Uganda is set to declare an end to its Ebola outbreak on April 26 if no new cases emerge, Africa’s top public health agency announced Thursday. The country’s 83% recovery rate among confirmed cases significantly exceeds the typical 30-40% survival rate for Ebola outbreaks, with Uganda managing to contain the disease while simultaneously responding to mpox cases.

“We really keep our fingers crossed,” said Professor Yap Boum, Executive Director of the Institut Pasteur of Bangui, during the weekly Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention briefing. “The country will declare the end of Ebola.”

Boum, who delivered the briefing on behalf of Africa CDC Director John Kaseya, who was attending IMF-World Bank Spring meetings in Washington, also reported “promising news” on mpox, citing declining cases in several countries despite the disease’s continued spread.

“We can see a decrease in the decline in number of suspected cases, but also the confirmed cases,” Boum said. “This is due partly to Burundi, but also to some other countries.”

However, Malawi reported its first four cases of mpox on April 16, including a 2-year-old child. None of the patients had a recent travel history, indicating local transmission. The child’s case highlights what Boum called an “important opportunity” for countries to approve mpox vaccination for children between the ages of one and 12.

The Democratic Republic of Congo remains “the epicenter” of the continent’s mpox outbreak, though intensified community surveillance shows some positive trends, Boum said. Contact tracing has increased from an average of 1.7 to 7 contacts per case in recent weeks, indicating authorities’ surveillance of the outbreak is improving. 

“The Kivus are the place that carries the highest burden in internal number of cases,” Boum noted, adding that implementation of vaccination and other measures in this conflict-affected region of the Democratic Republic of Congo – where mpox has been endemic since at least the 1970s – would be “the turning point to the response in DRC and therefore in the continent.”

Boum also highlighted progress on a rapid diagnostic test for mpox that could deliver results in 15 minutes without requiring electricity, potentially replacing the current system that can take up to 30 days for results to reach patients, nullifying their efficacy to contain outbreaks. Africa CDC expects to receive updates on the performance of the rapid diagnostic tests in the second week of May, and anticipates improvement from the previous 23% sensitivity rate for accurate diagnosis, Boum said. 

As the continent slowly gets mpox under control, Africa CDC’s Emergency Committee will meet on May 17 to evaluate whether to maintain the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security declaration for mpox that was issued in August 2024.

The updates came as Africa CDC leadership attended IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington to discuss health financing amid funding cuts. Boum emphasized the need to increase domestic health financing, noting that only three of 44 African member states currently meet the Abuja Declaration target of allocating 15% of GDP to health.

Angola’s recent $5 million pledge to Africa CDC was cited as an example of “championing the Africa-led financing strategy,” particularly amid what Boum described as “an era where we need to do more with less” amid vast funding cuts from the largest supporter of the continent’s health systems – the United States – during Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office.

“This is an opportunity for our countries to follow the example of Angola, to increase the expenditure on health, especially considering the new era that we are in,” Boum said, adding Africa CDC leadership’s conversation in Washington will center on “how we should navigate considering the cuts that are happening.”

“Next week, when the Director-General will be back, we’ll have more outcomes on how Africa CDC, and the continent will benefit from this challenging environment,” Boum said.

Image Credits: Africa CDC.