July Likely to be Hottest Month Ever Recorded
Climate change 27/07/2023 •
Temperature around the Mediterranean Sea on 24 July.

July 2023 may have experienced temperatures last seen in prehistoric times, as climate scientists confirm that once rare heatwaves are now routine events. 

Record heatwaves have been seen this year from the US to India, and according to the latest analysis, this July may be the hottest ever recorded.  

Dr Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist at Leipzig University, says that July’s average global temperature is projected to be 1.3-1.7°C above the average July temperature experienced before humans began warming the planet by burning fossil fuels. This is hotter by 0.2°C than the previous record, set in July 2019.

“Not only will it be the warmest July, but the warmest month ever in terms of absolute global mean temperature. We may have to go back thousands, if not tens of thousands of years, to find similarly warm conditions on our planet,” Haustein said. 

European Union’s Earth Observation Programme, Copernicus, and UN’s World Meteorological Organization have also confirmed that the “first three weeks of July have been the warmest three-week period on record and the month is on track to be the hottest July, and the hottest month on record.”

Scientists attribute the record temperatures to the continued burning of coal, oil, gas and other human activities since the beginning of the industrial era. They are also clear that this is not the new norm: temperatures will continue to rise and extreme weather events will worsen until the world drastically cuts fossil fuel use and reaches net-zero emissions. 

Climate change makes heatwaves routine

Earlier this week an international team of scientists with the World Weather Attribution (WWA) released their analysis of the impact of climate change on this year’s multiple heatwaves spanning the Americas, Europe and Asia. 

Heatwaves hit parts of the US and Mexico, southern Europe and China this July. Both Death Valley in the US and northwest China saw temperatures exceed 50°C. In Europe, too, temperature records were broken in Spain. The analysis was clear: climate change is to blame for once rare heatwaves becoming routine occurrences now. And more is to come.  

The heatwave in China would have been about a one in 250-year event before accelerated heating, while maximum heat like that recorded in July 2023 would have been virtually impossible in the US-Mexico region, as well as in southern Europe, before human-made global heating set in, the WWA analysis found. 

“On the one hand, we really need to stop burning fossil fuels to stop these records from continuing to be broken. But we also need to adapt. We need to adapt because even when we stop burning fossil fuels tomorrow, we will not go back, it will not get cooler,” said Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in Climate Science at Imperial College London.

“We have to live with these and make it possible for people to live with these extreme conditions in summer because they are not rare. And the later we stop burning fossil fuels, the more frequent they become.”

Heat impacts on health set to worsen

Heatwaves are known to be silent killers; in Europe alone, an estimated 62,862 heat-related deaths occurred in 2022, according to a study published in Nature this July.

“Since the inception of the Lancet Countdown eight years ago, we have consistently seen an increase in the health impacts of climate change through our heat-related indicators: heat-related deaths among the elderly are rising; productivity is decreasing globally because of the heat, affecting people’s livelihoods and wellbeing,” said Dr Marina Romanello, who is the executive director of the Lancet Countdown on Climate Change and Health.

This year, news reports in central India linked dozens of deaths to the heatwave but the toll is yet to be confirmed by the government. With most countries lacking high-quality death records, it is easy for deaths linked to heatwaves to be underreported or dismissed.

“These heatwaves and wildfires are another reminder of the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect the planet on which all life depends,” World Health Organisation Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said of the ongoing extreme weather events in Europe. He called for immediate climate action. 

All eyes on COP28 negotiations

Later this year, world leaders will meet in Dubai at the annual climate conference, or Conference of the Parties (COP), now in its 28th year. This year’s COP has already come under intense criticism, as the negotiations will be chaired by Sultan al-Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. 

At a time when fossil fuels need to be phased out, and renewables ramped up at a record pace, the selection of an oil baron to head critical climate talks has evoked dismay among advocacy groups and climate activists. 

Stakeholders remain hopeful that the large-scale acceptance of renewable energy will receive financial support from governments and banks.  

“We are already seeing this exponential build-up of renewable energy happen. 2022 was a banner year for renewables and energy efficiency and we need to see that expanding and going even faster,” said Catherine Abreu, Executive Director of the advocacy group, Destination Zero. 

Image Credits: Copernicus, European Union, Karsten Haustein.

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