The UN climate summit marking the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement to keep global warming under 1.5 °C ended in trademark UN fashion: a text laying out next steps to speak about plans to agree to make more plans.

The package of voluntary measures dubbed the “Global Mutirão,” Portuguese for collective effort, nixed any mention of fossil fuels and failed to include a deforestation roadmap backed by over 90 nations, exposing deep fractures in global climate diplomacy. More than half of the nearly 200 nations in attendance opposed even non-binding language on oil, gas and coal phase-out despite scientific projections showing the world remains on track for 2.6 to 2.8 degrees Celsius of warming.

The health front scored several incremental victories. The outcome text included the first direct acknowledgement of the health benefits of mitigating emissions in a COP decision, while the Belém Health Action Plan – a voluntary policy package of best practices for adapting health systems to the climate crisis – was endorsed by about 10% of nations but received no money from governments.

The action plan also invites nations to report progress on health adaptation in their submissions to the Global Stocktake at COP33, making health adaptation part of countries’ official climate progress reporting for the first time.

“No one is saying this will be easy or we are on track,” UN Environment Programme Inger Andersen said after the summit. “We must do much more, move much faster. Escalating climate impacts continue that spare no nation.”

Fossil fuel, deforestation roadmaps to be developed outside the UN process

In the closing days of the conference, more than 80 developed and developing countries, led by the United Kingdom and the European Union, had backed a COP commitment to developing a “fossil fuel roadmap” as well as a reference to “fossil fuel transition” in the outcome document. The group of nations backing the language combined represent just 7% of global fossil fuel production.

“I cannot contradict science,” said Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who hosted the COP16 biodiversity talks in Cali last year. “It is not clearly stated, as science says, that the cause of the climate crisis is the fossil fuels used by capital. If that is not said, everything else is hypocrisy.”

Over 90 countries also supported a roadmap on halting and reversing deforestation, including recognition of wildfires as a major source of climate emissions that need more sustainable management. Forest fires represent 20% of global black carbon emissions, both a super pollutant and a major source of air pollution.

The combined pressures of those alliances failed to move the powerful bloc of the world’s major oil-producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, Russia and their allies, which threatened to collapse negotiations if fossil fuels were mentioned in the deal. Ultimately, over 100 nations – a clear majority – declined to support the roadmaps pushed by Brazil’s COP30 Presidency.

The stand-off on fossil fuels and deforestation places significant pressure on the remainder of the Brazilian COP presidency to deliver on these two roadmaps and bring more countries on board by COP31 in Antalya, Turkey.

COP President André Corrêa do Lago announced that Brazil would instead lead the development of the two roadmaps outside the formal UN COP negotiating process. A “First International Conference for the Phase-out of Fossil Fuels” will be held in Colombia in 2026, he said to applause as the conference ended Saturday evening, after an entire day of delays.

Meanwhile, the US did not participate in the talks for the first time in history. As fire burned through the COP30 conference centre in its closing hours, US President Donald Trump proposed plans to drill new oil fields, emboldening opponents to the fossil fuel phase-out in Belém.

China, which now controls the majority of the green economy, declined to step into a leadership vacuum, instead joining the majority of nations in opposing the fossil fuel roadmap and declining to contribute to Brazil’s Tropical Forest Forever Facility. China also used its influence to push back against measures like the EU’s carbon border tax, which aims to protect European industries from imports of cheaper, carbon-intensive products.

In remarks to AFP after the talks, China’s vice environment minister Li Gao said China was “happy with the outcome,” calling it “success in a very difficult situation.”

Despite setbacks in addressing major drivers of the climate crisis, Brazilian officials sought to put a positive spin on the outcomes.

“I’m being very honest: I believe COP30 was very, very, very good,” do Lago said after gaveling the end of the summit at 8:44 p.m. Saturday, 22 November, some 27 hours after COP30’s planned finish on 21 November. “I’m really, really very happy.”

‘Our people are losing their lives’

In total, the “Belém package” contains 29 separate decisions spanning over 150 pages. But amid the sea of UN diplomatic language — “recalling,” “acknowledging,” “reaffirming” — there are no legally binding commitments.

The outcome text “recalls with concern” that carbon dioxide emissions account for 80%of the global carbon budget available to remain under 1.5 degrees Celsius and “recognises” that limiting warming to 1.5C “requires deep, rapid, and sustained” cuts to greenhouse gas emissions. It also sets out a voluntary process to begin making plans to start discussions on what to do next on fossil fuels.

For nations on the frontlines of the climate crisis, time is running out.

“Right now, our people are losing their lives and livelihoods from storms of unprecedented strength, which are being powered by warming seas. The truth is that our coral reefs, the lifeblood of our nation’s food systems, culture, and economies, are at a tipping point in dieback at 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said Palau environment minister Steven Victor on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States. “Forest ecosystems are at a tipping point. The window to protect lives and economies is closing.”

The text urges an array of other measures and reaffirms the importance of past COP deals, including the COP28 agreement in Dubai, which called for a “transition away” from fossil fuels, a key concession awarded to stop the European Union and other nations from vetoing the final deal.

“We’re living through complicated geopolitical times. So there is intrinsic value, no matter how difficult, to seek to come together,” EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said of the bloc’s retreat from a veto threat. “We’re not going to hide the fact we would have preferred to have more. And yet the world is what it is, the conference is what it is, and we do think this on balance is a step in the right direction.”

“I couldn’t call this COP a success,” French environment minister Monique Barbut added.

Finance delayed, forests forgotten

Nations also agreed to “call for” the goal of tripling finance for climate adaptation, billed as a key focus of the summit by the Brazilian presidency, but pushed the deadline back five years to 2035.

That will amount to $120 billion per year, counted as part of the $300 billion overall climate finance target agreed in Baku last year. As economists project the real needs of developing nations to fight the climate crisis at around $2.3 trillion per year, many frontline states wanted the $120 billion to be provided on top of the Baku target.

“Every country is now experiencing the impacts of climate change in real time,” said Jeni Miller of the Global Climate and Health Alliance. “Pushing out the delivery date compared to the 2030 timeline requested by developing countries means many more people will suffer, many more people will die.”

The final decision “further reaffirms the call on all actors to work together” to scale up total annual climate finance from governments and private sector sources to $1.3 trillion by 2035.

Both goals remain aspirational, with no significant finance pledges made throughout COP30.

“Wealthy countries showed up with big speeches, but once again failed to deliver on the most urgent need: real money to fund a fast and fair transition,” said Ilan Zugman of 350.org.

The Tropical Forest Forever Facility, billed by Brazil as a highlight of the summit, also underwhelmed. It received support from just 50 nations, with only five contributing significant resources to the project, totalling $6.6 billion.

While that number dwarfs the funding of other widely hailed but so far ineffectual funds, including the Loss & Damage Fund and the Cali Fund for Biodiversity, the unique structure of TFFF means it requires massive funding to become effective.

The fund works as a large endowment, relying on returns on its base capital to generate returns for governments and private investors that contribute to it. At current funding levels, the TFFF stands to generate around $3 million per year for each tropical forest nation – a 96% decrease from its target value, which would require an additional $120 billion to achieve.

Health co-benefits get a nod

For the first time, the final COP decision text formally recognised “the economic and social benefits and opportunities of climate action, including economic growth, job creation, improved energy access and security, and improved public health.”

The inclusion of language on health is the product of more than 20 years of health-focused assessments on the co-benefits to health of climate mitigation, including the potential to save millions of lives a year by reducing air pollution from fossil fuels, as well as health gains from more sustainable diets and access to more physical activity in greener cities.

The Clean Air Fund welcomed the COP30 outcome text’s acknowledgement as “a step in the right direction”, but said governments need to go further to put health at the heart of climate negotiations next year. “It is essential that adaptation and mitigation consider climate change and health,” the Clean Air Fund said.

Global health leaders, including WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, have called for health to be included in formal negotiations at future COPs.

Belém health plan launches

Brazil Wins Limited Backing for COP30 Climate-Health Plan, But Nations Commit No Finance

Following a modest victory at COP29 in Baku last year to maintain health as a parallel track to official negotiations, there was hope that momentum could continue to build.

That happened – sort of. The Belém Health Action Plan, co-authored by the Brazilian COP30 presidency and the World Health Organisation, received limited political support, garnering endorsements from around two dozen nations of the 195 in attendance in Belém.

The voluntary plan represents a menu of best practice policies on adapting the health sector to the impacts of climate change, which is projected to cause up to 15.6 million additional deaths and incur health costs of $15.4 trillion by 2050, according to World Bank data.

The Action Plan also invites nations to submit data, plans and progress on health sector adaptation as part of national submissions to the UN “stocktake” process, which takes place every five years. While this reporting remains voluntary, it represents incremental progress in moving health’s relationship to climate change away from the sidelines and closer to the core official negotiations.

The plan received no financial support from governments despite backing from European Union states and other high-income nations, including Japan, Canada and the United Kingdom. Philanthropies committed a $300 million one-time grant to support measures outlined in the plan.

The finance gap remaining is insurmountable, for now, threatening to undermine the real-world impact of the action plan. The UNFCCC estimates global health adaptation needs at $26.8 to $29.4 billion per year by 2050, compared to current flows between $500 and $700 million.

“The Belém Health Action Plan has excellent advice for adapting health systems to climate change,” said Dr Courtney Howard of the Global Climate and Health Alliance. “However, given the current severity of impacts, it is clear that even in a high-income country, we cannot adapt in a healthy way to the emissions trajectory we are on. The infrastructure, supply chains and workforce that high-quality healthcare depends on will fray.”

Bending the emissions curve

World Falls Far Short of Methane Cut Targets Halfway to 2030 Deadline

Outside the formal negotiations, climate and health activists saw momentum on super pollutants, with new initiatives to cut black carbon and methane.

A methane summit prior to COP saw countries express renewed commitment to reducing methane in the global fossil fuel sector, while the NOW! (No Organic Waste) Initiative highlighted efforts to reduce methane emissions from organic waste, another key sector needed to deliver the Global Methane Pledge.

Words have yet to translate into momentum, however, as the first stocktake of methane emissions since a landmark pledge backed by over 160 countries to cut the super pollutant at COP26 in Glasgow by the UN Environment Programme found the world is far behind the 30% target set for 2030, on course to deliver just a fourth of promised reductions.

Methane is an important precursor to tropospheric ozone, a potent air pollutant that harms human health. However, other tropospheric ozone precursors received limited attention, revealing a gap in climate accounting.

Nine countries made a first-of-its-kind announcement to tackle major sources of black carbon emissions, which harm health through air pollution and accelerates snowmelt in the Himalayas and other mountain glacier systems. The small alliance published national policies and sectoral actions on black carbon and agreed to collaborate through a peer network on technical exchange, shared learning, and joint advocacy.

“Cutting super pollutants is our emergency brake on near-term warming. We can avoid 0.6 °C of warming by 2050 by tackling super pollutants, such as methane, black carbon and tropospheric ozone, while reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The increased attention on super pollutants at COP30 shows ambition on climate and health is growing,” said Jane Burston, CEO of Clean Air Fund.

Accelerating towards 2.6 °C

The summit also launched a “Belém accelerator” programme to address why countries are not meeting the plans they already committed to, known as nationally determined contributions. The final decision calls for bending the emissions curve “based on the full implementation” of the latest NDCs.

Those targets, if fully implemented, would set the world on course for around 2.6 °C of warming — reducing emissions by just 12% of the 55% cut required by 2035 to hit 1.5 °C, according to a UNEP assessment ahead of the summit. More than 70 nations did not file NDCs at all.

“The talk of the COP has been to ’embrace science’ and move away from negotiations to focus on implementation,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, which produces the Climate Action Tracker report. “There is a massive risk that the outcome of COP30 will just leave countries to ‘implement’ policies that will warm the Earth to 2.6 °C.”

“There is no point in ’embracing the science’ if it’s not acted on, just as there is no point agreeing to global energy goals if they’re not implemented,” Hare added.

With no binding commitments placed on countries and an array of passive language used throughout the final decision, the text represents a lowest common denominator of what words can be put on a page.

But in a fractured world, that means something, the UN chief said.

“This shows that multilateralism is alive, and that nations can still come together to confront the defining challenges no country can solve alone,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “But COPs are consensus-based — and in a period of geopolitical divides, consensus is ever harder to reach. I cannot pretend that COP30 has delivered everything that is needed.”

Consensus under fire 

The victory of the constellation of petrostates and their allies at COP30 marks the second time in recent months that a similar alliance has derailed ambitious climate negotiations. 

The alliance of Like-Minded Developing Countries torpedoed the Plastics Treaty process in Geneva in August, sticking firm to red lines so watered down that countries championing an agreement deemed it better to walk away than pass a final text.

The successive failures have shone a spotlight on the viability of consensus-based UN negotiations, which require every nation’s sign-on to be agreed. That structure leaves ambitious countries with no choice but to compromise or leave empty-handed, while nations attempting to stymie progress have no incentive to change their stance.

“The traditional COP model is under serious strain in a fractured, multipolar world, particularly from countries prepared to sacrifice the well-being of the world for fossil fuel interests,” Hare said.

Some observers said the UNFCCC process has run its course. “This is an empty deal,” said Nikki Reisch, director of climate at the Center for International Environmental Law. “COP30 provides a stark reminder that the answers to the climate crisis do not lie inside the climate talks – they lie with the people and movements leading the way toward a just, equitable, fossil-free future.”

“While the countries most responsible for pushing the planet to the brink point fingers, dig in their heels, and tighten their purse strings, the world burns,” Reisch said. “That’s why governments committed to tackling the crisis at its source are uniting to move forward outside the UNFCCC — under the leadership of Colombia and Pacific Island states — to phase out fossil fuels rapidly, equitably, and in line with 1.5°C.”

UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell defended the process after the deal was gavelled through.

“I understand the various frustrations of different groups on different issues. Many countries want to move faster on fossil fuels, finance and responding to spiralling climate disasters,” Stiell said. ​​“Certainly, if you look inside these halls, you may raise questions, but if you look at the signals that are sent over the past 30 COPS to the real world, they are there.” 

“With or without navigation aids our direction is clear, the shift from fossil fuels to renewables and resilience is unstoppable. We’re building day by day, step by step, COP by COP, a better world for billions more people in every part of the world.”

Next year’s COP31 will take place in Antalya, Turkey, with Australia serving as “president of negotiations” in an unprecedented power-sharing arrangement.

Image Credits: COP30, Stefan Anderson.