WHO Refrains From Public Mask Recommendation – Health Workers Need Them First; Intensity of Virus Exposure May Drive More Serious COVID-19 Disease 06/04/2020 Elaine Ruth Fletcher Volunteer assembles 3D- printed face shields in NYC. The face shields are donated to and sanitized before use at local hospitals facing protective equipment shortages. WHO deferred any broad recommendation to the public on the use of face masks, even as more countries were recommending some kind of a face cover or protective mask to reduce COVID-19 transmission. World Health Organization Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stressed that health workers need to remain the key priority for the use of medical masks. Dr Tedros spoke at a press briefing on Monday, where Lady Gaga also made a special appearance to announce plans for a mass virtual concert, “One World – Together At Home” on Saturday April 18th, involving dozens of celebrity stars such as Sir Elton John and Paul McCartney. The event, in collaboration with Hugh Evans of Global Citizen, aims to raise money for the WHO’s COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund, particularly for test kits and protective gear to shield health workers in low- and middle-income countries from infection. In other key comments, WHO’s head of Emergencies Mike Ryan said there is growing evidence of a strong correlation between the “dose” of viral infection to which an individual is exposed and the severity of disease that they develop, but those questions need to be explored further by researchers. “We need to look at who is getting sick and is the type of exposure they are getting different?” said Ryan at the press briefing. “It’s not just looking at who is infected, but whether there are specific exposures that cause more severe infection. We need to have the serological-epidemiological studies to find out what the infectious dose is, and the dose of exposure, and severity of infection. “If someone is exposed to a high dose from another individual directly, or a surface that’s heavily contaminated, is that significant in terms of driving infection? We have seen that in many many other diseases in the past including cholera, Ebola and others.” Cloth Masks & Face Covers ? WHO Refrains From Comment Dr Tedros said that WHO would be issuing updated guidance on masks, which so far only recommends them for health workers; people who know they are sick; or people caring for the sick. “Use of general masks in the general population could exacerbate the supply for those who need it most. These shortages are putting health workers in real danger in some countries”, he said. However, he noted that in some crowded, low-income settings, where other social distancing and sanitation measures are difficult to maintain, then public mask use might be more justified, adding, “What is clear is that there is limited research in this area. We encourage countries that are considering the use of masks for the general population to study their effectiveness so we can all learn. Most importantly, masks should only ever be used as part of a comprehensive package of interventions.” The WHO Director-General offered no direct comment on the recommendations issued last week by the US Centres for Disease Control calling on the general public to wear cloth masks or other non-medical face covers. Israel also has called on the public to wear simple surgical masks, cloth masks, or cloth face covers when outside of the home, while Hungary and Austria made wearing of masks mandatory in supermarkets. Public health authorities in those countries say the universal wearing of masks seems to have been a factor that helped reduce high rates of disease transmission in countries like China, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. As growing evidence seems to support the fact that people who are either pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic may be unknowingly transmitting the virus, the Center for Disease Control (CDC) last week recommended wearing cloth face coverings in public settings, especially in places where adhering to social distancing guidelines are challenging, such as grocery stores and pharmacies. As part of the new CDC move, the US Surgeon General issued guidance on You Tube, explaining to the public how to make their own protective masks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=tPx1yqvJgf4&feature=emb_title The CDC recommendation exempts young children under age of 2, people with trouble breathing, or people who are unconscious, incapacitated or otherwise unable to remove a face covering without assistance. And while it is hoped that the pervasive use of face coverings would slow the spread of the virus by carriers who are unaware that they are infected, masks will only be effective when supplemented by frequent hand cleaning with alcohol-based hand sanitizer or soap and water, CDC stressed. As shortages in medical supplies continue, experts stressed that medical masks, particularly high-performance N-95 masks should be mainly reserved for the healthcare workers who are on the frontlines of the pandemic. In that vein, New York City authorities have been sending SMS messages to city residents that read: “New Yorkers: Wear a face mask when you go outside and near others. It can be a scarf, a bandana or one you make at home” However, the messages added the caveat: “The city urges you to save medical masks for our healthcare workers and first responders who truly need them.” Yet the new US recommendations were not without dissonance, reflecting the hesitations that some members of the public also might have over mask use, beginning with the President himself. “With the masks, it is going to be a voluntary thing. I am choosing not to do it,.” Donald Trump remarked in a press briefing after the White House issued its own recommendation echoing that of the CDC. Lockdowns Proving Effective for COVID-19 Control- But Exit Strategies Key to Economies As regards lockdowns, the main disease control tool being used, Ryan said “lockdowns in many situations are proving effective in dampening outbreak, but those lockdowns are causing economic hardships. [We need ] a more sustainable way.” He stressed, however, that any effort to lift lockdowns will require a “stepwise approach” by governments, with careful consideration of those restrictions that can safely be lifted without recharging the infection cycle. Among the parameters that are important to consider are hospital capacity; the “doubling rate” – that is the number of days over which the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases are doubling; as well as the proportion of COVID-19 test sample that are testing positive. “You need to look at doubling rate and positivity rate,” said Ryan, citing as one example of the latter, Korea, where 2-6% of samples are testing positive and restrictions on economic activity and public movements are relatively relaxed, as compared to New York City, where 37% of testing samples are turning out to be positive. “A carefully calibrated stepwise approach is the safe path out of lockdown.” And once lockdowns are lifted, other tactics will become all the more important, he stressed. Those include: “active case finding, testing, isolation of cases, quarantine and strong community education around physical distancing.” WHO Welcomes Costa Rica Overture on Patents Pool for COVID-19 Therapies Carlos Alvarado Quesada, President of Costa Rica In his remarks on Monday, Dr Tedros also said that he “supported” the proposal by the President of Costa Rica, Carlos Alvarado, to create a global pool of rights to COVID-19 therapies, and would be working to finalize its details. The WHO Director General had responded positively to the overture last week in a Tweet, but this was the first time that he made a more formal comment on the developing initiatives around an international patent pool by Costa Rica, which was also backed last week by the UN-supported Medicines Patent Pool. “I want to thank the Medicines Patent Pool and UNITAID for the initiative they announced last Friday to include medicines and diagnostics for COVID-19 in their licensing pool,” he said. In a parallel move, the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers (IFPMA) and Associations on Monday released a statement responding favorably to the Medicines Patent Pool’s move. “While we are not aware of any instance to date where intellectual property management has been an impediment in the global response to this pandemic, proposals for voluntary pooling of intellectual property assets, including the decision of the Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) to temporarily expand its mandate to include health technologies related to COVID-19, adds to the arsenal of options available to companies when establishing access to any potential COVID-19 product,” said Thomas Cueni, director-general of IFPMA. Cueni added that the biopharma industry “recognized there was no ‘one-size fits all’ approach” to supporting research and development, and access efforts. Thus, the industry was “open to explore innovative approaches and partnerships to facilitate further R&D to develop new medicines and vaccines for patients suffering from COVID-19 and to expand access.” Dr Tedros also thanked the President of Costa Rica, Carlos Alvarado, and Health Minister Daniel Salas for submitting the proposal to create a pool of rights to diagnostics, treatments and vaccines, with free access or licensing on “reasonable and affordable terms.” “Muchas gracias, Mr President. I support this proposal, and we are working with Costa Rica to finalize the details,” added the WHO Director-General. “More than 70 countries have joined WHO’s Solidarity Trial to accelerate the search for an effective treatment. And about 20 institutions and companies are racing to develop a vaccine. WHO is committed to ensuring that as medicines and vaccines are developed, they are shared equitably with all countries and people,” he added. India bans Hydroxychloroquine Exports – Following Despite US Efforts to Access Supplies Despite the calls for global solidarity, individual countries continued moves to restrict exports of certain supplies and medicines viewed as potentially critical. Over the weekend, India banned all export of the drug hydroxychloroquine, a drug currently approved for the treatment of immune disorders such as lupus, but also viewed as a potential remedy for COVID-19. The Indian limitation on exports followed a new, and unprecedented recommendation by a National Task Force for COVID-19, led by the Indian Medical Research Council, on the use of hydroxychloroquine as a prophylactic for asymptomatic healthcare workers involved in the care of suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19, as well as for asymptomatic houseold contacts of laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases. Over the weekend, the Indian Ministry of Health and Family Welfare issued a more formal guidance permitting the off-label use of hydroxychloroquine with the antibiotic azithromycin in COVID-19 for patients in intensive care or with severe respiratory disease. “The export of hydroxychloroquine and formulations made from hydroxychloroquine shall remain prohibited, without any exception,” stated the order by India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade in the wake of the national policy directives. The Indian export ban was imposed despite US President Trump’s call this weekend with Indian PM Narendra Modi during which Trump urged the release of “the amounts that we ordered”. Although hydroxychloroquine’s safety and efficacy for treating COVID-19 have not been demonstrated, various countries, including India and the US, have incorporated the antimalarial drug into their national containment plans. The pharmaceutical industry is not waiting for the final evidence either. It has already made commitments to ramp up production of the drug. Pharmaceutical giants like Novartis, Bayer, Teva and Mylan NV, amongst others, have all pledged to contribute some 220 million tablets, by mid-May, more than half of which will be donated by the Swiss-based pharma firm Novartis. New York may be Reaching Plateau – Africa doing “Well” So Far In Response In terms of pandemic trends worldwide, it appeared that New York may be near the apex of its infection wave, or already plateauing, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said on Sunday. New York City’s daily number of deaths dropped for the first time in weeks from 630 on Saturday to 594 on Sunday, and the number of new hospitalizations was halved overnight. “The number of deaths over the past few days has been dropping for the first time. What is the significance of that? It’s too early to tell”, Cuomo said in yesterday’s speech. “Three or four days” may be needed to see whether the death rate is actually decreasing. Some 4,150 people have died among the 122,031 confirmed cases in the USA’s epicentre, the Governor said. However, cases are rising fast elsewhere in the US – and President Trump is facing mounting pressure from healthcare groups to put a national shelter-in-place order. So far, stay at home orders have been up to state governors’ discretion. Yesterday, Texas officials installed COVID-19 Checkpoints at the border with Louisiana. Vehicles are screened at all roadways crossing into Texas including interstates .Commercial motor vehicle traffic will not be obstructed, says Louisiana’s State Police. Louisiana’s case count shot up, almost doubling over the past weekend. Africa has been doing “well in the outbreak response so far,” said Mike Ryan, WHO Executive Director of the Health Emergencies Programme, at today’s press conference. Even so, the number of cases in the African region have doubled over the past last week, with a total of some 9 200 cases as of Monday. There were even more worrisome trends in some countries; the number of infected people in Guinea, Niger and Cameroon doubled over the past 2-3 days, a faster pace of growth than most other countries today. South Sudan also reported cases of COVID-19 for the first time, according to the latest WHO Situation Report. Still, some African countries still only have imported cases, leaving a window to contain further disease expansion, said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s Technical Lead for the COVID-19 outbreak, at Monday’s press briefing. Responding to a journalist’s suggestion in a TV interview last week that Africa could be the ideal test ground for a possible COVID-19 vaccine, Dr Tedros said, “Africa can’t and won’t be a testing ground for any vaccine.” He described the remarks as a “hangover from a colonial mentality.” “It was a disgrace, appalling, to hear during the 21st Century, to hear from scientists, that kind of remark. We condemn this in the strongest terms possible, and we assure you that this will not happen,” he added. The offensive remarks were made during a discussion on French TV channel LCI, as Camille Locht, head of research at Inserm Health Research group, talked about a possible vaccine trial in Europe and Australia. Jean-Paul Mira, head of intensive care at Cochin hospital in Paris, then said: “If I can be provocative, shouldn’t we be doing this study in Africa, where there are no masks, no treatments, no resuscitation? “A bit like it is done elsewhere for some studies on AIDS. In prostitutes, we try things because we know that they are highly exposed and that they do not protect themselves.” Mr Locht nodded in agreement at this suggestion, and said: “You are right. We are in the process of thinking about a study in parallel in Africa.” Cochin later apologized for the remark. There is still a window of time in Africa, as some countries only have imported cases, rather than local transmission. Spain & Italy Stabilizing – UK Public Warned to Prepare for Worst In the United Kingdom, the public was warned to prepare for the worst as cases were still rapidly increasing, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson was moved to the intensive care unit Monday night, following ten days of COVID-19 self-quarantine and a deterioration in his health status. Concurrently, Queen Elizabeth II addressed the nation in a rare, and well-received speech on Sunday. Spain’s cases and deaths continue to fall for the fourth day in a row, as the Spanish government continued to bolster its efforts on testing, including with the rollout of new rapid tests. “Throughout the day, the first part of a million rapid tests will be received by the Autonomous Communities,” said Spanish Health Minister Salvador Illa. In an effort to counter the economic effects of the Covid-19, the Spanish government also announced plans to guarantee a universal basic income to all citizens. Italy’s infections rates also seemed to be finally declining, after the numbers first began to plateau over the past week. With the flattening of Italy’s curve following a month of lockdown, the Italian authorities were debating if and how to let some members of the workforce return to work, focusing first on people who could be tested and found to have antibodies against COVID-19. Lately, Belarus has witnessed the most rapid growth of coronavirus in Europe, with cases having doubled in only three days. There is no need to stop normal daily life, said the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko president in an interview with The Times, who even recommended a glass of vodka for lunch to citizens. The Eastern European country has not imposed a lockdown and has not closed its borders. Belarus currently has some 560 cases. Today, Japan announced a national state of emergency after the country experienced the highest daily jump in cases on Sunday, with numbers soaring to 1000 cases. Many of Tokyo’s cases are untraceable, said Governor Yuriko Koike said in a livecast YouTube video on yesterday, according to a report from Reuters. Total cases of COVID-19 as of 6:55 PM CET, with active case distribution globally. Numbers change rapidly. Image Credits: HP-Watch/G Ren, Africa CDC. EMA Releases Guidelines For Compassionate Use of Remdesivir for COVID-19 03/04/2020 Grace Ren The European Medicines Agency on Friday issued new guidance supporting the use of Gilead Sciences’ antiviral remdesivir as a COVID-19 treatment under compassionate use programmes. The new EMA guidelines on remdesivir recommend its compassionate use in adult COVID-19 patients experiencing severe disease requiring invasive mechanical ventilation. Such compassionate use programmes are set up by individual country governments to allow patients suffering from life-threatening diseases access to experimental treatments that have not yet received full marketing approval. However, the EMA issued specific guidance for remdesivir after Estonia, Greece, the Netherlands, and Romania requested an opinion from the agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) on compassionate use protocols. While large, randomized clinical trials remain the “gold standard” for assessing the safety and efficacy of investigational treatments, the EMA acknowledged the need for a ” harmonised approach to compassionate use in the EU to allow access to remdesivir for patients who are not eligible for inclusion in clinical trials,” said Harald Enzmann, chair of the CHMP in a press release. The CHMP further encouraged Gilead to make remdesivir available in a “fair and transparent” way to all EMA Member States that wished to take part in clinical trials or use the drug under compassionate use. The EMA move came as controversy continued to swirl around Gilead’s rights to remdesivir in light of growing demand for the investigational treatment. Medicines access advocates have argued that exclusive patent rights on COVID-19 technologies could result in shortages of essential new treatments or vaccines in an accelerating global crisis. The company just opened an “expanded access” program after temporarily suspending its own “compassionate use” program due to an overwhelming flood of requests from COVID-19 patients unable to enroll in clinical trials. Under the expanded access program, hospitals and physicians can apply for emergency use of remdesivir for multiple severely ill patients at the same time. Gilead’s own “compassionate use” program will continue, but enroll only pregnant women and children, Gilead CEO Daniel O’Day wrote in a statement. Medicines Patent Pool Expands Mandate to Support Establishment Of IP “Pool” for COVID-19 Technologies Meanwhile, the respected Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) threw its support behind a global initiative to create a World Health Organization-led “pool” of intellectual property rights for COVID-19 technologies, saying that it could help facilitate efforts to make key COVID-19 technologies more widely available to countries as they come to market. The UN-backed Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) works as an intermediary between pharma companies and global health agencies such as WHO and UNAIDS, to increase access to treatments for HIV/AIDs, hepatitis C, and tuberculosis. MPP negotiates with patent holders for voluntarily licenses of their products to MPP, which then “pools” the intellectual property rights so that generic manufacturers can enter the market. While primarily focused on medicines access, the MPP Governance Board temporarily expanded its mandate on Friday to include all potential COVID-19 health technologies, which could potentially include diagnostics and vaccines. With support from Unitaid, MPP’s founding organization, this allows the organisation to contribute IP and licensing expertise on any relevant COVID-19 products to the World Health Organization. Unitaid’s Board issued an open letter last week supporting Costa’s Rica’s call for the WHO to create a pool of patents for COVID-19 related technologies. “In these difficult times, the MPP Board recognises the important role that MPP can play to increase access to life-saving products for those who need them most. And importantly, with time of the essence, to ensure that we make use of the expertise and mechanisms that already exist,” said Marie-Paule Kieny, chair of the MPP Board, in a press release. “The Medicines Patent Pool, set up and funded by Unitaid a decade ago, has a proven track record and is immediately available to the WHO to begin this urgent work,” said Marisol Touraine, chair of the Unitaid Executive Board, reiterating Unitaid’s support for a global “pool” of intellectual property rights. The organisation aims to follow the lead of WHO, which is currently exploring with other stakeholders the implications of a global “pool” of intellectual property rights, a spokesperson for MPP told Health Policy Watch. 140 Organizations, Researchers, & Educators Call On WIPO To Ensure Intellectual Property Frameworks Support COVID-19 Response In a parallel move, some 140 organizations, researchers, educators, and students called on the World Intellectual Property Organization to provide clear guidance to governments on using intellectual property laws to support the COVID-19 response. “The COVID-19 pandemic has shone a bright light on how important intellectual property limitations and exceptions can be to development and human flourishing,” the organizations stated in an open letter to WIPO Director General Francis Gurry. For example, data sharing has facilitated cross-border collaboration on COVID-19 research. Schools, universities, libraries, museums, and other research institutions are transferring materials online in the wake of widespread closures. However, remote access to such materials is only available where copyright laws permit. WIPO, as the leading agency on global intellectual property, should step in and issue guidance to governments in response to any thorny “intellectual property issues that the coronavirus is raising,” the organizations say. The letter suggests WHO take four steps: Encourage WIPO member states to take advantage of intellectual property flexibilities to increase access to protected works for online learning and research; Request right holders to remove licensing restrictions that inhibit remote learning, research, and access to culture to both help address the global pandemic and minimise disruption caused by it; Support the call by Costa Rica for the World Health Organization to pool intellectual property rights for all COVID-19 related technologies and promote use of the Medicines Patent Pool; Support countries’ rights to enact and use exceptions to trade secret and IP rights to facilitate access to data and technologies needed to increase equitable access to COVID-19 technologies. Image Credits: Medicines Patent Pool. COVID-19 Infections Hit One Million Mark; Countries Must Protect Health & Livelihoods During COVID-19 Pandemic Say WHO and IMF 02/04/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay As the global count of COVID-19 cases hit the sobering 1 million mark Thursday midnight, countries should not have to face the choice of protecting lives or protecting livelihoods, World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a Friday press briefing. More than half of the new cases reported worldwide were still in WHO’s Europe Region, but an explosion of cases in low- and middle-income countries points to a looming health and economic crises in some of the world’s weakest health systems. “We know that this is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic,” said Dr Tedros. “The restrictions many countries have put in place to protect health are taking a heavy toll on the income of individuals and families, the economies of communities and nations”. Countries around the globe have enacted widespread lockdowns in an effort to slow the spread of the virus, forcing businesses and employers to close or scale back operations. Millions of workers, particularly day wage workers, have lost their jobs overnight. “This is a crisis like no other, never in the history of the IMF we have witnessed the world economy coming to a standstill,” said Georgieva. “We are now in recession, it is way worse than the global financial crisis.” Of particular concern are “emerging markets” in developing countries, said IMF’s Georgieva, which are hardest hit and have less resources to protect themselves from both the virus and the global recession. Since the beginning of the pandemic, nearly US $90 billion in capital has left such emerging economies. “Many countries are facing this dilemma of do they provide support to people to survive, or fight the virus,” said Georgieva. “We want to fight this false dilemma.” “The issue of debt in developing countries must be addressed urgently,” she added. The IMF is providing debt relief for its poorest countries through a catastrophic containment relief trust support. Along with the World Bank, the IMF is also calling on bilateral creditors to place a moratorium on official debt payments to provide space for countries to address immediate priorities. Georgieva’s message on debt echoed the moratorium on debt for developing countries put forward by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTD) in Monday’s $2.5 trillion coronavirus crisis package for developing countries. So far, more than 90 countries have applied for emergency financing from the IMF. Rwanda’s request was granted today – and two other African countries requests will likely be approved today, said Georgieva. The IMF aims to double the normal amount of emergency financing offered to countries. On where the funds should be directed in the short term response, Dr Tedros said that governments should be strengthening the foundations of the health system, paying their healthcare workers and removing financial barriers to care, and setting up social welfare support for the most vulnerable. The WHO also voiced their concern today about lifting restrictions too quickly, and the importance of developing effective transition strategies as outbreaks in countries begin to dampen. “If countries rush to lift restrictions quickly, the coronavirus could resurge, and the economic impact could be more severe and prolonged”, said Dr. Tedros. “We don’t want to have cycles of lockdown and release. This is not what anybody needs right now. The way to avoid that is a transition strategy to get ahead of the virus . Like this, we can protect our economies”, said Mike Ryan, Executive Director of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme. COVID-19 Surge Past 1,000,000 Cases Worldwide COVID-19 infections hit the one million mark on Thursday evening, according to latest reports by Worldometer, an independent digital team tracking case counts by official national and global sources. COVID-19 hits the one million mark today. More than half of the new cases worldwide over the past 24 hours were still being recorded in WHO’s European region. New cases in Europe totaled 38 809, with Spain, Germany, France, Italy and the UK accounting for almost three quarters of new cases. As France approached the tipping point in demand for intensive care units, a National Ethics Consultation Committee had established “ethical support units” to “help doctors make difficult choices about which patients with “COVID-19 to treat in intensive care”. A summary of the new guidance was also published in English by the British Medical Journal. In the Americas, meanwhile, there were 28 161 new cases over the 24-hour period between 1 April -2 April, largely in the United States. As the USA’s numbers continue to increase to almost 245,573 confirmed cases, the Governor of Florida finally bent to national directives and issued stay-at-home orders for state residents yesterday. Overall, almost 90% (290 million people) of the USA’s population scattered across 37 states have received orders to remain at home. Indian Authorities Call For Provision of Food, Medical Facilities & Clean Drinking Water to Internal Migrants Trends in India as of 13:04 CET. Confirmed cases increase exponentially. Logarithmic curve shown. As India witnessed a massive internal migration of laborers from cities to their rural homes in response to a nation-wide lockdown, India’s Chief Secretary of State, Preeti Sudan, issued an order on behalf of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, calling on State Governments to provide adequate medical facilities, food, clean drinking water and sanitation for people on the move. The “anxiety and fear of the migrants should be understood by the police and other authorities and they should deal with the migrants in a humane manner,” stated the order, based on directives issued by India’s Supreme Court. She called on “all concerned to appreciate the trepidation of the poor men, women and children and treat them with kindness.” The migration was occurring as South East Asia experienced a 7-fold increase in new cases in just 24 hours (31 March–1 April). Just three of South-East Asia’s 11 countries, including India (2640), Indonesia (1986) and Thailand (1978) account for about 96% of the cases reported in the region so far. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier announced $US 24 billion package to support India’s vulnerable populations during the COVID-19 crisis; the PM-CARES Fund is supposed to include free food rations for 800 million disadvantaged people, cash transfers for 204 million poor women, and free cooking gas for 80 million households. The fund is being financed by various contributions from other government branches, such as the military and the railways authority, as well as by contributions from government employees and celebrities. Africa’s cases have also increased exponentially in the past week, according to a weekly bulletin the WHO African Regional Office. In comparison to two weeks ago, new cases have almost doubled in the past week (185%), with three more countries reporting COVID-19 (Botswana, Burundi, and Sierra Leone). Currently, most member states in the WHO Africa region (42/45) have confirmed cases of COVID-19. The African region has exceeded 7000 cases today, says Africa’s Centre for Disease Control. Total cases of COVID-19 exceed 1 million as of 7:01:32 PM CET, with active case distribution globally. Numbers change rapidly. New Guidance Issued For Preventing COVID-19 In Refugee And Migrant Camps A new strategy called “shielding”, that aims to limit transmission of COVID-19 in migrant and refugee camps, has been proposed by the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine’s Health in Humanitarian Crises Centre. The strategy recommends that people at high-risk from COVID-19 be identified and separated from other camp members in so-called ‘green-zones’ for an extended period of time, so as to reduce their risks of serious illness and possible death. The zones, ideally, would be located as close as possible to primary health care and other essential services, to minimize their need for movement. The guidance notes that the kinds of ‘stay-at-home’ orders and self-isolation tactics that have been widely adopted in developed countries are unworkable in migrant camps and camp-like settings. And at the same time, overcrowding, poor access to safe water, sanitation and limited access to health services could also lead to very high rates of infection among camp residents. In the guidance, high-risk individuals are defined as those over the age of 60, as well as individuals that have low immunity due to genetic conditions or chronic diseases (e.g. HIV) or non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as high blood pressure, lung diseases or cancers. “Green Zones” can be established at the household level, as well as at the neighborhood level, or as part of a broader community approach. “Green Zones” can in fact be established at the household level, for older or weaker family members, as well as at the neighborhood level, or as part of a broader community approach – depending on the characteristics of the migrant camp or settlement, the document suggests. The guidance document suggests that “social care committees” can coordinate the shielding response and facilitate acceptance of and adherence to the shielding measures. Grace Ren, Tsering Llamo, and Zixuan Yang contributed to this story Image Credits: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , COVID-19 India , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. UN Climate Conference Postponed Until 2021 Due To COVID-19; Experts Debate Pandemic’s Impact On Climate Action 02/04/2020 Elaine Ruth Fletcher & Svĕt Lustig Vijay Iceberg melting in Iceland The critical UN Climate Conference of Parties (COP26) that was scheduled to take place in Glasgow, in November, has been postponed until 2021 as a result of the COVID-19 emergency. “The COP26 UN climate change conference set to take place in Glasgow in November has been postponed due to COVID-19,” stated an official message by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to UN member states and observers. “This decision has been taken by the COP Bureau of the UNFCCC, with the UK and its Italian partners. Dates for a rescheduled conference in 2021, hosted in Glasgow by the UK in partnership with Italy, will be set out in due course following further discussion with parties. In light of the ongoing, worldwide effects of COVID-19, holding an ambitious, inclusive COP26 in November 2020 is no longer possible. Rescheduling will ensure all parties can focus on the issues to be discussed at this vital conference and allow more time for the necessary preparations to take place. We will continue to work with all involved to increase climate ambition, build resilience and lower emissions.” Patricia Espinosa, UNFCC Executive Secretary said that the decision had been reached after receiving “a detailed assessment from the representative of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the host of COP 26. Patricia Espinoza, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change. “COVID-19 is the most urgent threat facing humanity today, but we cannot forget that climate change is the biggest threat facing humanity over the long term”. Espinoza added. However, she named no future date for the meeting, saying only: “The Government of the United Kingdom will initiate consultations with Parties and stakeholders to identify a suitable new date for the Conference which will be presented to the Bureau for its endorsement,” said the official message to UN member states and observer organizations. The COP26 meeting has been viewed as particularly critical both in light of the speed at which climate change is occuring, and the huge gap in mitigation commitments to slow its current pace. As the five year mark since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries were due to submit new, more ambitious long-term goals to reduce emissions at COP26. Despite the delay, the head of the European Green Deal initiative of the European Commission, pledged to continue efforts towards dramatic reductions in carbon emissions by 2030. “We will not slow down our work domestically or internationally to prepare for an ambitious COP26, when it takes place”, said Frans Timmermans, executive vice-president for the European Green Deal in a statement. The European Commission’s plans are “on track” to present by September 2020 a detailed plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50-55% compared to 1990 levels, in line with EU’s 2030 ambitions, he added. “At home, we have put in place the key EU laws to meet our existing 2030 climate and energy targets. In the long-term, we have committed to climate neutrality by 2050 and proposed a climate law that will make this objective legally binding. The legislative work on this proposal has started, even in these challenging circumstances. “An impact assessed plan to raise the EU’s 2030 ambitions and cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50-55% compared to 1990 levels is on track, and the Commission will stick to that. The same goes for the work necessary to submit an enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC in line with our commitment under the Paris Agreement,” he said. Countries are “not off the hook and will be held accountable” to display greater climate ambition when the COP26 finally does convene, said Tassnem Essop, Executive Director of Climate Action Network International, a worldwide network of some 1300 NGOs in over 120 countries. “The postponement of the COP does not mean a postponement in climate ambition”, he said. Experts Debate Long-Term Impacts of Pandemic on Political Will For Climate Action Rooftop assembly of solar panels in New York City has given way to makeshift construction of COVID-19 hospital tents. Some observers of the COVID-19 emergency, including billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates, have recently asserted that the crisis can be a catalyst for more coherent action on other global challenges because it is facilitating innovation, and more direct, daily collaboration amongst scientists and between scientists and policymakers. “Until we get out of this crisis, COVID will dominate, and so some of the climate stuff, although it will still go on, it won’t get that same focus,” Gates said in a recent Ted Talk, but he added that, “As we get past this, yes, that idea of innovation and science and the world working together, that is totally common between these two problems. And so I don’t think this has to be a huge setback for climate.” Observed Espinosa in her statement on the COP-26 postponement. “This is an opportunity for nations to green their recovery packages, an opportunity to include the most vulnerable in those plans, and an opportunity to shape the 21st century economy in ways that are clean, green, health, just, safe and more resilient. In the meantime, we continue to urge nations to significantly boost climate ambition in line with the Paris Agreement.” Leading scientists and environmentalist have also pointed out that the illegal hunting and consumption of endangered wild animal species, such as the pangolin, were in fact drivers that contributed to the leap of the coronavirus from bats to other animals in China’s wild animal markets, and then to humans. Logically then, ecosystem stability should be considered more seriously by policymakers in the wake of COVID-19. “Nature is sending us a message,” Inger Andersen, head of the United Nations Environment Programme said in a recent interview, noting that some 75% of new infectious diseases originate from animals. Longstanding environmental campaigns to halt illegal wildlife trade and the destruction of habitats are all the more improtant now, so as to prevent future outbreaks like Covid-19. Still, the pandemic is also a bitter reminder of the barriers to coherent global action, as well as the fact that the public as well as most politicians tend to avoid dealing with long-term and unseen environmental health threats – at least until the moment when people are literally, dropping dead in hospital corridors. Writing in Foreign Policy, one senior official to former US President Barack Obama said that the extreme measures governments are taking on COVIVD-19 may have given hope to “climate activists that similarly ambitious policies might be possible to address global warming, which many consider a similar existential threat. “Yet that would be the wrong lesson to draw, as the very same barriers preventing an effective COVID-19 response continue to keep climate change action out of reach,” “said Jason Bordoff, a former U.S. National Security Council senior director in the Obama White House. “Cities across the world are shutting down businesses and events, at great cost. Yet the effectiveness of any one government’s action is limited if there are weak links in the global effort to curb the pandemic—such as from states with conflict or poor governance—even if the world is in agreement that eradicating a pandemic is in every country’s best interest,” he said. “Climate change is even harder to solve because it results from the sum of all greenhouse gas emissions and thus requires aggregate effort, a problem particularly vulnerable to free-riding,” added Bordoff, now a professor and founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. “The pandemic is a reminder of just how wicked a problem climate change is because it requires collective action, public understanding and buy-in, and decarbonizing the energy mix while supporting economic growth and energy use around the world,” said Bordoff. Cleaner Skies Now – Dirtier Ones Later Of course, COVID-19 may deliver some short-term climate benefits by “curbing energy use, or even longer-term benefits if economic stimulus is linked to climate goals — or if people get used to telecommuting and thus use less oil in the future,” Bordoff acknowleged. “Yet any climate benefits from the COVID-19 crisis are likely to be fleeting and negligible.” Historically, building political will around environmental goals is usually more difficult during periods of economic downturn, he added. “Historically, there is an inverse relationship in the United States and Europe between public concern about the environment and worries about economic conditions. Similarly, concern about economic growth has often caused China to ratchet back its environmental ambitions. Just last week, China was reportedly considering relaxing emissions standards to help struggling automakers,” he noted. A similar pattern is also emerging, in the United States. On Monday, the US Environmental Protection Agency announced that it would relax vehicle fuel economy standards for vehicles for model year 2021, as well as for model years 2022-2026, which had been approved under the Obama administration. The rules, which would lead to the release of 900 million more tons of CO2 every year, are being opposed by the State of Califorinia, but the Trump administration is also trying to strip states of the authority to enact stricter vehicle emissions rules. And last Thursday, the US Environmental Protection said that it would suspend enforcement of a wide range of environmental regulations regarding, air, water, wastewater and even hazardous waste emissions – until the COVID-19 crisis is over, noting that companies violating emissions rules might be excused from their violations if they were somehow associated to COVID-19. “During this extraordinary time, EPA believes that it is more important for facilities to ensure that their pollution control equipment remains up and running and the facilities are operating safely, than to carry out routine sampling and reporting” said EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler in a statement. “The Trump administration is cynically abusing this crisis to achieve its pre-COVID-19 goal of gutting US environmental regulations. The decision to indefinitely suspend the protections afforded by environmental laws will kill or compromise the health of large numbers of people”, warned Richard Pearshouse, Amnesty International’s head of Crisis and Environment, in a statement. -Tsering Llhamo and Zixuan Yang contributed to this story. Image Credits: Andrew Bowden, Patricia Espinosa C., Renovus Solar. COVID-19 Is World’s Biggest Challenge Since World War II, Says UN Secretary General 01/04/2020 Gauri Saxena & Grace Ren and Elaine Ruth Fletcher Temporary COVID-19 treatment unit being set up in Central Park, New York City The COVID-19 pandemic is the biggest challenge the world has faced since the Second World War, said United Nations’ Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. He spoke during the launch of a report on the potential socioeconomic impact of the outbreak, Shared Responsibility, Global Solidarity. Speaking from the UN Headquarters in New York on Tuesday, Guterres said that “the new coronavirus disease is attacking societies at their core, claiming lives and people’s livelihoods.” The economic fallout of the outbreak could trigger a recession of unprecedented scale, as up to 25 million jobs could be lost globally as well as a 40% reduction in global foreign direct investment flows. In his statement, Guterres also called upon the G-20 to move ahead with a special Africa initiative, discussed at the extraordinary G20 Summit last week. And he called upon developed countries more generally to bolster health systems and response capacity in lower income nations, saying that, “Otherwise we face the nightmare of the disease spreading like wildfire in the global South with millions of deaths and the prospect of the disease re-emerging where it was previously suppressed. “Millions and millions” could die in Africa without intervention, he later told France 24. Just a day later on Wednesday, the African Development Bank group approved a $2 million emergency grant for countries of the WHO African Region boost surveillance systems, procure and distribute laboratory test kits and reagents, and support coordination mechanisms at national and regional levels. The regional office of WHO Africa reported 3762 confirmed cases and 92 deaths on Tuesday night; South Africa remained the most heavily affected country with 1353 cases but Algeria had the most deaths at 35. The White House Predicts Over 100,000 Coronavirus Deaths in the US Meanwhile, top United States health authorities said that a “best-case scenario” for the pandemic would see the deaths of nearly 100,000 to 240,000 people in the United States. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, leading experts on President Donald Trump’s COVID-19 Task Force, issued the warnings during a White House press conference Tuesday night, with reference to projections produced by the Seattle-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME). Keeping the curve to the lower end of 100,000 deaths or less, will be contingent on effective enforcement of social distancing and other disease control measures, they stressed. Speaking at the press conference, President Trump warned Americans to brace themselves for a “very, very painful two weeks”, as he announced more severe nationwide measures to be implemented to curb the coronavirus. But he also pointed out that in the absence of such measures, the United States could face as many as 12.2 million deaths, according to projections by Imperial College London cited by Birx earlier in the briefing. Officials were quick to point out that the death projections are not static, given that hotspots like New York and New Jersey are pulling the estimates upwards, but in other states, such as California and Washington, authorities have managed to reduce infection transmission. The state of New York has emerged as the epicentre of the pandemic in the United States, recording over 75,000 confirmed cases and over 1,500 deaths, Governor Andrew Cuomo has said that the outbreak is not expected to peak for another three weeks. “I’m tired of being behind this virus. We’ve been behind this virus from day one. We underestimated this virus. It’s more powerful, it’s more dangerous than we expected,” he said in a press briefing earlier in the day. The United States currently has a total of almost 190,000 confirmed cases with over 4,000 deaths. A preliminary report by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated that 78% of coronavirus patients admitted in intensive care as well as 94% of those who died in the US had at least one underlying chronic condition. People with diabetes, lung disease and heart disease appear to be at higher risk of severe illness, CDC found, which is consistent with findings from Italy and China. As a vivid symbol of the expanding emergency, Mount Sinai Hospital system in New York City was set to open a field hospital in Central Park, in collaboration with Samaritan’s Purse. The tent hospital units, delivered from North Carolina, will provide overflow capacity for Mount Sinai’s COVID-19 patients, with 68 more beds. Italy Extends Lockdown Measures — Even As Infection Curve Plateaus Italy’s civil protection authority has reported that the number of reported coronavirus infections is rising at a slower rate — the country has recorded daily increases around 4-5% in the past 4 days, which is 3-4 times less than the rates recorded two weeks ago. Silvio Brusaferro, the president of Italy’s Higher Health Institute (ISS) told The Guardian “That doesn’t mean we’ve hit the peak and that it’s over, but that we must start the descent … by applying the measures in force”. In an effort to halt the continued rise in cases, lockdown measures currently in place have been extended till April 13; Italy now has over 105,000 cases, and has reported over 12,000 deaths, one of the highest national death rates from the virus. Over 15,000 people have also recovered. Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza said the new trend was a sign that measures are yielding results, but added it would be “unforgivable to assume this was a definitive defeat” of the virus. Customers queuing in Toulouse, France, as part of social distancing measures taken to reduce crowding in supermarkets during the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate of infection increases in Spain was also stabilizing somewhat following drastic containment measures. María José Sierra of the centre of health emergencies said “generally speaking, we can say that yesterday’s rise in cases, which was around 8%, tells us that we’re carrying on in the stabilisation phase of the pandemic”. The country has seen a dip in daily infection rates from 20% between 15 to 25 March to below 12% since then. However, in neighboring France, new infections rose overnight by 15%. In Switzerland, meanwhile, the Geneva University Hospital (HUG) announced that it was launching a study of serological samples, to be collected from among research volunteers, to examine the extend to which Swiss citizens and residents might be infected with the virus asymptomatically, as well as the degree to which exposure might have conferred immunity. As many as 83,300 cases, and 720 deaths, could be expected in Switzerland by 11 April 2020 researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich predicted in a paper published Wednesday on the preprint server MedRxiv. Switzerland currently has reported 17,139 confirmed cases and 378 deaths, although it is believed that many cases have gone unreported insofar as testing has so far largely been confined to people at high risk and with serious symptoms. For the country of 8.5 million people, this still ranks as one of the highest per-capita disease rates in the world, although deaths have remained comparatively low at about .02% of those confirmed ill. In the absence of social distancing interventions, up to 42.7% of the entire Swiss population would have been infected with COVID-19 by 25 April, the researchers also said. The assessments align with previous studies published on the benefits of “non-pharmaceutical interventions” such as closures and stay-at-home orders on slowing the spread of the virus. Cumulative cases and global distribution. Numbers change rapidly Concerns for Vulnerable Populations Increases As governments take measures to protect their citizens from the rising COVID-19 pandemic, experts were increasingly concerns about potential devastating effects on indigenous peoples, refugees, and others worldwide who lack formal citizenship rights in the countries where they are living. Four UN agencies released a statement Tuesday that called for the protection of those at “heightened risk,” including “refugees, those forcibly displaced, the stateless and migrants.” According to the statement, “many refugees live in overcrowded camps, settlements, makeshift shelters or reception centres, where they lack adequate access to health services, clean water and sanitation.” Up to three-quarters of the world’s 70.8 million forcibly displaced people are hosted in countries where health systems are “already overwhelmed and under-capacitated.” As one example, the 10 cases and 1 death reported so far in war-torn Syria may be a sign of a bigger crisis to come, Mark Lowcock, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator told the Security Council, warned the UN Security Council in a meeting Monday. “That is the tip of the iceberg,” he said in a UN press release, warning that only half of Syria’s hospitals and primary health-care centres were fully functional at the end of 2019. And while the UN has assisted in rehabilitating the Central Public Health Laboratory, pre-positioning medical supplies, and upgrading isolation units around the country; the fragility of the health system and critical supply chains further complicate COVID-19 measures. Cross-border deliveries of aid supplies between Turkey and north-west Syria have more than doubled compared to the same period last year to 2150 trucks per day. Some US $340 million has so far been received by the UN Office of Humanitarian Affairs under a US $500 million funding call. Meanwhile, as confirmed cases soar beyond 12,000 in South America, indigenous tribes in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have taken matters into their own hands in the face of what they call “a historic danger,” as quoted in the Guardian. The Xingu people in Brazil have sealed off roads into their reserve and are urging locals to leave only for emergencies, as the country’s number of confirmed cases topped 5500 and deaths rose to over 200. In Colombia, which has almost 900 confirmed cases so far, tribes have been self-isolating and outlawing visits to their ancestral lands while collaborating with local governments to procure adequate supplies. Isolated tribes living in areas with fragile health systems, are particularly susceptible to acute, highly infectious diseases. Outbreaks of measles, smallpox and flu viruses had a long track record of “decimating” indigenous communities. Some countries are taking more widespread social welfare measures for vulnerable populations. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a US$24 billion welfare package to provide free food rations for 800 million disadvantaged people, cash transfers to 204 million poor women, and free cooking gas for 80 million households for the next 3 months. Health Experts Revisit Benefits of Wearing Masks in Public As the intensity of coronavirus infections rises in many parts of the world, health experts are beginning to reconsider whether the general public should wear face masks after all. Until now, the World Health Organization as well as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have recommended the use of face coverings only for the sick or for health workers treating those who might be ill. However, CDC director Robert Redfield said that this recommendation is currently under review. The US CDC recommendation under consideration would specifically recommend fabric masks, or do-it-yourself type masks for the general public, reports the Washington Post. Medical grade masks such as surgical masks or N95 respirators – which are in desperately short supply around the world – would still be restricted to use by healthcare workers. At his press briefing on Tuesday, even President Trump has encouraged the public to cover their faces with scarves when they go out, so that masks may be reserved for healthcare workers. “I can tell you that the data and this issue of whether it’s going to contribute [to prevention] is being aggressively reviewed as we speak,” Redfield told NPR in an interview. Many prominent healthcare experts have weighed in on the issue, including former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb. In a paper he published with American Enterprise Institute, a conservative US policy think tank, Gottlieb recommended supplementing social distancing measures with the widespread use of facemasks, citing the large numbers of asymptomatic cases that go undetected. “Face masks will be most effective at slowing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 if they are widely used, because they may help prevent people who are asymptomatically infected from transmitting the disease unknowingly”, says Gottlieb, citing South Korea and Hong Kong as places where facemasks were widely used, and managed to successfully control the outbreaks. Similarly, other individual experts have advocated for the use of facemasks as a socially responsible insurance policy. And countries are beginning to act as well. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday issued a new order that anyone leaving their homes should wear a mask “or other face covering”, making it the first country outside China to adopt mandatory mask usage while out in public. Hungary this week also ordered people visiting supermarkets to wear facemasks in order to risk infection spread in venues that often remain crowded with customers. Street scene in France. Universal masking being reconsidered. Tobacco Industry Joins the COVID-19 Vaccine Race British American Tobacco (BAT), the world’s second largest cigarette maker, announced that it would launch an effort to develop a COVID-19 vaccine using tobacco plants, joining a global effort that has generated over 90 potential vaccine candidates so far. Using plant-based production, the company claimed in a press release that between 1-3 million doses of vaccine could be manufactured per week by June. The process works by first identifying and cloning an antigen – an immune-response generating portion of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 – into a tobacco plant. The antigen can then be purified from grown and harvested tobacco plants in as little as 6 weeks. The tobacco plant production method was used by BAT’s US bio-tech subsidiary, Kentucky BioProcessing (KBP), to successfully manufacture the Ebola treatment ZMapp in 2014. “KBP has been exploring alternative uses of the tobacco plant for some time. One such alternative use is the development of plant-based vaccines,” said David O’Reilly, director of Scientific Research at BAT. “We are committed to contributing to the global effort to halt the spread of COVID-19 using this technology.” However, the SARS-CoV-2 antigen that would supposedly be purified and used for the production, is still being evaluated in preclinical tests. Image Credits: Samaritan's Purse, Wikimedia Commons: Alteo31300. Strong Age-Linked COVID-19 Death Risk Confirmed By Largest-Ever Study Of Chinese Population Infected 31/03/2020 Grace Ren, Svĕt Lustig Vijay & Elaine Ruth Fletcher A new study examining data from nearly 90% of mainland China’s confirmed COVID-19 cases found that the death rate among people older than 80 was 13.4%, as compared to only .32% for people under the age of 60. Almost one in five patients over the age of 80 were likely to require hospitalisation, as compared with around 1% of people under 30, according to an analysis of a subset of 3,665 cases. The analysis, published Tuesday in the Lancet Journal of Infectious Diseases is the first large-scale study to account for long-presumed underestimation of mild or asymptomatic cases in death rate and hospitalization rate estimates. It is also the first to include data on infections among Wuhan expats who were airlifted out of the city at the outset of the lockdown, as well as cases linked to the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While the crude case fatality rate was 3.67%, the authors estimated that the true average death rate, including milder, under-reported cases, was around 1.38%. Based on an analysis of cases among Wuhan expats, the authors also proposed that accounting for all COVID-19 infections could yield an even lower infection-fatality rate of about .66%. The Lancet study examined a total of 70,117 laboratory-confirmed and clinically-diagnosed cases in mainland China, or about 80% of cases reported there so far, as well as 689 positive cases among people evacuated from Wuhan on repatriation flights and cases identified on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While still considerably higher than the death rates for seasonal flu (.01%), the 1.38% average case fatality ratio is significantly lower than the crude case fatality ratios cited by most sources until now, including the World Health Organization. However, the authors’ assumptions about the widespread circulation of asymptomatic infections also contradicts another large-scale study that examined that issue. The report of some 320,000 Chinese in Guangdong Province, found that only .14% of people tested in fever clinic screenings were infected with the virus. It is therefore likely that the true rate of mild and asymptomatic infections will continue to be debated until more large-scale serological studies are undertaken. “Our estimates can be applied to any country to inform decisions around the best containment policies for COVID-19,” says Azra Ghani, an author on the paper and professor at the Imperial College London, UK, in a press release. “There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention, but our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalisation is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal.” However, the authors caution that up to 50% to 80% of the global population could be infected with COVID-19 in the absence of any interventions, meaning that the number of people needing hospital treatment is likely to overwhelm even the most advanced healthcare systems worldwide. According to The Lancet study, after adjusting for underreporting of mild cases, older adults faced the highest risk of requiring hospitalization from the infection at 18.4%, compared to an estimated hospitalization rate of 3.4% in people in their 30s, and 1% for people in their 20s. The Lancet study, however, still contrasts sharply with hospitalization and mortality data from confirmed cases in some hotspots such as Italy and the United States. In Italy, WHO officials reported that up to 50% of those hospitalized for COVID-19 are under the age of 50. A report released by the US Centers for Disease Control earlier this month found that 38% of hospitalized cases in the country were under the age of 55. Case fatality and hospitalization rates can “vary slightly from country to country because of differences in prevention, control, and mitigation policies implemented,” said Shigui Ruan, an infectious disease modeling researcher at the University of Miami in a separate Lancet Comment on the study. Thus, each country’s hospitalization and death rates are ” substantially affected by the preparedness and availability of health care,” he added. A separate study published Monday by Imperial College, London estimated that across 11 European countries “Non-pharmaceutical interventions” such as case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, widescale social distancing and national lockdowns helped avert up to 59,000 deaths by COVID-19. Between 7-43 million individuals had been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 as of 28 March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population, the study concluded. The attack rate – or rate of new infections – caused by the virus is estimated to be highest in Italy and Spain, and lowest in Germany and Norway. BARDA Branch Of US Health Agency Takes Over Clinical Trials for 2 Vaccine Candidates Meanwhile, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) branch of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said that it would take over late-stage development of the first COVID-19 vaccine candidate to enter Phase I clinical trials, mRNA-1273. The federal agency will also step in to support early development of another potential vaccine with an eye to rolling it out for emergency use in the US by early 2021. Originally created through a collaboration between Moderna, Inc and the US National Institute of Allergies and Infections Diseases (NIAID), the company will now shift to collaborating with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), to move mRNA-1273 through Phase II and Phase III clinical trials. 3D print of a spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus In a parallel development, BARDA will collaborate with the Janssen R&D arm of the US pharma firm, Johnson & Johnson (J&J), to accelerate non-clinical trials and Phase I trials of their investigational vaccine, Ad26 SARS-CoV-2. The Phase 1 clinical trial is set to begin no later than fall of 2020 with the goal of making the COVID-19 vaccine available for emergency use in the United States in early 2021. At the same time, the agency is collaborating with J&J to make plans to produce up to 300 million doses of the vaccine every year for use in the United States. “Delivering a safe and effective vaccine for a rapidly spreading disease like COVID-19 requires accelerated action with parallel development streams,” said the BARDA Director Rick Bright in a press release. BARDA, as part of the HHS, can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials. Setting up processes now to run late-phase clinical trials and scale-up manufacturing rather than taking the more traditional sequential approach to vaccine development could “shave months off the timeline for vaccine development,” the agency claims. BARDA can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials – although it remains to be seen whether the patent rights associated with any successfully developed vaccines will be held by the US government or private companies. Depending on the terms and type of contract signed, HHS can do “pretty much anything,” James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International (KEI) said in an interview with Health Policy Watch. As one example, HHS could use federal funds to “buy-out” patents to contribute to a global “pool” of intellectual property rights, according to one KEI blog. “HHS/BARDA should explain what the contractual terms for data and patent rights were,” added Love. Experts Say COVID-19 Casts Risks From Climate Change & Environmental Degradation in Sharp Relief Meanwhile, looking towards the future, a WHO COVID-19 Special Envoy and the leader of the UN Development Programme’s Health and Development Group, warned that the world needs to meet critical climate and sustainable development goals in order to prevent the recurrence of further COVID-19 pandemics. “Most outbreaks are zoonotic,” noted Mandeep Dhaliwal – Director of UNDP’s HIV, Health and Development Group, speaking at a webinar on Tuesday organized by the global group, Health Care Without Harm. “We talk a lot about health system preparedness, readiness, response. But missing from that conversation are the environmental factors that result from human activity that cause those outbreaks. These are not addressed so we keep lurching from one outbreak to another.” The coronavirus, which scientists believe originated in bats, was likely transmitted to humans by wild animals, possibly a pangolin, a species that is hunted illegally and sold in live animal markets throughout Asia. Similarly, viruses circulating among gorillas and chimpanzees in Africa, hunted and sold as bushmeat, are believed to have sparked the 2014-16 West African Ebola outbreak as well as the HIV/AIDS epidemic. “The pace of zoonotic outbreaks is going to increase, and is going to be magnified in the ways that you saw with COVID-19,” Dhaliwal predicted, until stronger linkages were made to prevent the patterns of ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, which intensify human contact with wild animals, leading to higher risks of zoonotic infections. Conversely, she noted that environmental health risks such as air pollution “also make people more vulnerable to COVID-19,” as do climate-related health risks such as climate-induced food and nutrition insecurity. “COVID 19 changes everything from the way we work as a global community,” she said. “We will not be able to ignore this anymore – we need to do something about the human activity that is driving this [zoonotic infections], and those actions will have to come from outside the health sector. We need integrated solutions to address the climate crisis and zoonotic outbreaks.” Said David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on COVID-19. “This is an issue that requires all of the approaches that we developed in the sustainable development agenda, interconnectedness, working across all parts of society. The principles of the sustainable development have to be at the center of what we are trying to do. But can leaders manage this, while still having their full attention on their people and the awful political trade-offs that they are having to make?” According to Health Care Without Harm, the worldwide pandemic and the climate crisis, are converging health emergencies. “With one, disease spreads like wildfire. And with the other, wildfires and other impacts, spread disease. While at first blush these two crises are not necessarily related to one another, there are a series of coronavirus – climate crisis connections that are worthwhile exploring, as they reveal several common causes, synergistic impacts and shared solutions.” Rate of New COVID-19 Infections Potentially Slowing Down in Europe Europe is still COVID-19’s epicentre, with almost 32 000 new cases since yesterday and over 2 500 new deaths. However, there were nearly 5000 fewer new cases in Europe reported on 30 March compared to 29 March, according to Monday night’s WHO situation report. Europe currently has 392,757 confirmed cases and 23,692 deaths. “Italy and Spain are potentially stabilizing and it is our fervent hope that this is the case. But we have to continue to push the virus down”, said Mike Ryan, executive director of the Health Emergencies Programme, at a WHO press conference yesterday. Donning gloves in the hospital storage room, Lecco, Lombardy. (Photo: Fabio Fadeli) Italy, which has about 13% of the world’s confirmed cases, is experiencing a decrease in new cases, with only 4000 new cases on the 30th of March compared to last week’s average of 5 500 new cases a day. Yesterday, the number of new cases in Spain was 6549 in comparison to 8189 new cases reported on the 29 March. To help respond to the unmet and urgent needs to tackle COVID-19, today, the Spanish government approved the distribution of 300 million euros to Spain’s Autonomous Regions. Israel may also be seeing a slowdown in the increase in cases. Israel which currently has 4831 cases, reported only 448 new cases yesterday compared to the weekend average of 606 new cases a day. Switzerland on Tuesday recorded 16176 cases and 373 total deaths, 701 more than the previous day. Some 78 new deaths were reported, marking the largest daily increase in deaths in the last seven days. Blood tests that are also able to detect asymptomatic cases are being developed and deployed both in Zurich and Geneva. The University Hospital in Zurich plans to test all incoming patients, whether ill or victims of accidents, to further detect new cases. The country is testing roughly 13,600 per million people, putting its per capita testing rate at higher than even South Korea. In the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Iran leads with a total of 40 000 total confirmed cases. In an unexpected move last week, Iran rescinded approval for Médecins Sans Frontieres’ (MSF) COVID-19 intervention in Isfahan. MSF’s charter planes, which were carrying material to build an inflatable 50-bed treatment unit, had already landed in Tehran. In the Americas, cases have steadily increased at about 21 000 new cases per day over the past two days. The USA, which has surpassed any other country in the world, has 164 610 confirmed cases as of today, 40% of which are in New York State. Yesterday, in a statement from New York’ Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Press Office, a new plan was announced to transfer patients between public and private hospitals to balance current demand with local capacity. Africa has confirmed 3486 cases, and has reported about 400 new cases a day. South Africa, which has about 40% of Africa’s cases, has experienced a dramatic reduction in new cases with a weekend average of 70, which is in stark comparison to numbers reported on 27 March, when the country peaked with 243 new cases. However, WHO experts have cautioned that low weekend reporting patterns and limited testing may lead to underestimates of the true case numbers in the continent. According to WHO’s daily situation report, there are 4048 cases in WHO’s Southeast Asia region as of Monday night. By Tuesday night, India, the most populous country in the region, had 1251 confirmed cases with 32 deaths. However, the country has one of the lowest testing rates in the world, at 32 tests per million. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 21-day lockdown, which began last Tuesday, has resulted in a mass exodus of daily wage migrant workers after losing their jobs and the order to return home. At least 22 deaths have been reportedly linked to the mass exodus. In anticipation of an upwards surge in cases, the Ministry of Railways has agreed to modify 20000 coaches into quarantine and isolation wards to supplement the country’s facilities. Total active of COVID-19 as of 7 p.m. CET 31 March. Right column shows confirmed cases. Numbers change rapidly. Gauri Saxena contributed to this story. Image Credits: NIAID, Johns Hopkins CSSE. WHO Nears $675 Million ‘Goal’ For COVID-19 Response – $622 Million Pledged 30/03/2020 Grace Ren & Svĕt Lustig Vijay WHO team of technical experts conclude a COVID-19 support mission to Egypt. The World Health Organization has received more than US $622 million of a US $675 million ask to fund WHO’s first Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan for COVID-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday. “We continue to be encouraged by the signs of global solidarity to confront and overcome this common threat,” said Dr Tedros, speaking at an afternoon press briefing. In a parallel development, Norway is leading an initiative to establish a multi-donor fund for the global COVID-19 response to assist developing countries, coordinating with the United Nations to launch the initiative within the next few days. “A multi-donor fund under UN auspices will provide predictability for our partners and help to make the efforts more effective,” said Minister of Foreign Affairs Ine Eriksen Søreide in a press release. ‘Experience from other crises shows that the earlier you start long-term response planning, the more precise and successful the effort becomes.” Unlike the UN Solidarity Fund, which is soliciting donations from individuals and private donors for the response, this fund will collate resources from major bilateral donors and international agencies, similar to the UN Ebola Response Fund set up in 2014 to address the emergency in West Africa. The fund will provide both immediate emergency aid to developing countries, and aid for longer term development initiatives to prop up weak health systems to prepare for future pandemics. In another meeting Monday with Ministers of Trade from the Group of 20 (G20) richest countries in the world, Dr Tedros also called on G20 countries to significantly their increase production of personal protective equipment (PPE), and ensure its equitable distribution of equipment around the world. “Specific attention should be given to low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America,” said Dr Tedros in a statement. “We call on countries to work with companies to increase production; to ensure the free movement of essential health products; and to ensure equitable distribution of those products, based on need.” However, hoarding and misappropriation of donated PPE equipment also may loom as a thorny problems that donors need to resolve. At the China-Uganda Friendship Referral Hospital near Kampala, one of three Ugandan reference hospitals for COVID-19 cases, health workers taking throat swabs from suspected COVID-19 patients and managing an isolation ward, lack basic protective gear except gloves, Health Policy Watch learned. N-95 masks must be purchased by the doctors and nurses out of pocket, and protective gowns and face shields are unavavilable. Gloves were provided by the hospital after workers threatened to strike, but when supplies run low, patients have to pay for those themselves before they are examined. WHO did not comment on the report. 154 NGOs Submit Open Letter Calling For Gilead To Retract Remdesivir Patent Applications Some 154 NGOs released an open letter Monday calling for Gilead Sciences to rescind its patent applications for remdesivir in 70 countries that could grant the company market exclusivity until 2031 on the experiemental drug, a promising potential COVID-19 treatment. The campaign, coordinated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), aligns closely with a growing movement within the medicines access community to push for mandatory “pooled” rights for COVID-19 technologies. In an unusual move, Gilead already asked the US FDA to rescind special “orphan drug” status for remdesivir last week after facing an intense public backlash, just days after recieving the designation. Orphan drug status would have granted Gilead an addition 7 years of market exclusivity. However, according to the MSF statement, the company still has pending patent applications for remdesivir in at least 70 other countries. “It is unacceptable for Gilead’s remdesivir to be put under the company’s exclusive control, taking into account that the drug was developed with considerable public funding for both early-stage research and clinical trials; the extraordinary efforts and personal risks that both healthcare workers and patients have faced in using the medicine in clinical trial settings; and the unprecedented disaster all countries are facing for their people, their healthcare systems, and their economies” said Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in a statement today. In the open letter, Gilead was urged to take immediate action in the public interest by declaring that it will drop all exclusive rights on patents, regulatory and trial data, as well as making all data required for development of generic drug versions publically available to enable their production and supply. Finally, Gilead was requested to improve its transparency by disclosing its existing supply and manufacturing capacity. “There is a further step to take, as a voluntary pool may not be sufficient, especially when the crisis intensity cools and public approbation for actions like Gilead’s Orphan designation abates,” said Paul Fehlner, President & CEO of reVision Therapeutics, in an interview with Health Policy Watch. “An entity dedicated to the public interest could obtain consequential legal exclusivities (Orphan drug designation, data and market exclusivity) and prevent opportunistic third parties from getting them”. According to Fehlner, creating a “pool” of rights would take minimum efforts, only requiring a willing coordinator to “aggregate data from ongoing trials worldwide and submit formal applications to health authorities.” “This crisis presents an immediate and urgent opportunity to wield the tools of exclusivity to promote access to medical products that may combat COVID-19,” said Fehlner. COVID-19 Trends As the United States now leads the world in coronavirus cases with 143,055 confirmed cases and 2,513 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins tracking database, President Trump extended the U.S. social distancing guidelines until the end of April, rescinding his earlier predictions that the lockdown would end by mid-April’s Easter holiday. Meanwhile, the UN donated 250,000 protective face masks to the USA from its New York headquarters to help combat the outbreak’s epicenter in New York. As the US is faced with rapidly increasing cases, inefficiencies from failed coronavirus tests, and shortage of ventilators, STATNews reports that the Genomics Institute led by Jennifer Doudna, the pioneer of CRISPR gene editing technology, will start running coronavirus tests in order to increase the turnaround time of testings in the San Francisco Bay Area. Over the weekend, Italy and Spain bolster efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus and flatten the curve. Italy, numbers 97,689 cases and 10,779 deaths, and Spain, numbers 85,195 cases and 7,340 deaths, have overtaken China’s 82,198 cases and 3,308 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins coronavirus tracking database. As infection increases, Italy has decided to extend its national lockdown beyond the April 3rd date while Spain tightens the national lockdown for all citizens, except for the workers in the essential sectors until April 9th. As the rate of infection within countries intensified, European countries began to depart from longstanding WHO guidance against the wearing of masks by the general public. Notably, Austria made masks obligatory for clients in supermarkets mandatory to curb airborne spread of the coronavirus amongst customers. Crowded supermarkets have been identified in a number of countries as nexus points for virus spread. However, until now, universal masking has only been practiced in Asia, while WHO repeatedly said the measure was unecessary elsewhere. The Hungarian Parliament, meanwhile, awarded wide-ranging powers to Prime Minister Viktor Orban for an indefinite period, to fight the pandemic, including curtailing free speech and other democratic rights. South-East and Western Asia In South-East Asia, the coronavirus was increasingly disrupting the lives of those living on the socioeconomic margins. After Prime Minister Modi’s surprise lockdown announcement, India’s daily wage earners struggle under the nationwide lockdown as many are stranded in cities without food, housing, and means of getting back home, particularly vulnerable are the Muslim minority who have been victims of recent riots over amendments to the naional citizenship bill. The challenges faced by the rural Indian migrants in the megacities post-lockdown has initiated one of the largest exodus of people back into the rural areas. Meanwhile, in the Western Pacific Region, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) postpones the Tokyo Summer Olympics to July 23rd, 2021 to August 8th, 2021. Online debates also continued to swirl around the degree of China’s influence on the WHO. On Sunday, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu tweeted a complaint referring a senior WHO official’s response to a question from a Hong Kong journalist, about whether WHO would reconsider Taiwan application for member state status. “Wow, can’t even utter ‘Taiwan’ in the WHO? You should set politics aside in dealing with a pandemic,” Wu wrote. Taiwan has accused WHO of ignoring its early warnings about the appearance of a novel coronavirus in mainland China, as well as brushing aside subsequent criticism that China repressed early news about the virus spread, which delayed a more systematic public health response. Overall, Europe continued to lead with half or more of the now active COVID-19 cases worldwide, followed by the United States. There were some 30,000 active cases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, including heavily hit Iran. South-East Asia was reporting nearly 3,600 active cases, and in WHO’s Africa region, there were more than 3,300 infections reported. In the Western Pacific Region, there were some 18,095 active cases, but only about 3,000 of those were in mainland China. Total cases of COVID-19 as of 8 p.m CET, with active case distribution globally. Numbers change rapidly. -Tsering Lhamo contributed to this report. Image Credits: WHO EMRO. ‘Anticipatory Anxiety’: Africa on Cusp of The COVID-19 Pandemic 30/03/2020 Kerry Cullinan Health workers in full protective gear do a COVID-19 throat swab in a Addis Ababa isolation centre. But in Kampala, Uganda, doctors have no suits and they must to purchae their own masks. CAPETOWN, South Africa – As many African countries opt for lockdowns to combat COVID-19, there is uncertainty over whether this will be enough to prevent the pandemic’s spread, or whether authorities will be able to implement this in overcrowded urban areas – as well as fears for patients with HIV, TB and other conditions that require monthly medication. There is a sense that Africans are on the shore watching the sea drawing back before the tsunami of infections hit, overwhelming the continent’s health facilities and killing thousands of people. In late February, just a handful of African countries had recorded a few COVID-19 cases. Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, with a high volume of air traffic from other affected regions of the world, were hit first. By yesterday (29 March), 4,282 cases of the virus had been recorded in 46 of the 54 African countries, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). WHO’s Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus recently warned the continent to “prepare for the worst”. African countries have been struggling to reconcile measures to arrest the virus, such as travel bans, social distancing and restricting public gatherings, with the need to protect their weak economies. More African Countries Using Lockdown Measures Amid the growing consensus that China’s reversal of its pandemic started from a lockdown, and this is the most effective way to reverse the pandemic, key African countries have opted for drastic measures to contain the virus in the past few days. Rwandans are in a 14-day lockdown which started on 22 March. Kenya has a night-time curfew and restrictions on gatherings. South Africa went into a 21-day total lockdown on Friday. Soweto, South Africa. Poverty and crowded conditions make lockdowns doubly difficult. “Those countries that have acted swiftly and dramatically have been far more effective in controlling the spread of the disease,” said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. “While this measure will have a considerable impact on people’s livelihoods, on the life of our society and on our economy, the human cost of delaying this action would be far, far greater.” The Democratic Republic of Congo implemented a four-day lockdown on Saturday, after the move had been delayed for a few days when the prices of essential goods spiked. Yesterday, Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari announced a 14-day lockdown for Lagos and Ogun state which comes into effect at 11pm Monday, 30 March. Ghanians living in Accra and Kumasi face a two-week lockdown from today. Zimbabweans also face a 21-day lockdown from today, and Lesotho citizens face a 25-day lockdown. Congo-Brazzaville goes into lockdown from tomorrow (Tuesday) and eight towns in Burkina Faso will be shut down from Friday for 14 days. However, implementing the lockdowns has proven challenging. South Africans may only leave their homes to buy basic groceries or medical supplies and there is a ban on the sale of alcohol. The South African National Defence Force has been brought in to support the police. Already, police used rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse shoppers in Johannesburg who were refusing to stand an arm’s length apart. Two Rwandans were reported to have been shot dead over the weekend, although that government subsequently denied that the shootings were related to the lockdown. Observers also fear that the heavy-handed application of lockdown measures, in the African context, will deprive people of access to food and essential services, including essential medical care. One worried Ugandan doctor who contacted Health Policy Watch related the story of an expectant mother living in a village some distance from Kampala, who had called him shortly after the country’s lockdown was announced on Monday, fearing that she was going into labour. “She has poor obstetric history,” he said. “A few days ago, she did an ultrasound scan that revealed a breech presentation. Her expected date of delivery is 3 April. She cannot access medical services since she is in the village, in a distance not walkable to the nearest facility where she can have ceaserian section done (if necessary). “‘I can not afford an ambulance because drivers often need fuel facilitation,’ she lamented. I was left speechless… She is opting to walk to the nearest traditional birth attendant for some magic. I felt this is worth sharing.” COVID-19 simulation exercise at the Kinshasa International Airport, Democratic Republic of Congo. Some Front-Line Health Workers Aren’t Getting PPE Supplies – Despite Massive WHO Shipments Meanwhile, epidemics experts are urging African governments to do whatever they can to protect the continent’s thin line of health workers. They urgently need personal protective equipment (PPE) such as masks, gloves and hand sanitiser. “But other measures are very important such as ventilation, spacing, early triage and separation of potential cases and increased access to water and supplies,” said Amanda McClelland, senior vice-president of PreventEpidemics, part of Vital Strategies’ Resolve to Save Lives programme. Dr Gilles van Cutsem, an infectious disease doctor and epidemiologist with Médicins sans Frontières (MSF), stressed that “there needs to be planning and preparation for screening and triage at health facilities to avoid overcrowding and saturation of hospitals, and ensure that hospitals do not become foci of transmission”. “In Italy and China triage tents were set up outside hospitals to receive and separate patients,” added van Cutsem. Meanwhile, HIV clinician Dr Francois Venter, deputy director of Reproductive Health and HIV Institute Johannesburg, urged those who are “mildly symptomatic” to stay away from health facilities to make sure that there is space for the very sick. Speaking after 14 days in quarantine, Venter said he had “anticipatory anxiety” as he waited for the deluge of patients. “I was almost disappointed that my [COVID-19] test was negative. For the first time in my life, I understand emotionally the relief that some of my gay clients expressed when they finally tested positive for HIV,” said Venter. While the WHO has reportedly sent large consignments of PPE to various African countries, shortages are still being reported all over the continent. There were only 60 N95masks distributed to some 280 health workers at China-Uganda Friendship Hospital near Kampala, a designated treatment facility for Covid-19 patients. Doctors and nurses performing COVID-19 tests have to purchase their own masks, according to one staff member, assigned to the COVID-19 isolation unit. That, despite the fact a WHO African “Readiness” Checklist showed Uganda to be equipped with masks and gloves. WHO Readiness Checklist shows Uganda equipped with PPE. Frontline health workers in Kampala isolation unit say they must buy their own masks. The hospital staff only received gloves after threatening to go on strike – although when gloves run short, patients are also asked to purchase them in order to be examined. When asked by Health Policy Watch about the reports of PPE shortages in Uganda’s COVID-19 units, WHO did not comment. Nor did it provide aggregate totals of PPE supplies that have been shipped to Africa until now. However, in a press briefing Monday, WHO Emergencies Head Mike Ryan said, “”We have already sent large numbers of PPE and diagnostics to the countries. It’s not enough. We are working with World Food Programme, Jack Ma Foundation, and Africa CDC to bring in PPE.” Jack Ma, founder of the Alibaba Group, is making a series of massive donations to regions across the world, including 1.1 million test kits, 6 million masks and 60,000 protective suits for Africa, which were due to begin distribution last week, according to Ethiopia’s Prime Minsiter, Abiy Ahmed Ali. Donations of PPE from by the Jack Ma Foundation land in Addis Ababa last week. McClelland recently returned from Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous African country, and has few illusions about the massive tasks that lie ahead: “There is still much more to do in Ethiopia to test and detect cases. The extent of transmission in this country with 105 million people is not really known.” There are two major challenges: preparing and training health workers – Ethiopia only has 19,000 – and engaging communities to change their personal behaviour to limit the spread. Sobering new data from Imperial College predicts that 250 critical care beds will be needed per 100, 000 people if the non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and restricting gatherings, are not successful in stemming the tide of infections. A recent report from Nigeria estimates that the country may only have around 500 ventilators for a population of over 200-million. Said Ryan, “The issue of ventilators is very important – but from the perspective of supporting patients, oxygen is also something we need to discuss.“Before ventilator support, what truly is lifesaving is the ability to give patients supplemental oxygen. When someone has COVID19 your lungs struggle to put oxygen in your blood. Every country in Africa has oxygen. We need to focus on getting better distribution of lifesaving oxygen. We are working to scale up the distribution of supplies and coordinate in a way that countries can expect a smooth service.” “Micro-Isolation” Tactics Used For Ebola May Help Contain COVID-19 While COVID-19 is a different kind of infection, with effects likely to eclipse the more deadly but less contagious diseases such as Ebola, the continent has learnt important lessons about epidemics from its experiences battling such viruses steadily, including during the 2014-2016 health emergency in West Africa, as well as the more 2018-2020 Ebola epidemic in DRC, now finally on the wane. While trying to contain Ebola, Guinea introduced a form of community quarantine called “micro-cerclage” (micro-encirclement) to limit the movement of people in Ebola-affected areas. Those showing symptoms of Ebola were placed in isolation while those close to them were asked to limit their movements. Limited essential movement – such as attending to crops – was allowed and was often monitored by people’s mobile phones. Amanda McCelelland, Prevent Epidemics Community leaders’ support for the policy was key, as were local response teams who enforced the monitoring. Affected households were also provided with food and basic toiletries. “Microcerclage is one approach that will potentially add real value to addressing COVID-19 but this will depend on the scale of community transmission,” says McClelland, who came face-to-face with Ebola while working in the Emergency Health Unit of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “If clusters can be detected early and isolated then this approach could help communities to not be negatively impacted and to continue to have access to key services and resources including food and water.” But a huge challenge is how to quarantine city dwellers. Over 20 million people live in crowded conditions in Lagos, five million live in Johannesburg and three million in Addis Ababa. “Self-isolation and restriction of population movement on a much larger scale in some cities would stretch the resources to be able to provide food, water and services on a citywide scale,” warned McClelland. Community Engagement Also Key Ebola also has negative lessons. “Without community engagement and trust, the outcomes can be devastating,” warned McClelland. “In the Ebola response, this tragically included violence against first responders. We must do everything we can to avoid this in the response to COVID-19.” In 2019 in the DRC alone, MSF recorded more than 300 attacks on Ebola health workers, during which six people were killed and 70 wounded. Stigmatising foreigners assumed to be infected with COVID-19 is already happening. On 18 March, the US embassy in Ethiopia issued a security alert warning of “a rise in anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19”. “Incidents of harassment and assault directly related to COVID-19 have been reported by other foreigners living within Addis Ababa and other cities throughout the country. Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones, denied transportation services, being spat on, chased on foot, and been accused of being infected with COVID-19,” according to the Embassy. Laboratory capacity has also been improved in many Ebola-affected countries, and Nigeria in particular has made substantial improvements in combating epidemics in the last few years. But Van Cutsem warned that the laboratory capacity of most African countries, aside from South Africa is “extremely poor”. “Countries have to find ways to improve the capacity of their laboratories to process tests, and we need the introduction of rapid tests,” said Van Cutsem. While some African leaders have speculated that the virus may not survive in high temperatures, McClelland simply says: “The short answer is we do not know yet. The science is still not clear. There is some evidence that, in a laboratory , the virus may be affected by warmer temperatures. But we also have transmission occurring in warm climates like Australia, the Middle East and South East Asia. Influenza transmits all year round in much of Africa and can actually be worse in dusty conditions. It is too early to assume Africa is protected due to heat and they must prepare with the same sense of urgency as other countries.” Hopes that the pandemic may be short-lived are not shared by experts who quietly talk about the current conditions continuing for many more months. “Settle down to this. Social isolation might be the new normal for the rest of the year. Look after your mental health, check in with people and be kind,” advises Venter. At the same time, in Africa, where large proportions of the population live below or on the verge of poverty, ensuring people’s basic needs during the COVID-19 emergency, will still remain the most fundamental priority, said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in a brieing Monday. “Some countries have strong social welfare systems, some countries don’t. I’m from Africa as you know, and I know some people have to work every single day to win their daily bread. And governments have to take this into account. If we are closing and limiting movement, what will happen to people who have to work on a daily basis? We don’t mean the effect as an average of GDP loss or general effect on the economy; we have to see what it means to an individual on the street.” – Kerry Cullinan is the health editor for openDemocracy 50.50, and based in South Africa. -Updated 31 March, 2020 Image Credits: Matt-80, © WHO/Otto B., © WHO/Kabambi E., Twitter: @AbiyAhmedAli , Vital Strategies , Courtesy of Kerry Cullinan. COVID-19 Testing Trends – Globally & Regionally 30/03/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 (HPW/Svet Lustig): How countries rank in COVID-19 tests/per million population. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Testing: the crux of effective outbreak responses Testing is an essential component of effective outbreak responses. Without widespread testing, we cannot know whether a disease is spreading nor take measures to appropriately respond to it. “All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded, they should know where the cases are, and that is how they can take decisions,” said Dr Tedros, WHO Director General. Health Policy Watch is tracking testing trends in countries around the world, based on data from FIND’s COVID-19 tracker. We display diagnostic capacity using two measures – cumulative testing by countries and trends showing change We have displayed the data using two measures: cumulative number of tests per million population, for all countries administering tests as of 28 March, and trends in selected countries over the past week. From the cumulative data, we can see how some countries, including Iceland, Bahrain, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland, far outpace other nations in terms of their rate of testing, per million people. We also see how many low and middle income countries across Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia still lack any significant test capacity, even while cases are rising. Importantly, we present testing data per million people to account for large population differences between countries. From the trends data, we can also see how countries such as Australia, Switzerland and the United States, have very rapidly ramped up testing over just the past week, while others, such as France and Great Britain, lag further behind. Testing Trends In Europe Within the past week, European countries such as Switzerland and the Czech Republic have doubled and tripled their testing capacity, respectively. Switzerland, which has one of the highest per-capita rates of infection in the world, has now administered 12,639 tests per million people. Countries like France and the UK, however, have not reported any changes in testing over the past week, with only 1,548 and 1,779 tests per million , respectively, despite increasingly high infection rates. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected countries of WHO’s European Region. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Americas Regions – High Income Australia has sharply increased its testing, with 8,134 tests per million on 28 March, double that of a week ago. While the USA has almost quadrupled its testing capacity in one week, it still has only administered a total of 2,032 tests per million, lagging behind many high-income regions. Trends covered are in selected high income countries of the region. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Western Pacific (WPRO), Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) and Americas (AMRO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. African, South-East Asian and Americas Regions – Low & Middle Income Trends here are for selected low- and middle-income coutnries that are testing significantly. In the African continent, South Africa leads with 539 tests per million. While South Africa’s testing capacity is still low in comparison to the rest of the world, this is still approximately double compared to last week. In Latin America, Chile has increased its testing five-fold for a cumulative total of 1209 tests per million; followed by Costa Rica, which has doubled its testing capacity to 600 tests per million. While testing capacity has almost doubled in India, as well, the country so far carried out only 20 tests per million people. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Americas (AMRO), African AMRO) and South East Asia (SEARO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. European Parliament Members Urge Open Licensing For COVID-19 Products Financed Through EU Grants 27/03/2020 Grace Ren Transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 (red), the virus that causes COVID-19 Some 33 Members of the European Parliament released an open letter Friday urging top leadership in the European Commission (EC) to prohibit exclusive licensing for COVID-19 products developed with European Union (EU) grants, and demanding transparency in the research and development pipeline to ensure affordability commitments are met. In a separate letter signed by 37 NGOs and over 50 experts in health and patent law, public health and medicine, called on the World Health Organization and all Member States to get behind Costa Rica’s initiative to “pool” COVID-19 patent rights for essential drugs, vaccines, and technologies. The letter was posted by Knowledge Ecology International, a global patent watchdog group. Those campaigns come right in the wake of the World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ Twitter endorsement of Costa Rica’s call to create the “pooled rights” initiative. “We cannot allow patients to be refused care because of financial constraints or shortages resulting from manufacturing or supply constraints,” said the Members of the European Parliament in the letter addressed to EC President Ursula Von Der Leyen; EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, and Youth, Mariya Gabriel; and EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner, Stella Kyriakides. Although the European Commission invests more than double of any private sector partner in EU-funded COVID-19 research, most of the calls for proposals so far do not seem to require companies or organizations to commit to affordability and access clauses, the MPs stated in their letter. Thus, it is even more important to enforce public oversight on the R&D process and bar exclusive licensing, they noted. For new products, companies should be required to commit to non-exclusive licensing on any developed health technology as a precondition for receiving EU funding, said the MPs. Granting exclusive licenses on new products could result in subsequent shortages, as only “one or very few companies” would be “allowed to produce an extremely timely medicine that is required in huge quantities worldwide,” the MPs stated. “From this moment forward, we require new medical tools to be immediately available once authorised for use, at an affordable price and in high enough quantities to meet global demand.” Responding to the calls, Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations warned that pooling patent rights would not likely enhance the global battle against the virus. “While voluntary pooling of intellectual property and other assets can be a tool to stimulate R&D and facilitate access under certain conditions, its effects to address the current pandemic will likely be very limited,” warned Cueni in a statement. “Tools already exist for governments to access the medicines they need, and they are already being used in a number of cases. “In addition, there are established organizations in place – such as the Medicines Patent Pool, a UN-backed initiative that uses a voluntary licensing and ‘pooled’ patent model to grant licenses to generics manufacturers – who have the expertise in licensing and managing an established pool of intellectual property assets,” Cueni added. As one such example, AbbVie Pharmaceuticals recently announced that it would offer through the Medicines Patent Pool licenses for its lopinavir/ritonavir drug combination without patent restrictions, after the HIV treatment was identified by the World Health Organization as one of the drug combinations to be tested in a multi-country trial against COVID-19. “Given the gravity and urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biopharmaceutical industry has not wasted any time or spared any effort in using its skills, technology and resources to bring safe and effective treatments, vaccines and diagnostic to patients around the world as a matter of utmost urgency,” added Cueni, pointing to a list of IFPMA commitments on the emergency. Civil Society Advocates Propose “Phased” Development of COVID-19 Patent Pool However, the proposed pool of patent rights for COVID-19 technologies would, in fact, build on the successes of the Medicines Patent Pool in expanding affordable access to medicines for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and hepatitis C, said Brook Baker, senior policy analyst at the Global Access Project, and a signatory on the KEI letter. “Simply put, no exclusive rights should stand in the way of governments’ and the global community’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Baker wrote in an opinion to Health Policy Watch on Costa Rica’s call to pool rights to drug development. To build agreement around the roll-out of a COVID-19 patent pool, the KEI letter also proposes a phased approach. An initial “phase-one” agreement would establish the minimum legal basis to permit such licensing in the future, and create a process for working out the details. Hammering out which technologies to share, the terms of authorization, and possible remuneration for the pooled licenses could be done at a later date, the KEI signatories suggest. However, the pool for COVID-19 products should go beyond medicines patents, per se, to address regulatory test data, research data, cell lines, basic science innovations, and other intellectual property, the signatories, including some 37 NGOs and 50 experts. Inputs to such a pool could come from governments that fund research and development or buy innovative products, as well as from universities, research institutes, charities, private companies and individuals who control rights, the letter suggests. In parallel moves, two other large NGOs, Médecins Sans Frontières and the Treatment Action Group released separate public statements Friday calling for national governments to prepare to override patent protections as well as to take other measures, such as enacting price controls, to ensure availability of COVID-19 medicines, vaccines, and other medical tools. TAG threw its weight behind the MSF call, earlier in the week, for a US $5 price tag on a rapid COVID-19 test that can be used on the GeneXpert TB platform, which has thousands of diagnostics instruments in Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia. “We know too well from our work around the world what it means to not be able to treat people in our care because a needed drug is just too expensive or simply not available,” said Dr Márcio da Fonseca, Infectious Disease Advisor at MSF’s Access Campaign in the statement. South Africa, one of the first middle-income countries to embrace the Cepheid COVID-19 test, announced that it will begin using the new GeneXpert COVID-19 tests to leverage the large network of over 180 machines in the country to ramp up rapid testing, as total confirmed cases in the country crossed the 1000 cases threshold. The first test cartridges will be available for use in April. Ad for generic lopinavir/ritonavir HIV drug combination, originally marketed as Kaletra by AbbVie, which relinquished its patent rights to the COVID-19 campaign First Patient in WHO’s COVID-19 SOLIDARITY Trial Enrolled in Norway At the University of Oslo Hospital in Norway, the first patient was enrolled Friday in WHO’s massive multi-country SOLIDARITY trial to collect data on potential COVID-19 treatments. This followed on an announcement by Prime Minister Erna Solberg of a 2.2 billion NOK (US$ 211) additional investment into the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) COVID-19 vaccine development efforts. That was in addition to a 1.6 billion NOK (US$ 153.6 million) investment in the Oslo-based CEPI vaccine efforts. “We are in a global quest for knowledge unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Noweigian Minister of Health Bent Høie in a press briefing. “We can save lives, protect healthcare professionals and all others from getting the disease.” The Norwegian SOLIDARITY trial patient will be the first to take part in this WHO-organized global effort to test four potential COVID-19 treatments under a simplified protocol, so that even low-resourced healthcare facilities could participate. The drugs to be tested include Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir; the lopinavir/ritonavir originally developed by AbbVie Inc. for HIV/AIDs along with beta interferon; as well as the anti-malarials chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. Another arm of the trial is also starting on Friday in Spain. The SOLIDARITY Trial began as global case counts surpassed half a million, and total deaths surged over 26,000. “These are tragic numbers,” said Dr Tedros. Some countries are already administering the medications ad-hoc on a compassionate use basis, as well as stockpiling for future mass use. But WHO’s Dr Tedros has cautioned against widespread use of such treatments without strong evidence – following media reports of people self-medicating with the substances or ones similarly named. One man in the United States, for instance, died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used in aquarium cleaning, following US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, according to the Associated Press. “We call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19,” said Dr Tedros. “The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn’t work in humans or were actually harmful.” In one example, he said that “during the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial. “We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.” Contrary to WHO’s cautious approach, a prominent bioethicist suggested a radical approach to fast-tracking vaccine development – purposefully infecting young healthy volunteers with the virus and seeing whether the vaccine protects against infection. In a preprint paper, Director of the Center for Population–Level Bioethics (CPLB) at Rutgers University Nir Eyal suggested that despite placing participants at risk of “severe disease and death”, such a ‘human challenge’ study design could “subtract many months” from the vaccine licensure process, reducing the global burden of coronavirus morbidity and mortality. COVID-19 cases worldwide as of Friday evening. Numbers change rapidly. Image Credits: NIAID. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts This site uses cookies to help give you the best experience on our website. Cookies enable us to collect information that helps us personalise your experience and improve the functionality and performance of our site. 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EMA Releases Guidelines For Compassionate Use of Remdesivir for COVID-19 03/04/2020 Grace Ren The European Medicines Agency on Friday issued new guidance supporting the use of Gilead Sciences’ antiviral remdesivir as a COVID-19 treatment under compassionate use programmes. The new EMA guidelines on remdesivir recommend its compassionate use in adult COVID-19 patients experiencing severe disease requiring invasive mechanical ventilation. Such compassionate use programmes are set up by individual country governments to allow patients suffering from life-threatening diseases access to experimental treatments that have not yet received full marketing approval. However, the EMA issued specific guidance for remdesivir after Estonia, Greece, the Netherlands, and Romania requested an opinion from the agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) on compassionate use protocols. While large, randomized clinical trials remain the “gold standard” for assessing the safety and efficacy of investigational treatments, the EMA acknowledged the need for a ” harmonised approach to compassionate use in the EU to allow access to remdesivir for patients who are not eligible for inclusion in clinical trials,” said Harald Enzmann, chair of the CHMP in a press release. The CHMP further encouraged Gilead to make remdesivir available in a “fair and transparent” way to all EMA Member States that wished to take part in clinical trials or use the drug under compassionate use. The EMA move came as controversy continued to swirl around Gilead’s rights to remdesivir in light of growing demand for the investigational treatment. Medicines access advocates have argued that exclusive patent rights on COVID-19 technologies could result in shortages of essential new treatments or vaccines in an accelerating global crisis. The company just opened an “expanded access” program after temporarily suspending its own “compassionate use” program due to an overwhelming flood of requests from COVID-19 patients unable to enroll in clinical trials. Under the expanded access program, hospitals and physicians can apply for emergency use of remdesivir for multiple severely ill patients at the same time. Gilead’s own “compassionate use” program will continue, but enroll only pregnant women and children, Gilead CEO Daniel O’Day wrote in a statement. Medicines Patent Pool Expands Mandate to Support Establishment Of IP “Pool” for COVID-19 Technologies Meanwhile, the respected Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) threw its support behind a global initiative to create a World Health Organization-led “pool” of intellectual property rights for COVID-19 technologies, saying that it could help facilitate efforts to make key COVID-19 technologies more widely available to countries as they come to market. The UN-backed Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) works as an intermediary between pharma companies and global health agencies such as WHO and UNAIDS, to increase access to treatments for HIV/AIDs, hepatitis C, and tuberculosis. MPP negotiates with patent holders for voluntarily licenses of their products to MPP, which then “pools” the intellectual property rights so that generic manufacturers can enter the market. While primarily focused on medicines access, the MPP Governance Board temporarily expanded its mandate on Friday to include all potential COVID-19 health technologies, which could potentially include diagnostics and vaccines. With support from Unitaid, MPP’s founding organization, this allows the organisation to contribute IP and licensing expertise on any relevant COVID-19 products to the World Health Organization. Unitaid’s Board issued an open letter last week supporting Costa’s Rica’s call for the WHO to create a pool of patents for COVID-19 related technologies. “In these difficult times, the MPP Board recognises the important role that MPP can play to increase access to life-saving products for those who need them most. And importantly, with time of the essence, to ensure that we make use of the expertise and mechanisms that already exist,” said Marie-Paule Kieny, chair of the MPP Board, in a press release. “The Medicines Patent Pool, set up and funded by Unitaid a decade ago, has a proven track record and is immediately available to the WHO to begin this urgent work,” said Marisol Touraine, chair of the Unitaid Executive Board, reiterating Unitaid’s support for a global “pool” of intellectual property rights. The organisation aims to follow the lead of WHO, which is currently exploring with other stakeholders the implications of a global “pool” of intellectual property rights, a spokesperson for MPP told Health Policy Watch. 140 Organizations, Researchers, & Educators Call On WIPO To Ensure Intellectual Property Frameworks Support COVID-19 Response In a parallel move, some 140 organizations, researchers, educators, and students called on the World Intellectual Property Organization to provide clear guidance to governments on using intellectual property laws to support the COVID-19 response. “The COVID-19 pandemic has shone a bright light on how important intellectual property limitations and exceptions can be to development and human flourishing,” the organizations stated in an open letter to WIPO Director General Francis Gurry. For example, data sharing has facilitated cross-border collaboration on COVID-19 research. Schools, universities, libraries, museums, and other research institutions are transferring materials online in the wake of widespread closures. However, remote access to such materials is only available where copyright laws permit. WIPO, as the leading agency on global intellectual property, should step in and issue guidance to governments in response to any thorny “intellectual property issues that the coronavirus is raising,” the organizations say. The letter suggests WHO take four steps: Encourage WIPO member states to take advantage of intellectual property flexibilities to increase access to protected works for online learning and research; Request right holders to remove licensing restrictions that inhibit remote learning, research, and access to culture to both help address the global pandemic and minimise disruption caused by it; Support the call by Costa Rica for the World Health Organization to pool intellectual property rights for all COVID-19 related technologies and promote use of the Medicines Patent Pool; Support countries’ rights to enact and use exceptions to trade secret and IP rights to facilitate access to data and technologies needed to increase equitable access to COVID-19 technologies. Image Credits: Medicines Patent Pool. COVID-19 Infections Hit One Million Mark; Countries Must Protect Health & Livelihoods During COVID-19 Pandemic Say WHO and IMF 02/04/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay As the global count of COVID-19 cases hit the sobering 1 million mark Thursday midnight, countries should not have to face the choice of protecting lives or protecting livelihoods, World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a Friday press briefing. More than half of the new cases reported worldwide were still in WHO’s Europe Region, but an explosion of cases in low- and middle-income countries points to a looming health and economic crises in some of the world’s weakest health systems. “We know that this is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic,” said Dr Tedros. “The restrictions many countries have put in place to protect health are taking a heavy toll on the income of individuals and families, the economies of communities and nations”. Countries around the globe have enacted widespread lockdowns in an effort to slow the spread of the virus, forcing businesses and employers to close or scale back operations. Millions of workers, particularly day wage workers, have lost their jobs overnight. “This is a crisis like no other, never in the history of the IMF we have witnessed the world economy coming to a standstill,” said Georgieva. “We are now in recession, it is way worse than the global financial crisis.” Of particular concern are “emerging markets” in developing countries, said IMF’s Georgieva, which are hardest hit and have less resources to protect themselves from both the virus and the global recession. Since the beginning of the pandemic, nearly US $90 billion in capital has left such emerging economies. “Many countries are facing this dilemma of do they provide support to people to survive, or fight the virus,” said Georgieva. “We want to fight this false dilemma.” “The issue of debt in developing countries must be addressed urgently,” she added. The IMF is providing debt relief for its poorest countries through a catastrophic containment relief trust support. Along with the World Bank, the IMF is also calling on bilateral creditors to place a moratorium on official debt payments to provide space for countries to address immediate priorities. Georgieva’s message on debt echoed the moratorium on debt for developing countries put forward by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTD) in Monday’s $2.5 trillion coronavirus crisis package for developing countries. So far, more than 90 countries have applied for emergency financing from the IMF. Rwanda’s request was granted today – and two other African countries requests will likely be approved today, said Georgieva. The IMF aims to double the normal amount of emergency financing offered to countries. On where the funds should be directed in the short term response, Dr Tedros said that governments should be strengthening the foundations of the health system, paying their healthcare workers and removing financial barriers to care, and setting up social welfare support for the most vulnerable. The WHO also voiced their concern today about lifting restrictions too quickly, and the importance of developing effective transition strategies as outbreaks in countries begin to dampen. “If countries rush to lift restrictions quickly, the coronavirus could resurge, and the economic impact could be more severe and prolonged”, said Dr. Tedros. “We don’t want to have cycles of lockdown and release. This is not what anybody needs right now. The way to avoid that is a transition strategy to get ahead of the virus . Like this, we can protect our economies”, said Mike Ryan, Executive Director of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme. COVID-19 Surge Past 1,000,000 Cases Worldwide COVID-19 infections hit the one million mark on Thursday evening, according to latest reports by Worldometer, an independent digital team tracking case counts by official national and global sources. COVID-19 hits the one million mark today. More than half of the new cases worldwide over the past 24 hours were still being recorded in WHO’s European region. New cases in Europe totaled 38 809, with Spain, Germany, France, Italy and the UK accounting for almost three quarters of new cases. As France approached the tipping point in demand for intensive care units, a National Ethics Consultation Committee had established “ethical support units” to “help doctors make difficult choices about which patients with “COVID-19 to treat in intensive care”. A summary of the new guidance was also published in English by the British Medical Journal. In the Americas, meanwhile, there were 28 161 new cases over the 24-hour period between 1 April -2 April, largely in the United States. As the USA’s numbers continue to increase to almost 245,573 confirmed cases, the Governor of Florida finally bent to national directives and issued stay-at-home orders for state residents yesterday. Overall, almost 90% (290 million people) of the USA’s population scattered across 37 states have received orders to remain at home. Indian Authorities Call For Provision of Food, Medical Facilities & Clean Drinking Water to Internal Migrants Trends in India as of 13:04 CET. Confirmed cases increase exponentially. Logarithmic curve shown. As India witnessed a massive internal migration of laborers from cities to their rural homes in response to a nation-wide lockdown, India’s Chief Secretary of State, Preeti Sudan, issued an order on behalf of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, calling on State Governments to provide adequate medical facilities, food, clean drinking water and sanitation for people on the move. The “anxiety and fear of the migrants should be understood by the police and other authorities and they should deal with the migrants in a humane manner,” stated the order, based on directives issued by India’s Supreme Court. She called on “all concerned to appreciate the trepidation of the poor men, women and children and treat them with kindness.” The migration was occurring as South East Asia experienced a 7-fold increase in new cases in just 24 hours (31 March–1 April). Just three of South-East Asia’s 11 countries, including India (2640), Indonesia (1986) and Thailand (1978) account for about 96% of the cases reported in the region so far. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier announced $US 24 billion package to support India’s vulnerable populations during the COVID-19 crisis; the PM-CARES Fund is supposed to include free food rations for 800 million disadvantaged people, cash transfers for 204 million poor women, and free cooking gas for 80 million households. The fund is being financed by various contributions from other government branches, such as the military and the railways authority, as well as by contributions from government employees and celebrities. Africa’s cases have also increased exponentially in the past week, according to a weekly bulletin the WHO African Regional Office. In comparison to two weeks ago, new cases have almost doubled in the past week (185%), with three more countries reporting COVID-19 (Botswana, Burundi, and Sierra Leone). Currently, most member states in the WHO Africa region (42/45) have confirmed cases of COVID-19. The African region has exceeded 7000 cases today, says Africa’s Centre for Disease Control. Total cases of COVID-19 exceed 1 million as of 7:01:32 PM CET, with active case distribution globally. Numbers change rapidly. New Guidance Issued For Preventing COVID-19 In Refugee And Migrant Camps A new strategy called “shielding”, that aims to limit transmission of COVID-19 in migrant and refugee camps, has been proposed by the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine’s Health in Humanitarian Crises Centre. The strategy recommends that people at high-risk from COVID-19 be identified and separated from other camp members in so-called ‘green-zones’ for an extended period of time, so as to reduce their risks of serious illness and possible death. The zones, ideally, would be located as close as possible to primary health care and other essential services, to minimize their need for movement. The guidance notes that the kinds of ‘stay-at-home’ orders and self-isolation tactics that have been widely adopted in developed countries are unworkable in migrant camps and camp-like settings. And at the same time, overcrowding, poor access to safe water, sanitation and limited access to health services could also lead to very high rates of infection among camp residents. In the guidance, high-risk individuals are defined as those over the age of 60, as well as individuals that have low immunity due to genetic conditions or chronic diseases (e.g. HIV) or non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as high blood pressure, lung diseases or cancers. “Green Zones” can be established at the household level, as well as at the neighborhood level, or as part of a broader community approach. “Green Zones” can in fact be established at the household level, for older or weaker family members, as well as at the neighborhood level, or as part of a broader community approach – depending on the characteristics of the migrant camp or settlement, the document suggests. The guidance document suggests that “social care committees” can coordinate the shielding response and facilitate acceptance of and adherence to the shielding measures. Grace Ren, Tsering Llamo, and Zixuan Yang contributed to this story Image Credits: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , COVID-19 India , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. UN Climate Conference Postponed Until 2021 Due To COVID-19; Experts Debate Pandemic’s Impact On Climate Action 02/04/2020 Elaine Ruth Fletcher & Svĕt Lustig Vijay Iceberg melting in Iceland The critical UN Climate Conference of Parties (COP26) that was scheduled to take place in Glasgow, in November, has been postponed until 2021 as a result of the COVID-19 emergency. “The COP26 UN climate change conference set to take place in Glasgow in November has been postponed due to COVID-19,” stated an official message by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to UN member states and observers. “This decision has been taken by the COP Bureau of the UNFCCC, with the UK and its Italian partners. Dates for a rescheduled conference in 2021, hosted in Glasgow by the UK in partnership with Italy, will be set out in due course following further discussion with parties. In light of the ongoing, worldwide effects of COVID-19, holding an ambitious, inclusive COP26 in November 2020 is no longer possible. Rescheduling will ensure all parties can focus on the issues to be discussed at this vital conference and allow more time for the necessary preparations to take place. We will continue to work with all involved to increase climate ambition, build resilience and lower emissions.” Patricia Espinosa, UNFCC Executive Secretary said that the decision had been reached after receiving “a detailed assessment from the representative of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the host of COP 26. Patricia Espinoza, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change. “COVID-19 is the most urgent threat facing humanity today, but we cannot forget that climate change is the biggest threat facing humanity over the long term”. Espinoza added. However, she named no future date for the meeting, saying only: “The Government of the United Kingdom will initiate consultations with Parties and stakeholders to identify a suitable new date for the Conference which will be presented to the Bureau for its endorsement,” said the official message to UN member states and observer organizations. The COP26 meeting has been viewed as particularly critical both in light of the speed at which climate change is occuring, and the huge gap in mitigation commitments to slow its current pace. As the five year mark since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries were due to submit new, more ambitious long-term goals to reduce emissions at COP26. Despite the delay, the head of the European Green Deal initiative of the European Commission, pledged to continue efforts towards dramatic reductions in carbon emissions by 2030. “We will not slow down our work domestically or internationally to prepare for an ambitious COP26, when it takes place”, said Frans Timmermans, executive vice-president for the European Green Deal in a statement. The European Commission’s plans are “on track” to present by September 2020 a detailed plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50-55% compared to 1990 levels, in line with EU’s 2030 ambitions, he added. “At home, we have put in place the key EU laws to meet our existing 2030 climate and energy targets. In the long-term, we have committed to climate neutrality by 2050 and proposed a climate law that will make this objective legally binding. The legislative work on this proposal has started, even in these challenging circumstances. “An impact assessed plan to raise the EU’s 2030 ambitions and cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50-55% compared to 1990 levels is on track, and the Commission will stick to that. The same goes for the work necessary to submit an enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC in line with our commitment under the Paris Agreement,” he said. Countries are “not off the hook and will be held accountable” to display greater climate ambition when the COP26 finally does convene, said Tassnem Essop, Executive Director of Climate Action Network International, a worldwide network of some 1300 NGOs in over 120 countries. “The postponement of the COP does not mean a postponement in climate ambition”, he said. Experts Debate Long-Term Impacts of Pandemic on Political Will For Climate Action Rooftop assembly of solar panels in New York City has given way to makeshift construction of COVID-19 hospital tents. Some observers of the COVID-19 emergency, including billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates, have recently asserted that the crisis can be a catalyst for more coherent action on other global challenges because it is facilitating innovation, and more direct, daily collaboration amongst scientists and between scientists and policymakers. “Until we get out of this crisis, COVID will dominate, and so some of the climate stuff, although it will still go on, it won’t get that same focus,” Gates said in a recent Ted Talk, but he added that, “As we get past this, yes, that idea of innovation and science and the world working together, that is totally common between these two problems. And so I don’t think this has to be a huge setback for climate.” Observed Espinosa in her statement on the COP-26 postponement. “This is an opportunity for nations to green their recovery packages, an opportunity to include the most vulnerable in those plans, and an opportunity to shape the 21st century economy in ways that are clean, green, health, just, safe and more resilient. In the meantime, we continue to urge nations to significantly boost climate ambition in line with the Paris Agreement.” Leading scientists and environmentalist have also pointed out that the illegal hunting and consumption of endangered wild animal species, such as the pangolin, were in fact drivers that contributed to the leap of the coronavirus from bats to other animals in China’s wild animal markets, and then to humans. Logically then, ecosystem stability should be considered more seriously by policymakers in the wake of COVID-19. “Nature is sending us a message,” Inger Andersen, head of the United Nations Environment Programme said in a recent interview, noting that some 75% of new infectious diseases originate from animals. Longstanding environmental campaigns to halt illegal wildlife trade and the destruction of habitats are all the more improtant now, so as to prevent future outbreaks like Covid-19. Still, the pandemic is also a bitter reminder of the barriers to coherent global action, as well as the fact that the public as well as most politicians tend to avoid dealing with long-term and unseen environmental health threats – at least until the moment when people are literally, dropping dead in hospital corridors. Writing in Foreign Policy, one senior official to former US President Barack Obama said that the extreme measures governments are taking on COVIVD-19 may have given hope to “climate activists that similarly ambitious policies might be possible to address global warming, which many consider a similar existential threat. “Yet that would be the wrong lesson to draw, as the very same barriers preventing an effective COVID-19 response continue to keep climate change action out of reach,” “said Jason Bordoff, a former U.S. National Security Council senior director in the Obama White House. “Cities across the world are shutting down businesses and events, at great cost. Yet the effectiveness of any one government’s action is limited if there are weak links in the global effort to curb the pandemic—such as from states with conflict or poor governance—even if the world is in agreement that eradicating a pandemic is in every country’s best interest,” he said. “Climate change is even harder to solve because it results from the sum of all greenhouse gas emissions and thus requires aggregate effort, a problem particularly vulnerable to free-riding,” added Bordoff, now a professor and founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. “The pandemic is a reminder of just how wicked a problem climate change is because it requires collective action, public understanding and buy-in, and decarbonizing the energy mix while supporting economic growth and energy use around the world,” said Bordoff. Cleaner Skies Now – Dirtier Ones Later Of course, COVID-19 may deliver some short-term climate benefits by “curbing energy use, or even longer-term benefits if economic stimulus is linked to climate goals — or if people get used to telecommuting and thus use less oil in the future,” Bordoff acknowleged. “Yet any climate benefits from the COVID-19 crisis are likely to be fleeting and negligible.” Historically, building political will around environmental goals is usually more difficult during periods of economic downturn, he added. “Historically, there is an inverse relationship in the United States and Europe between public concern about the environment and worries about economic conditions. Similarly, concern about economic growth has often caused China to ratchet back its environmental ambitions. Just last week, China was reportedly considering relaxing emissions standards to help struggling automakers,” he noted. A similar pattern is also emerging, in the United States. On Monday, the US Environmental Protection Agency announced that it would relax vehicle fuel economy standards for vehicles for model year 2021, as well as for model years 2022-2026, which had been approved under the Obama administration. The rules, which would lead to the release of 900 million more tons of CO2 every year, are being opposed by the State of Califorinia, but the Trump administration is also trying to strip states of the authority to enact stricter vehicle emissions rules. And last Thursday, the US Environmental Protection said that it would suspend enforcement of a wide range of environmental regulations regarding, air, water, wastewater and even hazardous waste emissions – until the COVID-19 crisis is over, noting that companies violating emissions rules might be excused from their violations if they were somehow associated to COVID-19. “During this extraordinary time, EPA believes that it is more important for facilities to ensure that their pollution control equipment remains up and running and the facilities are operating safely, than to carry out routine sampling and reporting” said EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler in a statement. “The Trump administration is cynically abusing this crisis to achieve its pre-COVID-19 goal of gutting US environmental regulations. The decision to indefinitely suspend the protections afforded by environmental laws will kill or compromise the health of large numbers of people”, warned Richard Pearshouse, Amnesty International’s head of Crisis and Environment, in a statement. -Tsering Llhamo and Zixuan Yang contributed to this story. Image Credits: Andrew Bowden, Patricia Espinosa C., Renovus Solar. COVID-19 Is World’s Biggest Challenge Since World War II, Says UN Secretary General 01/04/2020 Gauri Saxena & Grace Ren and Elaine Ruth Fletcher Temporary COVID-19 treatment unit being set up in Central Park, New York City The COVID-19 pandemic is the biggest challenge the world has faced since the Second World War, said United Nations’ Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. He spoke during the launch of a report on the potential socioeconomic impact of the outbreak, Shared Responsibility, Global Solidarity. Speaking from the UN Headquarters in New York on Tuesday, Guterres said that “the new coronavirus disease is attacking societies at their core, claiming lives and people’s livelihoods.” The economic fallout of the outbreak could trigger a recession of unprecedented scale, as up to 25 million jobs could be lost globally as well as a 40% reduction in global foreign direct investment flows. In his statement, Guterres also called upon the G-20 to move ahead with a special Africa initiative, discussed at the extraordinary G20 Summit last week. And he called upon developed countries more generally to bolster health systems and response capacity in lower income nations, saying that, “Otherwise we face the nightmare of the disease spreading like wildfire in the global South with millions of deaths and the prospect of the disease re-emerging where it was previously suppressed. “Millions and millions” could die in Africa without intervention, he later told France 24. Just a day later on Wednesday, the African Development Bank group approved a $2 million emergency grant for countries of the WHO African Region boost surveillance systems, procure and distribute laboratory test kits and reagents, and support coordination mechanisms at national and regional levels. The regional office of WHO Africa reported 3762 confirmed cases and 92 deaths on Tuesday night; South Africa remained the most heavily affected country with 1353 cases but Algeria had the most deaths at 35. The White House Predicts Over 100,000 Coronavirus Deaths in the US Meanwhile, top United States health authorities said that a “best-case scenario” for the pandemic would see the deaths of nearly 100,000 to 240,000 people in the United States. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, leading experts on President Donald Trump’s COVID-19 Task Force, issued the warnings during a White House press conference Tuesday night, with reference to projections produced by the Seattle-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME). Keeping the curve to the lower end of 100,000 deaths or less, will be contingent on effective enforcement of social distancing and other disease control measures, they stressed. Speaking at the press conference, President Trump warned Americans to brace themselves for a “very, very painful two weeks”, as he announced more severe nationwide measures to be implemented to curb the coronavirus. But he also pointed out that in the absence of such measures, the United States could face as many as 12.2 million deaths, according to projections by Imperial College London cited by Birx earlier in the briefing. Officials were quick to point out that the death projections are not static, given that hotspots like New York and New Jersey are pulling the estimates upwards, but in other states, such as California and Washington, authorities have managed to reduce infection transmission. The state of New York has emerged as the epicentre of the pandemic in the United States, recording over 75,000 confirmed cases and over 1,500 deaths, Governor Andrew Cuomo has said that the outbreak is not expected to peak for another three weeks. “I’m tired of being behind this virus. We’ve been behind this virus from day one. We underestimated this virus. It’s more powerful, it’s more dangerous than we expected,” he said in a press briefing earlier in the day. The United States currently has a total of almost 190,000 confirmed cases with over 4,000 deaths. A preliminary report by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated that 78% of coronavirus patients admitted in intensive care as well as 94% of those who died in the US had at least one underlying chronic condition. People with diabetes, lung disease and heart disease appear to be at higher risk of severe illness, CDC found, which is consistent with findings from Italy and China. As a vivid symbol of the expanding emergency, Mount Sinai Hospital system in New York City was set to open a field hospital in Central Park, in collaboration with Samaritan’s Purse. The tent hospital units, delivered from North Carolina, will provide overflow capacity for Mount Sinai’s COVID-19 patients, with 68 more beds. Italy Extends Lockdown Measures — Even As Infection Curve Plateaus Italy’s civil protection authority has reported that the number of reported coronavirus infections is rising at a slower rate — the country has recorded daily increases around 4-5% in the past 4 days, which is 3-4 times less than the rates recorded two weeks ago. Silvio Brusaferro, the president of Italy’s Higher Health Institute (ISS) told The Guardian “That doesn’t mean we’ve hit the peak and that it’s over, but that we must start the descent … by applying the measures in force”. In an effort to halt the continued rise in cases, lockdown measures currently in place have been extended till April 13; Italy now has over 105,000 cases, and has reported over 12,000 deaths, one of the highest national death rates from the virus. Over 15,000 people have also recovered. Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza said the new trend was a sign that measures are yielding results, but added it would be “unforgivable to assume this was a definitive defeat” of the virus. Customers queuing in Toulouse, France, as part of social distancing measures taken to reduce crowding in supermarkets during the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate of infection increases in Spain was also stabilizing somewhat following drastic containment measures. María José Sierra of the centre of health emergencies said “generally speaking, we can say that yesterday’s rise in cases, which was around 8%, tells us that we’re carrying on in the stabilisation phase of the pandemic”. The country has seen a dip in daily infection rates from 20% between 15 to 25 March to below 12% since then. However, in neighboring France, new infections rose overnight by 15%. In Switzerland, meanwhile, the Geneva University Hospital (HUG) announced that it was launching a study of serological samples, to be collected from among research volunteers, to examine the extend to which Swiss citizens and residents might be infected with the virus asymptomatically, as well as the degree to which exposure might have conferred immunity. As many as 83,300 cases, and 720 deaths, could be expected in Switzerland by 11 April 2020 researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich predicted in a paper published Wednesday on the preprint server MedRxiv. Switzerland currently has reported 17,139 confirmed cases and 378 deaths, although it is believed that many cases have gone unreported insofar as testing has so far largely been confined to people at high risk and with serious symptoms. For the country of 8.5 million people, this still ranks as one of the highest per-capita disease rates in the world, although deaths have remained comparatively low at about .02% of those confirmed ill. In the absence of social distancing interventions, up to 42.7% of the entire Swiss population would have been infected with COVID-19 by 25 April, the researchers also said. The assessments align with previous studies published on the benefits of “non-pharmaceutical interventions” such as closures and stay-at-home orders on slowing the spread of the virus. Cumulative cases and global distribution. Numbers change rapidly Concerns for Vulnerable Populations Increases As governments take measures to protect their citizens from the rising COVID-19 pandemic, experts were increasingly concerns about potential devastating effects on indigenous peoples, refugees, and others worldwide who lack formal citizenship rights in the countries where they are living. Four UN agencies released a statement Tuesday that called for the protection of those at “heightened risk,” including “refugees, those forcibly displaced, the stateless and migrants.” According to the statement, “many refugees live in overcrowded camps, settlements, makeshift shelters or reception centres, where they lack adequate access to health services, clean water and sanitation.” Up to three-quarters of the world’s 70.8 million forcibly displaced people are hosted in countries where health systems are “already overwhelmed and under-capacitated.” As one example, the 10 cases and 1 death reported so far in war-torn Syria may be a sign of a bigger crisis to come, Mark Lowcock, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator told the Security Council, warned the UN Security Council in a meeting Monday. “That is the tip of the iceberg,” he said in a UN press release, warning that only half of Syria’s hospitals and primary health-care centres were fully functional at the end of 2019. And while the UN has assisted in rehabilitating the Central Public Health Laboratory, pre-positioning medical supplies, and upgrading isolation units around the country; the fragility of the health system and critical supply chains further complicate COVID-19 measures. Cross-border deliveries of aid supplies between Turkey and north-west Syria have more than doubled compared to the same period last year to 2150 trucks per day. Some US $340 million has so far been received by the UN Office of Humanitarian Affairs under a US $500 million funding call. Meanwhile, as confirmed cases soar beyond 12,000 in South America, indigenous tribes in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have taken matters into their own hands in the face of what they call “a historic danger,” as quoted in the Guardian. The Xingu people in Brazil have sealed off roads into their reserve and are urging locals to leave only for emergencies, as the country’s number of confirmed cases topped 5500 and deaths rose to over 200. In Colombia, which has almost 900 confirmed cases so far, tribes have been self-isolating and outlawing visits to their ancestral lands while collaborating with local governments to procure adequate supplies. Isolated tribes living in areas with fragile health systems, are particularly susceptible to acute, highly infectious diseases. Outbreaks of measles, smallpox and flu viruses had a long track record of “decimating” indigenous communities. Some countries are taking more widespread social welfare measures for vulnerable populations. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a US$24 billion welfare package to provide free food rations for 800 million disadvantaged people, cash transfers to 204 million poor women, and free cooking gas for 80 million households for the next 3 months. Health Experts Revisit Benefits of Wearing Masks in Public As the intensity of coronavirus infections rises in many parts of the world, health experts are beginning to reconsider whether the general public should wear face masks after all. Until now, the World Health Organization as well as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have recommended the use of face coverings only for the sick or for health workers treating those who might be ill. However, CDC director Robert Redfield said that this recommendation is currently under review. The US CDC recommendation under consideration would specifically recommend fabric masks, or do-it-yourself type masks for the general public, reports the Washington Post. Medical grade masks such as surgical masks or N95 respirators – which are in desperately short supply around the world – would still be restricted to use by healthcare workers. At his press briefing on Tuesday, even President Trump has encouraged the public to cover their faces with scarves when they go out, so that masks may be reserved for healthcare workers. “I can tell you that the data and this issue of whether it’s going to contribute [to prevention] is being aggressively reviewed as we speak,” Redfield told NPR in an interview. Many prominent healthcare experts have weighed in on the issue, including former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb. In a paper he published with American Enterprise Institute, a conservative US policy think tank, Gottlieb recommended supplementing social distancing measures with the widespread use of facemasks, citing the large numbers of asymptomatic cases that go undetected. “Face masks will be most effective at slowing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 if they are widely used, because they may help prevent people who are asymptomatically infected from transmitting the disease unknowingly”, says Gottlieb, citing South Korea and Hong Kong as places where facemasks were widely used, and managed to successfully control the outbreaks. Similarly, other individual experts have advocated for the use of facemasks as a socially responsible insurance policy. And countries are beginning to act as well. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday issued a new order that anyone leaving their homes should wear a mask “or other face covering”, making it the first country outside China to adopt mandatory mask usage while out in public. Hungary this week also ordered people visiting supermarkets to wear facemasks in order to risk infection spread in venues that often remain crowded with customers. Street scene in France. Universal masking being reconsidered. Tobacco Industry Joins the COVID-19 Vaccine Race British American Tobacco (BAT), the world’s second largest cigarette maker, announced that it would launch an effort to develop a COVID-19 vaccine using tobacco plants, joining a global effort that has generated over 90 potential vaccine candidates so far. Using plant-based production, the company claimed in a press release that between 1-3 million doses of vaccine could be manufactured per week by June. The process works by first identifying and cloning an antigen – an immune-response generating portion of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 – into a tobacco plant. The antigen can then be purified from grown and harvested tobacco plants in as little as 6 weeks. The tobacco plant production method was used by BAT’s US bio-tech subsidiary, Kentucky BioProcessing (KBP), to successfully manufacture the Ebola treatment ZMapp in 2014. “KBP has been exploring alternative uses of the tobacco plant for some time. One such alternative use is the development of plant-based vaccines,” said David O’Reilly, director of Scientific Research at BAT. “We are committed to contributing to the global effort to halt the spread of COVID-19 using this technology.” However, the SARS-CoV-2 antigen that would supposedly be purified and used for the production, is still being evaluated in preclinical tests. Image Credits: Samaritan's Purse, Wikimedia Commons: Alteo31300. Strong Age-Linked COVID-19 Death Risk Confirmed By Largest-Ever Study Of Chinese Population Infected 31/03/2020 Grace Ren, Svĕt Lustig Vijay & Elaine Ruth Fletcher A new study examining data from nearly 90% of mainland China’s confirmed COVID-19 cases found that the death rate among people older than 80 was 13.4%, as compared to only .32% for people under the age of 60. Almost one in five patients over the age of 80 were likely to require hospitalisation, as compared with around 1% of people under 30, according to an analysis of a subset of 3,665 cases. The analysis, published Tuesday in the Lancet Journal of Infectious Diseases is the first large-scale study to account for long-presumed underestimation of mild or asymptomatic cases in death rate and hospitalization rate estimates. It is also the first to include data on infections among Wuhan expats who were airlifted out of the city at the outset of the lockdown, as well as cases linked to the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While the crude case fatality rate was 3.67%, the authors estimated that the true average death rate, including milder, under-reported cases, was around 1.38%. Based on an analysis of cases among Wuhan expats, the authors also proposed that accounting for all COVID-19 infections could yield an even lower infection-fatality rate of about .66%. The Lancet study examined a total of 70,117 laboratory-confirmed and clinically-diagnosed cases in mainland China, or about 80% of cases reported there so far, as well as 689 positive cases among people evacuated from Wuhan on repatriation flights and cases identified on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While still considerably higher than the death rates for seasonal flu (.01%), the 1.38% average case fatality ratio is significantly lower than the crude case fatality ratios cited by most sources until now, including the World Health Organization. However, the authors’ assumptions about the widespread circulation of asymptomatic infections also contradicts another large-scale study that examined that issue. The report of some 320,000 Chinese in Guangdong Province, found that only .14% of people tested in fever clinic screenings were infected with the virus. It is therefore likely that the true rate of mild and asymptomatic infections will continue to be debated until more large-scale serological studies are undertaken. “Our estimates can be applied to any country to inform decisions around the best containment policies for COVID-19,” says Azra Ghani, an author on the paper and professor at the Imperial College London, UK, in a press release. “There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention, but our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalisation is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal.” However, the authors caution that up to 50% to 80% of the global population could be infected with COVID-19 in the absence of any interventions, meaning that the number of people needing hospital treatment is likely to overwhelm even the most advanced healthcare systems worldwide. According to The Lancet study, after adjusting for underreporting of mild cases, older adults faced the highest risk of requiring hospitalization from the infection at 18.4%, compared to an estimated hospitalization rate of 3.4% in people in their 30s, and 1% for people in their 20s. The Lancet study, however, still contrasts sharply with hospitalization and mortality data from confirmed cases in some hotspots such as Italy and the United States. In Italy, WHO officials reported that up to 50% of those hospitalized for COVID-19 are under the age of 50. A report released by the US Centers for Disease Control earlier this month found that 38% of hospitalized cases in the country were under the age of 55. Case fatality and hospitalization rates can “vary slightly from country to country because of differences in prevention, control, and mitigation policies implemented,” said Shigui Ruan, an infectious disease modeling researcher at the University of Miami in a separate Lancet Comment on the study. Thus, each country’s hospitalization and death rates are ” substantially affected by the preparedness and availability of health care,” he added. A separate study published Monday by Imperial College, London estimated that across 11 European countries “Non-pharmaceutical interventions” such as case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, widescale social distancing and national lockdowns helped avert up to 59,000 deaths by COVID-19. Between 7-43 million individuals had been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 as of 28 March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population, the study concluded. The attack rate – or rate of new infections – caused by the virus is estimated to be highest in Italy and Spain, and lowest in Germany and Norway. BARDA Branch Of US Health Agency Takes Over Clinical Trials for 2 Vaccine Candidates Meanwhile, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) branch of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said that it would take over late-stage development of the first COVID-19 vaccine candidate to enter Phase I clinical trials, mRNA-1273. The federal agency will also step in to support early development of another potential vaccine with an eye to rolling it out for emergency use in the US by early 2021. Originally created through a collaboration between Moderna, Inc and the US National Institute of Allergies and Infections Diseases (NIAID), the company will now shift to collaborating with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), to move mRNA-1273 through Phase II and Phase III clinical trials. 3D print of a spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus In a parallel development, BARDA will collaborate with the Janssen R&D arm of the US pharma firm, Johnson & Johnson (J&J), to accelerate non-clinical trials and Phase I trials of their investigational vaccine, Ad26 SARS-CoV-2. The Phase 1 clinical trial is set to begin no later than fall of 2020 with the goal of making the COVID-19 vaccine available for emergency use in the United States in early 2021. At the same time, the agency is collaborating with J&J to make plans to produce up to 300 million doses of the vaccine every year for use in the United States. “Delivering a safe and effective vaccine for a rapidly spreading disease like COVID-19 requires accelerated action with parallel development streams,” said the BARDA Director Rick Bright in a press release. BARDA, as part of the HHS, can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials. Setting up processes now to run late-phase clinical trials and scale-up manufacturing rather than taking the more traditional sequential approach to vaccine development could “shave months off the timeline for vaccine development,” the agency claims. BARDA can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials – although it remains to be seen whether the patent rights associated with any successfully developed vaccines will be held by the US government or private companies. Depending on the terms and type of contract signed, HHS can do “pretty much anything,” James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International (KEI) said in an interview with Health Policy Watch. As one example, HHS could use federal funds to “buy-out” patents to contribute to a global “pool” of intellectual property rights, according to one KEI blog. “HHS/BARDA should explain what the contractual terms for data and patent rights were,” added Love. Experts Say COVID-19 Casts Risks From Climate Change & Environmental Degradation in Sharp Relief Meanwhile, looking towards the future, a WHO COVID-19 Special Envoy and the leader of the UN Development Programme’s Health and Development Group, warned that the world needs to meet critical climate and sustainable development goals in order to prevent the recurrence of further COVID-19 pandemics. “Most outbreaks are zoonotic,” noted Mandeep Dhaliwal – Director of UNDP’s HIV, Health and Development Group, speaking at a webinar on Tuesday organized by the global group, Health Care Without Harm. “We talk a lot about health system preparedness, readiness, response. But missing from that conversation are the environmental factors that result from human activity that cause those outbreaks. These are not addressed so we keep lurching from one outbreak to another.” The coronavirus, which scientists believe originated in bats, was likely transmitted to humans by wild animals, possibly a pangolin, a species that is hunted illegally and sold in live animal markets throughout Asia. Similarly, viruses circulating among gorillas and chimpanzees in Africa, hunted and sold as bushmeat, are believed to have sparked the 2014-16 West African Ebola outbreak as well as the HIV/AIDS epidemic. “The pace of zoonotic outbreaks is going to increase, and is going to be magnified in the ways that you saw with COVID-19,” Dhaliwal predicted, until stronger linkages were made to prevent the patterns of ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, which intensify human contact with wild animals, leading to higher risks of zoonotic infections. Conversely, she noted that environmental health risks such as air pollution “also make people more vulnerable to COVID-19,” as do climate-related health risks such as climate-induced food and nutrition insecurity. “COVID 19 changes everything from the way we work as a global community,” she said. “We will not be able to ignore this anymore – we need to do something about the human activity that is driving this [zoonotic infections], and those actions will have to come from outside the health sector. We need integrated solutions to address the climate crisis and zoonotic outbreaks.” Said David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on COVID-19. “This is an issue that requires all of the approaches that we developed in the sustainable development agenda, interconnectedness, working across all parts of society. The principles of the sustainable development have to be at the center of what we are trying to do. But can leaders manage this, while still having their full attention on their people and the awful political trade-offs that they are having to make?” According to Health Care Without Harm, the worldwide pandemic and the climate crisis, are converging health emergencies. “With one, disease spreads like wildfire. And with the other, wildfires and other impacts, spread disease. While at first blush these two crises are not necessarily related to one another, there are a series of coronavirus – climate crisis connections that are worthwhile exploring, as they reveal several common causes, synergistic impacts and shared solutions.” Rate of New COVID-19 Infections Potentially Slowing Down in Europe Europe is still COVID-19’s epicentre, with almost 32 000 new cases since yesterday and over 2 500 new deaths. However, there were nearly 5000 fewer new cases in Europe reported on 30 March compared to 29 March, according to Monday night’s WHO situation report. Europe currently has 392,757 confirmed cases and 23,692 deaths. “Italy and Spain are potentially stabilizing and it is our fervent hope that this is the case. But we have to continue to push the virus down”, said Mike Ryan, executive director of the Health Emergencies Programme, at a WHO press conference yesterday. Donning gloves in the hospital storage room, Lecco, Lombardy. (Photo: Fabio Fadeli) Italy, which has about 13% of the world’s confirmed cases, is experiencing a decrease in new cases, with only 4000 new cases on the 30th of March compared to last week’s average of 5 500 new cases a day. Yesterday, the number of new cases in Spain was 6549 in comparison to 8189 new cases reported on the 29 March. To help respond to the unmet and urgent needs to tackle COVID-19, today, the Spanish government approved the distribution of 300 million euros to Spain’s Autonomous Regions. Israel may also be seeing a slowdown in the increase in cases. Israel which currently has 4831 cases, reported only 448 new cases yesterday compared to the weekend average of 606 new cases a day. Switzerland on Tuesday recorded 16176 cases and 373 total deaths, 701 more than the previous day. Some 78 new deaths were reported, marking the largest daily increase in deaths in the last seven days. Blood tests that are also able to detect asymptomatic cases are being developed and deployed both in Zurich and Geneva. The University Hospital in Zurich plans to test all incoming patients, whether ill or victims of accidents, to further detect new cases. The country is testing roughly 13,600 per million people, putting its per capita testing rate at higher than even South Korea. In the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Iran leads with a total of 40 000 total confirmed cases. In an unexpected move last week, Iran rescinded approval for Médecins Sans Frontieres’ (MSF) COVID-19 intervention in Isfahan. MSF’s charter planes, which were carrying material to build an inflatable 50-bed treatment unit, had already landed in Tehran. In the Americas, cases have steadily increased at about 21 000 new cases per day over the past two days. The USA, which has surpassed any other country in the world, has 164 610 confirmed cases as of today, 40% of which are in New York State. Yesterday, in a statement from New York’ Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Press Office, a new plan was announced to transfer patients between public and private hospitals to balance current demand with local capacity. Africa has confirmed 3486 cases, and has reported about 400 new cases a day. South Africa, which has about 40% of Africa’s cases, has experienced a dramatic reduction in new cases with a weekend average of 70, which is in stark comparison to numbers reported on 27 March, when the country peaked with 243 new cases. However, WHO experts have cautioned that low weekend reporting patterns and limited testing may lead to underestimates of the true case numbers in the continent. According to WHO’s daily situation report, there are 4048 cases in WHO’s Southeast Asia region as of Monday night. By Tuesday night, India, the most populous country in the region, had 1251 confirmed cases with 32 deaths. However, the country has one of the lowest testing rates in the world, at 32 tests per million. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 21-day lockdown, which began last Tuesday, has resulted in a mass exodus of daily wage migrant workers after losing their jobs and the order to return home. At least 22 deaths have been reportedly linked to the mass exodus. In anticipation of an upwards surge in cases, the Ministry of Railways has agreed to modify 20000 coaches into quarantine and isolation wards to supplement the country’s facilities. Total active of COVID-19 as of 7 p.m. CET 31 March. Right column shows confirmed cases. Numbers change rapidly. Gauri Saxena contributed to this story. Image Credits: NIAID, Johns Hopkins CSSE. WHO Nears $675 Million ‘Goal’ For COVID-19 Response – $622 Million Pledged 30/03/2020 Grace Ren & Svĕt Lustig Vijay WHO team of technical experts conclude a COVID-19 support mission to Egypt. The World Health Organization has received more than US $622 million of a US $675 million ask to fund WHO’s first Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan for COVID-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday. “We continue to be encouraged by the signs of global solidarity to confront and overcome this common threat,” said Dr Tedros, speaking at an afternoon press briefing. In a parallel development, Norway is leading an initiative to establish a multi-donor fund for the global COVID-19 response to assist developing countries, coordinating with the United Nations to launch the initiative within the next few days. “A multi-donor fund under UN auspices will provide predictability for our partners and help to make the efforts more effective,” said Minister of Foreign Affairs Ine Eriksen Søreide in a press release. ‘Experience from other crises shows that the earlier you start long-term response planning, the more precise and successful the effort becomes.” Unlike the UN Solidarity Fund, which is soliciting donations from individuals and private donors for the response, this fund will collate resources from major bilateral donors and international agencies, similar to the UN Ebola Response Fund set up in 2014 to address the emergency in West Africa. The fund will provide both immediate emergency aid to developing countries, and aid for longer term development initiatives to prop up weak health systems to prepare for future pandemics. In another meeting Monday with Ministers of Trade from the Group of 20 (G20) richest countries in the world, Dr Tedros also called on G20 countries to significantly their increase production of personal protective equipment (PPE), and ensure its equitable distribution of equipment around the world. “Specific attention should be given to low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America,” said Dr Tedros in a statement. “We call on countries to work with companies to increase production; to ensure the free movement of essential health products; and to ensure equitable distribution of those products, based on need.” However, hoarding and misappropriation of donated PPE equipment also may loom as a thorny problems that donors need to resolve. At the China-Uganda Friendship Referral Hospital near Kampala, one of three Ugandan reference hospitals for COVID-19 cases, health workers taking throat swabs from suspected COVID-19 patients and managing an isolation ward, lack basic protective gear except gloves, Health Policy Watch learned. N-95 masks must be purchased by the doctors and nurses out of pocket, and protective gowns and face shields are unavavilable. Gloves were provided by the hospital after workers threatened to strike, but when supplies run low, patients have to pay for those themselves before they are examined. WHO did not comment on the report. 154 NGOs Submit Open Letter Calling For Gilead To Retract Remdesivir Patent Applications Some 154 NGOs released an open letter Monday calling for Gilead Sciences to rescind its patent applications for remdesivir in 70 countries that could grant the company market exclusivity until 2031 on the experiemental drug, a promising potential COVID-19 treatment. The campaign, coordinated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), aligns closely with a growing movement within the medicines access community to push for mandatory “pooled” rights for COVID-19 technologies. In an unusual move, Gilead already asked the US FDA to rescind special “orphan drug” status for remdesivir last week after facing an intense public backlash, just days after recieving the designation. Orphan drug status would have granted Gilead an addition 7 years of market exclusivity. However, according to the MSF statement, the company still has pending patent applications for remdesivir in at least 70 other countries. “It is unacceptable for Gilead’s remdesivir to be put under the company’s exclusive control, taking into account that the drug was developed with considerable public funding for both early-stage research and clinical trials; the extraordinary efforts and personal risks that both healthcare workers and patients have faced in using the medicine in clinical trial settings; and the unprecedented disaster all countries are facing for their people, their healthcare systems, and their economies” said Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in a statement today. In the open letter, Gilead was urged to take immediate action in the public interest by declaring that it will drop all exclusive rights on patents, regulatory and trial data, as well as making all data required for development of generic drug versions publically available to enable their production and supply. Finally, Gilead was requested to improve its transparency by disclosing its existing supply and manufacturing capacity. “There is a further step to take, as a voluntary pool may not be sufficient, especially when the crisis intensity cools and public approbation for actions like Gilead’s Orphan designation abates,” said Paul Fehlner, President & CEO of reVision Therapeutics, in an interview with Health Policy Watch. “An entity dedicated to the public interest could obtain consequential legal exclusivities (Orphan drug designation, data and market exclusivity) and prevent opportunistic third parties from getting them”. According to Fehlner, creating a “pool” of rights would take minimum efforts, only requiring a willing coordinator to “aggregate data from ongoing trials worldwide and submit formal applications to health authorities.” “This crisis presents an immediate and urgent opportunity to wield the tools of exclusivity to promote access to medical products that may combat COVID-19,” said Fehlner. COVID-19 Trends As the United States now leads the world in coronavirus cases with 143,055 confirmed cases and 2,513 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins tracking database, President Trump extended the U.S. social distancing guidelines until the end of April, rescinding his earlier predictions that the lockdown would end by mid-April’s Easter holiday. Meanwhile, the UN donated 250,000 protective face masks to the USA from its New York headquarters to help combat the outbreak’s epicenter in New York. As the US is faced with rapidly increasing cases, inefficiencies from failed coronavirus tests, and shortage of ventilators, STATNews reports that the Genomics Institute led by Jennifer Doudna, the pioneer of CRISPR gene editing technology, will start running coronavirus tests in order to increase the turnaround time of testings in the San Francisco Bay Area. Over the weekend, Italy and Spain bolster efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus and flatten the curve. Italy, numbers 97,689 cases and 10,779 deaths, and Spain, numbers 85,195 cases and 7,340 deaths, have overtaken China’s 82,198 cases and 3,308 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins coronavirus tracking database. As infection increases, Italy has decided to extend its national lockdown beyond the April 3rd date while Spain tightens the national lockdown for all citizens, except for the workers in the essential sectors until April 9th. As the rate of infection within countries intensified, European countries began to depart from longstanding WHO guidance against the wearing of masks by the general public. Notably, Austria made masks obligatory for clients in supermarkets mandatory to curb airborne spread of the coronavirus amongst customers. Crowded supermarkets have been identified in a number of countries as nexus points for virus spread. However, until now, universal masking has only been practiced in Asia, while WHO repeatedly said the measure was unecessary elsewhere. The Hungarian Parliament, meanwhile, awarded wide-ranging powers to Prime Minister Viktor Orban for an indefinite period, to fight the pandemic, including curtailing free speech and other democratic rights. South-East and Western Asia In South-East Asia, the coronavirus was increasingly disrupting the lives of those living on the socioeconomic margins. After Prime Minister Modi’s surprise lockdown announcement, India’s daily wage earners struggle under the nationwide lockdown as many are stranded in cities without food, housing, and means of getting back home, particularly vulnerable are the Muslim minority who have been victims of recent riots over amendments to the naional citizenship bill. The challenges faced by the rural Indian migrants in the megacities post-lockdown has initiated one of the largest exodus of people back into the rural areas. Meanwhile, in the Western Pacific Region, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) postpones the Tokyo Summer Olympics to July 23rd, 2021 to August 8th, 2021. Online debates also continued to swirl around the degree of China’s influence on the WHO. On Sunday, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu tweeted a complaint referring a senior WHO official’s response to a question from a Hong Kong journalist, about whether WHO would reconsider Taiwan application for member state status. “Wow, can’t even utter ‘Taiwan’ in the WHO? You should set politics aside in dealing with a pandemic,” Wu wrote. Taiwan has accused WHO of ignoring its early warnings about the appearance of a novel coronavirus in mainland China, as well as brushing aside subsequent criticism that China repressed early news about the virus spread, which delayed a more systematic public health response. Overall, Europe continued to lead with half or more of the now active COVID-19 cases worldwide, followed by the United States. There were some 30,000 active cases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, including heavily hit Iran. South-East Asia was reporting nearly 3,600 active cases, and in WHO’s Africa region, there were more than 3,300 infections reported. In the Western Pacific Region, there were some 18,095 active cases, but only about 3,000 of those were in mainland China. Total cases of COVID-19 as of 8 p.m CET, with active case distribution globally. Numbers change rapidly. -Tsering Lhamo contributed to this report. Image Credits: WHO EMRO. ‘Anticipatory Anxiety’: Africa on Cusp of The COVID-19 Pandemic 30/03/2020 Kerry Cullinan Health workers in full protective gear do a COVID-19 throat swab in a Addis Ababa isolation centre. But in Kampala, Uganda, doctors have no suits and they must to purchae their own masks. CAPETOWN, South Africa – As many African countries opt for lockdowns to combat COVID-19, there is uncertainty over whether this will be enough to prevent the pandemic’s spread, or whether authorities will be able to implement this in overcrowded urban areas – as well as fears for patients with HIV, TB and other conditions that require monthly medication. There is a sense that Africans are on the shore watching the sea drawing back before the tsunami of infections hit, overwhelming the continent’s health facilities and killing thousands of people. In late February, just a handful of African countries had recorded a few COVID-19 cases. Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, with a high volume of air traffic from other affected regions of the world, were hit first. By yesterday (29 March), 4,282 cases of the virus had been recorded in 46 of the 54 African countries, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). WHO’s Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus recently warned the continent to “prepare for the worst”. African countries have been struggling to reconcile measures to arrest the virus, such as travel bans, social distancing and restricting public gatherings, with the need to protect their weak economies. More African Countries Using Lockdown Measures Amid the growing consensus that China’s reversal of its pandemic started from a lockdown, and this is the most effective way to reverse the pandemic, key African countries have opted for drastic measures to contain the virus in the past few days. Rwandans are in a 14-day lockdown which started on 22 March. Kenya has a night-time curfew and restrictions on gatherings. South Africa went into a 21-day total lockdown on Friday. Soweto, South Africa. Poverty and crowded conditions make lockdowns doubly difficult. “Those countries that have acted swiftly and dramatically have been far more effective in controlling the spread of the disease,” said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. “While this measure will have a considerable impact on people’s livelihoods, on the life of our society and on our economy, the human cost of delaying this action would be far, far greater.” The Democratic Republic of Congo implemented a four-day lockdown on Saturday, after the move had been delayed for a few days when the prices of essential goods spiked. Yesterday, Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari announced a 14-day lockdown for Lagos and Ogun state which comes into effect at 11pm Monday, 30 March. Ghanians living in Accra and Kumasi face a two-week lockdown from today. Zimbabweans also face a 21-day lockdown from today, and Lesotho citizens face a 25-day lockdown. Congo-Brazzaville goes into lockdown from tomorrow (Tuesday) and eight towns in Burkina Faso will be shut down from Friday for 14 days. However, implementing the lockdowns has proven challenging. South Africans may only leave their homes to buy basic groceries or medical supplies and there is a ban on the sale of alcohol. The South African National Defence Force has been brought in to support the police. Already, police used rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse shoppers in Johannesburg who were refusing to stand an arm’s length apart. Two Rwandans were reported to have been shot dead over the weekend, although that government subsequently denied that the shootings were related to the lockdown. Observers also fear that the heavy-handed application of lockdown measures, in the African context, will deprive people of access to food and essential services, including essential medical care. One worried Ugandan doctor who contacted Health Policy Watch related the story of an expectant mother living in a village some distance from Kampala, who had called him shortly after the country’s lockdown was announced on Monday, fearing that she was going into labour. “She has poor obstetric history,” he said. “A few days ago, she did an ultrasound scan that revealed a breech presentation. Her expected date of delivery is 3 April. She cannot access medical services since she is in the village, in a distance not walkable to the nearest facility where she can have ceaserian section done (if necessary). “‘I can not afford an ambulance because drivers often need fuel facilitation,’ she lamented. I was left speechless… She is opting to walk to the nearest traditional birth attendant for some magic. I felt this is worth sharing.” COVID-19 simulation exercise at the Kinshasa International Airport, Democratic Republic of Congo. Some Front-Line Health Workers Aren’t Getting PPE Supplies – Despite Massive WHO Shipments Meanwhile, epidemics experts are urging African governments to do whatever they can to protect the continent’s thin line of health workers. They urgently need personal protective equipment (PPE) such as masks, gloves and hand sanitiser. “But other measures are very important such as ventilation, spacing, early triage and separation of potential cases and increased access to water and supplies,” said Amanda McClelland, senior vice-president of PreventEpidemics, part of Vital Strategies’ Resolve to Save Lives programme. Dr Gilles van Cutsem, an infectious disease doctor and epidemiologist with Médicins sans Frontières (MSF), stressed that “there needs to be planning and preparation for screening and triage at health facilities to avoid overcrowding and saturation of hospitals, and ensure that hospitals do not become foci of transmission”. “In Italy and China triage tents were set up outside hospitals to receive and separate patients,” added van Cutsem. Meanwhile, HIV clinician Dr Francois Venter, deputy director of Reproductive Health and HIV Institute Johannesburg, urged those who are “mildly symptomatic” to stay away from health facilities to make sure that there is space for the very sick. Speaking after 14 days in quarantine, Venter said he had “anticipatory anxiety” as he waited for the deluge of patients. “I was almost disappointed that my [COVID-19] test was negative. For the first time in my life, I understand emotionally the relief that some of my gay clients expressed when they finally tested positive for HIV,” said Venter. While the WHO has reportedly sent large consignments of PPE to various African countries, shortages are still being reported all over the continent. There were only 60 N95masks distributed to some 280 health workers at China-Uganda Friendship Hospital near Kampala, a designated treatment facility for Covid-19 patients. Doctors and nurses performing COVID-19 tests have to purchase their own masks, according to one staff member, assigned to the COVID-19 isolation unit. That, despite the fact a WHO African “Readiness” Checklist showed Uganda to be equipped with masks and gloves. WHO Readiness Checklist shows Uganda equipped with PPE. Frontline health workers in Kampala isolation unit say they must buy their own masks. The hospital staff only received gloves after threatening to go on strike – although when gloves run short, patients are also asked to purchase them in order to be examined. When asked by Health Policy Watch about the reports of PPE shortages in Uganda’s COVID-19 units, WHO did not comment. Nor did it provide aggregate totals of PPE supplies that have been shipped to Africa until now. However, in a press briefing Monday, WHO Emergencies Head Mike Ryan said, “”We have already sent large numbers of PPE and diagnostics to the countries. It’s not enough. We are working with World Food Programme, Jack Ma Foundation, and Africa CDC to bring in PPE.” Jack Ma, founder of the Alibaba Group, is making a series of massive donations to regions across the world, including 1.1 million test kits, 6 million masks and 60,000 protective suits for Africa, which were due to begin distribution last week, according to Ethiopia’s Prime Minsiter, Abiy Ahmed Ali. Donations of PPE from by the Jack Ma Foundation land in Addis Ababa last week. McClelland recently returned from Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous African country, and has few illusions about the massive tasks that lie ahead: “There is still much more to do in Ethiopia to test and detect cases. The extent of transmission in this country with 105 million people is not really known.” There are two major challenges: preparing and training health workers – Ethiopia only has 19,000 – and engaging communities to change their personal behaviour to limit the spread. Sobering new data from Imperial College predicts that 250 critical care beds will be needed per 100, 000 people if the non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and restricting gatherings, are not successful in stemming the tide of infections. A recent report from Nigeria estimates that the country may only have around 500 ventilators for a population of over 200-million. Said Ryan, “The issue of ventilators is very important – but from the perspective of supporting patients, oxygen is also something we need to discuss.“Before ventilator support, what truly is lifesaving is the ability to give patients supplemental oxygen. When someone has COVID19 your lungs struggle to put oxygen in your blood. Every country in Africa has oxygen. We need to focus on getting better distribution of lifesaving oxygen. We are working to scale up the distribution of supplies and coordinate in a way that countries can expect a smooth service.” “Micro-Isolation” Tactics Used For Ebola May Help Contain COVID-19 While COVID-19 is a different kind of infection, with effects likely to eclipse the more deadly but less contagious diseases such as Ebola, the continent has learnt important lessons about epidemics from its experiences battling such viruses steadily, including during the 2014-2016 health emergency in West Africa, as well as the more 2018-2020 Ebola epidemic in DRC, now finally on the wane. While trying to contain Ebola, Guinea introduced a form of community quarantine called “micro-cerclage” (micro-encirclement) to limit the movement of people in Ebola-affected areas. Those showing symptoms of Ebola were placed in isolation while those close to them were asked to limit their movements. Limited essential movement – such as attending to crops – was allowed and was often monitored by people’s mobile phones. Amanda McCelelland, Prevent Epidemics Community leaders’ support for the policy was key, as were local response teams who enforced the monitoring. Affected households were also provided with food and basic toiletries. “Microcerclage is one approach that will potentially add real value to addressing COVID-19 but this will depend on the scale of community transmission,” says McClelland, who came face-to-face with Ebola while working in the Emergency Health Unit of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “If clusters can be detected early and isolated then this approach could help communities to not be negatively impacted and to continue to have access to key services and resources including food and water.” But a huge challenge is how to quarantine city dwellers. Over 20 million people live in crowded conditions in Lagos, five million live in Johannesburg and three million in Addis Ababa. “Self-isolation and restriction of population movement on a much larger scale in some cities would stretch the resources to be able to provide food, water and services on a citywide scale,” warned McClelland. Community Engagement Also Key Ebola also has negative lessons. “Without community engagement and trust, the outcomes can be devastating,” warned McClelland. “In the Ebola response, this tragically included violence against first responders. We must do everything we can to avoid this in the response to COVID-19.” In 2019 in the DRC alone, MSF recorded more than 300 attacks on Ebola health workers, during which six people were killed and 70 wounded. Stigmatising foreigners assumed to be infected with COVID-19 is already happening. On 18 March, the US embassy in Ethiopia issued a security alert warning of “a rise in anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19”. “Incidents of harassment and assault directly related to COVID-19 have been reported by other foreigners living within Addis Ababa and other cities throughout the country. Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones, denied transportation services, being spat on, chased on foot, and been accused of being infected with COVID-19,” according to the Embassy. Laboratory capacity has also been improved in many Ebola-affected countries, and Nigeria in particular has made substantial improvements in combating epidemics in the last few years. But Van Cutsem warned that the laboratory capacity of most African countries, aside from South Africa is “extremely poor”. “Countries have to find ways to improve the capacity of their laboratories to process tests, and we need the introduction of rapid tests,” said Van Cutsem. While some African leaders have speculated that the virus may not survive in high temperatures, McClelland simply says: “The short answer is we do not know yet. The science is still not clear. There is some evidence that, in a laboratory , the virus may be affected by warmer temperatures. But we also have transmission occurring in warm climates like Australia, the Middle East and South East Asia. Influenza transmits all year round in much of Africa and can actually be worse in dusty conditions. It is too early to assume Africa is protected due to heat and they must prepare with the same sense of urgency as other countries.” Hopes that the pandemic may be short-lived are not shared by experts who quietly talk about the current conditions continuing for many more months. “Settle down to this. Social isolation might be the new normal for the rest of the year. Look after your mental health, check in with people and be kind,” advises Venter. At the same time, in Africa, where large proportions of the population live below or on the verge of poverty, ensuring people’s basic needs during the COVID-19 emergency, will still remain the most fundamental priority, said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in a brieing Monday. “Some countries have strong social welfare systems, some countries don’t. I’m from Africa as you know, and I know some people have to work every single day to win their daily bread. And governments have to take this into account. If we are closing and limiting movement, what will happen to people who have to work on a daily basis? We don’t mean the effect as an average of GDP loss or general effect on the economy; we have to see what it means to an individual on the street.” – Kerry Cullinan is the health editor for openDemocracy 50.50, and based in South Africa. -Updated 31 March, 2020 Image Credits: Matt-80, © WHO/Otto B., © WHO/Kabambi E., Twitter: @AbiyAhmedAli , Vital Strategies , Courtesy of Kerry Cullinan. COVID-19 Testing Trends – Globally & Regionally 30/03/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 (HPW/Svet Lustig): How countries rank in COVID-19 tests/per million population. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Testing: the crux of effective outbreak responses Testing is an essential component of effective outbreak responses. Without widespread testing, we cannot know whether a disease is spreading nor take measures to appropriately respond to it. “All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded, they should know where the cases are, and that is how they can take decisions,” said Dr Tedros, WHO Director General. Health Policy Watch is tracking testing trends in countries around the world, based on data from FIND’s COVID-19 tracker. We display diagnostic capacity using two measures – cumulative testing by countries and trends showing change We have displayed the data using two measures: cumulative number of tests per million population, for all countries administering tests as of 28 March, and trends in selected countries over the past week. From the cumulative data, we can see how some countries, including Iceland, Bahrain, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland, far outpace other nations in terms of their rate of testing, per million people. We also see how many low and middle income countries across Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia still lack any significant test capacity, even while cases are rising. Importantly, we present testing data per million people to account for large population differences between countries. From the trends data, we can also see how countries such as Australia, Switzerland and the United States, have very rapidly ramped up testing over just the past week, while others, such as France and Great Britain, lag further behind. Testing Trends In Europe Within the past week, European countries such as Switzerland and the Czech Republic have doubled and tripled their testing capacity, respectively. Switzerland, which has one of the highest per-capita rates of infection in the world, has now administered 12,639 tests per million people. Countries like France and the UK, however, have not reported any changes in testing over the past week, with only 1,548 and 1,779 tests per million , respectively, despite increasingly high infection rates. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected countries of WHO’s European Region. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Americas Regions – High Income Australia has sharply increased its testing, with 8,134 tests per million on 28 March, double that of a week ago. While the USA has almost quadrupled its testing capacity in one week, it still has only administered a total of 2,032 tests per million, lagging behind many high-income regions. Trends covered are in selected high income countries of the region. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Western Pacific (WPRO), Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) and Americas (AMRO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. African, South-East Asian and Americas Regions – Low & Middle Income Trends here are for selected low- and middle-income coutnries that are testing significantly. In the African continent, South Africa leads with 539 tests per million. While South Africa’s testing capacity is still low in comparison to the rest of the world, this is still approximately double compared to last week. In Latin America, Chile has increased its testing five-fold for a cumulative total of 1209 tests per million; followed by Costa Rica, which has doubled its testing capacity to 600 tests per million. While testing capacity has almost doubled in India, as well, the country so far carried out only 20 tests per million people. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Americas (AMRO), African AMRO) and South East Asia (SEARO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. European Parliament Members Urge Open Licensing For COVID-19 Products Financed Through EU Grants 27/03/2020 Grace Ren Transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 (red), the virus that causes COVID-19 Some 33 Members of the European Parliament released an open letter Friday urging top leadership in the European Commission (EC) to prohibit exclusive licensing for COVID-19 products developed with European Union (EU) grants, and demanding transparency in the research and development pipeline to ensure affordability commitments are met. In a separate letter signed by 37 NGOs and over 50 experts in health and patent law, public health and medicine, called on the World Health Organization and all Member States to get behind Costa Rica’s initiative to “pool” COVID-19 patent rights for essential drugs, vaccines, and technologies. The letter was posted by Knowledge Ecology International, a global patent watchdog group. Those campaigns come right in the wake of the World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ Twitter endorsement of Costa Rica’s call to create the “pooled rights” initiative. “We cannot allow patients to be refused care because of financial constraints or shortages resulting from manufacturing or supply constraints,” said the Members of the European Parliament in the letter addressed to EC President Ursula Von Der Leyen; EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, and Youth, Mariya Gabriel; and EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner, Stella Kyriakides. Although the European Commission invests more than double of any private sector partner in EU-funded COVID-19 research, most of the calls for proposals so far do not seem to require companies or organizations to commit to affordability and access clauses, the MPs stated in their letter. Thus, it is even more important to enforce public oversight on the R&D process and bar exclusive licensing, they noted. For new products, companies should be required to commit to non-exclusive licensing on any developed health technology as a precondition for receiving EU funding, said the MPs. Granting exclusive licenses on new products could result in subsequent shortages, as only “one or very few companies” would be “allowed to produce an extremely timely medicine that is required in huge quantities worldwide,” the MPs stated. “From this moment forward, we require new medical tools to be immediately available once authorised for use, at an affordable price and in high enough quantities to meet global demand.” Responding to the calls, Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations warned that pooling patent rights would not likely enhance the global battle against the virus. “While voluntary pooling of intellectual property and other assets can be a tool to stimulate R&D and facilitate access under certain conditions, its effects to address the current pandemic will likely be very limited,” warned Cueni in a statement. “Tools already exist for governments to access the medicines they need, and they are already being used in a number of cases. “In addition, there are established organizations in place – such as the Medicines Patent Pool, a UN-backed initiative that uses a voluntary licensing and ‘pooled’ patent model to grant licenses to generics manufacturers – who have the expertise in licensing and managing an established pool of intellectual property assets,” Cueni added. As one such example, AbbVie Pharmaceuticals recently announced that it would offer through the Medicines Patent Pool licenses for its lopinavir/ritonavir drug combination without patent restrictions, after the HIV treatment was identified by the World Health Organization as one of the drug combinations to be tested in a multi-country trial against COVID-19. “Given the gravity and urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biopharmaceutical industry has not wasted any time or spared any effort in using its skills, technology and resources to bring safe and effective treatments, vaccines and diagnostic to patients around the world as a matter of utmost urgency,” added Cueni, pointing to a list of IFPMA commitments on the emergency. Civil Society Advocates Propose “Phased” Development of COVID-19 Patent Pool However, the proposed pool of patent rights for COVID-19 technologies would, in fact, build on the successes of the Medicines Patent Pool in expanding affordable access to medicines for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and hepatitis C, said Brook Baker, senior policy analyst at the Global Access Project, and a signatory on the KEI letter. “Simply put, no exclusive rights should stand in the way of governments’ and the global community’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Baker wrote in an opinion to Health Policy Watch on Costa Rica’s call to pool rights to drug development. To build agreement around the roll-out of a COVID-19 patent pool, the KEI letter also proposes a phased approach. An initial “phase-one” agreement would establish the minimum legal basis to permit such licensing in the future, and create a process for working out the details. Hammering out which technologies to share, the terms of authorization, and possible remuneration for the pooled licenses could be done at a later date, the KEI signatories suggest. However, the pool for COVID-19 products should go beyond medicines patents, per se, to address regulatory test data, research data, cell lines, basic science innovations, and other intellectual property, the signatories, including some 37 NGOs and 50 experts. Inputs to such a pool could come from governments that fund research and development or buy innovative products, as well as from universities, research institutes, charities, private companies and individuals who control rights, the letter suggests. In parallel moves, two other large NGOs, Médecins Sans Frontières and the Treatment Action Group released separate public statements Friday calling for national governments to prepare to override patent protections as well as to take other measures, such as enacting price controls, to ensure availability of COVID-19 medicines, vaccines, and other medical tools. TAG threw its weight behind the MSF call, earlier in the week, for a US $5 price tag on a rapid COVID-19 test that can be used on the GeneXpert TB platform, which has thousands of diagnostics instruments in Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia. “We know too well from our work around the world what it means to not be able to treat people in our care because a needed drug is just too expensive or simply not available,” said Dr Márcio da Fonseca, Infectious Disease Advisor at MSF’s Access Campaign in the statement. South Africa, one of the first middle-income countries to embrace the Cepheid COVID-19 test, announced that it will begin using the new GeneXpert COVID-19 tests to leverage the large network of over 180 machines in the country to ramp up rapid testing, as total confirmed cases in the country crossed the 1000 cases threshold. The first test cartridges will be available for use in April. Ad for generic lopinavir/ritonavir HIV drug combination, originally marketed as Kaletra by AbbVie, which relinquished its patent rights to the COVID-19 campaign First Patient in WHO’s COVID-19 SOLIDARITY Trial Enrolled in Norway At the University of Oslo Hospital in Norway, the first patient was enrolled Friday in WHO’s massive multi-country SOLIDARITY trial to collect data on potential COVID-19 treatments. This followed on an announcement by Prime Minister Erna Solberg of a 2.2 billion NOK (US$ 211) additional investment into the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) COVID-19 vaccine development efforts. That was in addition to a 1.6 billion NOK (US$ 153.6 million) investment in the Oslo-based CEPI vaccine efforts. “We are in a global quest for knowledge unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Noweigian Minister of Health Bent Høie in a press briefing. “We can save lives, protect healthcare professionals and all others from getting the disease.” The Norwegian SOLIDARITY trial patient will be the first to take part in this WHO-organized global effort to test four potential COVID-19 treatments under a simplified protocol, so that even low-resourced healthcare facilities could participate. The drugs to be tested include Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir; the lopinavir/ritonavir originally developed by AbbVie Inc. for HIV/AIDs along with beta interferon; as well as the anti-malarials chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. Another arm of the trial is also starting on Friday in Spain. The SOLIDARITY Trial began as global case counts surpassed half a million, and total deaths surged over 26,000. “These are tragic numbers,” said Dr Tedros. Some countries are already administering the medications ad-hoc on a compassionate use basis, as well as stockpiling for future mass use. But WHO’s Dr Tedros has cautioned against widespread use of such treatments without strong evidence – following media reports of people self-medicating with the substances or ones similarly named. One man in the United States, for instance, died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used in aquarium cleaning, following US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, according to the Associated Press. “We call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19,” said Dr Tedros. “The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn’t work in humans or were actually harmful.” In one example, he said that “during the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial. “We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.” Contrary to WHO’s cautious approach, a prominent bioethicist suggested a radical approach to fast-tracking vaccine development – purposefully infecting young healthy volunteers with the virus and seeing whether the vaccine protects against infection. In a preprint paper, Director of the Center for Population–Level Bioethics (CPLB) at Rutgers University Nir Eyal suggested that despite placing participants at risk of “severe disease and death”, such a ‘human challenge’ study design could “subtract many months” from the vaccine licensure process, reducing the global burden of coronavirus morbidity and mortality. COVID-19 cases worldwide as of Friday evening. Numbers change rapidly. Image Credits: NIAID. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts This site uses cookies to help give you the best experience on our website. Cookies enable us to collect information that helps us personalise your experience and improve the functionality and performance of our site. 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COVID-19 Infections Hit One Million Mark; Countries Must Protect Health & Livelihoods During COVID-19 Pandemic Say WHO and IMF 02/04/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay As the global count of COVID-19 cases hit the sobering 1 million mark Thursday midnight, countries should not have to face the choice of protecting lives or protecting livelihoods, World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a Friday press briefing. More than half of the new cases reported worldwide were still in WHO’s Europe Region, but an explosion of cases in low- and middle-income countries points to a looming health and economic crises in some of the world’s weakest health systems. “We know that this is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic,” said Dr Tedros. “The restrictions many countries have put in place to protect health are taking a heavy toll on the income of individuals and families, the economies of communities and nations”. Countries around the globe have enacted widespread lockdowns in an effort to slow the spread of the virus, forcing businesses and employers to close or scale back operations. Millions of workers, particularly day wage workers, have lost their jobs overnight. “This is a crisis like no other, never in the history of the IMF we have witnessed the world economy coming to a standstill,” said Georgieva. “We are now in recession, it is way worse than the global financial crisis.” Of particular concern are “emerging markets” in developing countries, said IMF’s Georgieva, which are hardest hit and have less resources to protect themselves from both the virus and the global recession. Since the beginning of the pandemic, nearly US $90 billion in capital has left such emerging economies. “Many countries are facing this dilemma of do they provide support to people to survive, or fight the virus,” said Georgieva. “We want to fight this false dilemma.” “The issue of debt in developing countries must be addressed urgently,” she added. The IMF is providing debt relief for its poorest countries through a catastrophic containment relief trust support. Along with the World Bank, the IMF is also calling on bilateral creditors to place a moratorium on official debt payments to provide space for countries to address immediate priorities. Georgieva’s message on debt echoed the moratorium on debt for developing countries put forward by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTD) in Monday’s $2.5 trillion coronavirus crisis package for developing countries. So far, more than 90 countries have applied for emergency financing from the IMF. Rwanda’s request was granted today – and two other African countries requests will likely be approved today, said Georgieva. The IMF aims to double the normal amount of emergency financing offered to countries. On where the funds should be directed in the short term response, Dr Tedros said that governments should be strengthening the foundations of the health system, paying their healthcare workers and removing financial barriers to care, and setting up social welfare support for the most vulnerable. The WHO also voiced their concern today about lifting restrictions too quickly, and the importance of developing effective transition strategies as outbreaks in countries begin to dampen. “If countries rush to lift restrictions quickly, the coronavirus could resurge, and the economic impact could be more severe and prolonged”, said Dr. Tedros. “We don’t want to have cycles of lockdown and release. This is not what anybody needs right now. The way to avoid that is a transition strategy to get ahead of the virus . Like this, we can protect our economies”, said Mike Ryan, Executive Director of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme. COVID-19 Surge Past 1,000,000 Cases Worldwide COVID-19 infections hit the one million mark on Thursday evening, according to latest reports by Worldometer, an independent digital team tracking case counts by official national and global sources. COVID-19 hits the one million mark today. More than half of the new cases worldwide over the past 24 hours were still being recorded in WHO’s European region. New cases in Europe totaled 38 809, with Spain, Germany, France, Italy and the UK accounting for almost three quarters of new cases. As France approached the tipping point in demand for intensive care units, a National Ethics Consultation Committee had established “ethical support units” to “help doctors make difficult choices about which patients with “COVID-19 to treat in intensive care”. A summary of the new guidance was also published in English by the British Medical Journal. In the Americas, meanwhile, there were 28 161 new cases over the 24-hour period between 1 April -2 April, largely in the United States. As the USA’s numbers continue to increase to almost 245,573 confirmed cases, the Governor of Florida finally bent to national directives and issued stay-at-home orders for state residents yesterday. Overall, almost 90% (290 million people) of the USA’s population scattered across 37 states have received orders to remain at home. Indian Authorities Call For Provision of Food, Medical Facilities & Clean Drinking Water to Internal Migrants Trends in India as of 13:04 CET. Confirmed cases increase exponentially. Logarithmic curve shown. As India witnessed a massive internal migration of laborers from cities to their rural homes in response to a nation-wide lockdown, India’s Chief Secretary of State, Preeti Sudan, issued an order on behalf of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, calling on State Governments to provide adequate medical facilities, food, clean drinking water and sanitation for people on the move. The “anxiety and fear of the migrants should be understood by the police and other authorities and they should deal with the migrants in a humane manner,” stated the order, based on directives issued by India’s Supreme Court. She called on “all concerned to appreciate the trepidation of the poor men, women and children and treat them with kindness.” The migration was occurring as South East Asia experienced a 7-fold increase in new cases in just 24 hours (31 March–1 April). Just three of South-East Asia’s 11 countries, including India (2640), Indonesia (1986) and Thailand (1978) account for about 96% of the cases reported in the region so far. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier announced $US 24 billion package to support India’s vulnerable populations during the COVID-19 crisis; the PM-CARES Fund is supposed to include free food rations for 800 million disadvantaged people, cash transfers for 204 million poor women, and free cooking gas for 80 million households. The fund is being financed by various contributions from other government branches, such as the military and the railways authority, as well as by contributions from government employees and celebrities. Africa’s cases have also increased exponentially in the past week, according to a weekly bulletin the WHO African Regional Office. In comparison to two weeks ago, new cases have almost doubled in the past week (185%), with three more countries reporting COVID-19 (Botswana, Burundi, and Sierra Leone). Currently, most member states in the WHO Africa region (42/45) have confirmed cases of COVID-19. The African region has exceeded 7000 cases today, says Africa’s Centre for Disease Control. Total cases of COVID-19 exceed 1 million as of 7:01:32 PM CET, with active case distribution globally. Numbers change rapidly. New Guidance Issued For Preventing COVID-19 In Refugee And Migrant Camps A new strategy called “shielding”, that aims to limit transmission of COVID-19 in migrant and refugee camps, has been proposed by the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine’s Health in Humanitarian Crises Centre. The strategy recommends that people at high-risk from COVID-19 be identified and separated from other camp members in so-called ‘green-zones’ for an extended period of time, so as to reduce their risks of serious illness and possible death. The zones, ideally, would be located as close as possible to primary health care and other essential services, to minimize their need for movement. The guidance notes that the kinds of ‘stay-at-home’ orders and self-isolation tactics that have been widely adopted in developed countries are unworkable in migrant camps and camp-like settings. And at the same time, overcrowding, poor access to safe water, sanitation and limited access to health services could also lead to very high rates of infection among camp residents. In the guidance, high-risk individuals are defined as those over the age of 60, as well as individuals that have low immunity due to genetic conditions or chronic diseases (e.g. HIV) or non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as high blood pressure, lung diseases or cancers. “Green Zones” can be established at the household level, as well as at the neighborhood level, or as part of a broader community approach. “Green Zones” can in fact be established at the household level, for older or weaker family members, as well as at the neighborhood level, or as part of a broader community approach – depending on the characteristics of the migrant camp or settlement, the document suggests. The guidance document suggests that “social care committees” can coordinate the shielding response and facilitate acceptance of and adherence to the shielding measures. Grace Ren, Tsering Llamo, and Zixuan Yang contributed to this story Image Credits: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , COVID-19 India , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. UN Climate Conference Postponed Until 2021 Due To COVID-19; Experts Debate Pandemic’s Impact On Climate Action 02/04/2020 Elaine Ruth Fletcher & Svĕt Lustig Vijay Iceberg melting in Iceland The critical UN Climate Conference of Parties (COP26) that was scheduled to take place in Glasgow, in November, has been postponed until 2021 as a result of the COVID-19 emergency. “The COP26 UN climate change conference set to take place in Glasgow in November has been postponed due to COVID-19,” stated an official message by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to UN member states and observers. “This decision has been taken by the COP Bureau of the UNFCCC, with the UK and its Italian partners. Dates for a rescheduled conference in 2021, hosted in Glasgow by the UK in partnership with Italy, will be set out in due course following further discussion with parties. In light of the ongoing, worldwide effects of COVID-19, holding an ambitious, inclusive COP26 in November 2020 is no longer possible. Rescheduling will ensure all parties can focus on the issues to be discussed at this vital conference and allow more time for the necessary preparations to take place. We will continue to work with all involved to increase climate ambition, build resilience and lower emissions.” Patricia Espinosa, UNFCC Executive Secretary said that the decision had been reached after receiving “a detailed assessment from the representative of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the host of COP 26. Patricia Espinoza, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change. “COVID-19 is the most urgent threat facing humanity today, but we cannot forget that climate change is the biggest threat facing humanity over the long term”. Espinoza added. However, she named no future date for the meeting, saying only: “The Government of the United Kingdom will initiate consultations with Parties and stakeholders to identify a suitable new date for the Conference which will be presented to the Bureau for its endorsement,” said the official message to UN member states and observer organizations. The COP26 meeting has been viewed as particularly critical both in light of the speed at which climate change is occuring, and the huge gap in mitigation commitments to slow its current pace. As the five year mark since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries were due to submit new, more ambitious long-term goals to reduce emissions at COP26. Despite the delay, the head of the European Green Deal initiative of the European Commission, pledged to continue efforts towards dramatic reductions in carbon emissions by 2030. “We will not slow down our work domestically or internationally to prepare for an ambitious COP26, when it takes place”, said Frans Timmermans, executive vice-president for the European Green Deal in a statement. The European Commission’s plans are “on track” to present by September 2020 a detailed plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50-55% compared to 1990 levels, in line with EU’s 2030 ambitions, he added. “At home, we have put in place the key EU laws to meet our existing 2030 climate and energy targets. In the long-term, we have committed to climate neutrality by 2050 and proposed a climate law that will make this objective legally binding. The legislative work on this proposal has started, even in these challenging circumstances. “An impact assessed plan to raise the EU’s 2030 ambitions and cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50-55% compared to 1990 levels is on track, and the Commission will stick to that. The same goes for the work necessary to submit an enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC in line with our commitment under the Paris Agreement,” he said. Countries are “not off the hook and will be held accountable” to display greater climate ambition when the COP26 finally does convene, said Tassnem Essop, Executive Director of Climate Action Network International, a worldwide network of some 1300 NGOs in over 120 countries. “The postponement of the COP does not mean a postponement in climate ambition”, he said. Experts Debate Long-Term Impacts of Pandemic on Political Will For Climate Action Rooftop assembly of solar panels in New York City has given way to makeshift construction of COVID-19 hospital tents. Some observers of the COVID-19 emergency, including billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates, have recently asserted that the crisis can be a catalyst for more coherent action on other global challenges because it is facilitating innovation, and more direct, daily collaboration amongst scientists and between scientists and policymakers. “Until we get out of this crisis, COVID will dominate, and so some of the climate stuff, although it will still go on, it won’t get that same focus,” Gates said in a recent Ted Talk, but he added that, “As we get past this, yes, that idea of innovation and science and the world working together, that is totally common between these two problems. And so I don’t think this has to be a huge setback for climate.” Observed Espinosa in her statement on the COP-26 postponement. “This is an opportunity for nations to green their recovery packages, an opportunity to include the most vulnerable in those plans, and an opportunity to shape the 21st century economy in ways that are clean, green, health, just, safe and more resilient. In the meantime, we continue to urge nations to significantly boost climate ambition in line with the Paris Agreement.” Leading scientists and environmentalist have also pointed out that the illegal hunting and consumption of endangered wild animal species, such as the pangolin, were in fact drivers that contributed to the leap of the coronavirus from bats to other animals in China’s wild animal markets, and then to humans. Logically then, ecosystem stability should be considered more seriously by policymakers in the wake of COVID-19. “Nature is sending us a message,” Inger Andersen, head of the United Nations Environment Programme said in a recent interview, noting that some 75% of new infectious diseases originate from animals. Longstanding environmental campaigns to halt illegal wildlife trade and the destruction of habitats are all the more improtant now, so as to prevent future outbreaks like Covid-19. Still, the pandemic is also a bitter reminder of the barriers to coherent global action, as well as the fact that the public as well as most politicians tend to avoid dealing with long-term and unseen environmental health threats – at least until the moment when people are literally, dropping dead in hospital corridors. Writing in Foreign Policy, one senior official to former US President Barack Obama said that the extreme measures governments are taking on COVIVD-19 may have given hope to “climate activists that similarly ambitious policies might be possible to address global warming, which many consider a similar existential threat. “Yet that would be the wrong lesson to draw, as the very same barriers preventing an effective COVID-19 response continue to keep climate change action out of reach,” “said Jason Bordoff, a former U.S. National Security Council senior director in the Obama White House. “Cities across the world are shutting down businesses and events, at great cost. Yet the effectiveness of any one government’s action is limited if there are weak links in the global effort to curb the pandemic—such as from states with conflict or poor governance—even if the world is in agreement that eradicating a pandemic is in every country’s best interest,” he said. “Climate change is even harder to solve because it results from the sum of all greenhouse gas emissions and thus requires aggregate effort, a problem particularly vulnerable to free-riding,” added Bordoff, now a professor and founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. “The pandemic is a reminder of just how wicked a problem climate change is because it requires collective action, public understanding and buy-in, and decarbonizing the energy mix while supporting economic growth and energy use around the world,” said Bordoff. Cleaner Skies Now – Dirtier Ones Later Of course, COVID-19 may deliver some short-term climate benefits by “curbing energy use, or even longer-term benefits if economic stimulus is linked to climate goals — or if people get used to telecommuting and thus use less oil in the future,” Bordoff acknowleged. “Yet any climate benefits from the COVID-19 crisis are likely to be fleeting and negligible.” Historically, building political will around environmental goals is usually more difficult during periods of economic downturn, he added. “Historically, there is an inverse relationship in the United States and Europe between public concern about the environment and worries about economic conditions. Similarly, concern about economic growth has often caused China to ratchet back its environmental ambitions. Just last week, China was reportedly considering relaxing emissions standards to help struggling automakers,” he noted. A similar pattern is also emerging, in the United States. On Monday, the US Environmental Protection Agency announced that it would relax vehicle fuel economy standards for vehicles for model year 2021, as well as for model years 2022-2026, which had been approved under the Obama administration. The rules, which would lead to the release of 900 million more tons of CO2 every year, are being opposed by the State of Califorinia, but the Trump administration is also trying to strip states of the authority to enact stricter vehicle emissions rules. And last Thursday, the US Environmental Protection said that it would suspend enforcement of a wide range of environmental regulations regarding, air, water, wastewater and even hazardous waste emissions – until the COVID-19 crisis is over, noting that companies violating emissions rules might be excused from their violations if they were somehow associated to COVID-19. “During this extraordinary time, EPA believes that it is more important for facilities to ensure that their pollution control equipment remains up and running and the facilities are operating safely, than to carry out routine sampling and reporting” said EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler in a statement. “The Trump administration is cynically abusing this crisis to achieve its pre-COVID-19 goal of gutting US environmental regulations. The decision to indefinitely suspend the protections afforded by environmental laws will kill or compromise the health of large numbers of people”, warned Richard Pearshouse, Amnesty International’s head of Crisis and Environment, in a statement. -Tsering Llhamo and Zixuan Yang contributed to this story. Image Credits: Andrew Bowden, Patricia Espinosa C., Renovus Solar. COVID-19 Is World’s Biggest Challenge Since World War II, Says UN Secretary General 01/04/2020 Gauri Saxena & Grace Ren and Elaine Ruth Fletcher Temporary COVID-19 treatment unit being set up in Central Park, New York City The COVID-19 pandemic is the biggest challenge the world has faced since the Second World War, said United Nations’ Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. He spoke during the launch of a report on the potential socioeconomic impact of the outbreak, Shared Responsibility, Global Solidarity. Speaking from the UN Headquarters in New York on Tuesday, Guterres said that “the new coronavirus disease is attacking societies at their core, claiming lives and people’s livelihoods.” The economic fallout of the outbreak could trigger a recession of unprecedented scale, as up to 25 million jobs could be lost globally as well as a 40% reduction in global foreign direct investment flows. In his statement, Guterres also called upon the G-20 to move ahead with a special Africa initiative, discussed at the extraordinary G20 Summit last week. And he called upon developed countries more generally to bolster health systems and response capacity in lower income nations, saying that, “Otherwise we face the nightmare of the disease spreading like wildfire in the global South with millions of deaths and the prospect of the disease re-emerging where it was previously suppressed. “Millions and millions” could die in Africa without intervention, he later told France 24. Just a day later on Wednesday, the African Development Bank group approved a $2 million emergency grant for countries of the WHO African Region boost surveillance systems, procure and distribute laboratory test kits and reagents, and support coordination mechanisms at national and regional levels. The regional office of WHO Africa reported 3762 confirmed cases and 92 deaths on Tuesday night; South Africa remained the most heavily affected country with 1353 cases but Algeria had the most deaths at 35. The White House Predicts Over 100,000 Coronavirus Deaths in the US Meanwhile, top United States health authorities said that a “best-case scenario” for the pandemic would see the deaths of nearly 100,000 to 240,000 people in the United States. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, leading experts on President Donald Trump’s COVID-19 Task Force, issued the warnings during a White House press conference Tuesday night, with reference to projections produced by the Seattle-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME). Keeping the curve to the lower end of 100,000 deaths or less, will be contingent on effective enforcement of social distancing and other disease control measures, they stressed. Speaking at the press conference, President Trump warned Americans to brace themselves for a “very, very painful two weeks”, as he announced more severe nationwide measures to be implemented to curb the coronavirus. But he also pointed out that in the absence of such measures, the United States could face as many as 12.2 million deaths, according to projections by Imperial College London cited by Birx earlier in the briefing. Officials were quick to point out that the death projections are not static, given that hotspots like New York and New Jersey are pulling the estimates upwards, but in other states, such as California and Washington, authorities have managed to reduce infection transmission. The state of New York has emerged as the epicentre of the pandemic in the United States, recording over 75,000 confirmed cases and over 1,500 deaths, Governor Andrew Cuomo has said that the outbreak is not expected to peak for another three weeks. “I’m tired of being behind this virus. We’ve been behind this virus from day one. We underestimated this virus. It’s more powerful, it’s more dangerous than we expected,” he said in a press briefing earlier in the day. The United States currently has a total of almost 190,000 confirmed cases with over 4,000 deaths. A preliminary report by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated that 78% of coronavirus patients admitted in intensive care as well as 94% of those who died in the US had at least one underlying chronic condition. People with diabetes, lung disease and heart disease appear to be at higher risk of severe illness, CDC found, which is consistent with findings from Italy and China. As a vivid symbol of the expanding emergency, Mount Sinai Hospital system in New York City was set to open a field hospital in Central Park, in collaboration with Samaritan’s Purse. The tent hospital units, delivered from North Carolina, will provide overflow capacity for Mount Sinai’s COVID-19 patients, with 68 more beds. Italy Extends Lockdown Measures — Even As Infection Curve Plateaus Italy’s civil protection authority has reported that the number of reported coronavirus infections is rising at a slower rate — the country has recorded daily increases around 4-5% in the past 4 days, which is 3-4 times less than the rates recorded two weeks ago. Silvio Brusaferro, the president of Italy’s Higher Health Institute (ISS) told The Guardian “That doesn’t mean we’ve hit the peak and that it’s over, but that we must start the descent … by applying the measures in force”. In an effort to halt the continued rise in cases, lockdown measures currently in place have been extended till April 13; Italy now has over 105,000 cases, and has reported over 12,000 deaths, one of the highest national death rates from the virus. Over 15,000 people have also recovered. Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza said the new trend was a sign that measures are yielding results, but added it would be “unforgivable to assume this was a definitive defeat” of the virus. Customers queuing in Toulouse, France, as part of social distancing measures taken to reduce crowding in supermarkets during the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate of infection increases in Spain was also stabilizing somewhat following drastic containment measures. María José Sierra of the centre of health emergencies said “generally speaking, we can say that yesterday’s rise in cases, which was around 8%, tells us that we’re carrying on in the stabilisation phase of the pandemic”. The country has seen a dip in daily infection rates from 20% between 15 to 25 March to below 12% since then. However, in neighboring France, new infections rose overnight by 15%. In Switzerland, meanwhile, the Geneva University Hospital (HUG) announced that it was launching a study of serological samples, to be collected from among research volunteers, to examine the extend to which Swiss citizens and residents might be infected with the virus asymptomatically, as well as the degree to which exposure might have conferred immunity. As many as 83,300 cases, and 720 deaths, could be expected in Switzerland by 11 April 2020 researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich predicted in a paper published Wednesday on the preprint server MedRxiv. Switzerland currently has reported 17,139 confirmed cases and 378 deaths, although it is believed that many cases have gone unreported insofar as testing has so far largely been confined to people at high risk and with serious symptoms. For the country of 8.5 million people, this still ranks as one of the highest per-capita disease rates in the world, although deaths have remained comparatively low at about .02% of those confirmed ill. In the absence of social distancing interventions, up to 42.7% of the entire Swiss population would have been infected with COVID-19 by 25 April, the researchers also said. The assessments align with previous studies published on the benefits of “non-pharmaceutical interventions” such as closures and stay-at-home orders on slowing the spread of the virus. Cumulative cases and global distribution. Numbers change rapidly Concerns for Vulnerable Populations Increases As governments take measures to protect their citizens from the rising COVID-19 pandemic, experts were increasingly concerns about potential devastating effects on indigenous peoples, refugees, and others worldwide who lack formal citizenship rights in the countries where they are living. Four UN agencies released a statement Tuesday that called for the protection of those at “heightened risk,” including “refugees, those forcibly displaced, the stateless and migrants.” According to the statement, “many refugees live in overcrowded camps, settlements, makeshift shelters or reception centres, where they lack adequate access to health services, clean water and sanitation.” Up to three-quarters of the world’s 70.8 million forcibly displaced people are hosted in countries where health systems are “already overwhelmed and under-capacitated.” As one example, the 10 cases and 1 death reported so far in war-torn Syria may be a sign of a bigger crisis to come, Mark Lowcock, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator told the Security Council, warned the UN Security Council in a meeting Monday. “That is the tip of the iceberg,” he said in a UN press release, warning that only half of Syria’s hospitals and primary health-care centres were fully functional at the end of 2019. And while the UN has assisted in rehabilitating the Central Public Health Laboratory, pre-positioning medical supplies, and upgrading isolation units around the country; the fragility of the health system and critical supply chains further complicate COVID-19 measures. Cross-border deliveries of aid supplies between Turkey and north-west Syria have more than doubled compared to the same period last year to 2150 trucks per day. Some US $340 million has so far been received by the UN Office of Humanitarian Affairs under a US $500 million funding call. Meanwhile, as confirmed cases soar beyond 12,000 in South America, indigenous tribes in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have taken matters into their own hands in the face of what they call “a historic danger,” as quoted in the Guardian. The Xingu people in Brazil have sealed off roads into their reserve and are urging locals to leave only for emergencies, as the country’s number of confirmed cases topped 5500 and deaths rose to over 200. In Colombia, which has almost 900 confirmed cases so far, tribes have been self-isolating and outlawing visits to their ancestral lands while collaborating with local governments to procure adequate supplies. Isolated tribes living in areas with fragile health systems, are particularly susceptible to acute, highly infectious diseases. Outbreaks of measles, smallpox and flu viruses had a long track record of “decimating” indigenous communities. Some countries are taking more widespread social welfare measures for vulnerable populations. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a US$24 billion welfare package to provide free food rations for 800 million disadvantaged people, cash transfers to 204 million poor women, and free cooking gas for 80 million households for the next 3 months. Health Experts Revisit Benefits of Wearing Masks in Public As the intensity of coronavirus infections rises in many parts of the world, health experts are beginning to reconsider whether the general public should wear face masks after all. Until now, the World Health Organization as well as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have recommended the use of face coverings only for the sick or for health workers treating those who might be ill. However, CDC director Robert Redfield said that this recommendation is currently under review. The US CDC recommendation under consideration would specifically recommend fabric masks, or do-it-yourself type masks for the general public, reports the Washington Post. Medical grade masks such as surgical masks or N95 respirators – which are in desperately short supply around the world – would still be restricted to use by healthcare workers. At his press briefing on Tuesday, even President Trump has encouraged the public to cover their faces with scarves when they go out, so that masks may be reserved for healthcare workers. “I can tell you that the data and this issue of whether it’s going to contribute [to prevention] is being aggressively reviewed as we speak,” Redfield told NPR in an interview. Many prominent healthcare experts have weighed in on the issue, including former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb. In a paper he published with American Enterprise Institute, a conservative US policy think tank, Gottlieb recommended supplementing social distancing measures with the widespread use of facemasks, citing the large numbers of asymptomatic cases that go undetected. “Face masks will be most effective at slowing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 if they are widely used, because they may help prevent people who are asymptomatically infected from transmitting the disease unknowingly”, says Gottlieb, citing South Korea and Hong Kong as places where facemasks were widely used, and managed to successfully control the outbreaks. Similarly, other individual experts have advocated for the use of facemasks as a socially responsible insurance policy. And countries are beginning to act as well. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday issued a new order that anyone leaving their homes should wear a mask “or other face covering”, making it the first country outside China to adopt mandatory mask usage while out in public. Hungary this week also ordered people visiting supermarkets to wear facemasks in order to risk infection spread in venues that often remain crowded with customers. Street scene in France. Universal masking being reconsidered. Tobacco Industry Joins the COVID-19 Vaccine Race British American Tobacco (BAT), the world’s second largest cigarette maker, announced that it would launch an effort to develop a COVID-19 vaccine using tobacco plants, joining a global effort that has generated over 90 potential vaccine candidates so far. Using plant-based production, the company claimed in a press release that between 1-3 million doses of vaccine could be manufactured per week by June. The process works by first identifying and cloning an antigen – an immune-response generating portion of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 – into a tobacco plant. The antigen can then be purified from grown and harvested tobacco plants in as little as 6 weeks. The tobacco plant production method was used by BAT’s US bio-tech subsidiary, Kentucky BioProcessing (KBP), to successfully manufacture the Ebola treatment ZMapp in 2014. “KBP has been exploring alternative uses of the tobacco plant for some time. One such alternative use is the development of plant-based vaccines,” said David O’Reilly, director of Scientific Research at BAT. “We are committed to contributing to the global effort to halt the spread of COVID-19 using this technology.” However, the SARS-CoV-2 antigen that would supposedly be purified and used for the production, is still being evaluated in preclinical tests. Image Credits: Samaritan's Purse, Wikimedia Commons: Alteo31300. Strong Age-Linked COVID-19 Death Risk Confirmed By Largest-Ever Study Of Chinese Population Infected 31/03/2020 Grace Ren, Svĕt Lustig Vijay & Elaine Ruth Fletcher A new study examining data from nearly 90% of mainland China’s confirmed COVID-19 cases found that the death rate among people older than 80 was 13.4%, as compared to only .32% for people under the age of 60. Almost one in five patients over the age of 80 were likely to require hospitalisation, as compared with around 1% of people under 30, according to an analysis of a subset of 3,665 cases. The analysis, published Tuesday in the Lancet Journal of Infectious Diseases is the first large-scale study to account for long-presumed underestimation of mild or asymptomatic cases in death rate and hospitalization rate estimates. It is also the first to include data on infections among Wuhan expats who were airlifted out of the city at the outset of the lockdown, as well as cases linked to the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While the crude case fatality rate was 3.67%, the authors estimated that the true average death rate, including milder, under-reported cases, was around 1.38%. Based on an analysis of cases among Wuhan expats, the authors also proposed that accounting for all COVID-19 infections could yield an even lower infection-fatality rate of about .66%. The Lancet study examined a total of 70,117 laboratory-confirmed and clinically-diagnosed cases in mainland China, or about 80% of cases reported there so far, as well as 689 positive cases among people evacuated from Wuhan on repatriation flights and cases identified on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While still considerably higher than the death rates for seasonal flu (.01%), the 1.38% average case fatality ratio is significantly lower than the crude case fatality ratios cited by most sources until now, including the World Health Organization. However, the authors’ assumptions about the widespread circulation of asymptomatic infections also contradicts another large-scale study that examined that issue. The report of some 320,000 Chinese in Guangdong Province, found that only .14% of people tested in fever clinic screenings were infected with the virus. It is therefore likely that the true rate of mild and asymptomatic infections will continue to be debated until more large-scale serological studies are undertaken. “Our estimates can be applied to any country to inform decisions around the best containment policies for COVID-19,” says Azra Ghani, an author on the paper and professor at the Imperial College London, UK, in a press release. “There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention, but our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalisation is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal.” However, the authors caution that up to 50% to 80% of the global population could be infected with COVID-19 in the absence of any interventions, meaning that the number of people needing hospital treatment is likely to overwhelm even the most advanced healthcare systems worldwide. According to The Lancet study, after adjusting for underreporting of mild cases, older adults faced the highest risk of requiring hospitalization from the infection at 18.4%, compared to an estimated hospitalization rate of 3.4% in people in their 30s, and 1% for people in their 20s. The Lancet study, however, still contrasts sharply with hospitalization and mortality data from confirmed cases in some hotspots such as Italy and the United States. In Italy, WHO officials reported that up to 50% of those hospitalized for COVID-19 are under the age of 50. A report released by the US Centers for Disease Control earlier this month found that 38% of hospitalized cases in the country were under the age of 55. Case fatality and hospitalization rates can “vary slightly from country to country because of differences in prevention, control, and mitigation policies implemented,” said Shigui Ruan, an infectious disease modeling researcher at the University of Miami in a separate Lancet Comment on the study. Thus, each country’s hospitalization and death rates are ” substantially affected by the preparedness and availability of health care,” he added. A separate study published Monday by Imperial College, London estimated that across 11 European countries “Non-pharmaceutical interventions” such as case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, widescale social distancing and national lockdowns helped avert up to 59,000 deaths by COVID-19. Between 7-43 million individuals had been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 as of 28 March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population, the study concluded. The attack rate – or rate of new infections – caused by the virus is estimated to be highest in Italy and Spain, and lowest in Germany and Norway. BARDA Branch Of US Health Agency Takes Over Clinical Trials for 2 Vaccine Candidates Meanwhile, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) branch of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said that it would take over late-stage development of the first COVID-19 vaccine candidate to enter Phase I clinical trials, mRNA-1273. The federal agency will also step in to support early development of another potential vaccine with an eye to rolling it out for emergency use in the US by early 2021. Originally created through a collaboration between Moderna, Inc and the US National Institute of Allergies and Infections Diseases (NIAID), the company will now shift to collaborating with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), to move mRNA-1273 through Phase II and Phase III clinical trials. 3D print of a spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus In a parallel development, BARDA will collaborate with the Janssen R&D arm of the US pharma firm, Johnson & Johnson (J&J), to accelerate non-clinical trials and Phase I trials of their investigational vaccine, Ad26 SARS-CoV-2. The Phase 1 clinical trial is set to begin no later than fall of 2020 with the goal of making the COVID-19 vaccine available for emergency use in the United States in early 2021. At the same time, the agency is collaborating with J&J to make plans to produce up to 300 million doses of the vaccine every year for use in the United States. “Delivering a safe and effective vaccine for a rapidly spreading disease like COVID-19 requires accelerated action with parallel development streams,” said the BARDA Director Rick Bright in a press release. BARDA, as part of the HHS, can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials. Setting up processes now to run late-phase clinical trials and scale-up manufacturing rather than taking the more traditional sequential approach to vaccine development could “shave months off the timeline for vaccine development,” the agency claims. BARDA can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials – although it remains to be seen whether the patent rights associated with any successfully developed vaccines will be held by the US government or private companies. Depending on the terms and type of contract signed, HHS can do “pretty much anything,” James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International (KEI) said in an interview with Health Policy Watch. As one example, HHS could use federal funds to “buy-out” patents to contribute to a global “pool” of intellectual property rights, according to one KEI blog. “HHS/BARDA should explain what the contractual terms for data and patent rights were,” added Love. Experts Say COVID-19 Casts Risks From Climate Change & Environmental Degradation in Sharp Relief Meanwhile, looking towards the future, a WHO COVID-19 Special Envoy and the leader of the UN Development Programme’s Health and Development Group, warned that the world needs to meet critical climate and sustainable development goals in order to prevent the recurrence of further COVID-19 pandemics. “Most outbreaks are zoonotic,” noted Mandeep Dhaliwal – Director of UNDP’s HIV, Health and Development Group, speaking at a webinar on Tuesday organized by the global group, Health Care Without Harm. “We talk a lot about health system preparedness, readiness, response. But missing from that conversation are the environmental factors that result from human activity that cause those outbreaks. These are not addressed so we keep lurching from one outbreak to another.” The coronavirus, which scientists believe originated in bats, was likely transmitted to humans by wild animals, possibly a pangolin, a species that is hunted illegally and sold in live animal markets throughout Asia. Similarly, viruses circulating among gorillas and chimpanzees in Africa, hunted and sold as bushmeat, are believed to have sparked the 2014-16 West African Ebola outbreak as well as the HIV/AIDS epidemic. “The pace of zoonotic outbreaks is going to increase, and is going to be magnified in the ways that you saw with COVID-19,” Dhaliwal predicted, until stronger linkages were made to prevent the patterns of ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, which intensify human contact with wild animals, leading to higher risks of zoonotic infections. Conversely, she noted that environmental health risks such as air pollution “also make people more vulnerable to COVID-19,” as do climate-related health risks such as climate-induced food and nutrition insecurity. “COVID 19 changes everything from the way we work as a global community,” she said. “We will not be able to ignore this anymore – we need to do something about the human activity that is driving this [zoonotic infections], and those actions will have to come from outside the health sector. We need integrated solutions to address the climate crisis and zoonotic outbreaks.” Said David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on COVID-19. “This is an issue that requires all of the approaches that we developed in the sustainable development agenda, interconnectedness, working across all parts of society. The principles of the sustainable development have to be at the center of what we are trying to do. But can leaders manage this, while still having their full attention on their people and the awful political trade-offs that they are having to make?” According to Health Care Without Harm, the worldwide pandemic and the climate crisis, are converging health emergencies. “With one, disease spreads like wildfire. And with the other, wildfires and other impacts, spread disease. While at first blush these two crises are not necessarily related to one another, there are a series of coronavirus – climate crisis connections that are worthwhile exploring, as they reveal several common causes, synergistic impacts and shared solutions.” Rate of New COVID-19 Infections Potentially Slowing Down in Europe Europe is still COVID-19’s epicentre, with almost 32 000 new cases since yesterday and over 2 500 new deaths. However, there were nearly 5000 fewer new cases in Europe reported on 30 March compared to 29 March, according to Monday night’s WHO situation report. Europe currently has 392,757 confirmed cases and 23,692 deaths. “Italy and Spain are potentially stabilizing and it is our fervent hope that this is the case. But we have to continue to push the virus down”, said Mike Ryan, executive director of the Health Emergencies Programme, at a WHO press conference yesterday. Donning gloves in the hospital storage room, Lecco, Lombardy. (Photo: Fabio Fadeli) Italy, which has about 13% of the world’s confirmed cases, is experiencing a decrease in new cases, with only 4000 new cases on the 30th of March compared to last week’s average of 5 500 new cases a day. Yesterday, the number of new cases in Spain was 6549 in comparison to 8189 new cases reported on the 29 March. To help respond to the unmet and urgent needs to tackle COVID-19, today, the Spanish government approved the distribution of 300 million euros to Spain’s Autonomous Regions. Israel may also be seeing a slowdown in the increase in cases. Israel which currently has 4831 cases, reported only 448 new cases yesterday compared to the weekend average of 606 new cases a day. Switzerland on Tuesday recorded 16176 cases and 373 total deaths, 701 more than the previous day. Some 78 new deaths were reported, marking the largest daily increase in deaths in the last seven days. Blood tests that are also able to detect asymptomatic cases are being developed and deployed both in Zurich and Geneva. The University Hospital in Zurich plans to test all incoming patients, whether ill or victims of accidents, to further detect new cases. The country is testing roughly 13,600 per million people, putting its per capita testing rate at higher than even South Korea. In the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Iran leads with a total of 40 000 total confirmed cases. In an unexpected move last week, Iran rescinded approval for Médecins Sans Frontieres’ (MSF) COVID-19 intervention in Isfahan. MSF’s charter planes, which were carrying material to build an inflatable 50-bed treatment unit, had already landed in Tehran. In the Americas, cases have steadily increased at about 21 000 new cases per day over the past two days. The USA, which has surpassed any other country in the world, has 164 610 confirmed cases as of today, 40% of which are in New York State. Yesterday, in a statement from New York’ Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Press Office, a new plan was announced to transfer patients between public and private hospitals to balance current demand with local capacity. Africa has confirmed 3486 cases, and has reported about 400 new cases a day. South Africa, which has about 40% of Africa’s cases, has experienced a dramatic reduction in new cases with a weekend average of 70, which is in stark comparison to numbers reported on 27 March, when the country peaked with 243 new cases. However, WHO experts have cautioned that low weekend reporting patterns and limited testing may lead to underestimates of the true case numbers in the continent. According to WHO’s daily situation report, there are 4048 cases in WHO’s Southeast Asia region as of Monday night. By Tuesday night, India, the most populous country in the region, had 1251 confirmed cases with 32 deaths. However, the country has one of the lowest testing rates in the world, at 32 tests per million. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 21-day lockdown, which began last Tuesday, has resulted in a mass exodus of daily wage migrant workers after losing their jobs and the order to return home. At least 22 deaths have been reportedly linked to the mass exodus. In anticipation of an upwards surge in cases, the Ministry of Railways has agreed to modify 20000 coaches into quarantine and isolation wards to supplement the country’s facilities. Total active of COVID-19 as of 7 p.m. CET 31 March. Right column shows confirmed cases. Numbers change rapidly. Gauri Saxena contributed to this story. Image Credits: NIAID, Johns Hopkins CSSE. WHO Nears $675 Million ‘Goal’ For COVID-19 Response – $622 Million Pledged 30/03/2020 Grace Ren & Svĕt Lustig Vijay WHO team of technical experts conclude a COVID-19 support mission to Egypt. The World Health Organization has received more than US $622 million of a US $675 million ask to fund WHO’s first Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan for COVID-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday. “We continue to be encouraged by the signs of global solidarity to confront and overcome this common threat,” said Dr Tedros, speaking at an afternoon press briefing. In a parallel development, Norway is leading an initiative to establish a multi-donor fund for the global COVID-19 response to assist developing countries, coordinating with the United Nations to launch the initiative within the next few days. “A multi-donor fund under UN auspices will provide predictability for our partners and help to make the efforts more effective,” said Minister of Foreign Affairs Ine Eriksen Søreide in a press release. ‘Experience from other crises shows that the earlier you start long-term response planning, the more precise and successful the effort becomes.” Unlike the UN Solidarity Fund, which is soliciting donations from individuals and private donors for the response, this fund will collate resources from major bilateral donors and international agencies, similar to the UN Ebola Response Fund set up in 2014 to address the emergency in West Africa. The fund will provide both immediate emergency aid to developing countries, and aid for longer term development initiatives to prop up weak health systems to prepare for future pandemics. In another meeting Monday with Ministers of Trade from the Group of 20 (G20) richest countries in the world, Dr Tedros also called on G20 countries to significantly their increase production of personal protective equipment (PPE), and ensure its equitable distribution of equipment around the world. “Specific attention should be given to low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America,” said Dr Tedros in a statement. “We call on countries to work with companies to increase production; to ensure the free movement of essential health products; and to ensure equitable distribution of those products, based on need.” However, hoarding and misappropriation of donated PPE equipment also may loom as a thorny problems that donors need to resolve. At the China-Uganda Friendship Referral Hospital near Kampala, one of three Ugandan reference hospitals for COVID-19 cases, health workers taking throat swabs from suspected COVID-19 patients and managing an isolation ward, lack basic protective gear except gloves, Health Policy Watch learned. N-95 masks must be purchased by the doctors and nurses out of pocket, and protective gowns and face shields are unavavilable. Gloves were provided by the hospital after workers threatened to strike, but when supplies run low, patients have to pay for those themselves before they are examined. WHO did not comment on the report. 154 NGOs Submit Open Letter Calling For Gilead To Retract Remdesivir Patent Applications Some 154 NGOs released an open letter Monday calling for Gilead Sciences to rescind its patent applications for remdesivir in 70 countries that could grant the company market exclusivity until 2031 on the experiemental drug, a promising potential COVID-19 treatment. The campaign, coordinated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), aligns closely with a growing movement within the medicines access community to push for mandatory “pooled” rights for COVID-19 technologies. In an unusual move, Gilead already asked the US FDA to rescind special “orphan drug” status for remdesivir last week after facing an intense public backlash, just days after recieving the designation. Orphan drug status would have granted Gilead an addition 7 years of market exclusivity. However, according to the MSF statement, the company still has pending patent applications for remdesivir in at least 70 other countries. “It is unacceptable for Gilead’s remdesivir to be put under the company’s exclusive control, taking into account that the drug was developed with considerable public funding for both early-stage research and clinical trials; the extraordinary efforts and personal risks that both healthcare workers and patients have faced in using the medicine in clinical trial settings; and the unprecedented disaster all countries are facing for their people, their healthcare systems, and their economies” said Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in a statement today. In the open letter, Gilead was urged to take immediate action in the public interest by declaring that it will drop all exclusive rights on patents, regulatory and trial data, as well as making all data required for development of generic drug versions publically available to enable their production and supply. Finally, Gilead was requested to improve its transparency by disclosing its existing supply and manufacturing capacity. “There is a further step to take, as a voluntary pool may not be sufficient, especially when the crisis intensity cools and public approbation for actions like Gilead’s Orphan designation abates,” said Paul Fehlner, President & CEO of reVision Therapeutics, in an interview with Health Policy Watch. “An entity dedicated to the public interest could obtain consequential legal exclusivities (Orphan drug designation, data and market exclusivity) and prevent opportunistic third parties from getting them”. According to Fehlner, creating a “pool” of rights would take minimum efforts, only requiring a willing coordinator to “aggregate data from ongoing trials worldwide and submit formal applications to health authorities.” “This crisis presents an immediate and urgent opportunity to wield the tools of exclusivity to promote access to medical products that may combat COVID-19,” said Fehlner. COVID-19 Trends As the United States now leads the world in coronavirus cases with 143,055 confirmed cases and 2,513 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins tracking database, President Trump extended the U.S. social distancing guidelines until the end of April, rescinding his earlier predictions that the lockdown would end by mid-April’s Easter holiday. Meanwhile, the UN donated 250,000 protective face masks to the USA from its New York headquarters to help combat the outbreak’s epicenter in New York. As the US is faced with rapidly increasing cases, inefficiencies from failed coronavirus tests, and shortage of ventilators, STATNews reports that the Genomics Institute led by Jennifer Doudna, the pioneer of CRISPR gene editing technology, will start running coronavirus tests in order to increase the turnaround time of testings in the San Francisco Bay Area. Over the weekend, Italy and Spain bolster efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus and flatten the curve. Italy, numbers 97,689 cases and 10,779 deaths, and Spain, numbers 85,195 cases and 7,340 deaths, have overtaken China’s 82,198 cases and 3,308 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins coronavirus tracking database. As infection increases, Italy has decided to extend its national lockdown beyond the April 3rd date while Spain tightens the national lockdown for all citizens, except for the workers in the essential sectors until April 9th. As the rate of infection within countries intensified, European countries began to depart from longstanding WHO guidance against the wearing of masks by the general public. Notably, Austria made masks obligatory for clients in supermarkets mandatory to curb airborne spread of the coronavirus amongst customers. Crowded supermarkets have been identified in a number of countries as nexus points for virus spread. However, until now, universal masking has only been practiced in Asia, while WHO repeatedly said the measure was unecessary elsewhere. The Hungarian Parliament, meanwhile, awarded wide-ranging powers to Prime Minister Viktor Orban for an indefinite period, to fight the pandemic, including curtailing free speech and other democratic rights. South-East and Western Asia In South-East Asia, the coronavirus was increasingly disrupting the lives of those living on the socioeconomic margins. After Prime Minister Modi’s surprise lockdown announcement, India’s daily wage earners struggle under the nationwide lockdown as many are stranded in cities without food, housing, and means of getting back home, particularly vulnerable are the Muslim minority who have been victims of recent riots over amendments to the naional citizenship bill. The challenges faced by the rural Indian migrants in the megacities post-lockdown has initiated one of the largest exodus of people back into the rural areas. Meanwhile, in the Western Pacific Region, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) postpones the Tokyo Summer Olympics to July 23rd, 2021 to August 8th, 2021. Online debates also continued to swirl around the degree of China’s influence on the WHO. On Sunday, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu tweeted a complaint referring a senior WHO official’s response to a question from a Hong Kong journalist, about whether WHO would reconsider Taiwan application for member state status. “Wow, can’t even utter ‘Taiwan’ in the WHO? You should set politics aside in dealing with a pandemic,” Wu wrote. Taiwan has accused WHO of ignoring its early warnings about the appearance of a novel coronavirus in mainland China, as well as brushing aside subsequent criticism that China repressed early news about the virus spread, which delayed a more systematic public health response. Overall, Europe continued to lead with half or more of the now active COVID-19 cases worldwide, followed by the United States. There were some 30,000 active cases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, including heavily hit Iran. South-East Asia was reporting nearly 3,600 active cases, and in WHO’s Africa region, there were more than 3,300 infections reported. In the Western Pacific Region, there were some 18,095 active cases, but only about 3,000 of those were in mainland China. Total cases of COVID-19 as of 8 p.m CET, with active case distribution globally. Numbers change rapidly. -Tsering Lhamo contributed to this report. Image Credits: WHO EMRO. ‘Anticipatory Anxiety’: Africa on Cusp of The COVID-19 Pandemic 30/03/2020 Kerry Cullinan Health workers in full protective gear do a COVID-19 throat swab in a Addis Ababa isolation centre. But in Kampala, Uganda, doctors have no suits and they must to purchae their own masks. CAPETOWN, South Africa – As many African countries opt for lockdowns to combat COVID-19, there is uncertainty over whether this will be enough to prevent the pandemic’s spread, or whether authorities will be able to implement this in overcrowded urban areas – as well as fears for patients with HIV, TB and other conditions that require monthly medication. There is a sense that Africans are on the shore watching the sea drawing back before the tsunami of infections hit, overwhelming the continent’s health facilities and killing thousands of people. In late February, just a handful of African countries had recorded a few COVID-19 cases. Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, with a high volume of air traffic from other affected regions of the world, were hit first. By yesterday (29 March), 4,282 cases of the virus had been recorded in 46 of the 54 African countries, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). WHO’s Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus recently warned the continent to “prepare for the worst”. African countries have been struggling to reconcile measures to arrest the virus, such as travel bans, social distancing and restricting public gatherings, with the need to protect their weak economies. More African Countries Using Lockdown Measures Amid the growing consensus that China’s reversal of its pandemic started from a lockdown, and this is the most effective way to reverse the pandemic, key African countries have opted for drastic measures to contain the virus in the past few days. Rwandans are in a 14-day lockdown which started on 22 March. Kenya has a night-time curfew and restrictions on gatherings. South Africa went into a 21-day total lockdown on Friday. Soweto, South Africa. Poverty and crowded conditions make lockdowns doubly difficult. “Those countries that have acted swiftly and dramatically have been far more effective in controlling the spread of the disease,” said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. “While this measure will have a considerable impact on people’s livelihoods, on the life of our society and on our economy, the human cost of delaying this action would be far, far greater.” The Democratic Republic of Congo implemented a four-day lockdown on Saturday, after the move had been delayed for a few days when the prices of essential goods spiked. Yesterday, Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari announced a 14-day lockdown for Lagos and Ogun state which comes into effect at 11pm Monday, 30 March. Ghanians living in Accra and Kumasi face a two-week lockdown from today. Zimbabweans also face a 21-day lockdown from today, and Lesotho citizens face a 25-day lockdown. Congo-Brazzaville goes into lockdown from tomorrow (Tuesday) and eight towns in Burkina Faso will be shut down from Friday for 14 days. However, implementing the lockdowns has proven challenging. South Africans may only leave their homes to buy basic groceries or medical supplies and there is a ban on the sale of alcohol. The South African National Defence Force has been brought in to support the police. Already, police used rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse shoppers in Johannesburg who were refusing to stand an arm’s length apart. Two Rwandans were reported to have been shot dead over the weekend, although that government subsequently denied that the shootings were related to the lockdown. Observers also fear that the heavy-handed application of lockdown measures, in the African context, will deprive people of access to food and essential services, including essential medical care. One worried Ugandan doctor who contacted Health Policy Watch related the story of an expectant mother living in a village some distance from Kampala, who had called him shortly after the country’s lockdown was announced on Monday, fearing that she was going into labour. “She has poor obstetric history,” he said. “A few days ago, she did an ultrasound scan that revealed a breech presentation. Her expected date of delivery is 3 April. She cannot access medical services since she is in the village, in a distance not walkable to the nearest facility where she can have ceaserian section done (if necessary). “‘I can not afford an ambulance because drivers often need fuel facilitation,’ she lamented. I was left speechless… She is opting to walk to the nearest traditional birth attendant for some magic. I felt this is worth sharing.” COVID-19 simulation exercise at the Kinshasa International Airport, Democratic Republic of Congo. Some Front-Line Health Workers Aren’t Getting PPE Supplies – Despite Massive WHO Shipments Meanwhile, epidemics experts are urging African governments to do whatever they can to protect the continent’s thin line of health workers. They urgently need personal protective equipment (PPE) such as masks, gloves and hand sanitiser. “But other measures are very important such as ventilation, spacing, early triage and separation of potential cases and increased access to water and supplies,” said Amanda McClelland, senior vice-president of PreventEpidemics, part of Vital Strategies’ Resolve to Save Lives programme. Dr Gilles van Cutsem, an infectious disease doctor and epidemiologist with Médicins sans Frontières (MSF), stressed that “there needs to be planning and preparation for screening and triage at health facilities to avoid overcrowding and saturation of hospitals, and ensure that hospitals do not become foci of transmission”. “In Italy and China triage tents were set up outside hospitals to receive and separate patients,” added van Cutsem. Meanwhile, HIV clinician Dr Francois Venter, deputy director of Reproductive Health and HIV Institute Johannesburg, urged those who are “mildly symptomatic” to stay away from health facilities to make sure that there is space for the very sick. Speaking after 14 days in quarantine, Venter said he had “anticipatory anxiety” as he waited for the deluge of patients. “I was almost disappointed that my [COVID-19] test was negative. For the first time in my life, I understand emotionally the relief that some of my gay clients expressed when they finally tested positive for HIV,” said Venter. While the WHO has reportedly sent large consignments of PPE to various African countries, shortages are still being reported all over the continent. There were only 60 N95masks distributed to some 280 health workers at China-Uganda Friendship Hospital near Kampala, a designated treatment facility for Covid-19 patients. Doctors and nurses performing COVID-19 tests have to purchase their own masks, according to one staff member, assigned to the COVID-19 isolation unit. That, despite the fact a WHO African “Readiness” Checklist showed Uganda to be equipped with masks and gloves. WHO Readiness Checklist shows Uganda equipped with PPE. Frontline health workers in Kampala isolation unit say they must buy their own masks. The hospital staff only received gloves after threatening to go on strike – although when gloves run short, patients are also asked to purchase them in order to be examined. When asked by Health Policy Watch about the reports of PPE shortages in Uganda’s COVID-19 units, WHO did not comment. Nor did it provide aggregate totals of PPE supplies that have been shipped to Africa until now. However, in a press briefing Monday, WHO Emergencies Head Mike Ryan said, “”We have already sent large numbers of PPE and diagnostics to the countries. It’s not enough. We are working with World Food Programme, Jack Ma Foundation, and Africa CDC to bring in PPE.” Jack Ma, founder of the Alibaba Group, is making a series of massive donations to regions across the world, including 1.1 million test kits, 6 million masks and 60,000 protective suits for Africa, which were due to begin distribution last week, according to Ethiopia’s Prime Minsiter, Abiy Ahmed Ali. Donations of PPE from by the Jack Ma Foundation land in Addis Ababa last week. McClelland recently returned from Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous African country, and has few illusions about the massive tasks that lie ahead: “There is still much more to do in Ethiopia to test and detect cases. The extent of transmission in this country with 105 million people is not really known.” There are two major challenges: preparing and training health workers – Ethiopia only has 19,000 – and engaging communities to change their personal behaviour to limit the spread. Sobering new data from Imperial College predicts that 250 critical care beds will be needed per 100, 000 people if the non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and restricting gatherings, are not successful in stemming the tide of infections. A recent report from Nigeria estimates that the country may only have around 500 ventilators for a population of over 200-million. Said Ryan, “The issue of ventilators is very important – but from the perspective of supporting patients, oxygen is also something we need to discuss.“Before ventilator support, what truly is lifesaving is the ability to give patients supplemental oxygen. When someone has COVID19 your lungs struggle to put oxygen in your blood. Every country in Africa has oxygen. We need to focus on getting better distribution of lifesaving oxygen. We are working to scale up the distribution of supplies and coordinate in a way that countries can expect a smooth service.” “Micro-Isolation” Tactics Used For Ebola May Help Contain COVID-19 While COVID-19 is a different kind of infection, with effects likely to eclipse the more deadly but less contagious diseases such as Ebola, the continent has learnt important lessons about epidemics from its experiences battling such viruses steadily, including during the 2014-2016 health emergency in West Africa, as well as the more 2018-2020 Ebola epidemic in DRC, now finally on the wane. While trying to contain Ebola, Guinea introduced a form of community quarantine called “micro-cerclage” (micro-encirclement) to limit the movement of people in Ebola-affected areas. Those showing symptoms of Ebola were placed in isolation while those close to them were asked to limit their movements. Limited essential movement – such as attending to crops – was allowed and was often monitored by people’s mobile phones. Amanda McCelelland, Prevent Epidemics Community leaders’ support for the policy was key, as were local response teams who enforced the monitoring. Affected households were also provided with food and basic toiletries. “Microcerclage is one approach that will potentially add real value to addressing COVID-19 but this will depend on the scale of community transmission,” says McClelland, who came face-to-face with Ebola while working in the Emergency Health Unit of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “If clusters can be detected early and isolated then this approach could help communities to not be negatively impacted and to continue to have access to key services and resources including food and water.” But a huge challenge is how to quarantine city dwellers. Over 20 million people live in crowded conditions in Lagos, five million live in Johannesburg and three million in Addis Ababa. “Self-isolation and restriction of population movement on a much larger scale in some cities would stretch the resources to be able to provide food, water and services on a citywide scale,” warned McClelland. Community Engagement Also Key Ebola also has negative lessons. “Without community engagement and trust, the outcomes can be devastating,” warned McClelland. “In the Ebola response, this tragically included violence against first responders. We must do everything we can to avoid this in the response to COVID-19.” In 2019 in the DRC alone, MSF recorded more than 300 attacks on Ebola health workers, during which six people were killed and 70 wounded. Stigmatising foreigners assumed to be infected with COVID-19 is already happening. On 18 March, the US embassy in Ethiopia issued a security alert warning of “a rise in anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19”. “Incidents of harassment and assault directly related to COVID-19 have been reported by other foreigners living within Addis Ababa and other cities throughout the country. Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones, denied transportation services, being spat on, chased on foot, and been accused of being infected with COVID-19,” according to the Embassy. Laboratory capacity has also been improved in many Ebola-affected countries, and Nigeria in particular has made substantial improvements in combating epidemics in the last few years. But Van Cutsem warned that the laboratory capacity of most African countries, aside from South Africa is “extremely poor”. “Countries have to find ways to improve the capacity of their laboratories to process tests, and we need the introduction of rapid tests,” said Van Cutsem. While some African leaders have speculated that the virus may not survive in high temperatures, McClelland simply says: “The short answer is we do not know yet. The science is still not clear. There is some evidence that, in a laboratory , the virus may be affected by warmer temperatures. But we also have transmission occurring in warm climates like Australia, the Middle East and South East Asia. Influenza transmits all year round in much of Africa and can actually be worse in dusty conditions. It is too early to assume Africa is protected due to heat and they must prepare with the same sense of urgency as other countries.” Hopes that the pandemic may be short-lived are not shared by experts who quietly talk about the current conditions continuing for many more months. “Settle down to this. Social isolation might be the new normal for the rest of the year. Look after your mental health, check in with people and be kind,” advises Venter. At the same time, in Africa, where large proportions of the population live below or on the verge of poverty, ensuring people’s basic needs during the COVID-19 emergency, will still remain the most fundamental priority, said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in a brieing Monday. “Some countries have strong social welfare systems, some countries don’t. I’m from Africa as you know, and I know some people have to work every single day to win their daily bread. And governments have to take this into account. If we are closing and limiting movement, what will happen to people who have to work on a daily basis? We don’t mean the effect as an average of GDP loss or general effect on the economy; we have to see what it means to an individual on the street.” – Kerry Cullinan is the health editor for openDemocracy 50.50, and based in South Africa. -Updated 31 March, 2020 Image Credits: Matt-80, © WHO/Otto B., © WHO/Kabambi E., Twitter: @AbiyAhmedAli , Vital Strategies , Courtesy of Kerry Cullinan. COVID-19 Testing Trends – Globally & Regionally 30/03/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 (HPW/Svet Lustig): How countries rank in COVID-19 tests/per million population. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Testing: the crux of effective outbreak responses Testing is an essential component of effective outbreak responses. Without widespread testing, we cannot know whether a disease is spreading nor take measures to appropriately respond to it. “All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded, they should know where the cases are, and that is how they can take decisions,” said Dr Tedros, WHO Director General. Health Policy Watch is tracking testing trends in countries around the world, based on data from FIND’s COVID-19 tracker. We display diagnostic capacity using two measures – cumulative testing by countries and trends showing change We have displayed the data using two measures: cumulative number of tests per million population, for all countries administering tests as of 28 March, and trends in selected countries over the past week. From the cumulative data, we can see how some countries, including Iceland, Bahrain, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland, far outpace other nations in terms of their rate of testing, per million people. We also see how many low and middle income countries across Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia still lack any significant test capacity, even while cases are rising. Importantly, we present testing data per million people to account for large population differences between countries. From the trends data, we can also see how countries such as Australia, Switzerland and the United States, have very rapidly ramped up testing over just the past week, while others, such as France and Great Britain, lag further behind. Testing Trends In Europe Within the past week, European countries such as Switzerland and the Czech Republic have doubled and tripled their testing capacity, respectively. Switzerland, which has one of the highest per-capita rates of infection in the world, has now administered 12,639 tests per million people. Countries like France and the UK, however, have not reported any changes in testing over the past week, with only 1,548 and 1,779 tests per million , respectively, despite increasingly high infection rates. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected countries of WHO’s European Region. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Americas Regions – High Income Australia has sharply increased its testing, with 8,134 tests per million on 28 March, double that of a week ago. While the USA has almost quadrupled its testing capacity in one week, it still has only administered a total of 2,032 tests per million, lagging behind many high-income regions. Trends covered are in selected high income countries of the region. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Western Pacific (WPRO), Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) and Americas (AMRO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. African, South-East Asian and Americas Regions – Low & Middle Income Trends here are for selected low- and middle-income coutnries that are testing significantly. In the African continent, South Africa leads with 539 tests per million. While South Africa’s testing capacity is still low in comparison to the rest of the world, this is still approximately double compared to last week. In Latin America, Chile has increased its testing five-fold for a cumulative total of 1209 tests per million; followed by Costa Rica, which has doubled its testing capacity to 600 tests per million. While testing capacity has almost doubled in India, as well, the country so far carried out only 20 tests per million people. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Americas (AMRO), African AMRO) and South East Asia (SEARO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. European Parliament Members Urge Open Licensing For COVID-19 Products Financed Through EU Grants 27/03/2020 Grace Ren Transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 (red), the virus that causes COVID-19 Some 33 Members of the European Parliament released an open letter Friday urging top leadership in the European Commission (EC) to prohibit exclusive licensing for COVID-19 products developed with European Union (EU) grants, and demanding transparency in the research and development pipeline to ensure affordability commitments are met. In a separate letter signed by 37 NGOs and over 50 experts in health and patent law, public health and medicine, called on the World Health Organization and all Member States to get behind Costa Rica’s initiative to “pool” COVID-19 patent rights for essential drugs, vaccines, and technologies. The letter was posted by Knowledge Ecology International, a global patent watchdog group. Those campaigns come right in the wake of the World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ Twitter endorsement of Costa Rica’s call to create the “pooled rights” initiative. “We cannot allow patients to be refused care because of financial constraints or shortages resulting from manufacturing or supply constraints,” said the Members of the European Parliament in the letter addressed to EC President Ursula Von Der Leyen; EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, and Youth, Mariya Gabriel; and EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner, Stella Kyriakides. Although the European Commission invests more than double of any private sector partner in EU-funded COVID-19 research, most of the calls for proposals so far do not seem to require companies or organizations to commit to affordability and access clauses, the MPs stated in their letter. Thus, it is even more important to enforce public oversight on the R&D process and bar exclusive licensing, they noted. For new products, companies should be required to commit to non-exclusive licensing on any developed health technology as a precondition for receiving EU funding, said the MPs. Granting exclusive licenses on new products could result in subsequent shortages, as only “one or very few companies” would be “allowed to produce an extremely timely medicine that is required in huge quantities worldwide,” the MPs stated. “From this moment forward, we require new medical tools to be immediately available once authorised for use, at an affordable price and in high enough quantities to meet global demand.” Responding to the calls, Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations warned that pooling patent rights would not likely enhance the global battle against the virus. “While voluntary pooling of intellectual property and other assets can be a tool to stimulate R&D and facilitate access under certain conditions, its effects to address the current pandemic will likely be very limited,” warned Cueni in a statement. “Tools already exist for governments to access the medicines they need, and they are already being used in a number of cases. “In addition, there are established organizations in place – such as the Medicines Patent Pool, a UN-backed initiative that uses a voluntary licensing and ‘pooled’ patent model to grant licenses to generics manufacturers – who have the expertise in licensing and managing an established pool of intellectual property assets,” Cueni added. As one such example, AbbVie Pharmaceuticals recently announced that it would offer through the Medicines Patent Pool licenses for its lopinavir/ritonavir drug combination without patent restrictions, after the HIV treatment was identified by the World Health Organization as one of the drug combinations to be tested in a multi-country trial against COVID-19. “Given the gravity and urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biopharmaceutical industry has not wasted any time or spared any effort in using its skills, technology and resources to bring safe and effective treatments, vaccines and diagnostic to patients around the world as a matter of utmost urgency,” added Cueni, pointing to a list of IFPMA commitments on the emergency. Civil Society Advocates Propose “Phased” Development of COVID-19 Patent Pool However, the proposed pool of patent rights for COVID-19 technologies would, in fact, build on the successes of the Medicines Patent Pool in expanding affordable access to medicines for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and hepatitis C, said Brook Baker, senior policy analyst at the Global Access Project, and a signatory on the KEI letter. “Simply put, no exclusive rights should stand in the way of governments’ and the global community’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Baker wrote in an opinion to Health Policy Watch on Costa Rica’s call to pool rights to drug development. To build agreement around the roll-out of a COVID-19 patent pool, the KEI letter also proposes a phased approach. An initial “phase-one” agreement would establish the minimum legal basis to permit such licensing in the future, and create a process for working out the details. Hammering out which technologies to share, the terms of authorization, and possible remuneration for the pooled licenses could be done at a later date, the KEI signatories suggest. However, the pool for COVID-19 products should go beyond medicines patents, per se, to address regulatory test data, research data, cell lines, basic science innovations, and other intellectual property, the signatories, including some 37 NGOs and 50 experts. Inputs to such a pool could come from governments that fund research and development or buy innovative products, as well as from universities, research institutes, charities, private companies and individuals who control rights, the letter suggests. In parallel moves, two other large NGOs, Médecins Sans Frontières and the Treatment Action Group released separate public statements Friday calling for national governments to prepare to override patent protections as well as to take other measures, such as enacting price controls, to ensure availability of COVID-19 medicines, vaccines, and other medical tools. TAG threw its weight behind the MSF call, earlier in the week, for a US $5 price tag on a rapid COVID-19 test that can be used on the GeneXpert TB platform, which has thousands of diagnostics instruments in Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia. “We know too well from our work around the world what it means to not be able to treat people in our care because a needed drug is just too expensive or simply not available,” said Dr Márcio da Fonseca, Infectious Disease Advisor at MSF’s Access Campaign in the statement. South Africa, one of the first middle-income countries to embrace the Cepheid COVID-19 test, announced that it will begin using the new GeneXpert COVID-19 tests to leverage the large network of over 180 machines in the country to ramp up rapid testing, as total confirmed cases in the country crossed the 1000 cases threshold. The first test cartridges will be available for use in April. Ad for generic lopinavir/ritonavir HIV drug combination, originally marketed as Kaletra by AbbVie, which relinquished its patent rights to the COVID-19 campaign First Patient in WHO’s COVID-19 SOLIDARITY Trial Enrolled in Norway At the University of Oslo Hospital in Norway, the first patient was enrolled Friday in WHO’s massive multi-country SOLIDARITY trial to collect data on potential COVID-19 treatments. This followed on an announcement by Prime Minister Erna Solberg of a 2.2 billion NOK (US$ 211) additional investment into the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) COVID-19 vaccine development efforts. That was in addition to a 1.6 billion NOK (US$ 153.6 million) investment in the Oslo-based CEPI vaccine efforts. “We are in a global quest for knowledge unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Noweigian Minister of Health Bent Høie in a press briefing. “We can save lives, protect healthcare professionals and all others from getting the disease.” The Norwegian SOLIDARITY trial patient will be the first to take part in this WHO-organized global effort to test four potential COVID-19 treatments under a simplified protocol, so that even low-resourced healthcare facilities could participate. The drugs to be tested include Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir; the lopinavir/ritonavir originally developed by AbbVie Inc. for HIV/AIDs along with beta interferon; as well as the anti-malarials chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. Another arm of the trial is also starting on Friday in Spain. The SOLIDARITY Trial began as global case counts surpassed half a million, and total deaths surged over 26,000. “These are tragic numbers,” said Dr Tedros. Some countries are already administering the medications ad-hoc on a compassionate use basis, as well as stockpiling for future mass use. But WHO’s Dr Tedros has cautioned against widespread use of such treatments without strong evidence – following media reports of people self-medicating with the substances or ones similarly named. One man in the United States, for instance, died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used in aquarium cleaning, following US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, according to the Associated Press. “We call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19,” said Dr Tedros. “The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn’t work in humans or were actually harmful.” In one example, he said that “during the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial. “We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.” Contrary to WHO’s cautious approach, a prominent bioethicist suggested a radical approach to fast-tracking vaccine development – purposefully infecting young healthy volunteers with the virus and seeing whether the vaccine protects against infection. In a preprint paper, Director of the Center for Population–Level Bioethics (CPLB) at Rutgers University Nir Eyal suggested that despite placing participants at risk of “severe disease and death”, such a ‘human challenge’ study design could “subtract many months” from the vaccine licensure process, reducing the global burden of coronavirus morbidity and mortality. COVID-19 cases worldwide as of Friday evening. Numbers change rapidly. Image Credits: NIAID. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts This site uses cookies to help give you the best experience on our website. Cookies enable us to collect information that helps us personalise your experience and improve the functionality and performance of our site. 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UN Climate Conference Postponed Until 2021 Due To COVID-19; Experts Debate Pandemic’s Impact On Climate Action 02/04/2020 Elaine Ruth Fletcher & Svĕt Lustig Vijay Iceberg melting in Iceland The critical UN Climate Conference of Parties (COP26) that was scheduled to take place in Glasgow, in November, has been postponed until 2021 as a result of the COVID-19 emergency. “The COP26 UN climate change conference set to take place in Glasgow in November has been postponed due to COVID-19,” stated an official message by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to UN member states and observers. “This decision has been taken by the COP Bureau of the UNFCCC, with the UK and its Italian partners. Dates for a rescheduled conference in 2021, hosted in Glasgow by the UK in partnership with Italy, will be set out in due course following further discussion with parties. In light of the ongoing, worldwide effects of COVID-19, holding an ambitious, inclusive COP26 in November 2020 is no longer possible. Rescheduling will ensure all parties can focus on the issues to be discussed at this vital conference and allow more time for the necessary preparations to take place. We will continue to work with all involved to increase climate ambition, build resilience and lower emissions.” Patricia Espinosa, UNFCC Executive Secretary said that the decision had been reached after receiving “a detailed assessment from the representative of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the host of COP 26. Patricia Espinoza, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change. “COVID-19 is the most urgent threat facing humanity today, but we cannot forget that climate change is the biggest threat facing humanity over the long term”. Espinoza added. However, she named no future date for the meeting, saying only: “The Government of the United Kingdom will initiate consultations with Parties and stakeholders to identify a suitable new date for the Conference which will be presented to the Bureau for its endorsement,” said the official message to UN member states and observer organizations. The COP26 meeting has been viewed as particularly critical both in light of the speed at which climate change is occuring, and the huge gap in mitigation commitments to slow its current pace. As the five year mark since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries were due to submit new, more ambitious long-term goals to reduce emissions at COP26. Despite the delay, the head of the European Green Deal initiative of the European Commission, pledged to continue efforts towards dramatic reductions in carbon emissions by 2030. “We will not slow down our work domestically or internationally to prepare for an ambitious COP26, when it takes place”, said Frans Timmermans, executive vice-president for the European Green Deal in a statement. The European Commission’s plans are “on track” to present by September 2020 a detailed plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50-55% compared to 1990 levels, in line with EU’s 2030 ambitions, he added. “At home, we have put in place the key EU laws to meet our existing 2030 climate and energy targets. In the long-term, we have committed to climate neutrality by 2050 and proposed a climate law that will make this objective legally binding. The legislative work on this proposal has started, even in these challenging circumstances. “An impact assessed plan to raise the EU’s 2030 ambitions and cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50-55% compared to 1990 levels is on track, and the Commission will stick to that. The same goes for the work necessary to submit an enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC in line with our commitment under the Paris Agreement,” he said. Countries are “not off the hook and will be held accountable” to display greater climate ambition when the COP26 finally does convene, said Tassnem Essop, Executive Director of Climate Action Network International, a worldwide network of some 1300 NGOs in over 120 countries. “The postponement of the COP does not mean a postponement in climate ambition”, he said. Experts Debate Long-Term Impacts of Pandemic on Political Will For Climate Action Rooftop assembly of solar panels in New York City has given way to makeshift construction of COVID-19 hospital tents. Some observers of the COVID-19 emergency, including billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates, have recently asserted that the crisis can be a catalyst for more coherent action on other global challenges because it is facilitating innovation, and more direct, daily collaboration amongst scientists and between scientists and policymakers. “Until we get out of this crisis, COVID will dominate, and so some of the climate stuff, although it will still go on, it won’t get that same focus,” Gates said in a recent Ted Talk, but he added that, “As we get past this, yes, that idea of innovation and science and the world working together, that is totally common between these two problems. And so I don’t think this has to be a huge setback for climate.” Observed Espinosa in her statement on the COP-26 postponement. “This is an opportunity for nations to green their recovery packages, an opportunity to include the most vulnerable in those plans, and an opportunity to shape the 21st century economy in ways that are clean, green, health, just, safe and more resilient. In the meantime, we continue to urge nations to significantly boost climate ambition in line with the Paris Agreement.” Leading scientists and environmentalist have also pointed out that the illegal hunting and consumption of endangered wild animal species, such as the pangolin, were in fact drivers that contributed to the leap of the coronavirus from bats to other animals in China’s wild animal markets, and then to humans. Logically then, ecosystem stability should be considered more seriously by policymakers in the wake of COVID-19. “Nature is sending us a message,” Inger Andersen, head of the United Nations Environment Programme said in a recent interview, noting that some 75% of new infectious diseases originate from animals. Longstanding environmental campaigns to halt illegal wildlife trade and the destruction of habitats are all the more improtant now, so as to prevent future outbreaks like Covid-19. Still, the pandemic is also a bitter reminder of the barriers to coherent global action, as well as the fact that the public as well as most politicians tend to avoid dealing with long-term and unseen environmental health threats – at least until the moment when people are literally, dropping dead in hospital corridors. Writing in Foreign Policy, one senior official to former US President Barack Obama said that the extreme measures governments are taking on COVIVD-19 may have given hope to “climate activists that similarly ambitious policies might be possible to address global warming, which many consider a similar existential threat. “Yet that would be the wrong lesson to draw, as the very same barriers preventing an effective COVID-19 response continue to keep climate change action out of reach,” “said Jason Bordoff, a former U.S. National Security Council senior director in the Obama White House. “Cities across the world are shutting down businesses and events, at great cost. Yet the effectiveness of any one government’s action is limited if there are weak links in the global effort to curb the pandemic—such as from states with conflict or poor governance—even if the world is in agreement that eradicating a pandemic is in every country’s best interest,” he said. “Climate change is even harder to solve because it results from the sum of all greenhouse gas emissions and thus requires aggregate effort, a problem particularly vulnerable to free-riding,” added Bordoff, now a professor and founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. “The pandemic is a reminder of just how wicked a problem climate change is because it requires collective action, public understanding and buy-in, and decarbonizing the energy mix while supporting economic growth and energy use around the world,” said Bordoff. Cleaner Skies Now – Dirtier Ones Later Of course, COVID-19 may deliver some short-term climate benefits by “curbing energy use, or even longer-term benefits if economic stimulus is linked to climate goals — or if people get used to telecommuting and thus use less oil in the future,” Bordoff acknowleged. “Yet any climate benefits from the COVID-19 crisis are likely to be fleeting and negligible.” Historically, building political will around environmental goals is usually more difficult during periods of economic downturn, he added. “Historically, there is an inverse relationship in the United States and Europe between public concern about the environment and worries about economic conditions. Similarly, concern about economic growth has often caused China to ratchet back its environmental ambitions. Just last week, China was reportedly considering relaxing emissions standards to help struggling automakers,” he noted. A similar pattern is also emerging, in the United States. On Monday, the US Environmental Protection Agency announced that it would relax vehicle fuel economy standards for vehicles for model year 2021, as well as for model years 2022-2026, which had been approved under the Obama administration. The rules, which would lead to the release of 900 million more tons of CO2 every year, are being opposed by the State of Califorinia, but the Trump administration is also trying to strip states of the authority to enact stricter vehicle emissions rules. And last Thursday, the US Environmental Protection said that it would suspend enforcement of a wide range of environmental regulations regarding, air, water, wastewater and even hazardous waste emissions – until the COVID-19 crisis is over, noting that companies violating emissions rules might be excused from their violations if they were somehow associated to COVID-19. “During this extraordinary time, EPA believes that it is more important for facilities to ensure that their pollution control equipment remains up and running and the facilities are operating safely, than to carry out routine sampling and reporting” said EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler in a statement. “The Trump administration is cynically abusing this crisis to achieve its pre-COVID-19 goal of gutting US environmental regulations. The decision to indefinitely suspend the protections afforded by environmental laws will kill or compromise the health of large numbers of people”, warned Richard Pearshouse, Amnesty International’s head of Crisis and Environment, in a statement. -Tsering Llhamo and Zixuan Yang contributed to this story. Image Credits: Andrew Bowden, Patricia Espinosa C., Renovus Solar. COVID-19 Is World’s Biggest Challenge Since World War II, Says UN Secretary General 01/04/2020 Gauri Saxena & Grace Ren and Elaine Ruth Fletcher Temporary COVID-19 treatment unit being set up in Central Park, New York City The COVID-19 pandemic is the biggest challenge the world has faced since the Second World War, said United Nations’ Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. He spoke during the launch of a report on the potential socioeconomic impact of the outbreak, Shared Responsibility, Global Solidarity. Speaking from the UN Headquarters in New York on Tuesday, Guterres said that “the new coronavirus disease is attacking societies at their core, claiming lives and people’s livelihoods.” The economic fallout of the outbreak could trigger a recession of unprecedented scale, as up to 25 million jobs could be lost globally as well as a 40% reduction in global foreign direct investment flows. In his statement, Guterres also called upon the G-20 to move ahead with a special Africa initiative, discussed at the extraordinary G20 Summit last week. And he called upon developed countries more generally to bolster health systems and response capacity in lower income nations, saying that, “Otherwise we face the nightmare of the disease spreading like wildfire in the global South with millions of deaths and the prospect of the disease re-emerging where it was previously suppressed. “Millions and millions” could die in Africa without intervention, he later told France 24. Just a day later on Wednesday, the African Development Bank group approved a $2 million emergency grant for countries of the WHO African Region boost surveillance systems, procure and distribute laboratory test kits and reagents, and support coordination mechanisms at national and regional levels. The regional office of WHO Africa reported 3762 confirmed cases and 92 deaths on Tuesday night; South Africa remained the most heavily affected country with 1353 cases but Algeria had the most deaths at 35. The White House Predicts Over 100,000 Coronavirus Deaths in the US Meanwhile, top United States health authorities said that a “best-case scenario” for the pandemic would see the deaths of nearly 100,000 to 240,000 people in the United States. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, leading experts on President Donald Trump’s COVID-19 Task Force, issued the warnings during a White House press conference Tuesday night, with reference to projections produced by the Seattle-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME). Keeping the curve to the lower end of 100,000 deaths or less, will be contingent on effective enforcement of social distancing and other disease control measures, they stressed. Speaking at the press conference, President Trump warned Americans to brace themselves for a “very, very painful two weeks”, as he announced more severe nationwide measures to be implemented to curb the coronavirus. But he also pointed out that in the absence of such measures, the United States could face as many as 12.2 million deaths, according to projections by Imperial College London cited by Birx earlier in the briefing. Officials were quick to point out that the death projections are not static, given that hotspots like New York and New Jersey are pulling the estimates upwards, but in other states, such as California and Washington, authorities have managed to reduce infection transmission. The state of New York has emerged as the epicentre of the pandemic in the United States, recording over 75,000 confirmed cases and over 1,500 deaths, Governor Andrew Cuomo has said that the outbreak is not expected to peak for another three weeks. “I’m tired of being behind this virus. We’ve been behind this virus from day one. We underestimated this virus. It’s more powerful, it’s more dangerous than we expected,” he said in a press briefing earlier in the day. The United States currently has a total of almost 190,000 confirmed cases with over 4,000 deaths. A preliminary report by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated that 78% of coronavirus patients admitted in intensive care as well as 94% of those who died in the US had at least one underlying chronic condition. People with diabetes, lung disease and heart disease appear to be at higher risk of severe illness, CDC found, which is consistent with findings from Italy and China. As a vivid symbol of the expanding emergency, Mount Sinai Hospital system in New York City was set to open a field hospital in Central Park, in collaboration with Samaritan’s Purse. The tent hospital units, delivered from North Carolina, will provide overflow capacity for Mount Sinai’s COVID-19 patients, with 68 more beds. Italy Extends Lockdown Measures — Even As Infection Curve Plateaus Italy’s civil protection authority has reported that the number of reported coronavirus infections is rising at a slower rate — the country has recorded daily increases around 4-5% in the past 4 days, which is 3-4 times less than the rates recorded two weeks ago. Silvio Brusaferro, the president of Italy’s Higher Health Institute (ISS) told The Guardian “That doesn’t mean we’ve hit the peak and that it’s over, but that we must start the descent … by applying the measures in force”. In an effort to halt the continued rise in cases, lockdown measures currently in place have been extended till April 13; Italy now has over 105,000 cases, and has reported over 12,000 deaths, one of the highest national death rates from the virus. Over 15,000 people have also recovered. Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza said the new trend was a sign that measures are yielding results, but added it would be “unforgivable to assume this was a definitive defeat” of the virus. Customers queuing in Toulouse, France, as part of social distancing measures taken to reduce crowding in supermarkets during the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate of infection increases in Spain was also stabilizing somewhat following drastic containment measures. María José Sierra of the centre of health emergencies said “generally speaking, we can say that yesterday’s rise in cases, which was around 8%, tells us that we’re carrying on in the stabilisation phase of the pandemic”. The country has seen a dip in daily infection rates from 20% between 15 to 25 March to below 12% since then. However, in neighboring France, new infections rose overnight by 15%. In Switzerland, meanwhile, the Geneva University Hospital (HUG) announced that it was launching a study of serological samples, to be collected from among research volunteers, to examine the extend to which Swiss citizens and residents might be infected with the virus asymptomatically, as well as the degree to which exposure might have conferred immunity. As many as 83,300 cases, and 720 deaths, could be expected in Switzerland by 11 April 2020 researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich predicted in a paper published Wednesday on the preprint server MedRxiv. Switzerland currently has reported 17,139 confirmed cases and 378 deaths, although it is believed that many cases have gone unreported insofar as testing has so far largely been confined to people at high risk and with serious symptoms. For the country of 8.5 million people, this still ranks as one of the highest per-capita disease rates in the world, although deaths have remained comparatively low at about .02% of those confirmed ill. In the absence of social distancing interventions, up to 42.7% of the entire Swiss population would have been infected with COVID-19 by 25 April, the researchers also said. The assessments align with previous studies published on the benefits of “non-pharmaceutical interventions” such as closures and stay-at-home orders on slowing the spread of the virus. Cumulative cases and global distribution. Numbers change rapidly Concerns for Vulnerable Populations Increases As governments take measures to protect their citizens from the rising COVID-19 pandemic, experts were increasingly concerns about potential devastating effects on indigenous peoples, refugees, and others worldwide who lack formal citizenship rights in the countries where they are living. Four UN agencies released a statement Tuesday that called for the protection of those at “heightened risk,” including “refugees, those forcibly displaced, the stateless and migrants.” According to the statement, “many refugees live in overcrowded camps, settlements, makeshift shelters or reception centres, where they lack adequate access to health services, clean water and sanitation.” Up to three-quarters of the world’s 70.8 million forcibly displaced people are hosted in countries where health systems are “already overwhelmed and under-capacitated.” As one example, the 10 cases and 1 death reported so far in war-torn Syria may be a sign of a bigger crisis to come, Mark Lowcock, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator told the Security Council, warned the UN Security Council in a meeting Monday. “That is the tip of the iceberg,” he said in a UN press release, warning that only half of Syria’s hospitals and primary health-care centres were fully functional at the end of 2019. And while the UN has assisted in rehabilitating the Central Public Health Laboratory, pre-positioning medical supplies, and upgrading isolation units around the country; the fragility of the health system and critical supply chains further complicate COVID-19 measures. Cross-border deliveries of aid supplies between Turkey and north-west Syria have more than doubled compared to the same period last year to 2150 trucks per day. Some US $340 million has so far been received by the UN Office of Humanitarian Affairs under a US $500 million funding call. Meanwhile, as confirmed cases soar beyond 12,000 in South America, indigenous tribes in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have taken matters into their own hands in the face of what they call “a historic danger,” as quoted in the Guardian. The Xingu people in Brazil have sealed off roads into their reserve and are urging locals to leave only for emergencies, as the country’s number of confirmed cases topped 5500 and deaths rose to over 200. In Colombia, which has almost 900 confirmed cases so far, tribes have been self-isolating and outlawing visits to their ancestral lands while collaborating with local governments to procure adequate supplies. Isolated tribes living in areas with fragile health systems, are particularly susceptible to acute, highly infectious diseases. Outbreaks of measles, smallpox and flu viruses had a long track record of “decimating” indigenous communities. Some countries are taking more widespread social welfare measures for vulnerable populations. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a US$24 billion welfare package to provide free food rations for 800 million disadvantaged people, cash transfers to 204 million poor women, and free cooking gas for 80 million households for the next 3 months. Health Experts Revisit Benefits of Wearing Masks in Public As the intensity of coronavirus infections rises in many parts of the world, health experts are beginning to reconsider whether the general public should wear face masks after all. Until now, the World Health Organization as well as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have recommended the use of face coverings only for the sick or for health workers treating those who might be ill. However, CDC director Robert Redfield said that this recommendation is currently under review. The US CDC recommendation under consideration would specifically recommend fabric masks, or do-it-yourself type masks for the general public, reports the Washington Post. Medical grade masks such as surgical masks or N95 respirators – which are in desperately short supply around the world – would still be restricted to use by healthcare workers. At his press briefing on Tuesday, even President Trump has encouraged the public to cover their faces with scarves when they go out, so that masks may be reserved for healthcare workers. “I can tell you that the data and this issue of whether it’s going to contribute [to prevention] is being aggressively reviewed as we speak,” Redfield told NPR in an interview. Many prominent healthcare experts have weighed in on the issue, including former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb. In a paper he published with American Enterprise Institute, a conservative US policy think tank, Gottlieb recommended supplementing social distancing measures with the widespread use of facemasks, citing the large numbers of asymptomatic cases that go undetected. “Face masks will be most effective at slowing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 if they are widely used, because they may help prevent people who are asymptomatically infected from transmitting the disease unknowingly”, says Gottlieb, citing South Korea and Hong Kong as places where facemasks were widely used, and managed to successfully control the outbreaks. Similarly, other individual experts have advocated for the use of facemasks as a socially responsible insurance policy. And countries are beginning to act as well. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday issued a new order that anyone leaving their homes should wear a mask “or other face covering”, making it the first country outside China to adopt mandatory mask usage while out in public. Hungary this week also ordered people visiting supermarkets to wear facemasks in order to risk infection spread in venues that often remain crowded with customers. Street scene in France. Universal masking being reconsidered. Tobacco Industry Joins the COVID-19 Vaccine Race British American Tobacco (BAT), the world’s second largest cigarette maker, announced that it would launch an effort to develop a COVID-19 vaccine using tobacco plants, joining a global effort that has generated over 90 potential vaccine candidates so far. Using plant-based production, the company claimed in a press release that between 1-3 million doses of vaccine could be manufactured per week by June. The process works by first identifying and cloning an antigen – an immune-response generating portion of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 – into a tobacco plant. The antigen can then be purified from grown and harvested tobacco plants in as little as 6 weeks. The tobacco plant production method was used by BAT’s US bio-tech subsidiary, Kentucky BioProcessing (KBP), to successfully manufacture the Ebola treatment ZMapp in 2014. “KBP has been exploring alternative uses of the tobacco plant for some time. One such alternative use is the development of plant-based vaccines,” said David O’Reilly, director of Scientific Research at BAT. “We are committed to contributing to the global effort to halt the spread of COVID-19 using this technology.” However, the SARS-CoV-2 antigen that would supposedly be purified and used for the production, is still being evaluated in preclinical tests. Image Credits: Samaritan's Purse, Wikimedia Commons: Alteo31300. Strong Age-Linked COVID-19 Death Risk Confirmed By Largest-Ever Study Of Chinese Population Infected 31/03/2020 Grace Ren, Svĕt Lustig Vijay & Elaine Ruth Fletcher A new study examining data from nearly 90% of mainland China’s confirmed COVID-19 cases found that the death rate among people older than 80 was 13.4%, as compared to only .32% for people under the age of 60. Almost one in five patients over the age of 80 were likely to require hospitalisation, as compared with around 1% of people under 30, according to an analysis of a subset of 3,665 cases. The analysis, published Tuesday in the Lancet Journal of Infectious Diseases is the first large-scale study to account for long-presumed underestimation of mild or asymptomatic cases in death rate and hospitalization rate estimates. It is also the first to include data on infections among Wuhan expats who were airlifted out of the city at the outset of the lockdown, as well as cases linked to the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While the crude case fatality rate was 3.67%, the authors estimated that the true average death rate, including milder, under-reported cases, was around 1.38%. Based on an analysis of cases among Wuhan expats, the authors also proposed that accounting for all COVID-19 infections could yield an even lower infection-fatality rate of about .66%. The Lancet study examined a total of 70,117 laboratory-confirmed and clinically-diagnosed cases in mainland China, or about 80% of cases reported there so far, as well as 689 positive cases among people evacuated from Wuhan on repatriation flights and cases identified on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While still considerably higher than the death rates for seasonal flu (.01%), the 1.38% average case fatality ratio is significantly lower than the crude case fatality ratios cited by most sources until now, including the World Health Organization. However, the authors’ assumptions about the widespread circulation of asymptomatic infections also contradicts another large-scale study that examined that issue. The report of some 320,000 Chinese in Guangdong Province, found that only .14% of people tested in fever clinic screenings were infected with the virus. It is therefore likely that the true rate of mild and asymptomatic infections will continue to be debated until more large-scale serological studies are undertaken. “Our estimates can be applied to any country to inform decisions around the best containment policies for COVID-19,” says Azra Ghani, an author on the paper and professor at the Imperial College London, UK, in a press release. “There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention, but our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalisation is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal.” However, the authors caution that up to 50% to 80% of the global population could be infected with COVID-19 in the absence of any interventions, meaning that the number of people needing hospital treatment is likely to overwhelm even the most advanced healthcare systems worldwide. According to The Lancet study, after adjusting for underreporting of mild cases, older adults faced the highest risk of requiring hospitalization from the infection at 18.4%, compared to an estimated hospitalization rate of 3.4% in people in their 30s, and 1% for people in their 20s. The Lancet study, however, still contrasts sharply with hospitalization and mortality data from confirmed cases in some hotspots such as Italy and the United States. In Italy, WHO officials reported that up to 50% of those hospitalized for COVID-19 are under the age of 50. A report released by the US Centers for Disease Control earlier this month found that 38% of hospitalized cases in the country were under the age of 55. Case fatality and hospitalization rates can “vary slightly from country to country because of differences in prevention, control, and mitigation policies implemented,” said Shigui Ruan, an infectious disease modeling researcher at the University of Miami in a separate Lancet Comment on the study. Thus, each country’s hospitalization and death rates are ” substantially affected by the preparedness and availability of health care,” he added. A separate study published Monday by Imperial College, London estimated that across 11 European countries “Non-pharmaceutical interventions” such as case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, widescale social distancing and national lockdowns helped avert up to 59,000 deaths by COVID-19. Between 7-43 million individuals had been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 as of 28 March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population, the study concluded. The attack rate – or rate of new infections – caused by the virus is estimated to be highest in Italy and Spain, and lowest in Germany and Norway. BARDA Branch Of US Health Agency Takes Over Clinical Trials for 2 Vaccine Candidates Meanwhile, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) branch of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said that it would take over late-stage development of the first COVID-19 vaccine candidate to enter Phase I clinical trials, mRNA-1273. The federal agency will also step in to support early development of another potential vaccine with an eye to rolling it out for emergency use in the US by early 2021. Originally created through a collaboration between Moderna, Inc and the US National Institute of Allergies and Infections Diseases (NIAID), the company will now shift to collaborating with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), to move mRNA-1273 through Phase II and Phase III clinical trials. 3D print of a spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus In a parallel development, BARDA will collaborate with the Janssen R&D arm of the US pharma firm, Johnson & Johnson (J&J), to accelerate non-clinical trials and Phase I trials of their investigational vaccine, Ad26 SARS-CoV-2. The Phase 1 clinical trial is set to begin no later than fall of 2020 with the goal of making the COVID-19 vaccine available for emergency use in the United States in early 2021. At the same time, the agency is collaborating with J&J to make plans to produce up to 300 million doses of the vaccine every year for use in the United States. “Delivering a safe and effective vaccine for a rapidly spreading disease like COVID-19 requires accelerated action with parallel development streams,” said the BARDA Director Rick Bright in a press release. BARDA, as part of the HHS, can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials. Setting up processes now to run late-phase clinical trials and scale-up manufacturing rather than taking the more traditional sequential approach to vaccine development could “shave months off the timeline for vaccine development,” the agency claims. BARDA can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials – although it remains to be seen whether the patent rights associated with any successfully developed vaccines will be held by the US government or private companies. Depending on the terms and type of contract signed, HHS can do “pretty much anything,” James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International (KEI) said in an interview with Health Policy Watch. As one example, HHS could use federal funds to “buy-out” patents to contribute to a global “pool” of intellectual property rights, according to one KEI blog. “HHS/BARDA should explain what the contractual terms for data and patent rights were,” added Love. Experts Say COVID-19 Casts Risks From Climate Change & Environmental Degradation in Sharp Relief Meanwhile, looking towards the future, a WHO COVID-19 Special Envoy and the leader of the UN Development Programme’s Health and Development Group, warned that the world needs to meet critical climate and sustainable development goals in order to prevent the recurrence of further COVID-19 pandemics. “Most outbreaks are zoonotic,” noted Mandeep Dhaliwal – Director of UNDP’s HIV, Health and Development Group, speaking at a webinar on Tuesday organized by the global group, Health Care Without Harm. “We talk a lot about health system preparedness, readiness, response. But missing from that conversation are the environmental factors that result from human activity that cause those outbreaks. These are not addressed so we keep lurching from one outbreak to another.” The coronavirus, which scientists believe originated in bats, was likely transmitted to humans by wild animals, possibly a pangolin, a species that is hunted illegally and sold in live animal markets throughout Asia. Similarly, viruses circulating among gorillas and chimpanzees in Africa, hunted and sold as bushmeat, are believed to have sparked the 2014-16 West African Ebola outbreak as well as the HIV/AIDS epidemic. “The pace of zoonotic outbreaks is going to increase, and is going to be magnified in the ways that you saw with COVID-19,” Dhaliwal predicted, until stronger linkages were made to prevent the patterns of ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, which intensify human contact with wild animals, leading to higher risks of zoonotic infections. Conversely, she noted that environmental health risks such as air pollution “also make people more vulnerable to COVID-19,” as do climate-related health risks such as climate-induced food and nutrition insecurity. “COVID 19 changes everything from the way we work as a global community,” she said. “We will not be able to ignore this anymore – we need to do something about the human activity that is driving this [zoonotic infections], and those actions will have to come from outside the health sector. We need integrated solutions to address the climate crisis and zoonotic outbreaks.” Said David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on COVID-19. “This is an issue that requires all of the approaches that we developed in the sustainable development agenda, interconnectedness, working across all parts of society. The principles of the sustainable development have to be at the center of what we are trying to do. But can leaders manage this, while still having their full attention on their people and the awful political trade-offs that they are having to make?” According to Health Care Without Harm, the worldwide pandemic and the climate crisis, are converging health emergencies. “With one, disease spreads like wildfire. And with the other, wildfires and other impacts, spread disease. While at first blush these two crises are not necessarily related to one another, there are a series of coronavirus – climate crisis connections that are worthwhile exploring, as they reveal several common causes, synergistic impacts and shared solutions.” Rate of New COVID-19 Infections Potentially Slowing Down in Europe Europe is still COVID-19’s epicentre, with almost 32 000 new cases since yesterday and over 2 500 new deaths. However, there were nearly 5000 fewer new cases in Europe reported on 30 March compared to 29 March, according to Monday night’s WHO situation report. Europe currently has 392,757 confirmed cases and 23,692 deaths. “Italy and Spain are potentially stabilizing and it is our fervent hope that this is the case. But we have to continue to push the virus down”, said Mike Ryan, executive director of the Health Emergencies Programme, at a WHO press conference yesterday. Donning gloves in the hospital storage room, Lecco, Lombardy. (Photo: Fabio Fadeli) Italy, which has about 13% of the world’s confirmed cases, is experiencing a decrease in new cases, with only 4000 new cases on the 30th of March compared to last week’s average of 5 500 new cases a day. Yesterday, the number of new cases in Spain was 6549 in comparison to 8189 new cases reported on the 29 March. To help respond to the unmet and urgent needs to tackle COVID-19, today, the Spanish government approved the distribution of 300 million euros to Spain’s Autonomous Regions. Israel may also be seeing a slowdown in the increase in cases. Israel which currently has 4831 cases, reported only 448 new cases yesterday compared to the weekend average of 606 new cases a day. Switzerland on Tuesday recorded 16176 cases and 373 total deaths, 701 more than the previous day. Some 78 new deaths were reported, marking the largest daily increase in deaths in the last seven days. Blood tests that are also able to detect asymptomatic cases are being developed and deployed both in Zurich and Geneva. The University Hospital in Zurich plans to test all incoming patients, whether ill or victims of accidents, to further detect new cases. The country is testing roughly 13,600 per million people, putting its per capita testing rate at higher than even South Korea. In the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Iran leads with a total of 40 000 total confirmed cases. In an unexpected move last week, Iran rescinded approval for Médecins Sans Frontieres’ (MSF) COVID-19 intervention in Isfahan. MSF’s charter planes, which were carrying material to build an inflatable 50-bed treatment unit, had already landed in Tehran. In the Americas, cases have steadily increased at about 21 000 new cases per day over the past two days. The USA, which has surpassed any other country in the world, has 164 610 confirmed cases as of today, 40% of which are in New York State. Yesterday, in a statement from New York’ Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Press Office, a new plan was announced to transfer patients between public and private hospitals to balance current demand with local capacity. Africa has confirmed 3486 cases, and has reported about 400 new cases a day. South Africa, which has about 40% of Africa’s cases, has experienced a dramatic reduction in new cases with a weekend average of 70, which is in stark comparison to numbers reported on 27 March, when the country peaked with 243 new cases. However, WHO experts have cautioned that low weekend reporting patterns and limited testing may lead to underestimates of the true case numbers in the continent. According to WHO’s daily situation report, there are 4048 cases in WHO’s Southeast Asia region as of Monday night. By Tuesday night, India, the most populous country in the region, had 1251 confirmed cases with 32 deaths. However, the country has one of the lowest testing rates in the world, at 32 tests per million. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 21-day lockdown, which began last Tuesday, has resulted in a mass exodus of daily wage migrant workers after losing their jobs and the order to return home. At least 22 deaths have been reportedly linked to the mass exodus. In anticipation of an upwards surge in cases, the Ministry of Railways has agreed to modify 20000 coaches into quarantine and isolation wards to supplement the country’s facilities. Total active of COVID-19 as of 7 p.m. CET 31 March. Right column shows confirmed cases. Numbers change rapidly. Gauri Saxena contributed to this story. Image Credits: NIAID, Johns Hopkins CSSE. WHO Nears $675 Million ‘Goal’ For COVID-19 Response – $622 Million Pledged 30/03/2020 Grace Ren & Svĕt Lustig Vijay WHO team of technical experts conclude a COVID-19 support mission to Egypt. The World Health Organization has received more than US $622 million of a US $675 million ask to fund WHO’s first Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan for COVID-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday. “We continue to be encouraged by the signs of global solidarity to confront and overcome this common threat,” said Dr Tedros, speaking at an afternoon press briefing. In a parallel development, Norway is leading an initiative to establish a multi-donor fund for the global COVID-19 response to assist developing countries, coordinating with the United Nations to launch the initiative within the next few days. “A multi-donor fund under UN auspices will provide predictability for our partners and help to make the efforts more effective,” said Minister of Foreign Affairs Ine Eriksen Søreide in a press release. ‘Experience from other crises shows that the earlier you start long-term response planning, the more precise and successful the effort becomes.” Unlike the UN Solidarity Fund, which is soliciting donations from individuals and private donors for the response, this fund will collate resources from major bilateral donors and international agencies, similar to the UN Ebola Response Fund set up in 2014 to address the emergency in West Africa. The fund will provide both immediate emergency aid to developing countries, and aid for longer term development initiatives to prop up weak health systems to prepare for future pandemics. In another meeting Monday with Ministers of Trade from the Group of 20 (G20) richest countries in the world, Dr Tedros also called on G20 countries to significantly their increase production of personal protective equipment (PPE), and ensure its equitable distribution of equipment around the world. “Specific attention should be given to low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America,” said Dr Tedros in a statement. “We call on countries to work with companies to increase production; to ensure the free movement of essential health products; and to ensure equitable distribution of those products, based on need.” However, hoarding and misappropriation of donated PPE equipment also may loom as a thorny problems that donors need to resolve. At the China-Uganda Friendship Referral Hospital near Kampala, one of three Ugandan reference hospitals for COVID-19 cases, health workers taking throat swabs from suspected COVID-19 patients and managing an isolation ward, lack basic protective gear except gloves, Health Policy Watch learned. N-95 masks must be purchased by the doctors and nurses out of pocket, and protective gowns and face shields are unavavilable. Gloves were provided by the hospital after workers threatened to strike, but when supplies run low, patients have to pay for those themselves before they are examined. WHO did not comment on the report. 154 NGOs Submit Open Letter Calling For Gilead To Retract Remdesivir Patent Applications Some 154 NGOs released an open letter Monday calling for Gilead Sciences to rescind its patent applications for remdesivir in 70 countries that could grant the company market exclusivity until 2031 on the experiemental drug, a promising potential COVID-19 treatment. The campaign, coordinated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), aligns closely with a growing movement within the medicines access community to push for mandatory “pooled” rights for COVID-19 technologies. In an unusual move, Gilead already asked the US FDA to rescind special “orphan drug” status for remdesivir last week after facing an intense public backlash, just days after recieving the designation. Orphan drug status would have granted Gilead an addition 7 years of market exclusivity. However, according to the MSF statement, the company still has pending patent applications for remdesivir in at least 70 other countries. “It is unacceptable for Gilead’s remdesivir to be put under the company’s exclusive control, taking into account that the drug was developed with considerable public funding for both early-stage research and clinical trials; the extraordinary efforts and personal risks that both healthcare workers and patients have faced in using the medicine in clinical trial settings; and the unprecedented disaster all countries are facing for their people, their healthcare systems, and their economies” said Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in a statement today. In the open letter, Gilead was urged to take immediate action in the public interest by declaring that it will drop all exclusive rights on patents, regulatory and trial data, as well as making all data required for development of generic drug versions publically available to enable their production and supply. Finally, Gilead was requested to improve its transparency by disclosing its existing supply and manufacturing capacity. “There is a further step to take, as a voluntary pool may not be sufficient, especially when the crisis intensity cools and public approbation for actions like Gilead’s Orphan designation abates,” said Paul Fehlner, President & CEO of reVision Therapeutics, in an interview with Health Policy Watch. “An entity dedicated to the public interest could obtain consequential legal exclusivities (Orphan drug designation, data and market exclusivity) and prevent opportunistic third parties from getting them”. According to Fehlner, creating a “pool” of rights would take minimum efforts, only requiring a willing coordinator to “aggregate data from ongoing trials worldwide and submit formal applications to health authorities.” “This crisis presents an immediate and urgent opportunity to wield the tools of exclusivity to promote access to medical products that may combat COVID-19,” said Fehlner. COVID-19 Trends As the United States now leads the world in coronavirus cases with 143,055 confirmed cases and 2,513 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins tracking database, President Trump extended the U.S. social distancing guidelines until the end of April, rescinding his earlier predictions that the lockdown would end by mid-April’s Easter holiday. Meanwhile, the UN donated 250,000 protective face masks to the USA from its New York headquarters to help combat the outbreak’s epicenter in New York. As the US is faced with rapidly increasing cases, inefficiencies from failed coronavirus tests, and shortage of ventilators, STATNews reports that the Genomics Institute led by Jennifer Doudna, the pioneer of CRISPR gene editing technology, will start running coronavirus tests in order to increase the turnaround time of testings in the San Francisco Bay Area. Over the weekend, Italy and Spain bolster efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus and flatten the curve. Italy, numbers 97,689 cases and 10,779 deaths, and Spain, numbers 85,195 cases and 7,340 deaths, have overtaken China’s 82,198 cases and 3,308 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins coronavirus tracking database. As infection increases, Italy has decided to extend its national lockdown beyond the April 3rd date while Spain tightens the national lockdown for all citizens, except for the workers in the essential sectors until April 9th. As the rate of infection within countries intensified, European countries began to depart from longstanding WHO guidance against the wearing of masks by the general public. Notably, Austria made masks obligatory for clients in supermarkets mandatory to curb airborne spread of the coronavirus amongst customers. Crowded supermarkets have been identified in a number of countries as nexus points for virus spread. However, until now, universal masking has only been practiced in Asia, while WHO repeatedly said the measure was unecessary elsewhere. The Hungarian Parliament, meanwhile, awarded wide-ranging powers to Prime Minister Viktor Orban for an indefinite period, to fight the pandemic, including curtailing free speech and other democratic rights. South-East and Western Asia In South-East Asia, the coronavirus was increasingly disrupting the lives of those living on the socioeconomic margins. After Prime Minister Modi’s surprise lockdown announcement, India’s daily wage earners struggle under the nationwide lockdown as many are stranded in cities without food, housing, and means of getting back home, particularly vulnerable are the Muslim minority who have been victims of recent riots over amendments to the naional citizenship bill. The challenges faced by the rural Indian migrants in the megacities post-lockdown has initiated one of the largest exodus of people back into the rural areas. Meanwhile, in the Western Pacific Region, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) postpones the Tokyo Summer Olympics to July 23rd, 2021 to August 8th, 2021. Online debates also continued to swirl around the degree of China’s influence on the WHO. On Sunday, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu tweeted a complaint referring a senior WHO official’s response to a question from a Hong Kong journalist, about whether WHO would reconsider Taiwan application for member state status. “Wow, can’t even utter ‘Taiwan’ in the WHO? You should set politics aside in dealing with a pandemic,” Wu wrote. Taiwan has accused WHO of ignoring its early warnings about the appearance of a novel coronavirus in mainland China, as well as brushing aside subsequent criticism that China repressed early news about the virus spread, which delayed a more systematic public health response. Overall, Europe continued to lead with half or more of the now active COVID-19 cases worldwide, followed by the United States. There were some 30,000 active cases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, including heavily hit Iran. South-East Asia was reporting nearly 3,600 active cases, and in WHO’s Africa region, there were more than 3,300 infections reported. In the Western Pacific Region, there were some 18,095 active cases, but only about 3,000 of those were in mainland China. Total cases of COVID-19 as of 8 p.m CET, with active case distribution globally. Numbers change rapidly. -Tsering Lhamo contributed to this report. Image Credits: WHO EMRO. ‘Anticipatory Anxiety’: Africa on Cusp of The COVID-19 Pandemic 30/03/2020 Kerry Cullinan Health workers in full protective gear do a COVID-19 throat swab in a Addis Ababa isolation centre. But in Kampala, Uganda, doctors have no suits and they must to purchae their own masks. CAPETOWN, South Africa – As many African countries opt for lockdowns to combat COVID-19, there is uncertainty over whether this will be enough to prevent the pandemic’s spread, or whether authorities will be able to implement this in overcrowded urban areas – as well as fears for patients with HIV, TB and other conditions that require monthly medication. There is a sense that Africans are on the shore watching the sea drawing back before the tsunami of infections hit, overwhelming the continent’s health facilities and killing thousands of people. In late February, just a handful of African countries had recorded a few COVID-19 cases. Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, with a high volume of air traffic from other affected regions of the world, were hit first. By yesterday (29 March), 4,282 cases of the virus had been recorded in 46 of the 54 African countries, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). WHO’s Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus recently warned the continent to “prepare for the worst”. African countries have been struggling to reconcile measures to arrest the virus, such as travel bans, social distancing and restricting public gatherings, with the need to protect their weak economies. More African Countries Using Lockdown Measures Amid the growing consensus that China’s reversal of its pandemic started from a lockdown, and this is the most effective way to reverse the pandemic, key African countries have opted for drastic measures to contain the virus in the past few days. Rwandans are in a 14-day lockdown which started on 22 March. Kenya has a night-time curfew and restrictions on gatherings. South Africa went into a 21-day total lockdown on Friday. Soweto, South Africa. Poverty and crowded conditions make lockdowns doubly difficult. “Those countries that have acted swiftly and dramatically have been far more effective in controlling the spread of the disease,” said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. “While this measure will have a considerable impact on people’s livelihoods, on the life of our society and on our economy, the human cost of delaying this action would be far, far greater.” The Democratic Republic of Congo implemented a four-day lockdown on Saturday, after the move had been delayed for a few days when the prices of essential goods spiked. Yesterday, Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari announced a 14-day lockdown for Lagos and Ogun state which comes into effect at 11pm Monday, 30 March. Ghanians living in Accra and Kumasi face a two-week lockdown from today. Zimbabweans also face a 21-day lockdown from today, and Lesotho citizens face a 25-day lockdown. Congo-Brazzaville goes into lockdown from tomorrow (Tuesday) and eight towns in Burkina Faso will be shut down from Friday for 14 days. However, implementing the lockdowns has proven challenging. South Africans may only leave their homes to buy basic groceries or medical supplies and there is a ban on the sale of alcohol. The South African National Defence Force has been brought in to support the police. Already, police used rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse shoppers in Johannesburg who were refusing to stand an arm’s length apart. Two Rwandans were reported to have been shot dead over the weekend, although that government subsequently denied that the shootings were related to the lockdown. Observers also fear that the heavy-handed application of lockdown measures, in the African context, will deprive people of access to food and essential services, including essential medical care. One worried Ugandan doctor who contacted Health Policy Watch related the story of an expectant mother living in a village some distance from Kampala, who had called him shortly after the country’s lockdown was announced on Monday, fearing that she was going into labour. “She has poor obstetric history,” he said. “A few days ago, she did an ultrasound scan that revealed a breech presentation. Her expected date of delivery is 3 April. She cannot access medical services since she is in the village, in a distance not walkable to the nearest facility where she can have ceaserian section done (if necessary). “‘I can not afford an ambulance because drivers often need fuel facilitation,’ she lamented. I was left speechless… She is opting to walk to the nearest traditional birth attendant for some magic. I felt this is worth sharing.” COVID-19 simulation exercise at the Kinshasa International Airport, Democratic Republic of Congo. Some Front-Line Health Workers Aren’t Getting PPE Supplies – Despite Massive WHO Shipments Meanwhile, epidemics experts are urging African governments to do whatever they can to protect the continent’s thin line of health workers. They urgently need personal protective equipment (PPE) such as masks, gloves and hand sanitiser. “But other measures are very important such as ventilation, spacing, early triage and separation of potential cases and increased access to water and supplies,” said Amanda McClelland, senior vice-president of PreventEpidemics, part of Vital Strategies’ Resolve to Save Lives programme. Dr Gilles van Cutsem, an infectious disease doctor and epidemiologist with Médicins sans Frontières (MSF), stressed that “there needs to be planning and preparation for screening and triage at health facilities to avoid overcrowding and saturation of hospitals, and ensure that hospitals do not become foci of transmission”. “In Italy and China triage tents were set up outside hospitals to receive and separate patients,” added van Cutsem. Meanwhile, HIV clinician Dr Francois Venter, deputy director of Reproductive Health and HIV Institute Johannesburg, urged those who are “mildly symptomatic” to stay away from health facilities to make sure that there is space for the very sick. Speaking after 14 days in quarantine, Venter said he had “anticipatory anxiety” as he waited for the deluge of patients. “I was almost disappointed that my [COVID-19] test was negative. For the first time in my life, I understand emotionally the relief that some of my gay clients expressed when they finally tested positive for HIV,” said Venter. While the WHO has reportedly sent large consignments of PPE to various African countries, shortages are still being reported all over the continent. There were only 60 N95masks distributed to some 280 health workers at China-Uganda Friendship Hospital near Kampala, a designated treatment facility for Covid-19 patients. Doctors and nurses performing COVID-19 tests have to purchase their own masks, according to one staff member, assigned to the COVID-19 isolation unit. That, despite the fact a WHO African “Readiness” Checklist showed Uganda to be equipped with masks and gloves. WHO Readiness Checklist shows Uganda equipped with PPE. Frontline health workers in Kampala isolation unit say they must buy their own masks. The hospital staff only received gloves after threatening to go on strike – although when gloves run short, patients are also asked to purchase them in order to be examined. When asked by Health Policy Watch about the reports of PPE shortages in Uganda’s COVID-19 units, WHO did not comment. Nor did it provide aggregate totals of PPE supplies that have been shipped to Africa until now. However, in a press briefing Monday, WHO Emergencies Head Mike Ryan said, “”We have already sent large numbers of PPE and diagnostics to the countries. It’s not enough. We are working with World Food Programme, Jack Ma Foundation, and Africa CDC to bring in PPE.” Jack Ma, founder of the Alibaba Group, is making a series of massive donations to regions across the world, including 1.1 million test kits, 6 million masks and 60,000 protective suits for Africa, which were due to begin distribution last week, according to Ethiopia’s Prime Minsiter, Abiy Ahmed Ali. Donations of PPE from by the Jack Ma Foundation land in Addis Ababa last week. McClelland recently returned from Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous African country, and has few illusions about the massive tasks that lie ahead: “There is still much more to do in Ethiopia to test and detect cases. The extent of transmission in this country with 105 million people is not really known.” There are two major challenges: preparing and training health workers – Ethiopia only has 19,000 – and engaging communities to change their personal behaviour to limit the spread. Sobering new data from Imperial College predicts that 250 critical care beds will be needed per 100, 000 people if the non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and restricting gatherings, are not successful in stemming the tide of infections. A recent report from Nigeria estimates that the country may only have around 500 ventilators for a population of over 200-million. Said Ryan, “The issue of ventilators is very important – but from the perspective of supporting patients, oxygen is also something we need to discuss.“Before ventilator support, what truly is lifesaving is the ability to give patients supplemental oxygen. When someone has COVID19 your lungs struggle to put oxygen in your blood. Every country in Africa has oxygen. We need to focus on getting better distribution of lifesaving oxygen. We are working to scale up the distribution of supplies and coordinate in a way that countries can expect a smooth service.” “Micro-Isolation” Tactics Used For Ebola May Help Contain COVID-19 While COVID-19 is a different kind of infection, with effects likely to eclipse the more deadly but less contagious diseases such as Ebola, the continent has learnt important lessons about epidemics from its experiences battling such viruses steadily, including during the 2014-2016 health emergency in West Africa, as well as the more 2018-2020 Ebola epidemic in DRC, now finally on the wane. While trying to contain Ebola, Guinea introduced a form of community quarantine called “micro-cerclage” (micro-encirclement) to limit the movement of people in Ebola-affected areas. Those showing symptoms of Ebola were placed in isolation while those close to them were asked to limit their movements. Limited essential movement – such as attending to crops – was allowed and was often monitored by people’s mobile phones. Amanda McCelelland, Prevent Epidemics Community leaders’ support for the policy was key, as were local response teams who enforced the monitoring. Affected households were also provided with food and basic toiletries. “Microcerclage is one approach that will potentially add real value to addressing COVID-19 but this will depend on the scale of community transmission,” says McClelland, who came face-to-face with Ebola while working in the Emergency Health Unit of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “If clusters can be detected early and isolated then this approach could help communities to not be negatively impacted and to continue to have access to key services and resources including food and water.” But a huge challenge is how to quarantine city dwellers. Over 20 million people live in crowded conditions in Lagos, five million live in Johannesburg and three million in Addis Ababa. “Self-isolation and restriction of population movement on a much larger scale in some cities would stretch the resources to be able to provide food, water and services on a citywide scale,” warned McClelland. Community Engagement Also Key Ebola also has negative lessons. “Without community engagement and trust, the outcomes can be devastating,” warned McClelland. “In the Ebola response, this tragically included violence against first responders. We must do everything we can to avoid this in the response to COVID-19.” In 2019 in the DRC alone, MSF recorded more than 300 attacks on Ebola health workers, during which six people were killed and 70 wounded. Stigmatising foreigners assumed to be infected with COVID-19 is already happening. On 18 March, the US embassy in Ethiopia issued a security alert warning of “a rise in anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19”. “Incidents of harassment and assault directly related to COVID-19 have been reported by other foreigners living within Addis Ababa and other cities throughout the country. Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones, denied transportation services, being spat on, chased on foot, and been accused of being infected with COVID-19,” according to the Embassy. Laboratory capacity has also been improved in many Ebola-affected countries, and Nigeria in particular has made substantial improvements in combating epidemics in the last few years. But Van Cutsem warned that the laboratory capacity of most African countries, aside from South Africa is “extremely poor”. “Countries have to find ways to improve the capacity of their laboratories to process tests, and we need the introduction of rapid tests,” said Van Cutsem. While some African leaders have speculated that the virus may not survive in high temperatures, McClelland simply says: “The short answer is we do not know yet. The science is still not clear. There is some evidence that, in a laboratory , the virus may be affected by warmer temperatures. But we also have transmission occurring in warm climates like Australia, the Middle East and South East Asia. Influenza transmits all year round in much of Africa and can actually be worse in dusty conditions. It is too early to assume Africa is protected due to heat and they must prepare with the same sense of urgency as other countries.” Hopes that the pandemic may be short-lived are not shared by experts who quietly talk about the current conditions continuing for many more months. “Settle down to this. Social isolation might be the new normal for the rest of the year. Look after your mental health, check in with people and be kind,” advises Venter. At the same time, in Africa, where large proportions of the population live below or on the verge of poverty, ensuring people’s basic needs during the COVID-19 emergency, will still remain the most fundamental priority, said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in a brieing Monday. “Some countries have strong social welfare systems, some countries don’t. I’m from Africa as you know, and I know some people have to work every single day to win their daily bread. And governments have to take this into account. If we are closing and limiting movement, what will happen to people who have to work on a daily basis? We don’t mean the effect as an average of GDP loss or general effect on the economy; we have to see what it means to an individual on the street.” – Kerry Cullinan is the health editor for openDemocracy 50.50, and based in South Africa. -Updated 31 March, 2020 Image Credits: Matt-80, © WHO/Otto B., © WHO/Kabambi E., Twitter: @AbiyAhmedAli , Vital Strategies , Courtesy of Kerry Cullinan. COVID-19 Testing Trends – Globally & Regionally 30/03/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 (HPW/Svet Lustig): How countries rank in COVID-19 tests/per million population. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Testing: the crux of effective outbreak responses Testing is an essential component of effective outbreak responses. Without widespread testing, we cannot know whether a disease is spreading nor take measures to appropriately respond to it. “All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded, they should know where the cases are, and that is how they can take decisions,” said Dr Tedros, WHO Director General. Health Policy Watch is tracking testing trends in countries around the world, based on data from FIND’s COVID-19 tracker. We display diagnostic capacity using two measures – cumulative testing by countries and trends showing change We have displayed the data using two measures: cumulative number of tests per million population, for all countries administering tests as of 28 March, and trends in selected countries over the past week. From the cumulative data, we can see how some countries, including Iceland, Bahrain, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland, far outpace other nations in terms of their rate of testing, per million people. We also see how many low and middle income countries across Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia still lack any significant test capacity, even while cases are rising. Importantly, we present testing data per million people to account for large population differences between countries. From the trends data, we can also see how countries such as Australia, Switzerland and the United States, have very rapidly ramped up testing over just the past week, while others, such as France and Great Britain, lag further behind. Testing Trends In Europe Within the past week, European countries such as Switzerland and the Czech Republic have doubled and tripled their testing capacity, respectively. Switzerland, which has one of the highest per-capita rates of infection in the world, has now administered 12,639 tests per million people. Countries like France and the UK, however, have not reported any changes in testing over the past week, with only 1,548 and 1,779 tests per million , respectively, despite increasingly high infection rates. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected countries of WHO’s European Region. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Americas Regions – High Income Australia has sharply increased its testing, with 8,134 tests per million on 28 March, double that of a week ago. While the USA has almost quadrupled its testing capacity in one week, it still has only administered a total of 2,032 tests per million, lagging behind many high-income regions. Trends covered are in selected high income countries of the region. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Western Pacific (WPRO), Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) and Americas (AMRO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. African, South-East Asian and Americas Regions – Low & Middle Income Trends here are for selected low- and middle-income coutnries that are testing significantly. In the African continent, South Africa leads with 539 tests per million. While South Africa’s testing capacity is still low in comparison to the rest of the world, this is still approximately double compared to last week. In Latin America, Chile has increased its testing five-fold for a cumulative total of 1209 tests per million; followed by Costa Rica, which has doubled its testing capacity to 600 tests per million. While testing capacity has almost doubled in India, as well, the country so far carried out only 20 tests per million people. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Americas (AMRO), African AMRO) and South East Asia (SEARO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. European Parliament Members Urge Open Licensing For COVID-19 Products Financed Through EU Grants 27/03/2020 Grace Ren Transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 (red), the virus that causes COVID-19 Some 33 Members of the European Parliament released an open letter Friday urging top leadership in the European Commission (EC) to prohibit exclusive licensing for COVID-19 products developed with European Union (EU) grants, and demanding transparency in the research and development pipeline to ensure affordability commitments are met. In a separate letter signed by 37 NGOs and over 50 experts in health and patent law, public health and medicine, called on the World Health Organization and all Member States to get behind Costa Rica’s initiative to “pool” COVID-19 patent rights for essential drugs, vaccines, and technologies. The letter was posted by Knowledge Ecology International, a global patent watchdog group. Those campaigns come right in the wake of the World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ Twitter endorsement of Costa Rica’s call to create the “pooled rights” initiative. “We cannot allow patients to be refused care because of financial constraints or shortages resulting from manufacturing or supply constraints,” said the Members of the European Parliament in the letter addressed to EC President Ursula Von Der Leyen; EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, and Youth, Mariya Gabriel; and EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner, Stella Kyriakides. Although the European Commission invests more than double of any private sector partner in EU-funded COVID-19 research, most of the calls for proposals so far do not seem to require companies or organizations to commit to affordability and access clauses, the MPs stated in their letter. Thus, it is even more important to enforce public oversight on the R&D process and bar exclusive licensing, they noted. For new products, companies should be required to commit to non-exclusive licensing on any developed health technology as a precondition for receiving EU funding, said the MPs. Granting exclusive licenses on new products could result in subsequent shortages, as only “one or very few companies” would be “allowed to produce an extremely timely medicine that is required in huge quantities worldwide,” the MPs stated. “From this moment forward, we require new medical tools to be immediately available once authorised for use, at an affordable price and in high enough quantities to meet global demand.” Responding to the calls, Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations warned that pooling patent rights would not likely enhance the global battle against the virus. “While voluntary pooling of intellectual property and other assets can be a tool to stimulate R&D and facilitate access under certain conditions, its effects to address the current pandemic will likely be very limited,” warned Cueni in a statement. “Tools already exist for governments to access the medicines they need, and they are already being used in a number of cases. “In addition, there are established organizations in place – such as the Medicines Patent Pool, a UN-backed initiative that uses a voluntary licensing and ‘pooled’ patent model to grant licenses to generics manufacturers – who have the expertise in licensing and managing an established pool of intellectual property assets,” Cueni added. As one such example, AbbVie Pharmaceuticals recently announced that it would offer through the Medicines Patent Pool licenses for its lopinavir/ritonavir drug combination without patent restrictions, after the HIV treatment was identified by the World Health Organization as one of the drug combinations to be tested in a multi-country trial against COVID-19. “Given the gravity and urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biopharmaceutical industry has not wasted any time or spared any effort in using its skills, technology and resources to bring safe and effective treatments, vaccines and diagnostic to patients around the world as a matter of utmost urgency,” added Cueni, pointing to a list of IFPMA commitments on the emergency. Civil Society Advocates Propose “Phased” Development of COVID-19 Patent Pool However, the proposed pool of patent rights for COVID-19 technologies would, in fact, build on the successes of the Medicines Patent Pool in expanding affordable access to medicines for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and hepatitis C, said Brook Baker, senior policy analyst at the Global Access Project, and a signatory on the KEI letter. “Simply put, no exclusive rights should stand in the way of governments’ and the global community’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Baker wrote in an opinion to Health Policy Watch on Costa Rica’s call to pool rights to drug development. To build agreement around the roll-out of a COVID-19 patent pool, the KEI letter also proposes a phased approach. An initial “phase-one” agreement would establish the minimum legal basis to permit such licensing in the future, and create a process for working out the details. Hammering out which technologies to share, the terms of authorization, and possible remuneration for the pooled licenses could be done at a later date, the KEI signatories suggest. However, the pool for COVID-19 products should go beyond medicines patents, per se, to address regulatory test data, research data, cell lines, basic science innovations, and other intellectual property, the signatories, including some 37 NGOs and 50 experts. Inputs to such a pool could come from governments that fund research and development or buy innovative products, as well as from universities, research institutes, charities, private companies and individuals who control rights, the letter suggests. In parallel moves, two other large NGOs, Médecins Sans Frontières and the Treatment Action Group released separate public statements Friday calling for national governments to prepare to override patent protections as well as to take other measures, such as enacting price controls, to ensure availability of COVID-19 medicines, vaccines, and other medical tools. TAG threw its weight behind the MSF call, earlier in the week, for a US $5 price tag on a rapid COVID-19 test that can be used on the GeneXpert TB platform, which has thousands of diagnostics instruments in Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia. “We know too well from our work around the world what it means to not be able to treat people in our care because a needed drug is just too expensive or simply not available,” said Dr Márcio da Fonseca, Infectious Disease Advisor at MSF’s Access Campaign in the statement. South Africa, one of the first middle-income countries to embrace the Cepheid COVID-19 test, announced that it will begin using the new GeneXpert COVID-19 tests to leverage the large network of over 180 machines in the country to ramp up rapid testing, as total confirmed cases in the country crossed the 1000 cases threshold. The first test cartridges will be available for use in April. Ad for generic lopinavir/ritonavir HIV drug combination, originally marketed as Kaletra by AbbVie, which relinquished its patent rights to the COVID-19 campaign First Patient in WHO’s COVID-19 SOLIDARITY Trial Enrolled in Norway At the University of Oslo Hospital in Norway, the first patient was enrolled Friday in WHO’s massive multi-country SOLIDARITY trial to collect data on potential COVID-19 treatments. This followed on an announcement by Prime Minister Erna Solberg of a 2.2 billion NOK (US$ 211) additional investment into the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) COVID-19 vaccine development efforts. That was in addition to a 1.6 billion NOK (US$ 153.6 million) investment in the Oslo-based CEPI vaccine efforts. “We are in a global quest for knowledge unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Noweigian Minister of Health Bent Høie in a press briefing. “We can save lives, protect healthcare professionals and all others from getting the disease.” The Norwegian SOLIDARITY trial patient will be the first to take part in this WHO-organized global effort to test four potential COVID-19 treatments under a simplified protocol, so that even low-resourced healthcare facilities could participate. The drugs to be tested include Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir; the lopinavir/ritonavir originally developed by AbbVie Inc. for HIV/AIDs along with beta interferon; as well as the anti-malarials chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. Another arm of the trial is also starting on Friday in Spain. The SOLIDARITY Trial began as global case counts surpassed half a million, and total deaths surged over 26,000. “These are tragic numbers,” said Dr Tedros. Some countries are already administering the medications ad-hoc on a compassionate use basis, as well as stockpiling for future mass use. But WHO’s Dr Tedros has cautioned against widespread use of such treatments without strong evidence – following media reports of people self-medicating with the substances or ones similarly named. One man in the United States, for instance, died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used in aquarium cleaning, following US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, according to the Associated Press. “We call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19,” said Dr Tedros. “The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn’t work in humans or were actually harmful.” In one example, he said that “during the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial. “We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.” Contrary to WHO’s cautious approach, a prominent bioethicist suggested a radical approach to fast-tracking vaccine development – purposefully infecting young healthy volunteers with the virus and seeing whether the vaccine protects against infection. In a preprint paper, Director of the Center for Population–Level Bioethics (CPLB) at Rutgers University Nir Eyal suggested that despite placing participants at risk of “severe disease and death”, such a ‘human challenge’ study design could “subtract many months” from the vaccine licensure process, reducing the global burden of coronavirus morbidity and mortality. COVID-19 cases worldwide as of Friday evening. Numbers change rapidly. Image Credits: NIAID. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts This site uses cookies to help give you the best experience on our website. Cookies enable us to collect information that helps us personalise your experience and improve the functionality and performance of our site. 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COVID-19 Is World’s Biggest Challenge Since World War II, Says UN Secretary General 01/04/2020 Gauri Saxena & Grace Ren and Elaine Ruth Fletcher Temporary COVID-19 treatment unit being set up in Central Park, New York City The COVID-19 pandemic is the biggest challenge the world has faced since the Second World War, said United Nations’ Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. He spoke during the launch of a report on the potential socioeconomic impact of the outbreak, Shared Responsibility, Global Solidarity. Speaking from the UN Headquarters in New York on Tuesday, Guterres said that “the new coronavirus disease is attacking societies at their core, claiming lives and people’s livelihoods.” The economic fallout of the outbreak could trigger a recession of unprecedented scale, as up to 25 million jobs could be lost globally as well as a 40% reduction in global foreign direct investment flows. In his statement, Guterres also called upon the G-20 to move ahead with a special Africa initiative, discussed at the extraordinary G20 Summit last week. And he called upon developed countries more generally to bolster health systems and response capacity in lower income nations, saying that, “Otherwise we face the nightmare of the disease spreading like wildfire in the global South with millions of deaths and the prospect of the disease re-emerging where it was previously suppressed. “Millions and millions” could die in Africa without intervention, he later told France 24. Just a day later on Wednesday, the African Development Bank group approved a $2 million emergency grant for countries of the WHO African Region boost surveillance systems, procure and distribute laboratory test kits and reagents, and support coordination mechanisms at national and regional levels. The regional office of WHO Africa reported 3762 confirmed cases and 92 deaths on Tuesday night; South Africa remained the most heavily affected country with 1353 cases but Algeria had the most deaths at 35. The White House Predicts Over 100,000 Coronavirus Deaths in the US Meanwhile, top United States health authorities said that a “best-case scenario” for the pandemic would see the deaths of nearly 100,000 to 240,000 people in the United States. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, leading experts on President Donald Trump’s COVID-19 Task Force, issued the warnings during a White House press conference Tuesday night, with reference to projections produced by the Seattle-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s (IHME). Keeping the curve to the lower end of 100,000 deaths or less, will be contingent on effective enforcement of social distancing and other disease control measures, they stressed. Speaking at the press conference, President Trump warned Americans to brace themselves for a “very, very painful two weeks”, as he announced more severe nationwide measures to be implemented to curb the coronavirus. But he also pointed out that in the absence of such measures, the United States could face as many as 12.2 million deaths, according to projections by Imperial College London cited by Birx earlier in the briefing. Officials were quick to point out that the death projections are not static, given that hotspots like New York and New Jersey are pulling the estimates upwards, but in other states, such as California and Washington, authorities have managed to reduce infection transmission. The state of New York has emerged as the epicentre of the pandemic in the United States, recording over 75,000 confirmed cases and over 1,500 deaths, Governor Andrew Cuomo has said that the outbreak is not expected to peak for another three weeks. “I’m tired of being behind this virus. We’ve been behind this virus from day one. We underestimated this virus. It’s more powerful, it’s more dangerous than we expected,” he said in a press briefing earlier in the day. The United States currently has a total of almost 190,000 confirmed cases with over 4,000 deaths. A preliminary report by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated that 78% of coronavirus patients admitted in intensive care as well as 94% of those who died in the US had at least one underlying chronic condition. People with diabetes, lung disease and heart disease appear to be at higher risk of severe illness, CDC found, which is consistent with findings from Italy and China. As a vivid symbol of the expanding emergency, Mount Sinai Hospital system in New York City was set to open a field hospital in Central Park, in collaboration with Samaritan’s Purse. The tent hospital units, delivered from North Carolina, will provide overflow capacity for Mount Sinai’s COVID-19 patients, with 68 more beds. Italy Extends Lockdown Measures — Even As Infection Curve Plateaus Italy’s civil protection authority has reported that the number of reported coronavirus infections is rising at a slower rate — the country has recorded daily increases around 4-5% in the past 4 days, which is 3-4 times less than the rates recorded two weeks ago. Silvio Brusaferro, the president of Italy’s Higher Health Institute (ISS) told The Guardian “That doesn’t mean we’ve hit the peak and that it’s over, but that we must start the descent … by applying the measures in force”. In an effort to halt the continued rise in cases, lockdown measures currently in place have been extended till April 13; Italy now has over 105,000 cases, and has reported over 12,000 deaths, one of the highest national death rates from the virus. Over 15,000 people have also recovered. Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza said the new trend was a sign that measures are yielding results, but added it would be “unforgivable to assume this was a definitive defeat” of the virus. Customers queuing in Toulouse, France, as part of social distancing measures taken to reduce crowding in supermarkets during the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate of infection increases in Spain was also stabilizing somewhat following drastic containment measures. María José Sierra of the centre of health emergencies said “generally speaking, we can say that yesterday’s rise in cases, which was around 8%, tells us that we’re carrying on in the stabilisation phase of the pandemic”. The country has seen a dip in daily infection rates from 20% between 15 to 25 March to below 12% since then. However, in neighboring France, new infections rose overnight by 15%. In Switzerland, meanwhile, the Geneva University Hospital (HUG) announced that it was launching a study of serological samples, to be collected from among research volunteers, to examine the extend to which Swiss citizens and residents might be infected with the virus asymptomatically, as well as the degree to which exposure might have conferred immunity. As many as 83,300 cases, and 720 deaths, could be expected in Switzerland by 11 April 2020 researchers from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich predicted in a paper published Wednesday on the preprint server MedRxiv. Switzerland currently has reported 17,139 confirmed cases and 378 deaths, although it is believed that many cases have gone unreported insofar as testing has so far largely been confined to people at high risk and with serious symptoms. For the country of 8.5 million people, this still ranks as one of the highest per-capita disease rates in the world, although deaths have remained comparatively low at about .02% of those confirmed ill. In the absence of social distancing interventions, up to 42.7% of the entire Swiss population would have been infected with COVID-19 by 25 April, the researchers also said. The assessments align with previous studies published on the benefits of “non-pharmaceutical interventions” such as closures and stay-at-home orders on slowing the spread of the virus. Cumulative cases and global distribution. Numbers change rapidly Concerns for Vulnerable Populations Increases As governments take measures to protect their citizens from the rising COVID-19 pandemic, experts were increasingly concerns about potential devastating effects on indigenous peoples, refugees, and others worldwide who lack formal citizenship rights in the countries where they are living. Four UN agencies released a statement Tuesday that called for the protection of those at “heightened risk,” including “refugees, those forcibly displaced, the stateless and migrants.” According to the statement, “many refugees live in overcrowded camps, settlements, makeshift shelters or reception centres, where they lack adequate access to health services, clean water and sanitation.” Up to three-quarters of the world’s 70.8 million forcibly displaced people are hosted in countries where health systems are “already overwhelmed and under-capacitated.” As one example, the 10 cases and 1 death reported so far in war-torn Syria may be a sign of a bigger crisis to come, Mark Lowcock, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator told the Security Council, warned the UN Security Council in a meeting Monday. “That is the tip of the iceberg,” he said in a UN press release, warning that only half of Syria’s hospitals and primary health-care centres were fully functional at the end of 2019. And while the UN has assisted in rehabilitating the Central Public Health Laboratory, pre-positioning medical supplies, and upgrading isolation units around the country; the fragility of the health system and critical supply chains further complicate COVID-19 measures. Cross-border deliveries of aid supplies between Turkey and north-west Syria have more than doubled compared to the same period last year to 2150 trucks per day. Some US $340 million has so far been received by the UN Office of Humanitarian Affairs under a US $500 million funding call. Meanwhile, as confirmed cases soar beyond 12,000 in South America, indigenous tribes in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have taken matters into their own hands in the face of what they call “a historic danger,” as quoted in the Guardian. The Xingu people in Brazil have sealed off roads into their reserve and are urging locals to leave only for emergencies, as the country’s number of confirmed cases topped 5500 and deaths rose to over 200. In Colombia, which has almost 900 confirmed cases so far, tribes have been self-isolating and outlawing visits to their ancestral lands while collaborating with local governments to procure adequate supplies. Isolated tribes living in areas with fragile health systems, are particularly susceptible to acute, highly infectious diseases. Outbreaks of measles, smallpox and flu viruses had a long track record of “decimating” indigenous communities. Some countries are taking more widespread social welfare measures for vulnerable populations. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a US$24 billion welfare package to provide free food rations for 800 million disadvantaged people, cash transfers to 204 million poor women, and free cooking gas for 80 million households for the next 3 months. Health Experts Revisit Benefits of Wearing Masks in Public As the intensity of coronavirus infections rises in many parts of the world, health experts are beginning to reconsider whether the general public should wear face masks after all. Until now, the World Health Organization as well as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have recommended the use of face coverings only for the sick or for health workers treating those who might be ill. However, CDC director Robert Redfield said that this recommendation is currently under review. The US CDC recommendation under consideration would specifically recommend fabric masks, or do-it-yourself type masks for the general public, reports the Washington Post. Medical grade masks such as surgical masks or N95 respirators – which are in desperately short supply around the world – would still be restricted to use by healthcare workers. At his press briefing on Tuesday, even President Trump has encouraged the public to cover their faces with scarves when they go out, so that masks may be reserved for healthcare workers. “I can tell you that the data and this issue of whether it’s going to contribute [to prevention] is being aggressively reviewed as we speak,” Redfield told NPR in an interview. Many prominent healthcare experts have weighed in on the issue, including former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb. In a paper he published with American Enterprise Institute, a conservative US policy think tank, Gottlieb recommended supplementing social distancing measures with the widespread use of facemasks, citing the large numbers of asymptomatic cases that go undetected. “Face masks will be most effective at slowing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 if they are widely used, because they may help prevent people who are asymptomatically infected from transmitting the disease unknowingly”, says Gottlieb, citing South Korea and Hong Kong as places where facemasks were widely used, and managed to successfully control the outbreaks. Similarly, other individual experts have advocated for the use of facemasks as a socially responsible insurance policy. And countries are beginning to act as well. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday issued a new order that anyone leaving their homes should wear a mask “or other face covering”, making it the first country outside China to adopt mandatory mask usage while out in public. Hungary this week also ordered people visiting supermarkets to wear facemasks in order to risk infection spread in venues that often remain crowded with customers. Street scene in France. Universal masking being reconsidered. Tobacco Industry Joins the COVID-19 Vaccine Race British American Tobacco (BAT), the world’s second largest cigarette maker, announced that it would launch an effort to develop a COVID-19 vaccine using tobacco plants, joining a global effort that has generated over 90 potential vaccine candidates so far. Using plant-based production, the company claimed in a press release that between 1-3 million doses of vaccine could be manufactured per week by June. The process works by first identifying and cloning an antigen – an immune-response generating portion of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 – into a tobacco plant. The antigen can then be purified from grown and harvested tobacco plants in as little as 6 weeks. The tobacco plant production method was used by BAT’s US bio-tech subsidiary, Kentucky BioProcessing (KBP), to successfully manufacture the Ebola treatment ZMapp in 2014. “KBP has been exploring alternative uses of the tobacco plant for some time. One such alternative use is the development of plant-based vaccines,” said David O’Reilly, director of Scientific Research at BAT. “We are committed to contributing to the global effort to halt the spread of COVID-19 using this technology.” However, the SARS-CoV-2 antigen that would supposedly be purified and used for the production, is still being evaluated in preclinical tests. Image Credits: Samaritan's Purse, Wikimedia Commons: Alteo31300. Strong Age-Linked COVID-19 Death Risk Confirmed By Largest-Ever Study Of Chinese Population Infected 31/03/2020 Grace Ren, Svĕt Lustig Vijay & Elaine Ruth Fletcher A new study examining data from nearly 90% of mainland China’s confirmed COVID-19 cases found that the death rate among people older than 80 was 13.4%, as compared to only .32% for people under the age of 60. Almost one in five patients over the age of 80 were likely to require hospitalisation, as compared with around 1% of people under 30, according to an analysis of a subset of 3,665 cases. The analysis, published Tuesday in the Lancet Journal of Infectious Diseases is the first large-scale study to account for long-presumed underestimation of mild or asymptomatic cases in death rate and hospitalization rate estimates. It is also the first to include data on infections among Wuhan expats who were airlifted out of the city at the outset of the lockdown, as well as cases linked to the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While the crude case fatality rate was 3.67%, the authors estimated that the true average death rate, including milder, under-reported cases, was around 1.38%. Based on an analysis of cases among Wuhan expats, the authors also proposed that accounting for all COVID-19 infections could yield an even lower infection-fatality rate of about .66%. The Lancet study examined a total of 70,117 laboratory-confirmed and clinically-diagnosed cases in mainland China, or about 80% of cases reported there so far, as well as 689 positive cases among people evacuated from Wuhan on repatriation flights and cases identified on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While still considerably higher than the death rates for seasonal flu (.01%), the 1.38% average case fatality ratio is significantly lower than the crude case fatality ratios cited by most sources until now, including the World Health Organization. However, the authors’ assumptions about the widespread circulation of asymptomatic infections also contradicts another large-scale study that examined that issue. The report of some 320,000 Chinese in Guangdong Province, found that only .14% of people tested in fever clinic screenings were infected with the virus. It is therefore likely that the true rate of mild and asymptomatic infections will continue to be debated until more large-scale serological studies are undertaken. “Our estimates can be applied to any country to inform decisions around the best containment policies for COVID-19,” says Azra Ghani, an author on the paper and professor at the Imperial College London, UK, in a press release. “There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention, but our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalisation is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal.” However, the authors caution that up to 50% to 80% of the global population could be infected with COVID-19 in the absence of any interventions, meaning that the number of people needing hospital treatment is likely to overwhelm even the most advanced healthcare systems worldwide. According to The Lancet study, after adjusting for underreporting of mild cases, older adults faced the highest risk of requiring hospitalization from the infection at 18.4%, compared to an estimated hospitalization rate of 3.4% in people in their 30s, and 1% for people in their 20s. The Lancet study, however, still contrasts sharply with hospitalization and mortality data from confirmed cases in some hotspots such as Italy and the United States. In Italy, WHO officials reported that up to 50% of those hospitalized for COVID-19 are under the age of 50. A report released by the US Centers for Disease Control earlier this month found that 38% of hospitalized cases in the country were under the age of 55. Case fatality and hospitalization rates can “vary slightly from country to country because of differences in prevention, control, and mitigation policies implemented,” said Shigui Ruan, an infectious disease modeling researcher at the University of Miami in a separate Lancet Comment on the study. Thus, each country’s hospitalization and death rates are ” substantially affected by the preparedness and availability of health care,” he added. A separate study published Monday by Imperial College, London estimated that across 11 European countries “Non-pharmaceutical interventions” such as case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, widescale social distancing and national lockdowns helped avert up to 59,000 deaths by COVID-19. Between 7-43 million individuals had been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 as of 28 March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population, the study concluded. The attack rate – or rate of new infections – caused by the virus is estimated to be highest in Italy and Spain, and lowest in Germany and Norway. BARDA Branch Of US Health Agency Takes Over Clinical Trials for 2 Vaccine Candidates Meanwhile, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) branch of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said that it would take over late-stage development of the first COVID-19 vaccine candidate to enter Phase I clinical trials, mRNA-1273. The federal agency will also step in to support early development of another potential vaccine with an eye to rolling it out for emergency use in the US by early 2021. Originally created through a collaboration between Moderna, Inc and the US National Institute of Allergies and Infections Diseases (NIAID), the company will now shift to collaborating with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), to move mRNA-1273 through Phase II and Phase III clinical trials. 3D print of a spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus In a parallel development, BARDA will collaborate with the Janssen R&D arm of the US pharma firm, Johnson & Johnson (J&J), to accelerate non-clinical trials and Phase I trials of their investigational vaccine, Ad26 SARS-CoV-2. The Phase 1 clinical trial is set to begin no later than fall of 2020 with the goal of making the COVID-19 vaccine available for emergency use in the United States in early 2021. At the same time, the agency is collaborating with J&J to make plans to produce up to 300 million doses of the vaccine every year for use in the United States. “Delivering a safe and effective vaccine for a rapidly spreading disease like COVID-19 requires accelerated action with parallel development streams,” said the BARDA Director Rick Bright in a press release. BARDA, as part of the HHS, can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials. Setting up processes now to run late-phase clinical trials and scale-up manufacturing rather than taking the more traditional sequential approach to vaccine development could “shave months off the timeline for vaccine development,” the agency claims. BARDA can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials – although it remains to be seen whether the patent rights associated with any successfully developed vaccines will be held by the US government or private companies. Depending on the terms and type of contract signed, HHS can do “pretty much anything,” James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International (KEI) said in an interview with Health Policy Watch. As one example, HHS could use federal funds to “buy-out” patents to contribute to a global “pool” of intellectual property rights, according to one KEI blog. “HHS/BARDA should explain what the contractual terms for data and patent rights were,” added Love. Experts Say COVID-19 Casts Risks From Climate Change & Environmental Degradation in Sharp Relief Meanwhile, looking towards the future, a WHO COVID-19 Special Envoy and the leader of the UN Development Programme’s Health and Development Group, warned that the world needs to meet critical climate and sustainable development goals in order to prevent the recurrence of further COVID-19 pandemics. “Most outbreaks are zoonotic,” noted Mandeep Dhaliwal – Director of UNDP’s HIV, Health and Development Group, speaking at a webinar on Tuesday organized by the global group, Health Care Without Harm. “We talk a lot about health system preparedness, readiness, response. But missing from that conversation are the environmental factors that result from human activity that cause those outbreaks. These are not addressed so we keep lurching from one outbreak to another.” The coronavirus, which scientists believe originated in bats, was likely transmitted to humans by wild animals, possibly a pangolin, a species that is hunted illegally and sold in live animal markets throughout Asia. Similarly, viruses circulating among gorillas and chimpanzees in Africa, hunted and sold as bushmeat, are believed to have sparked the 2014-16 West African Ebola outbreak as well as the HIV/AIDS epidemic. “The pace of zoonotic outbreaks is going to increase, and is going to be magnified in the ways that you saw with COVID-19,” Dhaliwal predicted, until stronger linkages were made to prevent the patterns of ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, which intensify human contact with wild animals, leading to higher risks of zoonotic infections. Conversely, she noted that environmental health risks such as air pollution “also make people more vulnerable to COVID-19,” as do climate-related health risks such as climate-induced food and nutrition insecurity. “COVID 19 changes everything from the way we work as a global community,” she said. “We will not be able to ignore this anymore – we need to do something about the human activity that is driving this [zoonotic infections], and those actions will have to come from outside the health sector. We need integrated solutions to address the climate crisis and zoonotic outbreaks.” Said David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on COVID-19. “This is an issue that requires all of the approaches that we developed in the sustainable development agenda, interconnectedness, working across all parts of society. The principles of the sustainable development have to be at the center of what we are trying to do. But can leaders manage this, while still having their full attention on their people and the awful political trade-offs that they are having to make?” According to Health Care Without Harm, the worldwide pandemic and the climate crisis, are converging health emergencies. “With one, disease spreads like wildfire. And with the other, wildfires and other impacts, spread disease. While at first blush these two crises are not necessarily related to one another, there are a series of coronavirus – climate crisis connections that are worthwhile exploring, as they reveal several common causes, synergistic impacts and shared solutions.” Rate of New COVID-19 Infections Potentially Slowing Down in Europe Europe is still COVID-19’s epicentre, with almost 32 000 new cases since yesterday and over 2 500 new deaths. However, there were nearly 5000 fewer new cases in Europe reported on 30 March compared to 29 March, according to Monday night’s WHO situation report. Europe currently has 392,757 confirmed cases and 23,692 deaths. “Italy and Spain are potentially stabilizing and it is our fervent hope that this is the case. But we have to continue to push the virus down”, said Mike Ryan, executive director of the Health Emergencies Programme, at a WHO press conference yesterday. Donning gloves in the hospital storage room, Lecco, Lombardy. (Photo: Fabio Fadeli) Italy, which has about 13% of the world’s confirmed cases, is experiencing a decrease in new cases, with only 4000 new cases on the 30th of March compared to last week’s average of 5 500 new cases a day. Yesterday, the number of new cases in Spain was 6549 in comparison to 8189 new cases reported on the 29 March. To help respond to the unmet and urgent needs to tackle COVID-19, today, the Spanish government approved the distribution of 300 million euros to Spain’s Autonomous Regions. Israel may also be seeing a slowdown in the increase in cases. Israel which currently has 4831 cases, reported only 448 new cases yesterday compared to the weekend average of 606 new cases a day. Switzerland on Tuesday recorded 16176 cases and 373 total deaths, 701 more than the previous day. Some 78 new deaths were reported, marking the largest daily increase in deaths in the last seven days. Blood tests that are also able to detect asymptomatic cases are being developed and deployed both in Zurich and Geneva. The University Hospital in Zurich plans to test all incoming patients, whether ill or victims of accidents, to further detect new cases. The country is testing roughly 13,600 per million people, putting its per capita testing rate at higher than even South Korea. In the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Iran leads with a total of 40 000 total confirmed cases. In an unexpected move last week, Iran rescinded approval for Médecins Sans Frontieres’ (MSF) COVID-19 intervention in Isfahan. MSF’s charter planes, which were carrying material to build an inflatable 50-bed treatment unit, had already landed in Tehran. In the Americas, cases have steadily increased at about 21 000 new cases per day over the past two days. The USA, which has surpassed any other country in the world, has 164 610 confirmed cases as of today, 40% of which are in New York State. Yesterday, in a statement from New York’ Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Press Office, a new plan was announced to transfer patients between public and private hospitals to balance current demand with local capacity. Africa has confirmed 3486 cases, and has reported about 400 new cases a day. South Africa, which has about 40% of Africa’s cases, has experienced a dramatic reduction in new cases with a weekend average of 70, which is in stark comparison to numbers reported on 27 March, when the country peaked with 243 new cases. However, WHO experts have cautioned that low weekend reporting patterns and limited testing may lead to underestimates of the true case numbers in the continent. According to WHO’s daily situation report, there are 4048 cases in WHO’s Southeast Asia region as of Monday night. By Tuesday night, India, the most populous country in the region, had 1251 confirmed cases with 32 deaths. However, the country has one of the lowest testing rates in the world, at 32 tests per million. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 21-day lockdown, which began last Tuesday, has resulted in a mass exodus of daily wage migrant workers after losing their jobs and the order to return home. At least 22 deaths have been reportedly linked to the mass exodus. In anticipation of an upwards surge in cases, the Ministry of Railways has agreed to modify 20000 coaches into quarantine and isolation wards to supplement the country’s facilities. Total active of COVID-19 as of 7 p.m. CET 31 March. Right column shows confirmed cases. Numbers change rapidly. Gauri Saxena contributed to this story. Image Credits: NIAID, Johns Hopkins CSSE. WHO Nears $675 Million ‘Goal’ For COVID-19 Response – $622 Million Pledged 30/03/2020 Grace Ren & Svĕt Lustig Vijay WHO team of technical experts conclude a COVID-19 support mission to Egypt. The World Health Organization has received more than US $622 million of a US $675 million ask to fund WHO’s first Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan for COVID-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday. “We continue to be encouraged by the signs of global solidarity to confront and overcome this common threat,” said Dr Tedros, speaking at an afternoon press briefing. In a parallel development, Norway is leading an initiative to establish a multi-donor fund for the global COVID-19 response to assist developing countries, coordinating with the United Nations to launch the initiative within the next few days. “A multi-donor fund under UN auspices will provide predictability for our partners and help to make the efforts more effective,” said Minister of Foreign Affairs Ine Eriksen Søreide in a press release. ‘Experience from other crises shows that the earlier you start long-term response planning, the more precise and successful the effort becomes.” Unlike the UN Solidarity Fund, which is soliciting donations from individuals and private donors for the response, this fund will collate resources from major bilateral donors and international agencies, similar to the UN Ebola Response Fund set up in 2014 to address the emergency in West Africa. The fund will provide both immediate emergency aid to developing countries, and aid for longer term development initiatives to prop up weak health systems to prepare for future pandemics. In another meeting Monday with Ministers of Trade from the Group of 20 (G20) richest countries in the world, Dr Tedros also called on G20 countries to significantly their increase production of personal protective equipment (PPE), and ensure its equitable distribution of equipment around the world. “Specific attention should be given to low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America,” said Dr Tedros in a statement. “We call on countries to work with companies to increase production; to ensure the free movement of essential health products; and to ensure equitable distribution of those products, based on need.” However, hoarding and misappropriation of donated PPE equipment also may loom as a thorny problems that donors need to resolve. At the China-Uganda Friendship Referral Hospital near Kampala, one of three Ugandan reference hospitals for COVID-19 cases, health workers taking throat swabs from suspected COVID-19 patients and managing an isolation ward, lack basic protective gear except gloves, Health Policy Watch learned. N-95 masks must be purchased by the doctors and nurses out of pocket, and protective gowns and face shields are unavavilable. Gloves were provided by the hospital after workers threatened to strike, but when supplies run low, patients have to pay for those themselves before they are examined. WHO did not comment on the report. 154 NGOs Submit Open Letter Calling For Gilead To Retract Remdesivir Patent Applications Some 154 NGOs released an open letter Monday calling for Gilead Sciences to rescind its patent applications for remdesivir in 70 countries that could grant the company market exclusivity until 2031 on the experiemental drug, a promising potential COVID-19 treatment. The campaign, coordinated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), aligns closely with a growing movement within the medicines access community to push for mandatory “pooled” rights for COVID-19 technologies. In an unusual move, Gilead already asked the US FDA to rescind special “orphan drug” status for remdesivir last week after facing an intense public backlash, just days after recieving the designation. Orphan drug status would have granted Gilead an addition 7 years of market exclusivity. However, according to the MSF statement, the company still has pending patent applications for remdesivir in at least 70 other countries. “It is unacceptable for Gilead’s remdesivir to be put under the company’s exclusive control, taking into account that the drug was developed with considerable public funding for both early-stage research and clinical trials; the extraordinary efforts and personal risks that both healthcare workers and patients have faced in using the medicine in clinical trial settings; and the unprecedented disaster all countries are facing for their people, their healthcare systems, and their economies” said Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in a statement today. In the open letter, Gilead was urged to take immediate action in the public interest by declaring that it will drop all exclusive rights on patents, regulatory and trial data, as well as making all data required for development of generic drug versions publically available to enable their production and supply. Finally, Gilead was requested to improve its transparency by disclosing its existing supply and manufacturing capacity. “There is a further step to take, as a voluntary pool may not be sufficient, especially when the crisis intensity cools and public approbation for actions like Gilead’s Orphan designation abates,” said Paul Fehlner, President & CEO of reVision Therapeutics, in an interview with Health Policy Watch. “An entity dedicated to the public interest could obtain consequential legal exclusivities (Orphan drug designation, data and market exclusivity) and prevent opportunistic third parties from getting them”. According to Fehlner, creating a “pool” of rights would take minimum efforts, only requiring a willing coordinator to “aggregate data from ongoing trials worldwide and submit formal applications to health authorities.” “This crisis presents an immediate and urgent opportunity to wield the tools of exclusivity to promote access to medical products that may combat COVID-19,” said Fehlner. COVID-19 Trends As the United States now leads the world in coronavirus cases with 143,055 confirmed cases and 2,513 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins tracking database, President Trump extended the U.S. social distancing guidelines until the end of April, rescinding his earlier predictions that the lockdown would end by mid-April’s Easter holiday. Meanwhile, the UN donated 250,000 protective face masks to the USA from its New York headquarters to help combat the outbreak’s epicenter in New York. As the US is faced with rapidly increasing cases, inefficiencies from failed coronavirus tests, and shortage of ventilators, STATNews reports that the Genomics Institute led by Jennifer Doudna, the pioneer of CRISPR gene editing technology, will start running coronavirus tests in order to increase the turnaround time of testings in the San Francisco Bay Area. Over the weekend, Italy and Spain bolster efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus and flatten the curve. Italy, numbers 97,689 cases and 10,779 deaths, and Spain, numbers 85,195 cases and 7,340 deaths, have overtaken China’s 82,198 cases and 3,308 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins coronavirus tracking database. As infection increases, Italy has decided to extend its national lockdown beyond the April 3rd date while Spain tightens the national lockdown for all citizens, except for the workers in the essential sectors until April 9th. As the rate of infection within countries intensified, European countries began to depart from longstanding WHO guidance against the wearing of masks by the general public. Notably, Austria made masks obligatory for clients in supermarkets mandatory to curb airborne spread of the coronavirus amongst customers. Crowded supermarkets have been identified in a number of countries as nexus points for virus spread. However, until now, universal masking has only been practiced in Asia, while WHO repeatedly said the measure was unecessary elsewhere. The Hungarian Parliament, meanwhile, awarded wide-ranging powers to Prime Minister Viktor Orban for an indefinite period, to fight the pandemic, including curtailing free speech and other democratic rights. South-East and Western Asia In South-East Asia, the coronavirus was increasingly disrupting the lives of those living on the socioeconomic margins. After Prime Minister Modi’s surprise lockdown announcement, India’s daily wage earners struggle under the nationwide lockdown as many are stranded in cities without food, housing, and means of getting back home, particularly vulnerable are the Muslim minority who have been victims of recent riots over amendments to the naional citizenship bill. The challenges faced by the rural Indian migrants in the megacities post-lockdown has initiated one of the largest exodus of people back into the rural areas. Meanwhile, in the Western Pacific Region, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) postpones the Tokyo Summer Olympics to July 23rd, 2021 to August 8th, 2021. Online debates also continued to swirl around the degree of China’s influence on the WHO. On Sunday, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu tweeted a complaint referring a senior WHO official’s response to a question from a Hong Kong journalist, about whether WHO would reconsider Taiwan application for member state status. “Wow, can’t even utter ‘Taiwan’ in the WHO? You should set politics aside in dealing with a pandemic,” Wu wrote. Taiwan has accused WHO of ignoring its early warnings about the appearance of a novel coronavirus in mainland China, as well as brushing aside subsequent criticism that China repressed early news about the virus spread, which delayed a more systematic public health response. Overall, Europe continued to lead with half or more of the now active COVID-19 cases worldwide, followed by the United States. There were some 30,000 active cases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, including heavily hit Iran. South-East Asia was reporting nearly 3,600 active cases, and in WHO’s Africa region, there were more than 3,300 infections reported. In the Western Pacific Region, there were some 18,095 active cases, but only about 3,000 of those were in mainland China. Total cases of COVID-19 as of 8 p.m CET, with active case distribution globally. Numbers change rapidly. -Tsering Lhamo contributed to this report. Image Credits: WHO EMRO. ‘Anticipatory Anxiety’: Africa on Cusp of The COVID-19 Pandemic 30/03/2020 Kerry Cullinan Health workers in full protective gear do a COVID-19 throat swab in a Addis Ababa isolation centre. But in Kampala, Uganda, doctors have no suits and they must to purchae their own masks. CAPETOWN, South Africa – As many African countries opt for lockdowns to combat COVID-19, there is uncertainty over whether this will be enough to prevent the pandemic’s spread, or whether authorities will be able to implement this in overcrowded urban areas – as well as fears for patients with HIV, TB and other conditions that require monthly medication. There is a sense that Africans are on the shore watching the sea drawing back before the tsunami of infections hit, overwhelming the continent’s health facilities and killing thousands of people. In late February, just a handful of African countries had recorded a few COVID-19 cases. Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, with a high volume of air traffic from other affected regions of the world, were hit first. By yesterday (29 March), 4,282 cases of the virus had been recorded in 46 of the 54 African countries, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). WHO’s Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus recently warned the continent to “prepare for the worst”. African countries have been struggling to reconcile measures to arrest the virus, such as travel bans, social distancing and restricting public gatherings, with the need to protect their weak economies. More African Countries Using Lockdown Measures Amid the growing consensus that China’s reversal of its pandemic started from a lockdown, and this is the most effective way to reverse the pandemic, key African countries have opted for drastic measures to contain the virus in the past few days. Rwandans are in a 14-day lockdown which started on 22 March. Kenya has a night-time curfew and restrictions on gatherings. South Africa went into a 21-day total lockdown on Friday. Soweto, South Africa. Poverty and crowded conditions make lockdowns doubly difficult. “Those countries that have acted swiftly and dramatically have been far more effective in controlling the spread of the disease,” said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. “While this measure will have a considerable impact on people’s livelihoods, on the life of our society and on our economy, the human cost of delaying this action would be far, far greater.” The Democratic Republic of Congo implemented a four-day lockdown on Saturday, after the move had been delayed for a few days when the prices of essential goods spiked. Yesterday, Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari announced a 14-day lockdown for Lagos and Ogun state which comes into effect at 11pm Monday, 30 March. Ghanians living in Accra and Kumasi face a two-week lockdown from today. Zimbabweans also face a 21-day lockdown from today, and Lesotho citizens face a 25-day lockdown. Congo-Brazzaville goes into lockdown from tomorrow (Tuesday) and eight towns in Burkina Faso will be shut down from Friday for 14 days. However, implementing the lockdowns has proven challenging. South Africans may only leave their homes to buy basic groceries or medical supplies and there is a ban on the sale of alcohol. The South African National Defence Force has been brought in to support the police. Already, police used rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse shoppers in Johannesburg who were refusing to stand an arm’s length apart. Two Rwandans were reported to have been shot dead over the weekend, although that government subsequently denied that the shootings were related to the lockdown. Observers also fear that the heavy-handed application of lockdown measures, in the African context, will deprive people of access to food and essential services, including essential medical care. One worried Ugandan doctor who contacted Health Policy Watch related the story of an expectant mother living in a village some distance from Kampala, who had called him shortly after the country’s lockdown was announced on Monday, fearing that she was going into labour. “She has poor obstetric history,” he said. “A few days ago, she did an ultrasound scan that revealed a breech presentation. Her expected date of delivery is 3 April. She cannot access medical services since she is in the village, in a distance not walkable to the nearest facility where she can have ceaserian section done (if necessary). “‘I can not afford an ambulance because drivers often need fuel facilitation,’ she lamented. I was left speechless… She is opting to walk to the nearest traditional birth attendant for some magic. I felt this is worth sharing.” COVID-19 simulation exercise at the Kinshasa International Airport, Democratic Republic of Congo. Some Front-Line Health Workers Aren’t Getting PPE Supplies – Despite Massive WHO Shipments Meanwhile, epidemics experts are urging African governments to do whatever they can to protect the continent’s thin line of health workers. They urgently need personal protective equipment (PPE) such as masks, gloves and hand sanitiser. “But other measures are very important such as ventilation, spacing, early triage and separation of potential cases and increased access to water and supplies,” said Amanda McClelland, senior vice-president of PreventEpidemics, part of Vital Strategies’ Resolve to Save Lives programme. Dr Gilles van Cutsem, an infectious disease doctor and epidemiologist with Médicins sans Frontières (MSF), stressed that “there needs to be planning and preparation for screening and triage at health facilities to avoid overcrowding and saturation of hospitals, and ensure that hospitals do not become foci of transmission”. “In Italy and China triage tents were set up outside hospitals to receive and separate patients,” added van Cutsem. Meanwhile, HIV clinician Dr Francois Venter, deputy director of Reproductive Health and HIV Institute Johannesburg, urged those who are “mildly symptomatic” to stay away from health facilities to make sure that there is space for the very sick. Speaking after 14 days in quarantine, Venter said he had “anticipatory anxiety” as he waited for the deluge of patients. “I was almost disappointed that my [COVID-19] test was negative. For the first time in my life, I understand emotionally the relief that some of my gay clients expressed when they finally tested positive for HIV,” said Venter. While the WHO has reportedly sent large consignments of PPE to various African countries, shortages are still being reported all over the continent. There were only 60 N95masks distributed to some 280 health workers at China-Uganda Friendship Hospital near Kampala, a designated treatment facility for Covid-19 patients. Doctors and nurses performing COVID-19 tests have to purchase their own masks, according to one staff member, assigned to the COVID-19 isolation unit. That, despite the fact a WHO African “Readiness” Checklist showed Uganda to be equipped with masks and gloves. WHO Readiness Checklist shows Uganda equipped with PPE. Frontline health workers in Kampala isolation unit say they must buy their own masks. The hospital staff only received gloves after threatening to go on strike – although when gloves run short, patients are also asked to purchase them in order to be examined. When asked by Health Policy Watch about the reports of PPE shortages in Uganda’s COVID-19 units, WHO did not comment. Nor did it provide aggregate totals of PPE supplies that have been shipped to Africa until now. However, in a press briefing Monday, WHO Emergencies Head Mike Ryan said, “”We have already sent large numbers of PPE and diagnostics to the countries. It’s not enough. We are working with World Food Programme, Jack Ma Foundation, and Africa CDC to bring in PPE.” Jack Ma, founder of the Alibaba Group, is making a series of massive donations to regions across the world, including 1.1 million test kits, 6 million masks and 60,000 protective suits for Africa, which were due to begin distribution last week, according to Ethiopia’s Prime Minsiter, Abiy Ahmed Ali. Donations of PPE from by the Jack Ma Foundation land in Addis Ababa last week. McClelland recently returned from Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous African country, and has few illusions about the massive tasks that lie ahead: “There is still much more to do in Ethiopia to test and detect cases. The extent of transmission in this country with 105 million people is not really known.” There are two major challenges: preparing and training health workers – Ethiopia only has 19,000 – and engaging communities to change their personal behaviour to limit the spread. Sobering new data from Imperial College predicts that 250 critical care beds will be needed per 100, 000 people if the non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and restricting gatherings, are not successful in stemming the tide of infections. A recent report from Nigeria estimates that the country may only have around 500 ventilators for a population of over 200-million. Said Ryan, “The issue of ventilators is very important – but from the perspective of supporting patients, oxygen is also something we need to discuss.“Before ventilator support, what truly is lifesaving is the ability to give patients supplemental oxygen. When someone has COVID19 your lungs struggle to put oxygen in your blood. Every country in Africa has oxygen. We need to focus on getting better distribution of lifesaving oxygen. We are working to scale up the distribution of supplies and coordinate in a way that countries can expect a smooth service.” “Micro-Isolation” Tactics Used For Ebola May Help Contain COVID-19 While COVID-19 is a different kind of infection, with effects likely to eclipse the more deadly but less contagious diseases such as Ebola, the continent has learnt important lessons about epidemics from its experiences battling such viruses steadily, including during the 2014-2016 health emergency in West Africa, as well as the more 2018-2020 Ebola epidemic in DRC, now finally on the wane. While trying to contain Ebola, Guinea introduced a form of community quarantine called “micro-cerclage” (micro-encirclement) to limit the movement of people in Ebola-affected areas. Those showing symptoms of Ebola were placed in isolation while those close to them were asked to limit their movements. Limited essential movement – such as attending to crops – was allowed and was often monitored by people’s mobile phones. Amanda McCelelland, Prevent Epidemics Community leaders’ support for the policy was key, as were local response teams who enforced the monitoring. Affected households were also provided with food and basic toiletries. “Microcerclage is one approach that will potentially add real value to addressing COVID-19 but this will depend on the scale of community transmission,” says McClelland, who came face-to-face with Ebola while working in the Emergency Health Unit of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “If clusters can be detected early and isolated then this approach could help communities to not be negatively impacted and to continue to have access to key services and resources including food and water.” But a huge challenge is how to quarantine city dwellers. Over 20 million people live in crowded conditions in Lagos, five million live in Johannesburg and three million in Addis Ababa. “Self-isolation and restriction of population movement on a much larger scale in some cities would stretch the resources to be able to provide food, water and services on a citywide scale,” warned McClelland. Community Engagement Also Key Ebola also has negative lessons. “Without community engagement and trust, the outcomes can be devastating,” warned McClelland. “In the Ebola response, this tragically included violence against first responders. We must do everything we can to avoid this in the response to COVID-19.” In 2019 in the DRC alone, MSF recorded more than 300 attacks on Ebola health workers, during which six people were killed and 70 wounded. Stigmatising foreigners assumed to be infected with COVID-19 is already happening. On 18 March, the US embassy in Ethiopia issued a security alert warning of “a rise in anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19”. “Incidents of harassment and assault directly related to COVID-19 have been reported by other foreigners living within Addis Ababa and other cities throughout the country. Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones, denied transportation services, being spat on, chased on foot, and been accused of being infected with COVID-19,” according to the Embassy. Laboratory capacity has also been improved in many Ebola-affected countries, and Nigeria in particular has made substantial improvements in combating epidemics in the last few years. But Van Cutsem warned that the laboratory capacity of most African countries, aside from South Africa is “extremely poor”. “Countries have to find ways to improve the capacity of their laboratories to process tests, and we need the introduction of rapid tests,” said Van Cutsem. While some African leaders have speculated that the virus may not survive in high temperatures, McClelland simply says: “The short answer is we do not know yet. The science is still not clear. There is some evidence that, in a laboratory , the virus may be affected by warmer temperatures. But we also have transmission occurring in warm climates like Australia, the Middle East and South East Asia. Influenza transmits all year round in much of Africa and can actually be worse in dusty conditions. It is too early to assume Africa is protected due to heat and they must prepare with the same sense of urgency as other countries.” Hopes that the pandemic may be short-lived are not shared by experts who quietly talk about the current conditions continuing for many more months. “Settle down to this. Social isolation might be the new normal for the rest of the year. Look after your mental health, check in with people and be kind,” advises Venter. At the same time, in Africa, where large proportions of the population live below or on the verge of poverty, ensuring people’s basic needs during the COVID-19 emergency, will still remain the most fundamental priority, said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in a brieing Monday. “Some countries have strong social welfare systems, some countries don’t. I’m from Africa as you know, and I know some people have to work every single day to win their daily bread. And governments have to take this into account. If we are closing and limiting movement, what will happen to people who have to work on a daily basis? We don’t mean the effect as an average of GDP loss or general effect on the economy; we have to see what it means to an individual on the street.” – Kerry Cullinan is the health editor for openDemocracy 50.50, and based in South Africa. -Updated 31 March, 2020 Image Credits: Matt-80, © WHO/Otto B., © WHO/Kabambi E., Twitter: @AbiyAhmedAli , Vital Strategies , Courtesy of Kerry Cullinan. COVID-19 Testing Trends – Globally & Regionally 30/03/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 (HPW/Svet Lustig): How countries rank in COVID-19 tests/per million population. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Testing: the crux of effective outbreak responses Testing is an essential component of effective outbreak responses. Without widespread testing, we cannot know whether a disease is spreading nor take measures to appropriately respond to it. “All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded, they should know where the cases are, and that is how they can take decisions,” said Dr Tedros, WHO Director General. Health Policy Watch is tracking testing trends in countries around the world, based on data from FIND’s COVID-19 tracker. We display diagnostic capacity using two measures – cumulative testing by countries and trends showing change We have displayed the data using two measures: cumulative number of tests per million population, for all countries administering tests as of 28 March, and trends in selected countries over the past week. From the cumulative data, we can see how some countries, including Iceland, Bahrain, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland, far outpace other nations in terms of their rate of testing, per million people. We also see how many low and middle income countries across Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia still lack any significant test capacity, even while cases are rising. Importantly, we present testing data per million people to account for large population differences between countries. From the trends data, we can also see how countries such as Australia, Switzerland and the United States, have very rapidly ramped up testing over just the past week, while others, such as France and Great Britain, lag further behind. Testing Trends In Europe Within the past week, European countries such as Switzerland and the Czech Republic have doubled and tripled their testing capacity, respectively. Switzerland, which has one of the highest per-capita rates of infection in the world, has now administered 12,639 tests per million people. Countries like France and the UK, however, have not reported any changes in testing over the past week, with only 1,548 and 1,779 tests per million , respectively, despite increasingly high infection rates. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected countries of WHO’s European Region. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Americas Regions – High Income Australia has sharply increased its testing, with 8,134 tests per million on 28 March, double that of a week ago. While the USA has almost quadrupled its testing capacity in one week, it still has only administered a total of 2,032 tests per million, lagging behind many high-income regions. Trends covered are in selected high income countries of the region. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Western Pacific (WPRO), Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) and Americas (AMRO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. African, South-East Asian and Americas Regions – Low & Middle Income Trends here are for selected low- and middle-income coutnries that are testing significantly. In the African continent, South Africa leads with 539 tests per million. While South Africa’s testing capacity is still low in comparison to the rest of the world, this is still approximately double compared to last week. In Latin America, Chile has increased its testing five-fold for a cumulative total of 1209 tests per million; followed by Costa Rica, which has doubled its testing capacity to 600 tests per million. While testing capacity has almost doubled in India, as well, the country so far carried out only 20 tests per million people. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Americas (AMRO), African AMRO) and South East Asia (SEARO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. European Parliament Members Urge Open Licensing For COVID-19 Products Financed Through EU Grants 27/03/2020 Grace Ren Transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 (red), the virus that causes COVID-19 Some 33 Members of the European Parliament released an open letter Friday urging top leadership in the European Commission (EC) to prohibit exclusive licensing for COVID-19 products developed with European Union (EU) grants, and demanding transparency in the research and development pipeline to ensure affordability commitments are met. In a separate letter signed by 37 NGOs and over 50 experts in health and patent law, public health and medicine, called on the World Health Organization and all Member States to get behind Costa Rica’s initiative to “pool” COVID-19 patent rights for essential drugs, vaccines, and technologies. The letter was posted by Knowledge Ecology International, a global patent watchdog group. Those campaigns come right in the wake of the World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ Twitter endorsement of Costa Rica’s call to create the “pooled rights” initiative. “We cannot allow patients to be refused care because of financial constraints or shortages resulting from manufacturing or supply constraints,” said the Members of the European Parliament in the letter addressed to EC President Ursula Von Der Leyen; EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, and Youth, Mariya Gabriel; and EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner, Stella Kyriakides. Although the European Commission invests more than double of any private sector partner in EU-funded COVID-19 research, most of the calls for proposals so far do not seem to require companies or organizations to commit to affordability and access clauses, the MPs stated in their letter. Thus, it is even more important to enforce public oversight on the R&D process and bar exclusive licensing, they noted. For new products, companies should be required to commit to non-exclusive licensing on any developed health technology as a precondition for receiving EU funding, said the MPs. Granting exclusive licenses on new products could result in subsequent shortages, as only “one or very few companies” would be “allowed to produce an extremely timely medicine that is required in huge quantities worldwide,” the MPs stated. “From this moment forward, we require new medical tools to be immediately available once authorised for use, at an affordable price and in high enough quantities to meet global demand.” Responding to the calls, Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations warned that pooling patent rights would not likely enhance the global battle against the virus. “While voluntary pooling of intellectual property and other assets can be a tool to stimulate R&D and facilitate access under certain conditions, its effects to address the current pandemic will likely be very limited,” warned Cueni in a statement. “Tools already exist for governments to access the medicines they need, and they are already being used in a number of cases. “In addition, there are established organizations in place – such as the Medicines Patent Pool, a UN-backed initiative that uses a voluntary licensing and ‘pooled’ patent model to grant licenses to generics manufacturers – who have the expertise in licensing and managing an established pool of intellectual property assets,” Cueni added. As one such example, AbbVie Pharmaceuticals recently announced that it would offer through the Medicines Patent Pool licenses for its lopinavir/ritonavir drug combination without patent restrictions, after the HIV treatment was identified by the World Health Organization as one of the drug combinations to be tested in a multi-country trial against COVID-19. “Given the gravity and urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biopharmaceutical industry has not wasted any time or spared any effort in using its skills, technology and resources to bring safe and effective treatments, vaccines and diagnostic to patients around the world as a matter of utmost urgency,” added Cueni, pointing to a list of IFPMA commitments on the emergency. Civil Society Advocates Propose “Phased” Development of COVID-19 Patent Pool However, the proposed pool of patent rights for COVID-19 technologies would, in fact, build on the successes of the Medicines Patent Pool in expanding affordable access to medicines for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and hepatitis C, said Brook Baker, senior policy analyst at the Global Access Project, and a signatory on the KEI letter. “Simply put, no exclusive rights should stand in the way of governments’ and the global community’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Baker wrote in an opinion to Health Policy Watch on Costa Rica’s call to pool rights to drug development. To build agreement around the roll-out of a COVID-19 patent pool, the KEI letter also proposes a phased approach. An initial “phase-one” agreement would establish the minimum legal basis to permit such licensing in the future, and create a process for working out the details. Hammering out which technologies to share, the terms of authorization, and possible remuneration for the pooled licenses could be done at a later date, the KEI signatories suggest. However, the pool for COVID-19 products should go beyond medicines patents, per se, to address regulatory test data, research data, cell lines, basic science innovations, and other intellectual property, the signatories, including some 37 NGOs and 50 experts. Inputs to such a pool could come from governments that fund research and development or buy innovative products, as well as from universities, research institutes, charities, private companies and individuals who control rights, the letter suggests. In parallel moves, two other large NGOs, Médecins Sans Frontières and the Treatment Action Group released separate public statements Friday calling for national governments to prepare to override patent protections as well as to take other measures, such as enacting price controls, to ensure availability of COVID-19 medicines, vaccines, and other medical tools. TAG threw its weight behind the MSF call, earlier in the week, for a US $5 price tag on a rapid COVID-19 test that can be used on the GeneXpert TB platform, which has thousands of diagnostics instruments in Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia. “We know too well from our work around the world what it means to not be able to treat people in our care because a needed drug is just too expensive or simply not available,” said Dr Márcio da Fonseca, Infectious Disease Advisor at MSF’s Access Campaign in the statement. South Africa, one of the first middle-income countries to embrace the Cepheid COVID-19 test, announced that it will begin using the new GeneXpert COVID-19 tests to leverage the large network of over 180 machines in the country to ramp up rapid testing, as total confirmed cases in the country crossed the 1000 cases threshold. The first test cartridges will be available for use in April. Ad for generic lopinavir/ritonavir HIV drug combination, originally marketed as Kaletra by AbbVie, which relinquished its patent rights to the COVID-19 campaign First Patient in WHO’s COVID-19 SOLIDARITY Trial Enrolled in Norway At the University of Oslo Hospital in Norway, the first patient was enrolled Friday in WHO’s massive multi-country SOLIDARITY trial to collect data on potential COVID-19 treatments. This followed on an announcement by Prime Minister Erna Solberg of a 2.2 billion NOK (US$ 211) additional investment into the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) COVID-19 vaccine development efforts. That was in addition to a 1.6 billion NOK (US$ 153.6 million) investment in the Oslo-based CEPI vaccine efforts. “We are in a global quest for knowledge unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Noweigian Minister of Health Bent Høie in a press briefing. “We can save lives, protect healthcare professionals and all others from getting the disease.” The Norwegian SOLIDARITY trial patient will be the first to take part in this WHO-organized global effort to test four potential COVID-19 treatments under a simplified protocol, so that even low-resourced healthcare facilities could participate. The drugs to be tested include Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir; the lopinavir/ritonavir originally developed by AbbVie Inc. for HIV/AIDs along with beta interferon; as well as the anti-malarials chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. Another arm of the trial is also starting on Friday in Spain. The SOLIDARITY Trial began as global case counts surpassed half a million, and total deaths surged over 26,000. “These are tragic numbers,” said Dr Tedros. Some countries are already administering the medications ad-hoc on a compassionate use basis, as well as stockpiling for future mass use. But WHO’s Dr Tedros has cautioned against widespread use of such treatments without strong evidence – following media reports of people self-medicating with the substances or ones similarly named. One man in the United States, for instance, died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used in aquarium cleaning, following US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, according to the Associated Press. “We call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19,” said Dr Tedros. “The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn’t work in humans or were actually harmful.” In one example, he said that “during the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial. “We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.” Contrary to WHO’s cautious approach, a prominent bioethicist suggested a radical approach to fast-tracking vaccine development – purposefully infecting young healthy volunteers with the virus and seeing whether the vaccine protects against infection. In a preprint paper, Director of the Center for Population–Level Bioethics (CPLB) at Rutgers University Nir Eyal suggested that despite placing participants at risk of “severe disease and death”, such a ‘human challenge’ study design could “subtract many months” from the vaccine licensure process, reducing the global burden of coronavirus morbidity and mortality. COVID-19 cases worldwide as of Friday evening. Numbers change rapidly. Image Credits: NIAID. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts This site uses cookies to help give you the best experience on our website. Cookies enable us to collect information that helps us personalise your experience and improve the functionality and performance of our site. 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Strong Age-Linked COVID-19 Death Risk Confirmed By Largest-Ever Study Of Chinese Population Infected 31/03/2020 Grace Ren, Svĕt Lustig Vijay & Elaine Ruth Fletcher A new study examining data from nearly 90% of mainland China’s confirmed COVID-19 cases found that the death rate among people older than 80 was 13.4%, as compared to only .32% for people under the age of 60. Almost one in five patients over the age of 80 were likely to require hospitalisation, as compared with around 1% of people under 30, according to an analysis of a subset of 3,665 cases. The analysis, published Tuesday in the Lancet Journal of Infectious Diseases is the first large-scale study to account for long-presumed underestimation of mild or asymptomatic cases in death rate and hospitalization rate estimates. It is also the first to include data on infections among Wuhan expats who were airlifted out of the city at the outset of the lockdown, as well as cases linked to the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While the crude case fatality rate was 3.67%, the authors estimated that the true average death rate, including milder, under-reported cases, was around 1.38%. Based on an analysis of cases among Wuhan expats, the authors also proposed that accounting for all COVID-19 infections could yield an even lower infection-fatality rate of about .66%. The Lancet study examined a total of 70,117 laboratory-confirmed and clinically-diagnosed cases in mainland China, or about 80% of cases reported there so far, as well as 689 positive cases among people evacuated from Wuhan on repatriation flights and cases identified on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. While still considerably higher than the death rates for seasonal flu (.01%), the 1.38% average case fatality ratio is significantly lower than the crude case fatality ratios cited by most sources until now, including the World Health Organization. However, the authors’ assumptions about the widespread circulation of asymptomatic infections also contradicts another large-scale study that examined that issue. The report of some 320,000 Chinese in Guangdong Province, found that only .14% of people tested in fever clinic screenings were infected with the virus. It is therefore likely that the true rate of mild and asymptomatic infections will continue to be debated until more large-scale serological studies are undertaken. “Our estimates can be applied to any country to inform decisions around the best containment policies for COVID-19,” says Azra Ghani, an author on the paper and professor at the Imperial College London, UK, in a press release. “There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention, but our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalisation is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal.” However, the authors caution that up to 50% to 80% of the global population could be infected with COVID-19 in the absence of any interventions, meaning that the number of people needing hospital treatment is likely to overwhelm even the most advanced healthcare systems worldwide. According to The Lancet study, after adjusting for underreporting of mild cases, older adults faced the highest risk of requiring hospitalization from the infection at 18.4%, compared to an estimated hospitalization rate of 3.4% in people in their 30s, and 1% for people in their 20s. The Lancet study, however, still contrasts sharply with hospitalization and mortality data from confirmed cases in some hotspots such as Italy and the United States. In Italy, WHO officials reported that up to 50% of those hospitalized for COVID-19 are under the age of 50. A report released by the US Centers for Disease Control earlier this month found that 38% of hospitalized cases in the country were under the age of 55. Case fatality and hospitalization rates can “vary slightly from country to country because of differences in prevention, control, and mitigation policies implemented,” said Shigui Ruan, an infectious disease modeling researcher at the University of Miami in a separate Lancet Comment on the study. Thus, each country’s hospitalization and death rates are ” substantially affected by the preparedness and availability of health care,” he added. A separate study published Monday by Imperial College, London estimated that across 11 European countries “Non-pharmaceutical interventions” such as case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, widescale social distancing and national lockdowns helped avert up to 59,000 deaths by COVID-19. Between 7-43 million individuals had been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 as of 28 March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population, the study concluded. The attack rate – or rate of new infections – caused by the virus is estimated to be highest in Italy and Spain, and lowest in Germany and Norway. BARDA Branch Of US Health Agency Takes Over Clinical Trials for 2 Vaccine Candidates Meanwhile, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) branch of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said that it would take over late-stage development of the first COVID-19 vaccine candidate to enter Phase I clinical trials, mRNA-1273. The federal agency will also step in to support early development of another potential vaccine with an eye to rolling it out for emergency use in the US by early 2021. Originally created through a collaboration between Moderna, Inc and the US National Institute of Allergies and Infections Diseases (NIAID), the company will now shift to collaborating with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), to move mRNA-1273 through Phase II and Phase III clinical trials. 3D print of a spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus In a parallel development, BARDA will collaborate with the Janssen R&D arm of the US pharma firm, Johnson & Johnson (J&J), to accelerate non-clinical trials and Phase I trials of their investigational vaccine, Ad26 SARS-CoV-2. The Phase 1 clinical trial is set to begin no later than fall of 2020 with the goal of making the COVID-19 vaccine available for emergency use in the United States in early 2021. At the same time, the agency is collaborating with J&J to make plans to produce up to 300 million doses of the vaccine every year for use in the United States. “Delivering a safe and effective vaccine for a rapidly spreading disease like COVID-19 requires accelerated action with parallel development streams,” said the BARDA Director Rick Bright in a press release. BARDA, as part of the HHS, can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials. Setting up processes now to run late-phase clinical trials and scale-up manufacturing rather than taking the more traditional sequential approach to vaccine development could “shave months off the timeline for vaccine development,” the agency claims. BARDA can wield federal power to fund and coordinate manufacturing of the thousands of doses of investigational vaccine needed for clinical trials – although it remains to be seen whether the patent rights associated with any successfully developed vaccines will be held by the US government or private companies. Depending on the terms and type of contract signed, HHS can do “pretty much anything,” James Love, director of Knowledge Ecology International (KEI) said in an interview with Health Policy Watch. As one example, HHS could use federal funds to “buy-out” patents to contribute to a global “pool” of intellectual property rights, according to one KEI blog. “HHS/BARDA should explain what the contractual terms for data and patent rights were,” added Love. Experts Say COVID-19 Casts Risks From Climate Change & Environmental Degradation in Sharp Relief Meanwhile, looking towards the future, a WHO COVID-19 Special Envoy and the leader of the UN Development Programme’s Health and Development Group, warned that the world needs to meet critical climate and sustainable development goals in order to prevent the recurrence of further COVID-19 pandemics. “Most outbreaks are zoonotic,” noted Mandeep Dhaliwal – Director of UNDP’s HIV, Health and Development Group, speaking at a webinar on Tuesday organized by the global group, Health Care Without Harm. “We talk a lot about health system preparedness, readiness, response. But missing from that conversation are the environmental factors that result from human activity that cause those outbreaks. These are not addressed so we keep lurching from one outbreak to another.” The coronavirus, which scientists believe originated in bats, was likely transmitted to humans by wild animals, possibly a pangolin, a species that is hunted illegally and sold in live animal markets throughout Asia. Similarly, viruses circulating among gorillas and chimpanzees in Africa, hunted and sold as bushmeat, are believed to have sparked the 2014-16 West African Ebola outbreak as well as the HIV/AIDS epidemic. “The pace of zoonotic outbreaks is going to increase, and is going to be magnified in the ways that you saw with COVID-19,” Dhaliwal predicted, until stronger linkages were made to prevent the patterns of ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, which intensify human contact with wild animals, leading to higher risks of zoonotic infections. Conversely, she noted that environmental health risks such as air pollution “also make people more vulnerable to COVID-19,” as do climate-related health risks such as climate-induced food and nutrition insecurity. “COVID 19 changes everything from the way we work as a global community,” she said. “We will not be able to ignore this anymore – we need to do something about the human activity that is driving this [zoonotic infections], and those actions will have to come from outside the health sector. We need integrated solutions to address the climate crisis and zoonotic outbreaks.” Said David Nabarro, a WHO special envoy on COVID-19. “This is an issue that requires all of the approaches that we developed in the sustainable development agenda, interconnectedness, working across all parts of society. The principles of the sustainable development have to be at the center of what we are trying to do. But can leaders manage this, while still having their full attention on their people and the awful political trade-offs that they are having to make?” According to Health Care Without Harm, the worldwide pandemic and the climate crisis, are converging health emergencies. “With one, disease spreads like wildfire. And with the other, wildfires and other impacts, spread disease. While at first blush these two crises are not necessarily related to one another, there are a series of coronavirus – climate crisis connections that are worthwhile exploring, as they reveal several common causes, synergistic impacts and shared solutions.” Rate of New COVID-19 Infections Potentially Slowing Down in Europe Europe is still COVID-19’s epicentre, with almost 32 000 new cases since yesterday and over 2 500 new deaths. However, there were nearly 5000 fewer new cases in Europe reported on 30 March compared to 29 March, according to Monday night’s WHO situation report. Europe currently has 392,757 confirmed cases and 23,692 deaths. “Italy and Spain are potentially stabilizing and it is our fervent hope that this is the case. But we have to continue to push the virus down”, said Mike Ryan, executive director of the Health Emergencies Programme, at a WHO press conference yesterday. Donning gloves in the hospital storage room, Lecco, Lombardy. (Photo: Fabio Fadeli) Italy, which has about 13% of the world’s confirmed cases, is experiencing a decrease in new cases, with only 4000 new cases on the 30th of March compared to last week’s average of 5 500 new cases a day. Yesterday, the number of new cases in Spain was 6549 in comparison to 8189 new cases reported on the 29 March. To help respond to the unmet and urgent needs to tackle COVID-19, today, the Spanish government approved the distribution of 300 million euros to Spain’s Autonomous Regions. Israel may also be seeing a slowdown in the increase in cases. Israel which currently has 4831 cases, reported only 448 new cases yesterday compared to the weekend average of 606 new cases a day. Switzerland on Tuesday recorded 16176 cases and 373 total deaths, 701 more than the previous day. Some 78 new deaths were reported, marking the largest daily increase in deaths in the last seven days. Blood tests that are also able to detect asymptomatic cases are being developed and deployed both in Zurich and Geneva. The University Hospital in Zurich plans to test all incoming patients, whether ill or victims of accidents, to further detect new cases. The country is testing roughly 13,600 per million people, putting its per capita testing rate at higher than even South Korea. In the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Iran leads with a total of 40 000 total confirmed cases. In an unexpected move last week, Iran rescinded approval for Médecins Sans Frontieres’ (MSF) COVID-19 intervention in Isfahan. MSF’s charter planes, which were carrying material to build an inflatable 50-bed treatment unit, had already landed in Tehran. In the Americas, cases have steadily increased at about 21 000 new cases per day over the past two days. The USA, which has surpassed any other country in the world, has 164 610 confirmed cases as of today, 40% of which are in New York State. Yesterday, in a statement from New York’ Governor Andrew Cuomo’s Press Office, a new plan was announced to transfer patients between public and private hospitals to balance current demand with local capacity. Africa has confirmed 3486 cases, and has reported about 400 new cases a day. South Africa, which has about 40% of Africa’s cases, has experienced a dramatic reduction in new cases with a weekend average of 70, which is in stark comparison to numbers reported on 27 March, when the country peaked with 243 new cases. However, WHO experts have cautioned that low weekend reporting patterns and limited testing may lead to underestimates of the true case numbers in the continent. According to WHO’s daily situation report, there are 4048 cases in WHO’s Southeast Asia region as of Monday night. By Tuesday night, India, the most populous country in the region, had 1251 confirmed cases with 32 deaths. However, the country has one of the lowest testing rates in the world, at 32 tests per million. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 21-day lockdown, which began last Tuesday, has resulted in a mass exodus of daily wage migrant workers after losing their jobs and the order to return home. At least 22 deaths have been reportedly linked to the mass exodus. In anticipation of an upwards surge in cases, the Ministry of Railways has agreed to modify 20000 coaches into quarantine and isolation wards to supplement the country’s facilities. Total active of COVID-19 as of 7 p.m. CET 31 March. Right column shows confirmed cases. Numbers change rapidly. Gauri Saxena contributed to this story. Image Credits: NIAID, Johns Hopkins CSSE. WHO Nears $675 Million ‘Goal’ For COVID-19 Response – $622 Million Pledged 30/03/2020 Grace Ren & Svĕt Lustig Vijay WHO team of technical experts conclude a COVID-19 support mission to Egypt. The World Health Organization has received more than US $622 million of a US $675 million ask to fund WHO’s first Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan for COVID-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday. “We continue to be encouraged by the signs of global solidarity to confront and overcome this common threat,” said Dr Tedros, speaking at an afternoon press briefing. In a parallel development, Norway is leading an initiative to establish a multi-donor fund for the global COVID-19 response to assist developing countries, coordinating with the United Nations to launch the initiative within the next few days. “A multi-donor fund under UN auspices will provide predictability for our partners and help to make the efforts more effective,” said Minister of Foreign Affairs Ine Eriksen Søreide in a press release. ‘Experience from other crises shows that the earlier you start long-term response planning, the more precise and successful the effort becomes.” Unlike the UN Solidarity Fund, which is soliciting donations from individuals and private donors for the response, this fund will collate resources from major bilateral donors and international agencies, similar to the UN Ebola Response Fund set up in 2014 to address the emergency in West Africa. The fund will provide both immediate emergency aid to developing countries, and aid for longer term development initiatives to prop up weak health systems to prepare for future pandemics. In another meeting Monday with Ministers of Trade from the Group of 20 (G20) richest countries in the world, Dr Tedros also called on G20 countries to significantly their increase production of personal protective equipment (PPE), and ensure its equitable distribution of equipment around the world. “Specific attention should be given to low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America,” said Dr Tedros in a statement. “We call on countries to work with companies to increase production; to ensure the free movement of essential health products; and to ensure equitable distribution of those products, based on need.” However, hoarding and misappropriation of donated PPE equipment also may loom as a thorny problems that donors need to resolve. At the China-Uganda Friendship Referral Hospital near Kampala, one of three Ugandan reference hospitals for COVID-19 cases, health workers taking throat swabs from suspected COVID-19 patients and managing an isolation ward, lack basic protective gear except gloves, Health Policy Watch learned. N-95 masks must be purchased by the doctors and nurses out of pocket, and protective gowns and face shields are unavavilable. Gloves were provided by the hospital after workers threatened to strike, but when supplies run low, patients have to pay for those themselves before they are examined. WHO did not comment on the report. 154 NGOs Submit Open Letter Calling For Gilead To Retract Remdesivir Patent Applications Some 154 NGOs released an open letter Monday calling for Gilead Sciences to rescind its patent applications for remdesivir in 70 countries that could grant the company market exclusivity until 2031 on the experiemental drug, a promising potential COVID-19 treatment. The campaign, coordinated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), aligns closely with a growing movement within the medicines access community to push for mandatory “pooled” rights for COVID-19 technologies. In an unusual move, Gilead already asked the US FDA to rescind special “orphan drug” status for remdesivir last week after facing an intense public backlash, just days after recieving the designation. Orphan drug status would have granted Gilead an addition 7 years of market exclusivity. However, according to the MSF statement, the company still has pending patent applications for remdesivir in at least 70 other countries. “It is unacceptable for Gilead’s remdesivir to be put under the company’s exclusive control, taking into account that the drug was developed with considerable public funding for both early-stage research and clinical trials; the extraordinary efforts and personal risks that both healthcare workers and patients have faced in using the medicine in clinical trial settings; and the unprecedented disaster all countries are facing for their people, their healthcare systems, and their economies” said Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in a statement today. In the open letter, Gilead was urged to take immediate action in the public interest by declaring that it will drop all exclusive rights on patents, regulatory and trial data, as well as making all data required for development of generic drug versions publically available to enable their production and supply. Finally, Gilead was requested to improve its transparency by disclosing its existing supply and manufacturing capacity. “There is a further step to take, as a voluntary pool may not be sufficient, especially when the crisis intensity cools and public approbation for actions like Gilead’s Orphan designation abates,” said Paul Fehlner, President & CEO of reVision Therapeutics, in an interview with Health Policy Watch. “An entity dedicated to the public interest could obtain consequential legal exclusivities (Orphan drug designation, data and market exclusivity) and prevent opportunistic third parties from getting them”. According to Fehlner, creating a “pool” of rights would take minimum efforts, only requiring a willing coordinator to “aggregate data from ongoing trials worldwide and submit formal applications to health authorities.” “This crisis presents an immediate and urgent opportunity to wield the tools of exclusivity to promote access to medical products that may combat COVID-19,” said Fehlner. COVID-19 Trends As the United States now leads the world in coronavirus cases with 143,055 confirmed cases and 2,513 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins tracking database, President Trump extended the U.S. social distancing guidelines until the end of April, rescinding his earlier predictions that the lockdown would end by mid-April’s Easter holiday. Meanwhile, the UN donated 250,000 protective face masks to the USA from its New York headquarters to help combat the outbreak’s epicenter in New York. As the US is faced with rapidly increasing cases, inefficiencies from failed coronavirus tests, and shortage of ventilators, STATNews reports that the Genomics Institute led by Jennifer Doudna, the pioneer of CRISPR gene editing technology, will start running coronavirus tests in order to increase the turnaround time of testings in the San Francisco Bay Area. Over the weekend, Italy and Spain bolster efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus and flatten the curve. Italy, numbers 97,689 cases and 10,779 deaths, and Spain, numbers 85,195 cases and 7,340 deaths, have overtaken China’s 82,198 cases and 3,308 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins coronavirus tracking database. As infection increases, Italy has decided to extend its national lockdown beyond the April 3rd date while Spain tightens the national lockdown for all citizens, except for the workers in the essential sectors until April 9th. As the rate of infection within countries intensified, European countries began to depart from longstanding WHO guidance against the wearing of masks by the general public. Notably, Austria made masks obligatory for clients in supermarkets mandatory to curb airborne spread of the coronavirus amongst customers. Crowded supermarkets have been identified in a number of countries as nexus points for virus spread. However, until now, universal masking has only been practiced in Asia, while WHO repeatedly said the measure was unecessary elsewhere. The Hungarian Parliament, meanwhile, awarded wide-ranging powers to Prime Minister Viktor Orban for an indefinite period, to fight the pandemic, including curtailing free speech and other democratic rights. South-East and Western Asia In South-East Asia, the coronavirus was increasingly disrupting the lives of those living on the socioeconomic margins. After Prime Minister Modi’s surprise lockdown announcement, India’s daily wage earners struggle under the nationwide lockdown as many are stranded in cities without food, housing, and means of getting back home, particularly vulnerable are the Muslim minority who have been victims of recent riots over amendments to the naional citizenship bill. The challenges faced by the rural Indian migrants in the megacities post-lockdown has initiated one of the largest exodus of people back into the rural areas. Meanwhile, in the Western Pacific Region, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) postpones the Tokyo Summer Olympics to July 23rd, 2021 to August 8th, 2021. Online debates also continued to swirl around the degree of China’s influence on the WHO. On Sunday, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu tweeted a complaint referring a senior WHO official’s response to a question from a Hong Kong journalist, about whether WHO would reconsider Taiwan application for member state status. “Wow, can’t even utter ‘Taiwan’ in the WHO? You should set politics aside in dealing with a pandemic,” Wu wrote. Taiwan has accused WHO of ignoring its early warnings about the appearance of a novel coronavirus in mainland China, as well as brushing aside subsequent criticism that China repressed early news about the virus spread, which delayed a more systematic public health response. Overall, Europe continued to lead with half or more of the now active COVID-19 cases worldwide, followed by the United States. There were some 30,000 active cases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, including heavily hit Iran. South-East Asia was reporting nearly 3,600 active cases, and in WHO’s Africa region, there were more than 3,300 infections reported. In the Western Pacific Region, there were some 18,095 active cases, but only about 3,000 of those were in mainland China. Total cases of COVID-19 as of 8 p.m CET, with active case distribution globally. Numbers change rapidly. -Tsering Lhamo contributed to this report. Image Credits: WHO EMRO. ‘Anticipatory Anxiety’: Africa on Cusp of The COVID-19 Pandemic 30/03/2020 Kerry Cullinan Health workers in full protective gear do a COVID-19 throat swab in a Addis Ababa isolation centre. But in Kampala, Uganda, doctors have no suits and they must to purchae their own masks. CAPETOWN, South Africa – As many African countries opt for lockdowns to combat COVID-19, there is uncertainty over whether this will be enough to prevent the pandemic’s spread, or whether authorities will be able to implement this in overcrowded urban areas – as well as fears for patients with HIV, TB and other conditions that require monthly medication. There is a sense that Africans are on the shore watching the sea drawing back before the tsunami of infections hit, overwhelming the continent’s health facilities and killing thousands of people. In late February, just a handful of African countries had recorded a few COVID-19 cases. Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, with a high volume of air traffic from other affected regions of the world, were hit first. By yesterday (29 March), 4,282 cases of the virus had been recorded in 46 of the 54 African countries, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). WHO’s Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus recently warned the continent to “prepare for the worst”. African countries have been struggling to reconcile measures to arrest the virus, such as travel bans, social distancing and restricting public gatherings, with the need to protect their weak economies. More African Countries Using Lockdown Measures Amid the growing consensus that China’s reversal of its pandemic started from a lockdown, and this is the most effective way to reverse the pandemic, key African countries have opted for drastic measures to contain the virus in the past few days. Rwandans are in a 14-day lockdown which started on 22 March. Kenya has a night-time curfew and restrictions on gatherings. South Africa went into a 21-day total lockdown on Friday. Soweto, South Africa. Poverty and crowded conditions make lockdowns doubly difficult. “Those countries that have acted swiftly and dramatically have been far more effective in controlling the spread of the disease,” said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. “While this measure will have a considerable impact on people’s livelihoods, on the life of our society and on our economy, the human cost of delaying this action would be far, far greater.” The Democratic Republic of Congo implemented a four-day lockdown on Saturday, after the move had been delayed for a few days when the prices of essential goods spiked. Yesterday, Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari announced a 14-day lockdown for Lagos and Ogun state which comes into effect at 11pm Monday, 30 March. Ghanians living in Accra and Kumasi face a two-week lockdown from today. Zimbabweans also face a 21-day lockdown from today, and Lesotho citizens face a 25-day lockdown. Congo-Brazzaville goes into lockdown from tomorrow (Tuesday) and eight towns in Burkina Faso will be shut down from Friday for 14 days. However, implementing the lockdowns has proven challenging. South Africans may only leave their homes to buy basic groceries or medical supplies and there is a ban on the sale of alcohol. The South African National Defence Force has been brought in to support the police. Already, police used rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse shoppers in Johannesburg who were refusing to stand an arm’s length apart. Two Rwandans were reported to have been shot dead over the weekend, although that government subsequently denied that the shootings were related to the lockdown. Observers also fear that the heavy-handed application of lockdown measures, in the African context, will deprive people of access to food and essential services, including essential medical care. One worried Ugandan doctor who contacted Health Policy Watch related the story of an expectant mother living in a village some distance from Kampala, who had called him shortly after the country’s lockdown was announced on Monday, fearing that she was going into labour. “She has poor obstetric history,” he said. “A few days ago, she did an ultrasound scan that revealed a breech presentation. Her expected date of delivery is 3 April. She cannot access medical services since she is in the village, in a distance not walkable to the nearest facility where she can have ceaserian section done (if necessary). “‘I can not afford an ambulance because drivers often need fuel facilitation,’ she lamented. I was left speechless… She is opting to walk to the nearest traditional birth attendant for some magic. I felt this is worth sharing.” COVID-19 simulation exercise at the Kinshasa International Airport, Democratic Republic of Congo. Some Front-Line Health Workers Aren’t Getting PPE Supplies – Despite Massive WHO Shipments Meanwhile, epidemics experts are urging African governments to do whatever they can to protect the continent’s thin line of health workers. They urgently need personal protective equipment (PPE) such as masks, gloves and hand sanitiser. “But other measures are very important such as ventilation, spacing, early triage and separation of potential cases and increased access to water and supplies,” said Amanda McClelland, senior vice-president of PreventEpidemics, part of Vital Strategies’ Resolve to Save Lives programme. Dr Gilles van Cutsem, an infectious disease doctor and epidemiologist with Médicins sans Frontières (MSF), stressed that “there needs to be planning and preparation for screening and triage at health facilities to avoid overcrowding and saturation of hospitals, and ensure that hospitals do not become foci of transmission”. “In Italy and China triage tents were set up outside hospitals to receive and separate patients,” added van Cutsem. Meanwhile, HIV clinician Dr Francois Venter, deputy director of Reproductive Health and HIV Institute Johannesburg, urged those who are “mildly symptomatic” to stay away from health facilities to make sure that there is space for the very sick. Speaking after 14 days in quarantine, Venter said he had “anticipatory anxiety” as he waited for the deluge of patients. “I was almost disappointed that my [COVID-19] test was negative. For the first time in my life, I understand emotionally the relief that some of my gay clients expressed when they finally tested positive for HIV,” said Venter. While the WHO has reportedly sent large consignments of PPE to various African countries, shortages are still being reported all over the continent. There were only 60 N95masks distributed to some 280 health workers at China-Uganda Friendship Hospital near Kampala, a designated treatment facility for Covid-19 patients. Doctors and nurses performing COVID-19 tests have to purchase their own masks, according to one staff member, assigned to the COVID-19 isolation unit. That, despite the fact a WHO African “Readiness” Checklist showed Uganda to be equipped with masks and gloves. WHO Readiness Checklist shows Uganda equipped with PPE. Frontline health workers in Kampala isolation unit say they must buy their own masks. The hospital staff only received gloves after threatening to go on strike – although when gloves run short, patients are also asked to purchase them in order to be examined. When asked by Health Policy Watch about the reports of PPE shortages in Uganda’s COVID-19 units, WHO did not comment. Nor did it provide aggregate totals of PPE supplies that have been shipped to Africa until now. However, in a press briefing Monday, WHO Emergencies Head Mike Ryan said, “”We have already sent large numbers of PPE and diagnostics to the countries. It’s not enough. We are working with World Food Programme, Jack Ma Foundation, and Africa CDC to bring in PPE.” Jack Ma, founder of the Alibaba Group, is making a series of massive donations to regions across the world, including 1.1 million test kits, 6 million masks and 60,000 protective suits for Africa, which were due to begin distribution last week, according to Ethiopia’s Prime Minsiter, Abiy Ahmed Ali. Donations of PPE from by the Jack Ma Foundation land in Addis Ababa last week. McClelland recently returned from Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous African country, and has few illusions about the massive tasks that lie ahead: “There is still much more to do in Ethiopia to test and detect cases. The extent of transmission in this country with 105 million people is not really known.” There are two major challenges: preparing and training health workers – Ethiopia only has 19,000 – and engaging communities to change their personal behaviour to limit the spread. Sobering new data from Imperial College predicts that 250 critical care beds will be needed per 100, 000 people if the non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and restricting gatherings, are not successful in stemming the tide of infections. A recent report from Nigeria estimates that the country may only have around 500 ventilators for a population of over 200-million. Said Ryan, “The issue of ventilators is very important – but from the perspective of supporting patients, oxygen is also something we need to discuss.“Before ventilator support, what truly is lifesaving is the ability to give patients supplemental oxygen. When someone has COVID19 your lungs struggle to put oxygen in your blood. Every country in Africa has oxygen. We need to focus on getting better distribution of lifesaving oxygen. We are working to scale up the distribution of supplies and coordinate in a way that countries can expect a smooth service.” “Micro-Isolation” Tactics Used For Ebola May Help Contain COVID-19 While COVID-19 is a different kind of infection, with effects likely to eclipse the more deadly but less contagious diseases such as Ebola, the continent has learnt important lessons about epidemics from its experiences battling such viruses steadily, including during the 2014-2016 health emergency in West Africa, as well as the more 2018-2020 Ebola epidemic in DRC, now finally on the wane. While trying to contain Ebola, Guinea introduced a form of community quarantine called “micro-cerclage” (micro-encirclement) to limit the movement of people in Ebola-affected areas. Those showing symptoms of Ebola were placed in isolation while those close to them were asked to limit their movements. Limited essential movement – such as attending to crops – was allowed and was often monitored by people’s mobile phones. Amanda McCelelland, Prevent Epidemics Community leaders’ support for the policy was key, as were local response teams who enforced the monitoring. Affected households were also provided with food and basic toiletries. “Microcerclage is one approach that will potentially add real value to addressing COVID-19 but this will depend on the scale of community transmission,” says McClelland, who came face-to-face with Ebola while working in the Emergency Health Unit of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “If clusters can be detected early and isolated then this approach could help communities to not be negatively impacted and to continue to have access to key services and resources including food and water.” But a huge challenge is how to quarantine city dwellers. Over 20 million people live in crowded conditions in Lagos, five million live in Johannesburg and three million in Addis Ababa. “Self-isolation and restriction of population movement on a much larger scale in some cities would stretch the resources to be able to provide food, water and services on a citywide scale,” warned McClelland. Community Engagement Also Key Ebola also has negative lessons. “Without community engagement and trust, the outcomes can be devastating,” warned McClelland. “In the Ebola response, this tragically included violence against first responders. We must do everything we can to avoid this in the response to COVID-19.” In 2019 in the DRC alone, MSF recorded more than 300 attacks on Ebola health workers, during which six people were killed and 70 wounded. Stigmatising foreigners assumed to be infected with COVID-19 is already happening. On 18 March, the US embassy in Ethiopia issued a security alert warning of “a rise in anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19”. “Incidents of harassment and assault directly related to COVID-19 have been reported by other foreigners living within Addis Ababa and other cities throughout the country. Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones, denied transportation services, being spat on, chased on foot, and been accused of being infected with COVID-19,” according to the Embassy. Laboratory capacity has also been improved in many Ebola-affected countries, and Nigeria in particular has made substantial improvements in combating epidemics in the last few years. But Van Cutsem warned that the laboratory capacity of most African countries, aside from South Africa is “extremely poor”. “Countries have to find ways to improve the capacity of their laboratories to process tests, and we need the introduction of rapid tests,” said Van Cutsem. While some African leaders have speculated that the virus may not survive in high temperatures, McClelland simply says: “The short answer is we do not know yet. The science is still not clear. There is some evidence that, in a laboratory , the virus may be affected by warmer temperatures. But we also have transmission occurring in warm climates like Australia, the Middle East and South East Asia. Influenza transmits all year round in much of Africa and can actually be worse in dusty conditions. It is too early to assume Africa is protected due to heat and they must prepare with the same sense of urgency as other countries.” Hopes that the pandemic may be short-lived are not shared by experts who quietly talk about the current conditions continuing for many more months. “Settle down to this. Social isolation might be the new normal for the rest of the year. Look after your mental health, check in with people and be kind,” advises Venter. At the same time, in Africa, where large proportions of the population live below or on the verge of poverty, ensuring people’s basic needs during the COVID-19 emergency, will still remain the most fundamental priority, said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in a brieing Monday. “Some countries have strong social welfare systems, some countries don’t. I’m from Africa as you know, and I know some people have to work every single day to win their daily bread. And governments have to take this into account. If we are closing and limiting movement, what will happen to people who have to work on a daily basis? We don’t mean the effect as an average of GDP loss or general effect on the economy; we have to see what it means to an individual on the street.” – Kerry Cullinan is the health editor for openDemocracy 50.50, and based in South Africa. -Updated 31 March, 2020 Image Credits: Matt-80, © WHO/Otto B., © WHO/Kabambi E., Twitter: @AbiyAhmedAli , Vital Strategies , Courtesy of Kerry Cullinan. COVID-19 Testing Trends – Globally & Regionally 30/03/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 (HPW/Svet Lustig): How countries rank in COVID-19 tests/per million population. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Testing: the crux of effective outbreak responses Testing is an essential component of effective outbreak responses. Without widespread testing, we cannot know whether a disease is spreading nor take measures to appropriately respond to it. “All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded, they should know where the cases are, and that is how they can take decisions,” said Dr Tedros, WHO Director General. Health Policy Watch is tracking testing trends in countries around the world, based on data from FIND’s COVID-19 tracker. We display diagnostic capacity using two measures – cumulative testing by countries and trends showing change We have displayed the data using two measures: cumulative number of tests per million population, for all countries administering tests as of 28 March, and trends in selected countries over the past week. From the cumulative data, we can see how some countries, including Iceland, Bahrain, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland, far outpace other nations in terms of their rate of testing, per million people. We also see how many low and middle income countries across Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia still lack any significant test capacity, even while cases are rising. Importantly, we present testing data per million people to account for large population differences between countries. From the trends data, we can also see how countries such as Australia, Switzerland and the United States, have very rapidly ramped up testing over just the past week, while others, such as France and Great Britain, lag further behind. Testing Trends In Europe Within the past week, European countries such as Switzerland and the Czech Republic have doubled and tripled their testing capacity, respectively. Switzerland, which has one of the highest per-capita rates of infection in the world, has now administered 12,639 tests per million people. Countries like France and the UK, however, have not reported any changes in testing over the past week, with only 1,548 and 1,779 tests per million , respectively, despite increasingly high infection rates. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected countries of WHO’s European Region. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Americas Regions – High Income Australia has sharply increased its testing, with 8,134 tests per million on 28 March, double that of a week ago. While the USA has almost quadrupled its testing capacity in one week, it still has only administered a total of 2,032 tests per million, lagging behind many high-income regions. Trends covered are in selected high income countries of the region. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Western Pacific (WPRO), Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) and Americas (AMRO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. African, South-East Asian and Americas Regions – Low & Middle Income Trends here are for selected low- and middle-income coutnries that are testing significantly. In the African continent, South Africa leads with 539 tests per million. While South Africa’s testing capacity is still low in comparison to the rest of the world, this is still approximately double compared to last week. In Latin America, Chile has increased its testing five-fold for a cumulative total of 1209 tests per million; followed by Costa Rica, which has doubled its testing capacity to 600 tests per million. While testing capacity has almost doubled in India, as well, the country so far carried out only 20 tests per million people. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Americas (AMRO), African AMRO) and South East Asia (SEARO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. European Parliament Members Urge Open Licensing For COVID-19 Products Financed Through EU Grants 27/03/2020 Grace Ren Transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 (red), the virus that causes COVID-19 Some 33 Members of the European Parliament released an open letter Friday urging top leadership in the European Commission (EC) to prohibit exclusive licensing for COVID-19 products developed with European Union (EU) grants, and demanding transparency in the research and development pipeline to ensure affordability commitments are met. In a separate letter signed by 37 NGOs and over 50 experts in health and patent law, public health and medicine, called on the World Health Organization and all Member States to get behind Costa Rica’s initiative to “pool” COVID-19 patent rights for essential drugs, vaccines, and technologies. The letter was posted by Knowledge Ecology International, a global patent watchdog group. Those campaigns come right in the wake of the World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ Twitter endorsement of Costa Rica’s call to create the “pooled rights” initiative. “We cannot allow patients to be refused care because of financial constraints or shortages resulting from manufacturing or supply constraints,” said the Members of the European Parliament in the letter addressed to EC President Ursula Von Der Leyen; EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, and Youth, Mariya Gabriel; and EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner, Stella Kyriakides. Although the European Commission invests more than double of any private sector partner in EU-funded COVID-19 research, most of the calls for proposals so far do not seem to require companies or organizations to commit to affordability and access clauses, the MPs stated in their letter. Thus, it is even more important to enforce public oversight on the R&D process and bar exclusive licensing, they noted. For new products, companies should be required to commit to non-exclusive licensing on any developed health technology as a precondition for receiving EU funding, said the MPs. Granting exclusive licenses on new products could result in subsequent shortages, as only “one or very few companies” would be “allowed to produce an extremely timely medicine that is required in huge quantities worldwide,” the MPs stated. “From this moment forward, we require new medical tools to be immediately available once authorised for use, at an affordable price and in high enough quantities to meet global demand.” Responding to the calls, Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations warned that pooling patent rights would not likely enhance the global battle against the virus. “While voluntary pooling of intellectual property and other assets can be a tool to stimulate R&D and facilitate access under certain conditions, its effects to address the current pandemic will likely be very limited,” warned Cueni in a statement. “Tools already exist for governments to access the medicines they need, and they are already being used in a number of cases. “In addition, there are established organizations in place – such as the Medicines Patent Pool, a UN-backed initiative that uses a voluntary licensing and ‘pooled’ patent model to grant licenses to generics manufacturers – who have the expertise in licensing and managing an established pool of intellectual property assets,” Cueni added. As one such example, AbbVie Pharmaceuticals recently announced that it would offer through the Medicines Patent Pool licenses for its lopinavir/ritonavir drug combination without patent restrictions, after the HIV treatment was identified by the World Health Organization as one of the drug combinations to be tested in a multi-country trial against COVID-19. “Given the gravity and urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biopharmaceutical industry has not wasted any time or spared any effort in using its skills, technology and resources to bring safe and effective treatments, vaccines and diagnostic to patients around the world as a matter of utmost urgency,” added Cueni, pointing to a list of IFPMA commitments on the emergency. Civil Society Advocates Propose “Phased” Development of COVID-19 Patent Pool However, the proposed pool of patent rights for COVID-19 technologies would, in fact, build on the successes of the Medicines Patent Pool in expanding affordable access to medicines for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and hepatitis C, said Brook Baker, senior policy analyst at the Global Access Project, and a signatory on the KEI letter. “Simply put, no exclusive rights should stand in the way of governments’ and the global community’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Baker wrote in an opinion to Health Policy Watch on Costa Rica’s call to pool rights to drug development. To build agreement around the roll-out of a COVID-19 patent pool, the KEI letter also proposes a phased approach. An initial “phase-one” agreement would establish the minimum legal basis to permit such licensing in the future, and create a process for working out the details. Hammering out which technologies to share, the terms of authorization, and possible remuneration for the pooled licenses could be done at a later date, the KEI signatories suggest. However, the pool for COVID-19 products should go beyond medicines patents, per se, to address regulatory test data, research data, cell lines, basic science innovations, and other intellectual property, the signatories, including some 37 NGOs and 50 experts. Inputs to such a pool could come from governments that fund research and development or buy innovative products, as well as from universities, research institutes, charities, private companies and individuals who control rights, the letter suggests. In parallel moves, two other large NGOs, Médecins Sans Frontières and the Treatment Action Group released separate public statements Friday calling for national governments to prepare to override patent protections as well as to take other measures, such as enacting price controls, to ensure availability of COVID-19 medicines, vaccines, and other medical tools. TAG threw its weight behind the MSF call, earlier in the week, for a US $5 price tag on a rapid COVID-19 test that can be used on the GeneXpert TB platform, which has thousands of diagnostics instruments in Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia. “We know too well from our work around the world what it means to not be able to treat people in our care because a needed drug is just too expensive or simply not available,” said Dr Márcio da Fonseca, Infectious Disease Advisor at MSF’s Access Campaign in the statement. South Africa, one of the first middle-income countries to embrace the Cepheid COVID-19 test, announced that it will begin using the new GeneXpert COVID-19 tests to leverage the large network of over 180 machines in the country to ramp up rapid testing, as total confirmed cases in the country crossed the 1000 cases threshold. The first test cartridges will be available for use in April. Ad for generic lopinavir/ritonavir HIV drug combination, originally marketed as Kaletra by AbbVie, which relinquished its patent rights to the COVID-19 campaign First Patient in WHO’s COVID-19 SOLIDARITY Trial Enrolled in Norway At the University of Oslo Hospital in Norway, the first patient was enrolled Friday in WHO’s massive multi-country SOLIDARITY trial to collect data on potential COVID-19 treatments. This followed on an announcement by Prime Minister Erna Solberg of a 2.2 billion NOK (US$ 211) additional investment into the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) COVID-19 vaccine development efforts. That was in addition to a 1.6 billion NOK (US$ 153.6 million) investment in the Oslo-based CEPI vaccine efforts. “We are in a global quest for knowledge unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Noweigian Minister of Health Bent Høie in a press briefing. “We can save lives, protect healthcare professionals and all others from getting the disease.” The Norwegian SOLIDARITY trial patient will be the first to take part in this WHO-organized global effort to test four potential COVID-19 treatments under a simplified protocol, so that even low-resourced healthcare facilities could participate. The drugs to be tested include Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir; the lopinavir/ritonavir originally developed by AbbVie Inc. for HIV/AIDs along with beta interferon; as well as the anti-malarials chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. Another arm of the trial is also starting on Friday in Spain. The SOLIDARITY Trial began as global case counts surpassed half a million, and total deaths surged over 26,000. “These are tragic numbers,” said Dr Tedros. Some countries are already administering the medications ad-hoc on a compassionate use basis, as well as stockpiling for future mass use. But WHO’s Dr Tedros has cautioned against widespread use of such treatments without strong evidence – following media reports of people self-medicating with the substances or ones similarly named. One man in the United States, for instance, died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used in aquarium cleaning, following US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, according to the Associated Press. “We call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19,” said Dr Tedros. “The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn’t work in humans or were actually harmful.” In one example, he said that “during the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial. “We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.” Contrary to WHO’s cautious approach, a prominent bioethicist suggested a radical approach to fast-tracking vaccine development – purposefully infecting young healthy volunteers with the virus and seeing whether the vaccine protects against infection. In a preprint paper, Director of the Center for Population–Level Bioethics (CPLB) at Rutgers University Nir Eyal suggested that despite placing participants at risk of “severe disease and death”, such a ‘human challenge’ study design could “subtract many months” from the vaccine licensure process, reducing the global burden of coronavirus morbidity and mortality. COVID-19 cases worldwide as of Friday evening. Numbers change rapidly. Image Credits: NIAID. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts This site uses cookies to help give you the best experience on our website. Cookies enable us to collect information that helps us personalise your experience and improve the functionality and performance of our site. 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WHO Nears $675 Million ‘Goal’ For COVID-19 Response – $622 Million Pledged 30/03/2020 Grace Ren & Svĕt Lustig Vijay WHO team of technical experts conclude a COVID-19 support mission to Egypt. The World Health Organization has received more than US $622 million of a US $675 million ask to fund WHO’s first Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan for COVID-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday. “We continue to be encouraged by the signs of global solidarity to confront and overcome this common threat,” said Dr Tedros, speaking at an afternoon press briefing. In a parallel development, Norway is leading an initiative to establish a multi-donor fund for the global COVID-19 response to assist developing countries, coordinating with the United Nations to launch the initiative within the next few days. “A multi-donor fund under UN auspices will provide predictability for our partners and help to make the efforts more effective,” said Minister of Foreign Affairs Ine Eriksen Søreide in a press release. ‘Experience from other crises shows that the earlier you start long-term response planning, the more precise and successful the effort becomes.” Unlike the UN Solidarity Fund, which is soliciting donations from individuals and private donors for the response, this fund will collate resources from major bilateral donors and international agencies, similar to the UN Ebola Response Fund set up in 2014 to address the emergency in West Africa. The fund will provide both immediate emergency aid to developing countries, and aid for longer term development initiatives to prop up weak health systems to prepare for future pandemics. In another meeting Monday with Ministers of Trade from the Group of 20 (G20) richest countries in the world, Dr Tedros also called on G20 countries to significantly their increase production of personal protective equipment (PPE), and ensure its equitable distribution of equipment around the world. “Specific attention should be given to low- and middle-income countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America,” said Dr Tedros in a statement. “We call on countries to work with companies to increase production; to ensure the free movement of essential health products; and to ensure equitable distribution of those products, based on need.” However, hoarding and misappropriation of donated PPE equipment also may loom as a thorny problems that donors need to resolve. At the China-Uganda Friendship Referral Hospital near Kampala, one of three Ugandan reference hospitals for COVID-19 cases, health workers taking throat swabs from suspected COVID-19 patients and managing an isolation ward, lack basic protective gear except gloves, Health Policy Watch learned. N-95 masks must be purchased by the doctors and nurses out of pocket, and protective gowns and face shields are unavavilable. Gloves were provided by the hospital after workers threatened to strike, but when supplies run low, patients have to pay for those themselves before they are examined. WHO did not comment on the report. 154 NGOs Submit Open Letter Calling For Gilead To Retract Remdesivir Patent Applications Some 154 NGOs released an open letter Monday calling for Gilead Sciences to rescind its patent applications for remdesivir in 70 countries that could grant the company market exclusivity until 2031 on the experiemental drug, a promising potential COVID-19 treatment. The campaign, coordinated by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), aligns closely with a growing movement within the medicines access community to push for mandatory “pooled” rights for COVID-19 technologies. In an unusual move, Gilead already asked the US FDA to rescind special “orphan drug” status for remdesivir last week after facing an intense public backlash, just days after recieving the designation. Orphan drug status would have granted Gilead an addition 7 years of market exclusivity. However, according to the MSF statement, the company still has pending patent applications for remdesivir in at least 70 other countries. “It is unacceptable for Gilead’s remdesivir to be put under the company’s exclusive control, taking into account that the drug was developed with considerable public funding for both early-stage research and clinical trials; the extraordinary efforts and personal risks that both healthcare workers and patients have faced in using the medicine in clinical trial settings; and the unprecedented disaster all countries are facing for their people, their healthcare systems, and their economies” said Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) in a statement today. In the open letter, Gilead was urged to take immediate action in the public interest by declaring that it will drop all exclusive rights on patents, regulatory and trial data, as well as making all data required for development of generic drug versions publically available to enable their production and supply. Finally, Gilead was requested to improve its transparency by disclosing its existing supply and manufacturing capacity. “There is a further step to take, as a voluntary pool may not be sufficient, especially when the crisis intensity cools and public approbation for actions like Gilead’s Orphan designation abates,” said Paul Fehlner, President & CEO of reVision Therapeutics, in an interview with Health Policy Watch. “An entity dedicated to the public interest could obtain consequential legal exclusivities (Orphan drug designation, data and market exclusivity) and prevent opportunistic third parties from getting them”. According to Fehlner, creating a “pool” of rights would take minimum efforts, only requiring a willing coordinator to “aggregate data from ongoing trials worldwide and submit formal applications to health authorities.” “This crisis presents an immediate and urgent opportunity to wield the tools of exclusivity to promote access to medical products that may combat COVID-19,” said Fehlner. COVID-19 Trends As the United States now leads the world in coronavirus cases with 143,055 confirmed cases and 2,513 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins tracking database, President Trump extended the U.S. social distancing guidelines until the end of April, rescinding his earlier predictions that the lockdown would end by mid-April’s Easter holiday. Meanwhile, the UN donated 250,000 protective face masks to the USA from its New York headquarters to help combat the outbreak’s epicenter in New York. As the US is faced with rapidly increasing cases, inefficiencies from failed coronavirus tests, and shortage of ventilators, STATNews reports that the Genomics Institute led by Jennifer Doudna, the pioneer of CRISPR gene editing technology, will start running coronavirus tests in order to increase the turnaround time of testings in the San Francisco Bay Area. Over the weekend, Italy and Spain bolster efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus and flatten the curve. Italy, numbers 97,689 cases and 10,779 deaths, and Spain, numbers 85,195 cases and 7,340 deaths, have overtaken China’s 82,198 cases and 3,308 deaths according to the Johns Hopkins coronavirus tracking database. As infection increases, Italy has decided to extend its national lockdown beyond the April 3rd date while Spain tightens the national lockdown for all citizens, except for the workers in the essential sectors until April 9th. As the rate of infection within countries intensified, European countries began to depart from longstanding WHO guidance against the wearing of masks by the general public. Notably, Austria made masks obligatory for clients in supermarkets mandatory to curb airborne spread of the coronavirus amongst customers. Crowded supermarkets have been identified in a number of countries as nexus points for virus spread. However, until now, universal masking has only been practiced in Asia, while WHO repeatedly said the measure was unecessary elsewhere. The Hungarian Parliament, meanwhile, awarded wide-ranging powers to Prime Minister Viktor Orban for an indefinite period, to fight the pandemic, including curtailing free speech and other democratic rights. South-East and Western Asia In South-East Asia, the coronavirus was increasingly disrupting the lives of those living on the socioeconomic margins. After Prime Minister Modi’s surprise lockdown announcement, India’s daily wage earners struggle under the nationwide lockdown as many are stranded in cities without food, housing, and means of getting back home, particularly vulnerable are the Muslim minority who have been victims of recent riots over amendments to the naional citizenship bill. The challenges faced by the rural Indian migrants in the megacities post-lockdown has initiated one of the largest exodus of people back into the rural areas. Meanwhile, in the Western Pacific Region, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) postpones the Tokyo Summer Olympics to July 23rd, 2021 to August 8th, 2021. Online debates also continued to swirl around the degree of China’s influence on the WHO. On Sunday, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu tweeted a complaint referring a senior WHO official’s response to a question from a Hong Kong journalist, about whether WHO would reconsider Taiwan application for member state status. “Wow, can’t even utter ‘Taiwan’ in the WHO? You should set politics aside in dealing with a pandemic,” Wu wrote. Taiwan has accused WHO of ignoring its early warnings about the appearance of a novel coronavirus in mainland China, as well as brushing aside subsequent criticism that China repressed early news about the virus spread, which delayed a more systematic public health response. Overall, Europe continued to lead with half or more of the now active COVID-19 cases worldwide, followed by the United States. There were some 30,000 active cases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, including heavily hit Iran. South-East Asia was reporting nearly 3,600 active cases, and in WHO’s Africa region, there were more than 3,300 infections reported. In the Western Pacific Region, there were some 18,095 active cases, but only about 3,000 of those were in mainland China. Total cases of COVID-19 as of 8 p.m CET, with active case distribution globally. Numbers change rapidly. -Tsering Lhamo contributed to this report. Image Credits: WHO EMRO. ‘Anticipatory Anxiety’: Africa on Cusp of The COVID-19 Pandemic 30/03/2020 Kerry Cullinan Health workers in full protective gear do a COVID-19 throat swab in a Addis Ababa isolation centre. But in Kampala, Uganda, doctors have no suits and they must to purchae their own masks. CAPETOWN, South Africa – As many African countries opt for lockdowns to combat COVID-19, there is uncertainty over whether this will be enough to prevent the pandemic’s spread, or whether authorities will be able to implement this in overcrowded urban areas – as well as fears for patients with HIV, TB and other conditions that require monthly medication. There is a sense that Africans are on the shore watching the sea drawing back before the tsunami of infections hit, overwhelming the continent’s health facilities and killing thousands of people. In late February, just a handful of African countries had recorded a few COVID-19 cases. Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, with a high volume of air traffic from other affected regions of the world, were hit first. By yesterday (29 March), 4,282 cases of the virus had been recorded in 46 of the 54 African countries, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). WHO’s Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus recently warned the continent to “prepare for the worst”. African countries have been struggling to reconcile measures to arrest the virus, such as travel bans, social distancing and restricting public gatherings, with the need to protect their weak economies. More African Countries Using Lockdown Measures Amid the growing consensus that China’s reversal of its pandemic started from a lockdown, and this is the most effective way to reverse the pandemic, key African countries have opted for drastic measures to contain the virus in the past few days. Rwandans are in a 14-day lockdown which started on 22 March. Kenya has a night-time curfew and restrictions on gatherings. South Africa went into a 21-day total lockdown on Friday. Soweto, South Africa. Poverty and crowded conditions make lockdowns doubly difficult. “Those countries that have acted swiftly and dramatically have been far more effective in controlling the spread of the disease,” said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. “While this measure will have a considerable impact on people’s livelihoods, on the life of our society and on our economy, the human cost of delaying this action would be far, far greater.” The Democratic Republic of Congo implemented a four-day lockdown on Saturday, after the move had been delayed for a few days when the prices of essential goods spiked. Yesterday, Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari announced a 14-day lockdown for Lagos and Ogun state which comes into effect at 11pm Monday, 30 March. Ghanians living in Accra and Kumasi face a two-week lockdown from today. Zimbabweans also face a 21-day lockdown from today, and Lesotho citizens face a 25-day lockdown. Congo-Brazzaville goes into lockdown from tomorrow (Tuesday) and eight towns in Burkina Faso will be shut down from Friday for 14 days. However, implementing the lockdowns has proven challenging. South Africans may only leave their homes to buy basic groceries or medical supplies and there is a ban on the sale of alcohol. The South African National Defence Force has been brought in to support the police. Already, police used rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse shoppers in Johannesburg who were refusing to stand an arm’s length apart. Two Rwandans were reported to have been shot dead over the weekend, although that government subsequently denied that the shootings were related to the lockdown. Observers also fear that the heavy-handed application of lockdown measures, in the African context, will deprive people of access to food and essential services, including essential medical care. One worried Ugandan doctor who contacted Health Policy Watch related the story of an expectant mother living in a village some distance from Kampala, who had called him shortly after the country’s lockdown was announced on Monday, fearing that she was going into labour. “She has poor obstetric history,” he said. “A few days ago, she did an ultrasound scan that revealed a breech presentation. Her expected date of delivery is 3 April. She cannot access medical services since she is in the village, in a distance not walkable to the nearest facility where she can have ceaserian section done (if necessary). “‘I can not afford an ambulance because drivers often need fuel facilitation,’ she lamented. I was left speechless… She is opting to walk to the nearest traditional birth attendant for some magic. I felt this is worth sharing.” COVID-19 simulation exercise at the Kinshasa International Airport, Democratic Republic of Congo. Some Front-Line Health Workers Aren’t Getting PPE Supplies – Despite Massive WHO Shipments Meanwhile, epidemics experts are urging African governments to do whatever they can to protect the continent’s thin line of health workers. They urgently need personal protective equipment (PPE) such as masks, gloves and hand sanitiser. “But other measures are very important such as ventilation, spacing, early triage and separation of potential cases and increased access to water and supplies,” said Amanda McClelland, senior vice-president of PreventEpidemics, part of Vital Strategies’ Resolve to Save Lives programme. Dr Gilles van Cutsem, an infectious disease doctor and epidemiologist with Médicins sans Frontières (MSF), stressed that “there needs to be planning and preparation for screening and triage at health facilities to avoid overcrowding and saturation of hospitals, and ensure that hospitals do not become foci of transmission”. “In Italy and China triage tents were set up outside hospitals to receive and separate patients,” added van Cutsem. Meanwhile, HIV clinician Dr Francois Venter, deputy director of Reproductive Health and HIV Institute Johannesburg, urged those who are “mildly symptomatic” to stay away from health facilities to make sure that there is space for the very sick. Speaking after 14 days in quarantine, Venter said he had “anticipatory anxiety” as he waited for the deluge of patients. “I was almost disappointed that my [COVID-19] test was negative. For the first time in my life, I understand emotionally the relief that some of my gay clients expressed when they finally tested positive for HIV,” said Venter. While the WHO has reportedly sent large consignments of PPE to various African countries, shortages are still being reported all over the continent. There were only 60 N95masks distributed to some 280 health workers at China-Uganda Friendship Hospital near Kampala, a designated treatment facility for Covid-19 patients. Doctors and nurses performing COVID-19 tests have to purchase their own masks, according to one staff member, assigned to the COVID-19 isolation unit. That, despite the fact a WHO African “Readiness” Checklist showed Uganda to be equipped with masks and gloves. WHO Readiness Checklist shows Uganda equipped with PPE. Frontline health workers in Kampala isolation unit say they must buy their own masks. The hospital staff only received gloves after threatening to go on strike – although when gloves run short, patients are also asked to purchase them in order to be examined. When asked by Health Policy Watch about the reports of PPE shortages in Uganda’s COVID-19 units, WHO did not comment. Nor did it provide aggregate totals of PPE supplies that have been shipped to Africa until now. However, in a press briefing Monday, WHO Emergencies Head Mike Ryan said, “”We have already sent large numbers of PPE and diagnostics to the countries. It’s not enough. We are working with World Food Programme, Jack Ma Foundation, and Africa CDC to bring in PPE.” Jack Ma, founder of the Alibaba Group, is making a series of massive donations to regions across the world, including 1.1 million test kits, 6 million masks and 60,000 protective suits for Africa, which were due to begin distribution last week, according to Ethiopia’s Prime Minsiter, Abiy Ahmed Ali. Donations of PPE from by the Jack Ma Foundation land in Addis Ababa last week. McClelland recently returned from Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous African country, and has few illusions about the massive tasks that lie ahead: “There is still much more to do in Ethiopia to test and detect cases. The extent of transmission in this country with 105 million people is not really known.” There are two major challenges: preparing and training health workers – Ethiopia only has 19,000 – and engaging communities to change their personal behaviour to limit the spread. Sobering new data from Imperial College predicts that 250 critical care beds will be needed per 100, 000 people if the non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and restricting gatherings, are not successful in stemming the tide of infections. A recent report from Nigeria estimates that the country may only have around 500 ventilators for a population of over 200-million. Said Ryan, “The issue of ventilators is very important – but from the perspective of supporting patients, oxygen is also something we need to discuss.“Before ventilator support, what truly is lifesaving is the ability to give patients supplemental oxygen. When someone has COVID19 your lungs struggle to put oxygen in your blood. Every country in Africa has oxygen. We need to focus on getting better distribution of lifesaving oxygen. We are working to scale up the distribution of supplies and coordinate in a way that countries can expect a smooth service.” “Micro-Isolation” Tactics Used For Ebola May Help Contain COVID-19 While COVID-19 is a different kind of infection, with effects likely to eclipse the more deadly but less contagious diseases such as Ebola, the continent has learnt important lessons about epidemics from its experiences battling such viruses steadily, including during the 2014-2016 health emergency in West Africa, as well as the more 2018-2020 Ebola epidemic in DRC, now finally on the wane. While trying to contain Ebola, Guinea introduced a form of community quarantine called “micro-cerclage” (micro-encirclement) to limit the movement of people in Ebola-affected areas. Those showing symptoms of Ebola were placed in isolation while those close to them were asked to limit their movements. Limited essential movement – such as attending to crops – was allowed and was often monitored by people’s mobile phones. Amanda McCelelland, Prevent Epidemics Community leaders’ support for the policy was key, as were local response teams who enforced the monitoring. Affected households were also provided with food and basic toiletries. “Microcerclage is one approach that will potentially add real value to addressing COVID-19 but this will depend on the scale of community transmission,” says McClelland, who came face-to-face with Ebola while working in the Emergency Health Unit of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “If clusters can be detected early and isolated then this approach could help communities to not be negatively impacted and to continue to have access to key services and resources including food and water.” But a huge challenge is how to quarantine city dwellers. Over 20 million people live in crowded conditions in Lagos, five million live in Johannesburg and three million in Addis Ababa. “Self-isolation and restriction of population movement on a much larger scale in some cities would stretch the resources to be able to provide food, water and services on a citywide scale,” warned McClelland. Community Engagement Also Key Ebola also has negative lessons. “Without community engagement and trust, the outcomes can be devastating,” warned McClelland. “In the Ebola response, this tragically included violence against first responders. We must do everything we can to avoid this in the response to COVID-19.” In 2019 in the DRC alone, MSF recorded more than 300 attacks on Ebola health workers, during which six people were killed and 70 wounded. Stigmatising foreigners assumed to be infected with COVID-19 is already happening. On 18 March, the US embassy in Ethiopia issued a security alert warning of “a rise in anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19”. “Incidents of harassment and assault directly related to COVID-19 have been reported by other foreigners living within Addis Ababa and other cities throughout the country. Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones, denied transportation services, being spat on, chased on foot, and been accused of being infected with COVID-19,” according to the Embassy. Laboratory capacity has also been improved in many Ebola-affected countries, and Nigeria in particular has made substantial improvements in combating epidemics in the last few years. But Van Cutsem warned that the laboratory capacity of most African countries, aside from South Africa is “extremely poor”. “Countries have to find ways to improve the capacity of their laboratories to process tests, and we need the introduction of rapid tests,” said Van Cutsem. While some African leaders have speculated that the virus may not survive in high temperatures, McClelland simply says: “The short answer is we do not know yet. The science is still not clear. There is some evidence that, in a laboratory , the virus may be affected by warmer temperatures. But we also have transmission occurring in warm climates like Australia, the Middle East and South East Asia. Influenza transmits all year round in much of Africa and can actually be worse in dusty conditions. It is too early to assume Africa is protected due to heat and they must prepare with the same sense of urgency as other countries.” Hopes that the pandemic may be short-lived are not shared by experts who quietly talk about the current conditions continuing for many more months. “Settle down to this. Social isolation might be the new normal for the rest of the year. Look after your mental health, check in with people and be kind,” advises Venter. At the same time, in Africa, where large proportions of the population live below or on the verge of poverty, ensuring people’s basic needs during the COVID-19 emergency, will still remain the most fundamental priority, said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in a brieing Monday. “Some countries have strong social welfare systems, some countries don’t. I’m from Africa as you know, and I know some people have to work every single day to win their daily bread. And governments have to take this into account. If we are closing and limiting movement, what will happen to people who have to work on a daily basis? We don’t mean the effect as an average of GDP loss or general effect on the economy; we have to see what it means to an individual on the street.” – Kerry Cullinan is the health editor for openDemocracy 50.50, and based in South Africa. -Updated 31 March, 2020 Image Credits: Matt-80, © WHO/Otto B., © WHO/Kabambi E., Twitter: @AbiyAhmedAli , Vital Strategies , Courtesy of Kerry Cullinan. COVID-19 Testing Trends – Globally & Regionally 30/03/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 (HPW/Svet Lustig): How countries rank in COVID-19 tests/per million population. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Testing: the crux of effective outbreak responses Testing is an essential component of effective outbreak responses. Without widespread testing, we cannot know whether a disease is spreading nor take measures to appropriately respond to it. “All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded, they should know where the cases are, and that is how they can take decisions,” said Dr Tedros, WHO Director General. Health Policy Watch is tracking testing trends in countries around the world, based on data from FIND’s COVID-19 tracker. We display diagnostic capacity using two measures – cumulative testing by countries and trends showing change We have displayed the data using two measures: cumulative number of tests per million population, for all countries administering tests as of 28 March, and trends in selected countries over the past week. From the cumulative data, we can see how some countries, including Iceland, Bahrain, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland, far outpace other nations in terms of their rate of testing, per million people. We also see how many low and middle income countries across Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia still lack any significant test capacity, even while cases are rising. Importantly, we present testing data per million people to account for large population differences between countries. From the trends data, we can also see how countries such as Australia, Switzerland and the United States, have very rapidly ramped up testing over just the past week, while others, such as France and Great Britain, lag further behind. Testing Trends In Europe Within the past week, European countries such as Switzerland and the Czech Republic have doubled and tripled their testing capacity, respectively. Switzerland, which has one of the highest per-capita rates of infection in the world, has now administered 12,639 tests per million people. Countries like France and the UK, however, have not reported any changes in testing over the past week, with only 1,548 and 1,779 tests per million , respectively, despite increasingly high infection rates. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected countries of WHO’s European Region. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Americas Regions – High Income Australia has sharply increased its testing, with 8,134 tests per million on 28 March, double that of a week ago. While the USA has almost quadrupled its testing capacity in one week, it still has only administered a total of 2,032 tests per million, lagging behind many high-income regions. Trends covered are in selected high income countries of the region. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Western Pacific (WPRO), Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) and Americas (AMRO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. African, South-East Asian and Americas Regions – Low & Middle Income Trends here are for selected low- and middle-income coutnries that are testing significantly. In the African continent, South Africa leads with 539 tests per million. While South Africa’s testing capacity is still low in comparison to the rest of the world, this is still approximately double compared to last week. In Latin America, Chile has increased its testing five-fold for a cumulative total of 1209 tests per million; followed by Costa Rica, which has doubled its testing capacity to 600 tests per million. While testing capacity has almost doubled in India, as well, the country so far carried out only 20 tests per million people. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Americas (AMRO), African AMRO) and South East Asia (SEARO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. European Parliament Members Urge Open Licensing For COVID-19 Products Financed Through EU Grants 27/03/2020 Grace Ren Transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 (red), the virus that causes COVID-19 Some 33 Members of the European Parliament released an open letter Friday urging top leadership in the European Commission (EC) to prohibit exclusive licensing for COVID-19 products developed with European Union (EU) grants, and demanding transparency in the research and development pipeline to ensure affordability commitments are met. In a separate letter signed by 37 NGOs and over 50 experts in health and patent law, public health and medicine, called on the World Health Organization and all Member States to get behind Costa Rica’s initiative to “pool” COVID-19 patent rights for essential drugs, vaccines, and technologies. The letter was posted by Knowledge Ecology International, a global patent watchdog group. Those campaigns come right in the wake of the World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ Twitter endorsement of Costa Rica’s call to create the “pooled rights” initiative. “We cannot allow patients to be refused care because of financial constraints or shortages resulting from manufacturing or supply constraints,” said the Members of the European Parliament in the letter addressed to EC President Ursula Von Der Leyen; EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, and Youth, Mariya Gabriel; and EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner, Stella Kyriakides. Although the European Commission invests more than double of any private sector partner in EU-funded COVID-19 research, most of the calls for proposals so far do not seem to require companies or organizations to commit to affordability and access clauses, the MPs stated in their letter. Thus, it is even more important to enforce public oversight on the R&D process and bar exclusive licensing, they noted. For new products, companies should be required to commit to non-exclusive licensing on any developed health technology as a precondition for receiving EU funding, said the MPs. Granting exclusive licenses on new products could result in subsequent shortages, as only “one or very few companies” would be “allowed to produce an extremely timely medicine that is required in huge quantities worldwide,” the MPs stated. “From this moment forward, we require new medical tools to be immediately available once authorised for use, at an affordable price and in high enough quantities to meet global demand.” Responding to the calls, Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations warned that pooling patent rights would not likely enhance the global battle against the virus. “While voluntary pooling of intellectual property and other assets can be a tool to stimulate R&D and facilitate access under certain conditions, its effects to address the current pandemic will likely be very limited,” warned Cueni in a statement. “Tools already exist for governments to access the medicines they need, and they are already being used in a number of cases. “In addition, there are established organizations in place – such as the Medicines Patent Pool, a UN-backed initiative that uses a voluntary licensing and ‘pooled’ patent model to grant licenses to generics manufacturers – who have the expertise in licensing and managing an established pool of intellectual property assets,” Cueni added. As one such example, AbbVie Pharmaceuticals recently announced that it would offer through the Medicines Patent Pool licenses for its lopinavir/ritonavir drug combination without patent restrictions, after the HIV treatment was identified by the World Health Organization as one of the drug combinations to be tested in a multi-country trial against COVID-19. “Given the gravity and urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biopharmaceutical industry has not wasted any time or spared any effort in using its skills, technology and resources to bring safe and effective treatments, vaccines and diagnostic to patients around the world as a matter of utmost urgency,” added Cueni, pointing to a list of IFPMA commitments on the emergency. Civil Society Advocates Propose “Phased” Development of COVID-19 Patent Pool However, the proposed pool of patent rights for COVID-19 technologies would, in fact, build on the successes of the Medicines Patent Pool in expanding affordable access to medicines for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and hepatitis C, said Brook Baker, senior policy analyst at the Global Access Project, and a signatory on the KEI letter. “Simply put, no exclusive rights should stand in the way of governments’ and the global community’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Baker wrote in an opinion to Health Policy Watch on Costa Rica’s call to pool rights to drug development. To build agreement around the roll-out of a COVID-19 patent pool, the KEI letter also proposes a phased approach. An initial “phase-one” agreement would establish the minimum legal basis to permit such licensing in the future, and create a process for working out the details. Hammering out which technologies to share, the terms of authorization, and possible remuneration for the pooled licenses could be done at a later date, the KEI signatories suggest. However, the pool for COVID-19 products should go beyond medicines patents, per se, to address regulatory test data, research data, cell lines, basic science innovations, and other intellectual property, the signatories, including some 37 NGOs and 50 experts. Inputs to such a pool could come from governments that fund research and development or buy innovative products, as well as from universities, research institutes, charities, private companies and individuals who control rights, the letter suggests. In parallel moves, two other large NGOs, Médecins Sans Frontières and the Treatment Action Group released separate public statements Friday calling for national governments to prepare to override patent protections as well as to take other measures, such as enacting price controls, to ensure availability of COVID-19 medicines, vaccines, and other medical tools. TAG threw its weight behind the MSF call, earlier in the week, for a US $5 price tag on a rapid COVID-19 test that can be used on the GeneXpert TB platform, which has thousands of diagnostics instruments in Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia. “We know too well from our work around the world what it means to not be able to treat people in our care because a needed drug is just too expensive or simply not available,” said Dr Márcio da Fonseca, Infectious Disease Advisor at MSF’s Access Campaign in the statement. South Africa, one of the first middle-income countries to embrace the Cepheid COVID-19 test, announced that it will begin using the new GeneXpert COVID-19 tests to leverage the large network of over 180 machines in the country to ramp up rapid testing, as total confirmed cases in the country crossed the 1000 cases threshold. The first test cartridges will be available for use in April. Ad for generic lopinavir/ritonavir HIV drug combination, originally marketed as Kaletra by AbbVie, which relinquished its patent rights to the COVID-19 campaign First Patient in WHO’s COVID-19 SOLIDARITY Trial Enrolled in Norway At the University of Oslo Hospital in Norway, the first patient was enrolled Friday in WHO’s massive multi-country SOLIDARITY trial to collect data on potential COVID-19 treatments. This followed on an announcement by Prime Minister Erna Solberg of a 2.2 billion NOK (US$ 211) additional investment into the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) COVID-19 vaccine development efforts. That was in addition to a 1.6 billion NOK (US$ 153.6 million) investment in the Oslo-based CEPI vaccine efforts. “We are in a global quest for knowledge unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Noweigian Minister of Health Bent Høie in a press briefing. “We can save lives, protect healthcare professionals and all others from getting the disease.” The Norwegian SOLIDARITY trial patient will be the first to take part in this WHO-organized global effort to test four potential COVID-19 treatments under a simplified protocol, so that even low-resourced healthcare facilities could participate. The drugs to be tested include Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir; the lopinavir/ritonavir originally developed by AbbVie Inc. for HIV/AIDs along with beta interferon; as well as the anti-malarials chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. Another arm of the trial is also starting on Friday in Spain. The SOLIDARITY Trial began as global case counts surpassed half a million, and total deaths surged over 26,000. “These are tragic numbers,” said Dr Tedros. Some countries are already administering the medications ad-hoc on a compassionate use basis, as well as stockpiling for future mass use. But WHO’s Dr Tedros has cautioned against widespread use of such treatments without strong evidence – following media reports of people self-medicating with the substances or ones similarly named. One man in the United States, for instance, died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used in aquarium cleaning, following US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, according to the Associated Press. “We call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19,” said Dr Tedros. “The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn’t work in humans or were actually harmful.” In one example, he said that “during the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial. “We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.” Contrary to WHO’s cautious approach, a prominent bioethicist suggested a radical approach to fast-tracking vaccine development – purposefully infecting young healthy volunteers with the virus and seeing whether the vaccine protects against infection. In a preprint paper, Director of the Center for Population–Level Bioethics (CPLB) at Rutgers University Nir Eyal suggested that despite placing participants at risk of “severe disease and death”, such a ‘human challenge’ study design could “subtract many months” from the vaccine licensure process, reducing the global burden of coronavirus morbidity and mortality. COVID-19 cases worldwide as of Friday evening. Numbers change rapidly. Image Credits: NIAID. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts This site uses cookies to help give you the best experience on our website. Cookies enable us to collect information that helps us personalise your experience and improve the functionality and performance of our site. 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‘Anticipatory Anxiety’: Africa on Cusp of The COVID-19 Pandemic 30/03/2020 Kerry Cullinan Health workers in full protective gear do a COVID-19 throat swab in a Addis Ababa isolation centre. But in Kampala, Uganda, doctors have no suits and they must to purchae their own masks. CAPETOWN, South Africa – As many African countries opt for lockdowns to combat COVID-19, there is uncertainty over whether this will be enough to prevent the pandemic’s spread, or whether authorities will be able to implement this in overcrowded urban areas – as well as fears for patients with HIV, TB and other conditions that require monthly medication. There is a sense that Africans are on the shore watching the sea drawing back before the tsunami of infections hit, overwhelming the continent’s health facilities and killing thousands of people. In late February, just a handful of African countries had recorded a few COVID-19 cases. Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, with a high volume of air traffic from other affected regions of the world, were hit first. By yesterday (29 March), 4,282 cases of the virus had been recorded in 46 of the 54 African countries, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). WHO’s Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus recently warned the continent to “prepare for the worst”. African countries have been struggling to reconcile measures to arrest the virus, such as travel bans, social distancing and restricting public gatherings, with the need to protect their weak economies. More African Countries Using Lockdown Measures Amid the growing consensus that China’s reversal of its pandemic started from a lockdown, and this is the most effective way to reverse the pandemic, key African countries have opted for drastic measures to contain the virus in the past few days. Rwandans are in a 14-day lockdown which started on 22 March. Kenya has a night-time curfew and restrictions on gatherings. South Africa went into a 21-day total lockdown on Friday. Soweto, South Africa. Poverty and crowded conditions make lockdowns doubly difficult. “Those countries that have acted swiftly and dramatically have been far more effective in controlling the spread of the disease,” said South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. “While this measure will have a considerable impact on people’s livelihoods, on the life of our society and on our economy, the human cost of delaying this action would be far, far greater.” The Democratic Republic of Congo implemented a four-day lockdown on Saturday, after the move had been delayed for a few days when the prices of essential goods spiked. Yesterday, Nigeria’s president Muhammadu Buhari announced a 14-day lockdown for Lagos and Ogun state which comes into effect at 11pm Monday, 30 March. Ghanians living in Accra and Kumasi face a two-week lockdown from today. Zimbabweans also face a 21-day lockdown from today, and Lesotho citizens face a 25-day lockdown. Congo-Brazzaville goes into lockdown from tomorrow (Tuesday) and eight towns in Burkina Faso will be shut down from Friday for 14 days. However, implementing the lockdowns has proven challenging. South Africans may only leave their homes to buy basic groceries or medical supplies and there is a ban on the sale of alcohol. The South African National Defence Force has been brought in to support the police. Already, police used rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse shoppers in Johannesburg who were refusing to stand an arm’s length apart. Two Rwandans were reported to have been shot dead over the weekend, although that government subsequently denied that the shootings were related to the lockdown. Observers also fear that the heavy-handed application of lockdown measures, in the African context, will deprive people of access to food and essential services, including essential medical care. One worried Ugandan doctor who contacted Health Policy Watch related the story of an expectant mother living in a village some distance from Kampala, who had called him shortly after the country’s lockdown was announced on Monday, fearing that she was going into labour. “She has poor obstetric history,” he said. “A few days ago, she did an ultrasound scan that revealed a breech presentation. Her expected date of delivery is 3 April. She cannot access medical services since she is in the village, in a distance not walkable to the nearest facility where she can have ceaserian section done (if necessary). “‘I can not afford an ambulance because drivers often need fuel facilitation,’ she lamented. I was left speechless… She is opting to walk to the nearest traditional birth attendant for some magic. I felt this is worth sharing.” COVID-19 simulation exercise at the Kinshasa International Airport, Democratic Republic of Congo. Some Front-Line Health Workers Aren’t Getting PPE Supplies – Despite Massive WHO Shipments Meanwhile, epidemics experts are urging African governments to do whatever they can to protect the continent’s thin line of health workers. They urgently need personal protective equipment (PPE) such as masks, gloves and hand sanitiser. “But other measures are very important such as ventilation, spacing, early triage and separation of potential cases and increased access to water and supplies,” said Amanda McClelland, senior vice-president of PreventEpidemics, part of Vital Strategies’ Resolve to Save Lives programme. Dr Gilles van Cutsem, an infectious disease doctor and epidemiologist with Médicins sans Frontières (MSF), stressed that “there needs to be planning and preparation for screening and triage at health facilities to avoid overcrowding and saturation of hospitals, and ensure that hospitals do not become foci of transmission”. “In Italy and China triage tents were set up outside hospitals to receive and separate patients,” added van Cutsem. Meanwhile, HIV clinician Dr Francois Venter, deputy director of Reproductive Health and HIV Institute Johannesburg, urged those who are “mildly symptomatic” to stay away from health facilities to make sure that there is space for the very sick. Speaking after 14 days in quarantine, Venter said he had “anticipatory anxiety” as he waited for the deluge of patients. “I was almost disappointed that my [COVID-19] test was negative. For the first time in my life, I understand emotionally the relief that some of my gay clients expressed when they finally tested positive for HIV,” said Venter. While the WHO has reportedly sent large consignments of PPE to various African countries, shortages are still being reported all over the continent. There were only 60 N95masks distributed to some 280 health workers at China-Uganda Friendship Hospital near Kampala, a designated treatment facility for Covid-19 patients. Doctors and nurses performing COVID-19 tests have to purchase their own masks, according to one staff member, assigned to the COVID-19 isolation unit. That, despite the fact a WHO African “Readiness” Checklist showed Uganda to be equipped with masks and gloves. WHO Readiness Checklist shows Uganda equipped with PPE. Frontline health workers in Kampala isolation unit say they must buy their own masks. The hospital staff only received gloves after threatening to go on strike – although when gloves run short, patients are also asked to purchase them in order to be examined. When asked by Health Policy Watch about the reports of PPE shortages in Uganda’s COVID-19 units, WHO did not comment. Nor did it provide aggregate totals of PPE supplies that have been shipped to Africa until now. However, in a press briefing Monday, WHO Emergencies Head Mike Ryan said, “”We have already sent large numbers of PPE and diagnostics to the countries. It’s not enough. We are working with World Food Programme, Jack Ma Foundation, and Africa CDC to bring in PPE.” Jack Ma, founder of the Alibaba Group, is making a series of massive donations to regions across the world, including 1.1 million test kits, 6 million masks and 60,000 protective suits for Africa, which were due to begin distribution last week, according to Ethiopia’s Prime Minsiter, Abiy Ahmed Ali. Donations of PPE from by the Jack Ma Foundation land in Addis Ababa last week. McClelland recently returned from Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous African country, and has few illusions about the massive tasks that lie ahead: “There is still much more to do in Ethiopia to test and detect cases. The extent of transmission in this country with 105 million people is not really known.” There are two major challenges: preparing and training health workers – Ethiopia only has 19,000 – and engaging communities to change their personal behaviour to limit the spread. Sobering new data from Imperial College predicts that 250 critical care beds will be needed per 100, 000 people if the non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and restricting gatherings, are not successful in stemming the tide of infections. A recent report from Nigeria estimates that the country may only have around 500 ventilators for a population of over 200-million. Said Ryan, “The issue of ventilators is very important – but from the perspective of supporting patients, oxygen is also something we need to discuss.“Before ventilator support, what truly is lifesaving is the ability to give patients supplemental oxygen. When someone has COVID19 your lungs struggle to put oxygen in your blood. Every country in Africa has oxygen. We need to focus on getting better distribution of lifesaving oxygen. We are working to scale up the distribution of supplies and coordinate in a way that countries can expect a smooth service.” “Micro-Isolation” Tactics Used For Ebola May Help Contain COVID-19 While COVID-19 is a different kind of infection, with effects likely to eclipse the more deadly but less contagious diseases such as Ebola, the continent has learnt important lessons about epidemics from its experiences battling such viruses steadily, including during the 2014-2016 health emergency in West Africa, as well as the more 2018-2020 Ebola epidemic in DRC, now finally on the wane. While trying to contain Ebola, Guinea introduced a form of community quarantine called “micro-cerclage” (micro-encirclement) to limit the movement of people in Ebola-affected areas. Those showing symptoms of Ebola were placed in isolation while those close to them were asked to limit their movements. Limited essential movement – such as attending to crops – was allowed and was often monitored by people’s mobile phones. Amanda McCelelland, Prevent Epidemics Community leaders’ support for the policy was key, as were local response teams who enforced the monitoring. Affected households were also provided with food and basic toiletries. “Microcerclage is one approach that will potentially add real value to addressing COVID-19 but this will depend on the scale of community transmission,” says McClelland, who came face-to-face with Ebola while working in the Emergency Health Unit of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “If clusters can be detected early and isolated then this approach could help communities to not be negatively impacted and to continue to have access to key services and resources including food and water.” But a huge challenge is how to quarantine city dwellers. Over 20 million people live in crowded conditions in Lagos, five million live in Johannesburg and three million in Addis Ababa. “Self-isolation and restriction of population movement on a much larger scale in some cities would stretch the resources to be able to provide food, water and services on a citywide scale,” warned McClelland. Community Engagement Also Key Ebola also has negative lessons. “Without community engagement and trust, the outcomes can be devastating,” warned McClelland. “In the Ebola response, this tragically included violence against first responders. We must do everything we can to avoid this in the response to COVID-19.” In 2019 in the DRC alone, MSF recorded more than 300 attacks on Ebola health workers, during which six people were killed and 70 wounded. Stigmatising foreigners assumed to be infected with COVID-19 is already happening. On 18 March, the US embassy in Ethiopia issued a security alert warning of “a rise in anti-foreigner sentiment revolving around the announcement of COVID-19”. “Incidents of harassment and assault directly related to COVID-19 have been reported by other foreigners living within Addis Ababa and other cities throughout the country. Reports indicate that foreigners have been attacked with stones, denied transportation services, being spat on, chased on foot, and been accused of being infected with COVID-19,” according to the Embassy. Laboratory capacity has also been improved in many Ebola-affected countries, and Nigeria in particular has made substantial improvements in combating epidemics in the last few years. But Van Cutsem warned that the laboratory capacity of most African countries, aside from South Africa is “extremely poor”. “Countries have to find ways to improve the capacity of their laboratories to process tests, and we need the introduction of rapid tests,” said Van Cutsem. While some African leaders have speculated that the virus may not survive in high temperatures, McClelland simply says: “The short answer is we do not know yet. The science is still not clear. There is some evidence that, in a laboratory , the virus may be affected by warmer temperatures. But we also have transmission occurring in warm climates like Australia, the Middle East and South East Asia. Influenza transmits all year round in much of Africa and can actually be worse in dusty conditions. It is too early to assume Africa is protected due to heat and they must prepare with the same sense of urgency as other countries.” Hopes that the pandemic may be short-lived are not shared by experts who quietly talk about the current conditions continuing for many more months. “Settle down to this. Social isolation might be the new normal for the rest of the year. Look after your mental health, check in with people and be kind,” advises Venter. At the same time, in Africa, where large proportions of the population live below or on the verge of poverty, ensuring people’s basic needs during the COVID-19 emergency, will still remain the most fundamental priority, said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in a brieing Monday. “Some countries have strong social welfare systems, some countries don’t. I’m from Africa as you know, and I know some people have to work every single day to win their daily bread. And governments have to take this into account. If we are closing and limiting movement, what will happen to people who have to work on a daily basis? We don’t mean the effect as an average of GDP loss or general effect on the economy; we have to see what it means to an individual on the street.” – Kerry Cullinan is the health editor for openDemocracy 50.50, and based in South Africa. -Updated 31 March, 2020 Image Credits: Matt-80, © WHO/Otto B., © WHO/Kabambi E., Twitter: @AbiyAhmedAli , Vital Strategies , Courtesy of Kerry Cullinan. COVID-19 Testing Trends – Globally & Regionally 30/03/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 (HPW/Svet Lustig): How countries rank in COVID-19 tests/per million population. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Testing: the crux of effective outbreak responses Testing is an essential component of effective outbreak responses. Without widespread testing, we cannot know whether a disease is spreading nor take measures to appropriately respond to it. “All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded, they should know where the cases are, and that is how they can take decisions,” said Dr Tedros, WHO Director General. Health Policy Watch is tracking testing trends in countries around the world, based on data from FIND’s COVID-19 tracker. We display diagnostic capacity using two measures – cumulative testing by countries and trends showing change We have displayed the data using two measures: cumulative number of tests per million population, for all countries administering tests as of 28 March, and trends in selected countries over the past week. From the cumulative data, we can see how some countries, including Iceland, Bahrain, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland, far outpace other nations in terms of their rate of testing, per million people. We also see how many low and middle income countries across Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia still lack any significant test capacity, even while cases are rising. Importantly, we present testing data per million people to account for large population differences between countries. From the trends data, we can also see how countries such as Australia, Switzerland and the United States, have very rapidly ramped up testing over just the past week, while others, such as France and Great Britain, lag further behind. Testing Trends In Europe Within the past week, European countries such as Switzerland and the Czech Republic have doubled and tripled their testing capacity, respectively. Switzerland, which has one of the highest per-capita rates of infection in the world, has now administered 12,639 tests per million people. Countries like France and the UK, however, have not reported any changes in testing over the past week, with only 1,548 and 1,779 tests per million , respectively, despite increasingly high infection rates. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected countries of WHO’s European Region. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Americas Regions – High Income Australia has sharply increased its testing, with 8,134 tests per million on 28 March, double that of a week ago. While the USA has almost quadrupled its testing capacity in one week, it still has only administered a total of 2,032 tests per million, lagging behind many high-income regions. Trends covered are in selected high income countries of the region. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Western Pacific (WPRO), Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) and Americas (AMRO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. African, South-East Asian and Americas Regions – Low & Middle Income Trends here are for selected low- and middle-income coutnries that are testing significantly. In the African continent, South Africa leads with 539 tests per million. While South Africa’s testing capacity is still low in comparison to the rest of the world, this is still approximately double compared to last week. In Latin America, Chile has increased its testing five-fold for a cumulative total of 1209 tests per million; followed by Costa Rica, which has doubled its testing capacity to 600 tests per million. While testing capacity has almost doubled in India, as well, the country so far carried out only 20 tests per million people. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Americas (AMRO), African AMRO) and South East Asia (SEARO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. European Parliament Members Urge Open Licensing For COVID-19 Products Financed Through EU Grants 27/03/2020 Grace Ren Transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 (red), the virus that causes COVID-19 Some 33 Members of the European Parliament released an open letter Friday urging top leadership in the European Commission (EC) to prohibit exclusive licensing for COVID-19 products developed with European Union (EU) grants, and demanding transparency in the research and development pipeline to ensure affordability commitments are met. In a separate letter signed by 37 NGOs and over 50 experts in health and patent law, public health and medicine, called on the World Health Organization and all Member States to get behind Costa Rica’s initiative to “pool” COVID-19 patent rights for essential drugs, vaccines, and technologies. The letter was posted by Knowledge Ecology International, a global patent watchdog group. Those campaigns come right in the wake of the World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ Twitter endorsement of Costa Rica’s call to create the “pooled rights” initiative. “We cannot allow patients to be refused care because of financial constraints or shortages resulting from manufacturing or supply constraints,” said the Members of the European Parliament in the letter addressed to EC President Ursula Von Der Leyen; EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, and Youth, Mariya Gabriel; and EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner, Stella Kyriakides. Although the European Commission invests more than double of any private sector partner in EU-funded COVID-19 research, most of the calls for proposals so far do not seem to require companies or organizations to commit to affordability and access clauses, the MPs stated in their letter. Thus, it is even more important to enforce public oversight on the R&D process and bar exclusive licensing, they noted. For new products, companies should be required to commit to non-exclusive licensing on any developed health technology as a precondition for receiving EU funding, said the MPs. Granting exclusive licenses on new products could result in subsequent shortages, as only “one or very few companies” would be “allowed to produce an extremely timely medicine that is required in huge quantities worldwide,” the MPs stated. “From this moment forward, we require new medical tools to be immediately available once authorised for use, at an affordable price and in high enough quantities to meet global demand.” Responding to the calls, Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations warned that pooling patent rights would not likely enhance the global battle against the virus. “While voluntary pooling of intellectual property and other assets can be a tool to stimulate R&D and facilitate access under certain conditions, its effects to address the current pandemic will likely be very limited,” warned Cueni in a statement. “Tools already exist for governments to access the medicines they need, and they are already being used in a number of cases. “In addition, there are established organizations in place – such as the Medicines Patent Pool, a UN-backed initiative that uses a voluntary licensing and ‘pooled’ patent model to grant licenses to generics manufacturers – who have the expertise in licensing and managing an established pool of intellectual property assets,” Cueni added. As one such example, AbbVie Pharmaceuticals recently announced that it would offer through the Medicines Patent Pool licenses for its lopinavir/ritonavir drug combination without patent restrictions, after the HIV treatment was identified by the World Health Organization as one of the drug combinations to be tested in a multi-country trial against COVID-19. “Given the gravity and urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biopharmaceutical industry has not wasted any time or spared any effort in using its skills, technology and resources to bring safe and effective treatments, vaccines and diagnostic to patients around the world as a matter of utmost urgency,” added Cueni, pointing to a list of IFPMA commitments on the emergency. Civil Society Advocates Propose “Phased” Development of COVID-19 Patent Pool However, the proposed pool of patent rights for COVID-19 technologies would, in fact, build on the successes of the Medicines Patent Pool in expanding affordable access to medicines for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and hepatitis C, said Brook Baker, senior policy analyst at the Global Access Project, and a signatory on the KEI letter. “Simply put, no exclusive rights should stand in the way of governments’ and the global community’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Baker wrote in an opinion to Health Policy Watch on Costa Rica’s call to pool rights to drug development. To build agreement around the roll-out of a COVID-19 patent pool, the KEI letter also proposes a phased approach. An initial “phase-one” agreement would establish the minimum legal basis to permit such licensing in the future, and create a process for working out the details. Hammering out which technologies to share, the terms of authorization, and possible remuneration for the pooled licenses could be done at a later date, the KEI signatories suggest. However, the pool for COVID-19 products should go beyond medicines patents, per se, to address regulatory test data, research data, cell lines, basic science innovations, and other intellectual property, the signatories, including some 37 NGOs and 50 experts. Inputs to such a pool could come from governments that fund research and development or buy innovative products, as well as from universities, research institutes, charities, private companies and individuals who control rights, the letter suggests. In parallel moves, two other large NGOs, Médecins Sans Frontières and the Treatment Action Group released separate public statements Friday calling for national governments to prepare to override patent protections as well as to take other measures, such as enacting price controls, to ensure availability of COVID-19 medicines, vaccines, and other medical tools. TAG threw its weight behind the MSF call, earlier in the week, for a US $5 price tag on a rapid COVID-19 test that can be used on the GeneXpert TB platform, which has thousands of diagnostics instruments in Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia. “We know too well from our work around the world what it means to not be able to treat people in our care because a needed drug is just too expensive or simply not available,” said Dr Márcio da Fonseca, Infectious Disease Advisor at MSF’s Access Campaign in the statement. South Africa, one of the first middle-income countries to embrace the Cepheid COVID-19 test, announced that it will begin using the new GeneXpert COVID-19 tests to leverage the large network of over 180 machines in the country to ramp up rapid testing, as total confirmed cases in the country crossed the 1000 cases threshold. The first test cartridges will be available for use in April. Ad for generic lopinavir/ritonavir HIV drug combination, originally marketed as Kaletra by AbbVie, which relinquished its patent rights to the COVID-19 campaign First Patient in WHO’s COVID-19 SOLIDARITY Trial Enrolled in Norway At the University of Oslo Hospital in Norway, the first patient was enrolled Friday in WHO’s massive multi-country SOLIDARITY trial to collect data on potential COVID-19 treatments. This followed on an announcement by Prime Minister Erna Solberg of a 2.2 billion NOK (US$ 211) additional investment into the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) COVID-19 vaccine development efforts. That was in addition to a 1.6 billion NOK (US$ 153.6 million) investment in the Oslo-based CEPI vaccine efforts. “We are in a global quest for knowledge unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Noweigian Minister of Health Bent Høie in a press briefing. “We can save lives, protect healthcare professionals and all others from getting the disease.” The Norwegian SOLIDARITY trial patient will be the first to take part in this WHO-organized global effort to test four potential COVID-19 treatments under a simplified protocol, so that even low-resourced healthcare facilities could participate. The drugs to be tested include Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir; the lopinavir/ritonavir originally developed by AbbVie Inc. for HIV/AIDs along with beta interferon; as well as the anti-malarials chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. Another arm of the trial is also starting on Friday in Spain. The SOLIDARITY Trial began as global case counts surpassed half a million, and total deaths surged over 26,000. “These are tragic numbers,” said Dr Tedros. Some countries are already administering the medications ad-hoc on a compassionate use basis, as well as stockpiling for future mass use. But WHO’s Dr Tedros has cautioned against widespread use of such treatments without strong evidence – following media reports of people self-medicating with the substances or ones similarly named. One man in the United States, for instance, died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used in aquarium cleaning, following US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, according to the Associated Press. “We call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19,” said Dr Tedros. “The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn’t work in humans or were actually harmful.” In one example, he said that “during the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial. “We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.” Contrary to WHO’s cautious approach, a prominent bioethicist suggested a radical approach to fast-tracking vaccine development – purposefully infecting young healthy volunteers with the virus and seeing whether the vaccine protects against infection. In a preprint paper, Director of the Center for Population–Level Bioethics (CPLB) at Rutgers University Nir Eyal suggested that despite placing participants at risk of “severe disease and death”, such a ‘human challenge’ study design could “subtract many months” from the vaccine licensure process, reducing the global burden of coronavirus morbidity and mortality. COVID-19 cases worldwide as of Friday evening. Numbers change rapidly. Image Credits: NIAID. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts This site uses cookies to help give you the best experience on our website. Cookies enable us to collect information that helps us personalise your experience and improve the functionality and performance of our site. 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COVID-19 Testing Trends – Globally & Regionally 30/03/2020 Svĕt Lustig Vijay Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 Warning: Attempt to read property "post_title" on null in /home/clients/58f2a29976672af522a8f4d82ffa28b6/web/wp-content/plugins/better-image-credits/better-image-credits.php on line 227 (HPW/Svet Lustig): How countries rank in COVID-19 tests/per million population. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Testing: the crux of effective outbreak responses Testing is an essential component of effective outbreak responses. Without widespread testing, we cannot know whether a disease is spreading nor take measures to appropriately respond to it. “All countries should be able to test all suspected cases, they cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded, they should know where the cases are, and that is how they can take decisions,” said Dr Tedros, WHO Director General. Health Policy Watch is tracking testing trends in countries around the world, based on data from FIND’s COVID-19 tracker. We display diagnostic capacity using two measures – cumulative testing by countries and trends showing change We have displayed the data using two measures: cumulative number of tests per million population, for all countries administering tests as of 28 March, and trends in selected countries over the past week. From the cumulative data, we can see how some countries, including Iceland, Bahrain, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland, far outpace other nations in terms of their rate of testing, per million people. We also see how many low and middle income countries across Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia still lack any significant test capacity, even while cases are rising. Importantly, we present testing data per million people to account for large population differences between countries. From the trends data, we can also see how countries such as Australia, Switzerland and the United States, have very rapidly ramped up testing over just the past week, while others, such as France and Great Britain, lag further behind. Testing Trends In Europe Within the past week, European countries such as Switzerland and the Czech Republic have doubled and tripled their testing capacity, respectively. Switzerland, which has one of the highest per-capita rates of infection in the world, has now administered 12,639 tests per million people. Countries like France and the UK, however, have not reported any changes in testing over the past week, with only 1,548 and 1,779 tests per million , respectively, despite increasingly high infection rates. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected countries of WHO’s European Region. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. Western Pacific, Eastern Mediterranean and Americas Regions – High Income Australia has sharply increased its testing, with 8,134 tests per million on 28 March, double that of a week ago. While the USA has almost quadrupled its testing capacity in one week, it still has only administered a total of 2,032 tests per million, lagging behind many high-income regions. Trends covered are in selected high income countries of the region. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Western Pacific (WPRO), Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) and Americas (AMRO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. African, South-East Asian and Americas Regions – Low & Middle Income Trends here are for selected low- and middle-income coutnries that are testing significantly. In the African continent, South Africa leads with 539 tests per million. While South Africa’s testing capacity is still low in comparison to the rest of the world, this is still approximately double compared to last week. In Latin America, Chile has increased its testing five-fold for a cumulative total of 1209 tests per million; followed by Costa Rica, which has doubled its testing capacity to 600 tests per million. While testing capacity has almost doubled in India, as well, the country so far carried out only 20 tests per million people. (HPW/Svet Lustig): Trends in selected low- and middle-income countries of WHO’s Americas (AMRO), African AMRO) and South East Asia (SEARO) regions. Based on national test data collected by FIND (finddx.org), 28 March, 2020. European Parliament Members Urge Open Licensing For COVID-19 Products Financed Through EU Grants 27/03/2020 Grace Ren Transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 (red), the virus that causes COVID-19 Some 33 Members of the European Parliament released an open letter Friday urging top leadership in the European Commission (EC) to prohibit exclusive licensing for COVID-19 products developed with European Union (EU) grants, and demanding transparency in the research and development pipeline to ensure affordability commitments are met. In a separate letter signed by 37 NGOs and over 50 experts in health and patent law, public health and medicine, called on the World Health Organization and all Member States to get behind Costa Rica’s initiative to “pool” COVID-19 patent rights for essential drugs, vaccines, and technologies. The letter was posted by Knowledge Ecology International, a global patent watchdog group. Those campaigns come right in the wake of the World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ Twitter endorsement of Costa Rica’s call to create the “pooled rights” initiative. “We cannot allow patients to be refused care because of financial constraints or shortages resulting from manufacturing or supply constraints,” said the Members of the European Parliament in the letter addressed to EC President Ursula Von Der Leyen; EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, and Youth, Mariya Gabriel; and EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner, Stella Kyriakides. Although the European Commission invests more than double of any private sector partner in EU-funded COVID-19 research, most of the calls for proposals so far do not seem to require companies or organizations to commit to affordability and access clauses, the MPs stated in their letter. Thus, it is even more important to enforce public oversight on the R&D process and bar exclusive licensing, they noted. For new products, companies should be required to commit to non-exclusive licensing on any developed health technology as a precondition for receiving EU funding, said the MPs. Granting exclusive licenses on new products could result in subsequent shortages, as only “one or very few companies” would be “allowed to produce an extremely timely medicine that is required in huge quantities worldwide,” the MPs stated. “From this moment forward, we require new medical tools to be immediately available once authorised for use, at an affordable price and in high enough quantities to meet global demand.” Responding to the calls, Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations warned that pooling patent rights would not likely enhance the global battle against the virus. “While voluntary pooling of intellectual property and other assets can be a tool to stimulate R&D and facilitate access under certain conditions, its effects to address the current pandemic will likely be very limited,” warned Cueni in a statement. “Tools already exist for governments to access the medicines they need, and they are already being used in a number of cases. “In addition, there are established organizations in place – such as the Medicines Patent Pool, a UN-backed initiative that uses a voluntary licensing and ‘pooled’ patent model to grant licenses to generics manufacturers – who have the expertise in licensing and managing an established pool of intellectual property assets,” Cueni added. As one such example, AbbVie Pharmaceuticals recently announced that it would offer through the Medicines Patent Pool licenses for its lopinavir/ritonavir drug combination without patent restrictions, after the HIV treatment was identified by the World Health Organization as one of the drug combinations to be tested in a multi-country trial against COVID-19. “Given the gravity and urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biopharmaceutical industry has not wasted any time or spared any effort in using its skills, technology and resources to bring safe and effective treatments, vaccines and diagnostic to patients around the world as a matter of utmost urgency,” added Cueni, pointing to a list of IFPMA commitments on the emergency. Civil Society Advocates Propose “Phased” Development of COVID-19 Patent Pool However, the proposed pool of patent rights for COVID-19 technologies would, in fact, build on the successes of the Medicines Patent Pool in expanding affordable access to medicines for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and hepatitis C, said Brook Baker, senior policy analyst at the Global Access Project, and a signatory on the KEI letter. “Simply put, no exclusive rights should stand in the way of governments’ and the global community’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Baker wrote in an opinion to Health Policy Watch on Costa Rica’s call to pool rights to drug development. To build agreement around the roll-out of a COVID-19 patent pool, the KEI letter also proposes a phased approach. An initial “phase-one” agreement would establish the minimum legal basis to permit such licensing in the future, and create a process for working out the details. Hammering out which technologies to share, the terms of authorization, and possible remuneration for the pooled licenses could be done at a later date, the KEI signatories suggest. However, the pool for COVID-19 products should go beyond medicines patents, per se, to address regulatory test data, research data, cell lines, basic science innovations, and other intellectual property, the signatories, including some 37 NGOs and 50 experts. Inputs to such a pool could come from governments that fund research and development or buy innovative products, as well as from universities, research institutes, charities, private companies and individuals who control rights, the letter suggests. In parallel moves, two other large NGOs, Médecins Sans Frontières and the Treatment Action Group released separate public statements Friday calling for national governments to prepare to override patent protections as well as to take other measures, such as enacting price controls, to ensure availability of COVID-19 medicines, vaccines, and other medical tools. TAG threw its weight behind the MSF call, earlier in the week, for a US $5 price tag on a rapid COVID-19 test that can be used on the GeneXpert TB platform, which has thousands of diagnostics instruments in Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia. “We know too well from our work around the world what it means to not be able to treat people in our care because a needed drug is just too expensive or simply not available,” said Dr Márcio da Fonseca, Infectious Disease Advisor at MSF’s Access Campaign in the statement. South Africa, one of the first middle-income countries to embrace the Cepheid COVID-19 test, announced that it will begin using the new GeneXpert COVID-19 tests to leverage the large network of over 180 machines in the country to ramp up rapid testing, as total confirmed cases in the country crossed the 1000 cases threshold. The first test cartridges will be available for use in April. Ad for generic lopinavir/ritonavir HIV drug combination, originally marketed as Kaletra by AbbVie, which relinquished its patent rights to the COVID-19 campaign First Patient in WHO’s COVID-19 SOLIDARITY Trial Enrolled in Norway At the University of Oslo Hospital in Norway, the first patient was enrolled Friday in WHO’s massive multi-country SOLIDARITY trial to collect data on potential COVID-19 treatments. This followed on an announcement by Prime Minister Erna Solberg of a 2.2 billion NOK (US$ 211) additional investment into the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) COVID-19 vaccine development efforts. That was in addition to a 1.6 billion NOK (US$ 153.6 million) investment in the Oslo-based CEPI vaccine efforts. “We are in a global quest for knowledge unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Noweigian Minister of Health Bent Høie in a press briefing. “We can save lives, protect healthcare professionals and all others from getting the disease.” The Norwegian SOLIDARITY trial patient will be the first to take part in this WHO-organized global effort to test four potential COVID-19 treatments under a simplified protocol, so that even low-resourced healthcare facilities could participate. The drugs to be tested include Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir; the lopinavir/ritonavir originally developed by AbbVie Inc. for HIV/AIDs along with beta interferon; as well as the anti-malarials chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. Another arm of the trial is also starting on Friday in Spain. The SOLIDARITY Trial began as global case counts surpassed half a million, and total deaths surged over 26,000. “These are tragic numbers,” said Dr Tedros. Some countries are already administering the medications ad-hoc on a compassionate use basis, as well as stockpiling for future mass use. But WHO’s Dr Tedros has cautioned against widespread use of such treatments without strong evidence – following media reports of people self-medicating with the substances or ones similarly named. One man in the United States, for instance, died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used in aquarium cleaning, following US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, according to the Associated Press. “We call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19,” said Dr Tedros. “The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn’t work in humans or were actually harmful.” In one example, he said that “during the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial. “We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.” Contrary to WHO’s cautious approach, a prominent bioethicist suggested a radical approach to fast-tracking vaccine development – purposefully infecting young healthy volunteers with the virus and seeing whether the vaccine protects against infection. In a preprint paper, Director of the Center for Population–Level Bioethics (CPLB) at Rutgers University Nir Eyal suggested that despite placing participants at risk of “severe disease and death”, such a ‘human challenge’ study design could “subtract many months” from the vaccine licensure process, reducing the global burden of coronavirus morbidity and mortality. COVID-19 cases worldwide as of Friday evening. Numbers change rapidly. Image Credits: NIAID. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts This site uses cookies to help give you the best experience on our website. Cookies enable us to collect information that helps us personalise your experience and improve the functionality and performance of our site. 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European Parliament Members Urge Open Licensing For COVID-19 Products Financed Through EU Grants 27/03/2020 Grace Ren Transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 (red), the virus that causes COVID-19 Some 33 Members of the European Parliament released an open letter Friday urging top leadership in the European Commission (EC) to prohibit exclusive licensing for COVID-19 products developed with European Union (EU) grants, and demanding transparency in the research and development pipeline to ensure affordability commitments are met. In a separate letter signed by 37 NGOs and over 50 experts in health and patent law, public health and medicine, called on the World Health Organization and all Member States to get behind Costa Rica’s initiative to “pool” COVID-19 patent rights for essential drugs, vaccines, and technologies. The letter was posted by Knowledge Ecology International, a global patent watchdog group. Those campaigns come right in the wake of the World Health Organization Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ Twitter endorsement of Costa Rica’s call to create the “pooled rights” initiative. “We cannot allow patients to be refused care because of financial constraints or shortages resulting from manufacturing or supply constraints,” said the Members of the European Parliament in the letter addressed to EC President Ursula Von Der Leyen; EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, and Youth, Mariya Gabriel; and EU Health and Food Safety Commissioner, Stella Kyriakides. Although the European Commission invests more than double of any private sector partner in EU-funded COVID-19 research, most of the calls for proposals so far do not seem to require companies or organizations to commit to affordability and access clauses, the MPs stated in their letter. Thus, it is even more important to enforce public oversight on the R&D process and bar exclusive licensing, they noted. For new products, companies should be required to commit to non-exclusive licensing on any developed health technology as a precondition for receiving EU funding, said the MPs. Granting exclusive licenses on new products could result in subsequent shortages, as only “one or very few companies” would be “allowed to produce an extremely timely medicine that is required in huge quantities worldwide,” the MPs stated. “From this moment forward, we require new medical tools to be immediately available once authorised for use, at an affordable price and in high enough quantities to meet global demand.” Responding to the calls, Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations warned that pooling patent rights would not likely enhance the global battle against the virus. “While voluntary pooling of intellectual property and other assets can be a tool to stimulate R&D and facilitate access under certain conditions, its effects to address the current pandemic will likely be very limited,” warned Cueni in a statement. “Tools already exist for governments to access the medicines they need, and they are already being used in a number of cases. “In addition, there are established organizations in place – such as the Medicines Patent Pool, a UN-backed initiative that uses a voluntary licensing and ‘pooled’ patent model to grant licenses to generics manufacturers – who have the expertise in licensing and managing an established pool of intellectual property assets,” Cueni added. As one such example, AbbVie Pharmaceuticals recently announced that it would offer through the Medicines Patent Pool licenses for its lopinavir/ritonavir drug combination without patent restrictions, after the HIV treatment was identified by the World Health Organization as one of the drug combinations to be tested in a multi-country trial against COVID-19. “Given the gravity and urgency of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biopharmaceutical industry has not wasted any time or spared any effort in using its skills, technology and resources to bring safe and effective treatments, vaccines and diagnostic to patients around the world as a matter of utmost urgency,” added Cueni, pointing to a list of IFPMA commitments on the emergency. Civil Society Advocates Propose “Phased” Development of COVID-19 Patent Pool However, the proposed pool of patent rights for COVID-19 technologies would, in fact, build on the successes of the Medicines Patent Pool in expanding affordable access to medicines for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and hepatitis C, said Brook Baker, senior policy analyst at the Global Access Project, and a signatory on the KEI letter. “Simply put, no exclusive rights should stand in the way of governments’ and the global community’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Baker wrote in an opinion to Health Policy Watch on Costa Rica’s call to pool rights to drug development. To build agreement around the roll-out of a COVID-19 patent pool, the KEI letter also proposes a phased approach. An initial “phase-one” agreement would establish the minimum legal basis to permit such licensing in the future, and create a process for working out the details. Hammering out which technologies to share, the terms of authorization, and possible remuneration for the pooled licenses could be done at a later date, the KEI signatories suggest. However, the pool for COVID-19 products should go beyond medicines patents, per se, to address regulatory test data, research data, cell lines, basic science innovations, and other intellectual property, the signatories, including some 37 NGOs and 50 experts. Inputs to such a pool could come from governments that fund research and development or buy innovative products, as well as from universities, research institutes, charities, private companies and individuals who control rights, the letter suggests. In parallel moves, two other large NGOs, Médecins Sans Frontières and the Treatment Action Group released separate public statements Friday calling for national governments to prepare to override patent protections as well as to take other measures, such as enacting price controls, to ensure availability of COVID-19 medicines, vaccines, and other medical tools. TAG threw its weight behind the MSF call, earlier in the week, for a US $5 price tag on a rapid COVID-19 test that can be used on the GeneXpert TB platform, which has thousands of diagnostics instruments in Africa, Latin America and South-East Asia. “We know too well from our work around the world what it means to not be able to treat people in our care because a needed drug is just too expensive or simply not available,” said Dr Márcio da Fonseca, Infectious Disease Advisor at MSF’s Access Campaign in the statement. South Africa, one of the first middle-income countries to embrace the Cepheid COVID-19 test, announced that it will begin using the new GeneXpert COVID-19 tests to leverage the large network of over 180 machines in the country to ramp up rapid testing, as total confirmed cases in the country crossed the 1000 cases threshold. The first test cartridges will be available for use in April. Ad for generic lopinavir/ritonavir HIV drug combination, originally marketed as Kaletra by AbbVie, which relinquished its patent rights to the COVID-19 campaign First Patient in WHO’s COVID-19 SOLIDARITY Trial Enrolled in Norway At the University of Oslo Hospital in Norway, the first patient was enrolled Friday in WHO’s massive multi-country SOLIDARITY trial to collect data on potential COVID-19 treatments. This followed on an announcement by Prime Minister Erna Solberg of a 2.2 billion NOK (US$ 211) additional investment into the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) COVID-19 vaccine development efforts. That was in addition to a 1.6 billion NOK (US$ 153.6 million) investment in the Oslo-based CEPI vaccine efforts. “We are in a global quest for knowledge unlike anything we’ve ever seen,” said Noweigian Minister of Health Bent Høie in a press briefing. “We can save lives, protect healthcare professionals and all others from getting the disease.” The Norwegian SOLIDARITY trial patient will be the first to take part in this WHO-organized global effort to test four potential COVID-19 treatments under a simplified protocol, so that even low-resourced healthcare facilities could participate. The drugs to be tested include Gilead’s experimental drug remdesivir; the lopinavir/ritonavir originally developed by AbbVie Inc. for HIV/AIDs along with beta interferon; as well as the anti-malarials chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin. Another arm of the trial is also starting on Friday in Spain. The SOLIDARITY Trial began as global case counts surpassed half a million, and total deaths surged over 26,000. “These are tragic numbers,” said Dr Tedros. Some countries are already administering the medications ad-hoc on a compassionate use basis, as well as stockpiling for future mass use. But WHO’s Dr Tedros has cautioned against widespread use of such treatments without strong evidence – following media reports of people self-medicating with the substances or ones similarly named. One man in the United States, for instance, died after ingesting chloroquine phosphate, a chemical used in aquarium cleaning, following US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, according to the Associated Press. “We call on individuals and countries to refrain from using therapeutics that have not been demonstrated to be effective in the treatment of COVID-19,” said Dr Tedros. “The history of medicine is strewn with examples of drugs that worked on paper, or in a test tube, but didn’t work in humans or were actually harmful.” In one example, he said that “during the most recent Ebola epidemic, for example, some medicines that were thought to be effective were found not to be as effective as other medicines when they were compared during a clinical trial. “We must follow the evidence. There are no short-cuts.” Contrary to WHO’s cautious approach, a prominent bioethicist suggested a radical approach to fast-tracking vaccine development – purposefully infecting young healthy volunteers with the virus and seeing whether the vaccine protects against infection. In a preprint paper, Director of the Center for Population–Level Bioethics (CPLB) at Rutgers University Nir Eyal suggested that despite placing participants at risk of “severe disease and death”, such a ‘human challenge’ study design could “subtract many months” from the vaccine licensure process, reducing the global burden of coronavirus morbidity and mortality. COVID-19 cases worldwide as of Friday evening. Numbers change rapidly. Image Credits: NIAID. Posts navigation Older postsNewer posts