Left to right: Miriam K. Were; Amandeep Singh Gill; Alicia Ely Yamin; Dame Sally Davies; Soumya Swaminathan; and Aishath Samiya at the World Health Summit Achieving Health for all through Digital Collaboration session.

At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of health systems – digital health technologies are playing a fast-expanding role – showing their revolutionary potential to address old and new needs and gaps, said participants on a Digital Health panel at the World Health Summit on Monday. 

“COVID-19 is the first pandemic of the digital age. We’re seeing first-hand how these new tools can support our efforts. Digital health technologies are helping to screen populations, track infection rates, and monitor resources,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the WHO. “They’re also helping us monitor the social and environmental determinants of health, which are fundamental elements in the fight against COVID-19.” 

Data sharing with biological specimens and whole genome sequences have enabled an unprecedented level of vaccine development within 10 months of the discovery of the novel virus, WHO Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan, another panel participant pointed out. 

Digital solutions also are making health care services more accessible and allowing people to better monitor and manage their own health – and their potential in that respect has only begun to be tapped, said Stella Kyriakides, Commissioner for Health and Food Safety in the European Commission.  

Stella Kyriakides at the World Health Summit Achieving Health for all through Digital Collaboration session.

“COVID-19 has accelerated the use of digital tools in health and helped make telemedicine more effective and accessible. However, it is also a stark reminder that we must ensure the growth in mutual support, inclusive resilience, and sustainable economies and societies. Every person must be able to benefit,” said Kyriakides. 

She and others called for more global collaboration on prioritizing and investing in digital health technologies, while ensuring high ethical standards to protect patient privacy and confidentiality. 

But despite the opportunities digital technologies offer, 47 percent of the world’s population is not connected to broadband internet and many low-income countries don’t have the capacity to invest in digital health. 

In this context, three values are critical to reaping the benefits of digital health technologies: inclusivity, collaboration, and innovation, said Dame Sally Davies, Special Envoy on Antimicrobial Resistance in the UK Government.

Digital Technologies Need to Spread Globally 

“These are global issues, so any digital technology cannot be confined – if it’s successful – to a national space. We need to collaborate to govern these technologies, but we also need to collaborate to maximize the use for addressing concrete challenges,” said Amandeep Singh Gill. Gill is Project Director of the International Digital Health and AI Research Collaborative (I-DAIR), which aims to do just that. It was recently launched by the Geneva Graduate Institute and Fondation Botnar and Geneva Science & Diplomacy Anticipator Foundation. 

“The promise of the SDGs, leaving no one behind, will not be met if we don’t change the rules of the game that continue to drive income to be redistributed upwards from poor to rich within countries…Part of unlocking the resources that are necessary to fully use digital technologies needs to include some assessment of those rules,” including rules around technology and intellectual property, warned Alicia Ely Yamin, Senior Advisor on Human Rights at Partners in Health. 

A draft WHO global strategy on digital health will be brought before the World Health Assembly for approval when it reconvenes in November. Member states will review a WHO roadmap to promote expanded, worldwide use of digital technologies over the next five years. 

The end goals for digital technologies are improved health outcomes, a people-centered approach, empowered community health workers and the public, and trust, said Swaminathan. 

The innovations from digital technologies that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic could also help address other existential threats, such as climate change and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) – all of which were key themes at this year’s World Health Summit. 

In other sessions of the Summit, participants have debated how to improve pandemic preparedness going forward in the age of COVID-19 as well as examining risks and solutions to drug-resistant bacteria, viruses and other pathogens – which could in the future trigger another major outbreak of diseases for which few treatments exist. Here are snapshots of key messages conveyed: 

Antimicrobial Resistance  – The Importance of Innovation
Scientists test a variety of bacteria for antimicrobial resistance.

If not addressed, the evolution of new strains of drug resistant bacteria and viruses could eventually pose an even bigger health emergency than the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially causing 10 million deaths annually by 2050, according to one recent UN report. At a session on Perspectives from the Covid19 Pandemic, the Importance of Innovation, Panelists at another World Health Summit session zeroed in on the future threat posed by antimicrobial resistance (AMR), the process by which some bacteria, viruses and other common pathogens become resistant to commonly used drugs, threatening effective prevention and treatment of a wide range of infectious diseases.

“The main threat of AMR is that it undermines modern medicine as we have it today. Antimicrobials are fundamental tools and how modern medicine is practiced. As resistance emerges against the tools that we have refined, the ability to deliver other types of medical interventions becomes more difficult and the threat of infectious diseases more generally, becomes a much bigger problem,” said Tim Jinks, Head of the Drug Resistant Infections Priority Program at Wellcome Trust.

It is perhaps no accident that in July 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the AMR Action Fund, was launched. The fund, developed in a partnership between the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations (IFPMA), WHO, Wellcome Trust, the Biopharmaceutical CEO Roundtable, and the European Investment Bank, aims to address the current dearth of funding in R&D for new antimicrobial agents, and bring 2-4 new antibiotics to market this decade.  Some two dozen leading pharma companies, including Pfizer, Roche, Johnson & Johnson, Merck and others, have invested in the fund.  

Panelists noted that other innovative R&D frameworks created in response to the COVID-19 pandemic could be used in the future to develop better treatments to address AMR. One example is  the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator, a global collaboration to speed up the development, manufacture, and distribution of tests, vaccines, and treatments for COVID-19. 

Along with innovation, much more needs to be done to strengthen global collaboration on AMR surveillance and regulation, to ensure that existing antibiotics and other antimicrobial drugs are better rationalized in human and animal populations to prolong their usefulness, while ensuring access to legitimate, full-formulas in developing country markets where weakened or counterfeit formulations may also contribute to growing drug resistance.

“Through data-driven practices, we can ensure that our antimicrobials, particularly the last line of drugs are there for patients who really depend on them, sharing data and collaborating to deliver…health care,” and encouraging investment in the antibiotic pipeline, said Davies.

Pandemic Preparedness in the Age of COVID-19
Tom Frieden at the World Health Summit’s Pandemic Preparedness in the Age of COVID-19 session.

The global experience with COVID-19 has cast a spotlight on the emergency preparedness of health systems, revealing that “the world remains woefully underprepared for epidemics,” warned Tom Frieden, President of Resolve to Save Lives, at the Pandemic Preparedness in the Age of COVID-19 session of the World Health Summit. 

“We have to recognize that COVID it is a long term threat to public health and the pandemic is nowhere near over...It’s very clear that this is the most destructive infectious disease threat the world has faced in a century,” said Frieden. “The disruption that COVID causes could kill many millions. The risk of explosive spread is not going to end when we have a vaccine.”

The lessons learned from combatting SARS, MERS, Ebola, and SARS-CoV2, thus far, are essential to better prepare for the continued threat of COVID-19 and future pandemics that will follow, he said. 

On a brighter note, the unprecedented speed of progress made in developing tests, treatments and vaccines since the beginning of the pandemic has created models for new modes of global collaboration, and strengthened public-private partnerships. 

The industry, the IFPMA manufacturers, have committed to sharing their know-how, their experience, to work together, to collaborate with each other, but also with society at large… And one of the reasons [this happened] is that there was this deep sense of responsibility that the industry has the unique skill set to help us,” said Thomas Cueni, Director-General of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers & Associations (IFPMA). “As a result, eight months later we have almost 1000 clinical trials [looking at], more than 300 treatments. We have 200 vaccine candidates, 12 of them in late stage clinical development.”

Thomas Cueni speaking at the World Health Summit session on Pandemic Preparedness in the Age of COVID-19.

Industry mobilization, as well as some of the technologies being developed, both can help improve future pandemic preparedness. he cited examples such as: “ever-warm” vaccine technologies, which could be stored at a higher range of temperatures than existing vaccines, and drug treatments using monoclonal antibodies, which require a complex manufacturing process, but could provide a basis for treating other pathogens that could emerge as future pandemic threats. 

Image Credits: World Health Summit, World Health Summit , Flickr – UK Department for International Development.

Spain announced a state of emergency on Sunday and ordered a nationwide curfew just days after becoming the first Western European country to surpass one million confirmed cases.

The curfew and restrictions on gatherings of more than six people has made Spain the latest country in Europe to toughen its guidelines, after France placed 46 million citizens under a 9pm to 6am curfew last Friday, and following Italy’s implementation of a strict 6pm closing time for bars and restaurants on Sunday.

“The reality is that Europe and Spain are immersed in a second wave of the pandemic,” said Pedro Sánchez, the Spanish prime minister, after a meeting of cabinet officials on Sunday.

The concern was shared by Dr Michael Ryan, Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, stating that there was “no question that the European region is an epicentre for disease right now.” Speaking at a press conference on Monday 26 October, Ryan added: “We are well behind this virus in Europe. Getting ahead of it is going to take some serious acceleration.”

Active cases of COVID-19 in Europe as of 9:00PM CET 26 October 2020. (Johns Hopkins University & Medicine)

France now ranks as the country with the fifth highest level of infections globally, with more than 1.1 million total COVID-19 cases, ranking behind only the US, India, Brazil and Russia. Poland also announced new restrictions following a 30% upswing in cases last week.

The trend is mirrored outside of Europe. In China, a new COVID-19 outbreak of more than 130 asymptomatic cases was detected in Kashgar, Xinjiang – the first local outbreak to occur in China since the second week of October. More than 4 million residents will be tested over the next few days.

Cumulative Deaths In United States Could Exceed 500,000 by February – Projects Nature Study

Over the weekend, the US reported a record 85,000 new cases in a single day. The number of cumulative deaths in the US could pass 500,000 by February 2021, according to a study projecting near-term US trends, published in Nature.

Using case and mortality data from February to September 2020 the COVID-19 Forecasting Team of the Seattle-based International Health Metrics and Evaluation arrived at this projection based on current non-pharmaceutical state intervention strategies. They note than universal mask use could reduce that number by nearly 130,000. The publication of IHME’s forecast follows a 40% rise in COVID-19 hospitalisations in the past month.

Health systems are also seeing a rise in non-hospital admissions related to COVID-19. A Guardian investigation reported a 71% increase in young people being admitted to eating disorder services in England in September. Sleeping pill prescriptions for those under 18 years old also increased by 30% between March and June, in comparison to data from two years prior.

“These alarming findings suggest that the Covid-19 crisis has had a profound impact on the mental health of many young people,” said Emma Thomas to the Guardian, chief executive at Young Minds, a UK charity advocating for children and young people’s mental health. “This may be related to fears about the virus, social isolation, the loss of routine and structure, and in some cases bereavement or other traumatic experiences.”

Suspended COVID clinical trials resume in the US  – as 184 countries join universal roll-out initiative

Two late-stage clinical trials for COVID-19 vaccines, developed by AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, resumed in the US on Friday.

The AstraZeneca trial was paused for six weeks after reports of neurological symptoms in two trial participants. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reviewed safety trials globally and determined that the trial could continue.

“The restart of clinical trials across the world is great news,” said Pascal Soriot, CEO of AstraZeneca in a statement released on Friday. “It allows us to continue our efforts to develop this vaccine to help defeat this terrible pandemic.

He added: “We should be reassured by the care taken by independent regulators to protect the public and ensure the vaccine is safe before it is approved for use.”

The Johnson & Johnson trial was paused for 11 days due to an unexplained illness in a participant, now believed to be unrelated to the vaccine, following an independent investigation.

In a statement released on Friday, Johnson & Johnson said:  “Clinical trials are designed to evaluate safety and efficacy based on a complete view of all participants and their experiences. Unexpected adverse events, including illnesses, can occur in study participants during any clinical study.”

Over 40 vaccine candidates are now in various stages of R&D, including 9 candidates in Phase 3 trials. The Israel Institute for Biological Research (IIBR) announced on Sunday that it would begin human trials for a vaccine candidate on November 1. The first phase will include 80 participants, expanding to 960 in Phase 2 and 30,000 in Phase 3. This is expected to take place in spring April or May 2021.

“I believe in the abilities of our scientists and I am confident that we can produce a safe and effective vaccine,” said Shmuel Shapira, director of the IIBR. “Our final goal is 15 million rations for the residents of the State of Israel and for our close neighbors.”  The vaccine would be easier to administer than many other late-stage candidates currently under trials, he said, because it would only require one dose, as compared to two. Many other leading candidates, with the exception of Johnson&Johnson require two shots to provide immunity.

In a press conference on Monday, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of WHO, noted that some 184 countries have by now joined the COVAX Facility vaccine initiative, calling it a “positive development” against trends of vaccine nationalism.

“Having a vaccine and using it as a global public good means sharing it,” he said, noting that this is not easy. “Every political leader would be worried about their own constituency. It will need a very strong leadership convincing their constituency that when we share we can have better value.”

Image Credits: S. Lustig Vijay/HP-Watch.

WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus speaking at the virtual World Health Summit

The World Health Summit, one of global health’s premier policy conferences got underway today in the shadow of an escalating COVID-19 case surge across Europe. The surge saw WHS sessions shift to an all-virtual platform – after organizers were forced to shelve initial plans for limited in-person participation in Berlin, where the annual conference co-hosted by the German government, typically draws thousands of health policymakers, experts and researchers from government, academia and industry.   

“COVID-19 is shining a light on the decisions we and policy makers are making, not only today, but also in the past,” said WHO’s Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, at Sunday’s opening ceremony, in a session that included UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. 

“The virus thrives in the inequalities in our societies, and the gaps in our health systems. The pandemic has highlighted the neglect of basic health system functions underpinning emergency preparedness – to disastrous consequences,” Dr Tedros added. 

His comments echoed key themes in this year’s conference, which is focusing on pandemic preparedness and responses in multiple dimensions. Themes will touch on oft-polarized debates over vaccine nationalism and access to medicines  – as well as exploring more technical issues such as digital health and disease surveillance.  The conference will also touch on the broader context in which the pandemic has unfolded, including accelerating climate change and increasing non-communicable disease rates, which also make people more vulnerable to COVID-19. 

Repeating an oft-stated message, The WHO Director General underlined that robust health systems are the foundation of response now and preparedness tomorrow: “Of course, this pandemic is playing out differently in every country and in every community. But there are some constants,” said Dr Tedros. “Health systems, matter preparedness matters and doctors, nurses and health workers must have the training and equipment they need. This have been fundamental to how countries and communities are weathering this pandemic. ….Public Health is more than medicine and science. And it’s bigger than any individual, ultimately, it’s a matter of leadership at the question of political choice.”

“Vaccine Nationalism” Will Prolong Pandemic  

The WHO Director General also called upon countries to shun “vaccine nationalism” and support an equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, once they become available, particularly in light of the unprecedented threat that COVID-19 poses worldwide. 

“Let me be clear, vaccine nationalism will prolong the pandemic, not shorten it,” said Dr Tedros. 

“It’s natural that countries want to protect their own citizens first. But if and when we have an effective vaccine, we must also use it effectively. And the best way to do that is to vaccinate some people in all countries rather than all people in some countries. 

“I will repeat. The best way to do that is vaccinate some people in all countries, rather than all people in some countries,” he said. 

UNAIDS – Vaccines Should Be ‘Public Goods’  

UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima

Speaking at the opener, UNAIDS Executive Director Winnie Byanyima echoed the WHO call on equitable distribution of future COVID-19 vaccines and went further – saying that the therapies  must be a “peoples’ vaccine” in order to be and fairly distributed. “To do this, pharma companies must openly share their know-how and technology for producing the vaccines” as opposed to holding onto “patent monopolies.” 

The fight against COVID-19 must be one that “places human rights at the heart of the response to the crisis, she added, citing past pandemics like the HIV/AIDS crisis of two decades ago, as an example: 

“Through the AIDS/HIV crisis, there was a global HIV response that has allowed 25 million people to get on life saving HIV treatment to live full lives. 

“Only bold and radical policy action will get us out of crises like this. Nothing less than that can work,” stated Byanyima.

“We can beat COVID-19, we can beat inequality, we can finish the unfinished business of AIDS and also repair and restore the global economy, but only without people centered, public health, rights based approach.

“The most important drivers of change during the AIDS epidemic were not those in authority, but rather, those most affected, who can bring insight, practical innovations, as well as the truth needed to guide leaders and countries forward,” she added. “To do that, governments must acknowledge that COVID-19 vaccine tests and treatments are public goods.” 

Race Towards Vaccine is a Race Against the Virus, Not Pharma Companies, says Sanofi CEO

Sanofi CEO Paul Hudson

But global leaders calling for radical action also need to remember that the world is engaged in a “race against the virus,” and companies are part of the solution, not the problem, said Sanofi CEO Paul Hudson, which is developing a messengerRNA (mRNA) vaccine candidate together with GSK, currently in Phase 2 trials. 

Hudson said that the company is committed to ensuring affordable and accessible distribution of any vaccines or health products that they produce – including “providing a significant proportion of our total worldwide available supply to COVAX,” he said, referring to the WHO global vaccine procurement facility to which over 180 countries have signed on .

“The race is not between companies; it’s against the virus,” said Hudson. 

He added that Sanofi also is collaborating with the European Union to build more resilience into the regional and global health products supply chain, in the wake of supply chain interruptions at the start of the pandemic, and consequent tensions between countries. The steps include co-creation of an  “European and global champion dedicated to the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients,” he said, “The crisis we face should not lead us to take further protectionist measures. What we need to ensure is building resilience and strategic health autonomy.” 

But he added that it’s also critical that governments around the world invest in stronger healthcare systems and infrastructure – otherwise medicines still will not reach those people who need them. 

“It is fundamental that governments around the world, despite all the headwinds, continue to invest in healthcare systems and infrastructure. We know that today almost half the world population still lacks access to essential health services.”

European Commission President Dr. Ursula von der Leyen

Added Nanette Cocero, President of Pfizer Vaccines, routine health services also need to be maintained, such as life-saving vaccinations  against existing preventable diseases. 

“Prioritizing vaccination against disease that is already preventable protects the most vulnerable among us, from newborns in maternity hospitals to older adults, for whom illnesses like seasonal flu and pneumococcal diseases pose a serious danger and disruption of immunization services” she said, adding that even “brief” interruptions can increase the likelihood of  outbreaks for highly contagious diseases like measles.” 

Added Von der leyen, the broader context of health also needs a closer look. Sounding notes on other themes such as climate change, which are also being featured at this year’s Summit, she said. “In today’s world, we need to look after our health by looking after our planet, our well being and our sustainable development. And we need to do it together through global health cooperation and not through global health competition.” 

 

Image Credits: R Santos/HP Watch.

A milestone study has found that women giving birth when they are infected with COVID-19, even if asymptomatic, may have more post-birth complications, including fever and hypoxia leading to hospital readmission, as compared to women who are not infected.

The study, conducted by Malavika Rabhu of Weill Cornell Medicine, observed 675 women admitted for delivery in New York. Of the women, 10.4% tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, although  78.6% of these women were asymptomatic. 

However, following birth, complications such as fever, hypoxia, readmission occurred in 12.9% of women with COVID-19 versus 4.5% of women without. 

There was also increased frequency of fetal vascular malperfusion among their newborn babies, which indicates thrombi in fetal vessels – occurring in 48.3% of women who had COVID-19 versus the 11.3% who didn’t. 

Malavika Prabhu, Weill Cornell Medicine

Cesarean rates also were higher in women infected by COVID-19, at rates of 46.7% in symptomatic COVID-19 cases, 45.5% in asymptomatic women, and 30.9% in women without COVID-19.  

These potential complications suggest impacts from COVID-19 for women and their newborn babies at the moment of delivery and beyond, Prabhu notes, speaking at a press briefing on Thursday. More research needs to be done she said, regarding the implications of COVID-19 on pregnancy. 

The risks identified are especially important for pregnant women to be aware of – if they are infected and due to give birth – particularly since some pregnant women have avoided accessing care at clinics in COVID hospitals, according to Prahbu. 

Obesity also represents a significant risk factor for enhanced disease for pregnant patients with COVID-19, added  Professor Kristina Adams Waldorf, speaking at The Union session. Waldorf who has studied the impacts of the infection on obese pregnant women in a study in Washington State.

Excess adipose tissue, which can impair immune response to viral infections, and the impact obesity has on pulmonary mechanics and breathing can make “pregnant patients that are obese prior to pregnancy more symptomatic,” Walfdorf states. 

There is evidence that suggests that there’s an increased risk for hospitalization and need for mechanical ventilation for pregnant infected patients. This is especially for pregnant patients with COVID-19, who have had their pregnancy compromised by the infection, which results in a preterm birth. Obesity would add another layer to these risks. 

“We have almost what we would consider kind of a perfect storm where there are multiple factors that are interacting at the same time that complicate the management of this pregnant patient, ultimately leading to the decision to deliver preterm.”

Image Credits: Flickr: Nuno Ibra Remane, R Santos/HP Watch.

Madhukar Pai, Director of McGill Global Health Programs and Director of the McGill International TB Center.

In combatting COVID-19, many countries around the world are currently facing “house on fire moments,” as described by Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. However, the syndemic of COVID-19 and TB poses an even more deadly threat. 

TB and COVID-19 respiratory diseases affect mostly the same vulnerable populations. Disproportionately, marginalized communities, those living in poverty, those with underlying conditions, those who don’t have access to clean drinking water or sanitation, and those who can’t afford masks or are unable to socially distance have been hit hardest medically and socioeconomically by both COVID-19 and TB. 

According to Madhukar Pai, associate director of the McGill International TB Center, 25 years of progress in malaria, TB, HIV detection and treatment, as well as widespread vaccinations of vaccine preventable diseases and care for non-communicable diseases, has been rolled back in 25 weeks. He and Osterholm were both speaking at a session at the 51st Union World Conference on Lung Health on Thursday. 

COVID-19 has severely disrupted health systems and services globally. 1.4 million people died from TB-related illnesses in 2019. With a 25 percent disruption in TB detention and treatment, 13 percent more TB deaths could potentially occur this year, found the recent WHO Global Tuberculosis Report. In addition, a decade’s worth of progress in reducing deaths from TB, the world’s oldest known and still the most deadly infectious disease, has been pushed back over the 10 months of the pandemic. 

The infrastructure laid down by TB systems and programmes was in fact essential to mounting the early response to COVID-19, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. 

“When this virus hit us, many countries were able to leverage existing capacities, be it the influenza surveillance systems or the molecular diagnostic testing capacities of TB programs, to respond more effectively to COVID-19,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO COVID-19 Technical Lead. 

In order to rebuild the disrupted health systems, Pai called for the leveraging and repurposing of innovative COVID-19 systems and technologies to fight TB. 

“The amount of investments that have gone into COVID-19 vaccines in six to eight months exceeds all the investments ever made on TB vaccines in the history of humanity. How is this acceptable, given the death toll that TB has cost in the last several years. We must ensure that these R&D investments are not wasted,” said Pai. 

Community-based testing for COVID-19 in April in Madagascar.

The same infrastructures that have been created to respond to and manage the COVID-19 pandemic could revolutionize TB detection, treatment, and care, if they were applied to the latter. These include: 

  • Mobile apps designed for COVID-19 self-assessment, public education, screening, and contact tracing, all of which are necessary for TB. 
  • Innovative diagnostics, such as digital chest x-rays using artificial intelligence based software, could be used to screen for both COVID-19 and TB. 
  • Decentralized, community based testing could be scaled up for TB.
  • Remote service provision systems and technologies, including tele-health and at-home delivery of medicines, could be repurposed for both COVID-19 and TB. 
  • Behavioral changes in healthcare facilities, with wearing PPE, and among the public, with distancing and wearing face masks, can interrupt transmission for TB and COVID-19. 
  • Global partnerships, such as COVAX – a multilateral collaboration of over 171 countries, established to pool funding for COVID-19 vaccine development and distribution – are critical to increase access to research, technology, and treatment for TB. 

“If we don’t use this crisis and invest in universal health coverage [UHC] as a long standing solution for better pandemic preparedness…then TB will suffer because TB desperately needs the protection of UHC,” said Pai. “And therefore my biggest dream would be for UHC to get front and center on the political agenda and for our countries’ leaders to have learned this hard lesson that health is wealth and wealth is health.”

 

Image Credits: Flickr – World Bank, International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease.

Jilian Sacks presents results of FIND evaluation of COVID-19 rapid diagnostics – only two by SD biosensor make the grade

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) could play a critical role in decentralising testing and reaching remote communities as WHO launches an Africa roll-out, but a recent study has found that only two of the six RDTs making it to the final round of testing met WHO accuracy standards.

RDTs test for proteins produced by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, collected using nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs. Typically, they are more reliable in symptomatic patients, with a high viral load, especially in their upper respiratory tract, and their ease-of-use makes them preferable to other means of testing in critical situations.

The study, led by the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND), evaluated the performance and ease-of-use of six commercially available RDTs in people presumed to have COVID-19, in testing centres across Brazil, Germany and the UK. The 2,400 adult participants enrolled in the study were identified as at risk for infection according to their local department of public health. Patients were excluded if they had previously been diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2.

The results, which were released at The Union World Conference on Lung Health and also pre-published on medRxiv.org, were then compared to the accuracy requirements approved by WHO. According to this profile, RDTs must have a minimum sensitivity of 70% and at least 97% specificity, but only two tests met the proposed minimal requirement for both categories.

The Standard Q, an RDT made by SD Biosensor Inc, performed best overall, with 76% sensitivity and 99% specificity in Germany, and with 88% and 97% in Brazil. It also scored 86 out of 100 for ease-of-use.

“These tests are likely to be useful in settings where the COVID-19 positivity rates are higher to minimize the number of false positive tests that are detected,” said Jilian Sacks, an author on the study. Because data suggests RDTs have improved accuracy in people with higher viral loads, this would be a good way, she added, “to be sure you’re diagnosing someone with COVID-19, and then take appropriate health measures.”

Tests For Antibodies Post-infection Seem More Sensitive 

On a more positive note, Sacks said, the blood tests being rolled out now to test antibody levels in the general population seem more reliable. The FIND study evaluating those tests, found that  of the 15 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA), 11 met performance targets. ELISAs detect antibodies 14 days or more after symptoms appear, with a performance time of up to two hours. 

This makes such tests an excellent way to track infection and immunity in large groups of people, but the sophisticated equipment required makes them inefficient for use in the rapid diagnosis of people who are actually ill and infectious. 

Effective control of the virus is largely dependent on the quick identification of infected individuals, followed by a period of isolation and clinical support, if needed. The current gold standard of testing – polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests – can only be conducted in a laboratory as they detect nucleic acid from SARS-CoV-2. This can leave people waiting anywhere from 48 hours to more than 10 days for results, impeding rapid identification and isolation efforts.

It is believed that RDTs, with their turnaround time of up to half an hour, play a critical role in cutting this delay and limiting the transmission of COVID-19. The cheap cost and ease-of-use mean they are being considered as an effective method of testing alongside current PCR tests.

Rapid testing could turn the tide in Africa

Standard Q, the best performing RDT tested by FIND, is one of two rapid tests being rolled out across Africa by WHO, in the hope of increasing testing capacity.

Globally, 120 million RDTs are being made available to low- and middle-income countries through the ACT-Accelerator, a coalition also including UNITAID, the Global Fund, and FIND. The coalition, together with the Africa Centres for Disease Control will distribute the tests in 20 African countries. WHO is also supporting countries to procure the tests through the supply portal set up by the United Nations.

Many African countries have struggled to test in numbers sufficient to control the transmission of coronavirus. In the last month, only 12 countries reached the key threshold of 10 tests per 10,000 people per week. Many are also falling short when compared to countries of a similar size in different regions. Nigeria is testing 11 times less than Brazil, with Senegal testing less than 14 times that of the Netherlands.

“Most African countries are focused on testing travellers, patients or contacts, and we estimate that a significant number of cases are still missed,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa at a press conference on Thursday. “With rapid testing, authorities can stay a step ahead of COVID-19 by scaling up active case finding in challenging environments, such as crowded urban neighbourhoods and communities in the hinterlands.”

WHO recommends RDTs for use in outbreaks in hard-to-reach areas with no access to the city-constricted PCR testing sites, and in areas with widespread community transmission.

120 million RDTs are being made available to low- and middle-income countries under the umbrella coalition ACT-Accelerator. Institutions and organisations, including FIND, will distribute these tests in 10 African countries.

The Standard Q RDT will roll-out alongside the Panbio COVID-19 Antigen Rapid Test Device, manufactured by Abbott. It is important to note that the Panbio RDT was not commercially available when FIND conducted their study,  Sacks said. She said an independent study of that RDT is now underway.

“It’s important to conduct limited performance evaluations in order to support affordable access to testing, particularly in low and middle income countries,” Sacks said.

  • James Hacker contributed to the reporter and writing of this article 
Soumya Swaminathan, WHO Chief Scientist

The United States Food and Drug Administration decision Thursday to approve Gilead Science’s Remdesivir as a COVID-19 treatment failed to consider the results of the recent WHO “Solidarity Trial”  – which found no measurable benefits for the drug’s use – because the pharma company failed to include the study in its FDA submission for approval,  WHO’s Chief Scientist said on Friday.   

Speaking at a WHO press conference, Soumya Swaminathan also said that she hoped to see  results from “one or two” viable COVID-19 vaccine candidates emerging by the end of this year. But like other experts, she cautioned that even if all goes well, a vaccine would only likely become available in the first quarter of 2021 to the highest risk groups – like health workers. 

“Certainly in early 2021, I think we’re going to start seeing more and more results coming out.  And somewhere in the first quarter of 2021, we’re talking about the world, there may be some vaccines available for the most high-risk groups in countries around the world,” said Swaminathan, repeating a frequent WHO call that the initial, limited supplies should be fairly distributed with front-line health workers around the world getting access first.

Gilead Sciences Omitted WHO’s Evidence That Remdesivir Doesn’t Work From Its FDA Submission  

In terms of GIlead’s omission of the WHO evidence on Remdesivir, Swaminathan said that WHO provided the results of its Solidarity Trial, the largest of the drug in the world, to Gilead Pharmaceuticals on 28 September, even before they had been publicly announced on 16 October by WHO:  “but it appears that the Solidarity results were not considered, were not provided to the FDA.” 

She also said: “What we understand from the FDA decision yesterday was that it was based on data submitted to them from Gilead, which did not include the Solidarity Trial results.”  

The WHO Solidarity trial is the largest in the world to have been conducted on the experimental treatment, which was originally developed for Ebola but never approved. The WHO Solidarity Trial of the drug’s use against the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 involved 5000 patients around the world, who were randomized to administration of the drug or the standard of care. 

Even though the WHO sponsored trial was not double blinded – investigators knew which patients were being administered the drug or not, it was still “very robust” Swaminathan said, “because we looked at endpoints like mortality, like death, which is not a soft endpoint. Its not something you can fudge. We looked at progression to ventilation, which is again, very objective,” she said. 

“We looked at very important endpoints, like hospital mortality. No difference. Progression to ventilation – 92% of the people who entered this trial were not on mechanical ventilation… we looked at how many of those progressed to need ventilation. There were exactly the same numbers in the Remdesivir and the control arm…. ”

The trial also looked at the proportion of patients discharged from hospital after seven days – and there again, there was “no difference in those proportions” for people receiving Remdesivir and those receiving a standard of care, she said.   

US FDA Decision Anchored in NIAID Trial
3D molecular structure of Remdesivir

The US FDA decision Thursday, announced as the “first treatment for COVID-19” to be fully approved by the agency, appeared to be largely anchored in the results of two clinical trials sponsored by Gilead, which showed varying degrees of symptomatic improvement for people administered the drug, as well as a trial conducted by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), with over 1,000 patients in spring 2020, which found slight benefits for people using the drug in terms of their “time to recovery”.  

Of the latter, the US FDA statement said the NIAID trial evaluated how long it took for subjects to recover from COVID-19 within 29 days of being treated:

“The trial looked at 1,062 hospitalized subjects with mild, moderate and severe COVID-19 who received Veklury (n=541) or placebo (n=521), plus standard of care. Recovery was defined as either being discharged from the hospital or being hospitalized but not requiring supplemental oxygen and no longer requiring ongoing medical care.

“The median time to recovery from COVID-19 was 10 days for the Veklury [Remdesivir] group compared to 15 days for the placebo group, a statistically significant difference. Overall, the odds of clinical improvement at Day 15 were also statistically significantly higher in the Veklury group when compared to the placebo group.

Said Swaminathan of the NIAID trial and others, “Recovery was defined in a number of ways, but it was based on how patients were feeling, whether they needed oxygen, and whether they needed hospitalization.” 

Despite Gilead Pass – WHO To Incorporate Solidarity Trial Findings in Updated Global Treatment Guidelines

Despite the fact that the Solidarity findings on Remdesivir were ignored in the US FDA approval process, WHO will be incorporating the results into an updated set of global treatment guidelines that should be issued within the next several weeks.  The Solidarity Trial also tested the efficacy of three other treatments including hydroxychloroquine, Interferon and the HIV combination drug Lopinavir-Ritonavir – all of which have fallen by the wayside as well. Conversely, WHO says, the inexpensive generic drug, dexemethasone, has been demonstrated to reduce mortality by a third among critically-ill COVID-19 patients, in a UK trial, and has been strongly recommended by WHO for use in severe and critically ill patients.   

“We believe our results are very robust, and we hope that people who are doing treatment guidelines around the world as well as regulators around the world will take note of the study results, in addition to the other evidence – because you need to look at the global evidence for a drug before you make decisions,” said Swaminathan. 

COVID-19 Infection Trends Have Countries on ‘Dangerous’ Track, Warns WHO Director General

Meanwhile, WHO Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that current COVID-19 infection trends in the northern hemiphere are on a “dangerous track” -saying that countries need to choose between the “the good, the bad and the ugly” in shaping their responses.

“The next few months are going to be very tough and some countries are on a dangerous track,” Ghebreyesus warned. 

“Too many countries are seeing an exponential increase in cases and that’s now leading to hospitals and ICUs running close. or above, capacity and we’re still only in October. We urge leaders to take immediate action to prevent further unnecessary deaths, essential services from collapsing, and schools shutting again.

“As I said in February, and I am repeating it today, this is not a drill.” 

In shaping responses, countries need to “consider the good, the bad and the ugly”, he added saying that for countries that have got COVID-19 under control, “now is the time to double down”. For those countries seeing infection rates soaring out of control, he urged politicians to “make the necesssary changes and correct course; making changes when needed shows leadership and strength.”

The WHO Director General added that public support also needs to be proffered to shield households from the worst economic fallout of COVID-19: “That means if people are told to isolate or quarantine, or businesses have to close temporarily, governments need to do everything they can to assist individuals, famlies and businesses.” 

Image Credits: WHO, ChiralJon – Remdesivir 3D.

While most of us hope that if we can just get one vaccine to market that will be enough to solve our global COVID-19 matrix – the controversial ‘human challenge’ studies now getting underway highlight how many more twists and turns we are likely to face before we finally get out of the pandemic maze.

On Tuesday, London’s Imperial College sent ripples of both excitement and protest through the COVID research community, announcing that it would embark on the first “human challenge” trials of COVID-19 vaccines – involving the deliberate infection of healthy, young volunteers with the potentially deadly SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The first stage of the project, scheduled to begin in January 2021, will expose the volunteers to the coronavirus in controlled, gradually increasing doses, in order to determine the smallest amount of virus that it may take for a person to develop the disease. In a second stage, researchers aim to use that newfound knowledge to test different vaccine alternatives more rapidly and efficiently than could be done in conventional large-scale clinical trials – including by administering a vaccine to volunteers, and then infecting them with infectious doses of the virus.

Can Human Challenge Trials Make A Difference?

Vaccine pre-purchase orders by pharma firm; by Suerie Moon, Global Health Centre, Geneva Graduate Institute

Even if a couple of the leading vaccine candidates from Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson make it to the market by early 2021, the world faces a myriad of other problems in deploying the new tools to actually stop the pandemic. Among the barriers:

  • Limited vaccine supplies. As low-income countries have pointed out over and over, a large proportion of vaccine supplies created by the front-running candidates that are expected to become available in 2021, have already been bought up by rich countries. This includes not Canada, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.  Just last week, Switzerland also made a big new pre-order of 5.3 million doses from AstraZeneca – on top of a previous Swiss pre-order of 4.5 million doses from Moderna.
  • Unsuitability of some vaccines in some places or for some populations. The AstraZeneca vaccine, for instance, requires cold storage at extreme temperatures; its trials also have been marred by a series of adverse events -including the death Wednesday of a 28-year-old trial participant in Brazil from COVID-19, although it was not clear if he had received the vaccine or a placebo. In addition, some vaccines may be more or less effective in older people, than others.
  • Limited vaccine acceptance. A new study of vaccine hesitancy covering 18 OECD countries indicates that only about 72 per cent of people would even use a vaccine, at this stage, even if one is proven safe and available. More vaccine testing leading to more choices also might, indirectly, help build public support.
Canada leads in vaccine pre-orders per capita, followed by the UK, Japan and the EU.  Data does not include the recent Swiss pre-order, which just about doubled its pledged commitments; Suerie Moon, Global Health Centre, Geneva Graduate Institute at The Union World Conference on Lung Health. 

So while hardly a panacea, proponents of so-called human challenge trials say that their approach could help cull out other effective vaccines among the 40-odd candidates still in the research and development pipeline, making more vaccine choices more widely available to more people around the world.

Proponents note that human challenge trials are, in fact, not unusual; they have been used in the past to rapidly test and scale up new types of vaccines for other deadly infectious diseases like cholera and typhoid, the fairly unique aspect of these trials is the fact that they will be undertaken before any known treatment or cure exists for COVID-19.

But sceptics point out that while the UK study would recruit healthy, young volunteers (18-30 years) with no previous history or symptoms of COVID-19, no underlying health conditions and no known adverse risk factors for COVID-19 such as heart disease, diabetes or obesity, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has proven to be a particularly tricky one, causing a weird array of unexpected side effects from neurological impacts to heart disease – even in some presumably, young and healthy people. Some of them lasting for months, or longer – a phenomenon described as “long COVID.”  In light of the still unknown factors that cause some people to fare much worse than others,  and the fact that there is no known treatment, let alone cure, the ethical challenges posed by human challenge trials of this particular virus are particularly vivid.

Critics: Plenty Of People Naturally Infected With COVID-19 – No Need For Researchers To Deliberately Infect More

Critics of the approach include Dr Ken Kengatharan, co-founder and chairman of the California-based biotech firm Renexxion, who told us the following:

“A COVID-19 challenge study is as dumb and dangerous an idea as it gets considering the fact that SARS-CoV-2 is an atypical coronavirus (without any comparable out there or historically) and we are just learning about its MOA [mode of action] plus acute and chronic effects in all age groups with or without co-morbidities. Even the mechanism by which the virus causes, cytokine storm or SIRS (systemic inflammatory response syndrome), multi-organ failure, sepsis orseptic shock is very different.”

A recent study published in Lancet Respiratory Medicine vividly describes the distinctive quality of that immune response and dangerous over-response, in words and in graphics.

Cytokine Storm .jpg
Lancet Respiratory Medicine – mapping of immune over-reaction to SARS-CoV-2 as compared to other viruses

Human Challenge studies may be very useful to get rapid answers, Kengatharan adds: “If there are no large participants’ pool. These studies should be used once you know a lot about the virus; there aren’t that many people in the world to test; the vaccines have an expected efficacy of greater than 90 per cent especially if the virus does not have long-lasting effect; and when there is a way to treat people using drugs once they develop the disease (useful, if the vaccine does not work in a particular person), for example, Zika.”

He adds that the biggest costs around late-stage vaccine development involve the length of time required to recruit large numbers of patients. This in turn depends on infection numbers and thus how many stand to benefit from a vaccine.

“So when there is a potentially small number of available vaccine users, challenge studies will be useful to know if a vaccine is safe and efficacious using a small number of patients which means shorter timeline and lower cost.

But in the case of COVID-19, where the world has already exceeded 41 million cases worldwide, “we have -19 hot spots around the world, one can do the vaccine Phase 3 studies as fast as challenge studies!

“If there are many participants available, and one wants to test vaccines that are likely to have lower efficacy e.g. less than 80 per cent, and the virus has long lasting effects, then these challenge studies are not advisable. They don’t and won’t compress the length of Phase 3 trials!

“Besides, challenge studies [involving limited number of participants in just one setting] won’t tell you much about the effect of vaccines on heterogeneous populations with different co-morbidities. Already we know SARS-CoV-2 affects different people in different ways.”

So are human challenge studies both reckless and a waste of time?

A number of top global bioethics experts, who spend their careers pondering the pros and cons of these kinds of ethical dilemmas, put a much more positive spin on the Imperial College initiative and the relevance of the human challenge concept to COVID-19.

Dr Arthur Caplan, founding head of the division of medical ethics at NYU School of Medicine, notes that right now, there may be sufficient numbers of people ready to volunteer for the classically designed randomized controlled trials (RCTs) which need 30,000 to 50,000 participants to determine whether infection rates are really lower in those receiving the vaccine than those who received a placebo, without subjecting anyone deliberately to extra risks. That may soon change.

What happens, he asks, after the first vaccine hits the market? People may be far less willing to sign up for such trials en masse. And at that point, Human Challenge trials may become more critical to tease out the benefits of different types of COVID-19 vaccines, particularly in light of the more than 40 vaccines are currently in various stages of R&D. Caplan:

“As vaccines get approved for emergency use or licensed many [clinical] trials may collapse as subjects demand unblinding, or refuse to sign up for new studies and seek access to an approved, albeit not great vaccine.

“Challenge studies will enable comparator trials among promising vaccines to help determine which is best… Challenge studies may be the only way forward if large RCTs are not feasible for next in line vaccine candidates. Risks and unknowns are real but if brave volunteers consent the benefit to the world will be enormous.”

Nir Eyal, head of the Rutgers Center for Population-level Bioethics and author of a recent paper on the ethics of human challenge trials, is even more emphatic.

He calls the planned British studies “very important”, saying that they can eventually provide more nuanced data, more rapidly, on what vaccines are safer and more effective:

“Even if and when a vaccine like the ones currently being tested is proven safe and efficacious, we would still need to test others. These others may yet prove even more efficacious (e.g. for blocking infections and reaching vaccine-derived herd immunity, and thus helping us end this pandemic), as well as safer, easier to deliver, cheaper, or simply available outside a few countries that are hoarding the global vaccine supply. “A challenge trial would provide fast, reliable answers, much more than more rounds of slower conventional trials.

“Challenge trials save some time compared to conventional trials when all goes well in the latter, because in challenge trials, there is no need to wait for enough natural infections to accrue. When all does not go well, and specifically when the outbreak moves elsewhere, challenge trials can save a lot of time.”

That, he says, is what we are seeing with COVID-19, which is proving to be a moving target with infection rates rising, declining and hotspots constantly shifting.

And what about the risks to the brave volunteers?

Any benefits, Eyal he asserts, would still far outweigh the risks:

  • It is true, he concedes, that a challenge trial carries risks to volunteers, but those risks can be dramatically reduced by selecting volunteers at low risk. And compared to the dramatic humanitarian value of a challenge trial, these risks to volunteers are “ethically acceptable.” Some other common medical practices such as live kidney donation involve commensurate risks.
  • Crucially, just like live kidney donation, challenge trials (and the dose-escalation study that will precede them) must be performed only with the “truly informed consent of the study volunteers, who prove their comprehension of all risks and uncertainties,” he underlines. “Just as the consensual nature of kidney donation helps justify risks to kidney donors, so does the challenge volunteer’s autonomous consent to being put at risk, for the greater cause of ending the pandemic earlier.”

“If a challenge trial helps shorten the pandemic by a mere one month (and it may shorten it more), it will have averted the loss of at least 720,000 years of life and 40 million years in dire poverty worldwide (an estimate by development economist Pedro Rosa Dias, global health leader Ara Darzi, and myself),” Eyal concludes.

Eyal’s big regret, in fact, is that the US didn’t pursue such studies early on, as was proposed at one stage to the National Institutes of Health.

“Such an early study would have saved even more time and accelerated vaccine development even more than the UK study will do.” He says an ill-informed report to the National Institutes of Health put the US public authorities off of the idea, saying it would take one to two years to set up, “an impression that will be refuted when the Brits conduct a challenge study earlier.”

The World Health Organization’s Take

Like many other thorny pandemic issues it has faced, WHO doesn’t exactly endorse challenge trials. But it’s fairly obvious that the organisation sees them as a potentially legitimate mode of research – even in the COVID-19 context – having drawn up two weighty volumes of guidance about the issue.

In a press briefing this week, WHO Spokesperson Margaret Harris said that the organisation’s guidance includes a report by a WHO working group on the key criteria for the ethical acceptability of COVID-19 human challenge studies and another draft document by a WHO Advisory group on the feasibility, potential value and limitations of challenge studies.

In a nutshell, says Harris:

“There are very important ethical considerations to take into consideration if you are planning to do such a trial. We have developed guidance on this… We have identified eight principles that need to be followed, one of them being that they must be overseen by an ethics committee. They must also have full consent. You will be challenging people with a virus that we don’t have a treatment for. Generally, these were done in the past when we had a specific treatment… You must ensure that everybody involved understands what is at stake… and the informed consent is rigorous.”

That’s not an unqualified ‘‘yes’’. But it isn’t a ‘‘no’’ either.

__________________________

Published as part of a collaboration with Geneva Solutions, a new platform for International Geneva focusing on constructive journalism about climate, humanitarian affairs, sustainable business, and digital technology, as well as health.

Image Credits: KEYSTONE/Gaetan Bally, Kerry Cullinan , R Santos/HP Watch.

Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the World Conference on Lung Health

America’s most-respected public health guru, Dr Anthony Fauci, said Wednesday that he is “cautiously optimistic’ that at least one COVID-19 vaccine will prove to be safe and effective later this month or next.  

While warning that “one can never guarantee a safe and effective vaccine… we are cautiously optimistic that we will have one based on preliminary encouraging data,” said Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, speaking at a session of the weeklong  51st Union World Conference on Lung Health

“We project that by November and December, we’ll have the answer, and then by the end of the year in the beginning of 2021 will be able to distribute doses of vaccines that have been pre ordered and made – prior to even knowing they would work.”

Priority for distribution of the first vaccine doses that are approved should go to healthcare workers and those with underlying conditions, he emphasized. 

Fauci spoke at a World Conference panel on “the Hope for a Vaccine”; the panel also featured speakers from the World Health Organization, the Geneva Graduate Institute and the Barcelona Institute of Global Health.

Three key technologies underlying the leading vaccine candidates

In his review of both infection and research developments in the United States, Fauci, noted that the US government has been supporting the development and rollout of six vaccine candidates, with the US government investing billions of dollars in clinical trials and production plans. 

Three separate platforms are being tested including: included vaccine technologies that use messenger RNA (mRNA); viral vectors, such as adenovirus; and protein subunits to provoke immune response. 

Five of the six vaccine candidates that have been supported by the US government are currently in Phase 3 trials, two since late July, with the number of Phase 3 trial participants ranging from 30,000 to 60,000, depending on the design of the trial. 

Fauci hailed the “major financial risk” taken by government investments that not only funded vaccine research, but also manufacturing and pre-purchase agreements,  in order to “save time without compromising safety or compromising scientific integrity.” 

United States Infection Rates Far Outpaced Europe’s – Although Right Now They Are Converging

In terms of infection trends, Fauci’s review highlighted the stark differences that have been seen between the United States and Europe in terms of their response to the virus and the overall pattern of infections.  

The United States did not shut down both outdoor and indoor spaces such as workplaces, parks, and grocery stores.  And so, the baseline of US infections never really dipped to the low levels seen by the European Union over the summer, he said.  Although as rates now resurge in Europe, they are in fact converging with those seen right now in the US. 

In the US, rapid reopening the country and the economy in the late spring, especially in the south states of Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and southern California  led to a summer-time peak in new cases of up to about 70,000 a day; this has now plateaued to around 40,000 to 50,000 cases a day – but may still rise yet again this winter. 

“As we’re getting into the cooler weather, we’re getting more and more cases so this looks like we’re going to have a difficult fall and winter,” Fauci said, adding that a potentially new surge in the US would now begin from a much higher overall rate.

US Sees Huge Asymptomatic Transmission and Big Racial and Ethnic Disparities
“Hope for Vaccine” speakers, including from left clockwise: Kate O’Brien, Malebona Precious Matsoso, Vasee Moorthy, Jeff Lazarus, Suerie Moon

A continuing feature of the virus – and challenge to its containment – are the very high-rates of asymptomatic transmission of the virus, he added.

“You don’t need to be coughing or sneezing, to transmit the infection. An important component that distinguishes this infection from so many other viral infections is that about 40-55% of people are asymptomatic.” 80% of people infected have mild to moderate manifestations that don’t require immediate hospitalization, while the other 15-20% have severe or critical manifestations of the virus that have a wide variability, where up to 25% of severe cases require mechanical ventilation. 

Along with that, he said: “One of the characteristics of this disease that is most disturbing is the extraordinary racial and ethnic disparities.”

Minorities groups such as African Americans, Latinos, Native Americans, Alaskan Natives and Pacific Islanders have a higher incidence of getting infected, in the US, he noted. 

This is primarily because of the nature of their jobs as frontline workers in the community, which means they are exposed to many more people in the course of their day.  It is also because of the higher incidence and prevalence of many underlying health conditions conditions among the same groups, which often live in more socio-economically deprived communities.  And these conditions,  in turn, lead to more severe outcomes from COVID-19.

“Including old age, which increases the risk of severe COVID-19 illness, obesity is emerging as an important co-morbidity, as well as diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and a variety of heart conditions,” said Fauci.  

After Approval, Vaccines Still Need to Demonstrate “Worthwhile Efficacy” – Vaccine Hesitancy Needs to be Addressed
Vasee Moorthy, Infectious Diseases Physician, Immunologist and Product Developer, Office of the Research and Development at the WHO

Even if a vaccine is demonstrated to be safe and effective, many more questions will still need to be answered about how effective the vaccine may really be.

There are several ways that vaccines can demonstrate “worthwhile efficacy,” said Vasee Moorthy, an R&D specialist at WHO.  

“Always bear in mind that we only know the real vaccine efficacy much later, when the vaccine has been given to many more people. We don’t want to inappropriately declare a winner based on one of the early results,” he said.

Phase 3 trials, and their follow-up, need to be looking at enough “endpoints” or indicators of disease and severe disease, between the groups randomized to receive the vaccine and those that received placebo.  With limited information on safety, she applauded the decision of pharma companies to “pause and reassess the situation whenever there are adverse outcomes during clinical trials.”  Adverse effects have so far caused pauses in two trials, run by AstraZeneca and Johnson&Johnson.  

The importance of combating vaccine hesitancy was also underlined, by Jeff Lazarus, Associate Professor at the University of Barcelona.

To combat hesitancy, trust in government needed to be strong, government health communication needed to be consistent and flexible, and leaders need to avoid the politicization of COVID-19 related issues – a pitfall into which many countries have fallen. 

“Communication should be two way with informing the public and promoting mutual understanding and acceptance. Trust in government and health officials can improve public cooperation with pandemic measures,” Lazarus said. 

Vaccine Allocation – Rich Countries Should Refrain From Consuming More Than Their ‘Fair Share’
Vaccine deals by country; Suerie Moon, Co-Director at Global Health Centre, Geneva Graduate Institute

With socio-economic, racial and ethnic disparities already being exacerbated by Sars-CoV-2 on a global scale, more equitable distribution of vaccine solutions will be all the more critical, said Suerie Moon, Co-Director of Research at The Graduate Institute of International and Development, who called for proper allocation of the vaccine. 

“In order to [ensure equitable access] you need a number of countries, particularly those who are wealthy and those that have the production capacity to refrain from trying to consume more than their fair share of vaccines,” Moon stated, remarking on reports that the US, Canada, UK, Japan, and the European Union have each secured access to a basket of vaccines that would provide enough volume to cover 100% of their populations, although it remains unclear which vaccines will prove safe and effective. It is likely that China also has adequate volume and manufacturing capacity to meet its domestic needs.  

She expressed hopes, nonetheless, that the there will be potentially a larger supply of vaccines that initially anticipated to be approved and manufactured in near term. And certain pharma companies have also made commitments to ensuring vaccine supply and technology transfer to other countries with less capacity, she said. 

The WHO and Gavi, Vaccine Alliance co-sponsored COVAX vaccine facility, is meanwhile a positive expression of multilateralism – drawing firm commitments to make purchase through the pool from over 171 countries representing 90% of the world’s population. That example of “vaccine multilateralism” will hopefully support a division of available vaccine supplies in a way that is more ethical and equitable, while cautioning that: “Vaccine nationalism and multilateralism operate side by side in a complex environment where it remains uncertain which vaccines will be successful, who will be getting access to them, and at what price.” 

Another “piece of the puzzle”, she added, is the need for “more emphasis on, and funding, for technology transfer on open data sharing platforms. That, she said, would ultimately help “expand the overall size of the pie.”

“There’s no point in having everybody fight for a small pie,” she warned.  “That’s not going to serve anyone’s needs. So I do think that in addition to money on the table; in addition to fair allocation, frameworks, equitable allocation frameworks, we need to make that pie bigger. We need the biggest eaters at the table to wait – until everyone has had a bite.”  

Image Credits: R Santos/HP Watch.

The COVID-19 pandemic will end at some point. But TB, tobacco use, air pollution and other lung diseases will continue to “steal the breath and life of millions of people every year”, unless we reimagine the future, said WHO’s director-general Dr Tedros Adhanon Ghebreyesus, appearing at the opening of the 51st Union World Conference On Lung Health in an all-start lineup with former US President Bill Clinton and Crown Princess Akishino of Japan .

“COVID-19 is reminding us all that life is fragile, and health is the most precious commodity on Earth. Together, we must harness the same urgency and solidarity with which the world is fighting COVID-19 to make sure everyone everyone can breathe freely and cleanly,” he said.

Bill Clinton, former US President

As COVID-19 shatters livelihoods, cripples economies and claims the lives of over a million people, the conference comes at an “important time” to redefine the future of the planet, said Clinton, another keynote speaker at The Union’s 100th anniversary event.

It was exactly a century ago that the Paris-based organization was founded in 1920 to end all suffering from tuberculosis (TB) and other lung diseases. Even today, despite the progress made since, TB remains the world’s largest infectious disease killer, claiming 4,000 lives a day.

“This crisis also gives us a chance to totally reimagine what our future will look like, what our societies, our economies and our healthcare systems [will] look like and how we relate to one another,” Clinton said Tuesday, at the weeklong event. Despite being on a virtual platform, this year’s conference features speakers from 82 countries around the world. 

“The path to an optimal post-COVID world is unlikely to be simple and quick. But we cannot simply revert to the status quo,” Clinton said.

The Union’s executive director José Luis Castro`

On a positive note, the world still has the capacity to deliver the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 despite the pandemic, emphasized The Union’s executive director José Luis Castro. Achieving SDG targets in time is especially feasible for TB, which is still the leading cause of death worldwide, even though it is preventable, treatable and curable. According to Castro, the SDGs are not ideas, but commitments world leaders must uphold “no matter what”. 

“Today, we have more knowledge, more technology, more resources and more connectivity than humanity has had at any other time in history,” said Castro. “We have the power to see that the Sustainable Development Goals are not just good ideas that get put aside when a crisis arises. But that these are commitments that we have made to each other, no matter what. It is up to us.”

Now is not the time to slow down, added Shannon Hadder, deputy executive director of UNAIDS, in her call for more aggressive investments in preventive therapy, infection control, health worker safety, scaled and modern contact tracing, and sufficient social and economic support to achieve it.

Given that HIV is the leading cause of death in TB patients, testing for TB in HIV patients and maintaining HIV treatment is particularly important, said Hadder. Even before COVID-19, 50% of TB cases in HIV-positive people were under the radar, she said, adding that a mere six month interruption in HIV treatment could trigger half a million additional TB deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa alone.

Building Back Better – Governments Must Foster Honesty & Integrity  

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general

Apart from transforming health care towards a more inclusive, affordable and equitable model, heads of state must restore their citizens’ trust through honesty, integrity and evidence-based decision-making, said Dr. Tedros. 

Fostering trust in the general public seems quite urgent given that almost 30% of the world is unlikely to accept a coronavirus vaccine – even if it were proven to be safe and effective – concluded a Nature survey just this Tuesday. The survey was based on responses from over 13,000 randomly selected adults across 19 countries that were heavily affected by COVID-19.

Governments must also be held accountable for the decisions they make, added Castro, noting that by March 2021, world leaders will only have two years left to deliver their pledge to ensure that 30 million people have access to TB treatment. According to Castro, there is still time to turn these promises into reality. 

“We cannot allow the pandemic to become an excuse for failing to deliver on the commitments we have made to end tobacco and air pollution,” added Dr Tedros. “Quite the opposite. The pandemic is showing us why we must work with even more determination, collaboration and innovation to meet those commitments.”

Image Credits: The Union.