First UN assessment since the 2021 Glasgow pledge shows methane cuts falling far short of targets needed to meet climate goals. Accelerated action could yield $330 billion in annual benefits by 2030 through improved health and reduced crop losses.

Four years after more than 100 countries pledged to slash methane emissions 30% by the end of the decade, a UN assessment has found nations are on track to deliver barely a quarter of that target.

The Global Methane Status Report, released Monday at COP30 in the Brazilian Amazon city of Belém, found that current national commitments would cut global methane emissions by just 8% below 2020 levels by 2030.

The report concluded, however, that the 30% target remains technically achievable with increased investment and policy-driven reform -and it would yield some $330 billion in benefits to health and cost production – nearly double the cost of investment in mitigation.

While methane emissions are not a part of formal negotiations in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), it’s in fact the world’s second largest contributor to global warming, after CO2, and with a global warming potential 86 times greater.  

A precursor to ground-level ozone formation, methane is a contributor to air pollution-related deaths as well as reduced crop yields.  With an atmospheric lifespan of only about 12 years, reducing methane emissions can yield enormous co-benefits for health as well as reducing the pace of climate change.  

Collective, non-binding target 

The assessment comes as global methane concentrations have reached the highest levels in at least 800,000 years, more than 2.6 times pre-industrial levels, with the gas responsible for roughly one-third of present-day global warming.

The new report compiled by the UN Environment Programme is the first comprehensive stocktake since the Global Methane Pledge was launched at the UN climate summit in Glasgow, COP26.

The Global Methane Pledge, a non-binding political commitment signed by 159 countries, set a collective global reduction target rather than assigning specific cuts to individual countries or sectors, leaving nations to develop their own strategies and action plans. 

“Slow climate action means that the multi-decade average of global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C within the next decade,” Ruth do Cutto, deputy climate change chief at UNEP said at a press briefing launching the report. “We must make sure that this overshoot is as short and as low in temperature as possible, and we cannot do that without curbing emissions of methane, which is responsible for one-third of today’s global warming.”

Methane’s potency as a greenhouse gas, combined with its relatively short atmospheric lifespan, makes cutting emissions one of the fastest ways to slow near-term temperature rise, often called an environmental “hand brake” by climate experts. “Lack of time is our biggest challenge,” said COP30 President Ana Toni, noting that slashing methane emissions “delivers the fastest results” for slowing warming.

Full deployment of what the report calls “maximum technically feasible reductions” could still cut emissions 32% below 2020 levels by 2030, even surpassing the pledge target.

These measures would cost an estimated $127 billion annually but deliver benefits valued at $330 billion per year by 2030, including preventing more than 180,000 premature deaths, avoiding 19 million tonnes of crop losses, and reducing global temperatures by 0.2C by mid-century.

“We’re on a highway to hell with the foot on the gas pedal,” Martina Otto, head of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition Secretariat, which produced the report with the UN Environment Programme, said at the launch event in Belém. 

“If we are heading towards the wall, you don’t just pull the handbrake a little bit. You pull it forcefully and fast. And I think that’s where we are right now,” Otto said.

Slow momentum, US wildcard

The 159 countries now signed to the pledge, up from just over 100 at launch, represent nearly half of global methane emissions. However, three of the world’s top five emitters remain outside the agreement: China, the largest overall source, India and Russia. China’s participation in a methane summit co-hosted with Brazil and the United Kingdom on the sidelines of COP30 marked a notable diplomatic shift, though Beijing remains outside the global methane pledge.

Since the pledge’s launch, projected 2030 emissions have improved modestly. Some 127 countries, representing 65% of Paris Agreement parties, now include methane mitigation measures in their latest Nationally Determined Contributions, a 38% increase from pre-2020 levels. New waste management regulations in Europe and North America, combined with slower-than-expected growth in natural gas markets between 2020 and 2024, have lowered forecast emission levels by 14 million tonnes compared with 2021 projections, UNEP found.

The emissions decrease documented in the report is relative to levels projected in 2021, not a net reduction. While methane emissions were on track to increase by 13% by 2030, that would fall to 5% if nations follow through on pledged cuts. Overall, global methane emissions continue to rise, reaching approximately 352 million tonnes in 2020 and projected to hit 369 million tonnes by 2030 under current legislation.

“If countries fully implement their existing methane plans submitted as of June 2025, global emissions could fall by about 8% this decade,” Otto said. “That would constitute the largest and most sustained decline in methane emissions ever recorded. So it works, but it doesn’t work fast enough.”

The report’s modelling does not account for the United States reversing its methane commitments. While the US was once a leading nation in advocating methane emissions cuts and a core author of the 2021 pledge in Glasgow, the Trump administration has rolled back domestic methane policies and pressured the European Union to delay implementation of new methane emissions regulations that would increase reporting transparency. Some US states, including California, have maintained stricter methane reporting requirements.

Agriculture, energy and waste lead methane-emitting sectors 

The UNEP report found that agriculture accounts for 42% of global methane emissions, the energy sector 38%, and waste 20%. The G20 countries plus the European Union and several other developed nations are responsible for 65% of total emissions.

The energy sector offers the largest mitigation opportunity, with 72% of technically feasible reductions by 2030 concentrated in oil, gas and coal operations. More than 80% of the total reduction potential across all sectors can be achieved at costs below $36 per tonne of CO2 equivalent, with many fossil fuel measures actually profitable because they capture gas that can be sold rather than vented or flared.

Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, said “reducing methane emissions is one of the most immediate and effective steps we can take to slow the climate crisis while protecting human health.”

Chloe Brimicombe, a climate scientist at the Royal Meteorological Society, linked methane emissions to more frequent and intense heatwaves, which kill nearly 600,000 people annually. “Heat puts immense stress on the body, particularly for children, older people and those with chronic illness,” she said, describing methane cuts as a “fast and effective way to help protect communities from heat-related illness and deaths.” 

“Reducing methane decreases the precursors of ground level ozone, reducing cardiovascular and respiratory disease immediately,” said Courtney Howard, an emergency physician and chair of the Global Climate and Health Alliance. “Cutting methane is a win-win for health and health systems now and into the future.”

‘On the radar’

Regional studies “continue to reveal significant underreporting of methane emissions, particularly within the fossil fuel sector,” the report found. Dan Jørgensen, European Commissioner for Energy and Housing, said nearly 90% of satellite-detected emission events still go unaddressed by governments and fossil-fuel companies.

Liz Thompson, climate ambassador of Barbados, called reining in these oversights a “matter of survival” for small island nations. “We need oil and gas companies to recognize the importance of cutting methane emissions by stopping flaring and leaks,” she said. “Over the next year, we must advance discussions so that COP31 can perhaps present a concrete proposal to initiate efforts that will lead to a legally binding agreement.”

Current methane-focused investment has reached $13.7 billion annually, up 18% in recent years but far below the $127 billion needed by 2030. Measures in the fossil fuel sector could be deployed at little to no net cost because operators can sell the captured methane, while costs for the energy sector overall represent just 2 to 4% of the industry’s 2023 income, according to the report.

“It shows that methane has made it onto the radar and that we’ve gained momentum, that cost-effective solutions exist today, essentially waiting to be brought to scale, and that the benefits are enormous,” Otto said. “We can do it, but we have to act much faster.”

China’s participation in COP30 methane summit marks a shift 

The report launch coincided with a “methane summit’’ co-hosted by Brazil, China and the United Kingdom on the sidelines of COP30. 

The summit launched a “Super Pollutant Country Action Accelerator” providing $25 million in initial funding for seven developing countries to establish dedicated national methane units, modelled on the successful Montreal Protocol ozone programmes.

China’s participation marked a diplomatic shift, as Beijing co-hosted the event despite remaining outside the Global Methane Pledge. The country is the world’s largest methane emitter, primarily from its massive coal mining sector.

“The summit not only underscores the critical role of controlling methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the global response to climate change, but also encourages all parties to share the policies and actions they have taken in the emission reduction process,” Huang Runqiu, China’s environment chief, said. “Climate change is a global challenge, and addressing it requires concerted efforts from the entire world.”

The UK also led a statement signed by Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Kazakhstan and Norway committing to drastically reduce methane emissions in the fossil fuel sector, including ending routine flaring and venting by 2030 and developing a “near-zero methane intensity marketplace” by 2026 to use trade measures to reward low-emission producers.

“The global methane pledge has had an impact. It supported the reshaping of national priorities,” Otto said. However, she noted the report had to exclude the latest round of national climate plans submitted after June 2025 from its modelling. “Obviously, we have seen new coming in, but we had to do the modelling at one point, and so that became our cut-off.”

Beyond 2030, the report warned that technical fixes alone will prove insufficient. Meeting 1.5C or 2C warming targets will require combining methane controls with broader energy decarbonisation and demand-side measures, including dietary shifts and reduced food waste, potentially cutting emissions 53% below 2020 levels by 2050.

“We can still make it,” Otto said. “But it will take a whole lot of additional effort. It’s not possible if we do it half-heartedly.”

With five years remaining until the 2030 target, “the choices made in the next five years will determine whether the world seizes this opportunity, unlocking cleaner air, stronger economies, and a safer climate for generations to come,” UNEP concluded.

Image Credits: Clean Air Task Force .