Global temperatures are expected to remain near record levels over the next five years, and there is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record.

This is the key takeaway from a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The temperature rise is expected to worsen the climate impacts on countries, their economies, and sustainable development.

“We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” WMO’s Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said.

There is an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average, which is commonly known as the pre-industrial era, after which the use of fossil fuels began on a large scale.

The Arctic region continues to warm at a higher rate than the global average, and that risks pushing up the rate of sea level rise.

This report comes a few months after WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2024 report, which confirmed that 2024 was likely the first calendar year to be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era. It was also the warmest year in the 175-year observational record of the world.

In 2015, following the Paris agreement, world leaders agreed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. But this report of the WMO now projects that there is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 °C.

For now, though the long-term warming that is an average of temperature over decades, typically over 20 years, remains below 1.5°C.

Rising global temperatures

The average global mean near-surface temperature that combines temperatures for both air and the sea surface is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher for each year between 2025 and 2029, when compared to pre-industrial era.

The report forecasts that there is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5°C shows that the warming is intensifying.

This forecast is up from 47% in last year’s report (for the 2024-2028 period) and up from 32% in the 2023 report for the 2023-2027 period.

The WMO reiterated that every additional fraction of a degree of warming matters. It drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers. It also worsens heating of the ocean and rising sea levels.

Fast warming Arctic region, wetter Sahel

The warming in the Arctic region is predicted to be more than three-and-a-half times the global average over the next five extended winters (November to March). This risks melting its large reserves of ice and pushing up the rates of sea level rise.

On the whole, the warming in the Arctic is projected to be at 2.4°C above the average temperature during the most recent 30-year baseline period (1991-2020).

This is likely to result in reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk, which are in the Arctic region.

Precipitation patterns are also projected to change, with wetter-than-average conditions projected for the semi-arid Sahel region in Northern Africa for the May-September period between 2025 and 2029, according to the report.

Similar conditions are predicted for northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia.

The South Asian region has also been wetter in recent years, and the report forecasts similarly wet periods for the 2025-2029 period.

However, drier-than-average conditions over the Amazon are predicted.

Continued monitoring is essential, but is under threat

The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5°C risks unleashing more severe climate change and extreme weather, and every fraction of a degree of warming matters.

“Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,” Barrett said.

However, with funding cuts to US federal agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), weather and climate observations available for climate reports has begun to fall.

Reports like this one from the WMO rely on multiple data sources from a range of organizations to validate their findings, which the defunding of NOAA has affected in recent months.

These reports are meant to provide policymakers with the updates they need ahead of the UN climate change conference, COP30, that will take place later this year.

This is an important COP as it will consider updated climate action plans from countries known as Nationally Determined Contributions, in which countries list the actions that they commit to taking to cut down their carbon emissions.

This report is produced by the UK’s Met Office, which is acting as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It provides a synthesis of the predictions from WMO-designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres around the world.

Image Credits: WMO/João Murteira.