and unpredictable extreme weather events with devastating consequences on life. 

The WMO has flagged an “urgent” need for what it calls tailored support and services to effectively mitigate rising disaster risks. What this means is more than general weather forecasts, the spokesperson told HPW. An example would be a heat-health early warning aimed at health professionals, or an impact-based forecast not just of how much rainfall but what the impact will be in terms of flooding in an urban area.

WGIHR co-chairs Ashley Bloomfield, Abdullah Assiri and Dr Tedros

The penultimate meeting of a World Health Organization (WHO) working group to amend the International Health Regulations (IHR) began in Geneva on Monday amid stakeholder praise and criticism for the latest 64-page draft.

The IHR are legally binding and sets out countries’ rights and obligations in handling public health events and emergencies that have the potential to cross borders. But they were found lacking during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Working Group on Amendments to the IHR (WGIHR) has been considering over 300 amendments over the past two years.

WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that the draft “reflects the patience, flexibility and commitment” of the WGIHR.

He also expressed appreciation for the inclusion “pandemic emergency” within the process of declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).  Amazingly, the current  IHR neither mention nor define a pandemic.

However, the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations (IFPMA) described the “pandemic emergency” along with several other new definitions as “excessively vague”,  which made it “very difficult for industry to assess the overall instrument”. 

Other terms condemned for vagueness include “early action alerts”, stages in the PHEIC process, and “references to health products”, said the IFPMA’s Grega Kumer.

The IFPMA also believes the process of declaring the early action alerts and PHEIC leaves room for “discretion and interpretation” instead of being “based on science and evidence-based criteria”. 

Article 13 attracts the most attention

The IHR’s amended  Article 13, dealing with the “public health response, including access to health products”, attracted the most attention from stakeholders.

Knowledge Ecology International (KEI) welcomed the” transparency mandate” contained in Article 13 (9C). 

This calls on state parties to publish “relevant terms of government-funded research agreements for health products needed to respond to a public health emergency of international concern as well as information where relevant on pricing policies regarding these products and technologies to support equitable access”, said KEI’s Thiru Balasubramaniam.

“Article 13.7 envisions that WHO plays a coordinating role among state parties during public health emergencies of international concern. This coordinating role involves the facilitation of equitable access to health products, including through technology transfer on mutually agreed terms,” added Balasubramaniam.

KEI suggested two options to encourage technology transfer and know-how to facilitate the development of drugs, vaccines and other countermeasures. 

One would “create incentives for parties to share some rights acquired from publicly funded R&D or procurements in a reciprocal manner with parties that also share”. The other would “provide money or other incentives to acquire rights to patented inventions, know-how and other inputs from private rights holders”.

The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) described as “commendable” that Article 13 made provision for state parties to allocate sustainable financing, but added that “they should have the support of the WHO in building, strengthening and maintaining core capacities” and in public health emergency, this should extend to “local production capacity development”. 

“Equally, in this article, we would like to see broader requirements for embedding equitable access terms in public funding contracts, including data sharing, affordable and sustainable pricing, manufacturing scale-up and technology transfers,” said CEPI.

Third World Network (TWN), an alliance of non-profit organisations from the Global South, welcomed the proposed language on WHO’s role in equitable access to deliver health products, but said “specific methods for achieving this remain absent, particularly in Article 13.7.”

TWN also that Article 4.2 bis and 13.1 shift the “implementation burden to state parties, contradicting the common but differentiated responsibilities principle and abandoning support for developing countries”.

Health Action International’s Senior Policy Advisor, Jaume Vidal, condemned attempts by some countries to “water down and remove suggested amendments seeking to scale up production, diversify manufacturing and guarantee a steady supply of health technologies”.

The IFPMA said that some recommendations in Article 13 lack balance and pre-empt the outcome of the pandemic agreement negotiations, “in particular, the WHO-coordinated mechanisms and networks”.

Threat of avian flu

Although the WGIHR meeting is set to close on Friday to enable the intergovernmental negotiation body (INB) on the pandemic agreement to resume next week, Tedros encouraged the group to “take more sessions together if you need them”.

But WGIHR co-chair Dr Ashley Bloomfield urged member states to “work towards Friday this week as a firm deadline”. 

“We are all aware the INB process remains live with another two weeks of intense negotiations scheduled following this meeting,” said Bloomfield. “We continue to work closely with the INB co-chairs and the Bureau to ensure our work is aligned.

“One reason it is important for us to complete our work this week is so that there can be a full focus on the INB negotiations in the following two weeks to maximise the chance of success in that crucial process.”

Bloomfield added: “You will all be aware of the growing concern about the threat of H5N1 bird flu highlighted by the WHO just last week. We have the opportunity to ensure that the world is better prepared both individual countries and collectively to address that thread through strengthening core capacities in all states parties.”

World Bank president Ajay Banga (centre) addresses an event to announce the new focus. He is flanked by Shakuntala Santhiran and WHO’s Dr Tedros.

The World Bank aims to support countries to deliver “quality, affordable health services” to 1.5 billion people by 2030, it announced during its ‘spring’ meeting in Washington this week.

It will expand its current focus from maternal and child health to include “coverage throughout a person’s lifetime, including non-communicable diseases”; hard-to-reach areas, including remote villages, cities, and countries; and working with governments to “cut unnecessary fees and other financial barriers to health care”, the Bank announced on Thursday.

“The Bank has been working in 100 countries for a while on a maternal and neonatal effort to improve the delivery of care to women and young babies,” said World Bank president Ajay Banga at an event to announce the Bank’s new focus. 

“We want to widen our aperture to include the diseases across adults, adolescents and old age.”

Banga said that the Bank intended to “really reach them…  actually touching the person with a medical appointment, either physical or telehealth, working on this expanded range of noncommunicable diseases, that’s the effort we’re going to try and put in by now in 2030”. 

World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that around 4.5 billion people lacked adequate health coverage, while two billion face financial hardship trying to get health services, some “descending into poverty” as a result.

The task is complicated by what the Bank describes as “intertwined challenges, such as climate change, pandemics, conflicts, societal ageing, and a projected shortfall of 10 million healthcare workers by 2030”.

How will this be achieved?

“A lot of hard work, a lot of knowledge, a lot of financing, and a lot of partnerships,” is how the aim will be realised, said Banga.

“Financing is the obvious one. We’re a money bank and a knowledge bank. But even the money we can put to work will never be enough. We’re talking about putting to work 50% more money per year than what we used to spend on health care, pre- the pandemic,” he said.

But governments and the private sector would also have to invest in the effort.

Low-income countries spend an average of $21 per person, per year on health care. 

“That’s not going to get to health care workers in remote areas. So we have to give them share financing, concessional and grant financing,” said Banga.

Middle-income countries have more money available, but “may not have the right regulatory policies to create the multiplier that you want to create” – which could be done through private sector involvement.

“We can help with incentivizing them to create the right regulatory platforms and the right policies.”

This could involve private sector involvement in manufacturing essential medicines, or fortifying basic foods with vitamins.

Discussions with countries would involve identifying what they need to do to break through their barriers to deliver their share of the 1.5 billion – skills, infrastructure, medicines.

“We bring a diversification of knowledge. We understand water, we understand climate, we understand agriculture. We understand how those connect to health challenges.

“We can bring that knowledge as a partner, not just our financing, not just our ability to advise governments on regulatory policy, but our ability to help understand the intersections between these different causes of healthcare problems in the intertwined challenges that we are going through,” Banga concluded.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has published a new technical report including updated terminology to describe pathogens that are transmitted through the air, following “an extensive, multi-year, collaborative effort”.

It follows confusion and contestation between scientists during the COVID-19 pandemic because of the “varying terminologies” and  “gaps in common understanding”, said the WHO.

These “contributed to challenges in public communication and efforts to curb the transmission of the pathogen”.

However, a number of scientists called out the WHO itself for being slow to acknowledge that SARS-CoV2 could be transmitted in the air.

“Together with a very diverse range of leading public health agencies and experts across multiple disciplines, we are pleased to have been able to address this complex and timely issue and reach a consensus,” said Dr Jeremy Farrar, WHO’s Chief Scientist. 

“The agreed terminology for pathogens that transmit through the air will help set a new path for research agendas and implementation of public health interventions to identify, communicate and respond to existing and new pathogens.”

Experts and four major public health agencies – the Africa Centres for Disease Control Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – were consulted between 2021 and 2023.

Away with ‘aerosols’ and ‘droplets’

Instead of ‘aerosols’ and ‘droplets’, the report uses the new descriptor, ‘infectious respiratory particles’ (IRPs), describing these as existing “on a continuous spectrum of sizes, and no single cut-off points should be applied to distinguish smaller from larger particles”. 

This facilitates a “away from the dichotomy of previously used terms: ‘aerosols’ (generally smaller particles) and ‘droplets’ (generally larger particles)”.

These IRPs are transmitted by people infected by a respiratory pathogen “through their mouth or nose by breathing, talking, singing, spitting, coughing or sneezing”. 

‘Through the air’

Under the umbrella of ‘through the air’ transmission, the report advises the use of two descriptors. The first is “airborne transmission or inhalation” for cases when IRPs are expelled into the air and inhaled by another person, who could be at quite a distance from the infected person.

The second is “direct deposition” for cases when IRPs are expelled into the air from an infectious person, and are then directly deposited on the exposed mouth, nose or eyes of another person nearby.

The pathogens covered include those that cause respiratory infections, such as COVID-19, influenza, measles, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and tuberculosis.

Image Credits: Towfiqu Barbhuiya/ Unsplash.

A resident of Ifakara tucked into a mosquito net

Bed nets treated with an additional insecticide are between 20% and 50% more effective in preventing malaria than those treated with the standard single pyrethroid insecticide, according to pilots in 17 sub-Saharan Africa. 

The New Nets Project successfully piloted nets impregnated with a new generation pyrrole insecticide in combination with pyrethroid in response to growing resistance by the malaria-carrying Anopheles mosquitoes to pyrethroid.

Between 2019 and 2022, the New Nets Project supported the deployment of 38.4 million nets across sub-Saharan Africa. 

In parallel, the Global Fund and US President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) supported the deployment of millions of additional nets under an internal initiative. As a result, 56 million mosquito nets were introduced in 17 countries across sub-Saharan Africa. 

Two clinical trials and five pilot studies, delivered through the New Nets Project found the new nets could improve malaria control by approximately 20-50% in countries reporting insecticide resistance in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to standard nets. 

The intervention has the potential to avert about 13 million malaria cases and save 24,600 lives, according to its funders, Unitaid and the Global Fund, and the lead implementer, the Innovative Vector Control Consortium (IVCC).

The epidemiological evidence built throughout the project led the World Health Organization (WHO) to publish new recommendations supporting pyrethroid-chlorfenapyr nets instead of pyrethroid-only nets in countries facing pyrethroid resistance.

“We are delighted to see that the dual active ingredient insecticide-treated nets have demonstrated exceptional impact against malaria,” said Peter Sands, executive director of the Global Fund.

Unitaid’s executive director, Dr. Philippe Duneton, said “The New Nets Project has made a massive contribution to malaria control efforts, helping to accelerate the introduction of next-generation bed nets – a critically important tool for reducing malaria cases and deaths. “

Global burden of malaria. Most DALYs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Malaria is a life-threatening infectious disease with an estimated 249 million cases and 608 000 deaths in 2022, according to the World Malaria Report. It is present in 85 countries, with 95% of cases in the African region. Children under the age of five account for as much as about 80% of malaria deaths.

While some malaria cases are mild, others prove deadly, progressing to severe illness and death within 24 hours. Symptoms range from fever, chills and headache to seizures, confusion and difficulty breathing.

As it is transmitted through mosquito bites, much of the malaria control efforts go into vector control, that is protection against mosquitoes through insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying to prevent mosquitoes from staying on the house roof or walls.

Yet, as malaria-carrying mosquitoes adapt to insecticides, a new chemical is likely only a short-term solution. Malaria control requires broad action with multiple solutions implemented. Next to bed nets, many public and private actors concentrate on vaccines, treatments, preventive doses for risk groups and other measures.

 “The findings of the New Nets Project demonstrate the value of investments into state-of-the-art tools in the fight against malaria. We always say that there is no silver bullet to eliminating malaria and we cannot rely on single interventions but rather invest in a suite of tools, which when combined, will have the biggest impact on defeating this disease,” said Dr. Michael Charles, CEO of the RBM Partnership to End Malaria.

Image Credits: Peter Mgongo, IHME.

UNICEF screening for malnutrition in the River Nile state

A year into one of the most brutal conflicts in decades, the war in Sudan has triggered the world’s largest displacement crisis and left the country’s healthcare system in tatters.

Nearly 25 million people need immediate humanitarian assistance, according to the United Nations (UN) and over  18 million people face acute food insecurity, with the World Food Programme (WFP) warning that the situation could quickly slip into “catastrophic” food insecurity levels.

In light of this accelerating humanitarian crisis, governments, donors, and aid organizations met in Paris on the first anniversary of the war, aiming to “break the silence surrounding this conflict and mobilize the international community,” said French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said in his opening remarks. 

The Sudanese people have suffered not only from the catastrophe of war, but also from international “indifference,” said Séjourné, while international organizations struggled to meet key funding needs.

“The scale of this catastrophe far outstrips the international community’s attention,” said World Health Organization (WHO) director-general Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine have garnered most of the international community’s attention, and funding. Only 6% of the UN’s emergency funding appeal was met before the Paris conference. Similarly, only 7% of the $1.4 billion Regional Refugee Response Plan for the Sudan Crisis was funded.

Donors responded to pleas for humanitarian funding, pledging 2.13 billion in aid for Sudan. Top contributors were the European Union (EU), co-sponsors France and Germany, the US and the UK. 

“We can manage together to avoid a terrible famine catastrophe, but only if we get active together now,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said, adding that, in the worst-case scenario, one million people could die of hunger this year.

Tedros echoed this sentiment, calling for access across borders and humanitarian corridors, the cease of attacks on healthcare facilities, funding for both health-related aid and for the UN in general: “This is a health crisis that could reverberate across generations.”

Heavy fighting persists

“People in Sudan are suffering immensely as heavy fighting persists, including bombardments, shelling and ground operations in residential urban areas and in villages, and the health system and basic services have largely collapsed or been damaged by the warring parties,” said Jean Stowell, Medecins sans Frontieres (MSF) head of Sudan mission. 

“Only 20-30% of health facilities remain functional in Sudan, meaning that there is extremely limited availability of health care for people across the country.”

The number of operational healthcare facilities has decreased even further since February 2024. Healthcare facilities themselves have been subject to attacks. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports 62 confirmed attacks, but notes that these numbers are most likely underestimates.

In the 12 months of conflict the warring sides repeatedly and intentionally blocked humanitarian and medical aid. 

A United Nations graphic of the humanitarian crisis in Sudan

The disruption of basic needs has meant that routine immunizations, care for pregnant women and babies, and chronic disease care has “dropped precipitously.” In the Darfur region alone, only 30% of children have received routine immunizations, according to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF.) The country has seen outbreaks of measles, malaria, dengue fever, cholera, and other water-borne illnesses.

Since March, the country has reported over 5,000 cases of measles and 106 deaths. While a nationwide “catch up” measles vaccination campaign was successfully conducted across seven Sudanese states in January 2024, the campaign was unable to cover the Darfur or Kordofan states. Both regions have seen some of the heaviest fighting; no immunizations have been possible since the conflict began. 

Children bear the brunt of these healthcare disruptions. “After 365 days of conflict, the children of Sudan remain at the sharp end of a horrific war,” said UNICEF Deputy Executive Director, Ted Chaiban this week.

“If immediate steps are not taken to halt the violence, facilitate humanitarian access and provide lifesaving aid to those in need, an even worse catastrophe is likely to impact children for many years to come.” 

The threat of malnutrition

Map of Sudan food insecurity
Acute food insecurity in Sudan have soared in the states of Khartoum, Aj Jazirah, and in the Darfur and Kordofan regions

Since violence erupted on 15 April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the country has experienced the highest levels of food insecurity in its history.

More than 710,000 children face severe acute malnutrition, “representing the highest number of people in need of nutrition assistance ever recorded in Sudan,” according to the WHO.

Without humanitarian assistance, the number could rise to 3.5 million children before the end of 2024. These levels surpass the WHO’s emergency thresholds for acute malnutrition, and raise concerns for an expected famine. 

For the first time since the crisis began, displacement in the Darfur states is now being driven by hunger rather than violence, according to the most recent WHO public health situation analysis.

This acceleration of widespread severe food insecurity is most prominent in rural households, where up to 59 percent face moderate or severe food insecurity. The states of West Kordofan, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile have seen the highest levels, according to a new study from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 

The study warns that a famine in Sudan is expected in 2024, particularly in the states of Khartoum, Aj Jazirah, and in the Darfur and Kordofan regions. 

Key food sources disrupted

Map of Sudan displacement
Food insecurity is now driving displacement in the Darfur states

The conflict has affected cereal production in particular, pushing more people into hunger, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 

The situation requires “urgent and at-scale agricultural support ahead of the planting season starting in June,” said Rein Paulsen, Director of the FAO Office of Emergencies and Resilience.

The production output of key cereal crops in 2023 decreased 46 percent from the previous year, and 40 percent below the average from the previous five years.

“This is a very practical manifestation of the impact of clashes, conflict and violence on food production. We clearly have a context that requires urgent and appropriate support. This is why FAO’s interventions are so incredibly important at this point in time,” said Paulsen, who is currently on a field mission to the country to evaluate the food security situation on the ground.

Preventing a looming famine requires an immediate ceasefire, unhindered humanitarian access, and increased support for humanitarian needs, concludes the report. 

Image Credits: UNICEF/UNI530171/Mohamdeen, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Young women at an information and prevention campaign coupled with HIV testing conducted by Alliance Côte d’Ivoire.

As HIV practitioners gather this week in Yaoundé for AFRAVIH, the largest international Francophone conference on HIV/AIDS, and a few months before the 25th International AIDS Conference in Munich, the Vice-Chair of the Global Fund Board urges renewed focus on promoting equity in the fight against HIV particularly for groups that continue to suffer a disproportionate proportion of HIV infections.  

Every step we make in the fight against HIV today is going to be painstaking – we must press harder for progress. In the early years of the fight against this virus, our gains were often rapid and immense because everywhere you looked, there was great need. Those were devastating times: The disease killed three million people in 2000, more than 2.4 million of them in Africa. In the southern tip of the continent, where I am from, the disease was threatening to disintegrate the very fabric of society.  

When the world came together to form partnerships like that of the Global Fund and PEPFAR, it was to challenge the injustice that only the rich could get HIV treatment. It was to stop the possibility of losing a generation of people in many low- and middle-income countries as well as those who were stigmatized and discriminated against because they were considered “different”.  

I am proud to say that we have since come a long way. From less than 50,000 people on treatment for HIV in Africa in 2000 to more than 20 million today, HIV prevention innovations have proliferated, reducing HIV infections dramatically. 

And yet, more than 1.3 million people were infected with the virus in 2022. 

These infections are now happening primarily amongst the most marginalized: Men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs, trans women and sex workers. More so, their voices are increasingly silenced, and they are under constant threat of violence and abuse, as discriminatory legislation directed against LGBTI people is surging around the world. Among these groups, young people aged 15-24 years old bear a disproportionate burden of HIV and are even more vulnerable, facing greater barriers to accessing health services.

Long road remains  

In Francophone African countries (24 countries – 373.3 million people), the HIV burden is lower than in the rest of the continent. However, they accounted for 16% of all new HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa in 2022.

Thanks to concerted efforts from the Global Fund and other partners, the AIDS-related mortality rate in Francophone African countries has declined by 82% between 2000 and 2022. In the same time period, the AIDS-related mortality rate fell by 95% in Burundi, by 91% in Rwanda, and by 90% in Côte d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso. 

The number of new HIV infections in Francophone Africa also decreased, from 325,000 in 2000 to 108,000 in 2022. Between 2001 and 2022, HIV incidence rates declined by 92% in Burundi and Rwanda, and by 91% in Côte d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso. Through Global Fund-supported programs, antiretroviral therapy coverage in Francophone Africa significantly increased from 4% in 2005 to 72% in 2022.

Still, a long road lies ahead to achieve key objectives, such as elimination of AIDS in children. As many Francophone countries still have high rates of vertical transmission, it is of the utmost importance to improve both prevention and pediatric care simultaneously. 

Another key objective is to reduce stigma and discrimination as barriers to HIV prevention, care and treatment. The West Africa regional Stigma Index 2.0 report, based on data from 10,910 people living with HIV in seven countries in the region, found that, among key populations, people who inject drugs and transgender women had the biggest difficulties in accessing testing, care and treatment.  

HIV challenge is one of equity, not science 

The fight against HIV is no longer a challenge of science, but one of equity. For us to accelerate progress once again, we must reclaim that strong spirit of equity that animated us two decades ago. That means focusing on the communities most affected by HIV. In Africa, the focus on adolescent girls and boys is an urgent imperative. 

Adolescent girls play in a school yard at a boarding school in Karongi district in Rwanda. Keeping girls in school greatly reduces their risk of contracting HIV.

Although HIV incidence in adolescent girls and young women has greatly declined in the past decade, 4,000 girls and young women still get infected with HIV every week across the world, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. This is unacceptable. This group continues to suffer conditions that are the most iniquitous of all, with structural injustices that predispose them to diseases. 

If we are to prevent HIV infections in this population, we must bring together diverse partners to invest in long-term efforts to keep girls in schools.

Education turns girls into women with the possibility of more equal opportunities, and protects them from diseases such as HIV. Educated girls register lower rates of teenage pregnancies, sexual violence, early marriages, and ultimately lower HIV infections.

We must also accelerate investments in programs that support comprehensive sexual and reproductive health and rights, particularly for adolescent girls and young women. 

And we must ensure that young women and girls are front and center of projects that seek to engage them. These are some of the goals the Global Fund partnership is seeking to achieve with projects such as Voix EssentiELLES and the HER Voice Fund, which strive to meaningfully engage young women and girls in key health programs and decision-making forums in their communities. 

To end the HIV infections in young women and girls, we must also reduce infections amongst their sexual partners. That means investing in efforts to transform cultural and social norms that predispose men and boys to HIV and that shape their engagement with girls and women in their communities.

It also means that men at high risk of HIV infection are tested and supported to start and stay on treatment. Protecting heterosexual men and boys from HIV can also help protect women and girls from HIV.  

We must seek to renew our focus on promoting equity. We know how to do this. We did it at the turn of the millennium with our drive for equity in HIV treatment. Let us now move forward and end this unfinished fight by reducing HIV infections among the most affected communities. To get there, we can be reenergized by the goals and the unyielding spirit of those golden years of progress in the fight against HIV. 

Bience Gawanas is a Namibian lawyer, advocate and vice-chair of the Global Fund Board. She was appointed as the first Commissioner for Social Affairs by the African Union Assembly of Heads of State and Government, and in her home country of Namibia she served as Public Service Commissioner, Ombudsperson and Special Advisor to the Minister of Health and Social Services and to the Minister of Poverty Eradication and Social Welfare. Gawanas also recently served as the United Nations Under-Secretary General and Special Advisor for Africa.

Image Credits: JB Russel/ The Global Fund/ Panos, Vincent Becker/ The Global Fund.

A medical assistant gives a flu vaccination at the Arzthaus in Zurich, Switzerland, on January 30, 2015. (KEYSTONE/Gaetan Bally)

Amidst the anticipated increase in vaccine-preventable diseases as the global population ages, a first-of-its-kind study has underscored the dual benefits of adult immunization programs.

Beyond saving lives and preventing severe illnesses, the study found these programs offer substantial financial advantages to nations by reducing the need for costly hospitalizations and emergency medical interventions and avoiding expensive productivity losses.

The research, carried out by the Office of Health Economics (OHE) and funded by IFPMA, revealed that adult vaccination programs can deliver a return of up to 19 times the investment. When considering the comprehensive range of benefits and using the most widely accepted valuation approach for each program, these programs translate into billions of dollars in net monetary gains for society. On an individual level, this equates to approximately $4637 in net benefits for a complete vaccination course, according to the study.

“The high-level results are overwhelmingly positive and offer so much value – much more value than the cost of delivering the vaccines,” Prof Lotte Steuten, deputy CEO of OHE and co-author of the report, told Health Policy Watch. “Government decision-makers should rest assured that this is a good idea, high value, and you will get more in return.”

Prof Lotte Steuten, deputy CEO of OHE
Prof Lotte Steuten, deputy CEO of OHE

Promoting Health, Productivity, and Equity

Specifically, the study looks at adult immunization programs targeting four diseases, three life-threatening illnesses and one causing severe pain and hospitalizations: influenza (flu), pneumococcal disease (PD), herpes zoster (HZ), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). These programs were examined across 10 countries: Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Africa, Thailand, and the United States of America.

Steuten said the 10 countries were chosen to provide a balanced mix of societies regarding income level, demographics, disease incidents and availability of adult vaccination programs. She said that the goal was to ensure that decision-makers globally could relate to the list of countries and find resonance with the study’s findings.

The study’s findings came from reviewing published research about how these diseases affect adults and the benefits of vaccines for health, hospitals, and society. The researchers also used a method called health economic modeling to figure out the costs versus the benefits and the money saved by using adult vaccination programs in the 10 countries.

Steuten pointed out two additional important discoveries from the study: first, expanding vaccination programs for adults can help people and their caregivers be more productive. Second, these programs can also promote fairness in health and economics within countries, especially helping those who are at risk or don’t have enough access to healthcare.

“People can stay active, and that’s very important, particularly for an aging society—for people with paid and unpaid work, such as caring for their loved ones or their grandchildren,” Steuten said.

PAHO is supporting vaccinations of indigenous people

Actionable Recommendations

The report was released ahead of World Immunization Week, and its authors noted that the findings support major global initiatives like the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the UN’s Decade of Healthy Aging (2021-2030), and the World Health Organization’s Immunization Agenda 2030. The latter focuses on encouraging vaccinations for all ages, stressing the importance of understanding the benefits of adult immunization and the need for national strategies that cover immunization throughout a person’s life.

The authors provide actionable recommendations for countries based on the study’s results. These recommendations include embracing a prevention-focused approach, allocating sufficient funding to enhance adult immunization programs and accessibility, and further developing the evidence supporting the value of these programs for adults.

“Increasing pressures on ailing healthcare systems, such as aging populations, are driving an urgent need to shift to a prevention-first mindset. Our report sets out a compelling case for adult immunization programs playing a key role in the shift to prevention,” concluded Steuten. “Our findings show that costs are offset multiple times over by benefits to society when governments invest in adult immunization programs.

“These returns are realized through benefits to individuals, families, and communities, providing a clear call to action to countries not already implementing or expanding robust vaccination schedules.”

Image Credits: Unsplash, KEYSTONE/Gaetan Bally, Office of Health Economics, PAHO.

Moderator Sylvie Briand, INB co-chir Precious Matsoso, Ethiopia’s Ambassador Tsegab Kebebew Daka and Australia’s Ambassador Amanda Gorely

“This is probably the most hopeful time in my professional life and the scariest time,” Dr Mike Ryan, the World Health Organization (WHO) Deputy Director General and head of Health Emergencies, told a high-level Geneva audience on Wednesday.

“Hopeful” because there is the possibility of reaching a global agreement on how to tackle future pandemics and “scary” because the world “is tearing itself apart”, Ryan explained at on pandemic agreement negotiations, convened by the Geneva Graduate Institute’s Global Health Centre, the Global Preparedness and Monitoring Board (GPMB) and Pandemic Action Network (PAN).

“What we need is a foundational agreement,” added Ryan, calling on the 194 WHO member states and multilateral organisations to “commit to a collective security arrangement where we can build the future on the strongest foundations; where there are concrete commitments to sharing [and] concrete commitments to equity”.

“Let us choose to put our communities and our populations first, and at least deal with one issue for which we have the capability, the science, the technology, but lack the will so far to put in place,” Ryan appealed to the audience, which included key players in the pandemic agreement negotiations and the process to update the International Health Regulations (IHR).

Dr Mike Ryan, WHO Deputy Director General, delivers the keynote address

‘Negotiators need to be empowered’

Ambassador Amanda Gorely, Australia’s representative to the UN in Geneva, told the meeting: “It was always our expectation that these intensive negotiations would result in a high level agreement on which we could build and that its adoption would not be the end of the process, but the beginning.”

“We have been working closely with our Ethiopian colleagues on Article 12 negotiations, which have been amongst the most intractable in terms of divergent positions,” she added.

“So we really appreciate and acknowledge the fact that the Bureau has been working very hard and indeed circulated a revised text [on Tuesday] night, which we’re all now trying to digest and prepare to engage on in the next session.”

While Australia has generally aligned itself with the Western bloc of countries, it has also played a useful role in trying to resolve differences between the key power blocs, according to insiders.

“Negotiators, who have been listening carefully to each other for many, many months, and know where common ground can be found, need to be empowered to make the agreement that we need to see happen,” said Gorely.

‘Differences are not huge’

Ethiopia’s Ambassador to Geneva, Tsegab Kebebew Daka told the same event that “the differences in the text are not huge”.

“They are mainly differences of ideas and they’re not that many. So we can come to an agreement,” said Daka, a key negotiator for the Africa group.

Like Gorely, he appealed for high-level political engagement to give negotiators “the power and flexibility they need to make compromises and find consensus”. 

“We are at a stage where we need to make decisions. We need to open direct lines of communication and provide political backing to negotiators”

While Daka acknowledged that there were still sticking points, he appealed to member states to take a “holistic view on the entire pandemic agreement” rather than dwelling on “specific articles where we have differences”.

“We need to go back to the mandate. We want to address the issue of equity and we need to have that holistic view. We need to be clear on the individual and collective responsibilities and expectations.”

Letting member states ‘hold the pen’

Meanwhile INB co-chair Precious Matsoso joked that the lessons she had learnt during the process was “how not to do things”.

“I’ll be in trouble for this, my Bureau members are going to kill me but I’ll say it anyway. Sometimes as the Bureau, we think that we must hold the pen but it’s important to sometimes allow the member states to hold the pen,” said Matsoso.

“Let them agree amongst themselves on how to do it. It is that balance because we also, as a Bureau, are looking at the timeline;, we want to meet the deadline.

“Secondly, I’ve also established that sometimes member states avoid talking to each other they avoid negotiating amongst themselves and negotiate through the Bureau. The more they talk amongst themselves, the more they engage each other, the better because that text will be owned by them.”

IHR amendments make progress

PAN executive director Eloise Todd, EU negotiator Americo Beviglia Zampetti and Bangladesh’s Shanchita Haque, with Dr Ashley Bloomfield, co-chair on the WGIHR, projected behind them.

The Working Group on Amendments to the IHR had to shift through 300 proposed amendments to the global rules that govern public health emergencies of international concern, said co-chair Dr Ashley Bloomfield.

Ryan described some of the proposed amendments as “significant improvements” that would have an immediate effect on surveillance and response. 

However, European Union’s negotiator, Minister Counsellor Americo Beviglia Zampetti said the EU would have liked some of the IHR improvements “to be a little bit more ambitious, but nonetheless we are very satisfied with the way the work has been conducted”.

A closing window of opportunity

Professor Suerie Moon, co-director of the Global Health Centre, warned that there was a “closing window of opportunity” to reach a meaningful deal on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response that was more effective and equitable than the status quo during COVID-19. 

“The concept of a political window of opportunity is real. It’s not just an abstract theory,” said Moon. “These windows open, often in response to a crisis, and they close. If you look at the headlines of the news this morning, it’s easy to see why our window of opportunity might be closing. We have in the headlines war, famine, humanitarian catastrophe, climate disasters, inflation, political extremism, and elections, to name just a few. And this is what’s on the minds of heads of state rather than pandemics today.”

Moon added that a meaningful pandemic agreement “cannot be achieved without international cooperation”.

”I would bet every single one of us, both here in the room and online, was deeply and personally affected by the pandemic. And I hope that we as a global community can mobilise the political momentum needed to support our hardworking diplomatic negotiators, many of whom have also joined us today, our hard working Bureau, our hard working Secretariat, all of whom are indeed working very, very hard night and day to close a meaningful deal. “

The South Sudan Minster of Health, Elizabeth Chuei, receives a COVID-19 vaccine at Juba Teaching Hospital in March 2021.

The latest draft of the pandemic agreement, while deferring many operational issues, keeps equity hopes alive in many aspects – including by cementing in-principle agreements on a pathogen access and benefit-sharing (PABS) system, a global supply chain and logistics network and geographically diverse “capacities and institutions” for research and development.

READ: WHO Pandemic Agreement draft_16 April 2024

The streamlined 23-page draft was sent to World Health Organization (WHO) member states on Tuesday night ahead of the final meeting of the intergovernmental negotiations body (INB) on 29 April.

The “minimum” components of the envisaged PABS system – one of the most contentious aspects of the negotiations – include the reservation of 20% of pandemic-related health products for the WHO for distribution to those most in need, and “annual monetary contributions from PABS System users”.

The basis for the PABS system, to be administered by the WHO, is “the fair, equitable and timely sharing of benefits, both monetary and non-monetary, arising from access to PABS material and information”.

But the “modalities, terms and conditions, and operational dimensions” of the PABS system will be “further defined in a legally-binding instrument, that is operational no later than 31 May 2026”, according to the draft. 

Ditto the mechanisms for a One Health approach, also to be decided in future and operational by 31 May 2026. 

As reported earlier by Health Policy Watch, the WHO’s 194 member states’ obligations to secure themselves against pandemics are codified in the draft – particularly in Articles 4,5 and 6. Meanwhile, some of the international obligations are there – but are still aspirational rather than practical.

‘Differences are not huge’

Ambassador Amanda Gorely, Australia’s representative to the UN in Geneva, told an event in the city on Wednesday that all delegations “need to come together and focus on finding consensus on these high level commitments, and on the institutional structures and further processes”.

“We have been working closely with our Ethiopian colleagues on Article 12 negotiations, which have been amongst, I think, the most intractable in terms of divergent positions. So we really appreciate and acknowledge the fact that the Bureau has been working very hard and indeed circulated a revised text last night, which we’re all now trying to digest and prepare to engage on in the next session,”  Gorely told a high-level discussion at the Geneva Graduate Institute’s Global Health Centre.

While Australia is generally aligned with the western bloc of countries, it has been working to resolve differences between the key power blocs.

“Negotiators who have been listening carefully to each other for many, many months, and know where common ground can be found, need to be empowered to make the agreement that we need to see happen.

“It’s really up to the negotiators and our governments, to enable them to be able to navigate where the landing zones are and of course, the Bureau has an essential role to play in that,” Gorely told the meeting, convened by the Geneva Graduate Institute’s Global Health Centre, the, Global Preparedness and Monitoring Board (GPMB) and Pandemic Action Network (PAN) to assess progress in the pandemic negotiations.

Ethiopian Ambassador Tsegab Kebebew Daka told the same event that “the differences are in the text are not huge”.

They are mainly differences of ideas and they’re not that many. So we can come to an agreement,” said Daka, a key negotiator for the Africa group.

What next?

So who takes this further? Once the draft has been agreed on, hopefully by the end of the INB’s ninth meeting on 10 May, it goes to the WHO’s World Health Assembly (WHA) which convenes from 27 May to 1 June. 

Once the draft and its accompanying resolution are passed by the WHA, some of the outstanding issues will need to be finalised. The WHA draft resolution proposes creating working groups on the key outstanding issues – namely the PABS system, One Health and financing – particularly to help low-and middle-income countries to implement all the provisions.

The draft’s Article 21 makes provision for a Conference of the Parties (COP) to be convened by the WHO “not later than one year after the entry into force of the WHO Pandemic Agreement”. The COP will determine the venue and timing of subsequent regular sessions at its first session, and shall “regularly” take stock of the implementation of the agreement, and review its functioning every five years.

Nina Schwalbe, head of Spark Street Advisors, who has been closely monitoring the negotiations, notes that the text “has no provision for monitoring compliance or details on state reporting requirements other than ‘periodically’,” and that also “notably missing is a working group for accountability or any type of Compliance Committee”.

Reduction in transparency

Meanwhile, James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International (KEI), said that “there has been a significant reduction in the transparency obligations, although a few important provisions have survived, for example, on the terms in government funding agreements”.

The article Love referred to is in Article 9 (research and development), which states that: “Each party shall ensure that government-funded research and development agreements for development of pandemic-related health products include, as appropriate, provisions that promote timely and equitable access to such products and shall publish the relevant terms.”

Transparency about how public money is spent on pharmaceutical R&D has long been a demand by medicines access activists.

The clause elaborates on the types of provisions that could access, listing them as “licensing and/or sublicensing, preferably on a non-exclusive basis;  affordable pricing policies; technology transfer on mutually agreed terms; publication of relevant information on research inputs and outputs; and/or adherence to product allocation frameworks adopted by WHO.”

Love also pointed to the removal of some wording related to using TRIPS flexibilities to enable access to medicines, which he described as “unfortunate”.

Image Credits: ULISES RUIZ / Getty Imageses Contributor, UNICEF.